*2014-15 Hot Stove Thread: The Padres won it I guess

[Da Gildz]

Zito ERA 3.30, 4.48, 3.86, 3.83

Shields ERA 2.82, 3.52, 3.15, 3.21

Zito was as overrated as Shields is underrated.

Perhaps teams put more emphasis into post-season performance then you think, where Shields has been atrocious his whole career. To just dismiss 60 IP of terrible post season pitching would be negligent

 

[fdas2]

Gilda, why so mad?

41 yrs old and mocking a username on a fantasy forum... Perhaps it's time to reconsider your life goals.

.

Just a thought..

So, you're super angry, but why?

 

[Wrigley]

Giada is hot

 

[Eephus]

Barry Zito's 4 years before signing his contract

FIP 4.05, 4.50, 4.34, 4.89

James Shields 4 years before this contract

FIP 3.42, 3.47, 3.47, 3.59

Zeet's ERA was lower than his FIP in every one of those years which was true of his career as a whole. Some guys are just like that.

I'm also not sure the Giants' front office understood FIP in 2007.

Are you sure they do in 2015?

Sabean's VCR may still be flashing 12:00 but he's been smart enough to hire smart people and listen to them when appropriate. Clubs never reveal their secret sauce but the Giants have been doing some innovative things with video analysis throughout their Major and Minor league organization. Or maybe that's just marketing by their technology partners. 2010, 2012 and 2014 are three self explanatory pieces of data.

For what it's worth, the Zito deal was supposedly an ownership decision more than Sabean's. It's been given as one of the reasons why Peter McGowan was replaced as the face of the ownership group. This could just be a case of the winners getting to write the histories but it's been generally accepted by people who know SF baseball better than me.

 

[Da Gildz]

Gilda, why so mad?

41 yrs old and mocking a username on a fantasy forum... Perhaps it's time to reconsider your life goals.

.

Just a thought..

So, you're super angry, but why?

Man that's super angry to you huh? Sensitive a tad? Ha.

I'm good and happy actually. But yea 40+ yr old dudes name-calling in a fantasy forum is a bit tilting, I wont lie. Really any age I guess...but u get the point. Lets not railroad this thread any more though...cause then i'll get super angry.

 

[the moops]

Zito ERA 3.30, 4.48, 3.86, 3.83

Shields ERA 2.82, 3.52, 3.15, 3.21

Zito was as overrated as Shields is underrated.

Perhaps teams put more emphasis into post-season performance then you think, where Shields has been atrocious his whole career. To just dismiss 60 IP of terrible post season pitching would be negligent

60 innings is certainly a data point, but I would much rather have a guy who puts up good numbers for 4 consecutive regular seasons than a guy who had 60 innings of postseason success over a 7 year window.

 

[shadyridr]

Kinda pissed Yanks arent getting into this Shields talk if he can be had at lower value than expected. Yeah I dont think he gets $20m a year either.

 

[rodg12]

Barry Zito's 4 years before signing his contract

FIP 4.05, 4.50, 4.34, 4.89

James Shields 4 years before this contract

FIP 3.42, 3.47, 3.47, 3.59

Zeet's ERA was lower than his FIP in every one of those years which was true of his career as a whole. Some guys are just like that.

I'm also not sure the Giants' front office understood FIP in 2007.

Are you sure they do in 2015?

Sabean's VCR may still be flashing 12:00 but he's been smart enough to hire smart people and listen to them when appropriate. Clubs never reveal their secret sauce but the Giants have been doing some innovative things with video analysis throughout their Major and Minor league organization. Or maybe that's just marketing by their technology partners. 2010, 2012 and 2014 are three self explanatory pieces of data.

For what it's worth, the Zito deal was supposedly an ownership decision more than Sabean's. It's been given as one of the reasons why Peter McGowan was replaced as the face of the ownership group. This could just be a case of the winners getting to write the histories but it's been generally accepted by people who know SF baseball better than me.

Just messing with you, GB. Tough to argue with 3 titles in five years!

 

[Eephus]

Kinda pissed Yanks arent getting into this Shields talk if he can be had at lower value than expected. Yeah I dont think he gets $20m a year either.

I still think he signs for something in the 5/$90-95M range. There are enough teams that need pitching that somebody will throw in the extra year to seal the deal. It might technically be 4 with a vesting option.

With camps opening soon, Shields and his agent Page Odle might just as well sit back for a while and let the market come to them. Somebody's rotation will look worse in a month than it does today.

 

[RnR]

Zito was also 4 yrs young and had a ridiculous W/L ratio.

This guy just pulled out W/L ratio on your asses. Game over.

 

[pantagrapher]

I'd suspect teams don't put a lot of weight on postseason performance, especially in the age of stats. Small sample size vs. top teams in baseball. That doesn't tell you anything reliable.

 

[Limp Ditka]

Zito was also 4 yrs young and had a ridiculous W/L ratio.

This guy just pulled out W/L ratio on your asses. Game over.

Plus, Zito pitching at that level at age 4 was still so green. Had so much room for improvement. Looking back, I'm surprised the Giants didn't lock him up through his teenage years.

 

[tommyGunZ]

Kinda pissed Yanks arent getting into this Shields talk if he can be had at lower value than expected. Yeah I dont think he gets $20m a year either.

I still think he signs for something in the 5/$90-95M range. There are enough teams that need pitching that somebody will throw in the extra year to seal the deal. It might technically be 4 with a vesting option.

With camps opening soon, Shields and his agent Page Odle might just as well sit back for a while and let the market come to them. Somebody's rotation will look worse in a month than it does today.

Agree with you 98% of the time Eephus, but I don't think Shields gets anywhere near that now. That first number certainly won't start with a 5. He may get 4 from Toronto, but San Diego and Chi are likely only offering 3. And the most dialed in Padre talk radio host here in San Diego just suggested an hour ago that according to his sources, the Padre offer is currently a 2 year offer, albeit for a higher AAV.

If I had to guess, I'd guess 3/$54 here in SD. It will be interesting to see.

 

[Da Gildz]

Zito was also 4 yrs young and had a ridiculous W/L ratio.

This guy just pulled out W/L ratio on your asses. Game over.

I'm done arguing with the saber-nerds. Although at least you add something credible to the convo, unlike this Ditka fool. Its all good. I don't think everything comes down to pure metrics. Yanks have the deepest pockets in baseball AND a clear need for a reliable arm/innings eater, yet they're clearly not enamored with Shields, even at a discounted rate. Why I wonder? Maybe Cashman and the rest of the GM's were watching all those meaningful baseball games in October where Jimmy Shields would shrivel on the mound when it mattered most. I'm sure you'd all prefer Shields career to Andy Pettitte's. Of course, look at FIP! , His groundball rate drastically improved from years blah blah to blah blah....<Face into Palm>

Sigh.

Oh well, have a great weekend all!

-Da Gildz!

 

[Frostillicus]

Nobody would choose James Shields career over Andy Pettitte's.

 

[Da Gildz]

Nobody would choose James Shields career over Andy Pettitte's.

Right because he won more games and was clutch in October.

 

[Notorious T.R.E.]

https://twitter.com/MLB/status/563743950381387776

 

[Notorious T.R.E.]

While the Padres are indeed “among the favorites” for Shields, Heyman reports that “a few other teams, including at least one surprise” are in contact with Shields’ camp. A person connected to the Cubs tells Heyman that Chicago could get involved in Shields’ market if his price falls significantly; the Cubs’ interest in Shields was first reported yesterday.

Love surprise teams.

 

[Eephus]

Kinda pissed Yanks arent getting into this Shields talk if he can be had at lower value than expected. Yeah I dont think he gets $20m a year either.

I still think he signs for something in the 5/$90-95M range. There are enough teams that need pitching that somebody will throw in the extra year to seal the deal. It might technically be 4 with a vesting option.

With camps opening soon, Shields and his agent Page Odle might just as well sit back for a while and let the market come to them. Somebody's rotation will look worse in a month than it does today.

Agree with you 98% of the time Eephus, but I don't think Shields gets anywhere near that now. That first number certainly won't start with a 5. He may get 4 from Toronto, but San Diego and Chi are likely only offering 3. And the most dialed in Padre talk radio host here in San Diego just suggested an hour ago that according to his sources, the Padre offer is currently a 2 year offer, albeit for a higher AAV.

If I had to guess, I'd guess 3/$54 here in SD. It will be interesting to see.

I guess we'll see but if Shields and Odle completely misread the market, I don't see them settling just yet. It only takes one team to make an offer and two teams to start a bidding war.

 

[Eephus]

https://twitter.com/MLB/status/563743950381387776

Bevacqua-esque

ETA: and since this board is in whinedown mode today, here's the classic NSFW Lasorda rant about Kurt Bevacqua

 

[Notorious T.R.E.]

Justin Gilliland™ ‏@J_Gilliland83 5m5 minutes ago

From what I'm hearing is that Padres have signed James Shields but I'm not believing it till I see it from a credible source

 

[Limp Ditka]

I can't wait until Gilda can tell us 'I told you so' about Shields not getting $20m per

 

[Eephus]

I can't wait until Gilda can tell us 'I told you so' about Shields not getting $20m per

I'm hoping for an AAV of $20,000,001

 

[Notorious T.R.E.]

I can't wait until Gilda can tell us 'I told you so' about Shields not getting $20m per

I'm hoping for an AAV of $20,000,001

Hoping for $16M first year, then $22 each subsequent year.

 

[Good Posting Judge]

While the Padres are indeed “among the favorites” for Shields, Heyman reports that “a few other teams, including at least one surprise” are in contact with Shields’ camp. A person connected to the Cubs tells Heyman that Chicago could get involved in Shields’ market if his price falls significantly; the Cubs’ interest in Shields was first reported yesterday.

Love surprise teams.

Hanshin Tigers would be a pretty bad-### surprise team.

 

[Good Posting Judge]

2010, 2012 and 2014 are three self explanatory pieces of data.

They didn't win an inordinate amount of games relative to payroll in any of those years, but you probably already know that.

Maybe Casey McGee has some hidden magic they're going to tap into?

 

[Eephus]

While the Padres are indeed “among the favorites” for Shields, Heyman reports that “a few other teams, including at least one surprise” are in contact with Shields’ camp. A person connected to the Cubs tells Heyman that Chicago could get involved in Shields’ market if his price falls significantly; the Cubs’ interest in Shields was first reported yesterday.

Love surprise teams.

Hanshin Tigers would be a pretty bad-### surprise team.

Defecting to the Cuban League would be hard to top

 

[Eephus]

2010, 2012 and 2014 are three self explanatory pieces of data.

They didn't win an inordinate amount of games relative to payroll in any of those years, but you probably already know that.

Maybe Casey McGee has some hidden magic they're going to tap into?

#gobbler

 

[Long Ball Larry]

Zito was also 4 yrs young and had a ridiculous W/L ratio.

This guy just pulled out W/L ratio on your asses. Game over.

I'm done arguing with the saber-nerds. Although at least you add something credible to the convo, unlike this Ditka fool. Its all good. I don't think everything comes down to pure metrics. Yanks have the deepest pockets in baseball AND a clear need for a reliable arm/innings eater, yet they're clearly not enamored with Shields, even at a discounted rate. Why I wonder? Maybe Cashman and the rest of the GM's were watching all those meaningful baseball games in October where Jimmy Shields would shrivel on the mound when it mattered most. I'm sure you'd all prefer Shields career to Andy Pettitte's. Of course, look at FIP! , His groundball rate drastically improved from years blah blah to blah blah....<Face into Palm>

Sigh.

Oh well, have a great weekend all!

-Da Gildz!

U 2 GILDZ!

 

[Daywalker]

Wouldn't mind seeing the Mets make a move on Shields then deal a young-gun for a potential young impact position player.

 

[RnR]

Aaron Gleeman ‏@AaronGleeman 2m2 minutes ago
James Shields' ranks among all starters, 2011-2014: Innings: 1st ERA: 15th xFIP: 17th K/BB: 19th OAVG: 19th WPA: 11th Clear No. 1 starter.

 

[dparker713]

Huh?

BARRY ZITO RECIEVED A CONTRACT FOR $18M/YEAR IN 2007. THAT WAS THE BIGGEST CONTRACT FOR A SP TO DATE.

18 MILLION. 18. ONE....EIGHT....MILLION. NOT 17...NOT 19....NOT 20....THAT CAME LATER

HOPING CAPS MAKE THIS EASIER FOR YOU.

For a pro-rated basis Clemens signed for 28M for 1 year in 2007.

 

[dparker713]

Nobody would choose James Shields career over Andy Pettitte's.

Shouldn't anyone anti-PEDs choose Shields over Pettite?

 

[dparker713]

Wouldn't mind seeing the Mets make a move on Shields then deal a young-gun for a potential young impact position player.

The Mets are broke.

 

[the moops]

Aaron Gleeman ‏@AaronGleeman 2m2 minutes ago

James Shields' ranks among all starters, 2011-2014: Innings: 1st ERA: 15th xFIP: 17th K/BB: 19th OAVG: 19th WPA: 11th Clear No. 1 starter.

all starters in playoffs during that time friend? Shields must be like 13,000th or so. not worth even 6 mill a year.

 

[Eephus]

Aaron Gleeman ‏@AaronGleeman 2m2 minutes ago

James Shields' ranks among all starters, 2011-2014: Innings: 1st ERA: 15th xFIP: 17th K/BB: 19th OAVG: 19th WPA: 11th Clear No. 1 starter.

Gleeman is a Twins fan

 

[RnR]

Aaron Gleeman ‏@AaronGleeman 2m2 minutes ago

James Shields' ranks among all starters, 2011-2014: Innings: 1st ERA: 15th xFIP: 17th K/BB: 19th OAVG: 19th WPA: 11th Clear No. 1 starter.

Gleeman is a Twins fan

Glad to see someone sticking with them through thick and thin.

 

[Frostillicus]

Aaron Gleeman ‏@AaronGleeman 2m2 minutes ago

James Shields' ranks among all starters, 2011-2014: Innings: 1st ERA: 15th xFIP: 17th K/BB: 19th OAVG: 19th WPA: 11th Clear No. 1 starter.

Gleeman is a Twins fan

He's the worst.

 

[Eephus]

Aaron Gleeman ‏@AaronGleeman 2m2 minutes ago

James Shields' ranks among all starters, 2011-2014: Innings: 1st ERA: 15th xFIP: 17th K/BB: 19th OAVG: 19th WPA: 11th Clear No. 1 starter.

Gleeman is a Twins fan

He's the worst.

#gobbler blogger

 

[Frostillicus]

Aaron Gleeman ‏@AaronGleeman 2m2 minutes ago

James Shields' ranks among all starters, 2011-2014: Innings: 1st ERA: 15th xFIP: 17th K/BB: 19th OAVG: 19th WPA: 11th Clear No. 1 starter.

Gleeman is a Twins fan

He's the worst.

#gobbler blogger

TRE loves him.

 

[tommyGunZ]

Standing by my 3/54 though others are speculating it'll end up 4/72

 

[RnR]

Aaron Gleeman ‏@AaronGleeman 2m2 minutes ago

James Shields' ranks among all starters, 2011-2014: Innings: 1st ERA: 15th xFIP: 17th K/BB: 19th OAVG: 19th WPA: 11th Clear No. 1 starter.

Gleeman is a Twins fan

He's the worst.

I actually agree with this assessment, but I couldn't resist... GILDA!

 

[Limp Ditka]

omg omg omg

James Shields - S - Royals

Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports reports that "it would be a big upset" if James Shields doesn't sign with the Padres.

Passan adds that "multiple general managers who have inquired on Shields believe he ends up in San Diego." The Cubs have been seen as a potential dark horse to swoop in and land the righty, but Bruce Levine of 670thescore.com says they're "still a long shot." Shields is expected to make a decision on Sunday or Monday, and all signs are pointing to him picking the Padres. Those in the industry have speculated to Passan that Shields is likely to get a four-year deal in the $72-75 million range.

Related: Cubs, Padres

Source: Jeff Passan on TwitterFeb 8 - 12:38 PM

The guy's going to get sooooo gunzed

 

[Notorious T.R.E.]

Aaron Gleeman ‏@AaronGleeman 2m2 minutes ago

James Shields' ranks among all starters, 2011-2014: Innings: 1st ERA: 15th xFIP: 17th K/BB: 19th OAVG: 19th WPA: 11th Clear No. 1 starter.

Gleeman is a Twins fan

He's the worst.

#gobbler blogger

TRE loves him.

Actually, I think you cried a little when I first told you I don't care for him.

 

[Frostillicus]

Aaron Gleeman ‏@AaronGleeman 2m2 minutes ago

James Shields' ranks among all starters, 2011-2014: Innings: 1st ERA: 15th xFIP: 17th K/BB: 19th OAVG: 19th WPA: 11th Clear No. 1 starter.

Gleeman is a Twins fan

He's the worst.

#gobbler blogger

TRE loves him.

Actually, I think you cried a little when I first told you I don't care for him.

I did. I was dumb back then. He did whatever the opposite of won me over is.

 

[Notorious T.R.E.]

Aaron Gleeman ‏@AaronGleeman 2m2 minutes ago

James Shields' ranks among all starters, 2011-2014: Innings: 1st ERA: 15th xFIP: 17th K/BB: 19th OAVG: 19th WPA: 11th Clear No. 1 starter.

Gleeman is a Twins fan

He's the worst.

#gobbler blogger

TRE loves him.

Actually, I think you cried a little when I first told you I don't care for him.

I did. I was dumb back then. He did whatever the opposite of won me over is.

 

[shadyridr]

So Chipper Jones seems like an intelligent guy

 

[Eephus]

So Chipper Jones seems like an intelligent guy

There has never been a Nobel Prize winner named Chipper

 

[Good Posting Judge]

Aaron Gleeman ‏@AaronGleeman 2m2 minutes ago

James Shields' ranks among all starters, 2011-2014: Innings: 1st ERA: 15th xFIP: 17th K/BB: 19th OAVG: 19th WPA: 11th Clear No. 1 starter.

Gleeman is a Twins fan

He's the worst.

#gobbler blogger

TRE loves him.

Actually, I think you cried a little when I first told you I don't care for him.

I did. I was dumb back then. He did whatever the opposite of won me over is.

Lose you over?

 

[Michael Brown]

Aaron Gleeman ‏@AaronGleeman 2m2 minutes ago

James Shields' ranks among all starters, 2011-2014: Innings: 1st ERA: 15th xFIP: 17th K/BB: 19th OAVG: 19th WPA: 11th Clear No. 1 starter.

Gleeman is a Twins fan

He's the worst.

#gobbler blogger

TRE loves him.

Actually, I think you cried a little when I first told you I don't care for him.

I did. I was dumb back then. He did whatever the opposite of won me over is.

Lose you over?

Nah, that makes no sense. He won him under.