What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

2008 $35,000 Subscriber Contest (1 Viewer)

I am 3 points off the pace with CJ (-8.8) tonight, I'm hoping for a little love tonight.

Who are the other highly owned players that could move the cut significantly?

 
I am 3 points off the pace with CJ (-8.8) tonight, I'm hoping for a little love tonight.Who are the other highly owned players that could move the cut significantly?
Manning - 19.87%Rhodes - 27.85%Addai - 11.03% (still out?)Wayne - 22.02%Harrison - 27.16%Clark - 25.52%Indy D - 26.03%White - 29.57%Johnson - 45.5%Titan D - 34.53%
 
Nice week. I am too lazy to add mine up, but I think I am OK. I have skated to the next week 3 times by less than 10 points, once by 0.2. Warner....Portis/R Williams/Slaton....Moss/Megatron/Stallworth....LJ Smith/Keller.....Kasey....KC Cheifs......I was a bit worried with Steven Jackson and Berrian off, but Stallworth somehow found the endzone. This is the longest I have ever made it.
 
I am 3 points off the pace with CJ (-8.8) tonight, I'm hoping for a little love tonight.

Who are the other highly owned players that could move the cut significantly?
Manning - 19.87%Rhodes - 27.85%

Addai - 11.03% (still out?)

Wayne - 22.02%

Harrison - 27.16%

Clark - 25.52%

Indy D - 26.03%

White - 29.57%

Johnson - 45.5%

Titan D - 34.53%
:goodposting: Where'd you get those numbers from? They dont seem consistent with these or these.

 
Cruising right now with 189.05 without Cutler or Marshall this week. Chris Johnson (-8) and the TEN DT (-8) could still score.

Projecting getting points from CJ, my weekly usage goes like this:

Used 8 times: Cooley

Used 7 times: --

Used 6 times: S Moss

Used 5 times: Forte, C Johnson, Slaton, Marshall, Walter,

Used 4 times: Rivers, Mojo Drew, T Jones, Ginn, Eagles D

Used 3 times: Jenkins, Josh Brown, Suisham, Titans D

Used 2 times: Cutler, Roethlisberger, Gage, Gould

Used 1 times: Jets D

Wasted money: Ben Watson

Losing Philip Rivers next week, but should be OK with Roethlisberger and Cutler at QB.

Week 10 is going to be dicey, I'm afraid. Losing S Moss (used 6 times), Cooley (used 8 times) and Suisham. I have two other kickers, so Suisham won't be as big a loss. Cooley will really hurt if I'm close because Ben Watson (slacker) is the my only other TE.

See ya'll in week 9.

 
I am 3 points off the pace with CJ (-8.8) tonight, I'm hoping for a little love tonight.

Who are the other highly owned players that could move the cut significantly?
Manning - 19.87%Rhodes - 27.85%

Addai - 11.03% (still out?)

Wayne - 22.02%

Harrison - 27.16%

Clark - 25.52%

Indy D - 26.03%

White - 29.57%

Johnson - 45.5%

Titan D - 34.53%
:lmao: Where'd you get those numbers from? They dont seem consistent with these or these.
Did I misinterpret the stats querier? I'll be the first to admit that me and math are like oil and water, or maybe cats and water. Or maybe even oily cats and water.I searched for the teams still alive with player X, and took the survival rate as the percentage of owners who were still alive that owned that player. So, Addai had 408 total teams with 45 still alive for a percentage of 11.03.

Oops :lmao: I think I just saw my own error. That's a percentage of total ownership, not of only teams that are still alive. Oh well, back to being the grammar police.

 
I am 3 points off the pace with CJ (-8.8) tonight, I'm hoping for a little love tonight.

Who are the other highly owned players that could move the cut significantly?
Manning - 19.87%Rhodes - 27.85%

Addai - 11.03% (still out?)

Wayne - 22.02%

Harrison - 27.16%

Clark - 25.52%

Indy D - 26.03%

White - 29.57%

Johnson - 45.5%

Titan D - 34.53%
:confused: Where'd you get those numbers from? They dont seem consistent with these or these.
Did I misinterpret the stats querier? I'll be the first to admit that me and math are like oil and water, or maybe cats and water. Or maybe even oily cats and water.I searched for the teams still alive with player X, and took the survival rate as the percentage of owners who were still alive that owned that player. So, Addai had 408 total teams with 45 still alive for a percentage of 11.03.

Oops :bag: I think I just saw my own error. That's a percentage of total ownership, not of only teams that are still alive. Oh well, back to being the grammar police.
Can anyone correct Patrick's numbers (site is blocked for me :( )?I know I need Johnson to put up 25+ points, but I 'd also like to know who I need to root against...

Thanks!

 
ctriopelle said:
levinakl said:
per Fantasy Star, in the clubhouse at 160.65... (I think I will lose .6 for Steve Smith's (CAR) negative rushing yards), but I feel that should still let me make the cut at 160.05...

I'm shocked they have the projected cut at 143, but I have no science behind it, just my opinion and knowledge of all the Cutler/Romo, etc owners that had players missing.
The science is pretty basic in that we calculate the scores of all the live teams that we extracted from the database back when we started projections, and then use some simple statistics formulas for normal distributions to find the Xth percentile of the our live scores. (where x is the % being cut this week). It should work fantastically with the live sample size we have (currently 214 teams), but unfortunately, our sample isn't exactly random (it is populated with teams that tend to be more successful than the general contest), and that causes accuracy problems. There is also no guarantee that every live team in the database is a real team in the contest, as some people have admittedly entered what-if variations of their team (and we don't know what ones those are). All we could check for was that the roster was valid at the time of submission (about 100 of the original 500+ were not). I also have never updated the sample to include recently added teams, because it is a several hour task to reformat the database to allow me to score every team simultaneously.Most weeks the result is pretty close, and if nothing else, it gives a general idea for whether or not scoring is higher or lower for a given week. Once DD gives us insight into where the pre-MNF cut is, I can also use an adjustment factor that has given us decent accuracy in estimating the MNF cut right after the game is over.

I also feel the 143 number is pretty high, but remember that we are cutting 22.5% of teams this week and that is the most to date. There are also only 4 teams on bye this week (due to the HOU reschedule), and that gives us more players to help offset the injuries.

Whatever DD's pre-MNF cut is, this week should give us a 5-10 point rise at most from his number. With 2 extra teams going already, rosters should be more full than usual. Someone will also probably post the highest %owned numbers for tomorrow too, so that people close to the cut can figure out who is going to advance things the fastest.

eta...I was typing this response as DD put his number on the thread. You can be pretty confident if you're over 150 based on his reply, and 145 will probably fly...
149 would be a 15 point rise above DD's unofficial preMNF cutoff; have we seen a 15 point rise this year / last year? Last week's rise was tiny; no?
 
Can anyone correct Patrick's numbers (site is blocked for me :unsure: )?I know I need Johnson to put up 25+ points, but I 'd also like to know who I need to root against...Thanks!
Johnson is the only player of significance from a quick scan, he's on 27.3% of live rosters. All the rest look to be below 5%. If you need Johnson to put up 25, the cut will move some due to him, but I still wouldn't expect anywhere close to a 10 point jump tonight. Based on the FS database outputs, 5 points of movement will take some pretty high scores.
 
149 would be a 15 point rise above DD's unofficial preMNF cutoff; have we seen a 15 point rise this year / last year? Last week's rise was tiny; no?
Yeah, I typed that up before I ran scoring projections for tonight's game in the model. Using Dodds' projections for tonight's players, the jump looks more like 3 points. As I mentioned in the post above, Johnson looks like the only player for bubble teams to be terribly concerned with, he's on almost 1/3 of rosters.Last week had the ingredients for a big jump, but the Broncos basically got shut down on offense compared to expectations. I haven't looked at future MNF schedules, but it all comes down to how many under the cut teams get help from MNF players. Bye weeks, low scores, and popular MNF players all contribute to this. Since scoring is already pretty decent this week, and the majority of players tonight are pretty uncommon, this week looks like a low rise.
 
Can anyone correct Patrick's numbers (site is blocked for me :lmao: )?I know I need Johnson to put up 25+ points, but I 'd also like to know who I need to root against...Thanks!
Johnson is the only player of significance from a quick scan, he's on 27.3% of live rosters. All the rest look to be below 5%. If you need Johnson to put up 25, the cut will move some due to him, but I still wouldn't expect anywhere close to a 10 point jump tonight. Based on the FS database outputs, 5 points of movement will take some pretty high scores.
That gives a little bit of hope since I am done with 140.15.
 
I am 3 points off the pace with CJ (-8.8) tonight, I'm hoping for a little love tonight.

Who are the other highly owned players that could move the cut significantly?
Manning - 19.87%Rhodes - 27.85%

Addai - 11.03% (still out?)

Wayne - 22.02%

Harrison - 27.16%

Clark - 25.52%

Indy D - 26.03%

White - 29.57%

Johnson - 45.5%

Titan D - 34.53%
Here are the real percentages of all IND and TEN players for teams still alive...QB - Vince Young (2.4%), Peyton Manning (2.2%)

RB - Chris Johnson (27.3%), Dominic Rhodes (4.9%), LenDale White (2.2%), Joseph Addai (1.1%)

WR - Marvin Harrison (8.5%), Anthony Gonzalez (5.9%), Justin Gage (4.7%), Reggie Wayne (1.8%), Justin McCareins (0.8%), Brandon Jones (0.8%), Paul Williams (0.6%), Lavelle Hawkins (0.3%), Roy Hall (0.1%)

TE - Alge Crumpler (10.1%), Dallas Clark (1.8%), Bo Scaife (1.7%)

K - Rob Bironas (7.2%), Adam Vinatieri (2.6%)

D - TEN (8.9%), IND (4.3%)

And below is a contest stat link, as well as a contest querier link. It's a good idea to add them to your favorites.

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2008/stats.php

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/c...uerier_form.php

 
I am 3 points off the pace with CJ (-8.8) tonight, I'm hoping for a little love tonight.

Who are the other highly owned players that could move the cut significantly?
Manning - 19.87%Rhodes - 27.85%

Addai - 11.03% (still out?)

Wayne - 22.02%

Harrison - 27.16%

Clark - 25.52%

Indy D - 26.03%

White - 29.57%

Johnson - 45.5%

Titan D - 34.53%
Here are the real percentages of all IND and TEN players for teams still alive...QB - Vince Young (2.4%), Peyton Manning (2.2%)

RB - Chris Johnson (27.3%), Dominic Rhodes (4.9%), LenDale White (2.2%), Joseph Addai (1.1%)

WR - Marvin Harrison (8.5%), Anthony Gonzalez (5.9%), Justin Gage (4.7%), Reggie Wayne (1.8%), Justin McCareins (0.8%), Brandon Jones (0.8%), Paul Williams (0.6%), Lavelle Hawkins (0.3%), Roy Hall (0.1%)

TE - Alge Crumpler (10.1%), Dallas Clark (1.8%), Bo Scaife (1.7%)

K - Rob Bironas (7.2%), Adam Vinatieri (2.6%)

D - TEN (8.9%), IND (4.3%)

And below is a contest stat link, as well as a contest querier link. It's a good idea to add them to your favorites.

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2008/stats.php

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/c...uerier_form.php
I did use the querier but, either something's not working right, or I'm not understanding it. Really, I don't think you can this info out of it because, whether I ask it for live teams, dead teams or all teams, I get the same stats at the top, which is a percentage of all teams regardless of whether or not they're still alive.So, I should've been looking at the stat page instead of the querier, my mistake.

 
I am 3 points off the pace with CJ (-8.8) tonight, I'm hoping for a little love tonight.

Who are the other highly owned players that could move the cut significantly?
Manning - 19.87%Rhodes - 27.85%

Addai - 11.03% (still out?)

Wayne - 22.02%

Harrison - 27.16%

Clark - 25.52%

Indy D - 26.03%

White - 29.57%

Johnson - 45.5%

Titan D - 34.53%
Here are the real percentages of all IND and TEN players for teams still alive...QB - Vince Young (2.4%), Peyton Manning (2.2%)

RB - Chris Johnson (27.3%), Dominic Rhodes (4.9%), LenDale White (2.2%), Joseph Addai (1.1%)

WR - Marvin Harrison (8.5%), Anthony Gonzalez (5.9%), Justin Gage (4.7%), Reggie Wayne (1.8%), Justin McCareins (0.8%), Brandon Jones (0.8%), Paul Williams (0.6%), Lavelle Hawkins (0.3%), Roy Hall (0.1%)

TE - Alge Crumpler (10.1%), Dallas Clark (1.8%), Bo Scaife (1.7%)

K - Rob Bironas (7.2%), Adam Vinatieri (2.6%)

D - TEN (8.9%), IND (4.3%)

And below is a contest stat link, as well as a contest querier link. It's a good idea to add them to your favorites.

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2008/stats.php

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/c...uerier_form.php
I did use the querier but, either something's not working right, or I'm not understanding it. Really, I don't think you can this info out of it because, whether I ask it for live teams, dead teams or all teams, I get the same stats at the top, which is a percentage of all teams regardless of whether or not they're still alive.So, I should've been looking at the stat page instead of the querier, my mistake.
I did a quick query of my studs to see who had the combination of Brees, Slaton, Barber III, Marshall, and Steve Smith. Oddly enough, there were only 34 teams that had that combo, but 31 of them were still left. That's a pretty dang high survival rate.
 
I am 3 points off the pace with CJ (-8.8) tonight, I'm hoping for a little love tonight.

Who are the other highly owned players that could move the cut significantly?
Manning - 19.87%Rhodes - 27.85%

Addai - 11.03% (still out?)

Wayne - 22.02%

Harrison - 27.16%

Clark - 25.52%

Indy D - 26.03%

White - 29.57%

Johnson - 45.5%

Titan D - 34.53%
Here are the real percentages of all IND and TEN players for teams still alive...QB - Vince Young (2.4%), Peyton Manning (2.2%)

RB - Chris Johnson (27.3%), Dominic Rhodes (4.9%), LenDale White (2.2%), Joseph Addai (1.1%)

WR - Marvin Harrison (8.5%), Anthony Gonzalez (5.9%), Justin Gage (4.7%), Reggie Wayne (1.8%), Justin McCareins (0.8%), Brandon Jones (0.8%), Paul Williams (0.6%), Lavelle Hawkins (0.3%), Roy Hall (0.1%)

TE - Alge Crumpler (10.1%), Dallas Clark (1.8%), Bo Scaife (1.7%)

K - Rob Bironas (7.2%), Adam Vinatieri (2.6%)

D - TEN (8.9%), IND (4.3%)

And below is a contest stat link, as well as a contest querier link. It's a good idea to add them to your favorites.

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2008/stats.php

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/c...uerier_form.php
I did use the querier but, either something's not working right, or I'm not understanding it. Really, I don't think you can this info out of it because, whether I ask it for live teams, dead teams or all teams, I get the same stats at the top, which is a percentage of all teams regardless of whether or not they're still alive.So, I should've been looking at the stat page instead of the querier, my mistake.
I did a quick query of my studs to see who had the combination of Brees, Slaton, Barber III, Marshall, and Steve Smith. Oddly enough, there were only 34 teams that had that combo, but 31 of them were still left. That's a pretty dang high survival rate.
Wow. Who would have thunk teams with those 5 guys were doing well?
 
I did a quick query of my studs to see who had the combination of Brees, Slaton, Barber III, Marshall, and Steve Smith. Oddly enough, there were only 34 teams that had that combo, but 31 of them were still left. That's a pretty dang high survival rate.
My stud list of Romo/Portis/Marshall/Fitzgerald/Winslow is held by 2 teams, both of which are still alive...and I like that there is only one other guy to contend with here...
 
149 would be a 15 point rise above DD's unofficial preMNF cutoff; have we seen a 15 point rise this year / last year? Last week's rise was tiny; no?
Yeah, I typed that up before I ran scoring projections for tonight's game in the model. Using Dodds' projections for tonight's players, the jump looks more like 3 points. As I mentioned in the post above, Johnson looks like the only player for bubble teams to be terribly concerned with, he's on almost 1/3 of rosters.Last week had the ingredients for a big jump, but the Broncos basically got shut down on offense compared to expectations. I haven't looked at future MNF schedules, but it all comes down to how many under the cut teams get help from MNF players. Bye weeks, low scores, and popular MNF players all contribute to this. Since scoring is already pretty decent this week, and the majority of players tonight are pretty uncommon, this week looks like a low rise.
:blackdot: Thanks.
 
I did a quick query of my studs to see who had the combination of Brees, Slaton, Barber III, Marshall, and Steve Smith. Oddly enough, there were only 34 teams that had that combo, but 31 of them were still left. That's a pretty dang high survival rate.
My stud list of Romo/Portis/Marshall/Fitzgerald/Winslow is held by 2 teams, both of which are still alive...and I like that there is only one other guy to contend with here...
where can you check that? I looked on thefantasystar site, but couldn't figure out where I could put in my main players to check?
 
I did a quick query of my studs to see who had the combination of Brees, Slaton, Barber III, Marshall, and Steve Smith. Oddly enough, there were only 34 teams that had that combo, but 31 of them were still left. That's a pretty dang high survival rate.
My stud list of Romo/Portis/Marshall/Fitzgerald/Winslow is held by 2 teams, both of which are still alive...and I like that there is only one other guy to contend with here...
I'm the one and only person to have selected the combo of Brees/Barber/CJ3/Fitz/Smith and as such it has a 100% survival rate.
 
i'm the only one with Maurice Morris, Antwaan Randle El, Robbie Gould, Dustin Keller, and the Browns defense

just make that check out to me now :blackdot:

 
Me and one other entry left with Romo, Tomlinson, Westbrook, Slaton, Marshall, Steve Smith, Santana Moss, Bryant, Breaston, and Prater.

 
I did a quick query of my studs to see who had the combination of Brees, Slaton, Barber III, Marshall, and Steve Smith. Oddly enough, there were only 34 teams that had that combo, but 31 of them were still left. That's a pretty dang high survival rate.
My stud list of Romo/Portis/Marshall/Fitzgerald/Winslow is held by 2 teams, both of which are still alive...and I like that there is only one other guy to contend with here...
where can you check that? I looked on thefantasystar site, but couldn't figure out where I could put in my main players to check?
It's only been listed about 5 times in the last few pages of this thread, but here it is again:http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/c...uerier_form.php

 
I did a quick query of my studs to see who had the combination of Brees, Slaton, Barber III, Marshall, and Steve Smith. Oddly enough, there were only 34 teams that had that combo, but 31 of them were still left. That's a pretty dang high survival rate.
My stud list of Romo/Portis/Marshall/Fitzgerald/Winslow is held by 2 teams, both of which are still alive...and I like that there is only one other guy to contend with here...
where can you check that? I looked on thefantasystar site, but couldn't figure out where I could put in my main players to check?
It's only been listed about 5 times in the last few pages of this thread, but here it is again:http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/c...uerier_form.php
thanks
 
FUBAR said:
[icon] said:
160+ with Chris JOhnson going on MNF ;)
:thumbup: same here, I also have Crumpler but I doubt that will matter.Steve Smith and Warner had good weeks for me, and all of my other starters had more than 10 points, despite Marshall, Cutler, and Holmes being out. :)
179 with crumpler(10) and chris johnson(13)shneikes
 
Looking good for this week with:

Warner

Portis

Ricky

Calvin

S. Moss

Reg. Williams

Dem. Williams

Keller

Not liking my chances in the next few weeks with Reggie Bush out, Shockey injured, and Portis/SMoss on bye.

 
Combos that are unique to my team (I left off all players under $20 as well as combos of more than 5, because there would be too many):

Combos of 5

Maurice Jones-Drew, Clinton Portis, Brandon Marshall, Steve Smith, Jerricho Cotchery

Maurice Jones-Drew, Clinton Portis, Brandon Marshall, Steve Smith, Tony Gonzalez

Maurice Jones-Drew, Clinton Portis, Brandon Marshall, Jerricho Cotchery, Tony Gonzalez

Maurice Jones-Drew, Clinton Portis, Steve Smith, Jerricho Cotchery, Tony Gonzalez

Combo of 4

Maurice Jones-Drew, Clinton Portis, Steve Smith, Tony Gonzalez

 
I'm done! I absolutely didn't think this was the week to get me, but the combo of injuries and bye weeks was too much. Too bad because I really thought that I put together a deep team that could stick it out. Good luck to the guys that are still fighting.

 
Nice week. I am too lazy to add mine up, but I think I am OK. I have skated to the next week 3 times by less than 10 points, once by 0.2. Warner....Portis/R Williams/Slaton....Moss/Megatron/Stallworth....LJ Smith/Keller.....Kasey....KC Cheifs......I was a bit worried with Steven Jackson and Berrian off, but Stallworth somehow found the endzone. This is the longest I have ever made it.
I never physically add mine up - give Fantasy Star a try - very good site ...just sign up and load your team. Organized Chaos from these boards created it. Prett dam nice.
 
I think (i hope actually) but I think that TD by Chris Johnson put me just over the cut line. Wow. Just wow. I thought FOR SURE, I was saying goodbye to everyone tomorrow morning. (fingers crossed)

 
Fantasystar final estimate...138.5 I'm sure that late CJ3 TD killed a bunch of teams...got me a win in my league game tho :goodposting:

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Fantasystar final estimate...138.5 I'm sure that late CJ3 TD killed a bunch of teams...got me a win in my league game tho :confused:
If that cut line is accurate, I can say that that statement is right, as that TD squeezes me in at 140.15, knocking someone out below me.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Fantasystar final estimate...138.5 I'm sure that late CJ3 TD killed a bunch of teams...got me a win in my league game tho :goodposting:
Closest I've been to the cut all year at 149.25.But I'm a little worried that I may be in trouble if FWP isn't back by Portis' bye in week 10.
 
Week 9 is my Waterloo. Brees sits, although I still have Cutler. My available WRs are A. Bryant, Breaston, Miles Austin, and Early Doucet.

 
Week 9 is my Waterloo. Brees sits, although I still have Cutler. My available WRs are A. Bryant, Breaston, Miles Austin, and Early Doucet.
Me too. I didn't have a single player on bye this week, but I'll miss Brees, Steve Smith, Shockey and Kasay in week 9.I've still got Warner and Schaub at QB, all 5 of my RB's and 4 WR's...my weakest spots are TE with only Keller & Utecht and Kicker with only Rackers. 3 Defenses all in play, though.

I think I'll make it with the strength of my RB's and QB depth, but I fell a bit vulnarable. I'm really lucky to have only lost Burleson to injury so far. Shockey has missed time, but he's back and the rest of my team has played pretty much every week. At least I beat 14 kicker guy. :goodposting:

 
Should be some fairly high cut rates for alot of expensive RB's this week...

Goose eggs

ADP - 53

Addai - 50

SJax - 50

LJ - 40

Bush - 33

Maroney - 33

Grant - 32

DMac - 29

FWP - 23

Selvin - 21

Forte - 20

Mendenhall - 18

Chester - 14

B. Jackson - 14

Felix - 11

Low scores - under 10 points

MJD - 34

Ronnie - 34

Jacobs - 32

Turner - 28

Graham - 26

K. Smith - 23

Rudi - 22

Ahman - 16

Norwood - 14

Very low scores - under 5 points

Edge - 27

Stewart - 21

JJ - 19

Fred - 18

Fargas - 11

Maurice - 11

Pierre - 10

 

Users who are viewing this thread

Top