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>>> 2010 Shark Pool Survivor Contest - Week 04 (1 Viewer)

Surviving on Sunday Research and Thoughts on NFL SurvivorTuesday, September 28, 2010Week 4 Interesting week with a ton of Division games. NOThe Saints have not been playing well, but this week they have the Panthers at home this week. They have a ton of future value with 8 more games being favored over a TD. Even if 40%+ weren't taking them I would pass.GBThe biggest favorite of the week. Their biggest issue is that they have a ton of future value with 7 future games as a TD favorite, including 3 in double digits, and a favorable schedule during Double Picks weeks.SDSolid game to take, though just like the previous games SD has a lot of future value with 5 more games as a TD+ favorite. UPDATE: With the new prospective lines up today, Wednesday, the Chargers took a big hit in future value, with only 3 more solid value games. In those 3 weeks, there are at least 4 other games of solid value. SD is my pick this week.ATLInteresting game with the 49ers reeling. ATL crushed them last year but SF needs this game. I think the other options are much better than this one, even considering future value.INDI have heard a bunch of talk that IND doesn't play well in JAC. Well, over the last 8 years, IND has only lost their twice. And only once have they been favored by a TD or more. The Colts don't have a great future schedule, but in week 10 when double picks start, there are very few options and IND is one. I think I need to save them.NYJThe Jets are only a 4.5 point favorite which makes me a bit nervous to take them. Nonetheless, my Math Model likes the Jets. They only have 1 game as a TD favorite before week 17, so I am leaning toward the Jets right now but might decide to play it safe and take SD. Aggressive PossibilitiesSEAOnly a 1 point favorite, but no future value and going into a bye are a very interesting possibility.
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Tuesday, September 28, 20102010 NFL Survivor: Week 4 This week's consensus numbers from OFP and Yahoo!:New Orleans (vs. Carolina)The Saints have a very favorable matchup at home against the Panthers this week, and are favored by 13.5, but that's about all they have going for them. New Orleans is extremely popular, showing up on almost half of all remaining entries in both OFP and Yahoo!. They'd also be nice to keep around, with a very easy home schedule even after the Panthers this weekend. So, if they win this week, there are going to be opportunities in the future where they're big favorites and can't possibly be that popular in Survivor -- no way I'd take the Saints this week.Green Bay (vs. Detroit)Well, my downfall in Week 2 was partially due to wanting to save the Packers for this spot, so obviously I like them here. They are the biggest favorites of the week, at 88% to win, and not even 1 in 5 entrants are taking them, even in OFP. Those are two huge positives, and giving up the opportunity to take the Packers in their last 12 games isn't that big of a deal, as their remaining home schedule is fairly challenging.San Diego (vs. Arizona)The Chargers are a reasonable option, favored by eight and around 78% to win. But they're only marginally less popular than the Packers, and that's a lot of probability of advancement to give up. They'd also be nice to have later, with that Week 13 matchup with the Raiders still looking appealing.Atlanta (vs. San Francisco)The 49ers have not exactly impressed thus far, but they're only seven-point underdogs in Atlanta on Sunday. The Falcons don't have a ton of future value, with their most favorable matchup coming against the Panthers in the always unpredictable Week 17, but there's no way that's putting them ahead of Green Bay.Indianapolis (vs. Jacksonville)The Colts are favored by seven themselves, and it's all the more impressive since the game is in Jacksonville. But that also makes it quite clear that Indy will be a great option in Week 15, when they host the Jags and are extremely likely to be the biggest favorite on the board.No reason to overcomplicate things here; the Packers are the pick this week.
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