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****OFFICIAL 2021-22 FBG Playoff Subscriber Contest**** (1 Viewer)

Rough start this week with only 37.6 through the first two games.

To go:

Matt Gay LAR

Sony Michel LAR

Le'Veon Bell TB

Cameron Brate TB

Patrick Mahomes KC

Darrel Williams KC

Kansas City Chiefs KC

Noah Gray KC

Byron Pringle KC

Demarcus Robinson KC

Zack Moss BUF

Emmanuel Sanders BUF

 
Rough opening day, only managed 23.9 and lost a CC final pair of players in A.Jones/M.Lewis. 

I have to hope for another repeat performance from the KC (Mahomes/Kelce/Hardman/D.Will/Robinson) and TB (Brady/Gronk/Vaughn) players along with Akers/Rams D to get me a chip and a chair next week, but I'm not favoring my chances.....Uggh. 

 
The cutline has gotta be pretty dang low after the first two games. I think everyone expected the most fireworks to come out of Buf/KC today but I don't think anybody had Tannehill being the only QB to throw a single TD yesterday. Obviously the line will go up today if there are fireworks, but yesterday had to help many people's chances. 

Like mine, since I faded GB, SF, CIN and TEN players. I need Chiefs Rams today and it's on like Donkey Kong.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
I can’t win it all with 2 49ers, 1 Buc, 0 Ram,  but I guess I still can make the cut this week thanks to Uzomah and Aaron Jones. Fooled by Packers. 

 
Banked:

Deebo and Higgins 28.1

Today, Projected 110.3

Pringle 8.6 (& D Williams 1.7 ugh)
Allen & Diggs 45.6 (+ 4 more Bills not counting - Moss, Sanders, McKenzie, Bass)
Brate & Howard 7.4 (+ $2 Leveon Bell cut today lol)
Stafford & Kupp 47 (+ 3 more Rams not counting - Michel, Gay, Defense)

Dead Money ($13):  Agholor, Boswell, MVS, 

Total: 138.4

Looks like my prior estimate for week 2 cutoff (135) will be very relevant, lol.  Hopefully yesterdays low scores push the cutoff down to the 125 range.

 
What would the highest score from yesterday look like, knowing the Packers are going home and those teams that advance with Packers are DOA next week?

I haven't looked am guessing here, but I will edit:

Jones/Adams : ~37
Kittle/Niners defense: ~27  or Deebo instead of Kittle but I think the D scored highest
Chase/Higgins : ~27 maybe McPherson instead
AJ Brown/Henry : ~38

Maybe there were more points scored yesterday than I realized. I had zero players active yesterday and come into today with a 0. Lol. Tons of cheddar today, though. 
 

 
barackdhouse said:
What would the highest score from yesterday look like, knowing the Packers are going home and those teams that advance with Packers are DOA next week?

I haven't looked am guessing here, but I will edit:

Jones/Adams : ~37
Kittle/Niners defense: ~27  or Deebo instead of Kittle but I think the D scored highest
Chase/Higgins : ~27 maybe McPherson instead
AJ Brown/Henry : ~38

Maybe there were more points scored yesterday than I realized. I had zero players active yesterday and come into today with a 0. Lol. Tons of cheddar today, though. 
 
Click to expand...
Deebo was about 16.5 which I'm guessing is > Kittle.  Higgins was ~11.5 so I'm guessing McPhersons 4FG/1XP was above.

 
barackdhouse said:
I'm seeing Deebo with 3 catches for 44 and 10 carries for 39. 11.3 PPR points. Kittle had 4 for 63 for 12.3 pts in this TEP format. Looking at an ESPN boxscore.
Click to expand...
@kyter1 updated his spreadsheet after the SF/GB game went final if it helps....

According to his calculations - Kittle had 12.30 and Deebo had 11.30 both as you had indicated. 

 
SeniorVBDStudent said:
Banked:

Deebo and Higgins 28.1

Today, Projected 110.3

Pringle 8.6 (& D Williams 1.7 ugh)
Allen & Diggs 45.6 (+ 4 more Bills not counting - Moss, Sanders, McKenzie, Bass)
Brate & Howard 7.4 (+ $2 Leveon Bell cut today lol)
Stafford & Kupp 47 (+ 3 more Rams not counting - Michel, Gay, Defense)

Dead Money ($13):  Agholor, Boswell, MVS, 

Total: 138.4

Looks like my prior estimate for week 2 cutoff (135) will be very relevant, lol.  Hopefully yesterdays low scores push the cutoff down to the 125 range.
Click to expand...
I see your 138.4 and raise you my 135.5 projected finish.....Yea where is that couch to hide behind....the Turk is lurking....

 
Such a challenging contest. You want to load up on Super Bowl teams, you need to load up on Super Bowl teams, but so many participants choose duos on multiple teams which winds up being a Code Red on the teams that attempt to skirt by and those teams, well they can't handle the truth!

Went heavy on the Niners SB because they were among the longest shots and had relatively low costs. Added three Bengals and two Chiefs because they were the teams that I suspected to get by. My mistake was adding two Cardinals (Murray and Ertz) because they also were cheap and I thought that they could sneak by the Rams. I did not need them in week one and they were gone in week two. I also had a really cheap Eagle if I needed additional scoring in week one. I did not.

My two Chiefs were both value at cost, Mahomes and Pringle. My three Bengals all played well, Burrow, Chase and Mixon. My Niners won twice, but there scoring was really poor in week two and so I came up 30 or so points short in week two. 

Great contest and especially challenging rules, but I am thankful that @Joe Bryantgives us this additional excitement in the post season. Good Luck to all thread posters that survived. I will be watching the next two rounds.

 
154.50 for me, which puts me 0.65 behind the Turk, if the sheet is correct. 14 entries behind. I wonder if there are that many staff entries. Man that is close though. One more catch by Sanders and I make it. 

 
Looks like week 2 is posted and I missed the cut by about 3...tbh it would not be of much solace as the max SB players I would have had left was 6....oh well. 

Good luck to all those still in it!!

 
Missed cut by 3.15 pts.....oh well, it was a run. Also, I had been interested in trying a different approach for a couple years and the slightly different format this year gave me the incentive to do it. Always a fun endeavor. Thanks FBG!!

 
I'm distraught that Buffalo couldn't prevent a FG with 13 seconds left, trashing my projected Bills / Rams superbowl.

Made the cut and have Byron Pringle and Darrell Williams and 9 Rams but pretty sure that's not a path to victory.

 
Pretty bad when you have 47 from your QB and 52 from a WR and still don't make the cut.

 
on to the finals but only with 6 players as I predicted Rams / Bills.

Stafford, Kupp, Michel, Matt Gay, Rams D vs Tee Higgins.

13 seconds away from winning this thing with Rams / Bills (Josh Allen, Diggs, Moss, McKenzie, Sanders, Tyler Bass)....thanks for nothing Leslie Frazier.

 
Congrats to the Rams/Bengals combos that snuck through!  Pretty tough route for that one based on the stats in the game.  Will be interested to know if anyone has this one on lock.

-QG

 
Here are, I think, the entries with the most dollars invested in Bengals and Rams:

101742
104118
103353
103703
103579
103170
100130
104575
100004
100786
102629
100264
101326
102365
102467
100277
100391
104153
102520
104567
104123
102017
103298
101602
104238
103525
101872
103063
103335
102096
101403
103995
 

I did that real quick so it could be wrong.

 
(HULK) said:
It's not a terrible strategy. You need to stack 2 teams that you think will make the Superbowl, sprinkle in enough of other players to sneak just above the cut line. That is the only winning strategy. You and I just picked the wrong sprinkles (or maybe not enough sprinkles).
Click to expand...
Goodness gracious, we would have been the favorites. See you next year! 

 
Raleigh Engineers said:
I made it to the finals!  :)   But since KC lost, I now have just Stafford/Kupp.  Haha
Click to expand...
I saw a lot of hybrid rosters that have 2 or 3 players from 3 or 4 teams.  There were only about 10 teams that had more than 3 players from both teams (Group 1).  I did not do a count of teams with 5 or more from Rams and 2 or less from Bengals, or vice versa (call that Group 2).  As only top 12 payout, and I'm in Group 2, I'm hoping one or two teams from Group 2 creep into the top 12.

 
SeniorVBDStudent said:
103170 looks pretty strong....

Burrow, Chase, Perine, Uzomah, Sample

Stafford, Kupp, Higbee, Gay
Click to expand...


If I did my pivot tables, etc correctly.....

Live teams with 9 SB starters: 2 (103170 - the favorite and 104123 -> 1 bengal 8 rams)

Live teams with 8 SB starters: 7

Live teams with 7 SB starters: 15

Live teams with 6 SB starters: 12 (I'm in this group...one other team has my exact roster + 1 so I already know I can't win :p)

Your top 12 will likely come from the above...

 
I think 1742 is the favorite. 

Just for fun, I went searching for what-might-have-beens, but there really aren't any.  There were three teams who spent their entire budget on Bengals and Rams, but they weren't close to surviving wild card weekend.  This team is interesting in that it had the exact same strategy as 1742, and would have had the edge over 1742 had it survived. But it didn't.

Aside from the above-linked Team 2023, I don't see any teams that can really claim they *almost* survived and would have won if they did.

 
Dacomish said:
Good luck to @SeniorVBDStudent and any other of our forum crowd in here today, keep us updated on your status, would be nice to see one of our regulars win this! 
Click to expand...
Thanks.  Top 12 payout and I finished 28th :(

Not surprising since I had Rams / Bills superbowl (thanks for nothing "13 seconds" Leslie Frazier).  Tee Higgins did his best for me but I had no shot :D

Congrats to the winners!

 
SeniorVBDStudent said:
Thanks.  Top 12 payout and I finished 28th :(

Not surprising since I had Rams / Bills superbowl (thanks for nothing "13 seconds" Leslie Frazier).  Tee Higgins did his best for me but I had no shot :D

Congrats to the winners!
Click to expand...
That sucks, I was rooting for you! I looked at the winning entry:

https://footballguys.com/contests/playoffcontest/2021/entry/101742

Literally 2 non Bengals/Rams and breezed through the whole contest.....food for thought next year for us!  Sure it was incredibly lucky with only 6 max players for a few rounds but they hit on the right hits...

 
Dacomish said:
That sucks, I was rooting for you! I looked at the winning entry:

https://footballguys.com/contests/playoffcontest/2021/entry/101742

Literally 2 non Bengals/Rams and breezed through the whole contest.....food for thought next year for us!  Sure it was incredibly lucky with only 6 max players for a few rounds but they hit on the right hits...
Click to expand...
Another possible strategy is to try to "place" rather than come in 1st.  I see a lot of top 10 entries that have 2-4 spots concentrated on 4 teams.  Short rosters with Stafford/Kupp, Allen/Diggs, Mahomes/Hill, Burrow/Higgins.

 
SeniorVBDStudent said:
Another possible strategy is to try to "place" rather than come in 1st.  I see a lot of top 10 entries that have 2-4 spots concentrated on 4 teams.  Short rosters with Stafford/Kupp, Allen/Diggs, Mahomes/Hill, Burrow/Higgins.
Click to expand...
IIRC, you & I went back & forth on that a bit last year - whether it’s best to stack favorite teams & have a small/expensive roster, or to take a more scattershot approach. It was an interesting discussion. 

I still feel like there’s a balance, but you definitely need a core of studs from high scoring teams to win. 

the biggest challenge seems to be getting just enough from the lesser players to carry you over the cut if your studs have a down week.  They don’t have to have huge upside, but consistency is key.

 
Dacomish said:
That sucks, I was rooting for you! I looked at the winning entry:

https://footballguys.com/contests/playoffcontest/2021/entry/101742

Literally 2 non Bengals/Rams and breezed through the whole contest.....food for thought next year for us!  Sure it was incredibly lucky with only 6 max players for a few rounds but they hit on the right hits...
Click to expand...
 Amazing stats right here, winning team:

  1. had only ten total player
  2. used only $247 
  3. never used Higbee at $12, so actually only used $235 and nine players
Need to remind myself that with the abundance of teams going two players deep on most all the teams and with the player costs as they have been the last couple of seasons, there is:

no need to stack six or more guys for "your" SB teams

 
rzrback77 said:
no need to stack six or more guys for "your" SB teams
Click to expand...
facts

And in general, “stacking” so deep on any one team likely results in less points, as the chances they’ll all blow up at once are significantly lower as compared to diversification. 

little stacks of QB/WR, or WR/RB, or even QB/WR/RB should be fine. Any more & you’re probably borrowing from Pete to pay Paul.

and also possibly setting up a missed cut for having all eggs in one basket if that team had a bad week, QB Injury, etc 

 
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