2013 Dynasty "Sell High" (3 Viewers)

[SSOG]

Then we can agree to disagree on Shanahan's record as a personnel person.

Here is what I see, I see a head coach who starts to feel his seat get warm as his past two season were only good enough for 4th place in the NFC East. He won 6 games in 2010 and 5 games last year. Despite having Super Bowl winning pedigree and linkage to the Walsh era, he can't reasonably expect to miss the playoffs three years in a row under Dan Snyder and expect nothing negative to happen as fallout. This is why Shanahan sold the farm to draft RG3.

That, or he did it because Griffin was one of the top 5 QB prospects of the last few decades, and Shanahan knows both how rare those players are, and how much they mean to a franchise when you get one. Because, historically speaking, hitching your wagon to a rookie QB really isn't a great move if all you're hoping for is job security. It's easy to forget it after Griffin, Wilson, Luck, and Newton... But rookie QBs are typically terrible. Appointing one as the starter on day 1 has historically made it nearly impossible to make the playoffs, so if your contention was Shanny needed a playoff berth to save his job, he sure picked a stupid way to try to get one.

Having RG3 is great, he's a great player, I love watching him play, I'm glad Redskins homers have a true blue chip franchise guy to root for now. Skins fans have suffered long and hard the last decade and I think some good news for them is much needed. But he came at a great cost. If you want to win championships and make an extended run as a contender, you need to build through the draft. You need to hit on your drafted players to the a degree where you have several waves of players outperforming their rookie contracts to provide you with roster depth and value within a closed system with a built in hard cap. The more assets you surrender for RG3, the more pressure you put on your front office to absolutely HIT on the remaining picks you do have. You also force your franchise to dip into free agency more often. Draft, Free Agency, Trades. That's pretty much it, that's pretty much your ways to garner new talent. The problem with free agency is you are either paying or overpaying players who you are expecting to produce but at their market value. While their drafting team probably reaped the most value, those first few cost controlled years with over performance to market compensation, the team that signs you in FA is paying you to market for past performance and hope and projection you will either continue to rise or at least stay consistent. In essence, the teams that pay for the top free agents or dip into free agency a little too much are taking a magnified risking of "buying high" on a player.

No, if you want to win a championship or have an extended run, you need a top QB. A top QB covers all manner of ills- look at Indy in Peyton's last season there. Look at Green Bay's yearly injury list. Peyton and Brady haven't missed the playoffs in a decade, despite some questionable personnel decisions around them. New Orleans never had any sustained success in the playoffs until they got Brees. I can name lots of teams with top QBs and talent deficits elsewhere that competed for championships. I can name several teams that relied heavily on free agency when assembling a contender. How many teams can you name who had a great drafting record, no top QB, and still competed anyway? The poster child for that is probably Baltimore, and how far has that strategy gotten them? If you don't have a top QB, all else is for naught. Luckily for Washington, Shanny did what it took to secure them a future top 5 QB, and now they can worry about building around him.

Shanahan is married to the RG3 pick. If RG3 exceeds expectations, he gets the credit. If RG3 disappoints, he reaps the full blame. He's got a perfectly capable backup in Kirk Cousins but doesn't want to play him because he doesn't want to spur a potential QB controversy. One which says why did we spend X amount on a star QB ( three firsts and a 2nd) when we spent a 4th rounder on this kid here who is pretty good.

Playing RG3 last week was not about the health and future of the Redskins franchise for the long term. Playing RG3 was about Shanahan doing his best to save his job and secure his job status. There was no reason to have your hurt rookie franchise QB1 go on the road, with limited mobility with his LCL injury, and when your right tackle is out so you give Maurice Hurt his first career start. Don't get me wrong, I'm not a fan of Tyler Polumbus on the right side, but you are going to throw your franchise guy out there while he's gimpy in hostile territory hoping a rookie will manage to protect him in a critical position? All while having a competent backup QB1 on your roster? That Skins O line is a top notch, top ten rushing O line, but it's in the bottom third in the league in pass protection. A gimpy QB1 with limited mobility is a sitting duck.

Griffin was cleared to play by the medical staff. What's the point of employing a professional medical staff if you are just going to ignore them? Griffin wasn't his usual mobile self, but suggesting teams shouldn't play QBs who aren't very mobile on the road is ludicrous- what does that say about the QBs that aren't very mobile even when healthy? Cousins is a good backup, but Griffin gave the team the best chance to win, and they're in the playoff hunt. This has nothing to do with saving Shanahan's job- you NEVER concede the playoff race when you control your own destiny. How many 6 seeds have won the SB recently? What if one of them had said "well, football's a violent game, and we don't want to risk our QB's long term health, so how about we just shut him down for the year"? What if Washington made the playoffs- would you be okay with Griffin, who had been cleared to play by a professional medical staff, playing?Besides, name the last QB to suffer a career-ending injury. Young/Aikman? It's an absurdly rare occurrence. You can't coach football if you're afraid of getting hit by lightning.

Here's what I see for the future

- Shanahan running RG3 out there like Dusty Baker runs out his starting pitchers, regardless of situation and regardless of RG3's long term health ( how many times can a running QB1 go out there and survive getting his bell being rung, even in with all the pro passing rules?), which in turn is critical to the long term future for the Redskins, to justify the RG3 trade and to save his job. And winning just enough to bump out Allen and get Cousins traded and continuing to fail to build around RG3 in the same way he failed to build around his Broncos teams post Super Bowl, until of course the roster was so devoid of talent that eventually the "system" itself corrected the Broncos drafting. It doesn't make you a great drafter if you lose talent and lose games to the point where your picks are high enough to mitigate the risks of failure. It wouldn't take Bill Walsh to grab Stafford, Megatron and Suh for the Lions would it? At some point, personnel wise, the "system" of the NFL draft imposes a market correction on even the worst teams.

I love RG3, but I'm not invested in seeing Shanahan grind him into the dirt.

He's a sell high for me in dynasty. The rest of you are free to do as you wish.

Holy hell, you're going to claim Denver finally started having good drafts because they started losing and were rewarded with high picks? Are you just throwing out whatever comes to mind and hoping it sticks at this point? During Shanahan's career, Denver was the only team that never had a top 10 pick in the entire league- largely because Shanahan never had more than 10 losses, and only finished below .500 twice. In 14 years, Shanahan only had four picks in the TOP HALF of the first round. He got Deltha ONeil and John Mobley at 15. He got Ryan Clady at 12. He got Jay Cutler at 11- a pick he only owned because he TRADED UP TO GET IT after a 13-3 season. But let's not let facts get in the way of the stories we make up to try to hide our lack of knowledge about the situations we're going off on great length about. Look, end of the day, Mike Shanahan is probably the best in the entire NFL at developing QBs. John Elway, Steve Young, Brian Griese, Jake Plummer, and Jay Cutler all played their best seasons under Shanahan. I said before the season that there was no one better for Griffin to be learning under, and got mocked for it (by people who were eager to say he couldn't succeed because, like you, they were fixated on the lost picks). Well, not a week goes by without someone else writing a story about how well the Shanahans have been developing Griffin and tailoring their offense to suit him. And for good measure, they turned a rookie 4th rounder into one of the most celebrated backups in the league while they were at it. Trying to use the presence of Mike Shanahan as some sort of negative for Griffin seems to me like doubling down on a position after it's already been killed and buried.

 

[SSOG]

SSOG,I respect your football opinion, I always have. On this matter, we can agree to disagree. You believe Shanahan is a good personnel man. You could cite player X , Y and Z for it. I don't, I think he's horrible. I could cite players A, B and C. In the end, that argument will only become circular. My base reasoning here isn't to piss all over Shanahan and say he's a bad coach. I am saying - I don't think he's the right coach suited for RG3 and his long term health and success in Washington- I don't believe he can surround RG3 with elite personnel for the long haul to contend or save RG3's health from being one of the few weapons the Skins have offensively. - I believe he cares more about saving his job than considering RG3's long term health. I speak of mobility, not as a guy who will break out a 80 yeard TD run, but enough mobility for a guy to protect himself from an oncoming pass rush. - I believe from a personnel standpoint, Shanahan compromised the long term future of the Skins by selling the farm for RG3 to ensure he wouldn't eat a third losing season in a row and have to deal with Dan Snyder afterwards. I believe that cost will bear more heavily in later years compared to this year. I see RG3, even with Morris and hopefully a health Garcon around him, as someone who will have to consistently carry this offense and often use his legs to do it. And even with all the pro passing / QB safety rules, I see this kid getting his bell rung a lot. I see a kid who is going to miss chunks of the season on a regular basis for the kind of pounding he will take as a running QB1. And I see that all as a detriment to long term dynasty fantasy value. I respect your football opinion. Somehow I feel I've unintentionally pushed some button with you regarding Shanahan where this has all devolved into the equivalent of a prostate exam. We can agree to disagree and like I've always said on this board, time will tell. Time will tell which one of us was either right or wrong or both right and wrong.

You're a good guy, Gecko, and I usually appreciate your contrarian take. I often find myself agreeing with it, actually. Sometimes (Myra Kraft comes to mind), it seems like I might be the only one. I just don't see this as an "agree to disagree" situation. I think there are a lot of objective truths in this situation, and I don't think any of them are on your side. First, let's start with the personnel again. You say Shanahan's "horrible"- your word, not mine. Let's quantify "horrible", shall we? I think "horrible" has to mean at least bottom 10, if not bottom 5. So let's assume that were the case- if Shanahan were "horrible", what would we expect that to look like? What would a team look like after 14 years of a "horrible" personnel guy running the show? I would contend- and I don't think this is a stretch- that 14 years with a bottom 10 personnel guy would result in one of the 10 least talented teams in the league. So if Shanahan were "horrible", we would expect the Broncos to be one of the 10 least talented teams in the league. And if they were one of the 10 least talented teams, we would expect them to have one of the 10 worst records in the entire NFL from time to time. But that's not what we see. Only once did Denver finish with one of the 10 worst records, coming on the heels of back-to-back superbowls, and that was only after losing 3 potential HoFers, (4 if you count Atwater, which I don't), and turning to a brand new starting QB. And Denver still finished "just" 6-10. And their scoring differential (-4 points) was better than 11 other teams. So you mean to tell me that Shanahan was a HORRIBLE personnel guy, and he ran the controls for 14 years in Denver, and not once were they worse than "mildly below average"? That's unbelievable! And I mean that literally. It is literally impossible for me to believe that could be the case. You know what a team looks like after years of a "horrible" personnel guy? Look at the 0-16 Detroit Lions, not the 8-8 Denver Broncos. And those Broncos managed to remain consistently competitive despite the fact that, as you pointed out, the NFL draft is rigged to favor losers, and Denver was never a loser. Second, let's look at your assertion that Shanahan drafted Griffin to save his job. I find this claim laughable- you claim Shanahan needed a playoff berth to save his job, so he drafted a rookie and immediately named him a day one starter at QB. First off, that narrative is implausible enough on its face; how often in history has a rookie started from day one at QB and led his team to the playoffs? Second off, that narrative is flatly contradicted by later events- when a coach is desperately trying to win now at the expense of the future, tell me, what earthly reason could he possibly have for drafting a SECOND QB in the 4th? Of all the players on the board, Cousins probably had the absolute least to offer from a "win now" standpoint. The only possible reason to draft two QBs in the first four rounds is if you're going BPA, and BPA means that instead of focusing on immediate needs, you're taking a long view. Finally, your interpretation is contradicted by Shanahan's history. In the 2006 draft, Shanahan stunned the punditocracy by executing two trades to move up to 11 and select Jay Cutler. He was coming off a 13-3 season where his squad hosted the AFCCG and his starting QB, Jake Plummer (more on him in a minute), had made the pro bowl and led the league in int%. When asked why he did it, he said that his years working with Elway and Young showed him how important it was to have a franchise QB, and his years since Elway had shown him just how rare it was to be in a position to get one, so when that rare opportunity arose, you paid whatever it took to get him. Washington's acquisition of Griffin (and Cousins) fits far better with Shanahan's previous words and actions (when an opportunity arises to get a franchise signal caller, you do whatever it takes), and far worse with theories that he was simply trying to save his job. Circling back to Plummer for a second... compare his numbers in Denver to his numbers in Arizona sometime. The Denver numbers were top 10 good. The Arizona numbers were bottom 10 bad. A case could be made that they were actually top5/bottom5 (and I'd be happy to make it, if you want). This leaves us forced to concede one of two things (possibly both). Either Denver had an awful lot of supporting talent helping Plummer elevate his game... or they didn't, and Shanahan oversaw the single most impressive job of QB development in the history of the NFL. Plummer speaks very well to Shanahan as a personnel guy, and to Shanahan as a QB development guy. You can't overlook this. Anyway, aside over. Now, your third assertion is that Shanahan is leaving Griffin high and dry and will get him killed. I think there's a chance Griffin's body gets wrecked, but I don't pin it on Shanahan. Griffin is a special player. You don't get a special player and than tell him not to do the things that make him special. You don't tell Earl Campbell to run with a little less intensity. You don't tell Cam Newton to stop trying to push the pile in short yardage. You don't tell Jamaal Charles to stop cutting quite so hard. Griffin has Olympic-caliber speed, and taking it out of his game is like buying a Lamborghini and keeping it in the garage. You can absolutely teach him when and where to pick his spots, but I don't know why Shanahan wouldn't be the guy to do that. After all, he's the guy who taught two of the most celebrated running QBs of all time (Elway and Young) how to pick their spots. It's possible Griffin gets killed before he learns these things (although not likely- Vick and Cunningham hung around into their 30s, didn't they?), but that has nothing to do with Shanny. Mike Shanahan is exactly the guy Griffin owners should want running the show for the foreseeable future. You ask that we just agree to disagree on this, and if this were just a matter of opinion (Scarlett Johannson vs. Jessica Alba), I would be happy to. The problem is that I don't think this is just a matter of opinion- as I said, I think there are objective truths, and that they fall overwhelmingly on my side of the equation. It'd be like if we were arguing who was the better coach, Bill Walsh or George Seifert. Sometimes, "agree to disagree" just doesn't cut it.

 

[DexterDew]

if i was a FA wide receiver, i think the idea of playing with RG3 would be very attractive

 

[Billy Ball Thorton]

Wtf happened to this thread

 

[ConnSKINS26]

if i was a FA wide receiver, i think the idea of playing with RG3 would be very attractive

Little known fact that was glossed over during FA, but Garçon actually specifically chose Washington over SD with similar contract offers because of RG3 vs. Rivers. Which isn't saying much after this season, but at the time it was nice to have a talented FA choose Washington over other destinations for a reason other than money.

 

[DropKick]

A year ago, some touted Drew Brees as a sell high. I'm glad I didn't move him (never really considered it) and he finished #1 overall in our scoring system.

But, teams know what I know about Brees (and Brady, etc.)... that he is getting older. And that would be reflected in his price... So, while it would be "nice" to get a king's ransom for these players, are people really getting value when they give up a stud with strong production on the table for some future question marks?

 

[MAC_32]

if i was a FA wide receiver, i think the idea of playing with RG3 would be very attractive

Little known fact that was glossed over during FA, but Garçon actually specifically chose Washington over SD with similar contract offers because of RG3 vs. Rivers. Which isn't saying much after this season, but at the time it was nice to have a talented FA choose Washington over other destinations for a reason other than money.

He signed less than an hour after FA started, he knew where he wanted to go from the moment Washington executed the trade. One of the big reasons I tried to get him this past offseason, was hoping the foot issue may make him a buy this offseason too but then December happened.

 

[lbouchard]

GG looks like you made right call. Shanahan has no consideration for RG3's long term career. I hope RGIII is ok, that looked bad.

 

[Instinctive]

Alfred Morris - Shanahan, need I say more?

Please do say more. Because I don't get it. Shanahan has proven to be nothing but a guy who runs a single RB at a vast majority of touches until he wears down and is hurt. Morris looks to be locked in. Have you ANY SHRED OF ANYTHING to indicate Shanahan does anything other than ride one back? Or are you just following the herd of idiocy of people who were unable to follow the DEN RB injuries in that one season or the TC battle like a decade ago?

 

[cstu]

A year ago, some touted Drew Brees as a sell high. I'm glad I didn't move him (never really considered it) and he finished #1 overall in our scoring system.But, teams know what I know about Brees (and Brady, etc.)... that he is getting older. And that would be reflected in his price... So, while it would be "nice" to get a king's ransom for these players, are people really getting value when they give up a stud with strong production on the table for some future question marks?

QB (in 1 QB leagues) is one of those positions where it's usually best to ride studs until they retire. Peyton, Brady and Brees are in that category. While they are playing they are top 5 at their position but not many people want to give up a lot knowing they could get over the hill anytime. Unless you have a young stud or aren't a contender most of the time they aren't worth moving.

 

[scothawk]

A year ago, some touted Drew Brees as a sell high. I'm glad I didn't move him (never really considered it) and he finished #1 overall in our scoring system.But, teams know what I know about Brees (and Brady, etc.)... that he is getting older. And that would be reflected in his price... So, while it would be "nice" to get a king's ransom for these players, are people really getting value when they give up a stud with strong production on the table for some future question marks?

QB (in 1 QB leagues) is one of those positions where it's usually best to ride studs until they retire. Peyton, Brady and Brees are in that category. While they are playing they are top 5 at their position but not many people want to give up a lot knowing they could get over the hill anytime. Unless you have a young stud or aren't a contender most of the time they aren't worth moving.

Exactly. I had Brady/Brees/Ryan in a dynasty league and I could hardly get an offer let alone value for Brady.

 

[FUBAR]

A year ago, some touted Drew Brees as a sell high. I'm glad I didn't move him (never really considered it) and he finished #1 overall in our scoring system.But, teams know what I know about Brees (and Brady, etc.)... that he is getting older. And that would be reflected in his price... So, while it would be "nice" to get a king's ransom for these players, are people really getting value when they give up a stud with strong production on the table for some future question marks?

QB (in 1 QB leagues) is one of those positions where it's usually best to ride studs until they retire. Peyton, Brady and Brees are in that category. While they are playing they are top 5 at their position but not many people want to give up a lot knowing they could get over the hill anytime. Unless you have a young stud or aren't a contender most of the time they aren't worth moving.

Exactly. I had Brady/Brees/Ryan in a dynasty league and I could hardly get an offer let alone value for Brady.

I acquired Peyton Manning cheap this year despite already having Brees. His owner had shopped him around, posted on the site that he was available cheap, etc. but had no other offers. QBs just don't cost much in my established leagues.

 

[scothawk]

If Harris from GB does anything in the next couple of weeks I am selling.

Not sure what to ask in terms of price though.

 

[FF Ninja]

Wtf happened to this thread

To get back in the spirit of things, I noticed this stat while using the data dominator for another thread:

Stevan Ridley had 20 rushes inside the 5 for a whopping 2 yards, but he did punch it in 8 times. Either way, he went backwards a lot. Woodhead had 6 carries for 8 yards and 2 TDs. Vereen had 5 carries for 12 yards and 3 TDs.

Based on that, I'd be pretty concerned about Vereen possibly slipping into that role next year. Sure, the same size is very small and on the year Ridley did have a higher ypc than Vereen (4.4 vs. 4.0) on a much heavier workload (290 vs. 62), but Ridley's performance in the goal line package would give me pause if I was a Ridley owner. I'm certainly not going to actively seek him in trades. I'd buy Vereen right now, though. With Woodhead being a FA, Vereen should have some value as a pass catcher next year at the very least. I think 100 carries and 40 receptions is a realistic floor unless Woodhead is brought back.

 

[Andrew74]

If Harris from GB does anything in the next couple of weeks I am selling.Not sure what to ask in terms of price though.

I picked him up and am looking to move him, but I have no idea at what price.

 

[Concept Coop]

Alfred Morris - Shanahan, need I say more?

Please do say more. Because I don't get it. Shanahan has proven to be nothing but a guy who runs a single RB at a vast majority of touches until he wears down and is hurt. Morris looks to be locked in. Have you ANY SHRED OF ANYTHING to indicate Shanahan does anything other than ride one back? Or are you just following the herd of idiocy of people who were unable to follow the DEN RB injuries in that one season or the TC battle like a decade ago?

Shhhhhh....I'm trying to get him at his current market value, where I don't own him.

 

[thriftyrocker]

If Harris from GB does anything in the next couple of weeks I am selling.Not sure what to ask in terms of price though.

I picked him up and am looking to move him, but I have no idea at what price.

If you want bat**** crazy price, he went 6.12 in one mock ahead of the followinggore, ingram, bryce, d.richardson, hillmn, hunter, rodgers, lamar, ballardhilton, gordon, alexander, d.moore, wright, mi.floyd, jefrey, randlerudolph, gresham

 

[Concept Coop]

If you want bat**** crazy price, he went 6.12 in one mock ahead of the followinggore, ingram, bryce, d.richardson, hillmn, hunter, rodgers, lamar, ballardhilton, gordon, alexander, d.moore, wright, mi.floyd, jefrey, randlerudolph, gresham

 

[Tau837]

Prior to Sunday, I viewed Cousins as not being rosterable in my leagues (not particularly deep rosters). How about now? Anyone think he gains any value due to the injury? I think not, but I've seen him picked up in a couple leagues.

 

[MAC_32]

Prior to Sunday, I viewed Cousins as not being rosterable in my leagues (not particularly deep rosters). How about now? Anyone think he gains any value due to the injury? I think not, but I've seen him picked up in a couple leagues.

Cousins became rosterable after his cameo in the Baltimore game and a must handcuff for RG3 owners after the Cleveland game. Obviously, league size dependent.

 

[scothawk]

If Harris from GB does anything in the next couple of weeks I am selling.Not sure what to ask in terms of price though.

I picked him up and am looking to move him, but I have no idea at what price.

If you want bat**** crazy price, he went 6.12 in one mock ahead of the followinggore, ingram, bryce, d.richardson, hillmn, hunter, rodgers, lamar, ballardhilton, gordon, alexander, d.moore, wright, mi.floyd, jefrey, randlerudolph, gresham

Wow, with the possible exceptions of Bryce and Rodgers, I would take any of them straight up for him without question

 

[Bamac]

Prior to Sunday, I viewed Cousins as not being rosterable in my leagues (not particularly deep rosters). How about now? Anyone think he gains any value due to the injury? I think not, but I've seen him picked up in a couple leagues.

Cousins became rosterable after his cameo in the Baltimore game and a must handcuff for RG3 owners after the Cleveland game. Obviously, league size dependent.

I own him in a couple 25- to 30-man roster leagues. Picked him up at end of regular season. Don't own RG3.

 

[Concept Coop]

Prior to Sunday, I viewed Cousins as not being rosterable in my leagues (not particularly deep rosters). How about now? Anyone think he gains any value due to the injury? I think not, but I've seen him picked up in a couple leagues.

I picked him up in a 14 team league yesterday. If he is in fact starting next year, he'll have value. Worth a roster spot in most leagues, I would say. Was stoked to grab him in my only 2QB league.

 

[Bamac]

Prior to Sunday, I viewed Cousins as not being rosterable in my leagues (not particularly deep rosters). How about now? Anyone think he gains any value due to the injury? I think not, but I've seen him picked up in a couple leagues.

I picked him up in a 14 team league yesterday. If he is in fact starting next year, he'll have value. Worth a roster spot in most leagues, I would say. Was stoked to grab him in my only 2QB league.

Agreed. Remember, Grossman/Beck combined for 590 attempts in 2011. Shanny teams are pretty consistently top-10 in attempts. This year is a glaring exception, but RG3 is the likely explanation.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

The answer has to be DX though I know there might not be a lot of interest

For me he's been a buy (and I'm fully aware of the risk) because his price tag is so low and his upside is fairly high. I got him for a later second round pick during the season once he started producing in SD and just recently accepted an offer of him for Santonio Holmes. That tells me that of you own him, you basically should hold, not sell.

 

[Andrew74]

If you want bat**** crazy price, he went 6.12 in one mock ahead of the followinggore, ingram, bryce, d.richardson, hillmn, hunter, rodgers, lamar, ballardhilton, gordon, alexander, d.moore, wright, mi.floyd, jefrey, randlerudolph, gresham

Wow. I was thinking of offering him to a Packers homer in one league for Randle. Maybe that's not as bad an offer as I thought.

 

[scothawk]

If you want bat**** crazy price, he went 6.12 in one mock ahead of the followinggore, ingram, bryce, d.richardson, hillmn, hunter, rodgers, lamar, ballardhilton, gordon, alexander, d.moore, wright, mi.floyd, jefrey, randlerudolph, gresham

Wow. I was thinking of offering him to a Packers homer in one league for Randle. Maybe that's not as bad an offer as I thought.

Packers seemed to like him tonight. Im going to see what I can get.

 

[pghrob]

Mike Wallace owner here who has him in a ppr league. Strongly considering to sell but rolling dice on waiting to see where he lands first. Could he land in Indy?

 

[Spike]

Mike Wallace owner here who has him in a ppr league. Strongly considering to sell but rolling dice on waiting to see where he lands first. Could he land in Indy?

I'm in the exact same boat. There's no way (imo) to set a proper value for him right now due to that uncertainty.I definitely don't see why he'd be on your list as a "sell high", though.

 

[relic]

Adrian Peterson - I'll admit that I never expected such a dominant comeback. He's having an awe-inspiring season, but he's a 28 year old RB with 1700+ career carries.

I think this is the perfect time to sell Peterson, but having a hard time determining value. Don't want to turn this into an AC post, but what is his estimated worth in a typical 12x25 dynasty? See a lot of guys selling Foster, would you consider him more or less valuable than Foster?

 

[pghrob]

Mike Wallace owner here who has him in a ppr league. Strongly considering to sell but rolling dice on waiting to see where he lands first. Could he land in Indy?

I'm in the exact same boat. There's no way (imo) to set a proper value for him right now due to that uncertainty.I definitely don't see why he'd be on your list as a "sell high", though.

I guess I think he may be due for another down year. Maybe the sell high for him was after the 2011 season.

 

[Chazzhawk]

Kaepernick after last night, I see him as a mid to bottom qb1 for his career. The right buyer right now sees him as a better version of RG3 or Cam Newton.

 

[ctrlaltdefeat]

Sell high on Roddy White. Elite production for maybe only 1 or 2 seasons. Watching the game you could see he somewhat looks to be slowing down with the physical part of the game.

 

[Hoosier16]

Mike Wallace owner here who has him in a ppr league. Strongly considering to sell but rolling dice on waiting to see where he lands first. Could he land in Indy?

I'm in the exact same boat. There's no way (imo) to set a proper value for him right now due to that uncertainty.I definitely don't see why he'd be on your list as a "sell high", though.

I guess I think he may be due for another down year. Maybe the sell high for him was after the 2011 season.

You couldn't really get any value last year either. It was the uncertainty of a holdout combined with the Antonia Brown mania that drove his price down to the "not worth trading" point. I think to get any substantial value now, you have to hold into next season.

 

[scothawk]

Kenny Britt.Just be aware that "high" might not refer to his value, mnore his state of sobriety.

 

[bonesman]

... I'd, throw in Quizz Rodgers while I'm at it.

...Ha, I'd have thrown Quizz in there but I figured everyone had come to their senses since the preseason. The Quizz hype here was laughable. After another sub-4.0 ypc season, I doubt he's got much value, but by all means trade away if you can find someone who still believes he'll be handed the keys next year.

I would like to be a buyer on Quizz but am wary of how ATL intends to use him... although at least one pundit thinks they could cut Turner with one year on his contract and go to Quizz:ESPN's Pat Yasinskas suggests Michael Turner could be cut this offseason.Turner continues to follow the typical career path of an aging NFL running back. Showing an alarming lack of burst and averaging just 3.60 YPC, he's been gradually phased out of the offense this season in favor of speedier options. Now his 2013 non-guaranteed salary ($5.5 million) becomes an issue. Yasinskas believes Jacquizz Rodgers is auditioning for next year's feature back role. Jan 10 - 8:38 AMSource: ESPN.com

 

[KellysHeroes]

Kaepernick after last night, I see him as a mid to bottom qb1 for his career. The right buyer right now sees him as a better version of RG3 or Cam Newton.

Thats bold; I can see saying that while we wait to see how RGIII reacts from his injuries but I still rather Cam or Kaep.

 

[cstu]

Kaepernick after last night, I see him as a mid to bottom qb1 for his career. The right buyer right now sees him as a better version of RG3 or Cam Newton.

Thats bold; I can see saying that while we wait to see how RGIII reacts from his injuries but I still rather Cam or Kaep.

He's definitely a sell high if people are willing to give up Griffin for him.

 

[FF Ninja]

... I'd, throw in Quizz Rodgers while I'm at it.

...Ha, I'd have thrown Quizz in there but I figured everyone had come to their senses since the preseason. The Quizz hype here was laughable. After another sub-4.0 ypc season, I doubt he's got much value, but by all means trade away if you can find someone who still believes he'll be handed the keys next year.

I would like to be a buyer on Quizz but am wary of how ATL intends to use him... although at least one pundit thinks they could cut Turner with one year on his contract and go to Quizz:ESPN's Pat Yasinskas suggests Michael Turner could be cut this offseason.Turner continues to follow the typical career path of an aging NFL running back. Showing an alarming lack of burst and averaging just 3.60 YPC, he's been gradually phased out of the offense this season in favor of speedier options. Now his 2013 non-guaranteed salary ($5.5 million) becomes an issue. Yasinskas believes Jacquizz Rodgers is auditioning for next year's feature back role. Jan 10 - 8:38 AMSource: ESPN.com

I fully agree they should cut Turner. He does show an alarming lack of burst. As does Quizz. The difference is that Turner once had it. Quizz was a great college RB. He's small so people on this board think he's some sort of poor man's Sproles. But if you buy that hype, there's a reason why you're poor (in fantasy football). He's nothing more than a role player. He doesn't have the size/speed combo to be a starter. He's got the speed of a bruiser and the size of a scat back.I really expect him to be back next year, again as a role player, while the Falcons sign a FA to take Turner's place. Or draft someone. They might be up against the cap. If you trade for Quizz, you are hoping that they draft someone to take over Turner's role and he doesn't pan out. The only way Quizz is worthwhile as a fantasy starter next year is if he receives a Doug Martin workload.

 

[matttyl]

Kaepernick after last night, I see him as a mid to bottom qb1 for his career. The right buyer right now sees him as a better version of RG3 or Cam Newton.

Thats bold; I can see saying that while we wait to see how RGIII reacts from his injuries but I still rather Cam or Kaep.

He's definitely a sell high if people are willing to give up Griffin for him.

The RG3 owner in my dynasty league just offered him straight up for Kaepernick. The Kaepernick owner declined. I think it's the whole "one in the hand rather than two in the bush" philosophy. Kaep is doing what a healthy RG3 was doing, so why take the injured version and have to wait on his recovery through possibly the start of next season?

 

[scothawk]

I sold Quizz at the trade deadline in my league. I don't regret it.He didnt make the job his even with Turner sagging. I don't think their 2013 starter is on the roster. Either qa FA or 2/3rd rounder is going to be the man here.

 

[Hoosier16]

I sold Quizz at the trade deadline in my league. I don't regret it.He didnt make the job his even with Turner sagging. I don't think their 2013 starter is on the roster. Either qa FA or 2/3rd rounder is going to be the man here.

Wells would fit well, with no role changes needed.

 

[dickey moe]

Sell Ridley while you can.

 

[humpback]

I sold Quizz at the trade deadline in my league. I don't regret it.He didnt make the job his even with Turner sagging. I don't think their 2013 starter is on the roster. Either qa FA or 2/3rd rounder is going to be the man here.

Wells would fit well, with no role changes needed.

I doubt it's going to happen, but I'd love to see Reggie Bush there.

 

[lbouchard]

Depending on the QB market in your league, Matt Ryan.

 

[bonesman]

I sold Quizz at the trade deadline in my league. I don't regret it.He didnt make the job his even with Turner sagging. I don't think their 2013 starter is on the roster. Either qa FA or 2/3rd rounder is going to be the man here.

Wells would fit well, with no role changes needed.

I doubt it's going to happen, but I'd love to see Reggie Bush there.

On the same note, Felix Jones could be the FF beast he was born to be in the ATL.

 

[FUBAR]

Any thoughts on Flacco? I figured I'd be trading him this off-season (he's our 3rd QB) but starting to rethink that. I've found that usually, when I re-think whether to trade someone, it's often a good time to trade them. (hope that makes sense). Figure he has top 5 ability, but I don't ever see him being more than a low starting caliber QB in 12 team leagues.

 

[Spin]

For people saying to sell the likes of Foster, Rice, ADP (I think someone even mentioned Calvin). What exactly can you hope to get?I own both Rice and Calvin in one league, and even if I were to sell "high" would it even be worth it? Move Rice for Martin + Picks? I doubt the Martin owner would even consider that. What do you sell a top 5 player at their position? Another 5-8ish ranged RB/WR + Picks? The drop off from Top 5, to 6-10 is so big, that it'd kill my hopes for the next season.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

I doubt it's going to happen, but I'd love to see Reggie Bush there.

On the same note, Felix Jones could be the FF beast he was born to be in the ATL.

Bush, Mendenhall and to a lesser degree Felix are all guys who could totally bust out if they land in a bad place, but have ceilings well above their current price IMO. And Felix is the cheapest by a mile. Great buy right now IMO.

 

[meyerj31]

For people saying to sell the likes of Foster, Rice, ADP (I think someone even mentioned Calvin). What exactly can you hope to get?I own both Rice and Calvin in one league, and even if I were to sell "high" would it even be worth it? Move Rice for Martin + Picks? I doubt the Martin owner would even consider that. What do you sell a top 5 player at their position? Another 5-8ish ranged RB/WR + Picks? The drop off from Top 5, to 6-10 is so big, that it'd kill my hopes for the next season.

In a dynasty league I would be happy with a straight up trade of Rice for Martin... you're getting a workhorse back that is 4 years younger.And didn't Martin just score 40 more points on the season compared to Rice? In non-PPR Martin was the number 2 back. Why wouldn't you do this is my question...