*2014-15 Hot Stove Thread: The Padres won it I guess (5 Viewers)

[tommyGunZ]

Tommy - good for you my friend. glad to see Padres doing something exciting.

@JeffPassan: The Padres are taking over the world: Sources say San Diego is working out Yoan Moncada today and plans to be aggressive in bidding for him.

Last June the Padres hit .171 for the month, as a team. The best offensive players last year were Seth Smith and Rene Rivera. Fans here are on life support, and needed a life preserver.

Dave Cameron is the poster child for not being able to see the big picture. I'm having a hard time buying his narrative that the Padres would have been better off waiting on Max Fried, Trea Turner, etc. Guy is brilliant with an excel spreadsheet, but putting together a competitive, entertaining baseball team is a lot bigger than simply maximizing WAR in January.

I get what you're saying about the big picture. And I think Cameron's skepticism is informed byhis site's projections, and maybe they're too pessimistic. It's certainly possible. But ultimately, and I think you would agree, Preller's going to be judged on how well SD actually does, in terms of wins/losses and making the playoffs. This coming October, both Fangraphs (or BP, or whomever) projections will be worthless, but so will the public relations wins that the Padres have stacked up.

That said, 2015 seems to be a bit of a mini-window that's upon SD already. Upton is a FA this year. SD is going to have to start paying Kemp real money after this year, which unless SD has a limitless pool of money, is going to impact who they can bring in next off-season. They have good prospects, but they've also traded away quite a few, which is also going to limit their ability to either make trades or get actual help from those players being good.

I guess, worst-case, SD will have a different type of mediocre team to root for. That's something.

Pretty much. And if Kemp gets hurt, Shields arm falls off, and Myers is a bust instead of the stud he looked like in 2013, it will get ugly fast. There is certainly risk involved, but I would argue that every team has big risks. And none of these contracts have the potential to be Pujols, Prince, Hamilton, Verlander, etc.

Upton and Kennedy walk after '15, but the hope is that Renfroe and Wisler take their spots and shine in '16. Another 20M is off the books next year in what is essentially wasted salary (Quentin, Leubke, Venable). Benoit's 8M is up as well, and the Pads should have at least 2 cheap arms ready to take over the closer role for dirt cheap.

Preller will have $35M to spend next offseason, and only a few holes to fill. These contracts haven't tied the Padre cap up at all.

 

[RnR]

If Preller can make these happen, then the off-season has to be considered a win no matter what the spreadsheets say.

 

[tommyGunZ]

If Preller can make these happen, then the off-season has to be considered a win no matter what the spreadsheets say.

BRING BACK THE BROWN!!!!!

 

[Good Posting Judge]

Tommy - good for you my friend. glad to see Padres doing something exciting.

@JeffPassan: The Padres are taking over the world: Sources say San Diego is working out Yoan Moncada today and plans to be aggressive in bidding for him.

Last June the Padres hit .171 for the month, as a team. The best offensive players last year were Seth Smith and Rene Rivera. Fans here are on life support, and needed a life preserver.

Dave Cameron is the poster child for not being able to see the big picture. I'm having a hard time buying his narrative that the Padres would have been better off waiting on Max Fried, Trea Turner, etc. Guy is brilliant with an excel spreadsheet, but putting together a competitive, entertaining baseball team is a lot bigger than simply maximizing WAR in January.

I get what you're saying about the big picture. And I think Cameron's skepticism is informed byhis site's projections, and maybe they're too pessimistic. It's certainly possible. But ultimately, and I think you would agree, Preller's going to be judged on how well SD actually does, in terms of wins/losses and making the playoffs. This coming October, both Fangraphs (or BP, or whomever) projections will be worthless, but so will the public relations wins that the Padres have stacked up.

That said, 2015 seems to be a bit of a mini-window that's upon SD already. Upton is a FA this year. SD is going to have to start paying Kemp real money after this year, which unless SD has a limitless pool of money, is going to impact who they can bring in next off-season. They have good prospects, but they've also traded away quite a few, which is also going to limit their ability to either make trades or get actual help from those players being good.

I guess, worst-case, SD will have a different type of mediocre team to root for. That's something.

Pretty much. And if Kemp gets hurt, Shields arm falls off, and Myers is a bust instead of the stud he looked like in 2013, it will get ugly fast. There is certainly risk involved, but I would argue that every team has big risks. And none of these contracts have the potential to be Pujols, Prince, Hamilton, Verlander, etc.

Upton and Kennedy walk after '15, but the hope is that Renfroe and Wisler take their spots and shine in '16. Another 20M is off the books next year in what is essentially wasted salary (Quentin, Leubke, Venable). Benoit's 8M is up as well, and the Pads should have at least 2 cheap arms ready to take over the closer role for dirt cheap.

Preller will have $35M to spend next offseason, and only a few holes to fill. These contracts haven't tied the Padre cap up at all.

Every team has a Renfroe and a Wisler, who, best-case scenario, pick up right where a more highly-paid, established big leaguer left off. Doesn't always happen that way, though. Kennedy and Upton would be, what, 6 wins walking out the door? 7 maybe? I'm just saying that if SD makes a step forward this year, there's no guarantee that they keep going forward the year after.

I think the Dodgers are still going to cruise to the pennant, but 2nd place/a wild card is nowhere near out of the question. 77 wins last year could be a lot worse! And the East doesn't really have any viable WC threats, it's probably going to be a battle royale for SD with two of the Cards/Pirates/Cubs, and the Giants.

Beats being the Royals right now. Yikes.

 

[tommyGunZ]

Tommy - good for you my friend. glad to see Padres doing something exciting.

@JeffPassan: The Padres are taking over the world: Sources say San Diego is working out Yoan Moncada today and plans to be aggressive in bidding for him.

Last June the Padres hit .171 for the month, as a team. The best offensive players last year were Seth Smith and Rene Rivera. Fans here are on life support, and needed a life preserver.

Dave Cameron is the poster child for not being able to see the big picture. I'm having a hard time buying his narrative that the Padres would have been better off waiting on Max Fried, Trea Turner, etc. Guy is brilliant with an excel spreadsheet, but putting together a competitive, entertaining baseball team is a lot bigger than simply maximizing WAR in January.

I get what you're saying about the big picture. And I think Cameron's skepticism is informed byhis site's projections, and maybe they're too pessimistic. It's certainly possible. But ultimately, and I think you would agree, Preller's going to be judged on how well SD actually does, in terms of wins/losses and making the playoffs. This coming October, both Fangraphs (or BP, or whomever) projections will be worthless, but so will the public relations wins that the Padres have stacked up.

That said, 2015 seems to be a bit of a mini-window that's upon SD already. Upton is a FA this year. SD is going to have to start paying Kemp real money after this year, which unless SD has a limitless pool of money, is going to impact who they can bring in next off-season. They have good prospects, but they've also traded away quite a few, which is also going to limit their ability to either make trades or get actual help from those players being good.

I guess, worst-case, SD will have a different type of mediocre team to root for. That's something.

Pretty much. And if Kemp gets hurt, Shields arm falls off, and Myers is a bust instead of the stud he looked like in 2013, it will get ugly fast. There is certainly risk involved, but I would argue that every team has big risks. And none of these contracts have the potential to be Pujols, Prince, Hamilton, Verlander, etc.

Upton and Kennedy walk after '15, but the hope is that Renfroe and Wisler take their spots and shine in '16. Another 20M is off the books next year in what is essentially wasted salary (Quentin, Leubke, Venable). Benoit's 8M is up as well, and the Pads should have at least 2 cheap arms ready to take over the closer role for dirt cheap.

Preller will have $35M to spend next offseason, and only a few holes to fill. These contracts haven't tied the Padre cap up at all.

Every team has a Renfroe and a Wisler, who, best-case scenario, pick up right where a more highly-paid, established big leaguer left off. Doesn't always happen that way, though. Kennedy and Upton would be, what, 6 wins walking out the door? 7 maybe? I'm just saying that if SD makes a step forward this year, there's no guarantee that they keep going forward the year after.

I think the Dodgers are still going to cruise to the pennant, but 2nd place/a wild card is nowhere near out of the question. 77 wins last year could be a lot worse! And the East doesn't really have any viable WC threats, it's probably going to be a battle royale for SD with two of the Cards/Pirates/Cubs, and the Giants.

Beats being the Royals right now. Yikes.

Exactly! Which is why I'm 100% on board with Preller's approach of dealing much of the quantity in the Padre farm system for several established, yet under control major league talents (Kemp 5 yrs, Myers 4, Norris 4, etc). Only Upton was truly a "go for it NOW" short term move, and of course the Pads will get a 1st rounder in compensation when he walks. And best of all, Preller kept the Padres top 3 minor league talents (Wisler, Hedges, Renfroe).

While it may seem that Preller sold the entire farm system in order to bring in a bunch of old dudes, he really hasn't. The only regular over 30 is Kemp, who is 31 and coming of an MVP-caliber 2nd half. He bought low on Kemp, sold high on Rivera, and sold a bunch of coin flips (Turner, Fried, Eflin, Alvarez, etc). Perhaps the only real, legit big league talent he moved was Grandal. I think Grandal rakes this year and comes of age, so that is a legit loss. And I think Joe Ross will eventually be a solid #3 starter, maybe 3 years from now.

I think people are overestimating the minor league talent the Padres shipped away, and underestimating the opportunistic "buys" of some of these dudes. SHields when the market was empty for a discount. Kemp for a young catcher who wasn't in the Padre future and at a 25% contractual discount. Upton when the Braves didn't have much leverage left. Norris when the A's were seemingly down on him after his postseason disaster.

So yeah, I'm pumped. I think anyone who has been through the last decade of Padre baseball would be. But I certainly don't think anything is a given, as we've seen off season winners routinely underachieve. So I'm with some of you guys on that; those crowning the Padres NL West champs today are crazy.

ETA: I guess you could say Jesse Hahn was a legit big league talent, and I enjoyed his starts last year, but there are still a lot of question marks as to whether his stuff and his frame will hold up when he gets stretched out. There's a reason Tampa was willing to include him as a throw in in the Logan Forsythe deal.

 

[Daywalker]

I'll wait for the numbers to prove me wrong but Shields reminds me of the Lackey signing by Boston. Lackey had atrocious numbers in Boston before signing. Yes, his contract looked like a disaster at first. But when he got healthy he was very productive for Boston. He figured it out.

Shields is healthy for all we know. All these guys are a risk. You are either dinged for having TJ or for not having it yet.

I just don't understand throwing money at Panda and Hanley then blinking at 4/80 for Shields when you are desperate for starting pitching.

 

[the moops]

Luxury tax is the reason. They will not be repeat offenders. And also probably the fact that everyone assumed Shields was going to sign for 5/100 and not what he did sign for with San Diego

 

[E-Z Glider]

Moncada to Yanks a foregone conclusion?

 

[jfranco77]

Moncada to Yanks a foregone conclusion?

I don't think so. Dodgers want him, and of course AJ "I have all the money" Preller is looming.

 

[Notorious T.R.E.]

Moncada to Yanks a foregone conclusion?

I don't think so. Dodgers want him, and of course AJ "I have all the money" Preller is looming.

Teams that have held private workouts for Moncada include the Yankees, Dodgers, Red Sox, Brewers, Braves, Rays, Padres, Giants and Tigers.

 

[Good Posting Judge]

How come all Cubans are 2B?

 

[Bogart]

How come all Cubans are 2B?

Defensive shifts are illegal in Cuba. It's how they work around it.

 

[jfranco77]

How come all Cubans are 2B?

Not athletic enough for the US, I guess? Or not enough fast-twitch muscles? Not sure.

 

[RnR]

How come all Cubans are 2B?

Not athletic enough for the US, I guess? Or not enough fast-twitch muscles? Not sure.

Among active Cuban defectors, Yunel Escobar (Rays), Adeiny Hechavarria (Marlins), Jose Iglesias (Tigers), and Alexei Ramirez (White Sox) were all slated as starting shortstops last season.

There are no Cuban defectors that were starting second basemen last season.

 

[Northern Voice]

I just spent a week in Cuba. The beer garden on our resort had the Caribbean series tournament games on every afternoon/evening. On Sunday when the final vs. Mexico was on, people from all over the resort were stopping there to watch an inning or two, the Cubans were really into it, and so I got into it hoping for a Cuban win.

It was real nice to be able to sit in the sun, drink beer and watch meaningful (to some people) baseball in mid-February. Now I'm home and my dog won't go in the backyard because there's two feet of snow. At least I'm that nice, rich, deep shade of ginger, for the time being.

 

[shadyridr]

How come all Cubans are 2B?

Not athletic enough for the US, I guess? Or not enough fast-twitch muscles? Not sure.

Among active Cuban defectors, Yunel Escobar (Rays), Adeiny Hechavarria (Marlins), Jose Iglesias (Tigers), and Alexei Ramirez (White Sox) were all slated as starting shortstops last season.

There are no Cuban defectors that were starting second basemen last season.

what about cespedes, puig, and abreu?

 

[Notorious T.R.E.]

YOU CAN ALREADY SIGN UP FOR MLBTV! WHEEEEEEEEEEEEE

 

[the moops]

How come all Cubans are 2B?

Not athletic enough for the US, I guess? Or not enough fast-twitch muscles? Not sure.

Among active Cuban defectors, Yunel Escobar (Rays), Adeiny Hechavarria (Marlins), Jose Iglesias (Tigers), and Alexei Ramirez (White Sox) were all slated as starting shortstops last season.

There are no Cuban defectors that were starting second basemen last season.

what about cespedes, puig, and abreu?

What the?

 

[RnR]

How come all Cubans are 2B?

Not athletic enough for the US, I guess? Or not enough fast-twitch muscles? Not sure.

Among active Cuban defectors, Yunel Escobar (Rays), Adeiny Hechavarria (Marlins), Jose Iglesias (Tigers), and Alexei Ramirez (White Sox) were all slated as starting shortstops last season.

There are no Cuban defectors that were starting second basemen last season.

what about cespedes, puig, and abreu?

OF, OF, 1B

 

[Brady Marino]

How come all Cubans are 2B?

Not athletic enough for the US, I guess? Or not enough fast-twitch muscles? Not sure.

Among active Cuban defectors, Yunel Escobar (Rays), Adeiny Hechavarria (Marlins), Jose Iglesias (Tigers), and Alexei Ramirez (White Sox) were all slated as starting shortstops last season.

There are no Cuban defectors that were starting second basemen last season.

Alex Guerrero was the best shot at being one. Not sure he gets another chance for a while.

 

[Eephus]

How come all Cubans are 2B?

Not athletic enough for the US, I guess? Or not enough fast-twitch muscles? Not sure.

Among active Cuban defectors, Yunel Escobar (Rays), Adeiny Hechavarria (Marlins), Jose Iglesias (Tigers), and Alexei Ramirez (White Sox) were all slated as starting shortstops last season.

There are no Cuban defectors that were starting second basemen last season.

Alex Guerrero was the best shot at being one. Not sure he gets another chance for a while.

He's about a half an ear away from the majors

 

[shadyridr]

How come all Cubans are 2B?

Not athletic enough for the US, I guess? Or not enough fast-twitch muscles? Not sure.

Among active Cuban defectors, Yunel Escobar (Rays), Adeiny Hechavarria (Marlins), Jose Iglesias (Tigers), and Alexei Ramirez (White Sox) were all slated as starting shortstops last season.

There are no Cuban defectors that were starting second basemen last season.

what about cespedes, puig, and abreu?

What the?

he said ALL

 

[Limp Ditka]

How come all Cubans are 2B?

Not athletic enough for the US, I guess? Or not enough fast-twitch muscles? Not sure.

Among active Cuban defectors, Yunel Escobar (Rays), Adeiny Hechavarria (Marlins), Jose Iglesias (Tigers), and Alexei Ramirez (White Sox) were all slated as starting shortstops last season.

There are no Cuban defectors that were starting second basemen last season.

what about cespedes, puig, and abreu?

What the?

he said ALL

http://fc06.deviantart.net/fs71/f/2012/028/d/0/me_fail_english_demotivator_by_purplephoneixstar-d4nw89m.jpg

 

[Limp Ditka]

It's not like he just skimmed through that sentence, like it was a corridor in the Hall Of Fame, he even ran back through that same corridor to see what he missed

 

[shadyridr]

It's not like he just skimmed through that sentence, like it was a corridor in the Hall Of Fame, he even ran back through that same corridor to see what he missed

you realize I was making a joke, right?

 

[Limp Ditka]

It's not like he just skimmed through that sentence, like it was a corridor in the Hall Of Fame, he even ran back through that same corridor to see what he missed

you realize I was making a joke, right?

You realize you're bad at making jokes, right?

 

[Chemical X]

YOU CAN ALREADY SIGN UP FOR MLBTV! WHEEEEEEEEEEEEE

free with dtv again?

 

[Good Posting Judge]

Jesus Christ.

eta: 2B

 

[Da Gildz]

It's not like he just skimmed through that sentence, like it was a corridor in the Hall Of Fame, he even ran back through that same corridor to see what he missed

you realize I was making a joke, right?

You realize you're bad at making jokes, right?

Is there any way a mod can add another emoticon, like 1 of those dopey faces holding a sign reading "Hey I'm Limp Ditka, the biggest d-bag in this forum, but I'm hoping my overused sarcasm and mindless kindergarten humor amuses you because I'm lonely, oh so lonely."

Thx!

 

[the moops]

Gilda - there are like 4 people in this forum that aren't d-bags. Get used to it. We take our baseball serious

 

[Notorious T.R.E.]

It's not like he just skimmed through that sentence, like it was a corridor in the Hall Of Fame, he even ran back through that same corridor to see what he missed

you realize I was making a joke, right?

You realize you're bad at making jokes, right?

Is there any way a mod can add another emoticon, like 1 of those dopey faces holding a sign reading "Hey I'm Limp Ditka, the biggest d-bag in this forum, but I'm hoping my overused sarcasm and mindless kindergarten humor amuses you because I'm lonely, oh so lonely."

Thx!

Let's keep it to sports, thanks.

 

[Da Gildz]

Gilda - there are like 4 people in this forum that aren't d-bags. Get used to it. We take our baseball serious

Haha I get that. But does this character even post about baseball, all I see is him trolling other posters with zero 'baseball-related' contribution.

 

[Brady Marino]

Gilda - there are like 4 people in this forum that aren't d-bags. Get used to it. We take our baseball serious

Haha I get that. But does this character even post about baseball, all I see is him trolling other posters with zero 'baseball-related' contribution.

You're really getting on someone else for not contributing to baseball discussion here?

 

[Frostillicus]

It's not like he just skimmed through that sentence, like it was a corridor in the Hall Of Fame, he even ran back through that same corridor to see what he missed

you realize I was making a joke, right?

You realize you're bad at making jokes, right?

Is there any way a mod can add another emoticon, like 1 of those dopey faces holding a sign reading "Hey I'm Limp Ditka, the biggest d-bag in this forum, but I'm hoping my overused sarcasm and mindless kindergarten humor amuses you because I'm lonely, oh so lonely."

Thx!

That's probably way too complicated to add.

 

[RnR]

It's not like he just skimmed through that sentence, like it was a corridor in the Hall Of Fame, he even ran back through that same corridor to see what he missed

you realize I was making a joke, right?

You realize you're bad at making jokes, right?

Is there any way a mod can add another emoticon, like 1 of those dopey faces holding a sign reading "Hey I'm Limp Ditka, the biggest d-bag in this forum, but I'm hoping my overused sarcasm and mindless kindergarten humor amuses you because I'm lonely, oh so lonely."

Thx!

You work up a rendering for this and I can get it in the right hands.

 

[E-Z Glider]

Before agreeing to terms with James Shields, the Padres made an “aggressive offer” to the Phillies for lefty Cole Hamels, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports. San Diego had long been said to be pursuing both arms.Though the precise parameters of the offer are not known, Rosenthal indicates that Philadelphia may not feel that the San Diego system has a sufficiently promising single prospect asset to warrant Hamels. It is not clear whether the Padres have any continued interest in working out a deal, though it seems somewhat unlikely that sufficient payroll flexibility remains.

The Phillies prefer to deal with the Red Sox, per Rosenthal, hoping to land either Mookie Betts or Blake Swihart in return. But Boston has not made such an offer, he adds, making a deal seem unlikely unless the Red Sox “reverse course.”

 

[the moops]

The Phillies prefer to deal with the Red Sox, per Rosenthal, hoping to land either Mookie Betts or Blake Swihart in return.

Amaro is a fool

 

[Eephus]

Hamels will play the role of 1972 Steve Carlton

 

[E-Z Glider]

The Phillies prefer to deal with the Red Sox, per Rosenthal, hoping to land either Mookie Betts or Blake Swihart in return.

Amaro is a fool

Not gonna argue that, but Im OK with him holding out for a top prospect in return for Hamels. They're not gonna get Betts, but Swihart seems like a fair swap, IMO.

 

[the moops]

The Phillies prefer to deal with the Red Sox, per Rosenthal, hoping to land either Mookie Betts or Blake Swihart in return.

Amaro is a fool

Not gonna argue that, but Im OK with him holding out for a top prospect in return for Hamels. They're not gonna get Betts, but Swihart seems like a fair swap, IMO.

Swihart is #17 prospect in all of baseball, per BP, and top catcher. Very doubtful that Boston trades him for anything.

 

[Da Gildz]

The Phillies prefer to deal with the Red Sox, per Rosenthal, hoping to land either Mookie Betts or Blake Swihart in return.

Amaro is a fool

Not gonna argue that, but Im OK with him holding out for a top prospect in return for Hamels. They're not gonna get Betts, but Swihart seems like a fair swap, IMO.

Swihart is #17 prospect in all of baseball, per BP, and top catcher. Very doubtful that Boston trades him for anything.

Darnaud was also the #1 catching prospect at 1 time, traded 2x , the 2nd time around traded for RA Dickey ....Hammels is/should be enough to get a Swihart in return.

 

[Limp Ditka]

Gilda - there are like 4 people in this forum that aren't d-bags. Get used to it. We take our baseball serious

Haha I get that. But does this character even post about baseball, all I see is him trolling other posters with zero 'baseball-related' contribution.

You're really getting on someone else for not contributing to baseball discussion here?

 

[Notorious T.R.E.]

All Boston prospects are the best ever, everyone knows this.

 

[the moops]

All Boston prospects are the best ever, everyone knows this.

 

[Good Posting Judge]

All Boston prospects are the best ever, everyone knows this.

Poor Jackie Bradley Jr is already buried.

 

[RnR]

Poor Ruben can't win. People are crushing him for holding out for an elite prospect for Hamels, and guys would be crushing him if he let him go for less than an elite prospect.

 

[the moops]

Poor Ruben can't win. People are crushing him for holding out for an elite prospect for Hamels, and guys would be crushing him if he let him go for less than an elite prospect.

I think he should look for a whole bunch of prospects, not just a headliner. They needs lots of help.

 

[RnR]

Poor Ruben can't win. People are crushing him for holding out for an elite prospect for Hamels, and guys would be crushing him if he let him go for less than an elite prospect.

I think he should look for a whole bunch of prospects, not just a headliner. They needs lots of help.

"A whole bunch of prospects" doesn't keep his job. He's not in a situation where he can take 4 low-level prospects and wait 4 years to say "I told you so."

 

[E-Z Glider]

Poor Ruben can't win. People are crushing him for holding out for an elite prospect for Hamels, and guys would be crushing him if he let him go for less than an elite prospect.

I think he should look for a whole bunch of prospects, not just a headliner. They needs lots of help.

Im in agreement with this. A package of Owens, Devers and Margot would work for me. Take the money saved from Cole and buy Moncada (pipe dream, I know) and they'd be on their way to a respectable rebuild.

 

[the moops]

Poor Ruben can't win. People are crushing him for holding out for an elite prospect for Hamels, and guys would be crushing him if he let him go for less than an elite prospect.

I think he should look for a whole bunch of prospects, not just a headliner. They needs lots of help.

"A whole bunch of prospects" doesn't keep his job. He's not in a situation where he can take 4 low-level prospects and wait 4 years to say "I told you so."

He has kept his job despite not winning more than half their games in each of the last 3 years. Not sure a Hamels trade would end his GM'ship