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2008 $35,000 Subscriber Contest (2 Viewers)

Clawing my way back up to the cut line. I'm up to 123 now with Jackson and Boss still accumulating points and Warner (-25.8) still to go. It's going to be interesting.

 
229.75 with warner (-41), boldin (-18.5), and rackers (-3)

On to next week with a rested portis and colston back from the dead.

 
:rant:

If FantasyStart's estimate is right, things aren't looking good.

Currently at 133.75 + Warner (-42.5 so he almost certainly won't help) and Breaston (-6.9) and DJackson still going and counting for me. My best hope is DJ scores another TD.

:thumbup:

 
RenegadeGM said:
Brandon Jacobs is giving me life here. A second TD would be great.
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Wow - Jacobs has me up to 149 and holding on. I just may make it another week after all.I wish I had Warner about now. The one thing that I seem to notice is a lot of people posting have Cutler and Warner. Cutler scored so well that Warner will probably not count for those owners. I'll be among the few hoping he doesn't light it up tomorrow... but he is at home vs SF... he WILL light it up.
 
OU#1 said:
131.10 with Warner (-7.2), my flex left of either Breaston or DeSean (-3.3), and SF D (-8.0).Not feeling too confident but if I somehow make it it'll weed out other Slaton, Rice, CJ4.2, and Steve Smith owners.If it wasn't for Peterson, Mark Bradley, and Dustin Keller I'd be toast already. Jonathan Stewart and McFadden being dead weight will probably do me in.
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146.30 with Warner (-7.2), Breaston (-11.2), and SF D (-8.0). Thanks DeSean!Still waiting for the official pre-MNF word before I start counting my blessings.
 
This was supposed to be a cakewalk week for me. Only two players on bye and two injuries with none at the same position left me at almost full strength.

But then there was the Slaton-Rice-CJ3 trifecta which stuck me with a 3.4 at my RB2 spot. Then Steve Smith gives me a nice 1.9 and my TE1, Shockey, gets a 4.6.....

But HELLO Thomas Jones, Dustin Keller, Kevin Walter and Deshaun Jackson! Plus Brees' garbage TD gave me a solid score at QB.

So now I'm sitting at 156.6 with Warner (-31.0), Fitzgerald (-4.6) and Rackers (-6.0) left to go. I'm probably safe where I'm at now, but anything at all from Fitz and/or a decent game by Rackers makes it a sure thing.

Still it was much too close for what I thought was a solid team this week.

 
DeSean put me at 169.55 and done, onward to week 11. Boy, was I worried after the early games though, even with Cutler, Marshall, and Prater from Thursday night.

 
150.7 now with Warner -11.2 & Edge -3.4 (don't even know why I list him lol)Scary but at least on the right side of the cut line.

Alberta Clipper said:
My first tough test this week. 127 with Warner (-11.2), LJ Smith, DeS Jackson (-2.9), Phi DT (-10) and Edge (if he's playing -3.4).Would be a great week for LJS to play for some job security (wishfull thinking)The surprise of my team lately has been Dawson - I thought I might never count his scores but have used him 5x in a row.
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FUBAR said:
:tfp:If FantasyStart's estimate is right, things aren't looking good.Currently at 133.75 + Warner (-42.5 so he almost certainly won't help) and Breaston (-6.9) and DJackson still going and counting for me. My best hope is DJ scores another TD. :unsure:
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Thanks DeSean for putting me over the FS projected cutoff, but it's not by much. How accurate is that projection usually?Currently at 140.65 (1 point above the cut) + Warner (-42.5 so he almost certainly won't help) and Breaston (-6.9) Is it too much to hope for a bad game from Warner and a great game by Breaston?
 
Looking ahead at week 11 matchups (ranked by Clayton's SoS)...

QB

Jake Delhomme vs DET - very nice

Kurt Warner @ SEA - very nice

Jay Cutler @ ATL - average

RB

Ricky Williams vs OAK - very nice

Steve Slaton @ IND - very nice

Clinton Portis vs DAL - average

Maurice Jones-Drew vs TEN - slightly below average

Leon Washington @ NE - below average

Maurice Morris vs ARI - tough

Ray Rice @ NYG - very tough

WR

Steve Breaston @ SEA - very nice

Steve Smith vs DET - very nice

Jerricho Cotchery @ NE - very nice

Derrick Mason @ NYG - above average

Brandon Marshall @ ATL - average

Reggie Williams vs TEN - very tough

TE

Tony Gonzalez vs NO - average

Dustin Keller @ NE - very tough

K

Kris Brown @ IND - very nice

Jason Hanson @ CAR - very tough

D

Dolphins vs OAK - very nice

Jets @ NE - above average

Team has stayed pretty healthy thus far. I heard Derrick Mason played through a separated shoulder yesterday. Not alot of very tough matchups in week 11, but you never know.

 
A 30 point Warner night adds about 9 right now, 20 from Breaston adds about 3, 20 from Fitz or Bolden adds 1-2. I'd guess that if ARI has a decent night the cut rises 10-15, mostly dependent on Warner's points.

 
ctriopelle said:
A 30 point Warner night adds about 9 right now, 20 from Breaston adds about 3, 20 from Fitz or Bolden adds 1-2. I'd guess that if ARI has a decent night the cut rises 10-15, mostly dependent on Warner's points.
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Based on your estimates, and with Ryan's 24 points putting me 5 points over the current cut line, I either need an awful night from Warner (so the cut doesn't go up) or a great night. Looks like my "break even" point for him is about 35 or 36 points. Below that and the cut rises more than my score. Above that, my score goes up more than the cut line does. Of course, it would help if his TD's are to Breaston.......
 
It sure would be nice to get Nugent back soon as one of these weeks having only Jason Hanson at kicker is going to kill me. Fortunately I am safe for this week despite only 2 points at kicker. I think the Jets kicker had at least 17 points this week. I also need Marion Barber to return to stud status now that Romo is coming back. Thomas Jones/Jamal Lewis & Ricky Williams all stepped up in his absence this week and Slaton has been huge most weeks. McNabb/Warner have been a great combo at QB. Fitz/Calvin Johnson/DeSean have carried me most weeks at WR with a little help from Driver.

I feel pretty good about making it at least to week 11 in my first attempt at this contest.

 
apalmer said:
ctriopelle said:
A 30 point Warner night adds about 9 right now, 20 from Breaston adds about 3, 20 from Fitz or Bolden adds 1-2. I'd guess that if ARI has a decent night the cut rises 10-15, mostly dependent on Warner's points.
Click to expand...
Based on your estimates, and with Ryan's 24 points putting me 5 points over the current cut line, I either need an awful night from Warner (so the cut doesn't go up) or a great night. Looks like my "break even" point for him is about 35 or 36 points. Below that and the cut rises more than my score. Above that, my score goes up more than the cut line does. Of course, it would help if his TD's are to Breaston.......
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20 out of Warner bumps about 4 points. I'd suspect that 5 points to Breaston gets you in with the short spread between Warner's bump that hurts you and that which helps you. Basically, you need to pull for Breaston to have a nice night (even a few catches for 30 yards), because that's the score that will help you the most without also driving the cut up too.
 
139.90 with Warner -5.60 left ..... I'm feeling pretty good I think.

Thanks to Boss and Jacobs last night, I was dead going into that game last night.

 
140.9 with Warner's points all in. If I advanced, it's thanks to Keller and Ted Ginn. I would say the best money I spent in this contest (other than Warner) is for Kevin Walter. I've used him 7 weeks out of 10 thus far. He has been rock solid this year. And welcome to the party Ricky Williams! Glad you could finally contribute!

ETA: Wonder how many Portis/Rice/Slaton owners get the hook this week?

 
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166.4 with Warner (-31.1) V. Davis (11.2) and Niners D (-3) yet to play.

It looks like I survived my stupid gameplanning of having both Portis and MB3 on byes the same week. I'd like to thank Dustin Keller and Ricky Williams for coming out of nowhere.

 
143.9 with Warner almost guaranteed to count (-5.6 thanks to a rousing performance by Delhomme).

If Jason Hill can find the endzone, I'll get to bump up that score a bit more too (-6.7).

 
Doug Drinen said:
Unofficial pre-MNF cut: 135.60
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Thank you! I think I'm safe at 150.4 with Warner (-25.8) still to go.And thank you to the NY TEs. On a week when Owen Daniels went MIA, Keller got me 25.7 and Boss got me 21.9. That's the only reason I'm moving on.It would really be nice if FWP could finally get healthy.
 
Drunken Cowboy said:
Doug Drinen said:
Unofficial pre-MNF cut: 135.60
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Who out there besides Warner can really move this cut?
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Of the 2300 that are still alive:QB - Kurt Warner is owned by 1701RB - Frank Gore is owned by 92, Edgerrin James is owned by 43WR - Steve Breaston is owned by 399, Larry Fitzgerald is owned by 318, Anquan Boldin is owned by 149, Isaac Bruce is owned by 133, Bryant Johnson is owned by 93, Jason Hill is owned by 60TE - Vernon Davis is owned by 138, Leonard Pope is owned by 50K - Neil Rackers is owned by 171, Joe Nedney is owned by 158D - SF D is owned by 240, ARI D is owned by 44Look like the only ones that may move the cutline a lot are Warner, Gore (rare player, but expensive, so those who have him may be using all his pts), all 3 ARI WR's, and Vernon Davis (another rare player, but likely to be TE1 for many who own him). As always, K's and D's will have an impact is they explode.
 
Dirty Weasel said:
Drunken Cowboy said:
Doug Drinen said:
Unofficial pre-MNF cut: 135.60
Click to expand...
Who out there besides Warner can really move this cut?
Click to expand...
Of the 2300 that are still alive:QB - Kurt Warner is owned by 1701RB - Frank Gore is owned by 92, Edgerrin James is owned by 43WR - Steve Breaston is owned by 399, Larry Fitzgerald is owned by 318, Anquan Boldin is owned by 149, Isaac Bruce is owned by 133, Bryant Johnson is owned by 93, Jason Hill is owned by 60TE - Vernon Davis is owned by 138, Leonard Pope is owned by 50K - Neil Rackers is owned by 171, Joe Nedney is owned by 158D - SF D is owned by 240, ARI D is owned by 44Look like the only ones that may move the cutline a lot are Warner, Gore (rare player, but expensive, so those who have him may be using all his pts), all 3 ARI WR's, and Vernon Davis (another rare player, but likely to be TE1 for many who own him). As always, K's and D's will have an impact is they explode.
Click to expand...
I'd disagree with a few of these, but your logic isn't that bad. While Gore and Davis may impact their owners a lot, they won't move the cut much strictly because they effect so few. 20 from Gore bumps the FS database about .9 pts, and Davis does about the same. SF Def @ 20 bumps about 1.5, ARI D about .5, Rackers about .4, Nedney about .9.
 
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ctriopelle said:
Dirty Weasel said:
Drunken Cowboy said:
Doug Drinen said:
Unofficial pre-MNF cut: 135.60
Click to expand...
Who out there besides Warner can really move this cut?
Click to expand...
Of the 2300 that are still alive:QB - Kurt Warner is owned by 1701RB - Frank Gore is owned by 92, Edgerrin James is owned by 43WR - Steve Breaston is owned by 399, Larry Fitzgerald is owned by 318, Anquan Boldin is owned by 149, Isaac Bruce is owned by 133, Bryant Johnson is owned by 93, Jason Hill is owned by 60TE - Vernon Davis is owned by 138, Leonard Pope is owned by 50K - Neil Rackers is owned by 171, Joe Nedney is owned by 158D - SF D is owned by 240, ARI D is owned by 44Look like the only ones that may move the cutline a lot are Warner, Gore (rare player, but expensive, so those who have him may be using all his pts), all 3 ARI WR's, and Vernon Davis (another rare player, but likely to be TE1 for many who own him). As always, K's and D's will have an impact is they explode.
Click to expand...
I'd disagree with a few of these, but your logic isn't that bad. While Gore and Davis may impact their owners a lot, they won't move the cut much strictly because they effect so few. 20 from Gore bumps the FS database about .9 pts, and Davis does about the same. SF Def @ 20 bumps about 1.5, ARI D about .5, Rackers about .4, Nedney about .9.
Click to expand...
What would 25 by Warner move it?
 
150.3 using Ryan, but still have Warner. I think that it's my worst week yet thanks to Barber's bye week plus the horrific week from Slaton and Chris Johnson. I hope it's good enough to squeak by.

 
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