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As someone who watches almost no college football, and reads all spring about guys I have never seen, this makes me wonder not about Patterson so much, but EVERYONE else in this class.
Think its just that theres no standouts at any position really. WR in particular looks deep to me but above average deep, no studs. You could take the top 8 guys and completely turn them upside down and nobody would blink an eye. Probably will change a bit after the actual draft though.
Count his rushing yards and he had 1,086 - more than AJ Green's and Hunter's career highs. And that is ignoring his nearly 800 return yards (and 2 TDs, added to his 8 TDs from scrimmage). I guess we need to define what production means.
Below is a quote from one of our discussions in the 2014 dynasty thread.
You quoted no production over and over again as a negative for Patterson, while it was okay for Richardson because you could see the talent. Which is it?You said limited production:'EBF said:
You're absolutely right.
I must be color blind. Could you please show those to me? ETA: The reports out of IMG saying he doesn't look special may have something to do with the fact that he's still dealing with the knee injury? Perhaps?
Wouldn't that be the case with 95%+ of the players we discuss?'EBF said:
They threw him the ball a lot. He didn't do very much with it once it got to him.
There are plenty of drafts in which WRs don't go in the top 10. Sure, some teams reach for need. But, in general, if a WR goes top 10, it is because they grade the player as such.
... But why are they graded as such? Usually it's because they have elite production and measurable. Projectible types don't get drafted thatearly. If he does this year then it's due to desperation, not a rationale grade. I wouldn't do it but I can see a team justifying him late day one or early day two, not earlier though.
Allen has the highest floor in this class.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sskHoNba-JEhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WhdVSwSPIocNot every WR prospect has to run a 4.3 or be the next AJ Green/Calvin/Julio Jones to be good in the NFL.
What other cases are there of top 15 wrs with limited production and elite measureables? The Georgia Tech wrs are the only ones I can think of and they have a very strong reason. Add to that the character red flags that have circled. Someone may take him that early, doesn't make it a good pick. The top of the first round is not the time to play russian roulette. Teams that do often get fired shortly thereafter.
Limited production, didn't we already cover this?Michael Crabtree and Justin Blackmon didn't have elite measureables, but elite production and they went top ten.AJ Green stats in college:08= 56 receptions 963 17.2 8 TD09= 53 receptions 808 15.2 6 TD10= 57 receptions 848 14.9 9 TDPatterson= 46 receptions 778 16.9 5 TD, also 1000 other total yards and 5 more TDs.
There are talks about many scouts making these claims. This isn't a DHB reach we are talking about here, where one team falls in love with a 40 time. It is very clear that the kid has special potential, and if a team feels they can use that, and that it is worthy of a top 10 pick - they will draft him.Limited production? He had more yards from scrimmage than AJ Green ever did - 8 TDs too. And nearly 800 return yards and 2 more TDs added there. Why are the yards he added on the ground not considered production?
Very true, I liked Cecil Shorts coming into the league for example.But NFL quality WRs do have to be able to threaten a collegiate defense with a big play when they get the ball. And Allen really doesn't do that very often.
The quality of his QB cannot be dismissed here, Zach Maynard was beyond bad. Allen made plenty of 3rd down/4th down catches for first downs, can make DB's miss, high point a jump ball, quick feet, good size, etc. Marquess Colston/Larry Fitzgerald/Brandon Marshall/Stevie Johnson/Eric Decker are all possession players, like Keenan Allen, that are affective at the next level. None of them are 4.3 speed demons, but use size/hands/positioning/etc to make big plays.ETA: Maynard is at least a half yard less YPA behind Matt Barkley/Geno Smith/Tyler Bray. Over the season, that's a lot of yards. To say he has physical limitations is an understatement.
FWIW, AJ Green missed 3 games in 2009 and 4 games in 2010; else he breaks 1000 yards in both seasons.
You have confirmed that you have not watched him play, nor have an understanding between not having great deep speed versus being good after the catch. A. boldin camparison he is drawing is because he does stuff after catching the ball, but is not a consistent long play treat. Pretty much people who watched Allen play largely think he is excellent with the ball in his hands.Here is Matt Waldman for example. This goes on about his ability to separate, but starts with extreme compliments about him withthe ball in his hands. http://mattwaldmanrsp.com/2012/04/03/cal-wr-keenan-allen-creating-separation-with-his-hands/
Good point. Patterson doesn't get any credit for having a much better YPC or a little slack for transitioning to Tennessee/new offense/chemistry with QB/etc?
It shows he could be a very good returner... But is he a great wr? Comparing him to ted ginn would be unfair but his case must be kept in mind when evaluating a guy like Patterson. Is he just an athletic freak? Or can he play football too? One is a day three project, the other is a first round pick. That's why I have Patterson somewhere in between, ignoring the risk here would be a mistake.
There is risk with every player and this guy is being talked about as the #1 WR in his class for a reason. No disrespect, but I going with the professionals on this one.
We all have our methods of evaluation, if I expected everyone to take my word as gospel i would be nuts. My reasoning stems from the reasons prospects bust. Health, over valuing potential, being an idiot, and not caring about football. You can't control issue one, but you can control the latter three. I would never draft any of those types before the end of round one. Others may, I prefer to take my risks later. Same story with my fantasy teams. I will take gambles outside of round one in rookie drafts and outside the first few rounds in yearly leagues. My foundation? No way. Roll snake eyes on a couple of foundation pieces and you're likely sunk.
No doubt, and I can't blame anyone for thinking he is risky. I just don't think the fact that you think he is risky means the team drafting him in the top 10 is reaching.
Certainly agree with the start-up drafting theory. However in FF rookie drafts, give me a player with a chance to be a FF WR1/2(Patterson) vs the safe players of Quinton Patton/DeAndre Hopkins/etc. Just like in those trade threads, the studs matter vs quantity. Obtaining them, risky or not, is important too. That's why grabbing a guy like Lattimore, while he's injured isn't a bad play because he's a low value. He used to be the 1.1 in some people's eyes.
I have pick 1.12, if Lattimore falls he is the pick. I will strongly consider Hopkins before Patterson, probably not Patton though. As I have said from the beginning about this specific crop situation matters so much more than previous years. A lower ceiling early round pick in a good situation will get the bump over Patterson in my book.
I agree situations, where NFL teams draft them will help. I also like Hopkins a ton more than Patton.
I thought Allen would be a good fit with the Vikings because they don't go deep often anyways. People were telling me that he would never fall to 23. If he still has lingering injury issues he could fall even further.
