2010 Tight End thread (1 Viewer)

[TS Garp]

2009 was a great year for TE's. In 2008, 5 TE's scored more than 100 fantasy points, and only 3 were over 120. In 2009, 10 TE's were over 100 points and 6 were over 120.

Heading into 2010, there are some interesting questions.

* Can Vernon Davis and Brent Celek sustain -- or build on -- their breakout performances?

* Does Tony Gonzalez have another great season in him or is in decline?

* Of the talented young TE's (Finley, Carlson, Keller, Zach Miller, Pettigrew, Cook, etc.), who takes a step forward, who stagnates, and who takes a step back?

* Will Owen Daniels, and, to a lesser extent, Chris Cooley, pick up where they off pre-injury?

* Will Greg Olsen have any value in a Mike Martz offense? Will he still be in Chicago at all?

* Will Jason Witten start scoring TD's (only 6 in the last 2 years/175 receptions)?

Would love to hear opinions on these questions? I'm liking the prospects for Winslow (had more targets than Clark, Gates, or Celek), Keller (disappointment in 2009 but showed up in the playoffs and Sanchez will likely throw more than last year), Zach Miller (if they get a half-way decent TE), and, to a lesser extent, Brandon Pettigrew (showed some flashes last year).

Less optimistic about Heath Miller, Shiancoe, and Olsen repeating last year's performances.

 

[TS Garp]

Any opinions here?

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

IMO sell Finley in keeper

A guy I like that im trying to snag is Shawn Nelson on Buffalo

to answer your questions:

Can Vernon Davis and Brent Celek sustain -- or build on -- their breakout performances?

VD is overvalued, hes a stud no doubt, but wont live up to his ADP, target Celek in re-drafts, he screams value and his production will be close to top5

* Does Tony Gonzalez have another great season in him or is in decline? Yes he will be fine season2 in Atl

* Of the talented young TE's (Finley, Carlson, Keller, Zach Miller, Pettigrew, Cook, etc.), who takes a step forward, who stagnates, and who takes a step back?

Finley is overvalued. The rest of these guys are boderline starters in 12 man leagues. Cook seems hyped but they r bringin Sciafe back

* Will Owen Daniels, and, to a lesser extent, Chris Cooley, pick up where they off pre-injury?

Owen I belive so, CC not sure, new coach and his replacemnt played really well, TEBC?

* Will Greg Olsen have any value in a Mike Martz offense? Will he still be in Chicago at all?

Martz does not use the TE

* Will Jason Witten start scoring TD's (only 6 in the last 2 years/175 receptions)?

TE are fluky, heck he could score 10 this year and I woudlnt be surprised. The dude had 90 catches.

 

[Longshot88]

seriously , your selling Finley, and your buying Nelson..... in a keeper? I think you might want to go back and watch a few of Finleys games

 

[D'OHtis]

I'm buying Dallas Clark. I still think he's well undervalued. I don't see Peyton going anywhere anytime soon.

 

[39407]

BSS - Why do you consider Finley overvalued? Any specific reasons or is it just that the sample size is too small still?

 

[Lab]

BSS - Why do you consider Finley overvalued? Any specific reasons or is it just that the sample size is too small still?

I think he's overvalued. He's got great potential, and I think he'll certainly be a top-10 in 2010, but he's also way overhyped right now. Here's one spot where he's ranked as the #3 TE in dynasty: http://www.fantasyfootballxtreme.com/fanta...layer-rankings/ . I'm not questioning his skills or his situation (both great), but you can get better value selling him right now than in buying him. I'd rather buy someone like Witten or Celek or even Cooley/Daniels, to get similar production at a far lower price.DynastyGuys has him at #9 (http://www.dynastyguys.com/page/offensive-player-rankings), which I think is a much more reasonable ranking. But Finley is more expensive to obtain than the guys above him in that ranking.

 

[Weiner Dog]

seriously , your selling Finley, and your buying Nelson..... in a keeper? I think you might want to go back and watch a few of Finleys games

Buy low, sell high.Finley is totaling over-rated at the moment. Like Brees, Rodgers has too many options (Jennings, Finley, Driver, Jones, Nelson) and is too efficient at finding the open guy. Same can be said for Celek. With McNabb being efficient, Maclin developing into a solid #2 WR, DJax commanding his regular targets and even Jason Avant's signing, I think Celek is a sell high. Heath Miller is in my "sell high" camp, as well. As Wallace develops in PIT, he'll steal more catches from Miller from the slot. Ward will play until he's 50 and Santonio is Santanio.My two favorite "buy lows" are Zach Miller (OAK) and Justin Keller. I also like Fred Davis and Tony Scheffler, but they're obviously a gamble given their current situation and will need some help (Cooley traded...Scheffler traded).

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

seriously , your selling Finley, and your buying Nelson..... in a keeper? I think you might want to go back and watch a few of Finleys games

Im not equating the two players at all.Consider Nelson a stash type or throw in player in trades.heck I was grabbing Finley off dynasty waiver wires last off season and now Im selling high, you bet ya

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

BSS - Why do you consider Finley overvalued? Any specific reasons or is it just that the sample size is too small still?

He is overvalued based on Dynasty trades I have seen in leagues I am in. In re-draft his ADP will not warrant his production. Finley has elite level talent but I dont think his production will match given the numerous options in GB.

Buy low, sell high

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

heck I was grabbing Finley off dynasty waiver wires last off season and now Im selling high, you bet ya

This only makes sense if you think he's NOT the next big thing at TE. Elite TEs are hard to find, and way undervalued IMO - especially in leagues where you can start more than one or they're favored with 1.5/2 PPR. I've only got him in one league and agree that the asking prices are generally too high right now, but if I already owned him I'd be holding. I also think that the NFL rule changes of the last few years are allowing TEs to put up better #s, and expect last year wasn't a fluke in terms of production at the position.One guy I love for 2010+ is Anthony Fasano. I think he breaks out this year and turns into a go-to guy for Henne.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

heck I was grabbing Finley off dynasty waiver wires last off season and now Im selling high, you bet ya

This only makes sense if you think he's NOT the next big thing at TE. Elite TEs are hard to find, and way undervalued IMO - especially in leagues where you can start more than one or they're favored with 1.5/2 PPR. I've only got him in one league and agree that the asking prices are generally too high right now, but if I already owned him I'd be holding.

I also think that the NFL rule changes of the last few years are allowing TEs to put up better #s, and expect last year wasn't a fluke in terms of production at the position.

One guy I love for 2010+ is Anthony Fasano. I think he breaks out this year and turns into a go-to guy for Henne.

Yeah didnt you give up 1.03 for him? that price is too high IMO. Personally I dont think is value will ever be higher.

 

[Pipes]

I'm a homer but I don't see how you can say Finley is overvalued. The guy what 23 years old with all of the physical attributes to be a stud TE for years to come. Plus he has arguably the best young QB in the league who's just entering his prime and he's in a predominately passing offense. Sounds like a winning formula to me.

For those of you saying to sell high what would you trade him for?

I see him puting up Gates type numbers for the forseable future which is huge at the TE position. Those kind of numbers are hard to find at TE. I'm sorry I just can't see trading him for a much older TE who will probably put up lesser numbers plus some draft picks who may or not be a starter. I could see if someone offers you a stud or two in return then trade him but to me it would take an unbelieveable offer to let him go. An offer that most owners will not make. I'm just not going to trade him for a Witten and a 2nd rounder or something along those lines.

I do agree that it probably is too late to acquire him since the price will be very high to get him, but if you have him sit back and enjoy the ride.

 

[39407]

Personally I dont think is value will ever be higher.

And this is what it boils down to in the end. If you believe or not, personally I think his value is going nowhere but up (to be fair I felt almost the same way about Olsen last year, so what do I know).

 

[Mark Davis]

I actually like the ability of Zach Miller (JAC) for the cheap price you can get him for right now. He may turn out to be worthless but I believe there's good upside potential in him and you can likely get him for next to nothing.

 

[Mark Davis]

I'm a homer but I don't see how you can say Finley is overvalued. The guy what 23 years old with all of the physical attributes to be a stud TE for years to come. Plus he has arguably the best young QB in the league who's just entering his prime and he's in a predominately passing offense. Sounds like a winning formula to me.For those of you saying to sell high what would you trade him for? I see him puting up Gates type numbers for the forseable future which is huge at the TE position. Those kind of numbers are hard to find at TE. I'm sorry I just can't see trading him for a much older TE who will probably put up lesser numbers plus some draft picks who may or not be a starter. I could see if someone offers you a stud or two in return then trade him but to me it would take an unbelieveable offer to let him go. An offer that most owners will not make. I'm just not going to trade him for a Witten and a 2nd rounder or something along those lines.I do agree that it probably is too late to acquire him since the price will be very high to get him, but if you have him sit back and enjoy the ride.

I love Finley don't get me wrong. But his asking price in trades is equivalent to someone who is an Antonio Gates in his prime. He very well could be that player. If he is, what you have to pay for him is fair price. But if he falls short of that level at all, you're having to overpay to get him. I think you can still really like a player and think he's overvalued for the time being. It's like a great stock, at some point no matter how good the company is, it can be overpriced. What I think most of those in the thread who are saying he's overvalued are trying to point out is that there isn't any upside in trading for him right now. And if he isn't at least the 2nd coming of Antonio Gates, then you'll be overpaying if you trade for him today.

 

[finito]

I'm a homer but I don't see how you can say Finley is overvalued. The guy what 23 years old with all of the physical attributes to be a stud TE for years to come. Plus he has arguably the best young QB in the league who's just entering his prime and he's in a predominately passing offense. Sounds like a winning formula to me.For those of you saying to sell high what would you trade him for? I see him puting up Gates type numbers for the forseable future which is huge at the TE position. Those kind of numbers are hard to find at TE. I'm sorry I just can't see trading him for a much older TE who will probably put up lesser numbers plus some draft picks who may or not be a starter. I could see if someone offers you a stud or two in return then trade him but to me it would take an unbelieveable offer to let him go. An offer that most owners will not make. I'm just not going to trade him for a Witten and a 2nd rounder or something along those lines.I do agree that it probably is too late to acquire him since the price will be very high to get him, but if you have him sit back and enjoy the ride.

I love Finley don't get me wrong. But his asking price in trades is equivalent to someone who is an Antonio Gates in his prime. He very well could be that player. If he is, what you have to pay for him is fair price. But if he falls short of that level at all, you're having to overpay to get him. I think you can still really like a player and think he's overvalued for the time being. It's like a great stock, at some point no matter how good the company is, it can be overpriced. What I think most of those in the thread who are saying he's overvalued are trying to point out is that there isn't any upside in trading for him right now. And if he isn't at least the 2nd coming of Antonio Gates, then you'll be overpaying if you trade for him today.

I also think Finley is overvalued. I inquired about him in one league and the owner said unless he was getting an amazing deal, he wouldn't trade him (he wanted Hakeem Nicks and the 1.04 for Finley from me). I like Finley a lot but would not pay that for him, that seemed crazy; TEs are deep right now.

 

[39407]

And if he isn't at least the 2nd coming of Antonio Gates, then you'll be overpaying if you trade for him today.

Depends on your league settings imo. Like TE enhanced scoring, salary cap etc. But even in a standard league I don't think paying the 1.03 is a terrible trade, any rookie has a bust factor too. At least with this guy you've had the opportunity to see him perform at the pro level, like the playoff game where his hypetrain really took off.Seems to me draftpicks are overpriced

 

[3nOut]

I think Keller and Carlson are both underrated. I own them both and am having a hard time deciding which one to keep. I think both are pretty equal in value. I can only keeo one for next year and am looking to move one. Noth had mediocre seasons last year but both finished VERY strong. Sanchez is building chemistry with Keller but I think the Jets will be a run more team. Carlson may not be as talented but IMO is in a better situation. Leaning toward Carlson as I can probably get more for him. As I said, both are underrated and I think both will be top 10 in '10.

 

[TS Garp]

I think Keller and Carlson are both underrated. I own them both and am having a hard time deciding which one to keep. I think both are pretty equal in value. I can only keeo one for next year and am looking to move one. Noth had mediocre seasons last year but both finished VERY strong. Sanchez is building chemistry with Keller but I think the Jets will be a run more team. Carlson may not be as talented but IMO is in a better situation. Leaning toward Carlson as I can probably get more for him. As I said, both are underrated and I think both will be top 10 in '10.

I liked them both a lot going into 2009, and both disappointed. Keller was truly a bust, ending the season as TE20, while Carlson essentially repeated his rookie performance. He came out of the gate on fire with a big first game, but then got very quiet, only to pick it up again at the end of the season, scoring a TD in each of the last 4 games. As I said earlier in the thread, despite the poor 2009, I'm still bullish about Keller. I think he's a legit talent and the Jets should throw the ball a bit more this season. I think his playoff performance is a better indicator of what to expect from him. Not sure that we'll see a true break out, but something like 60-675-7 seems possible. As for Carlson, I think we need to see how the Seattle situation unfolds. I do like him, but was surprised that he wasn't targeted much more than in his rookie season, and in some games only received 2-3 targets. Should be a very different story in Seattle this season, though.

 

[gandalas]

I like Watson now. Not exactly a long-term solution, but I think he is going to have a top-10 year at TE in Cleveland.

After all, who else is going to compete for passes with him? Of course, this is dependent on them getting someone at QB.

 

[TS Garp]

According to Schefter, Cleveland outbid Seattle for Watson. That can't speak too well for Carroll's feelings about Carlson.

 

[ChainsawU]

I read in another thread that the tight end position is pretty deep regarding incoming rookies. Is that true?

If so, what do you guys think about the chances of a rookie coming in and producing this year?

 

[TS Garp]

I read in another thread that the tight end position is pretty deep regarding incoming rookies. Is that true?If so, what do you guys think about the chances of a rookie coming in and producing this year?

Gresham could/should make an immediate impact, especially if he ends up in a place like Cincinnati.

 

[karmarooster]

overvalued:

Gates

Clark

Finley

Witten

undervalued:

celek

cooley

z.miller oak

avoid:

olsen

gonzo

shiancoe (until we know about favre)

h.miller (until we know about ben)

 

[TS Garp]

overvalued:GatesClarkFinleyWittenundervalued:celekcooleyz.miller oak

Curious about why you think Gates, Clark, and Witten are overvalued. You just think they're unlikely to repeat last year's numbers?

 

[karmarooster]

overvalued:GatesClarkFinleyWittenundervalued:celekcooleyz.miller oak

Curious about why you think Gates, Clark, and Witten are overvalued. You just think they're unlikely to repeat last year's numbers?

well i'm assuming the TE draft order in re-draft will go something like Gates-Clark-Witten/Finley, and at that price there's very little margin for error. Basically if u take one of them that early, there are only two options.... you get equal value for ADP, or you get negative value. there's virtually no room for them to outperform the ADP at that level.so even if Gates or Clark ie lives up to it and is TE1 or TE2... and you paid TE1 or TE2 ADP to get them, then its a virtual push. But to answer your question, i see Gates basically performing as well, but Clark sliding a bit due to age, Collie, Garcon, and Gonzalez. It will be very difficult to catch more than 100 for a second year. witten is what he is by now... a high catch guy with low TDs and decreasing amounts of yardage because he just isn't that physically gifted. as for finley, he is a major gamble but could pay off. he has the talent to be TE1 so if you draft him at TE4 then there could be some upside. but like others have mentioned that will be difficult with all the weapons they have on offense. contrasted to someone like Gates who doesn't have to share with as many talented WRs.basically my TE strategy is usually to take someone in the 4/5-10 range who i think has the upside to be top 5.... find the sweet spot. Celek has to be at the top of any list of value TEs.

 

[TS Garp]

overvalued:GatesClarkFinleyWittenundervalued:celekcooleyz.miller oak

Curious about why you think Gates, Clark, and Witten are overvalued. You just think they're unlikely to repeat last year's numbers?

well i'm assuming the TE draft order in re-draft will go something like Gates-Clark-Witten/Finley, and at that price there's very little margin for error. Basically if u take one of them that early, there are only two options.... you get equal value for ADP, or you get negative value. there's virtually no room for them to outperform the ADP at that level.so even if Gates or Clark ie lives up to it and is TE1 or TE2... and you paid TE1 or TE2 ADP to get them, then its a virtual push. But to answer your question, i see Gates basically performing as well, but Clark sliding a bit due to age, Collie, Garcon, and Gonzalez. It will be very difficult to catch more than 100 for a second year. witten is what he is by now... a high catch guy with low TDs and decreasing amounts of yardage because he just isn't that physically gifted. as for finley, he is a major gamble but could pay off. he has the talent to be TE1 so if you draft him at TE4 then there could be some upside. but like others have mentioned that will be difficult with all the weapons they have on offense. contrasted to someone like Gates who doesn't have to share with as many talented WRs.basically my TE strategy is usually to take someone in the 4/5-10 range who i think has the upside to be top 5.... find the sweet spot. Celek has to be at the top of any list of value TEs.

This is a good post and I hear what you're saying. I actually usually employ the same strategy, but it kind of burned me last year. I took Carlson late, and he was relatively worthless for a majority of the season, btu also difficult to cut, because he had as much upside as any of the available TE's. With the elite guys -- Clark, Gates, Witten (maybe Gonzalez) -- even if they slip a bit, their floor is still very high, so you know you're almost certainly going to get TE1 production from them, barring injury. With some of the other guys, they have upside, but also significantly more downside, so you can end up in a situation where you have a problem at TE all season. I feel comfortable with Winslow, Daniels, and Celek (in addition to the names above), so I guess there are about 6-7 TE's who I feel will provide value, whether that means truly justifying their ADP or in the sense that you won't have to scramble for production at that position all year.And I'm not sure I agree that Clark is due to regress. Agree that you can't count on 100 catches again, but I still think he has very little downside. As for Witten, I generally think TD's involve a lot of luck, although it's hard to ignore how few he's scored in the last 2 years. But he's still relatively young (just turning 28) and anyone who sees the ball as much as he does can explode -- would it really be a shock if he scored 10 td's? I'm willing to take the chance, especially since he'll likely come just a bit cheaper this year.

 

[Imagine]

overvalued:GatesClarkFinleyWittenundervalued:celekcooleyz.miller oak

Curious about why you think Gates, Clark, and Witten are overvalued. You just think they're unlikely to repeat last year's numbers?

well i'm assuming the TE draft order in re-draft will go something like Gates-Clark-Witten/Finley, and at that price there's very little margin for error. Basically if u take one of them that early, there are only two options.... you get equal value for ADP, or you get negative value. there's virtually no room for them to outperform the ADP at that level.so even if Gates or Clark ie lives up to it and is TE1 or TE2... and you paid TE1 or TE2 ADP to get them, then its a virtual push. But to answer your question, i see Gates basically performing as well, but Clark sliding a bit due to age, Collie, Garcon, and Gonzalez. It will be very difficult to catch more than 100 for a second year. witten is what he is by now... a high catch guy with low TDs and decreasing amounts of yardage because he just isn't that physically gifted. as for finley, he is a major gamble but could pay off. he has the talent to be TE1 so if you draft him at TE4 then there could be some upside. but like others have mentioned that will be difficult with all the weapons they have on offense. contrasted to someone like Gates who doesn't have to share with as many talented WRs.basically my TE strategy is usually to take someone in the 4/5-10 range who i think has the upside to be top 5.... find the sweet spot. Celek has to be at the top of any list of value TEs.

This is a good post and I hear what you're saying. I actually usually employ the same strategy, but it kind of burned me last year. I took Carlson late, and he was relatively worthless for a majority of the season, btu also difficult to cut, because he had as much upside as any of the available TE's. With the elite guys -- Clark, Gates, Witten (maybe Gonzalez) -- even if they slip a bit, their floor is still very high, so you know you're almost certainly going to get TE1 production from them, barring injury. With some of the other guys, they have upside, but also significantly more downside, so you can end up in a situation where you have a problem at TE all season. I feel comfortable with Winslow, Daniels, and Celek (in addition to the names above), so I guess there are about 6-7 TE's who I feel will provide value, whether that means truly justifying their ADP or in the sense that you won't have to scramble for production at that position all year.And I'm not sure I agree that Clark is due to regress. Agree that you can't count on 100 catches again, but I still think he has very little downside. As for Witten, I generally think TD's involve a lot of luck, although it's hard to ignore how few he's scored in the last 2 years. But he's still relatively young (just turning 28) and anyone who sees the ball as much as he does can explode -- would it really be a shock if he scored 10 td's? I'm willing to take the chance, especially since he'll likely come just a bit cheaper this year.

TS - One name that hasn't been discussed here is the first guy you listed in your initial post. I think Vernon Davis, even with the possible strange QB situation in SF, has to be in there when you get to, as a minimum, the TE 4 or TE5 position. I do like karmarooster’s list too, and think that Davis may even fall into the overvalued category. Thoughts on Davis?

 

[TS Garp]

overvalued:GatesClarkFinleyWittenundervalued:celekcooleyz.miller oak

Curious about why you think Gates, Clark, and Witten are overvalued. You just think they're unlikely to repeat last year's numbers?

well i'm assuming the TE draft order in re-draft will go something like Gates-Clark-Witten/Finley, and at that price there's very little margin for error. Basically if u take one of them that early, there are only two options.... you get equal value for ADP, or you get negative value. there's virtually no room for them to outperform the ADP at that level.so even if Gates or Clark ie lives up to it and is TE1 or TE2... and you paid TE1 or TE2 ADP to get them, then its a virtual push. But to answer your question, i see Gates basically performing as well, but Clark sliding a bit due to age, Collie, Garcon, and Gonzalez. It will be very difficult to catch more than 100 for a second year. witten is what he is by now... a high catch guy with low TDs and decreasing amounts of yardage because he just isn't that physically gifted. as for finley, he is a major gamble but could pay off. he has the talent to be TE1 so if you draft him at TE4 then there could be some upside. but like others have mentioned that will be difficult with all the weapons they have on offense. contrasted to someone like Gates who doesn't have to share with as many talented WRs.basically my TE strategy is usually to take someone in the 4/5-10 range who i think has the upside to be top 5.... find the sweet spot. Celek has to be at the top of any list of value TEs.

This is a good post and I hear what you're saying. I actually usually employ the same strategy, but it kind of burned me last year. I took Carlson late, and he was relatively worthless for a majority of the season, btu also difficult to cut, because he had as much upside as any of the available TE's. With the elite guys -- Clark, Gates, Witten (maybe Gonzalez) -- even if they slip a bit, their floor is still very high, so you know you're almost certainly going to get TE1 production from them, barring injury. With some of the other guys, they have upside, but also significantly more downside, so you can end up in a situation where you have a problem at TE all season. I feel comfortable with Winslow, Daniels, and Celek (in addition to the names above), so I guess there are about 6-7 TE's who I feel will provide value, whether that means truly justifying their ADP or in the sense that you won't have to scramble for production at that position all year.And I'm not sure I agree that Clark is due to regress. Agree that you can't count on 100 catches again, but I still think he has very little downside. As for Witten, I generally think TD's involve a lot of luck, although it's hard to ignore how few he's scored in the last 2 years. But he's still relatively young (just turning 28) and anyone who sees the ball as much as he does can explode -- would it really be a shock if he scored 10 td's? I'm willing to take the chance, especially since he'll likely come just a bit cheaper this year.

TS - One name that hasn't been discussed here is the first guy you listed in your initial post. I think Vernon Davis, even with the possible strange QB situation in SF, has to be in there when you get to, as a minimum, the TE 4 or TE5 position. I do like karmarooster’s list too, and think that Davis may even fall into the overvalued category. Thoughts on Davis?

I don't think it's reasonable to expect 13 td's again, but, at the same time, he'll be in the same offensive system for the first time in awhile, so he may actually get better. He's clearly a focal point of the offense and no one has ever questioned his athleticism. He still drops too many passes, so if he can curb that issue and continue to click with Alex Smith, I think he has upside. I just wouldn't pay for 12+ td's. Early projection would be something like 82/980/8.

 

[karmarooster]

Yes that's a good point, i pretty much forgot about vernon davis. including him, i predict the redraft ADP order to be:

[*]Gates

[*]Clark

[*]Davis

[*]Witten

[*]Finley

and TS... i feel your pain re: Carlson. however i think he was just a bit south of the line i would draw between starter and backup quality TE. basically in that 7-12 range, guys are either great values/starter quality (heath miller) or very over valued busts/backup quality (carlson).

last year i took Clark as the TE4 off the board. i probably won 3 to 4 weeks thanks to him dropping 25+ points to supplement my RBs and WRs.

i guess i could refine my strategy a bit to be "Don't draft one of the first 3 TEs, but try to get yours before the TE 8-10 range."

if Finley were to fall to TE5 he represents a great pick... risky, but potentially a league winner. at 5 he has a chance to outperform his ADP.

re: witten, i actually would be very surprised for him to score 10+ TDs as he's never done it before. in fact 7, 6, 6, 4, 2, 1, 1 are his TD totals. at this point it' just not going to happen. i took him in one league last year and was severely disappointed even tho he caught 94 for 1,000 yards.

Targets based on predicted ADP:

5. Finley

6. Celek

7. Z.Miller

8. Winslow

9. Cooley?

there are at least 4-5 other guys who could be in this range based on personal preference. it certainly takes skill as well as luck to pick one of these diamonds in the rough.

and as for Gonzo, he's really not on my board at all because of his declining skills, and his name recognition all but assures him to be taken too early.

 

[EBF]

Celek is probably the top ranked guy on my avoid list. He really had a monster year in 2009 and I think it will be hard for him to duplicate those numbers with Maclin and McCoy developing. I also think that he's kind of a reckless player who could struggle with durability (ala Shockey), though I have nothing concrete on which to base this opinion.

I'm liking Fred Davis as a dynasty buy low candidate. I think he's the same player as Zach Miller with less short term opportunity. It's only a matter of time until he's a productive NFL starter and a mid-level TE1 in FF leagues.

Winslow and Carlson seem like good plays in redraft and dynasty leagues. I think Keller and Cook have upside.

 

[TS Garp]

re: witten, i actually would be very surprised for him to score 10+ TDs as he's never done it before. in fact 7, 6, 6, 4, 2, 1, 1 are his TD totals. at this point it' just not going to happen. i took him in one league last year and was severely disappointed even tho he caught 94 for 1,000 yards.and as for Gonzo, he's really not on my board at all because of his declining skills, and his name recognition all but assures him to be taken too early.

As far as Witten goes, has anyone looked inside the numbers -- do the Cowboys not target him in the red zone? I'd be curious to hear more on this from some Cowboy homers. I still think there's just some bad luck involved here.I always used to think that Gonzalez was overrated, but I think that he'd oddly reached the point where he's becoming underrated and forgotten about. I guess it depends on the league but I actually think he'll slip in many drafts (I saw this starting to happen last year). The age is a concern, but I was surprised to see how much he was targeted when I looked at the numbers and he's in a great situation in Atlanta.Anyway, great discussion...

 

[bonesman]

avoid:

olsen

gonzo

shiancoe (until we know about favre)

h.miller (until we know about ben)

Why?

He actually finished higher in FBG scoring the year before (5th vs 6th) with only Tavaris and Ferotte hucking it.

His ceiling is obviously higher w/ a HOFer under center but I think he still finishes as a serviceable TE1, great TE2 in 2010 if Favre remains retired (or whatever).

 

[FUBAR]

* Can Vernon Davis and Brent Celek sustain -- or build on -- their breakout performances? Celek's yardage and receptions will decrease, but he's decent value and his TDs remain at or above 8; VD regresses some, won't get near 1,000 yards or over 10 TDs

* Does Tony Gonzalez have another great season in him or is in decline? decline but still decent value

* Of the talented young TE's (Finley, Carlson, Keller, Zach Miller, Pettigrew, Cook, etc.), who takes a step forward, who stagnates, and who takes a step back? Cook steps forward but not a leap yet, I like Pettigrew and Keller; Finley is a stud but overpriced

* Will Owen Daniels, and, to a lesser extent, Chris Cooley, pick up where they off pre-injury? yes to both, Cooley is a true value play right now

* Will Greg Olsen have any value in a Mike Martz offense? Will he still be in Chicago at all? I still like the kid but he screams player whose production will never meet his talent

* Will Jason Witten start scoring TD's (only 6 in the last 2 years/175 receptions)? I think so, as teams account even more for Austin, Witten will be the outlet including in the end zone, my only small concern is how involved Felix might be

If I owned him anywhere, I'd be selling Heath Miller if the trade value is close to where last year's production would indicate it should be. I won't buy because any offer I'd make could seem insulting to a person trying to get that value.

 

[Moonlight_Graham]

seriously , your selling Finley, and your buying Nelson..... in a keeper? I think you might want to go back and watch a few of Finleys games

Buy low, sell high.Finley is totaling over-rated at the moment. Like Brees, Rodgers has too many options (Jennings, Finley, Driver, Jones, Nelson) and is too efficient at finding the open guy. Same can be said for Celek. With McNabb being efficient, Maclin developing into a solid #2 WR, DJax commanding his regular targets and even Jason Avant's signing, I think Celek is a sell high. Heath Miller is in my "sell high" camp, as well. As Wallace develops in PIT, he'll steal more catches from Miller from the slot. Ward will play until he's 50 and Santonio is Santanio.

My two favorite "buy lows" are Zach Miller (OAK) and Justin Keller. I also like Fred Davis and Tony Scheffler, but they're obviously a gamble given their current situation and will need some help (Cooley traded...Scheffler traded).

Yeah, that's right, let's trade all of our players that do well. They're all overrated and overhyped and don't have a chance at repeating their past success. You people kill me sometimes.

 

[finito]

seriously , your selling Finley, and your buying Nelson..... in a keeper? I think you might want to go back and watch a few of Finleys games

Buy low, sell high.Finley is totaling over-rated at the moment. Like Brees, Rodgers has too many options (Jennings, Finley, Driver, Jones, Nelson) and is too efficient at finding the open guy. Same can be said for Celek. With McNabb being efficient, Maclin developing into a solid #2 WR, DJax commanding his regular targets and even Jason Avant's signing, I think Celek is a sell high. Heath Miller is in my "sell high" camp, as well. As Wallace develops in PIT, he'll steal more catches from Miller from the slot. Ward will play until he's 50 and Santonio is Santanio.

My two favorite "buy lows" are Zach Miller (OAK) and Justin Keller. I also like Fred Davis and Tony Scheffler, but they're obviously a gamble given their current situation and will need some help (Cooley traded...Scheffler traded).

Yeah, that's right, let's trade all of our players that do well. They're all overrated and overhyped and don't have a chance at repeating their past success. You people kill me sometimes.

I'm sort of in agreement that Finley is overrated. It's not that he isn't very good with a high ceiling, it's that many have already anointed him as a "better Antonio Gates." Gates is arguably the best recieving TE to ever play, so to put Finley on that level (and value him that much) seems a tad premature. I inquired about him to one owner, who replied "Finley is a lock for 20 pts a game for the next 8 years. It would take a king's ransom for him." Think about that for a second - a "lock" for 20 pts a game. That's ridiculous. This owner said they would "maybe" entertain the notion of trading me Finley for Kenny Britt and the 1.02. Does anyone really think Finley is worth that?

 

[Moonlight_Graham]

seriously , your selling Finley, and your buying Nelson..... in a keeper? I think you might want to go back and watch a few of Finleys games

Buy low, sell high.Finley is totaling over-rated at the moment. Like Brees, Rodgers has too many options (Jennings, Finley, Driver, Jones, Nelson) and is too efficient at finding the open guy. Same can be said for Celek. With McNabb being efficient, Maclin developing into a solid #2 WR, DJax commanding his regular targets and even Jason Avant's signing, I think Celek is a sell high. Heath Miller is in my "sell high" camp, as well. As Wallace develops in PIT, he'll steal more catches from Miller from the slot. Ward will play until he's 50 and Santonio is Santanio.

My two favorite "buy lows" are Zach Miller (OAK) and Justin Keller. I also like Fred Davis and Tony Scheffler, but they're obviously a gamble given their current situation and will need some help (Cooley traded...Scheffler traded).

Yeah, that's right, let's trade all of our players that do well. They're all overrated and overhyped and don't have a chance at repeating their past success. You people kill me sometimes.

I'm sort of in agreement that Finley is overrated. It's not that he isn't very good with a high ceiling, it's that many have already anointed him as a "better Antonio Gates." Gates is arguably the best recieving TE to ever play, so to put Finley on that level (and value him that much) seems a tad premature. I inquired about him to one owner, who replied "Finley is a lock for 20 pts a game for the next 8 years. It would take a king's ransom for him." Think about that for a second - a "lock" for 20 pts a game. That's ridiculous. This owner said they would "maybe" entertain the notion of trading me Finley for Kenny Britt and the 1.02. Does anyone really think Finley is worth that?

Overrated doesn't always mean to sell. I've seen owners take a perfectly good dynasty team and ruin it because of this mentality.

 

[Stinkin Ref]

was there a change in production for Celek when Kolb was pulling the trigger for a few games last year....?

 

[drfeelgood]

was there a change in production for Celek when Kolb was pulling the trigger for a few games last year....?

He was very productive with Kolb under center. He was Kolb's security blanket.

 

[thriftyrocker]

was there a change in production for Celek when Kolb was pulling the trigger for a few games last year....?

Yes. Positive. He had 8 catches both games for 100 yards each.

 

[Christo]

was there a change in production for Celek when Kolb was pulling the trigger for a few games last year....?

He was very productive with Kolb under center. He was Kolb's security blanket.

was there a change in production for Celek when Kolb was pulling the trigger for a few games last year....?

Yes. Positive. He had 8 catches both games for 100 yards each.

Does anyone else expect those numbers to decrease as Kolb becomes more comfortable as the starter and no longer needs a "security blanket?"

 

[JetMaxx]

was there a change in production for Celek when Kolb was pulling the trigger for a few games last year....?

He was very productive with Kolb under center. He was Kolb's security blanket.

was there a change in production for Celek when Kolb was pulling the trigger for a few games last year....?

Yes. Positive. He had 8 catches both games for 100 yards each.

Does anyone else expect those numbers to decrease as Kolb becomes more comfortable as the starter and no longer needs a "security blanket?"

Obviously they will go down. However, Kolb has shown he will go to Celek and DJax and Maclin will draw alot of attention. Celek=$$$ if Kolb is the QB.

 

[dynastyguru32]

So where do you think you would take Finley in a rookie/FA dynasty draft?

 

[burgundy and gold]

Crumpler?

 

[David Yudkin]

overvalued:GatesClarkFinleyWittenundervalued:celekcooleyz.miller oak

Curious about why you think Gates, Clark, and Witten are overvalued. You just think they're unlikely to repeat last year's numbers?

Based on end of season value, even with TE scoring twice what it was 20 years ago for TEs, there still is not much fantasy value for TEs in 12 team leagues that start only one TE.Here were the numbers I posted from my other thread on player values . . .TE VBD levels (Players with values of 100, 75, 50, 25)09 0, 1, 3, 408 0, 1, 1, 407 0, 1, 5, 606 0, 0, 1, 505 0, 1, 1, 704 1, 2, 3, 803 0, 1, 2, 302 0, 0, 2, 401 0, 0, 1, 200 1, 1, 2, 699 0, 2, 3, 398 0, 0, 1, 397 0, 0, 3, 696 1, 1, 3, 595 0, 0, 1, 694 1, 1, 4, 693 0, 1, 3, 992 0, 0, 0, 391 0, 0, 3, 690 0, 0, 0, 4Basically, TE scoring has gone up for enough TEs that even though the top guys are scroing well, so many other players are scoring well too that the two cancel each other out.As long as you get someone in the Top 12 tight ends at some point, you are not hurting your team. Investing in an early round TE, though, probably hurts your cause more than helps it, as there will still be decent options later on if you don't pull the trigger early.

 

[David Yudkin]

Crumpler?

I would vote no on Crumpler. He was brought in to block and the Pats hardly use the TE position as a receiving threat. Just look at how lackluster the their TE totals have been (even pre-Welker).NE will likely draft a pass catching TE to use as a limited receiving threat (mostly in the end zone). I don't see any way Crumpler comes close to his Atlanta numbers. If they do opt to forgo bringing in another TE, Crumpler could be in line for 5-6 TD but not a lot of receptions or receiving yards. But I would not expect much beyond that.

 

[Sabertooth]

Finley is excellent. He's in an excellent situation. He's a 2 year veteran who is still younger than some incoming rookies. He is primed to be the next Gates.

 

[therokie0070]

while Finley and VD are overvalued for trading purposes lets face it TE are normally undervalued over all. VD flat out was the main reason I made it to the championship last year. I cant tell you how many teams I have had that lost or won in the playoffs because of TEs, and I will target VD and finley this year because I think during FF playoffs the fact they are young (less likely to be injuried or slow down)and on teams that will need play all 16 games to make the playoffs (unlike players like D Clark and in the past Gates etc etc)

 

[BigTex]

re: witten, i actually would be very surprised for him to score 10+ TDs as he's never done it before. in fact 7, 6, 6, 4, 2, 1, 1 are his TD totals. at this point it' just not going to happen. i took him in one league last year and was severely disappointed even tho he caught 94 for 1,000 yards.

and as for Gonzo, he's really not on my board at all because of his declining skills, and his name recognition all but assures him to be taken too early.

As far as Witten goes, has anyone looked inside the numbers -- do the Cowboys not target him in the red zone? I'd be curious to hear more on this from some Cowboy homers. I still think there's just some bad luck involved here.I always used to think that Gonzalez was overrated, but I think that he'd oddly reached the point where he's becoming underrated and forgotten about. I guess it depends on the league but I actually think he'll slip in many drafts (I saw this starting to happen last year). The age is a concern, but I was surprised to see how much he was targeted when I looked at the numbers and he's in a great situation in Atlanta.

Anyway, great discussion...

Witten avg about 8-9 targets a game which is damn good but in the redzone not so much. It seem as if the Cowboys ran more in the redzone than usual and my guess is to not only establish the running game, control the clock but also cut down on some of those bone-headed mistakes by Romo, which clearly worked. Sometime Romo would target a player Tooooo much in the Redzone, I remember games in which both Miles Austin and Roy Williams received 2 or 3 targets on the same drive not even looking at the TEs no matter who was player. There were times in which Witten was open and didn't even look he way.....ARGGGGG!!!Anyway, Witten had chance to score but only to come up short. There were numerous of time where he caught passes only to be tackled inside the 1 or 5 yard line, chalk them us as missed opportunities. Witten is very physical and a hard worker but not very fast. He'll push a defender out of the way for extra yardage, side-step for extra yardage and if the defender falls he can take it to the house.

In conclusion, he could have easily had double digit TDs and if you own him don't worry it's going to get much better. More of Feilx, Cryaton, and Olgetree will be great for Witten.