The future is preordained, people. It's written in Sanskrit on cave walls and etched in stone tablets. The Mayans have their version of what will happen next. Nostradamus has one, too. Even wise guys think they can see tomorrow. Of course, the bonus of believing in the wise guys is that, in their future, the world doesn't come to an inglorious, apocalyptic end. At the most, I might lose a few bucks if the Cardinals don't win more than 88.5 games.And that brings us to our featured topic for today: What to do about baseball futures. With opening day just days away -- assuming the Mayans see us making it 'til the weekend -- the betting boards from Vegas to Antigua are popping with season win totals, odds to win the World Series and who will win the home run title.Futures are great ways for die-hard fans to get a stake in the season and put their money behind their passion. Like those poor squares who always bet on the Cubs to win the World Series (Hey, Bubbee. Wrigley still look good from your apartment?). But futures also give seamheads the opportunity to cash in where they think they see an opportunity. Because it is so stat driven, no sport has more know-it-all fans than baseball. And they're all sure about whether the Pirates will find their rhythm or Grady Sizemore will bounce back. They have the charts and spreadsheets to prove it.Although, for comparison's sake, it's worth noting how irrelevant baseball futures betting is compared to the NFL. At Lucky's in Vegas, Jimmy Vaccaro has a menu of options that includes season win totals, futures, most hits, most home runs and even the first team to get to 80 wins. It's a full buffet. And Jimmy's old school Vegas. He is not afraid to take a big bet at long odds. But he says his baseball props and futures action is about a quarter of what it is for the NFL (that's common around town and off shore). So far this year he's written about $40,000 worth of tickets on season wins (sharps are playing the Indians, under; Mariners; over) and futures and another $50K or so on the other props. "Most of that was in the first week or so, then it died down," he says. "With football, we're writing constantly and it's freaking March."That early action is all wise guy money. And the sharps have the same material as the civilian baseball nerds. Only they're not betting because they're fans or because they want to prove some cooked up theory about players with six years of big league service who are 27 years old, have two L's in their name and come from below the Mason-Dixon line. They do it to make some dough.A wise guy I know named Tim Trushel, who runs sportsmemo.com is a long time season wins total player. I like listening to Tim talk about strategy. Even if he doesn't always win, he always makes sense. It's like hearing a really good analyst break down quarterly numbers. "We have every major league team in a spread sheet along with how many wins they have each year, going back to 1950," he says. "What I look for immediately is a simple formula: Who are the greatest improvers and decliners on a year to year basis. Then when totals come out I look and see how the market is projecting certain teams and I find a pattern. Look at the Cardinals total of 88.5. Last year they won 91 games, but in three previous seasons they won 86, 78, 83. So in three of the previous four seasons they didn't eclipse that win mark of 88.5 games. Even with the addition of Matt Holliday -- whose splits away from Coors make me wonder if he will have that great of an impact -- they are generally relying on the same guys they always have. To me everything has to go right for them to get 89 or 90 wins."Meanwhile, a team Tim really likes to top the over is the Indians at 74.5. An important factor when determining season totals is strength of schedule. You may love the Orioles, but do you love them enough to go over their season win total when they have to spend the season playing the Red Sox, Rays and Yanks? Not likely, no matter how good Matt Wieters is. But, according to Trushel, the Indians team that tanked last year is primed for a rebound. "They are in a division that could be wide open, and they are built with a lot of good young players that I think will get better as the season progresses," he says. "A lot of their guys are on the right side of 28 years old and improving."The Indians are an interesting case study regarding another element Trushel considers for win totals: A team's payroll. Baseball is a long season. A lot of the guys you bet on to start the year won't be with the club at the end of the year. If you are betting on a team to go over, it's important to know if its ace is getting paid loads of dough and will be expendable if the team tanks. Like the Indians last year. On the flip side, if a team has payroll flexibility, keep that in your back pocket, too. The Angels unloaded some big contracts this year, but their owner doesn't mind spending. If his team is in contention at the All-Star break, will he push for a big money star to carry them over the top -- and over the over -- in the stretch run? (Trushel also looks to play unders on individual player props for fear of injuries costing him money. "A guy misses three weeks and there's no way he's reaching his over number," he says.)Now, like the Mayans or Nostradamus, everyone has a different opinion of the future. When I spoke with Richard Gardiner, the boss at bodog.com, he told me that his book was exposed at the Cardinals over 88.5 wins. In fact, it was Bodog's fifth highest liability. (The Rockies over 84.5 was the biggest, "It's getting a lot of sharp action," Gardiner said, with a Canadian accent so thick I thought he was going to reach through the phone and pull my jersey over my head for a tussle. The Rockies were also a popular pick at Lucky's for the first to 80 wins.)Paul Bessire of predictionmachine.com likes the Cardinals over, too. He played every game of the season more than 50,000 times in his super special simulation machine, and the Cards averaged 92.1 wins. Like Trushel, he's big on strength of schedule and doesn't see the NL Central being enough of a challenge to keep St. Louis from covering that bet.When Paul ran his machine for every team, the best consensus picks for season win totals were the under for the Nationals (70.5) and, wait for it, the Indians, at under 74.5. The Nats averaged just 64.8 wins and the Tribe just 69.4. "I get what the wise guy is saying about the Indians going over, and it makes sense," Paul says. "But I think the team that supports his theory most is the Royals. We like them to go over the 71.5 season win total being offered in most places a lot."Wow, the Royals, Indians and Nats are the best bets you can make? Maybe the Mayans had it right: The world must be coming to an end.What MLB Futures/Props are getting action at Bodog:World Series * • Chicago White Sox, opened 25-1, now 20-1 * • Minnesota Twins, opened 20-1, now 18-1 * • Colorado Rockies, 22-1Player Props * • Matt Garza, over 11 wins * • Grady Sizemore, over 25 HRs * • Justin Verlander, under 17 wins * • Scott Baker, under 15 winsWin Totals * • Colorado Rockies, over 84.5 * • Chicago Cubs, over 83.5 * • New York Yankees, over 95.5 * • Oakland Athletics, under 79.5 * • St. Louis Cardinals, over 88.5 * • Kansas City Royals, under 71.5
I'm actually suprised they are predicted at one game less than LA. I guess back to back NLCS gets you that respect. But I like the Rockies alot, I'm on them for about 90 wins, easily winning the division. I'm with a few others on the BoSox as well, and can't believe the Tribe will post more than 74 wins. 
Finless, WHY the Rangers? And please don't timwoztis the thread, thanks. 
I'm actually suprised they are predicted at one game less than LA. I guess back to back NLCS gets you that respect. But I like the Rockies alot, I'm on them for about 90 wins, easily winning the division. I'm with a few others on the BoSox as well, and can't believe the Tribe will post more than 74 wins. 
Finless, WHY the Rangers? And please don't timwoztis the thread, thanks. 
Finless, WHY the Rangers? And please don't timwoztis the thread, thanks. 
