Unofficial pre-MNF cut = 169.95
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2008 $35,000 Subscriber Contest (4 Viewers)
- Thread starter Makavity
- Start date
Pre-MNF sim. Usual caveats apply.
Marvin88
Footballguy
UPDATED: 165.95 with Slaton (-11) and Walter (-10.5). But #346 in the simulator with a 5.5% of survival.Evidently, this means that Walter or Slaton would both have to have VERY huge games - enough for the cut line to rise significantly, but my stats to rise significantly as well.
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Orlando RMF
Footballguy
From 19% chance of survival after the the Thanksgiving games to 194 and 100%, phew! Also have Walter, Reggie Williams and Slaton still to go.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
I'm at 165.95 but still have Slaton and Taylor (both -5.4), Walter (-12.1), and HOU (-3) to go.
brownies19
Footballguy
I apologize if this is somewhere in the previous 78 pages, but once we get down to 250, is there any way to view the total points scored to date by those teams to get a reference of who might be the favorites here?
Looking forward to the next three weeks at 192.85 + Slaton and Walter (both -14.5 vs flex).
Looking forward to the next three weeks at 192.85 + Slaton and Walter (both -14.5 vs flex).
I'm now in the strange position of having to root against my only remaining player (Slaton), since I can't use his score but almost everyone else can.
I can't believe I'm (probably) going to miss the playoffs because Tom Cable is allergic to field goal attempts.
I can't believe I'm (probably) going to miss the playoffs because Tom Cable is allergic to field goal attempts.
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Jayrod
Footballguy
I'm at 100%. I thought my 181 would be risky, but I guess I have the two biggest cut line movers in tonight's game with Slaton & Walter. Anything great from either of them and my score moves up.I can't believe I'm going to make it to the final round in my first year of the contest.
Here's to Fitz and Shockey going ballistic for the next three weeks.
Marvin88
Footballguy
So if you are at 100% and you have 181. How much would Slaton need to get you and Walter need to get you before you could use their score? My point being that I am only 16 points behind your 181 score. If you needed Slaton to get more than 18 before you could use him and Walter to get more than 18 before you could use him, then if they scored exactly that much you would still be at 181, but that would increase my score by 14.5 to 180.45. Logic would say that I would then be close to 100% as well.I'm at 100%. I thought my 181 would be risky, but I guess I have the two biggest cut line movers in tonight's game with Slaton & Walter. Anything great from either of them and my score moves up.
I can't believe I'm going to make it to the final round in my first year of the contest.
Here's to Fitz and Shockey going ballistic for the next three weeks.
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David Yudkin
Footballguy
You are assuming that they DO SCORE that much. They could still do very little, at which point you are on the outside looking in.So if you are at 100% and you have 181. How much would Slaton need to get you and Walter need to get you before you could use their score? My point being that I am only 16 points behind your 181 score. If you needed Slaton to get more than 18 before you could use him and Walter to get more than 18 before you could use him, then if they scored exactly that much you would still be at 181, but that would increase my score by 14.5 to 180.45. Logic would say that I would then be close to 100% as well.I'm at 100%. I thought my 181 would be risky, but I guess I have the two biggest cut line movers in tonight's game with Slaton & Walter. Anything great from either of them and my score moves up.
I can't believe I'm going to make it to the final round in my first year of the contest.
Here's to Fitz and Shockey going ballistic for the next three weeks.
Marvin88
Footballguy
Now that's just negative stinkin' thinkin'!!! Unsportsmanlike conduct on Mr. Yudkin! That's a 15 "yard", I mean "point", penalty and get's me to 180.You are assuming that they DO SCORE that much. They could still do very little, at which point you are on the outside looking in.So if you are at 100% and you have 181. How much would Slaton need to get you and Walter need to get you before you could use their score? My point being that I am only 16 points behind your 181 score. If you needed Slaton to get more than 18 before you could use him and Walter to get more than 18 before you could use him, then if they scored exactly that much you would still be at 181, but that would increase my score by 14.5 to 180.45. Logic would say that I would then be close to 100% as well.I'm at 100%. I thought my 181 would be risky, but I guess I have the two biggest cut line movers in tonight's game with Slaton & Walter. Anything great from either of them and my score moves up.
I can't believe I'm going to make it to the final round in my first year of the contest.
Here's to Fitz and Shockey going ballistic for the next three weeks.
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David Yudkin
Footballguy
Hey, I'm on your side, as I need a few extra points to make it to. I have both Slaton and Walter playing (to go with Fragile Fred and the Texans D). So I'll be rooting for your guys too.Marvin88 said:Now that's just negative stinkin' thinkin'!!! Unsportsmanlike conduct on Mr. Yudkin! That's a 15 "yard", I mean "point", penalty and get's me to 180.David Yudkin said:You are assuming that they DO SCORE that much. They could still do very little, at which point you are on the outside looking in.Marvin88 said:So if you are at 100% and you have 181. How much would Slaton need to get you and Walter need to get you before you could use their score? My point being that I am only 16 points behind your 181 score. If you needed Slaton to get more than 18 before you could use him and Walter to get more than 18 before you could use him, then if they scored exactly that much you would still be at 181, but that would increase my score by 14.5 to 180.45. Logic would say that I would then be close to 100% as well.Jayrod said:Doug Drinen said:
I can't believe I'm going to make it to the final round in my first year of the contest.
Here's to Fitz and Shockey going ballistic for the next three weeks.
Jayrod
Footballguy
Either one could take over my flex which is around 11.3 right now. If they both do, then Walter could take WR3 at 14.5...my RB2 is in the mid 20's.I also have JAX defense -6Marvin88 said:So if you are at 100% and you have 181. How much would Slaton need to get you and Walter need to get you before you could use their score? My point being that I am only 16 points behind your 181 score. If you needed Slaton to get more than 18 before you could use him and Walter to get more than 18 before you could use him, then if they scored exactly that much you would still be at 181, but that would increase my score by 14.5 to 180.45. Logic would say that I would then be close to 100% as well.Jayrod said:Doug Drinen said:I'm at 100%. I thought my 181 would be risky, but I guess I have the two biggest cut line movers in tonight's game with Slaton & Walter. Anything great from either of them and my score moves up.
I can't believe I'm going to make it to the final round in my first year of the contest.
Here's to Fitz and Shockey going ballistic for the next three weeks.
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ctriopelle
Footballguy
I would guess that his 181 will get bigger by adding on the popular scores, but his score will start going up before the general population's does. Being fairly far in front of the cut line already makes this a lock to move on. If you are already on the wrong side of the cut, and need big scores to even move an inch, you could be at risk by requiring scores from popular guys. Depending on what the average wrong side slayton/walter owner needs to bump to get their score included, relative to yours (as well as bumps from other contributors), you may have a number that they score that could still hurt you.I have a class that goes until about 9:30 EST tonight, I plan on tracking the cut tonight when I get home. Sorry, but I was out of town this weekend and wasn't able to access my file yesterday during the games. Good luck to everyone!.Marvin88 said:So if you are at 100% and you have 181. How much would Slaton need to get you and Walter need to get you before you could use their score? My point being that I am only 16 points behind your 181 score. If you needed Slaton to get more than 18 before you could use him and Walter to get more than 18 before you could use him, then if they scored exactly that much you would still be at 181, but that would increase my score by 14.5 to 180.45. Logic would say that I would then be close to 100% as well.Jayrod said:Doug Drinen said:I'm at 100%. I thought my 181 would be risky, but I guess I have the two biggest cut line movers in tonight's game with Slaton & Walter. Anything great from either of them and my score moves up.
I can't believe I'm going to make it to the final round in my first year of the contest.
Here's to Fitz and Shockey going ballistic for the next three weeks. :X
P.S. not like anyone cares, but portis and bush taking the last 3 weeks off killed my team badly. Not only was I cut in week 11, I missed the cut last week, and probably won't be close this week either. Just goes to show how the injury bug can really kill even a strong team if it hits at the wrong time.
Marvin88
Footballguy
What's your point total and do you think it's "doable"?Hey, I'm on your side, as I need a few extra points to make it to. I have both Slaton and Walter playing (to go with Fragile Fred and the Texans D). So I'll be rooting for your guys too.Marvin88 said:Now that's just negative stinkin' thinkin'!!! Unsportsmanlike conduct on Mr. Yudkin! That's a 15 "yard", I mean "point", penalty and get's me to 180.David Yudkin said:You are assuming that they DO SCORE that much. They could still do very little, at which point you are on the outside looking in.Marvin88 said:So if you are at 100% and you have 181. How much would Slaton need to get you and Walter need to get you before you could use their score? My point being that I am only 16 points behind your 181 score. If you needed Slaton to get more than 18 before you could use him and Walter to get more than 18 before you could use him, then if they scored exactly that much you would still be at 181, but that would increase my score by 14.5 to 180.45. Logic would say that I would then be close to 100% as well.Jayrod said:Doug Drinen said:
I can't believe I'm going to make it to the final round in my first year of the contest.
Here's to Fitz and Shockey going ballistic for the next three weeks.
ctriopelle
Footballguy
the FS database still has 42 live entries (a survival rate of over 10% of valid teams, which means that we had almost 3x better survival at this point than the average entries did). It's predicted pre-mnf cutoff is 172.3, placiing it within the expected error of the calculation. I will leave the adjustment factor off for the final cut, since the small sample could change differently than the full contest at this point. Remember this as I post scoring updates tonight, and keep in mind it may be helpful compare the amount of cut rise to the pre-mnf number instead of focusing on the number itself (i.e. 172.3 to 180 is a 7.7 pt rise, so you may want to consider adding this number to DD's number for a more accurate estimate). I think a reasonable range would place the final cut somewhere between the FS computed number and the DDpre-mnf number + the FS predicted rise.
CTR
CTR
David Yudkin
Footballguy
165.95. Either Slaton or Taylor would score (-5.4). Walter probably won't help much unless he has a big game (-12.1). Also have HOU D (-3).Not sure how to look at things, as a lot of teams have Slaton and Walter so getting big weeks from them will likely push the cut line higher. I can't tell what % survival rate I have as I am not included officially in the contest database.What's your point total and do you think it's "doable"?Hey, I'm on your side, as I need a few extra points to make it to. I have both Slaton and Walter playing (to go with Fragile Fred and the Texans D). So I'll be rooting for your guys too.Marvin88 said:Now that's just negative stinkin' thinkin'!!! Unsportsmanlike conduct on Mr. Yudkin! That's a 15 "yard", I mean "point", penalty and get's me to 180.David Yudkin said:You are assuming that they DO SCORE that much. They could still do very little, at which point you are on the outside looking in.Marvin88 said:So if you are at 100% and you have 181. How much would Slaton need to get you and Walter need to get you before you could use their score? My point being that I am only 16 points behind your 181 score. If you needed Slaton to get more than 18 before you could use him and Walter to get more than 18 before you could use him, then if they scored exactly that much you would still be at 181, but that would increase my score by 14.5 to 180.45. Logic would say that I would then be close to 100% as well.Jayrod said:Doug Drinen said:
I can't believe I'm going to make it to the final round in my first year of the contest.
Here's to Fitz and Shockey going ballistic for the next three weeks.
Verbal Kint
Footballguy
It would take a miracle to save me now. Hell of a time for Portis to fall flat. Maybe if MJD racks up 5 TDs or something. Oh well. It was a good run.
I have a 0.5% chance to make it. I had three guys (Well Steve Smith twice) get tackled at the one costing me 18.2 points.
Are there any tools out there that tell you how many points you are at before the games are over for the week or is everyone doing a manual calc?
I think I am at 187.25 as of right now and have Slaton and Andre Johnson tonight. Do you guys think I will make it?
My lowest scoring WR had 15.3 points, so if Andre can beat that I think I should be ok. I am thinking anything over 190 would be solid to make the cut...any thoughts?
I think I am at 187.25 as of right now and have Slaton and Andre Johnson tonight. Do you guys think I will make it?
My lowest scoring WR had 15.3 points, so if Andre can beat that I think I should be ok. I am thinking anything over 190 would be solid to make the cut...any thoughts?
ceo3west
Footballguy
Ive been doing a manual calc, i dont think there's a tool to calc scores before the MNF game. You're a lock with that total.
blend
Footballguy
Do you mean the FS website? http://thefantasystar.com/You can input your team and it calculates as games are going on...that's where I get my numbers. I haven't manually calculated anything.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
Somewhere in this thread there is a link to an app that lists what teams have what players. I believe there was still a handful of Brady owners left (maybe 3), but I am not sure.
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wraith5
Footballguy
Sorry for you, but as one of the 40 Steve Smith owners (164 alive) who also owns DeAngelo Williams (135 alive), I was very happy to see so many of my points come from one guy instead of split, to help thin the herd and make me a little more unique. Tomorrow we'll see who I'll be cheering for the rest of the way!165.75 and not too happy that Steve Smith got stopped at the 1 yard line - TWICE!Doug Drinen said:
wraith5
Footballguy
Where can you input your team and where is the app? I am having trouble finding it?
blend
Footballguy
I "think" I started here.. I don't remember exactly where... http://thefantasystar.com/fbg.phpYou go in, create an account... Once you create your account, there is a link on the page that says:
*update* Logged in members can now add thier teams here.
Click the here button and start adding your players.
At least I think it's still open to add your team. I did this at the beginning of the contest, sorry if I'm a bit off in the instructions.
wraith5
Footballguy
Don't feel bad - I didn't see it until a few weeks ago, either. It wasn't until about week 9 that I realized I was still fighting in this thing!
bigfishboy
Footballguy
#357 4.2% to move on. I don't know how that could be so high, I have 147 points with Slaton, Walter and the jags. Everyone has Slaton and Walter so I guess I need 30 from the Jags.
What a ####ty way to end a ####ty weekend. The Beavers blow their opportunity for their fist Rose Bowl in 43 years, my fantasy teams sucked, and I fell off a ladder and broke my arm. Can I get a break?
What a ####ty way to end a ####ty weekend. The Beavers blow their opportunity for their fist Rose Bowl in 43 years, my fantasy teams sucked, and I fell off a ladder and broke my arm. Can I get a break?
Sure....You didn't break the 43 year traditionYour getting a break in contest actionYou broke your arm.Not sure if you want any more breaks.Bad things happen in threes so you're due some good luck.
chuk333
Footballguy
Thanks bigfishboy - you make me feel better - I am #352 with a 5.1% chance to move on, my Terps lost (again), my fantasy teams sucked, but at least I didn't break any bones.Hope you feel better.
Black&Gold
Footballguy
I'm at 0.8% for tonight. Here we go.MJD, Slaton, and Walter!!!!
Ted Lange as your Bartender
Footballguy
Also a 0.8% for tonight - Slaton, Walter and K Brown.It was a good run. GL all
Agreed, this is cool. I'm just trying to figure out why the website has me at 177 points but Dodds's simulator has me at 174.
Every other week matches the final results within a few tenths of a point.
Deepster
Footballguy
Okay. My head hurts.
I have 163.0 right now with:
QB: Cutler 28.9
RB1: T Jones 28.9
RB2: Turner 12.0
WR1, 2, and 3: Fitz, Holmes and Bruce 23.5, 10.8 and 17.7
TE: Keller 18.2
Flex: MBIII 11.0
K: Hanson 7.0
Def: Buffalo 5.0
I have Slaton and Houston D.
If the cut is projected in the high 160's. Wouldn't I need Slaton+Houston to be 7-8 pts more than the current 11.0+5.0?
(I know. How am I this far without knowing that? I don't have an answer for you. Sorry.)
I have 163.0 right now with:
QB: Cutler 28.9
RB1: T Jones 28.9
RB2: Turner 12.0
WR1, 2, and 3: Fitz, Holmes and Bruce 23.5, 10.8 and 17.7
TE: Keller 18.2
Flex: MBIII 11.0
K: Hanson 7.0
Def: Buffalo 5.0
I have Slaton and Houston D.
If the cut is projected in the high 160's. Wouldn't I need Slaton+Houston to be 7-8 pts more than the current 11.0+5.0?
(I know. How am I this far without knowing that? I don't have an answer for you. Sorry.)
FFdork
Footballguy
Crap, all weekend I thought I in with guys like Cutler & T. Jones + a number of other solid performances, but I guess we're down to the really good teams. It gives me a 1% chance. I only have Slaton left. With the high % of Slaton owners I wonder if I'd be better off if he did nothing and tonight's game was a 6-3 affair?
Das Boot
Footballguy
I think you're missing out...This thread is almost 4k posts long, and it was started before the contest even kicked off.
It's hella fun to pay attention every step of the way.
I'm really nervous right now. 
I'm sitting at 159 with the following players remaining
Garrard (-34.5)
Slaton Flex(-10.5) RB2(-15.1)
Walter Flex(-10.5) WR3(-11.6)
O Daniels Flex(-10.5) TE(-18.2)
K Brown (-0)
I didn't realize I had so many HOU players when I put my team together :X . Here's hoping HOU puts up big points.
I don't even know what my best case scenario would be for tonights game. I'm guess big points out of Daniels and Brown would be better than Slaton or Walter, just because of % ownership.
My lack of productive WRs this week killed me.
I'm sitting at 159 with the following players remaining
Garrard (-34.5)
Slaton Flex(-10.5) RB2(-15.1)
Walter Flex(-10.5) WR3(-11.6)
O Daniels Flex(-10.5) TE(-18.2)
K Brown (-0)
I didn't realize I had so many HOU players when I put my team together :X . Here's hoping HOU puts up big points.
I don't even know what my best case scenario would be for tonights game. I'm guess big points out of Daniels and Brown would be better than Slaton or Walter, just because of % ownership.
My lack of productive WRs this week killed me.
ctriopelle
Footballguy
FS projection has only risen .4 points from pre-MNF prediction (172.3). So far, the scoring hasn't done too much.
For those that missed my earlier post today, the FS prediction was about 3 points higher than the actual cut point after sunday games. I'm leaving things as-is to account for the fact we only have 42 teams still in the pool. what the full contest does vs. what these 42 do could be a bit different, so I'm not trying to make an adjustment factor this time around. I'd think that the FS rise should give a close approximation to the actual rise from the unofficial pre-mnf number from DD.
CTR
For those that missed my earlier post today, the FS prediction was about 3 points higher than the actual cut point after sunday games. I'm leaving things as-is to account for the fact we only have 42 teams still in the pool. what the full contest does vs. what these 42 do could be a bit different, so I'm not trying to make an adjustment factor this time around. I'd think that the FS rise should give a close approximation to the actual rise from the unofficial pre-mnf number from DD.
CTR
ctriopelle
Footballguy
2.4 point rise after the 10:45 score update plus Slaton's long catch.
