Alberta Clipper
Footballguy
Thanks DD. Reading these updates and looking at some of the top teams help me see I'm just on borrowed time (carrying Edge & Ben will do that to ya).
				
			My guess would be Matt Forte. He is on 62 rosters, and Dodds projects him as the highest scoring RB this week.Alright, here's this week's extra dose of geekery....
I took the simulated survival percentages that are a couple of posts up, then I looked at each player and determined what the average (predicted) survival rate was for teams that had that player.
For example, there are 31 live teams that have Bernard Berrian. The average survival percentage for those 31 teams is 47.3%. The overall survival rate will be 50%, so this says that having Berrian is slightly more correlated with non-survival rather than with survival. (Remember, of course, that correlation is not causation.) DeAngelo Williams' teams average 52.9% survival, Antonio Bryant's 54.1%, Ray Rice's 49.1%.
Here is a trivia question: among the players who are on 50 or more teams, who is the "most valuable" guy to have this week, in the sense that teams he's on have the highest average survival percentage?
We know already you got the shaft already. I guess this is going to be a daily thing like just ploy to motivate wasI think the contest should be changed to allow for scoring that should have happened if the refs knew the rulebook.

First of all, I don't think anyone is complaining. Your point has some validity until you reach the later weeks. The "real game" boils down to a handful of players (possibly kickers and Ds) when the no-brainers hang a postable score. The "real game" could be significantly expanded if the player population was accurately valued when most people submit their rosters.Let's look at a hypothetical 2008. Let's assume that DWill, ADP, and Barber blew out their knees in the week 3 pre-season games. Most of the rosters would have then consisted of Stewart, Taylor, Jones, Slanton, and Williams. Where does this leave a guy that identifies Thomas Jones, Portis, and CJ as great RB values? Even if they exceeded Stewart/Taylor/Slanton/Jones/Williams on a point per dollar basis for the entire year, it only takes one week for the herd of masses to run flush the Jones/Portis/CJ owners out of the contest.In the current format one could reasonably argue that it's as important to identify and join the herd as it is to pick good players. All I'm suggesting is that the contest would be improved if the valuations were more accurate and there were fewer no-brainers on the table. When you have 50%+ of the people selecting the same guy, obviously there's a valuation problem.For everyone complaining about the contest and player prices, may I point out that everyone has the opportunity to buy the low-price players with huge upside? Players like Warner and Slaton are obviously no-brainers when you build your team and they act more as a way to eliminate people who aren't paying attention to the game than as a overall winning strategy. The real game is played among the higher priced players because that's where the people who pay attention to the game have differing opinions on value vs. price.
Dirty Weasel got it: Santana Moss. Here is the full list:[code=Alright, here's this week's extra dose of geekery....
I took the simulated survival percentages that are a couple of posts up, then I looked at each player and determined what the average (predicted) survival rate was for teams that had that player.
For example, there are 31 live teams that have Bernard Berrian. The average survival percentage for those 31 teams is 47.3%. The overall survival rate will be 50%, so this says that having Berrian is slightly more correlated with non-survival rather than with survival. (Remember, of course, that correlation is not causation.) DeAngelo Williams' teams average 52.9% survival, Antonio Bryant's 54.1%, Ray Rice's 49.1%.
Here is a trivia question: among the players who are on 50 or more teams, who is the "most valuable" guy to have this week, in the sense that teams he's on have the highest average survival percentage?
Dirty Weasel said:My guess would be Matt Forte. He is on 62 rosters, and Dodds projects him as the highest scoring RB this week.Doug Drinen said:Alright, here's this week's extra dose of geekery....
I took the simulated survival percentages that are a couple of posts up, then I looked at each player and determined what the average (predicted) survival rate was for teams that had that player.
For example, there are 31 live teams that have Bernard Berrian. The average survival percentage for those 31 teams is 47.3%. The overall survival rate will be 50%, so this says that having Berrian is slightly more correlated with non-survival rather than with survival. (Remember, of course, that correlation is not causation.) DeAngelo Williams' teams average 52.9% survival, Antonio Bryant's 54.1%, Ray Rice's 49.1%.
Here is a trivia question: among the players who are on 50 or more teams, who is the "most valuable" guy to have this week, in the sense that teams he's on have the highest average survival percentage?
 
   I hope he is right
 I hope he is rightDoug Drinen said:Dirty Weasel got it: Santana Moss. Here is the full list:Doug Drinen said:Alright, here's this week's extra dose of geekery....
I took the simulated survival percentages that are a couple of posts up, then I looked at each player and determined what the average (predicted) survival rate was for teams that had that player.
For example, there are 31 live teams that have Bernard Berrian. The average survival percentage for those 31 teams is 47.3%. The overall survival rate will be 50%, so this says that having Berrian is slightly more correlated with non-survival rather than with survival. (Remember, of course, that correlation is not causation.) DeAngelo Williams' teams average 52.9% survival, Antonio Bryant's 54.1%, Ray Rice's 49.1%.
Here is a trivia question: among the players who are on 50 or more teams, who is the "most valuable" guy to have this week, in the sense that teams he's on have the highest average survival percentage?Code:InterestingAdrian Peterson 32 40.6 T.J. Houshmandzadeh 14 40.2 Wes Welker 17 38.9 Plaxico Burress 10 38.2 Dwayne Bowe 10 35.2 Randy Moss 15 34.2 relative to Earnest Graham 52 44.0 Javon Walker 6 40.9 Tom Brady 7 36.9
Who is this Slanton fellow you keep referring to? Maybe if I selected him I would still be in this...BassNBrew said:First of all, I don't think anyone is complaining. Your point has some validity until you reach the later weeks. The "real game" boils down to a handful of players (possibly kickers and Ds) when the no-brainers hang a postable score. The "real game" could be significantly expanded if the player population was accurately valued when most people submit their rosters.Let's look at a hypothetical 2008. Let's assume that DWill, ADP, and Barber blew out their knees in the week 3 pre-season games. Most of the rosters would have then consisted of Stewart, Taylor, Jones, Slanton, and Williams. Where does this leave a guy that identifies Thomas Jones, Portis, and CJ as great RB values? Even if they exceeded Stewart/Taylor/Slanton/Jones/Williams on a point per dollar basis for the entire year, it only takes one week for the herd of masses to run flush the Jones/Portis/CJ owners out of the contest.In the current format one could reasonably argue that it's as important to identify and join the herd as it is to pick good players. All I'm suggesting is that the contest would be improved if the valuations were more accurate and there were fewer no-brainers on the table. When you have 50%+ of the people selecting the same guy, obviously there's a valuation problem.Xenopax said:For everyone complaining about the contest and player prices, may I point out that everyone has the opportunity to buy the low-price players with huge upside? Players like Warner and Slaton are obviously no-brainers when you build your team and they act more as a way to eliminate people who aren't paying attention to the game than as a overall winning strategy. The real game is played among the higher priced players because that's where the people who pay attention to the game have differing opinions on value vs. price.
He meant Steve Slayton, the Texans RBWho is this Slanton fellow you keep referring to? Maybe if I selected him I would still be in this...BassNBrew said:First of all, I don't think anyone is complaining. Your point has some validity until you reach the later weeks. The "real game" boils down to a handful of players (possibly kickers and Ds) when the no-brainers hang a postable score. The "real game" could be significantly expanded if the player population was accurately valued when most people submit their rosters.Let's look at a hypothetical 2008. Let's assume that DWill, ADP, and Barber blew out their knees in the week 3 pre-season games. Most of the rosters would have then consisted of Stewart, Taylor, Jones, Slanton, and Williams. Where does this leave a guy that identifies Thomas Jones, Portis, and CJ as great RB values? Even if they exceeded Stewart/Taylor/Slanton/Jones/Williams on a point per dollar basis for the entire year, it only takes one week for the herd of masses to run flush the Jones/Portis/CJ owners out of the contest.In the current format one could reasonably argue that it's as important to identify and join the herd as it is to pick good players. All I'm suggesting is that the contest would be improved if the valuations were more accurate and there were fewer no-brainers on the table. When you have 50%+ of the people selecting the same guy, obviously there's a valuation problem.Xenopax said:For everyone complaining about the contest and player prices, may I point out that everyone has the opportunity to buy the low-price players with huge upside? Players like Warner and Slaton are obviously no-brainers when you build your team and they act more as a way to eliminate people who aren't paying attention to the game than as a overall winning strategy. The real game is played among the higher priced players because that's where the people who pay attention to the game have differing opinions on value vs. price.
Oops, I meant SleightonHe meant Steve Slayton, the Texans RBWho is this Slanton fellow you keep referring to? Maybe if I selected him I would still be in this...BassNBrew said:First of all, I don't think anyone is complaining. Your point has some validity until you reach the later weeks. The "real game" boils down to a handful of players (possibly kickers and Ds) when the no-brainers hang a postable score. The "real game" could be significantly expanded if the player population was accurately valued when most people submit their rosters.Let's look at a hypothetical 2008. Let's assume that DWill, ADP, and Barber blew out their knees in the week 3 pre-season games. Most of the rosters would have then consisted of Stewart, Taylor, Jones, Slanton, and Williams. Where does this leave a guy that identifies Thomas Jones, Portis, and CJ as great RB values? Even if they exceeded Stewart/Taylor/Slanton/Jones/Williams on a point per dollar basis for the entire year, it only takes one week for the herd of masses to run flush the Jones/Portis/CJ owners out of the contest.In the current format one could reasonably argue that it's as important to identify and join the herd as it is to pick good players. All I'm suggesting is that the contest would be improved if the valuations were more accurate and there were fewer no-brainers on the table. When you have 50%+ of the people selecting the same guy, obviously there's a valuation problem.Xenopax said:For everyone complaining about the contest and player prices, may I point out that everyone has the opportunity to buy the low-price players with huge upside? Players like Warner and Slaton are obviously no-brainers when you build your team and they act more as a way to eliminate people who aren't paying attention to the game than as a overall winning strategy. The real game is played among the higher priced players because that's where the people who pay attention to the game have differing opinions on value vs. price.
I think it's your RB's since Bush may still be out.. Your WR's are great but your RB depth without Bush is lacking which probably keeps your survival rate down. I sure wish I had your WR's..Those power rankings confuse me every week. Every week I'm somewhere in the bottom half (this week I'm at about 40% survival chance) and every week but one I've pretty easily cleared the cutoff.
I feel like I have a pretty strong team, and when Bush comes back (hopefully this weekend) I expect that it will be even stronger.
Maybe it's my limited TEs, K, Ds...
I'm sitting at #2 and loving life! That's the ultimate spot in which to find your team, given the propensity of former #1s that are now on the outside looking inRest-of-season simulations. Usual caveats apply.

After this week's #1 gets booted, you'll be elevated to #1. Doh!!!!!!!!!!!!!1Plus you just keerocked yourself to boot. Double Doh!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!11I'm sitting at #2 and loving life! That's the ultimate spot in which to find your team, given the propensity of former #1s that are now on the outside looking inRest-of-season simulations. Usual caveats apply.
Can someone run my team and post the results ?104782Rest-of-season simulations. Usual caveats apply.
 
 you are # 532Can someone run my team and post the results ?104782Rest-of-season simulations. Usual caveats apply.
TIA
you are # 532Can someone run my team and post the results ?104782Rest-of-season simulations. Usual caveats apply.
TIA

Lol remember got to be in it to win ityou are # 532Can someone run my team and post the results ?104782Rest-of-season simulations. Usual caveats apply.
TIA


True, anything can happenLol remember got to be in it to win ityou are # 532Can someone run my team and post the results ?104782Rest-of-season simulations. Usual caveats apply.
TIA


No ####?He meant Steve Slayton, the Texans RBWho is this Slanton fellow you keep referring to? Maybe if I selected him I would still be in this...BassNBrew said:First of all, I don't think anyone is complaining. Your point has some validity until you reach the later weeks. The "real game" boils down to a handful of players (possibly kickers and Ds) when the no-brainers hang a postable score. The "real game" could be significantly expanded if the player population was accurately valued when most people submit their rosters.Let's look at a hypothetical 2008. Let's assume that DWill, ADP, and Barber blew out their knees in the week 3 pre-season games. Most of the rosters would have then consisted of Stewart, Taylor, Jones, Slanton, and Williams. Where does this leave a guy that identifies Thomas Jones, Portis, and CJ as great RB values? Even if they exceeded Stewart/Taylor/Slanton/Jones/Williams on a point per dollar basis for the entire year, it only takes one week for the herd of masses to run flush the Jones/Portis/CJ owners out of the contest.In the current format one could reasonably argue that it's as important to identify and join the herd as it is to pick good players. All I'm suggesting is that the contest would be improved if the valuations were more accurate and there were fewer no-brainers on the table. When you have 50%+ of the people selecting the same guy, obviously there's a valuation problem.For everyone complaining about the contest and player prices, may I point out that everyone has the opportunity to buy the low-price players with huge upside? Players like Warner and Slaton are obviously no-brainers when you build your team and they act more as a way to eliminate people who aren't paying attention to the game than as a overall winning strategy. The real game is played among the higher priced players because that's where the people who pay attention to the game have differing opinions on value vs. price.

Actually, I wouldn't feel very safe there either. I was ranked #3 last week and got the boot. I was only ranked #1 in the original power rankings.dbc925 said:I'm sitting at #2 and loving life! That's the ultimate spot in which to find your team, given the propensity of former #1s that are now on the outside looking inRest-of-season simulations. Usual caveats apply.
Not to pick on Otis, because others have made similar comments (and because I like Otis), but 40% doesn't mean "you stink." It means 40%. A whole lot of pitchers who faced Ted Williams can tell you what 40% means. Not exactly a huge upset when that guy got a hit.[...looking up your team....]Hey, wait a minute. Now I'm confused. In week 10 you were 86%, and in week 11 you were 74%. Neither was in the bottom half.Those power rankings confuse me every week. Every week I'm somewhere in the bottom half (this week I'm at about 40% survival chance) and every week but one I've pretty easily cleared the cutoff.

Assuming you're using Internet Explorer, click on "Edit" in your menu line, then "find" (or just hit "ctrl-f" which saves going through the menu). In the box that appears, enter your team #. If you don't know your team #, check it in "myFBG" first.Cheesedawg said:Is there an easy way to find your team in that long list?
No worries, Otis. I only believe the contest simulator when it has me making the cut. The weeks it has me getting booted I can only assume Doug screwed up in the formula somewhere.Not to pick on Otis, because others have made similar comments (and because I like Otis), but 40% doesn't mean "you stink." It means 40%. A whole lot of pitchers who faced Ted Williams can tell you what 40% means. Not exactly a huge upset when that guy got a hit.[...looking up your team....]Hey, wait a minute. Now I'm confused. In week 10 you were 86%, and in week 11 you were 74%. Neither was in the bottom half.Those power rankings confuse me every week. Every week I'm somewhere in the bottom half (this week I'm at about 40% survival chance) and every week but one I've pretty easily cleared the cutoff.
Check his five alias.Not to pick on Otis, because others have made similar comments (and because I like Otis), but 40% doesn't mean "you stink." It means 40%. A whole lot of pitchers who faced Ted Williams can tell you what 40% means. Not exactly a huge upset when that guy got a hit.[...looking up your team....]Hey, wait a minute. Now I'm confused. In week 10 you were 86%, and in week 11 you were 74%. Neither was in the bottom half.Those power rankings confuse me every week. Every week I'm somewhere in the bottom half (this week I'm at about 40% survival chance) and every week but one I've pretty easily cleared the cutoff.
Not to pick on Otis, because others have made similar comments (and because I like Otis), but 40% doesn't mean "you stink." It means 40%. A whole lot of pitchers who faced Ted Williams can tell you what 40% means. Not exactly a huge upset when that guy got a hit.[...looking up your team....]Hey, wait a minute. Now I'm confused. In week 10 you were 86%, and in week 11 you were 74%. Neither was in the bottom half.Those power rankings confuse me every week. Every week I'm somewhere in the bottom half (this week I'm at about 40% survival chance) and every week but one I've pretty easily cleared the cutoff.
 I must have misread something.  I looked at something today that had me at a 40% survival percentage.  Maybe I'm looking at the wrong column.I take it all back.  These projections are AWESOME.
I must have misread something.  I looked at something today that had me at a 40% survival percentage.  Maybe I'm looking at the wrong column.I take it all back.  These projections are AWESOME.  Edited to add:Oh wait.  I just checked this week's, and it does have me around 40%.Yeah, I'm pretty sure these power rankings are buggy.
Edited to add:Oh wait.  I just checked this week's, and it does have me around 40%.Yeah, I'm pretty sure these power rankings are buggy.I think these three ownership #'s are crazy.I'd love to be one of these 6 people. If those guys have a great game, that is a huge advantage over the rest of the field.Doug Drinen said:Code:teams AvSurv%----------------------------------Ronnie Brown 1 60.9Willis McGahee 2 58.2Antonio Gates 3 56.9
I said it over a month ago. The dude with Ronnie Brown is gonna win it all. He also owns the very rare Peyton Manning (26 teams, IIRC).I think these three ownership #'s are crazy.I'd love to be one of these 6 people. If those guys have a great game, that is a huge advantage over the rest of the field.Doug Drinen said:Code:teams AvSurv%----------------------------------Ronnie Brown 1 60.9Willis McGahee 2 58.2Antonio Gates 3 56.9
Ben's score of 25.45 is correct, because he had positive yards rushing.Here are all the contest players from last night, their scores, and their ownership percentages:25.35 for Roethlisberger tonight (subtracting .1 from FS for the last-play kneel-down).
Rooting heavy for the Giants D to contain Kurt Warner.
That said, does anyone else find it odd that the NFL scheduled the Cards to travel to the East Coast on a short week to play the Eagles Thanksgiving night?
 I'm missin' out on all of the Turk's new toys  :(
  I'm missin' out on all of the Turk's new toys  :(  )
 )And please make it more like this contest (salary cap) rather than pick a player from each team. It will open up a huge number of different strategies.Still, the postseason contest can't come fast enough! (please tell me there's a postseason contest, Turk)-QG
The biggest mover (up) is this guy, who had Jeff Reed and Heath Miller. He moved from 40% to 56.8%.
Overall, teams with Miller gained 8.1 percentage points on average. Teams with Marion Barber, for some reason, gained 1.6 percentage points on average. Teams with Hines Ward lost 13
