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*2014-15 Hot Stove Thread: The Padres won it I guess (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Eephus
- Start date
Long Ball Larry
Footballguy
actually kind of sad about this. Obviously he's not great, just always seemed like he would be a Phillie for life.
Eephus
Footballguy
RnR
Footballguy
You mean the same guy that spent the better part of a decade wrecking his body with drug addiction? Can't imagine why it would start breaking down on him in his 30s...
Hilts
Footballguy
In fairness, I think he was told he could try to recover without surgery and this is a recent re-occurrence. Plus he's crazy.
dparker713
Footballguy
He never had a clue on the strike zone. He was just so insanely talented that he could hit pitches anywhere. Once that talent slips just a little, his performance was going to fall off a cliff.
jfranco77
Footballguy
I like getting Eovaldi, even though he'll give up plenty of HRs to lefties in Yankee Stadium. But Prado was the only legit #2 hitter they had. Honestly if it was me, I'd probably go Ellsbury, Headley, Gardner, McCann, Teix, Jones/Arod platoon, Beltran, Drew and Didi. I am really skeptical that A-Rod has anything left but it would be nice if he did. The only other guys to break up the lefties don't belong in the top 3 (Beltran and Teix).
Beltran did get his bone chips fixed, right?
Frostillicus
Footballguy
Limp Ditka
Footballguy
Limp Ditka
Footballguy
Michael Brown
Footballguy
Eephus
Footballguy
shadyridr
Footballguy
lol maybe im in lala land. It wouldnt shock me is all im saying. But i do agree i doubt he plays even close to a full season.
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shadyridr
Footballguy
they have room at dh and if/when tex gets hurt it seems they wanna try him at 1b
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
46 wins.
pantagrapher
Footballguy
above replacement for ARod?Good Posting Judge said:
Wrigley
Footballguy
pantagrapher
Footballguy
tommyGunZ
Footballguy
I'll be shocked if Shields or Hamels isn't a Padre before opening day. Payroll is currently at 89M, amazingly it's ~ 1M less than last year's opening payroll, thanks in large part to the Dodgers paying 18M of Kemp's 21M salary this year. Ownership has hinted that payroll should/could be upped to the $100M-$110M range, so the feeling in SD is that there is still room for a big SP upgrade. Shields and Hamels are both native San Diegans.
Rumor circulating that the Phils and Pads are looking at Cashner, Hedges, & Liriano for Hamels + 30M. Cashner makes $4M, so if the Phillies include 30 large it would essentially mean Hamels is a $15M per year guy, putting the Padres right at $100M. Shields at something like 3/54M would add $17M, but since the Pads would lose their 1st rounder (and the $3M bonus they'd have to pay that pick), Shields would really only be $14M out of pocket for 2015, putting the Padres at ~ 114M.
Go get'em both AJ!
Rumor circulating that the Phils and Pads are looking at Cashner, Hedges, & Liriano for Hamels + 30M. Cashner makes $4M, so if the Phillies include 30 large it would essentially mean Hamels is a $15M per year guy, putting the Padres right at $100M. Shields at something like 3/54M would add $17M, but since the Pads would lose their 1st rounder (and the $3M bonus they'd have to pay that pick), Shields would really only be $14M out of pocket for 2015, putting the Padres at ~ 114M.
Go get'em both AJ!
Notorious T.R.E.
Showdown!™ Administrator
Gunz Abeing it up.
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
the moops
Footballguy
4.5, 3.9, 4.5, 3.7
WAR last 4 years
249, 227, 228, 227
IP last 4 years
Dude is consistent and good
Eephus
Footballguy
The ability to take the ball every 5th day and pitch into the 7th can't be overshadowed by a couple of shaky playoff starts.4.5, 3.9, 4.5, 3.7WAR last 4 years
249, 227, 228, 227
IP last 4 years
Dude is consistent and good
I don't question the $20M AAV. There are lesser pitchers who earn more than that. I think the hold up is around the number of years but a deal will get done and he'll be pitching for somebody in April
I don't think he's a bad pitcher, but he's no ace. And 20 mill/yr is ace $. Give me the guy who was given a 20 mill/yr contract who wasn't 'ACE-worthy' at the time the contract was given....I cant find one. Sheilds has a career 3.72 ERA/ 1.22 WHIP with zero postseason success. Those #'s are more of a #3 type SP Yes, he pitches innings and that alone is valuable. But 80 million over 4 yrs for a 33 yr old James Shields is shockingly bad.4.5, 3.9, 4.5, 3.7
WAR last 4 years
249, 227, 228, 227
IP last 4 years
Dude is consistent and good
I myself wouldn't go above 12-14 per/
RnR
Footballguy
Off the top of my head: Mark Buehrle, C.J. Wilson
But that's not the same thing as assessing the current market value of an ace. Show me an ace that has signed for 20 mil in the last few seasons. Kershaw, Lester, Scherzer,etc are pulling over 25 mil.
There are 10 guys making 20 mill/yr in 2015:
Kershaw - 32.5
Verlander - 28
Lee - 25
Greinke - 25
Felix - 24.8
Hamels - 23.5
Sabathia - 23
Tanaka - 22
Cain - 20.8
Lester -20
Cain would be the outlier here but even then, when he signed the deal, he was still far better then Shields is now...
Kershaw - 32.5
Verlander - 28
Lee - 25
Greinke - 25
Felix - 24.8
Hamels - 23.5
Sabathia - 23
Tanaka - 22
Cain - 20.8
Lester -20
Cain would be the outlier here but even then, when he signed the deal, he was still far better then Shields is now...
Eephus
Footballguy
Remember, you're dealing with an inflationary market. $20M isn't the same as it was just a few years ago. I'd equate Shields with guys like Burnett, Peavy and Lackey who were getting $16-18M when they signed their deals.
It pains me to say it but I think Matt Cain is the clearest case of a non-ace pitcher with a current AAV over $20M. But Cain is/was very similar to Shields in that a lot of their value is/was from consistency, durability and keeping the team in the game.
Well Cain did have 3 years with a sub-3 ERA prior to signing that deal no? They are probably similar but Cain at his best was still better then Shields at his best. They're close though. I don't know, maybe 4/80 isn't that crazy. I just equate 20+ to ACE level/elite SP and I don't view Shields in that light..
Eephus
Footballguy
Cain and Shields had pretty comparable ERA+ numbers. Not that Cain is a very good poster boy for long term pitcher contracts.
Notorious T.R.E.
Showdown!™ Administrator
You see, as time moves forward, the player contracts get bigger...
Eephus
Footballguy
Brady Marino
Footballguy
Ole Hoss Radbourn charged a dime because he did the work of two pitchers.
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dparker713
Footballguy
No, no its not. Depending on if/how much you discount Scherzer's deferred money, he's making anywhere from $25-28 million per year. Lester signed for nearly $26 million per year. Verlander nearly the same as Lester. And none of them really come close to Kershaw at over $30 million per year.I don't think he's a bad pitcher, but he's no ace. And 20 mill/yr is ace $. Give me the guy who was given a 20 mill/yr contract who wasn't 'ACE-worthy' at the time the contract was given....I cant find one. Sheilds has a career 3.72 ERA/ 1.22 WHIP with zero postseason success. Those #'s are more of a #3 type SP Yes, he pitches innings and that alone is valuable. But 80 million over 4 yrs for a 33 yr old James Shields is shockingly bad.4.5, 3.9, 4.5, 3.7
WAR last 4 years
249, 227, 228, 227
IP last 4 years
Dude is consistent and good
I myself wouldn't go above 12-14 per/
Baseball revenues have skyrocketed. They're somewhere north of 9 billion. In salary cap leagues revenues generally get split about 50/50. If that were the case in baseball the average team payroll would be about 150M. Considering only 7 teams spent more than that number on payroll last season, it would appear the teams could afford significantly higher player salaries and still remain profitable.
tommyGunZ
Footballguy
Grahamburn
Footballguy
Thanks smart ### Now go and look at the guys getting 20 mill per TODAY, in 2015, ...in the present!
Its not a long list. Shields is a #2 SP. He won't get 20 mill/yr. mark it.
ETA: Please don't circumvent the language filter
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Notorious T.R.E.
Showdown!™ Administrator
Ooh, semantics!
No it's just stating facts. Besides I listed Lester regardless. Now go back down to the basement
