2012 RB surprises (1 Viewer)

[saintfool]

I dig this thread. Great insight already. One situation to watch for me is how the RB touches play out in MIA. Bush had a very strong second half of the season, showing a level of play as a RB that he hadn't shown to this point in his career. From weeks 8-16 (he was out in week 17), he averaged over 20 touches (17 rush/3 recept) per game with a very strong 5.5 ypc. I suspect that either Bush (RB20 on this list) or Thomas is going to way outperform their draft position. My money is on Bush, but it's not a heavy bet as I'm still a bit concerned about injury.

i think Bush will still get that 20 touch average but it'll split more evenly (10-12 rush/8-10 rec). it will also be a way to keep him healthy over the course of a season.

 

[ImTheScientist]

I agree with a lot of points you made but I could not stomach taking Lynch in the first round let alone at 5.

Just wait. You'll see. That's why I highlighted him in blue. He's going to be a guy we should've seen coming but everyone was too busy calling him a plodder. Seattle's offense is a decent unit, scoring 30 TDs last year. They look to be improved this year with a healthy o-line, a healthy S.Rice, and Flynn at QB. Lynch got 285 carries in 15 games last year, and really saw his touches/game increase in the second half when they started doing well (188 carries for 806 yds 8 TD, 16 rec for 121 yds 1 TD). So I think we're looking at one of the very few 300 carry backs of 2012. Not to mention his coach feeds him near the end zone. I like his chances of being top 5 better than anyone outside of Foster, McCoy, Rice, and Mathews. Forsett, their 3rd down back, is no longer with the team. So it's possible that Lynch not only sees 300-330 carries, but also improves upon his 28 receptions from last year.People forget all too soon, that with Tarvaris Jackson at QB, Lynch was the only RB to either run for 100 yards or score on SF all season. I can't remember which one they hadn't allowed, but this plodder did both while he went for over 5 yards a carry against SF (21 carries, 107 yds, 1 TD, 2 rec, 24 yds).It might be time to forget what everyone thinks they know about this guy. He just turned 26 and was once a highly touted first round draft pick.

 

[FF Ninja]

I disagree with almost everything in your response, but that's okay as I understand where you're coming from. It just seems like we differ on the perceived talent of a lot of the RBs in question, which will obviously skew our views of things quite a bit and we probably won't be able to convince each other differently.

If our eyes see things differently, that's just the way it is. However, I also try to rely heavily on what I can infer from the actions of NFL teams. For example, you are quick to shrug off the fact that a new coaching staff came into Tampa, saw a team with a ton of holes and still was willing to trade-up to get back into the 1st and draft Doug Martin. Sure, it was a late 1st, but that is still a pretty significant investment in a RB. If they were actually high on Blount at all, no way they make that pick. They could have used help at TE (Fleener), CB (Jenkins), DE (Upshaw), etc. but instead chose to trade up and get Martin.

I'm not quick to shrug it off, but we've both seen first round picks bust (or take a couple years to develop). Martin doesn't even have to bust in 2012. He could play pretty well and still not be as effective as Blount. And I've heard the argument before stating they didn't trade all those picks not to play [insert name here], but ultimately you play to win the game. If Blount is running for 5.0 ypc next year and Martin is putting up 4.2 ypc then who do you think will be getting carries in week 14 when it really matters to us?

Similarly, you can make all kinds of arguments for Hillis' talent based on injuries, YPC, etc. However, he was a FA this offseason and every single team in the NFL could have made him an offer. The best he could do was a 1 year offer for about $2 million. That's a pretty good indicator of his market value. I'd argue that my perception of his talent level is more in line with that of NFL professionals who evaluate talent for a living than yours is...

We can speculate on what really happened all day. Maybe Hillis didn't like the longer offers he was receiving and Daboll said, come to KC with me and let's win some games in 2012 and get you the contract you deserve in 2013. Stranger things have happened. Randy Moss was once traded for a 4th rounder. Roy Williams was once traded for a 1st, a 3rd, and a 5th. Don't place too much value on contracts and trades unless it makes you feel better about your own assessment.

As for some of your other points...Cleveland drafted Mitchell Schwartz at the top of the 2nd round. He was considered to be the best RT in the draft and an instant plug and play starter who excels as a run blocker. Cleveland now has a stud at LT (Joe Thomas), a stud at C (Alex Mack) and have upgraded RT, their weakest OL position last year. Their OGs aren't great, but to me OT and C are the 3 most important positions on the OL. Again, they've invested significant resources (2 1st rounders and an early 2nd rounder) into getting somve talented run blocking OL. As to your point about Shurmur, he gave SJax a ton of touches as OC in St. Louis. I think Richardson at his age is a better talent than Sjax was in his 8th year and that Cleveland's OL is better than that STL O Line. I'll take Richardson in the 2nd round all day. I wonder what you see in Seattle's offense that makes it so much more attractive than Cleveland's...

Robert Gallery was drafted at the top of the 1st round and was considered to be the best LT in the draft and an instant plug and play starter, but we all know how that worked out. Let's not book Schwartz a ticket to Hawaii yet (wait, isn't that cancelled anyway?). For the run game, I think the OG position is more important than OT and C. At the very least, they are on par. And relying on a rookie tackle is risky. I'm not feeling as confident in the Cleveland OL as you are.

With regard to the Bengals v. Pats offensive discussion. There are benefits and drawbacks to different offensive schemes. Sure, against the Pats teams have extra DBs on the field and have to focus on the pass. On first glance, that should make it easy for the RBs to dominate. However, BJGE was also running behind an OL that excelled as pass blockers, not run blockers (tall skinny OTs, undersized but quick C, etc.). He had a finesse move TE in Hernandez out there instead of a bruising FB. He had undersized WRs like Welker who didn't exactly block great. In Cincy, he'll be behind an OL that is built to run the football. The right side of the line for example has RT Andre Smith, a recent top 10 draft pick who is really coming into his own and is a hell of a run blocker. RG Kevin Zeitler, a mauler from Wisconsin, was just drafted in the 1st round. The Bengals have a bowling ball of a FB in Chris Pressley (another Wisconsin guy). And their slot WR is likely to be Mohammad Sanu, who is a huge, tough, physical blocker. Maybe the Ds will be more focused on stopping the run (though Green's presence keeps them honest), but the offensive talent is also more geared towards excelling in the run game as opposed to a spread, shotgun, pass-first offense. There may be 7 in the box instead of 6, but that's not the only variable in the YPC equation.

As far as scoring chances, the stats have been posted on here in other threads, but the Bengals had more RB rushing attempts inside the 5 yard line than the Pats did last year, despite the rookie QB vs. Brady's historic season. Not sure why that should change. And I like BJGE's chances of getting the majority of those chances vs. the Pats RBs possibly sharing them.

This sounds like a whole boatload of conjecture. I don't have the time to fact check all this about the NE o-line being tall and skinny or that Welker is a poor blocker. But I will question a rookie slot receiver's effectiveness. That you are even throwing that out makes it seem like you are grasping at straws. Additionally, the fact that the Bengals had more rushing attempts inside the five and only came away with 9 rushing TDs (I know a few of them had to be outside the five) can't be a good sign. Should they shift towards passes to Green/Gresham then BJGE's value further diminishes.I did a quick check, and according to these stats, NE ranked 2nd in run blocking while Cincy ranked 20th. Getting rid of BJGE just might bump NE to #1 this year.

 

[johnadams]

I dig this thread. Great insight already. One situation to watch for me is how the RB touches play out in MIA. Bush had a very strong second half of the season, showing a level of play as a RB that he hadn't shown to this point in his career. From weeks 8-16 (he was out in week 17), he averaged over 20 touches (17 rush/3 recept) per game with a very strong 5.5 ypc. I suspect that either Bush (RB20 on this list) or Thomas is going to way outperform their draft position. My money is on Bush, but it's not a heavy bet as I'm still a bit concerned about injury.

i think Bush will still get that 20 touch average but it'll split more evenly (10-12 rush/8-10 rec). it will also be a way to keep him healthy over the course of a season.

I think 20 is a bit much, especially at that rec rate, but I could see 18 with 13 rush/5 rec as a pretty good standard. Keeping his production per touch from a year ago, that would put him in the 18ppg territory for PPR leagues, which would be good enough to be top 10. While not elite, I'll take that kind of production from a fourth round pick.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

hahahaha.....where do you get this idea that the new england line is poor at run blocking?

loooool

simply because their tackles might be 15 lbs lighter?

where was gronkowski on your list of deficiencies?

and why i sour "undersized but quick C" nearly the exact same size as cincy's supposedly 'built to run block' center?

for that matter, if the cincy line is built to run block, while ne has this anemic blocking unit, why did ne (ranking 3rd in the league)have nearly twice as many rushing td's last year?

is it because they rode on benny's back, and this cincy o-line is going to finally unleash the beast?

anyway, it's a team game, and maybe ne backs face a lot more nickel/dime than they do in cincy, making the blocking a bit easier, but that's all cooked into the final results, and ne has been running the ball well for years.

I absolutely love benny as a player, but let's not get all crazy about it.

as for hillis -- it's true that lack of interest is a bit damning, but don't you think it means something that the guy's former oc, who had seen him every day, ends up being the guy to recruit him?

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

also, I think ninja referenced pff's 'elusive rating' to pump up blount, or for whatever reason.

I'm not knocking it, but let's keep a few things in mind....

the elusive rating is roughly a 1-100 point scale (higher is better), and here are some results from 2010 to point towards 2011.

1st blount - 90

3rd torain - 58

4th from last ray rice - 12

2nd to last beanie - 8

(a player ninja was high on for 2011)

here are some 2011 excerpts

(bottom 10)

ray rice - 21

hillis - 17

 

[saintfool]

I dig this thread. Great insight already. One situation to watch for me is how the RB touches play out in MIA. Bush had a very strong second half of the season, showing a level of play as a RB that he hadn't shown to this point in his career. From weeks 8-16 (he was out in week 17), he averaged over 20 touches (17 rush/3 recept) per game with a very strong 5.5 ypc. I suspect that either Bush (RB20 on this list) or Thomas is going to way outperform their draft position. My money is on Bush, but it's not a heavy bet as I'm still a bit concerned about injury.

i think Bush will still get that 20 touch average but it'll split more evenly (10-12 rush/8-10 rec). it will also be a way to keep him healthy over the course of a season.

I think 20 is a bit much, especially at that rec rate, but I could see 18 with 13 rush/5 rec as a pretty good standard. Keeping his production per touch from a year ago, that would put him in the 18ppg territory for PPR leagues, which would be good enough to be top 10. While not elite, I'll take that kind of production from a fourth round pick.

i think he's going to be on the field a lot. he's their best, most proven receiver and should be their QB's ffavorite target. he'll get 3rd downs, certainly, and those 8-10 rushing attempts per game too. he won't see special team either. he'll be on the field and that gives him value.

 

[FF Ninja]

also, I think ninja referenced pff's 'elusive rating' to pump up blount, or for whatever reason.I'm not knocking it, but let's keep a few things in mind....the elusive rating is roughly a 1-100 point scale (higher is better), and here are some results from 2010 to point towards 2011.1st blount - 903rd torain - 584th from last ray rice - 122nd to last beanie - 8(a player ninja was high on for 2011)here are some 2011 excerpts(bottom 10)ray rice - 21hillis - 17

I appreciate the devil's advocate approach, but first I'd like to point out that these "elusive ratings" are a product of two metrics: yards after contact and missed tackles. As a Ray Rice owner in 2009 and 2010, I can't say I'm very surprised. In 2010, the elusive rating has him down for 308 carries and only 5 missed tackles. He did have 15 missed tackles on receptions. He seems to do much better in the open field, but on his carries he doesn't create a lot of missed tackles - at least from the games I watched - nor does he drag defenders. He takes what his line gives him and that seems to work well enough. If you've watched Blount play, the guy does power through tackles and sometimes he does dance a bit too much, but his desire not to go down has cost him some fumbles while also making the highlight reels on other plays.Beanie dealt with a lot of injuries in 2010, IIRC, which was a big part of why they drafted Ryan Williams and why fantasy owners were so down on him. We saw what he did in 2011 despite a poor offense, poor offensive line, and some injuries. You'll also notice he did not finish at the bottom of the elusive rankings in 2011, further proof that injuries held him back in 2010. Speaking of injuries, why mention Hillis in 2011? His injuries were MRI verified.Sure, Torain made the list in 2010 and didn't do well in 2011 (aside from week 3). I don't think anyone could argue that he didn't have a good 2010. But that's why it is good to look back at least 2 years. Fred Jackson finished #2 in 2010 and #2 in 2011. Lynch made the list both years. I think guys like Lynch, Jackson, and Stewart should at least be given a deeper look. There is something to be said for guys that consistenty gain yards after contact and/or force defenders to miss. But obviously guys like Steven Jackson and Ray Rice can afford to give up the extra yards after contact if they are getting over 350 touches...

 

[Touchdown There]

The subtitle of this thread is "attempt at early hindsight". Honestly, I do not get it. Hindsight is a term associated with reflecting after an event. In this case, the 2012 NFL statistics. Predictions or forecasting happen before the event.

How does this thread differ from others that are attempting to find value in RBs with projections?

 

[FF Ninja]

The subtitle of this thread is "attempt at early hindsight". Honestly, I do not get it. Hindsight is a term associated with reflecting after an event. In this case, the 2012 NFL statistics. Predictions or forecasting happen before the event.How does this thread differ from others that are attempting to find value in RBs with projections?

First of all, which threads are you talking about?Second, yes, hindsight is after the fact. That's the point of this thread. To uncover information that could possibly be the crystal clear hindsight that, in 6 months, we'll be talking about and wondering how we missed it. Unlike most discussion, I was hoping to buck conventional wisdom. To throw out some projections that aren't all 5% within each other... like the staff projections here - not a single projection bucks the general consensus. Actually, I can't say that definitively, because I stopped looking at the projections last year. I've gotten so sick of them. Try to think of a situation that is totally up in the air that no one can pin down, and then look at the projections. They're all the same. Actually, I just looked up Peyton Manning - probably the most unpredictable situation. Less than a 10% fluctuation in staff projections. Will Sam Bradford bounce back? Out of four projections, the range is a very narrow 3269 - 3325 yds. I'm surprised, there actually was a little discrepancy in how the NE RBs would shake out. But I hope you get the point. Trying to encourage some outside the box thoughts on a board where people typically just agree to jump on hype trains together or kick a player when he's down.

 

[butcher boy]

The shark pool isnt that busy to begin with right now. Who cares if there's some repetition in thread topics?

 

[Touchdown There]

The shark pool isnt that busy to begin with right now. Who cares if there's some repetition in thread topics?

Not me. I enjoy a good discussion on RB values. The point is that the word "hindsight" is used when looking backwards. Marshawn Lynch at #5 overall? It is very hard for me to take the thread seriously when I see a list like this and then a closure statement of:

Serious discussion only please. Don't respond with turd responses like "Duh, JC is a stud and Hillis is a quitter.

The OP wants some "hindsight" so I am game. In response to your blue colored value players:- Lynch: Stay far away. Seattle is not going to improve. They are likely to be in the bottom half of NFL offenses. Lynch has some Randy Moss in him. He only runs hard when he wants to. You know what his twitter handle is? @MoneyLynch He was just paid by Seattle and the chance of him landing as the #5 back is very slim. With the #5 pick, I want much more than a mediocre RB who was just paid.- Shonn Greene: Plodder with few receptions. If you play in a PPR, he should be off your draft list let alone a value pick.- Hillis: Maybe, but at his ADP I want a guaranteed starter, not the #2 RB on a team.- Ingram: Plodder with chronic knee issues and Sproles would have to go down with injury for Ingram to be a part of a 2-man RBBC. Value pick at #84 overall? My "hindsight" says no way.- Ridley: 4-man RBBC in NE on a passing offense.- Starks: Maybe. Decent pick if you can get him late AND he can stay healthy. I like him 10x better then Ingram and Ridley ranked above him.- Donald Brown: Another maybe, but Indy is expected to be in the bottom 1/3rd of the NFL. Eliminate the suck.- Blount: Doug Martin is in red, Blount is blue, for value. They gave Blount a 1 year deal at near the league minimum and then selected Martin in the first round. Doug Martin is going to be the man and Blount will not like it one bit. I doubt Blount is on the team in 2013.- Kevin Smith: The only guy on your list with a real shot at super-value.My "hindsight" is telling me to go for value with Roy Helu (round 6), David Wilson (round 8), Daniel Thomas (round 11) and super late with Kevin Smith (round 14). Reggie Bush is expected to be split out wide more often and I think we will see Daniel Thomas in the primary RB role. Bush is also in a contract year with new coaches.As for your Beanie Wells pick in 2011, it is trash. He ran for a measly 1000 yards with 10 receptions after his primary competition went down for the year in camp. And for good measure OP, the elusive ratings that you posted have no meaning at all.

 

[Warhogs]

These guys are pretty hard to predict because most of the times it takes injuries to the guys at the top of the depth chart to create opportunities. Sometimes the opportunity comes from poor play of the top of the depth chart too but I feel injury is the most likely cause of that opportunity.

I suppose you can focus on guys where the guys at the top of the depth chart seem injury prone. I think I would focus on depth on teams that traditionally put up good rushing statistics for their top ball carrier.

 

[ponchsox]

I'm loading up on RB in the mid rounds this year with the hope that one or two pans out. No way am I burning a 1st or 2nd round pick on a RB who will miss multiple games or is on the downside of his career.

 

[Sabertooth]

James Starks finishes in the top 20 this season because, well...he's the Packers starting running back and they are going to score a ####-load of points.

1100 yards

300 receiving

8 total touchdowns.

 

[FF Ninja]

You'd probably get a lot less "turd posts" if you stopped calling people "special" or referred to people's projections and opinions as worthless or meaningless if they differ from your own.

I'm actually looking for opinions other than my own. Read his response. Nothing in there constitutes a well thought out response. Lynch is garbage because he got paid? Great insight... Then he throws out an unsupported blanket statement that Seattle will be worse this year. Ok, that clears it all up. He calls Greene and Ingram plodders again (useless and unoriginal). Dismisses Hillis because he wants a guaranteed starter at RB32 - good luck with that. Dismisses Ridley because of a "4-man RBBC in a passing offense" despite my mention of BJGE putting up RB2 numbers in that very same offense for the last two years. He cites the same old "they drafting him in the first round" argument for Martin/Blount - like this hasn't been proven wrong in the past and/or it is a new angle on the topic.He tops it off by calling Beanie's 2011 season "trash" despite the fact that he put up RB15 production during the fantasy season while missing a game and his QB situation totally imploding. I mean, really? That statement was both inflammatory and incorrect.

The only semblance of thought was in his bit about Reggie being split out wide while Daniel Thomas plays the traditional RB. That's not bad rationale, but it was buried in quips and dismissive, unsupported statements. I honestly glossed over that part when I skimmed the post. But it doesn't change the overall substance much. He's clearly not trying to have a real discussion here so I've got no use for him.

 

[FF Ninja]

James Starks finishes in the top 20 this season because, well...he's the Packers starting running back and they are going to score a ####-load of points. 1100 yards300 receiving8 total touchdowns.

It honestly wouldn't surprise me in the least, but I'd be curious to hear how you see it happening. You think he finally clicks this year and they let him handle the goal line plays? I like his chances to outperform those receiving yards, but I am really hesitant to project him for the TDs. I know you said total, but the whole RB corps has only rushed for 7 TDs in each of the last two seasons. I know it is meaningless because TD Here said it is, but Starks did finish with the 4th highest elusive rating last year. That may not spell success, but it can't be a bad thing.

 

[bengalbuck]

I disagree with almost everything in your response, but that's okay as I understand where you're coming from. It just seems like we differ on the perceived talent of a lot of the RBs in question, which will obviously skew our views of things quite a bit and we probably won't be able to convince each other differently.

If our eyes see things differently, that's just the way it is. However, I also try to rely heavily on what I can infer from the actions of NFL teams. For example, you are quick to shrug off the fact that a new coaching staff came into Tampa, saw a team with a ton of holes and still was willing to trade-up to get back into the 1st and draft Doug Martin. Sure, it was a late 1st, but that is still a pretty significant investment in a RB. If they were actually high on Blount at all, no way they make that pick. They could have used help at TE (Fleener), CB (Jenkins), DE (Upshaw), etc. but instead chose to trade up and get Martin.

I'm not quick to shrug it off, but we've both seen first round picks bust (or take a couple years to develop). Martin doesn't even have to bust in 2012. He could play pretty well and still not be as effective as Blount. And I've heard the argument before stating they didn't trade all those picks not to play [insert name here], but ultimately you play to win the game. If Blount is running for 5.0 ypc next year and Martin is putting up 4.2 ypc then who do you think will be getting carries in week 14 when it really matters to us?If Blount still can't pass block or hold onto the ball, who do you think will be getting the carries in week 14 when it really matters?

Similarly, you can make all kinds of arguments for Hillis' talent based on injuries, YPC, etc. However, he was a FA this offseason and every single team in the NFL could have made him an offer. The best he could do was a 1 year offer for about $2 million. That's a pretty good indicator of his market value. I'd argue that my perception of his talent level is more in line with that of NFL professionals who evaluate talent for a living than yours is...

We can speculate on what really happened all day. Maybe Hillis didn't like the longer offers he was receiving and Daboll said, come to KC with me and let's win some games in 2012 and get you the contract you deserve in 2013. Stranger things have happened. Randy Moss was once traded for a 4th rounder. Roy Williams was once traded for a 1st, a 3rd, and a 5th. Don't place too much value on contracts and trades unless it makes you feel better about your own assessment.Thanks. Feel free to come up with conspiracy theories about Hillis' contract if it makes you feel better about your own assessment. And examples where teams made mistakes pretty much prove you're definitely correct that everyone is wrong again here and you're smarter than then NFL GMs.

As for some of your other points...Cleveland drafted Mitchell Schwartz at the top of the 2nd round. He was considered to be the best RT in the draft and an instant plug and play starter who excels as a run blocker. Cleveland now has a stud at LT (Joe Thomas), a stud at C (Alex Mack) and have upgraded RT, their weakest OL position last year. Their OGs aren't great, but to me OT and C are the 3 most important positions on the OL. Again, they've invested significant resources (2 1st rounders and an early 2nd rounder) into getting somve talented run blocking OL. As to your point about Shurmur, he gave SJax a ton of touches as OC in St. Louis. I think Richardson at his age is a better talent than Sjax was in his 8th year and that Cleveland's OL is better than that STL O Line. I'll take Richardson in the 2nd round all day. I wonder what you see in Seattle's offense that makes it so much more attractive than Cleveland's...

Robert Gallery was drafted at the top of the 1st round and was considered to be the best LT in the draft and an instant plug and play starter, but we all know how that worked out. Let's not book Schwartz a ticket to Hawaii yet (wait, isn't that cancelled anyway?). For the run game, I think the OG position is more important than OT and C. At the very least, they are on par. And relying on a rookie tackle is risky. I'm not feeling as confident in the Cleveland OL as you are.That's fine if you don't feel confident in the Cleveland OL. I'll take it over the Seattle OL that you seem to think is star studded.

With regard to the Bengals v. Pats offensive discussion. There are benefits and drawbacks to different offensive schemes. Sure, against the Pats teams have extra DBs on the field and have to focus on the pass. On first glance, that should make it easy for the RBs to dominate. However, BJGE was also running behind an OL that excelled as pass blockers, not run blockers (tall skinny OTs, undersized but quick C, etc.). He had a finesse move TE in Hernandez out there instead of a bruising FB. He had undersized WRs like Welker who didn't exactly block great. In Cincy, he'll be behind an OL that is built to run the football. The right side of the line for example has RT Andre Smith, a recent top 10 draft pick who is really coming into his own and is a hell of a run blocker. RG Kevin Zeitler, a mauler from Wisconsin, was just drafted in the 1st round. The Bengals have a bowling ball of a FB in Chris Pressley (another Wisconsin guy). And their slot WR is likely to be Mohammad Sanu, who is a huge, tough, physical blocker. Maybe the Ds will be more focused on stopping the run (though Green's presence keeps them honest), but the offensive talent is also more geared towards excelling in the run game as opposed to a spread, shotgun, pass-first offense. There may be 7 in the box instead of 6, but that's not the only variable in the YPC equation.

As far as scoring chances, the stats have been posted on here in other threads, but the Bengals had more RB rushing attempts inside the 5 yard line than the Pats did last year, despite the rookie QB vs. Brady's historic season. Not sure why that should change. And I like BJGE's chances of getting the majority of those chances vs. the Pats RBs possibly sharing them.

This sounds like a whole boatload of conjecture. I don't have the time to fact check all this about the NE o-line being tall and skinny or that Welker is a poor blocker. But I will question a rookie slot receiver's effectiveness. That you are even throwing that out makes it seem like you are grasping at straws. Additionally, the fact that the Bengals had more rushing attempts inside the five and only came away with 9 rushing TDs (I know a few of them had to be outside the five) can't be a good sign. Should they shift towards passes to Green/Gresham then BJGE's value further diminishes.The point about a FB vs. a flex TE and big physical WRs vs. tiny guys like Welker shouldn't be real difficult to understand, but I guess it went over your head...I still haven't seen anything from you that makes me think BJGE's production is going to fall off a cliff in Cincy as you originally claimed, I guess we'll see. I think he'll put up pretty solid low-level RB2 #s or better (like every Cincy starting RB for the past decade) which is where he's being drafted. I'd take him over Blount, the NE RBBC, etc. that you seem to be so high on. The Cincy offense should be improved overall and BJGE should at least match Benson's production (Benson was terrible on short yardage, a big reason why he wasn't asked back.).

I did a quick check, and according to these stats, NE ranked 2nd in run blocking while Cincy ranked 20th. Getting rid of BJGE just might bump NE to #1 this year.

 

[rustycolts]

geez its almost not worth coming to these boards anymore.

 

[Touchdown There]

You don't like early hindsight?

 

[wiscstlatlmia]

The Obvious:

Donald Brown(although hes climbing ADP as we speak)

Mike Goodson

The not as Obvious:

Jonathan Dwyer

Kevin Smith

Tim Hightower

 

[_lurker_]

The Obviousonald Brown(although hes climbing ADP as we speak)Mike GoodsonThe not as Obvious:Jonathan DwyerKevin SmithTim Hightower

I like Brown, Dwyer, and Smith, but I'm wondering how Hightower can recover from ACL reconstruction fast enough to beat out Helu. As for Goodson, I think the play is Reece.

 

[FF Ninja]

The Obvious:

Donald Brown(although hes climbing ADP as we speak)

Mike Goodson

The not as Obvious:

Jonathan Dwyer

Kevin Smith

Tim Hightower

I like Brown, Dwyer, and Smith, but I'm wondering how Hightower can recover from ACL reconstruction fast enough to beat out Helu. As for Goodson, I think the play is Reece.

Can you guys elaborate on Dwyer? I've seen him mentioned several times. I don't see that one. I think Redman is pretty good, but even if he wasn't, Mendy will be back in time to minimize everyone's value during the fantasy playoff weeks. Also I'd temper any hope for Hightower, as he was only rocking a 3.8 ypc prior to injury. Not sure he could afford to lose half a step. Not that Helu's 4.2 ypc was overly impressive, but still he was the more productive back. Hightower caught 10 of 15 targets while Helu caught 49 of 60.

I'm no expert on the situation, but my perception is that Reece is a swiss army knife type of player, but not in line to ever be the guy. I think they traded for Goodson to fill the DMC role should his injuries resurface.

 

[Touchdown There]

After some meditation it occurred to me that there was some pretty good fantasy discussion going on in here. The churning in my stomach caused some sort of tunnel vision. I now realize that I am not the forum police.

Since I have killed the baby love fern of RB value discussion, I am going to plant a new seed. The 2012 All-Value Thread.

 

[LittleLarry]

to contribute:

I'll give you some hindsight. You will wonder why you didn't foresee BJGE finishing in the top 10 for RBs.

FBGs has him 23rd overall, and his ADP on myfantasy is in the 7th round.

The kid plays hard, and defenses will have to respect AJ Green, opening many holes.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

how is aj green possibly going to open 'many holes'?

 

[Multiple Scores]

Ninja, how can you recommend Mark Ingram? He is the number 3 in a committee of a pass first team. Did his plodding for negative yardage or getting shut down at the goal line get you excited? To me recommending Ingram is like recommending to drink red bull to induce sleep.

 

[Angry Beavers]

I was really enjoying reading this until the "love fest" started. Can't we all just get along and leave the personal attacks at home?

Weighing in on Starks, I don't see what changes that he suddenly gets to 8 TD's. Rodgers was throwing for a ton of scores ( obviously) and inside the 5 they give to ball to Kuhn or Rodgers takes it himself on the sneak. I am not sure I see where Starks gets goal line carries barring an injury to Kuhn. Unless Starks is scoring from longer range ( which I think is doubtful given that he has never been known as a breakaway type back) I don't see him with more than 4 or 5 TD's at most.

Richardson is going to be interesting for certain. I don't think we will know the answer here until we know more about how effective Weeden is going to be in the CLE offense. IF, and that is a big if, CLE starts to have a more reliable passing game that certaintly will make life easier for Richardson as teams will not be able to key on stopping him without having to respect CLE in the air. I'll say 1200 yards and 8 td's for Richardson are his ceiling.

 

[FF Ninja]

haha, ok, you beat me to the use of DB, but I honestly hadn't read your post at the time

I am not playing games with you. You need to take some time to actually read the stuff you write. Then you need to take some time to think about it. When you come back next June to get published in some spotlight threads, I hope you have a new attitude.

Let me just clear everything up and we can move on. First the easy part - I couldn't care less about "getting published" in spotlight threads. Tell me who to petition to and, if it'll ease your mind, I'll request that if any of my posts in the spotlight thread are used to please change the handle from FF ninja to anonymous. I like the spotlight threads because they are the best places for deep analysis and worthwhile discussion. I come into those threads with my own biases and I leave with a new perspective. For instance, I initially wasn't going to touch Julio Jones in drafts this year because I perceived his hype to be gaining too much steam last offseason, likely inflating his value this season despite Roddy White still hogging targets but, after reading posts and doing my own homework so that I could post something useful, I am now a believer that he'll take over as WR1 for the Falcons this year. At least on a fantasy PPG basis. So I hope that explanation helps you understand why I'm here in June. During the seasons it is all mostly thinly veiled "who should I start" or "should I make this trade" or commish questions. I really have no interest in getting some random screen name listed at the bottom of a fantasy football article.(Additionally, I'm an engineer in what is generally a seasonal business and the summer is relatively slow for us.)

I am not a friendly poster. I'm not here to bond with others over a hobby or make people like "FF ninja" or for internet props on good postings. I am here solely to glean information, but I understand this is a community of sorts so I believe you must give what you expect to get. I post useful information/articles that I come across and I use thorough analysis which I'm down to share. But when I see people posting unsupported crap (and I'm not referring to any one thread/post specifically) then I'm going to call them out. Go back and look at my "personal attacks". I call out ignorant and/or incorrect information. If all the well informed, intelligent posters called out all the garbage here, this forum would get cleaned up pretty quickly and it would suddenly become information dense which would attract more intelligent posters who don't have time to weed through the vast majority of useless threads and posts. But when people get called out, others will say, "that's why I don't post here" or whatever, but if you come here with good analysis then you've got nothing to worry about. If people calling out misinformation scares you off then the system works.

But I understand that most people don't want to rock the boat by calling out worthless posts so this system will never take off. However, if you like this place and want to see it improve then at least do your part and don't join a discussion asking for a departure from consensus/group think and refute a few sleeper picks with an "all plodder team" one liner. I know you probably think that's cute or clever or maybe you think it makes me look dumb for suggesting those guys and that makes you feel good about yourself, but you're degrading the quality of this board when you do that.

 

[_lurker_]

The Obvious:

Donald Brown(although hes climbing ADP as we speak)

Mike Goodson

The not as Obvious:

Jonathan Dwyer

Kevin Smith

Tim Hightower

I like Brown, Dwyer, and Smith, but I'm wondering how Hightower can recover from ACL reconstruction fast enough to beat out Helu. As for Goodson, I think the play is Reece.

Can you guys elaborate on Dwyer? I've seen him mentioned several times. I don't see that one. I think Redman is pretty good, but even if he wasn't, Mendy will be back in time to minimize everyone's value during the fantasy playoff weeks. Also I'd temper any hope for Hightower, as he was only rocking a 3.8 ypc prior to injury. Not sure he could afford to lose half a step. Not that Helu's 4.2 ypc was overly impressive, but still he was the more productive back. Hightower caught 10 of 15 targets while Helu caught 49 of 60.

I'm no expert on the situation, but my perception is that Reece is a swiss army knife type of player, but not in line to ever be the guy. I think they traded for Goodson to fill the DMC role should his injuries resurface.

for me, regarding Dwyer, I'm going back to pre-combine info. He was something crazy, like 60% of the entire offense back in college. Everyone knew it was him, they game planned for him, and he still ran well. I know Demaryius Thomas helped by running deep, but they actually didn't throw to him as much as another college team would have. Pre-combine, he was arguably the #1 FF pick here in the Shark tank. Then he fell in the NFL draft.So, if he has talent and ability, but had been coasting through college and failed at the NFL level, perhaps the light went on recently. I think if he really put it all together, there'd be no competition on that team and he could easily be a workhorse again.

In one game last year, he ran 11/107.

It's also cuz some of us think that Redman is 'just' good and the price to get dwyer is really cheap.

 

[BuckeyeChaos]

haha, ok, you beat me to the use of DB, but I honestly hadn't read your post at the time

I am not playing games with you. You need to take some time to actually read the stuff you write. Then you need to take some time to think about it. When you come back next June to get published in some spotlight threads, I hope you have a new attitude.

Let me just clear everything up and we can move on. First the easy part - I couldn't care less about "getting published" in spotlight threads. Tell me who to petition to and, if it'll ease your mind, I'll request that if any of my posts in the spotlight thread are used to please change the handle from FF ninja to anonymous. I like the spotlight threads because they are the best places for deep analysis and worthwhile discussion. I come into those threads with my own biases and I leave with a new perspective. For instance, I initially wasn't going to touch Julio Jones in drafts this year because I perceived his hype to be gaining too much steam last offseason, likely inflating his value this season despite Roddy White still hogging targets but, after reading posts and doing my own homework so that I could post something useful, I am now a believer that he'll take over as WR1 for the Falcons this year. At least on a fantasy PPG basis. So I hope that explanation helps you understand why I'm here in June. During the seasons it is all mostly thinly veiled "who should I start" or "should I make this trade" or commish questions. I really have no interest in getting some random screen name listed at the bottom of a fantasy football article.(Additionally, I'm an engineer in what is generally a seasonal business and the summer is relatively slow for us.)

I am not a friendly poster. I'm not here to bond with others over a hobby or make people like "FF ninja" or for internet props on good postings. I am here solely to glean information, but I understand this is a community of sorts so I believe you must give what you expect to get. I post useful information/articles that I come across and I use thorough analysis which I'm down to share. But when I see people posting unsupported crap (and I'm not referring to any one thread/post specifically) then I'm going to call them out. Go back and look at my "personal attacks". I call out ignorant and/or incorrect information. If all the well informed, intelligent posters called out all the garbage here, this forum would get cleaned up pretty quickly and it would suddenly become information dense which would attract more intelligent posters who don't have time to weed through the vast majority of useless threads and posts. But when people get called out, others will say, "that's why I don't post here" or whatever, but if you come here with good analysis then you've got nothing to worry about. If people calling out misinformation scares you off then the system works.

But I understand that most people don't want to rock the boat by calling out worthless posts so this system will never take off. However, if you like this place and want to see it improve then at least do your part and don't join a discussion asking for a departure from consensus/group think and refute a few sleeper picks with an "all plodder team" one liner. I know you probably think that's cute or clever or maybe you think it makes me look dumb for suggesting those guys and that makes you feel good about yourself, but you're degrading the quality of this board when you do that.

I will probably regret getting involved. However the bolded seems a bit hypicritical. For example in your OP, you say Lynch will be top 5, reason given:SEA offense will improve. Where is the thourough analysis in that claim? You later ripped someone else for saying SEA won't improve without providing a reason why.

 

[FF Ninja]

I will probably regret getting involved. However the bolded seems a bit hypicritical. For example in your OP, you say Lynch will be top 5, reason given:SEA offense will improve. Where is the thourough analysis in that claim? You later ripped someone else for saying SEA won't improve without providing a reason why.

Nah, you've got no reason to regret being involved. You ask a fair question. Given the scope of my original post, I didn't want to delve into each situation with several paragraphs worth of analysis, but I believe there are several reasons why Seattle will be better next year:The QB is the main component. I don't expect Flynn to be a Drew Brees-esque FA pickup, but I think he'll be an upgrade over Jackson (6.9 ypa 14TD 13INT). Additionally, Sidney Rice was injured last year, catching only 32 passes in 9 games, but as far as I know, he's healthy now. Baldwin was a nice surprise last year and he'll only be better with a full offseason. Zach Miller is now joined by Kellen Winslow - not good for either's fantasy value, but a very, very nice combo for real life football. I can't cite the specifics, but I know their offensive line suffered a lot of injuries last year. To be fair, I should note that Robert Gallery, who started 12 games last year, was released by the Seahawks and Justin Forsett was replaced with Lumpkin. Those were the only departures of offensive components that I am aware of.Also worth noting, this is Pete Carroll's 3rd season and his OC's second season. I know we expect instant results these days, but the continuity can only be seen as a slight positive. The team did start very slow last year, scoring 17 pts or less in 6 of the first 8 games for an average of 15.25 pts. They scored more than 17 pts in 6 of their last 8 games (exactly 17 in the other 2) for an average of 24.9 pts. So that's why I think the Seahawks will perform better in 2012 than 2011. Take this with a grain of salt, because I know this isn't perfect since I'm clearly picking the data points in Lynch's favor, but he was the #1 scoring RB from weeks 9-16 according to the data dominator. Don't want to twist the stats, so full disclosure: I am not going to look at every player, but I think Lynch had his bye week already while Foster had his in that span, so Lynch may have been RB2 or RB3 in PPG.

 

[butcher boy]

I think the best solution if you think someone's analysis is worhtless or meaningless is to just ignore it. Lots of people disagree on rankings, projections, etc, and not everybody's going to scour pro-football-reference.com to prove every sentence they write. That's not enforceable.

Just ignore whatever you might think is trash and move on. Calling people out is what starts the nonsense back and forth personal attacks that this thread has seen.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Just ignore whatever you might think is trash and move on. Calling people out is what starts the nonsense back and forth personal attacks that this thread has seen.

Arguing back and forth about football = good. The personal crap is awful. Putting people who contribute nothing on your ignore list solves a good part of the issue of having to sift through a ton of crap to find good bits of info and analysis.

 

[Multiple Scores]

Maybe the 2 trolls should get a room. This thread was good but the trolls shat all over it.

 

[bengalbuck]

You'd probably get a lot less "turd posts" if you stopped calling people "special" or referred to people's projections and opinions as worthless or meaningless if they differ from your own.

I'm actually looking for opinions other than my own. Read his response. Nothing in there constitutes a well thought out response. Lynch is garbage because he got paid? Great insight... Then he throws out an unsupported blanket statement that Seattle will be worse this year. Ok, that clears it all up. He calls Greene and Ingram plodders again (useless and unoriginal). Dismisses Hillis because he wants a guaranteed starter at RB32 - good luck with that. Dismisses Ridley because of a "4-man RBBC in a passing offense" despite my mention of BJGE putting up RB2 numbers in that very same offense for the last two years. He cites the same old "they drafting him in the first round" argument for Martin/Blount - like this hasn't been proven wrong in the past and/or it is a new angle on the topic.He tops it off by calling Beanie's 2011 season "trash" despite the fact that he put up RB15 production during the fantasy season while missing a game and his QB situation totally imploding. I mean, really? That statement was both inflammatory and incorrect.

The only semblance of thought was in his bit about Reggie being split out wide while Daniel Thomas plays the traditional RB. That's not bad rationale, but it was buried in quips and dismissive, unsupported statements. I honestly glossed over that part when I skimmed the post. But it doesn't change the overall substance much. He's clearly not trying to have a real discussion here so I've got no use for him.

This is my last post in this thread as every response of yours has contained insults instead of insight, but you are just making stuff up in some of your responses. In standard PPR scoring BJGE finished RB36 with 147 points (9 PPG) last season. Those aren't RB2 numbers. In one dynasty, I grabbed Ridley, BJGE and Woodhead relatively late thinking I'd maybe lock up the NE backfield. You couldn't start any of them. Maybe that changes this year with Vereen into the mix and BJGE out, but I'm not so sure. It would take a pretty big leap from the top back averaging 9 PPG for whoever the top scoring RB in that offense ends up being to be a good fantasy RB.

 

[BuckeyeChaos]

I will probably regret getting involved. However the bolded seems a bit hypicritical. For example in your OP, you say Lynch will be top 5, reason given:SEA offense will improve. Where is the thourough analysis in that claim? You later ripped someone else for saying SEA won't improve without providing a reason why.

Nah, you've got no reason to regret being involved. You ask a fair question. Given the scope of my original post, I didn't want to delve into each situation with several paragraphs worth of analysis, but I believe there are several reasons why Seattle will be better next year:The QB is the main component. I don't expect Flynn to be a Drew Brees-esque FA pickup, but I think he'll be an upgrade over Jackson (6.9 ypa 14TD 13INT). Additionally, Sidney Rice was injured last year, catching only 32 passes in 9 games, but as far as I know, he's healthy now. Baldwin was a nice surprise last year and he'll only be better with a full offseason. Zach Miller is now joined by Kellen Winslow - not good for either's fantasy value, but a very, very nice combo for real life football. I can't cite the specifics, but I know their offensive line suffered a lot of injuries last year. To be fair, I should note that Robert Gallery, who started 12 games last year, was released by the Seahawks and Justin Forsett was replaced with Lumpkin. Those were the only departures of offensive components that I am aware of.Also worth noting, this is Pete Carroll's 3rd season and his OC's second season. I know we expect instant results these days, but the continuity can only be seen as a slight positive. The team did start very slow last year, scoring 17 pts or less in 6 of the first 8 games for an average of 15.25 pts. They scored more than 17 pts in 6 of their last 8 games (exactly 17 in the other 2) for an average of 24.9 pts. So that's why I think the Seahawks will perform better in 2012 than 2011. Take this with a grain of salt, because I know this isn't perfect since I'm clearly picking the data points in Lynch's favor, but he was the #1 scoring RB from weeks 9-16 according to the data dominator. Don't want to twist the stats, so full disclosure: I am not going to look at every player, but I think Lynch had his bye week already while Foster had his in that span, so Lynch may have been RB2 or RB3 in PPG.

This is a good response and part of why I come to these boards. I want to see opinions of others even if unsubstantiated. I always weigh these against my own thoughts anyway. Well thought out cases like this are even better. I may disagree but I appreciate the effort needed to jot it down.As a side note, responding with honey rather than vinegar goes a long way on these boards as in life.

 

[cr8f]

This is literally the #####iest 'sports' board I have ever seen

Especially compared to the IDP forum.

 

[smackdaddies]

I will probably regret getting involved. However the bolded seems a bit hypicritical. For example in your OP, you say Lynch will be top 5, reason given:SEA offense will improve. Where is the thourough analysis in that claim? You later ripped someone else for saying SEA won't improve without providing a reason why.

Nah, you've got no reason to regret being involved. You ask a fair question. Given the scope of my original post, I didn't want to delve into each situation with several paragraphs worth of analysis, but I believe there are several reasons why Seattle will be better next year:The QB is the main component. I don't expect Flynn to be a Drew Brees-esque FA pickup, but I think he'll be an upgrade over Jackson (6.9 ypa 14TD 13INT). Additionally, Sidney Rice was injured last year, catching only 32 passes in 9 games, but as far as I know, he's healthy now. Baldwin was a nice surprise last year and he'll only be better with a full offseason. Zach Miller is now joined by Kellen Winslow - not good for either's fantasy value, but a very, very nice combo for real life football. I can't cite the specifics, but I know their offensive line suffered a lot of injuries last year. To be fair, I should note that Robert Gallery, who started 12 games last year, was released by the Seahawks and Justin Forsett was replaced with Lumpkin. Those were the only departures of offensive components that I am aware of.Also worth noting, this is Pete Carroll's 3rd season and his OC's second season. I know we expect instant results these days, but the continuity can only be seen as a slight positive. The team did start very slow last year, scoring 17 pts or less in 6 of the first 8 games for an average of 15.25 pts. They scored more than 17 pts in 6 of their last 8 games (exactly 17 in the other 2) for an average of 24.9 pts. So that's why I think the Seahawks will perform better in 2012 than 2011. Take this with a grain of salt, because I know this isn't perfect since I'm clearly picking the data points in Lynch's favor, but he was the #1 scoring RB from weeks 9-16 according to the data dominator. Don't want to twist the stats, so full disclosure: I am not going to look at every player, but I think Lynch had his bye week already while Foster had his in that span, so Lynch may have been RB2 or RB3 in PPG.

I think that is all solid logic. Only comment is I don't know about the run defenses that Seattle is hitting - I know they have a number of terrible pass defense teams they are going against

 

[Cato]

As a side note, responding with honey rather than vinegar goes a long way on these boards as in life.

If we had a fantasy draft for appropriate responses, I would easily draft this with pick 1.02. I like a lot of the thought process and ideas in here, but I think a softer approach would cut a lot more ice and ensure that people don't tune anyone out on that basis alone. I like the Hillis and Ridley calls. Could be goal line backs, durable enough to drain the clock if/when their team is winning. Seem explosive enough for a decent role if healthy (Hillis), stop fumbling (Ridley). Taking Best, as late as I can possibly get him, hoping for some difference making performances, but recognizing he may not last the year, therefore need to stay active on the wire for depth. Also like Daniel Thomas, as part of the anti-Reggie Bush bet. But not guys, I'm going to reach for. Hope to take an RB anchor in round 1, if one is there at my pick and round out my roster with whomever I can get at a good ADP price of the names above.

 

[massraider]

I think this is a good year to look at RB sleepers. Seems like not a lot of sure things at the top, and seems like a good year for some late round fliers to pay off.

Alex Green: I seriously know nothing about this guy. Take my opinion with a grain of salt. But I drafted James Starks in dynasty and paid close attention. Special backs tend to be special pretty early on, and Starks should have overtaken Grant if he was the goods. And boy, reading Having said that, Starks' current ADP is pretty nice value, might be one of the top handcuff situations for owners to jump on. I expect the upright Starks to get banged up, or maybe Green just shows more. Really like the potential payoff for the price.

Mike Goodson: Realistic expectation is that maybe DMC misses a few games, and you get a nice few weeks as a spot starter or flex from Goodson. If DMC misses extended time, you may have a sexy RB2 sitting on your bench. He may be getting pushed down, as people worry about a committee with Reece and Jones. Two things: Reece is a FB, and Goodson was picked by the current regime, not Jones. One more time: Reece is a FB. Any fantasy value will come Larry Center's-style, in the passing game. He won't be getting 12 carries. Jones is a scatback, with homerun ability, but even last year's staff used him sparingly.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

- Shonn Greene: Plodder with few receptions. If you play in a PPR, he should be off your draft list let alone a value pick.

Greene had 30 recpetions last year with Tomlinson still on the team.

 

[cr8f]

I think this is a good year to look at RB sleepers. Seems like not a lot of sure things at the top, and seems like a good year for some late round fliers to pay off.Alex Green: I seriously know nothing about this guy. Take my opinion with a grain of salt. But I drafted James Starks in dynasty and paid close attention. Special backs tend to be special pretty early on, and Starks should have overtaken Grant if he was the goods. And boy, reading Having said that, Starks' current ADP is pretty nice value, might be one of the top handcuff situations for owners to jump on. I expect the upright Starks to get banged up, or maybe Green just shows more. Really like the potential payoff for the price. Mike Goodson: Realistic expectation is that maybe DMC misses a few games, and you get a nice few weeks as a spot starter or flex from Goodson. If DMC misses extended time, you may have a sexy RB2 sitting on your bench. He may be getting pushed down, as people worry about a committee with Reece and Jones. Two things: Reece is a FB, and Goodson was picked by the current regime, not Jones. One more time: Reece is a FB. Any fantasy value will come Larry Center's-style, in the passing game. He won't be getting 12 carries. Jones is a scatback, with homerun ability, but even last year's staff used him sparingly.

I thought last year (though a rookie) Green could emerge s the top back. He's shifty, a good receiver with good after the catch speed. He should start as the 3rd down back bit I wouldn't be surprised if he took the RB jobs. But then Brandon Saine or Marc Tyler(son of Wendell Tyler) could too.Marc a bigger slow runner and a rookie FA.Grant could come back too. Right now it's a mess.

 

[FF Ninja]

This is my last post in this thread as every response of yours has contained insults instead of insight, but you are just making stuff up in some of your responses. In standard PPR scoring BJGE finished RB36 with 147 points (9 PPG) last season. Those aren't RB2 numbers. In one dynasty, I grabbed Ridley, BJGE and Woodhead relatively late thinking I'd maybe lock up the NE backfield. You couldn't start any of them. Maybe that changes this year with Vereen into the mix and BJGE out, but I'm not so sure. It would take a pretty big leap from the top back averaging 9 PPG for whoever the top scoring RB in that offense ends up being to be a good fantasy RB.

You clearly haven't read all my responses then.And no, I'm not making anything up. If you get anything out of what I've said, I want it to be that I am adamantly opposed to passing off misinformation as fact. Please see this FBG link to BJGE's career stats. In the career stats line, FBG lists a player's final rank among their position. He has finished RB17 and RB24 the last two years. I rarely if ever reference PPR stats because PPR pretty much boils down to a parity mechanism (by increasing the total number of fantasy relevant players in the player pool). I hope this is not an insult, but I think it was a bit presumptuous of you to assume I was referring to PPR and then claim I was making things up based on that assumption. Feel free to retract your statement.

That being said, if BJGE can finish RB17 and RB24 in back-to-back years, why couldn't Ridley if he inherits the BJGE role?

 

[butcher boy]

Feel free to retract your statement.

 

[Dawg Pound 69]

This is my last post in this thread as every response of yours has contained insults instead of insight, but you are just making stuff up in some of your responses. In standard PPR scoring BJGE finished RB36 with 147 points (9 PPG) last season. Those aren't RB2 numbers. In one dynasty, I grabbed Ridley, BJGE and Woodhead relatively late thinking I'd maybe lock up the NE backfield. You couldn't start any of them. Maybe that changes this year with Vereen into the mix and BJGE out, but I'm not so sure. It would take a pretty big leap from the top back averaging 9 PPG for whoever the top scoring RB in that offense ends up being to be a good fantasy RB.

You clearly haven't read all my responses then.And no, I'm not making anything up. If you get anything out of what I've said, I want it to be that I am adamantly opposed to passing off misinformation as fact. Please see this FBG link to BJGE's career stats. In the career stats line, FBG lists a player's final rank among their position. He has finished RB17 and RB24 the last two years. I rarely if ever reference PPR stats because PPR pretty much boils down to a parity mechanism (by increasing the total number of fantasy relevant players in the player pool). I hope this is not an insult, but I think it was a bit presumptuous of you to assume I was referring to PPR and then claim I was making things up based on that assumption. Feel free to retract your statement.

That being said, if BJGE can finish RB17 and RB24 in back-to-back years, why couldn't Ridley if he inherits the BJGE role?

I think Vereen is more talented than Woodhead was as the COP back. And by adding Lloyd and with the continued growth of the two young tight ends, their pass/run ratio should shift even more towards the passing game. Brady seems likely to throw for 50 scores like he did in 2007. If Addai is on opening-day roster, it won't be a good sign for Ridley/Vereen. Not because Addai has anything left in the tank, so much as it would be an indication that Belichick has some doubts about the two 2nd-year guys.

 

[FF Ninja]

Feel free to retract your statement.

He claimed I was making stuff up. I proved I wasn't. What are you not getting about that?

 

[FF Ninja]

This is a good response and part of why I come to these boards. I want to see opinions of others even if unsubstantiated. I always weigh these against my own thoughts anyway. Well thought out cases like this are even better. I may disagree but I appreciate the effort needed to jot it down.

As a side note, responding with honey rather than vinegar goes a long way on these boards as in life.

Well, do you disagree? If so, I'd be interested to hear why. I'm currently prepared to invest heavily into Seattle with both Lynch, as early as 5th overall, and Rice (I'm not going to reach for him due to the other positional values I perceive around there, but I like him a lot more than other WRs around his ADP, and would gladly pay his going rate in an auction). So if you've got a different angle on Seattle's offense in 2012, please do share. I didn't write the analysis just to see it on a message board. I was hoping to get some feedback from another perspective.

 

[FF Ninja]

I think Vereen is more talented than Woodhead was as the COP back. And by adding Lloyd and with the continued growth of the two young tight ends, their pass/run ratio should shift even more towards the passing game. Brady seems likely to throw for 50 scores like he did in 2007. If Addai is on opening-day roster, it won't be a good sign for Ridley/Vereen. Not because Addai has anything left in the tank, so much as it would be an indication that Belichick has some doubts about the two 2nd-year guys.

Trust me, as someone who is pimping Lloyd I'd love to believe they will throw more next year, but I can't see that happening. Last year was a career high for Brady in pass attempts. If Ridley is more effecive than BJGE (3.7 ypc last year) then I have to imagine they'll go that route to some extent. As we saw with Dillon, Bill is not opposed to running the ball when it is working. I can't see that situation repeating itself, but I'm just saying it isn't safe to think they'll throw even more than last year. Ridley could be effective fantasy-wise just on his goal line carries alone (should he get that role). 150 carries and 12 TDs should be good enough for a low-end RB2 at a low-end RB3 price. Obviously, no one wants to start a low-end RB2, but injuries happen and quality fill ins can keep your team rolling.

 

[BuckeyeChaos]

This is a good response and part of why I come to these boards. I want to see opinions of others even if unsubstantiated. I always weigh these against my own thoughts anyway. Well thought out cases like this are even better. I may disagree but I appreciate the effort needed to jot it down.

As a side note, responding with honey rather than vinegar goes a long way on these boards as in life.

Well, do you disagree? If so, I'd be interested to hear why. I'm currently prepared to invest heavily into Seattle with both Lynch, as early as 5th overall, and Rice (I'm not going to reach for him due to the other positional values I perceive around there, but I like him a lot more than other WRs around his ADP, and would gladly pay his going rate in an auction). So if you've got a different angle on Seattle's offense in 2012, please do share. I didn't write the analysis just to see it on a message board. I was hoping to get some feedback from another perspective.

I was speaking non-specifically about any idea put forth not targeting yours when I said "I may disagree". In all honesty I haven't looked into Seatle enough to fully form my thoughts. I will say that I'm not excited when I hear that Tavaris Jackson is leading the QB race heading into training camps. That doesn't make me feel that they are poised to improve.