*2014-15 Hot Stove Thread: The Padres won it I guess (1 Viewer)

[Annyong]

Padres all like #### you guys and you're defensive metrics stuff. We wanna mash.

Keep it in the Padres thread, skip

 

[RnR]

tommygunz?

 

[Northern Voice]

Padres will be entertaining on both sides of the ball.

 

[Annyong]

Padres will be entertaining on both sides of the ball.

This makes me happy.

 

[shadyridr]

Padres all like #### you guys and you're defensive metrics stuff. We wanna mash.

I dont have any problem with gathering a strength and just going all in. Most teams these days are watered down and have serious flaws. This is why I wanted the Yankees to resign Robertson and go with a killer bullpen. Sometimes thats all you need is one killer unit to get you to the playoffs and then its a crapshoot. If the Padres just mash (they have a solid pitching staff too) but suck at defense they still should be in the wild card hunt all year.

 

[RnR]

Padres have an agreement with David Ross. Everyone get the next two weeks off if they remake the team by close of business?

 

[Good Posting Judge]

Padres all like #### you guys and you're defensive metrics stuff. We wanna mash.

I dont have any problem with gathering a strength and just going all in. Most teams these days are watered down and have serious flaws. This is why I wanted the Yankees to resign Robertson and go with a killer bullpen. Sometimes thats all you need is one killer unit to get you to the playoffs and then its a crapshoot. If the Padres just mash (they have a solid pitching staff too) but suck at defense they still should be in the wild card hunt all year.

But they are in the worst park in the majors for a strategy that values power over everything else. And with a playoffs that is a crapshoot, does it make sense to trade off sp much of your farm? They gave up a ton of controlled talent for a year of Upton. And they can't hide Kemp in a corner anymore.

Ask Cleveland's starting rotation if one good unit is enough to overcome crummy defense.

 

[RnR]

It is funny to see people obsessing over defensive metrics now, because a decade ago these were likely the same people that said it was moronic to consider defense at all when valuating players.

 

[Limp Ditka]

Latos chomping on the gum so loudly, you can hear it while Mike Morse is talking

 

[Da Guru]

Sources: Padres still have many balls in air, & even with overload of OFs, continue talking with Braves re. Justin Upton as they remake team

9:06 PM - 18 Dec 2014

Jesus ####### Christ

Who plays center if that happens?

Move Kemp to first

Derek Norris can prolly play center

So, they now have 4 corner OFers, a catcher that should be a DH, an OFer that should be a DH when healthy, a 1B converted from OF because he was terrible and Yonder Alonso. Of course the only guy on their roster that can play a decent CF can't hit.

With this defense, it might be time to knock the Padres pitchers down a few spots in the rankings.

It worked in Moneyball

 

[Bojang0301]

Sources: Padres still have many balls in air, & even with overload of OFs, continue talking with Braves re. Justin Upton as they remake team

9:06 PM - 18 Dec 2014

Jesus ####### Christ

Who plays center if that happens?

Move Kemp to first

Derek Norris can prolly play center

So, they now have 4 corner OFers, a catcher that should be a DH, an OFer that should be a DH when healthy, a 1B converted from OF because he was terrible and Yonder Alonso. Of course the only guy on their roster that can play a decent CF can't hit.

With this defense, it might be time to knock the Padres pitchers down a few spots in the rankings.

And they had 8 AAAA guys playing decent defense last year, what's your point? At least there will be something to watch in the nice stadium they have.

 

[E-Z Glider]

They go from an OF of Quentin, Venable and Smith to Justin Upton, Wil Myers and Matt Kemp in a matter of days. Pretty unbelievable.

 

[tommyGunZ]

Padres all like #### you guys and you're defensive metrics stuff. We wanna mash.

I dont have any problem with gathering a strength and just going all in. Most teams these days are watered down and have serious flaws. This is why I wanted the Yankees to resign Robertson and go with a killer bullpen. Sometimes thats all you need is one killer unit to get you to the playoffs and then its a crapshoot. If the Padres just mash (they have a solid pitching staff too) but suck at defense they still should be in the wild card hunt all year.

But they are in the worst park in the majors for a strategy that values power over everything else. And with a playoffs that is a crapshoot, does it make sense to trade off sp much of your farm? They gave up a ton of controlled talent for a year of Upton. And they can't hide Kemp in a corner anymore.

Ask Cleveland's starting rotation if one good unit is enough to overcome crummy defense.

Nope. RH power plays fine in Petco. It's lefties who struggle due to the huge power alley in right-center.

And while the Padres have unloaded a lot of "controllable talent", they've traded exactly 1 player who was an MLB top 100 prospect, Trea Turner. They've held onto Hedges, Renfroe, and Wisler, widely considered their three blue chippers.

 

[tommyGunZ]

It is funny to see people obsessing over defensive metrics now, because a decade ago these were likely the same people that said it was moronic to consider defense at all when valuating players.

Yep. It's almost as if Preller realized that folks were going overboard on defensive metrics, so the market inefficiency he's exploiting is big power bats whose overall WAR are significantly deflated by dWAR. If Preller believes that defensive metrics aren't a true, accurate reflection of a player's defensive value, it's a brilliant strategy.

 

[The Flying Elvis]

Padres all like #### you guys and you're defensive metrics stuff. We wanna mash.

I dont have any problem with gathering a strength and just going all in. Most teams these days are watered down and have serious flaws. This is why I wanted the Yankees to resign Robertson and go with a killer bullpen. Sometimes thats all you need is one killer unit to get you to the playoffs and then its a crapshoot. If the Padres just mash (they have a solid pitching staff too) but suck at defense they still should be in the wild card hunt all year.

But they are in the worst park in the majors for a strategy that values power over everything else. And with a playoffs that is a crapshoot, does it make sense to trade off sp much of your farm? They gave up a ton of controlled talent for a year of Upton. And they can't hide Kemp in a corner anymore.

Ask Cleveland's starting rotation if one good unit is enough to overcome crummy defense.

Nope. RH power plays fine in Petco. It's lefties who struggle due to the huge power alley in right-center.

And while the Padres have unloaded a lot of "controllable talent", they've traded exactly 1 player who was an MLB top 100 prospect, Trea Turner. They've held onto Hedges, Renfroe, and Wisler, widely considered their three blue chippers.

Not disagreeing since I don't watch the Padres but Pouliot is saying according to metrics that the Padres are the opposite. They are decent enough for lefties but brutal for righties.

https://twitter.com/matthewpouliot/status/545969364013305856

Petco actually has a 107 HR park factor for LHB the last three years. Righties, though, at 76, 3rd lowest in MLB (via Bill James Handbook).

 

[tommyGunZ]

Padres all like #### you guys and you're defensive metrics stuff. We wanna mash.

I dont have any problem with gathering a strength and just going all in. Most teams these days are watered down and have serious flaws. This is why I wanted the Yankees to resign Robertson and go with a killer bullpen. Sometimes thats all you need is one killer unit to get you to the playoffs and then its a crapshoot. If the Padres just mash (they have a solid pitching staff too) but suck at defense they still should be in the wild card hunt all year.

But they are in the worst park in the majors for a strategy that values power over everything else. And with a playoffs that is a crapshoot, does it make sense to trade off sp much of your farm? They gave up a ton of controlled talent for a year of Upton. And they can't hide Kemp in a corner anymore.

Ask Cleveland's starting rotation if one good unit is enough to overcome crummy defense.

Nope. RH power plays fine in Petco. It's lefties who struggle due to the huge power alley in right-center.

And while the Padres have unloaded a lot of "controllable talent", they've traded exactly 1 player who was an MLB top 100 prospect, Trea Turner. They've held onto Hedges, Renfroe, and Wisler, widely considered their three blue chippers.

Not disagreeing since I don't watch the Padres but Pouliot is saying according to metrics that the Padres are the opposite. They are decent enough for lefties but brutal for righties.

https://twitter.com/matthewpouliot/status/545969364013305856

Petco actually has a 107 HR park factor for LHB the last three years. Righties, though, at 76, 3rd lowest in MLB (via Bill James Handbook).

That's crazy. I wonder how much of that is due to the Padres having zero RH power the last few years.

Thanks for sharing - that is eye opening and goes against everything I've seen with my own eyes or read recently.

 

[the moops]

If Preller believes that defensive metrics aren't a true, accurate reflection of a player's defensive value, it's a brilliant strategy.

Yea, much better to just believe what your eyes tell you than what statistics tell you.

 

[Annyong]

If Preller believes that defensive metrics aren't a true, accurate reflection of a player's defensive value, it's a brilliant strategy.

Yea, much better to just believe what your eyes tell you than what statistics tell you.

To be fair, he was basing his opinion off of his eyes, since he was unaware of the stats, up until now.

 

[The Flying Elvis]

Dumb trade for the Marlins but I am a Eovaldi fan so who knows. He might never put it all together but a healthy cost controlled young SP with velocity and control is valuable.

 

[Bojang0301]

Padres going after Middlebrooks now. Complete revamp.

 

[Good Posting Judge]

It is funny to see people obsessing over defensive metrics now, because a decade ago these were likely the same people that said it was moronic to consider defense at all when valuating players.

Yep. It's almost as if Preller realized that folks were going overboard on defensive metrics, so the market inefficiency he's exploiting is big power bats whose overall WAR are significantly deflated by dWAR. If Preller believes that defensive metrics aren't a true, accurate reflection of a player's defensive value, it's a brilliant strategy.

Which defensive metrics? Us shmoes have UZR and DRS, but I would hope that they have their own internal data that's at least as good.

I dont doubt that the Padres will win more games next year, but I doubt it'll be enough. I think Preller is recklessly pursuing 2015 success at the expense of the rest of the decade. Just because a prospect isnt top 100 overall does not mean he doesnt have value. The odds of him being valuable are lower, but they are non-zero.

Beane's trade for Holliday was similar. And diasastrous.

 

[tommyGunZ]

If Preller believes that defensive metrics aren't a true, accurate reflection of a player's defensive value, it's a brilliant strategy.

Yea, much better to just believe what your eyes tell you than what statistics tell you.

That's not at all what I said.

 

[tommyGunZ]

It is funny to see people obsessing over defensive metrics now, because a decade ago these were likely the same people that said it was moronic to consider defense at all when valuating players.

Yep. It's almost as if Preller realized that folks were going overboard on defensive metrics, so the market inefficiency he's exploiting is big power bats whose overall WAR are significantly deflated by dWAR. If Preller believes that defensive metrics aren't a true, accurate reflection of a player's defensive value, it's a brilliant strategy.

Which defensive metrics? Us shmoes have UZR and DRS, but I would hope that they have their own internal data that's at least as good.

I dont doubt that the Padres will win more games next year, but I doubt it'll be enough. I think Preller is recklessly pursuing 2015 success at the expense of the rest of the decade. Just because a prospect isnt top 100 overall does not mean he doesnt have value. The odds of him being valuable are lower, but they are non-zero.

Beane's trade for Holliday was similar. And diasastrous.

Right, and I'm sure you've read enough to know that UZR and DRS have their flaws and don't measure lots of factors that contribute to being a good defender.

I'm not saying defensive metrics are worthless - I'm just saying that at this point they are far more flawed than the offensive metrics that we all know and love at this point.

 

[shadyridr]

Yanks trading Prado for Eovaldi. I hate that move. I guess they are ready to give Refsnyder the 2nd Base job. Eovaldi is not good.

 

[Good Posting Judge]

It is funny to see people obsessing over defensive metrics now, because a decade ago these were likely the same people that said it was moronic to consider defense at all when valuating players.

Yep. It's almost as if Preller realized that folks were going overboard on defensive metrics, so the market inefficiency he's exploiting is big power bats whose overall WAR are significantly deflated by dWAR. If Preller believes that defensive metrics aren't a true, accurate reflection of a player's defensive value, it's a brilliant strategy.

Which defensive metrics? Us shmoes have UZR and DRS, but I would hope that they have their own internal data that's at least as good.

I dont doubt that the Padres will win more games next year, but I doubt it'll be enough. I think Preller is recklessly pursuing 2015 success at the expense of the rest of the decade. Just because a prospect isnt top 100 overall does not mean he doesnt have value. The odds of him being valuable are lower, but they are non-zero.

Beane's trade for Holliday was similar. And diasastrous.

Right, and I'm sure you've read enough to know that UZR and DRS have their flaws and don't measure lots of factors that contribute to being a good defender.

I'm not saying defensive metrics are worthless - I'm just saying that at this point they are far more flawed than the offensive metrics that we all know and love at this point.

It is a brilliant strategy if a) preller has better metrics and b) said metrics like the players they've acquired more than UZR, etc.

UZR is imperfect, thus i will ignore a player's defense is some flawed-### thinking.

 

[Raider Nation]

Yanks trading Prado for Eovaldi. I hate that move. I guess they are ready to give Refsnyder the 2nd Base job. Eovaldi is not good.

I've been impressed with him at times. Cautiously optimistic.

 

[Good Posting Judge]

Eovaldi isnt a world-beater, but it's a net positive for nyy imo.

 

[The Flying Elvis]

Yanks trading Prado for Eovaldi. I hate that move. I guess they are ready to give Refsnyder the 2nd Base job. Eovaldi is not good.

I've been impressed with him at times. Cautiously optimistic.

Eovaldi is one of those guys who could be a pitch or adjustment away from making it all work. Similar to Garrett Richards from last year. He doesn't get the swing and misses you expect but he has great velocity and pretty good command. If he can develop an adequate change up he can be good.

 

[tommyGunZ]

It is funny to see people obsessing over defensive metrics now, because a decade ago these were likely the same people that said it was moronic to consider defense at all when valuating players.

Yep. It's almost as if Preller realized that folks were going overboard on defensive metrics, so the market inefficiency he's exploiting is big power bats whose overall WAR are significantly deflated by dWAR. If Preller believes that defensive metrics aren't a true, accurate reflection of a player's defensive value, it's a brilliant strategy.

Which defensive metrics? Us shmoes have UZR and DRS, but I would hope that they have their own internal data that's at least as good.

I dont doubt that the Padres will win more games next year, but I doubt it'll be enough. I think Preller is recklessly pursuing 2015 success at the expense of the rest of the decade. Just because a prospect isnt top 100 overall does not mean he doesnt have value. The odds of him being valuable are lower, but they are non-zero.

Beane's trade for Holliday was similar. And diasastrous.

Right, and I'm sure you've read enough to know that UZR and DRS have their flaws and don't measure lots of factors that contribute to being a good defender.

I'm not saying defensive metrics are worthless - I'm just saying that at this point they are far more flawed than the offensive metrics that we all know and love at this point.

It is a brilliant strategy if a) preller has better metrics and b) said metrics like the players they've acquired more than UZR, etc.

UZR is imperfect, thus i will ignore a player's defense is some flawed-### thinking.

I don't think anyone is ignoring UZR. What I'm suggesting is that if Preller believes the market is artificially devaluing dudes because of what he believes are flaws in current defensive metrics, he's exploiting an inefficiency.

I'm not suggesting advanced metrics are useless, but I think I agree with James that we're at the point of going overboard on WAR. I watched probably 150 Padre games last year, the idea that Seth Smith (3.9 WAR) was more than 3X more valuable than Matt Kemp (1.1 WAR) is asinine.

 

[RnR]

It is funny to see people obsessing over defensive metrics now, because a decade ago these were likely the same people that said it was moronic to consider defense at all when valuating players.

Yep. It's almost as if Preller realized that folks were going overboard on defensive metrics, so the market inefficiency he's exploiting is big power bats whose overall WAR are significantly deflated by dWAR. If Preller believes that defensive metrics aren't a true, accurate reflection of a player's defensive value, it's a brilliant strategy.

Which defensive metrics? Us shmoes have UZR and DRS, but I would hope that they have their own internal data that's at least as good.

I dont doubt that the Padres will win more games next year, but I doubt it'll be enough. I think Preller is recklessly pursuing 2015 success at the expense of the rest of the decade. Just because a prospect isnt top 100 overall does not mean he doesnt have value. The odds of him being valuable are lower, but they are non-zero.

Beane's trade for Holliday was similar. And diasastrous.

Right, and I'm sure you've read enough to know that UZR and DRS have their flaws and don't measure lots of factors that contribute to being a good defender.

I'm not saying defensive metrics are worthless - I'm just saying that at this point they are far more flawed than the offensive metrics that we all know and love at this point.

It is a brilliant strategy if a) preller has better metrics and b) said metrics like the players they've acquired more than UZR, etc.

UZR is imperfect, thus i will ignore a player's defense is some flawed-### thinking.

I don't think anyone is ignoring UZR. What I'm suggesting is that if Preller believes the market is artificially devaluing dudes because of what he believes are flaws in current defensive metrics, he's exploiting an inefficiency.

I'm not suggesting advanced metrics are useless, but I think I agree with James that we're at the point of going overboard on WAR. I watched probably 150 Padre games last year, the idea that Seth Smith (3.9 WAR) was more than 3X more valuable than Matt Kemp (1.1 WAR) is asinine.

This. I love stats as much as the next guy, but sometimes you do have to use your eyes.

 

[dparker713]

It is funny to see people obsessing over defensive metrics now, because a decade ago these were likely the same people that said it was moronic to consider defense at all when valuating players.

Yep. It's almost as if Preller realized that folks were going overboard on defensive metrics, so the market inefficiency he's exploiting is big power bats whose overall WAR are significantly deflated by dWAR. If Preller believes that defensive metrics aren't a true, accurate reflection of a player's defensive value, it's a brilliant strategy.

Which defensive metrics? Us shmoes have UZR and DRS, but I would hope that they have their own internal data that's at least as good.

I dont doubt that the Padres will win more games next year, but I doubt it'll be enough. I think Preller is recklessly pursuing 2015 success at the expense of the rest of the decade. Just because a prospect isnt top 100 overall does not mean he doesnt have value. The odds of him being valuable are lower, but they are non-zero.

Beane's trade for Holliday was similar. And diasastrous.

Right, and I'm sure you've read enough to know that UZR and DRS have their flaws and don't measure lots of factors that contribute to being a good defender.

I'm not saying defensive metrics are worthless - I'm just saying that at this point they are far more flawed than the offensive metrics that we all know and love at this point.

It is a brilliant strategy if a) preller has better metrics and b) said metrics like the players they've acquired more than UZR, etc.

UZR is imperfect, thus i will ignore a player's defense is some flawed-### thinking.

I don't think anyone is ignoring UZR. What I'm suggesting is that if Preller believes the market is artificially devaluing dudes because of what he believes are flaws in current defensive metrics, he's exploiting an inefficiency.

I'm not suggesting advanced metrics are useless, but I think I agree with James that we're at the point of going overboard on WAR. I watched probably 150 Padre games last year, the idea that Seth Smith (3.9 WAR) was more than 3X more valuable than Matt Kemp (1.1 WAR) is asinine.

So you can't believe that a guy with 2 arthritic hips was dreadful in OF last year?

 

[dparker713]

It is funny to see people obsessing over defensive metrics now, because a decade ago these were likely the same people that said it was moronic to consider defense at all when valuating players.

Yep. It's almost as if Preller realized that folks were going overboard on defensive metrics, so the market inefficiency he's exploiting is big power bats whose overall WAR are significantly deflated by dWAR. If Preller believes that defensive metrics aren't a true, accurate reflection of a player's defensive value, it's a brilliant strategy.

Which defensive metrics? Us shmoes have UZR and DRS, but I would hope that they have their own internal data that's at least as good.

I dont doubt that the Padres will win more games next year, but I doubt it'll be enough. I think Preller is recklessly pursuing 2015 success at the expense of the rest of the decade. Just because a prospect isnt top 100 overall does not mean he doesnt have value. The odds of him being valuable are lower, but they are non-zero.

Beane's trade for Holliday was similar. And diasastrous.

Right, and I'm sure you've read enough to know that UZR and DRS have their flaws and don't measure lots of factors that contribute to being a good defender.

I'm not saying defensive metrics are worthless - I'm just saying that at this point they are far more flawed than the offensive metrics that we all know and love at this point.

It is a brilliant strategy if a) preller has better metrics and b) said metrics like the players they've acquired more than UZR, etc.

UZR is imperfect, thus i will ignore a player's defense is some flawed-### thinking.

I don't think anyone is ignoring UZR. What I'm suggesting is that if Preller believes the market is artificially devaluing dudes because of what he believes are flaws in current defensive metrics, he's exploiting an inefficiency.

I'm not suggesting advanced metrics are useless, but I think I agree with James that we're at the point of going overboard on WAR. I watched probably 150 Padre games last year, the idea that Seth Smith (3.9 WAR) was more than 3X more valuable than Matt Kemp (1.1 WAR) is asinine.

This. I love stats as much as the next guy, but sometimes you do have to use your eyes.

Defensive stats are complied by people using their eyes to watch every play in every game of the year and they chart every single play.

 

[tommyGunZ]

It is funny to see people obsessing over defensive metrics now, because a decade ago these were likely the same people that said it was moronic to consider defense at all when valuating players.

Yep. It's almost as if Preller realized that folks were going overboard on defensive metrics, so the market inefficiency he's exploiting is big power bats whose overall WAR are significantly deflated by dWAR. If Preller believes that defensive metrics aren't a true, accurate reflection of a player's defensive value, it's a brilliant strategy.

Which defensive metrics? Us shmoes have UZR and DRS, but I would hope that they have their own internal data that's at least as good.

I dont doubt that the Padres will win more games next year, but I doubt it'll be enough. I think Preller is recklessly pursuing 2015 success at the expense of the rest of the decade. Just because a prospect isnt top 100 overall does not mean he doesnt have value. The odds of him being valuable are lower, but they are non-zero.

Beane's trade for Holliday was similar. And diasastrous.

Right, and I'm sure you've read enough to know that UZR and DRS have their flaws and don't measure lots of factors that contribute to being a good defender.

I'm not saying defensive metrics are worthless - I'm just saying that at this point they are far more flawed than the offensive metrics that we all know and love at this point.

It is a brilliant strategy if a) preller has better metrics and b) said metrics like the players they've acquired more than UZR, etc.

UZR is imperfect, thus i will ignore a player's defense is some flawed-### thinking.

I don't think anyone is ignoring UZR. What I'm suggesting is that if Preller believes the market is artificially devaluing dudes because of what he believes are flaws in current defensive metrics, he's exploiting an inefficiency.

I'm not suggesting advanced metrics are useless, but I think I agree with James that we're at the point of going overboard on WAR. I watched probably 150 Padre games last year, the idea that Seth Smith (3.9 WAR) was more than 3X more valuable than Matt Kemp (1.1 WAR) is asinine.

So you can't believe that a guy with 2 arthritic hips was dreadful in OF last year?

Those same arthritic hips that he used to lead all of MLB in OPS after the All Star break?

 

[RnR]

Defensive stats are complied by people using their eyes to watch every play in every game of the year and they chart every single play.

I understand that. My contention is that too much emphasis is being placed on said stats in today's baseball marketplace.

 

[RnR]

Also, I think the recent trend to play such drastic shifts could alter the way things like range will be valued in the future.

 

[Kraft...]

So who's in the Scherzer market now? Yanks say they're out, Tigers say they're out. . . . .??

 

[Captain Hook]

So who's in the Scherzer market now? Yanks say they're out, Tigers say they're out. . . . .??

well there is always the Padres - maybe Preller got the ownership so excited they decide to go toe to toe with the Dodgers

 

[The Flying Elvis]

So who's in the Scherzer market now? Yanks say they're out, Tigers say they're out. . . . .??

I still don't believe the Yankees are truly out. I know all signs are saying they are but would not be surprised at all if they eventually swoop in.

 

[Good Posting Judge]

Anaheim?

I wouldnt rule out any big-payroll team just based on them saying they're out. Could be smoke.

I think the winning bidder for KANG is being announced this afternoon.

 

[shadyridr]

Yanks trading Prado for Eovaldi. I hate that move. I guess they are ready to give Refsnyder the 2nd Base job. Eovaldi is not good.

I've been impressed with him at times. Cautiously optimistic.

very odd guy. Throws hard but doesnt strike batters out

 

[shadyridr]

Also lefties absolutely destroy eovaldi

 

[Limp Ditka]

Also lefties absolutely destroy eovaldi

That should play well in Yankee Stadium

 

[Good Posting Judge]

It is funny to see people obsessing over defensive metrics now, because a decade ago these were likely the same people that said it was moronic to consider defense at all when valuating players.

Yep. It's almost as if Preller realized that folks were going overboard on defensive metrics, so the market inefficiency he's exploiting is big power bats whose overall WAR are significantly deflated by dWAR. If Preller believes that defensive metrics aren't a true, accurate reflection of a player's defensive value, it's a brilliant strategy.

Which defensive metrics? Us shmoes have UZR and DRS, but I would hope that they have their own internal data that's at least as good.

I dont doubt that the Padres will win more games next year, but I doubt it'll be enough. I think Preller is recklessly pursuing 2015 success at the expense of the rest of the decade. Just because a prospect isnt top 100 overall does not mean he doesnt have value. The odds of him being valuable are lower, but they are non-zero.

Beane's trade for Holliday was similar. And diasastrous.

Right, and I'm sure you've read enough to know that UZR and DRS have their flaws and don't measure lots of factors that contribute to being a good defender.

I'm not saying defensive metrics are worthless - I'm just saying that at this point they are far more flawed than the offensive metrics that we all know and love at this point.

It is a brilliant strategy if a) preller has better metrics and b) said metrics like the players they've acquired more than UZR, etc.

UZR is imperfect, thus i will ignore a player's defense is some flawed-### thinking.

I don't think anyone is ignoring UZR. What I'm suggesting is that if Preller believes the market is artificially devaluing dudes because of what he believes are flaws in current defensive metrics, he's exploiting an inefficiency.

I'm not suggesting advanced metrics are useless, but I think I agree with James that we're at the point of going overboard on WAR. I watched probably 150 Padre games last year, the idea that Seth Smith (3.9 WAR) was more than 3X more valuable than Matt Kemp (1.1 WAR) is asinine.

WAR is an estimate of a player's overall value, but a scout can estimate WAR via watching a player play the same way a bunch of advanced metrics can spit out a WAR number.

On Smith v Kemp, their fWAR numbers are closer together. I dont know if its been proven which is better, i tend to look at FG more.

Smith did put up really good numbers for that park last year. 3x might be pushing it, but i dont think 1.5 to 2 war is out if the question for Smith next year...wherever he ends up.

I find fault with Preller for more than just the defense issues that SD will have next year, i think kemp is brutally overpaid. And that they're stripping down a farm system for 1 year of Upton and probably not a lot of Kemp. "Trade for a bunch of power and hope we can contend immediately" is the exact opposite strategy that a team in a pitcher's park and in a division with two big payroll teams should take. If you care about trying to win a WS, if you're just trying to sell season tix, then i guess it works.

 

[tommyGunZ]

tommygunz?

Pretty much.

I can't tell you how it feels for a team that almost had the worst offense in the history of baseball to bring in Kemp, Upton, and Myers in the same week. The only thing worse than bad baseball is boring baseball. So even if this doesn't work out, the Padres won't be boring.

 

[tommyGunZ]

It is funny to see people obsessing over defensive metrics now, because a decade ago these were likely the same people that said it was moronic to consider defense at all when valuating players.

Yep. It's almost as if Preller realized that folks were going overboard on defensive metrics, so the market inefficiency he's exploiting is big power bats whose overall WAR are significantly deflated by dWAR. If Preller believes that defensive metrics aren't a true, accurate reflection of a player's defensive value, it's a brilliant strategy.

Which defensive metrics? Us shmoes have UZR and DRS, but I would hope that they have their own internal data that's at least as good.

I dont doubt that the Padres will win more games next year, but I doubt it'll be enough. I think Preller is recklessly pursuing 2015 success at the expense of the rest of the decade. Just because a prospect isnt top 100 overall does not mean he doesnt have value. The odds of him being valuable are lower, but they are non-zero.

Beane's trade for Holliday was similar. And diasastrous.

Right, and I'm sure you've read enough to know that UZR and DRS have their flaws and don't measure lots of factors that contribute to being a good defender.

I'm not saying defensive metrics are worthless - I'm just saying that at this point they are far more flawed than the offensive metrics that we all know and love at this point.

It is a brilliant strategy if a) preller has better metrics and b) said metrics like the players they've acquired more than UZR, etc.

UZR is imperfect, thus i will ignore a player's defense is some flawed-### thinking.

I don't think anyone is ignoring UZR. What I'm suggesting is that if Preller believes the market is artificially devaluing dudes because of what he believes are flaws in current defensive metrics, he's exploiting an inefficiency.

I'm not suggesting advanced metrics are useless, but I think I agree with James that we're at the point of going overboard on WAR. I watched probably 150 Padre games last year, the idea that Seth Smith (3.9 WAR) was more than 3X more valuable than Matt Kemp (1.1 WAR) is asinine.

WAR is an estimate of a player's overall value, but a scout can estimate WAR via watching a player play the same way a bunch of advanced metrics can spit out a WAR number.

On Smith v Kemp, their fWAR numbers are closer together. I dont know if its been proven which is better, i tend to look at FG more.

Smith did put up really good numbers for that park last year. 3x might be pushing it, but i dont think 1.5 to 2 war is out if the question for Smith next year...wherever he ends up.

I find fault with Preller for more than just the defense issues that SD will have next year, i think kemp is brutally overpaid. And that they're stripping down a farm system for 1 year of Upton and probably not a lot of Kemp. "Trade for a bunch of power and hope we can contend immediately" is the exact opposite strategy that a team in a pitcher's park and in a division with two big payroll teams should take. If you care about trying to win a WS, if you're just trying to sell season tix, then i guess it works.

Wait, you think the Padres had a better chance of winning the World Series prior to adding Kemp, Upton, Myers, Norris, and Middlebrooks?

 

[Michael Brown]

This is the second time it's been mentioned that the pads play in a pitcher's park so it's a bad idea to add offense (rather than putting money into more pitching). Isn't that the complete opposite of what they should do? If a park suppresses offense, then it suppresses both yours and the visiting teams' offense right? So you still need to score runs. I always wondered why this philosophy was considered good. It's not like the Yankees going out and getting a bunch of lefty bats for their short porch or a team with lots of foul territory and deep power alleys adding a flyball pitcher. Those are park advantages. This is saying, it's hard to hit there so getting power bats is pointless. Just go get more pitching.

I would counter with, just about anyone can pitch there so just get some solid arms that will be above average and try to find some sticks to put up crooked numbers, no? Is that just dumb thinking on my part? (It might be, so feel free to call me on it)

 

[Michael Brown]

This is the second time it's been mentioned that the pads play in a pitcher's park so it's a bad idea to add offense (rather than putting money into more pitching). Isn't that the complete opposite of what they should do? If a park suppresses offense, then it suppresses both yours and the visiting teams' offense right? So you still need to score runs. I always wondered why this philosophy was considered good. It's not like the Yankees going out and getting a bunch of lefty bats for their short porch or a team with lots of foul territory and deep power alleys adding a flyball pitcher. Those are park advantages. This is saying, it's hard to hit there so getting power bats is pointless. Just go get more pitching.

I would counter with, just about anyone can pitch there so just get some solid arms that will be above average and try to find some sticks to put up crooked numbers, no? Is that just dumb thinking on my part? (It might be, so feel free to call me on it)

This was my long-winded way of saying, it's all relative. A good team is a good team is a good team. Tweaking your roster to fit the park is a good thing, but focusing all your resources on one aspect of the roster is a good way to make yourself one-dimensional

 

[tommyGunZ]

This is the second time it's been mentioned that the pads play in a pitcher's park so it's a bad idea to add offense (rather than putting money into more pitching). Isn't that the complete opposite of what they should do? If a park suppresses offense, then it suppresses both yours and the visiting teams' offense right? So you still need to score runs. I always wondered why this philosophy was considered good. It's not like the Yankees going out and getting a bunch of lefty bats for their short porch or a team with lots of foul territory and deep power alleys adding a flyball pitcher. Those are park advantages. This is saying, it's hard to hit there so getting power bats is pointless. Just go get more pitching.

I would counter with, just about anyone can pitch there so just get some solid arms that will be above average and try to find some sticks to put up crooked numbers, no? Is that just dumb thinking on my part? (It might be, so feel free to call me on it)

Yeah, the Padres have tried the defense and pitching strategy in Petco for years. Not only has it not worked, but its been unbelievably boring. No one is going to games on a Tuesday night to watch Chris Denorfia hit singles and dive for balls in the gap.

MLB Hot Stove is doing a "Face of the Franchise" bracket right now. Last week, they identified Seth Smith as the face of the franchise. Think about that for a minute.

And people think the Padres are making mistakes trading for franchise guys like Kemp, Myers, and Upton?

 

[RnR]

One thing that can't be refuted is that the Padres will be infinitely more interesting to watch this season. They went from the most boring team in baseball to one of the more intriguing teams literally overnight.

 

[Bojang0301]

I'm shaking my head a lot recently in this thread. As a San Diego local I can say that team was bad. They had close to zero professional sticks. Seth Smith was their only offensive weapon. If the theory is they are in a pitchers park, guess what hasn't changed? The pitching staff. On paper San Diego has been brilliant. They've only lost a couple major prospects but if Myers pans out that's a wash and they still have Hedges and Max Fried. I think the they should retain Cabrera but I haven't heard anything on that front. They arn't done yet though. I expect Middlebrooks deal to be completed and they still have to move some combo of Quentin, Venable and Maybin which I think won't be too hard to accomplish.