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*2014-15 Hot Stove Thread: The Padres won it I guess (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Eephus
- Start date
RnR
Footballguy
For all the slamming we do of MLB in this thread, I'd like to throw heap some praise their way.
The MLB At-Bat is just fantastic. Not only can you get television, radio, and gametracker functionality on demand, but the Spring Training coverage has been top notch. Every afternoon there is fresh content for each team with stories, videos, etc. Just a really nice app that is done right.
The MLB At-Bat is just fantastic. Not only can you get television, radio, and gametracker functionality on demand, but the Spring Training coverage has been top notch. Every afternoon there is fresh content for each team with stories, videos, etc. Just a really nice app that is done right.
He has a career 3.21 ERA/ 1.19 whip thru 500 IP. Those are stellar/elite #'s. You can diminish that all you like I suppose, but the list of guys who have those type of ratios over their 1st 500 IP is pretty small I'd imagine. Kershaw couldn't even match those #'s to start his career. EDIT (He matched Cobb in ERA 3.17, WHIP 1.27)
The only concern with Cobb was his workload, as u referenced, still hasn't pitched 200+ IP. The skills/stuff is not questioned at all. Or shouldn't be.
And thanks, you stay peachy also.
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Mr. Know-It-All
Footballguy
So - in high school - any rostered player not currently in the game, or who has not previously been in the game, may be used as a courtesy runner for the pitcher or the catcher. The same courtesy runner cannot be used for both positions in the same inning. Also, the player(s) used as a courtesy runner(s), cannot be entered into the game defensively in the next half inning. If a player has already been in the game and removed, they cannot be used as a courtesy runner for pitcher or catcher - if they are used to run it falls under re-entry rules.
I am not adverse to this being used as a means to speed up the game at college and pro levels - but as a purist, would prefer no courtesy runner and no DH.
Odd fact I did not know - in high school, the designated hitter does not necessarily have to be for the pitcher. If this was the case in MLB - I could have seen La Russa hitting for the SS and allowing the Pitcher to hit with as wacky as he was.
I am not adverse to this being used as a means to speed up the game at college and pro levels - but as a purist, would prefer no courtesy runner and no DH.
Odd fact I did not know - in high school, the designated hitter does not necessarily have to be for the pitcher. If this was the case in MLB - I could have seen La Russa hitting for the SS and allowing the Pitcher to hit with as wacky as he was.
RnR
Footballguy
Alex Cobb is 6 months older than Clayton Kershaw. Comparing their development or career arc seems a little unfair to both of them.
Ok then find me the # of SP's of any age/development who matched that production over their 1st 500 IP. Let me know what you find.
You seem to want to diminish Cobb for whatever reason. I guess workload is the only thing you can point to. I prefer to focus on talent/skill. Overvalued as #2? Thats just crazy talk. He's been 1 of the best pitchers in baseball over the last 2 seasons.
Limp Ditka
Footballguy
GILDA!
rodg12
Footballguy
For a game pigeonholed as being 'uncool' or 'old' or whatever nonsense term people are throwing out these days for the tweens and such, MLB's advancements in technology has blown away that of the NFL and NBA. Easily one of the best decisions they've made in the last decade was embracing the streaming game and loading up on the technology to do it. It's become insanely profitable for them too. They now contract out use of their MLBAM streaming services/servers to places like CBS and HBO. Just raking in the dough and making a great experience for the fans at the same time.
RnR
Footballguy
What an arbitrary line to draw for production. One, I might add, that is tailored to your pro-Cobb argument because of his staggered start to his MLB career. He wasn't taking his lumps at 22 or 23 like most of the elite pitchers were. But I'm not doing your NFBC homework for you.
I bet you were a big Rich Harden fan, weren't you?
RnR
Footballguy
FWIW, I think Cobb is a fine pitcher at the right spot in the draft. I just acknowledge it likely won't be me taking him. If I'm using a Top 100 pick on a pitcher, it is a guy with a combination of health, talent, and opportunity that nets me a reasonable expectation of 200+ quality IP to build my ratios. He doesn't really fit that profile at this point.
Cobb threw his 1st major league pitch at the senior age of 24. How many Clayton Kerhsaws/Felix Hernandez types are out there (in terms of age)? The majority of SP's follow Cobb's progression actually, not the minority. So that argument is perfectly fair and reasonable. You not taking the plunge on elite level production in the top 100 because he hasn't thrown 200 IP just shows me you're to conservative. I'm sure you wanted no part of Kershaw in 2010. I don't mind taking that gamble in rd 7/8.
If you don't feel up to it, just ask your NFBC partner to do that homework for you.
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RnR
Footballguy
I'm not even sure what you're talking about anymore re: NFBC partner. But please do share when/where you are drafting as I'd be glad to follow your season.
I have my rankings in front of me. With the exception of Corey Kluber and Matt Harvey, every pitcher I have ranked above Cobb was a far more established pitcher by Age 28 season and most logged multiple seasons with significant MLB innings by their 25th birthday.
You can call me too conservative if you wish, but I'm pretty sure most of the top tier NFBC players you seem to be worried about would tell you that the first ten rounds are about building a base of highly reliable production. Not to say you shouldn't speculate on upside, but it is far more important to limit downside. I think the rosters of the 11 main event winners would back that up.
I have my rankings in front of me. With the exception of Corey Kluber and Matt Harvey, every pitcher I have ranked above Cobb was a far more established pitcher by Age 28 season and most logged multiple seasons with significant MLB innings by their 25th birthday.
You can call me too conservative if you wish, but I'm pretty sure most of the top tier NFBC players you seem to be worried about would tell you that the first ten rounds are about building a base of highly reliable production. Not to say you shouldn't speculate on upside, but it is far more important to limit downside. I think the rosters of the 11 main event winners would back that up.
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MAC_32
Footballguy
There are really people taking issue with Cobb's pre-injury value? He was right where he belonged, in that group of players that have displayed the ability to be an ace but cannot be trusted as one, yet, for a variety of reasons. If you don't pick an ace then pick two from that tier and hope one hits and the other doesn't kill you. If so then you're likely in a better position than the guy who picked an ace, but...risk.
Please post this list, im curious to see it. I'd like to see those names u have in front of him. Cobb is also 27, doesn't turn 28 until October.
You also said previously Cobb is a mid-tier SP2 at best. That puts him at SP18 in 12 team format. Where do you think you're getting a mid-range SP2 in the NFBC? Top-18 SP's don't fall past the top 100 picks....ever.
Ok maybe ever is strong, but 95% of the time, they're all gone.
The only 2 SP's in the top 18 that fell past pick 100 thus far according to ADP: Wainwright (103) which is comical and Darvish (499)
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RnR
Footballguy
Didn't u just ask for my draft date to follow along?Why would I send my list to a competitor?
Peyton Marino
Footballguy
great stuff guys
Mr. Pickles
Footballguy
Still love Cobb.
The Arrieta love is a little much for me.
The Arrieta love is a little much for me.
This will be gold for Wieters owners once he becomes the full time DH replacing that turd Snider.
RnR
Footballguy
But at an appropriate level. You passed on him eight times in Cake (while taking three pitchers), where he was selected as the 116th player overall.
RnR
Footballguy
Peyton Marino
Footballguy
actually on a relative basis that's even later as we were ~2 rounds ahead on drafting pitchers.The sharks play in Pie. He was taken 108th overall there.116th? ---
Think the term 'sharks' there is being used loosely no? LOL.The sharks play in Pie. He was taken 108th overall there.116th? ---
Some of those picks are downright comical.
Another thing that's funny, you're not comfortable taking Cobb as your #2 because of health concerns/workload, but you're more then comfortable taking Wacha as your SP2 at 138. Also don't wait so dam long on pitching, otherwise you end up with a staff that looks like yours.
Sigh.
Dickie Dunn
Footballguy
One set of projections I use has the following for batter strikeouts this season (-.5 in my points league):
Javier Baez 297
Chris Davis 270
Jon Singleton 211
Jay Bruce 204
George Springer 202
Will Middlebrooks 200
Steven Souza 199
Mike Zunino 198
Ian Desmond 197
Considering 200 Ks has been hit only six times -- three by Mark Reynolds -- this seems a little extreme.
Javier Baez 297
Chris Davis 270
Jon Singleton 211
Jay Bruce 204
George Springer 202
Will Middlebrooks 200
Steven Souza 199
Mike Zunino 198
Ian Desmond 197
Considering 200 Ks has been hit only six times -- three by Mark Reynolds -- this seems a little extreme.
RnR
Footballguy
Seems conservative on Baez, IMO.One set of projections I use has the following for batter strikeouts this season (-.5 in my points league):
Javier Baez 297
Chris Davis 270
Jon Singleton 211
Jay Bruce 204
George Springer 202
Will Middlebrooks 200
Steven Souza 199
Mike Zunino 198
Ian Desmond 197
Considering 200 Ks has been hit only six times -- three by Mark Reynolds -- this seems a little extreme.
Eephus
Footballguy
Baez struck out in 41.5% of his 2014 PAs. He'd have to have make 715 PAs this year at the same rate in order to rack up 297 SOs.One set of projections I use has the following for batter strikeouts this season (-.5 in my points league):
Javier Baez 297
Chris Davis 270
Jon Singleton 211
Jay Bruce 204
George Springer 202
Will Middlebrooks 200
Steven Souza 199
Mike Zunino 198
Ian Desmond 197
Considering 200 Ks has been hit only six times -- three by Mark Reynolds -- this seems a little extreme.
That's pretty much impossible. If Baez strikes out more than 40% of the time, he won't play. Even Reynolds only topped 35% once in his career.
ZiPS projects Baez for 212 SO in 650 PAs. Steamer is much more conservative with 143 in 467. The latter seems more reasonable to me.
rodg12
Footballguy
Good time to burn these projections.One set of projections I use has the following for batter strikeouts this season (-.5 in my points league):
Javier Baez 297
Chris Davis 270
Jon Singleton 211
Jay Bruce 204
George Springer 202
Will Middlebrooks 200
Steven Souza 199
Mike Zunino 198
Ian Desmond 197
Considering 200 Ks has been hit only six times -- three by Mark Reynolds -- this seems a little extreme.
MAC_32
Footballguy
I would argue as of a week ago that Iwakuma is a bigger injury risk than Cobb.
Eephus
Footballguy
RnR
Footballguy
All kidding aside, that is pretty bad. Mind sharing the source?Good time to burn these projections.One set of projections I use has the following for batter strikeouts this season (-.5 in my points league):
Javier Baez 297
Chris Davis 270
Jon Singleton 211
Jay Bruce 204
George Springer 202
Will Middlebrooks 200
Steven Souza 199
Mike Zunino 198
Ian Desmond 197
Considering 200 Ks has been hit only six times -- three by Mark Reynolds -- this seems a little extreme.
Dickie Dunn
Footballguy
Insider Baseball.All kidding aside, that is pretty bad. Mind sharing the source?Good time to burn these projections.One set of projections I use has the following for batter strikeouts this season (-.5 in my points league):
Javier Baez 297
Chris Davis 270
Jon Singleton 211
Jay Bruce 204
George Springer 202
Will Middlebrooks 200
Steven Souza 199
Mike Zunino 198
Ian Desmond 197
Considering 200 Ks has been hit only six times -- three by Mark Reynolds -- this seems a little extreme.
Northern Voice
Footballguy
Dead to me.
RnR
Footballguy
How many plate appearances are they projecting? Is it possible this is an error?Insider Baseball.All kidding aside, that is pretty bad. Mind sharing the source?Good time to burn these projections.One set of projections I use has the following for batter strikeouts this season (-.5 in my points league):
Javier Baez 297
Chris Davis 270
Jon Singleton 211
Jay Bruce 204
George Springer 202
Will Middlebrooks 200
Steven Souza 199
Mike Zunino 198
Ian Desmond 197
Considering 200 Ks has been hit only six times -- three by Mark Reynolds -- this seems a little extreme.
Limp Ditka
Footballguy
Dickie Dunn
Footballguy
522 AB, plus 42 BB. They project him for 125 hits and 26 HR, so essentially they're projecting a BABIP of about .500.How many plate appearances are they projecting? Is it possible this is an error?Insider Baseball.All kidding aside, that is pretty bad. Mind sharing the source?Good time to burn these projections.One set of projections I use has the following for batter strikeouts this season (-.5 in my points league):
Javier Baez 297
Chris Davis 270
Jon Singleton 211
Jay Bruce 204
George Springer 202
Will Middlebrooks 200
Steven Souza 199
Mike Zunino 198
Ian Desmond 197
Considering 200 Ks has been hit only six times -- three by Mark Reynolds -- this seems a little extreme.
For Davis, it's 270 K / 540 AB (or ~ 640 AB).
Eephus
Footballguy
That's 52.6% SO. It would challenge Blind Papa Johnson's record from the 1937 Pittsburgh Crawfords.522 AB, plus 42 BB. They project him for 125 hits and 26 HR, so essentially they're projecting a BABIP of about .500.How many plate appearances are they projecting? Is it possible this is an error?Insider Baseball.All kidding aside, that is pretty bad. Mind sharing the source?Good time to burn these projections.One set of projections I use has the following for batter strikeouts this season (-.5 in my points league):
Javier Baez 297
Chris Davis 270
Jon Singleton 211
Jay Bruce 204
George Springer 202
Will Middlebrooks 200
Steven Souza 199
Mike Zunino 198
Ian Desmond 197
Considering 200 Ks has been hit only six times -- three by Mark Reynolds -- this seems a little extreme.
For Davis, it's 270 K / 540 AB (or ~ 640 AB).
