2015 Fanduel -- Week 1 (1 Viewer)

[karmarooster]

What's that, too early, you say? It's only mid-freaking July and training camp hasn't even started?

Well, you're entirely correct of course, but I just noticed that Fanduel now has NFL games up for grabs! Not many games, but a surprising number for being almost two months away from the full Sunday slate of games on September 13th. I imagine they'll have Thursday night games to include the Pats/Steelers games eventually, too. And get this -- last year, Fanduel ran pre-season games. I have no idea what sane person would wager money on the pre-season, but I'm definitely pumped to get an idea of the first week salaries.

A quick glance over some notable names:

QBs:

• Rodgers and Luck are the most expensive options. No surprise there.
• Tannehill, RG3 and Bradford are very reasonably-priced mid options.
• Alex Smith is about the cheapest certain-to-start QB out there, less than Jameis, Geno and Mariota.

RBs:

• AP is the highest priced option, that was a bit of a surprise.
• CJA and Lacy are more reasonable mid-8,000s.
• Randle, at home against the NYG, looks like a steal at $6,900.

WRs:

• Pricing looks pretty reasonable for the top 15 or so guys.
• Cooks is very nicely priced at $7,400
• Jordan Matthews has to be a nice PPR/Cash game option at $6,800
• Dumpster diving, Terrance Williams at $5,300 looks decent, as Giants/Cowboys tends to be a fun game for fantasy.

TEs:

• Due to no Gronk (who's playing Thursday), Graham is the most expensive at just $6,900
• Kelce at just 6k? Not bad, but not a great matchup against at the Texans.
• Without Gates, Green at $5,700 looks pretty reasonable.

Of course there are bound to be lots of news coming out of training camps with injury updates and position battles. The landscape will shift, but it's interesting to take a peek at the early pricing and consider how training camp and pre-season can effect these values. Right now, there is essentially no meaningful NFL news for at least another week, but I'm jones-ing for some analysis. Who you got for Week 1?

And, about Week 1.... the smartest thing to do would be to not play at all until at least 2-3 weeks of data have been accumulated. But I know I'm going to get caught up in the excitement and have to play a couple games just to celebrate the start of the season. That said, I'll limit my wagers to just 5% of bankroll, and gradually increase that to 25% or so by week 5ish.

 

[Rhythmdoctor]

I love the excitement KR!! I've been winning money in FD for 3 years and can't waitto win the $2M tourney this season!!

 

[karmarooster]

I love the excitement KR!! I've been winning money in FD for 3 years and can't waitto win the $2M tourney this season!!

Yah man! And good luck with that lottery ticket for the big tourney! Some FBGs around here (maybe you're one of them) tend to do pretty well in the tourneys. I mostly stick to cash games and play a few tourneys just for fun but it's not my main strategy.

I did pretty well last year too, winning more on Fanduel than on "1.0" season-long leagues, taking an initial deposit of $250 to $2000 by the time of the AFC/NFC Championship games closed it up for the season. This year I'm going to use $2500 as my bankroll (in theory at least, will only deposit $1k) and aim to hit $10k. With all of the FBGs content, and the value chart in particular, I found the games to be quite consistently beatable last year.

Also I can't recommend enough the latest e-books FBGs published for Cracking Fanduel (and Cracking Draft Kings). Amazingly those are free with Insider subscriptions... I would've easily paid for that content, so thanks for the freebie!

 

[Rhythmdoctor]

I've never done cash games although it's probably a smarter play. I've Cone out ahead every year doing the big tournaments as I usually place in the top 4 at least once throughout the season. Might have to do some cash games this season. Which cash games do u recommend? Buy in amount and number of entries?

 

[msudaisy26]

Nelson Agholor looks like a steal at 5500, as does Ertz for 5400 Eifert at 5k, Spiller at 6300,

 

[karmarooster]

I've never done cash games although it's probably a smarter play. I've Cone out ahead every year doing the big tournaments as I usually place in the top 4 at least once throughout the season. Might have to do some cash games this season. Which cash games do u recommend? Buy in amount and number of entries?

Based on this pretty nice data from Dodds, it's always best to stick to the lowest dollar games. For any given week, the scores to cash for e.g. a 50/50 will be lowest at $1, then a little higher at $2, then a little higher at $5, etc. So 10 x $1 games is better than a single $10 game. I also avoid heads-up for the most part other than to cherry pick a few complete newbies (and the same for picking up a few 3-player leagues). In theory, unless your bank is over $2k, there's no need to go higher than $2 games.

For the most part, I'll enter every $2 Double up (and max out the multi-entry double up), add a few $2 Triples and Quintuples, and then hit as many 50/50s at $1 as possible, with a few tourneys stacked on top. Mid-season last year I had around $400 in play for a given week, on 200-300 games and 2-3 different rosters for each slate (Sunday Only, 1PM, Thursday night, etc).

My general betting strategy is to use "pods" that work sort of like a pyramid with a base of 50/50s and Doubles, a few triples and quintuples in the middle, and one or two tourneys at the top. I mostly concentrate on building solid cash lineups and don't seek to avoid highly owned players, but even still, sometimes cash lineups are good enough to place in tourneys (although usually not near the top). When I really crush it with a lineup, I want to be rewarded more than just doubling my wager. So last season when Fitzpatrick had that 6 TD game (and everyone else went bonkers), I won about $750 on $350 entered, even though it was mostly on cash games, due a couple dollars on tourneys and large leagues. Overall my goal is to just win a steady 40-50% week to week with some diversification (is that "grinding"? it didn't feel like grinding), but to really hit it big a week or two when all the picks work out just right. Some will disagree and say that you should either a) build cash game lineups or b) build tourney lineups, and not blur the lines, but it's worked out well for me so far.

Also I'll be writing some articles about game selection and betting strategy on my website below as the season approaches.

 

[eaglesfan7]

Love it being out so early!

 

[Rhythmdoctor]

I just bought an entry into the $1 Million Sun NFL Rush. Here's my lineup with $300 to spare.

QB Aaron Rodgers
$9,700 ␡
RB Ameer Abdullah
$5,900 ␡
RB Joseph Randle
$6,900 ␡
WR Jordy Nelson
$8,600 ␡
WR Randall Cobb
$8,400 ␡
WR Allen Robinson
$6,100 ␡
TE Zach Ertz
$5,400 ␡
K Josh Brown
$4,500 ␡
D Denver Broncos
$4,200

 

[karmarooster]

I just bought an entry into the $1 Million Sun NFL Rush. Here's my lineup with $300 to spare.

QB Aaron Rodgers

$9,700 ␡

RB Ameer Abdullah

$5,900 ␡

RB Joseph Randle

$6,900 ␡

WR Jordy Nelson

$8,600 ␡

WR Randall Cobb

$8,400 ␡

WR Allen Robinson

$6,100 ␡

TE Zach Ertz

$5,400 ␡

K Josh Brown

$4,500 ␡

D Denver Broncos

$4,200

I see you definitely are a tourney player with not one but two cheap RBs and the mega GB stack at QB-WR1-WR2! Can't say I can get behind Abdullah early in the season, tho I do like Randle.

Interesting to see that Defense (and I assume kickers) can be priced below 4500 this year... that was a change last year from 2013 (spreading out the price points more rather than clumping all at 5k), and per the Cracking Fanduel e-book, it was a fairly significant change.

I was thinking that entering a lineup in July could go one of two ways... either you get the in-season effect similar to joining a Sunday contest early in the week (say on Monday) and therefore playing against a few more teams who forget to tweak their lineups late in the week. On the other hand... the people joining NFL week 1 games in July are probably foaming-at-the-mouth fantasy players like us. Can't quite decide if its a net negative or positive.

 

[snellman]

I've never done cash games although it's probably a smarter play. I've Cone out ahead every year doing the big tournaments as I usually place in the top 4 at least once throughout the season. Might have to do some cash games this season. Which cash games do u recommend? Buy in amount and number of entries?

Based on this pretty nice data from Dodds, it's always best to stick to the lowest dollar games. For any given week, the scores to cash for e.g. a 50/50 will be lowest at $1, then a little higher at $2, then a little higher at $5, etc. So 10 x $1 games is better than a single $10 game. I also avoid heads-up for the most part other than to cherry pick a few complete newbies (and the same for picking up a few 3-player leagues). In theory, unless your bank is over $2k, there's no need to go higher than $2 games.

For the most part, I'll enter every $2 Double up (and max out the multi-entry double up), add a few $2 Triples and Quintuples, and then hit as many 50/50s at $1 as possible, with a few tourneys stacked on top. Mid-season last year I had around $400 in play for a given week, on 200-300 games and 2-3 different rosters for each slate (Sunday Only, 1PM, Thursday night, etc).

My general betting strategy is to use "pods" that work sort of like a pyramid with a base of 50/50s and Doubles, a few triples and quintuples in the middle, and one or two tourneys at the top. I mostly concentrate on building solid cash lineups and don't seek to avoid highly owned players, but even still, sometimes cash lineups are good enough to place in tourneys (although usually not near the top). When I really crush it with a lineup, I want to be rewarded more than just doubling my wager. So last season when Fitzpatrick had that 6 TD game (and everyone else went bonkers), I won about $750 on $350 entered, even though it was mostly on cash games, due a couple dollars on tourneys and large leagues. Overall my goal is to just win a steady 40-50% week to week with some diversification (is that "grinding"? it didn't feel like grinding), but to really hit it big a week or two when all the picks work out just right. Some will disagree and say that you should either a) build cash game lineups or b) build tourney lineups, and not blur the lines, but it's worked out well for me so far.

Also I'll be writing some articles about game selection and betting strategy on my website below as the season approaches.

Sounds pretty much identical to my game plan. Football can't start soon enough. Played NBA last year and did OK. Have been playing baseball and not doing very well. They say baseball is less variant than football but I call BS on that one.

 

[Rhythmdoctor]

I just bought an entry into the $1 Million Sun NFL Rush. Here's my lineup with $300 to spare.

QB Aaron Rodgers

$9,700 ␡

RB Ameer Abdullah

$5,900 ␡

RB Joseph Randle

$6,900 ␡

WR Jordy Nelson

$8,600 ␡

WR Randall Cobb

$8,400 ␡

WR Allen Robinson

$6,100 ␡

TE Zach Ertz

$5,400 ␡

K Josh Brown

$4,500 ␡

D Denver Broncos

$4,200

I see you definitely are a tourney player with not one but two cheap RBs and the mega GB stack at QB-WR1-WR2! Can't say I can get behind Abdullah early in the season, tho I do like Randle.

Interesting to see that Defense (and I assume kickers) can be priced below 4500 this year... that was a change last year from 2013 (spreading out the price points more rather than clumping all at 5k), and per the Cracking Fanduel e-book, it was a fairly significant change.

I was thinking that entering a lineup in July could go one of two ways... either you get the in-season effect similar to joining a Sunday contest early in the week (say on Monday) and therefore playing against a few more teams who forget to tweak their lineups late in the week. On the other hand... the people joining NFL week 1 games in July are probably foaming-at-the-mouth fantasy players like us. Can't quite decide if its a net negative or positive.

Ha ha, that obvious, eh? As I think about it, I can see how I'd lean toward a 'safer' lineup in a 50/50 cash game. Only need to be in top half, so no reason to take chances. My only avoidance of cash games comes from the fact that I'd probably have to enter 100+ to make it worthwhile and that's a lot of teams.

 

[msudaisy26]

I've never done cash games although it's probably a smarter play. I've Cone out ahead every year doing the big tournaments as I usually place in the top 4 at least once throughout the season. Might have to do some cash games this season. Which cash games do u recommend? Buy in amount and number of entries?

Based on this pretty nice data from Dodds, it's always best to stick to the lowest dollar games. For any given week, the scores to cash for e.g. a 50/50 will be lowest at $1, then a little higher at $2, then a little higher at $5, etc. So 10 x $1 games is better than a single $10 game. I also avoid heads-up for the most part other than to cherry pick a few complete newbies (and the same for picking up a few 3-player leagues). In theory, unless your bank is over $2k, there's no need to go higher than $2 games.

For the most part, I'll enter every $2 Double up (and max out the multi-entry double up), add a few $2 Triples and Quintuples, and then hit as many 50/50s at $1 as possible, with a few tourneys stacked on top. Mid-season last year I had around $400 in play for a given week, on 200-300 games and 2-3 different rosters for each slate (Sunday Only, 1PM, Thursday night, etc).

My general betting strategy is to use "pods" that work sort of like a pyramid with a base of 50/50s and Doubles, a few triples and quintuples in the middle, and one or two tourneys at the top. I mostly concentrate on building solid cash lineups and don't seek to avoid highly owned players, but even still, sometimes cash lineups are good enough to place in tourneys (although usually not near the top). When I really crush it with a lineup, I want to be rewarded more than just doubling my wager. So last season when Fitzpatrick had that 6 TD game (and everyone else went bonkers), I won about $750 on $350 entered, even though it was mostly on cash games, due a couple dollars on tourneys and large leagues. Overall my goal is to just win a steady 40-50% week to week with some diversification (is that "grinding"? it didn't feel like grinding), but to really hit it big a week or two when all the picks work out just right. Some will disagree and say that you should either a) build cash game lineups or b) build tourney lineups, and not blur the lines, but it's worked out well for me so far.

Also I'll be writing some articles about game selection and betting strategy on my website below as the season approaches.

Sounds pretty much identical to my game plan. Football can't start soon enough. Played NBA last year and did OK. Have been playing baseball and not doing very well. They say baseball is less variant than football but I call BS on that one.

I am with you Snell. I did great for NFL and NBA, I have dabbled in MLB, but lost about 30 dollars.

 

[(HULK)]

They locked in prices for Week 1 already?

Thats incredibly dumb.

 

[Shutout]

They locked in prices for Week 1 already?

Thats incredibly dumb.

What happens if you buy Aaron Rodgers and then he is out Week 1? I assume you can swap him out?

 

[(HULK)]

They locked in prices for Week 1 already?

Thats incredibly dumb.

What happens if you buy Aaron Rodgers and then he is out Week 1? I assume you can swap him out?

You can change your lineup as much as you want up until kickoff of the first player's game.

Thing is, by the time preseason is over, there will be people injured, suprise starters and such. Fielding a team will be a piece of cake when you can plug in some guys super cheap.... and everyone will have them on their squad.

 

[karmarooster]

Had to join the fun by putting together a dummy lineup... much more "top heavy" cash-game style lineup as compared to RhythmDoctor's above:

Luck

CJA/Randle

Cooks/Matthews/Charles Johnson

Green/Bryant/Panthers

 

[karmarooster]

They locked in prices for Week 1 already?

Thats incredibly dumb.

What happens if you buy Aaron Rodgers and then he is out Week 1? I assume you can swap him out?

You can change your lineup as much as you want up until kickoff of the first player's game.

Thing is, by the time preseason is over, there will be people injured, suprise starters and such. Fielding a team will be a piece of cake when you can plug in some guys super cheap.... and everyone will have them on their squad.

I tend to agree with you, but it's balanced out by the fact that there's so much uncertainty the first few weeks, even the heavy-favorites that will emerge due to training camp and pre-season are no sure bets. I also suspect the reason they have the first slate of Sunday games but not the Thursday game has to due with the pending appeals for Brady and Bell (and by extension the values of Jimmy and DWill).

 

[maf005]

And, about Week 1.... the smartest thing to do would be to not play at all until at least 2-3 weeks of data have been accumulated. But I know I'm going to get caught up in the excitement and have to play a couple games just to celebrate the start of the season. That said, I'll limit my wagers to just 5% of bankroll, and gradually increase that to 25% or so by week 5ish.

Do we have weekly volume data for these games? Seems likely to me that more noobs will enter the games early in the season, thus giving you a bigger edge. Week one should have several players with really high ownership %s due to the prices being released so early.

 

[Scoresman]

First year trying fanduel seriously. Just deposited $200 for a starting bankroll. Read the Cracking Fanduel book and this looks to be pretty entertaining at the least. I already have a spreadsheet ready to go to pick lineups as soon as week 1 projections are out.

My previous experience was when FBG offered a free fanduel deposit or whatever it was. I went 0-8 in all my contests.

 

[Bri]

They locked in prices for Week 1 already?

Thats incredibly dumb.

New DFS sites this year. This got people talking about them and discussing their site. I thought same as you for about a second, since I think it's brilliant.

So what if player X gets injured or player Y beats out player Z. It's the same pool for everyone.

I like Draft Kings' news section now and Fanduel's new layout...nothing but goodness for us to watch these sites compete with shiny new features.

I figure this forces Draft Kings to do something and then there's still time for Fanduel to have to one up them too.

I just sit back and enjoy.

 

[Soulfly3]

I find the 50/50s are pretty easy to win. I stil to those and will join a crapshoot tourney here and there with an absolute trashbag of a roster to try and hit the lottery

 

[karmarooster]

So the Audible did a podcast on the Fanduel pricing release...

http://podcast.footballguys.com/2015/Footballguys-Audible-2015-Vol66a.mp3



Btw, Cecile mentioned at the end there will be a weekly Fanduel audible podcast, as well as a weekly Draftkings audible podcast this season.

 

[John Lee]

So the Audible did a podcast on the Fanduel pricing release...

http://podcast.footballguys.com/2015/Footballguys-Audible-2015-Vol66a.mp3



Btw, Cecile mentioned at the end there will be a weekly Fanduel audible podcast, as well as a weekly Draftkings audible podcast this season.

Just wait to see what we have in store for DFS this year...an absolute wealth of content covering four different DFS sites.

I would estimate we will have 10x the amount of coverage on DFS that we had last season...including the podcasts you reference, as well as some other interesting nuggets that I cannot share just yet. And don't forget the Daily Crusher app!

The fact that JB and DD decided to include all of this content as part of the yearly subscription is unheard of...the DFS content, alone, would cost you $30/month on just about any other site.

Stay tuned for more details!

 

[Peyton Marino]

First year trying fanduel seriously. Just deposited $200 for a starting bankroll. Read the Cracking Fanduel book and this looks to be pretty entertaining at the least. I already have a spreadsheet ready to go to pick lineups as soon as week 1 projections are out.

My previous experience was when FBG offered a free fanduel deposit or whatever it was. I went 0-8 in all my contests.

will you be using the science of statistics to pick players?

 

[Carl Eller's Dead Liver]

Tony Romo ($8,700)

Justin Forsett ($7,800)

CJ Spiller ($6,300)

Steve Johnson ($4,700)

Julio Jones ($9,000)

Calvin Johnson ($8,500)

Travis Kelce ($6,000)

McManus ($4,500)

TB D ($4,500)

 

[Scoresman]

First year trying fanduel seriously. Just deposited $200 for a starting bankroll. Read the Cracking Fanduel book and this looks to be pretty entertaining at the least. I already have a spreadsheet ready to go to pick lineups as soon as week 1 projections are out.

My previous experience was when FBG offered a free fanduel deposit or whatever it was. I went 0-8 in all my contests.

will you be using the science of statistics to pick players?

Absolutely! The Cracking DFS book by itself is overflowing with the science of statistics.

 

[karmarooster]

Tony Romo ($8,700)

Justin Forsett ($7,800)

CJ Spiller ($6,300)

Steve Johnson ($4,700)

Julio Jones ($9,000)

Calvin Johnson ($8,500)

Travis Kelce ($6,000)

McManus ($4,500)

TB D ($4,500)

Wow, did not even see Stevie way down there, that's an absolute steal while Gates is out. And if anything happens to Floyd in training camp, this guy will rocket up in ownership percentage.

Guess I'll be tinkering the next 2 months:

• QB
  Tony Romo
  NYG@DAL8:30PM
  $8,700
  ␡
• 
  
  RB
  DeMarco Murray
  PHI@ATL7:10PM
  $8,500
  ␡
• 
  
  RB
  C.J. Anderson
  BAL@DEN4:25PM
  $8,400
  ␡
• 
  
  WR
  Brandin Cooks
  NO@ARI4:05PM
  $7,400
  ␡
• 
  
  WR
  Jordan Matthews
  PHI@ATL7:10PM
  $6,800
  ␡
• 
  WR
  Steve Johnson
  DET@SD4:05PM
  $4,700
  ␡
• 
  
  TE
  Ladarius Green
  DET@SD4:05PM
  $5,700
  ␡
• 
  
  K
  Matt Bryant
  PHI@ATL7:10PM
  $5,000
  ␡
• 
  
  D
  Carolina Panthers
  CAR@JAC1:00PM
  $4,800

 

[karmarooster]

New article on Game Selection: http://www.football401k.com/fanduel-202-game-selection/

TL;DR = Focus on multiple, low dollar buy-ins at the $1 and $2 level rather than reaching up to the $5 and $10 level.

 

[Quint]

first run:

Dalton - 7100

Anderson - 8400

Yeldon - 7000

Dez - 8700

KBenjamin - 7500

JMatthews - 6800

Walker - 5400

Boswell - 4500

AZ - 4300

 

[32 Counter Pass]

Is there any advantage to entering contests this early?

 

[Fantasysports1]

I find the 50/50s are pretty easy to win. I stil to those and will join a crapshoot tourney here and there with an absolute trashbag of a roster to try and hit the lottery

They were somewhat easy in the first half of the season but I found it tougher later on. I do think having a positive ROI long term is doable but you have to be disciplined. There is variance and one can lose several weeks in a row if not more. You have to have a good reason for why you are fielding your lineup in cash games.

You do need a big BR in order to get anywhere because let's say you play 1000 over the course of a season, and are ROI of 8%, you only will have 80 dollars more than before the year started. This is why some pros play tens of thousands because you pretty much have to in order to make a lot.

 

[karmarooster]

Is there any advantage to entering contests this early?

Probably not... in some cases, entering early makes you more likely to join a game against someone who won't update his lineup as the game gets closer. But, anyone joining in July is probably a straight fiend (like me).

For the record, I've been having fun building lineups, but haven't entered any contests yet.

 

[karmarooster]

I find the 50/50s are pretty easy to win. I stil to those and will join a crapshoot tourney here and there with an absolute trashbag of a roster to try and hit the lottery

They were somewhat easy in the first half of the season but I found it tougher later on. I do think having a positive ROI long term is doable but you have to be disciplined. There is variance and one can lose several weeks in a row if not more. You have to have a good reason for why you are fielding your lineup in cash games.

You do need a big BR in order to get anywhere because let's say you play 1000 over the course of a season, and are ROI of 8%, you only will have 80 dollars more than before the year started. This is why some pros play tens of thousands because you pretty much have to in order to make a lot.

I had the exact same experience my first year in Fanduel (2 years ago). But last year, I didn't ever feel like a hit a wall after week 10 or so. Every year, there are more and more users, the majority of which are playing for the first time. Consider that in 2013, there were just under 200k users. But last year, there were over 1.0 million. That's 800k new, unique users who were complete noobs. There stand to be more total noobs this year as compared to Fanduel players who have ever played. Their growth is a staggering, Uber-like phenomenon.

Also, in terms of ROI, 8% for the season is not worth it. If you diversify and stick to mostly cash games, it's possible to have off weeks were you just break even or have a lowly ROI of 8% as you mentioned. Discipline is key, in not wagering too much of your bankroll, and in diversifying with multiple players and game times (Thursday night, Sunday only, 1pm only etc.) The trade off is that ROI is not like to be much over 100% for a given week very often, even for a relatively good week. But if you stack weeks on weeks of modest 30-50% gains, your season-long BR can turn into a monster.

 

[Quint]

I find the 50/50s are pretty easy to win. I stil to those and will join a crapshoot tourney here and there with an absolute trashbag of a roster to try and hit the lottery

They were somewhat easy in the first half of the season but I found it tougher later on. I do think having a positive ROI long term is doable but you have to be disciplined. There is variance and one can lose several weeks in a row if not more. You have to have a good reason for why you are fielding your lineup in cash games.

You do need a big BR in order to get anywhere because let's say you play 1000 over the course of a season, and are ROI of 8%, you only will have 80 dollars more than before the year started. This is why some pros play tens of thousands because you pretty much have to in order to make a lot.

I had the exact same experience my first year in Fanduel (2 years ago). But last year, I didn't ever feel like a hit a wall after week 10 or so. Every year, there are more and more users, the majority of which are playing for the first time. Consider that in 2013, there were just under 200k users. But last year, there were over 1.0 million. That's 800k new, unique users who were complete noobs. There stand to be more total noobs this year as compared to Fanduel players who have ever played. Their growth is a staggering, Uber-like phenomenon.

Also, in terms of ROI, 8% for the season is not worth it. If you diversify and stick to mostly cash games, it's possible to have off weeks were you just break even or have a lowly ROI of 8% as you mentioned. Discipline is key, in not wagering too much of your bankroll, and in diversifying with multiple players and game times (Thursday night, Sunday only, 1pm only etc.) The trade off is that ROI is not like to be much over 100% for a given week very often, even for a relatively good week. But if you stack weeks on weeks of modest 30-50% gains, your season-long BR can turn into a monster.

read your articles: good stuff. :cheers:

Q: what % of your bankroll do you recommend wagering each week, based on the details listed in the 201, with the goal of a season-long positive ROI?

 

[Fantasysports1]

I find the 50/50s are pretty easy to win. I stil to those and will join a crapshoot tourney here and there with an absolute trashbag of a roster to try and hit the lottery

They were somewhat easy in the first half of the season but I found it tougher later on. I do think having a positive ROI long term is doable but you have to be disciplined. There is variance and one can lose several weeks in a row if not more. You have to have a good reason for why you are fielding your lineup in cash games.

You do need a big BR in order to get anywhere because let's say you play 1000 over the course of a season, and are ROI of 8%, you only will have 80 dollars more than before the year started. This is why some pros play tens of thousands because you pretty much have to in order to make a lot.

I had the exact same experience my first year in Fanduel (2 years ago). But last year, I didn't ever feel like a hit a wall after week 10 or so. Every year, there are more and more users, the majority of which are playing for the first time. Consider that in 2013, there were just under 200k users. But last year, there were over 1.0 million. That's 800k new, unique users who were complete noobs. There stand to be more total noobs this year as compared to Fanduel players who have ever played. Their growth is a staggering, Uber-like phenomenon.

Also, in terms of ROI, 8% for the season is not worth it. If you diversify and stick to mostly cash games, it's possible to have off weeks were you just break even or have a lowly ROI of 8% as you mentioned. Discipline is key, in not wagering too much of your bankroll, and in diversifying with multiple players and game times (Thursday night, Sunday only, 1pm only etc.) The trade off is that ROI is not like to be much over 100% for a given week very often, even for a relatively good week. But if you stack weeks on weeks of modest 30-50% gains, your season-long BR can turn into a monster.

In cash games you generally lose or win most of your lineups if you use only one lu. If the cash threshold is around 115 and you get like 110, you will lose most if not all your cash contests. So in a losing week you can lose 80 to 100% of that week's entry fees. Even if you win cash games at 60% over the entire season, you will still only manage around 12% ROI on your total entry fees.

One mistake I made last year was playing a good amount more than what I did in my early weeks. For example winning when you play 350 but you play 1000 the next week. I should have been more definitive in my BR but BR can be tough to define. One is willing to include more of their budget to DFS if they are confident in their ability to win.

 

[karmarooster]

I find the 50/50s are pretty easy to win. I stil to those and will join a crapshoot tourney here and there with an absolute trashbag of a roster to try and hit the lottery

They were somewhat easy in the first half of the season but I found it tougher later on. I do think having a positive ROI long term is doable but you have to be disciplined. There is variance and one can lose several weeks in a row if not more. You have to have a good reason for why you are fielding your lineup in cash games.

You do need a big BR in order to get anywhere because let's say you play 1000 over the course of a season, and are ROI of 8%, you only will have 80 dollars more than before the year started. This is why some pros play tens of thousands because you pretty much have to in order to make a lot.

I had the exact same experience my first year in Fanduel (2 years ago). But last year, I didn't ever feel like a hit a wall after week 10 or so. Every year, there are more and more users, the majority of which are playing for the first time. Consider that in 2013, there were just under 200k users. But last year, there were over 1.0 million. That's 800k new, unique users who were complete noobs. There stand to be more total noobs this year as compared to Fanduel players who have ever played. Their growth is a staggering, Uber-like phenomenon.

Also, in terms of ROI, 8% for the season is not worth it. If you diversify and stick to mostly cash games, it's possible to have off weeks were you just break even or have a lowly ROI of 8% as you mentioned. Discipline is key, in not wagering too much of your bankroll, and in diversifying with multiple players and game times (Thursday night, Sunday only, 1pm only etc.) The trade off is that ROI is not like to be much over 100% for a given week very often, even for a relatively good week. But if you stack weeks on weeks of modest 30-50% gains, your season-long BR can turn into a monster.

read your articles: good stuff. :cheers:

Q: what % of your bankroll do you recommend wagering each week, based on the details listed in the 201, with the goal of a season-long positive ROI?

Great, thanks! My goal this year is to go up 4x on an initial bankroll of $2,500, so aiming for $10k (will require a strong push for the full regular season, playoffs, and early NBA when there are tons of spillover players from the NFL).

You can start with a very small % of total bankroll in the early weeks, and increase it week to week until it ramps up to 25-30% of total bank roll by mid-season. For example:

Week 1 = 5%

Week 2 = 10%

Week 3 = 15%

Week 4 = 20%

Week 5 = 25%

etc.

After that, you can sometimes feel really good about a week and make a decision to wager more, but it's very difficult to know when you're being objective or if you've just fallen in love with your own lineups. That's the TL;DR version of an upcoming article on Bankroll Management. I'll scale it down at the end of the season, Week 17 and playoffs in particular, back down to the 5-10%. Another way to look at is that you can be more conservative when it's your own cash on the line, and once you've won some on top of that, be a little more aggressive with "won money".

This is a little off-topic, but during the NBA season I did notice there were opportunities when it made sense to wager more. A few nights during the year, a big player like Kevin Durant or LBJ would be a surprise inactive, announced just 30min-1hr before lineups locked at 7pm. In this scenario, you can be certain that 15% or so of the pool would still have an inactive zero. I think those opportunities are rare in NFL because a player who is a GTD and reports as inactive at noon is not a huge surprise and not likely to be on 15% of 'zombie' lineups.

 

[Joe T]

I posted some of the top salaries here. Just a quick reference if you get bored and do not want to log into fanduel.

Really looking forward to week 1.

 

[snogger]

So the Audible did a podcast on the Fanduel pricing release...

http://podcast.footballguys.com/2015/Footballguys-Audible-2015-Vol66a.mp3



Btw, Cecile mentioned at the end there will be a weekly Fanduel audible podcast, as well as a weekly Draftkings audible podcast this season.

Just wait to see what we have in store for DFS this year...an absolute wealth of content covering four different DFS sites.

I would estimate we will have 10x the amount of coverage on DFS that we had last season...including the podcasts you reference, as well as some other interesting nuggets that I cannot share just yet. And don't forget the Daily Crusher app!

The fact that JB and DD decided to include all of this content as part of the yearly subscription is unheard of...the DFS content, alone, would cost you $30/month on just about any other site.

Stay tuned for more details!

 

[snogger]

Put a Entry into one of the $0 entry/$0 win contests just to get a lineup in to play with..

Came up with:

QB Carson Palmer
RB Adrian Peterson
RB Joseph Randle
WR Randall Cobb
WR Larry Fitzgerald
WR Mike Wallace
TE Greg Olsen
K Nick Novak
D Carolina Panthers

Bradford @Atl for $7500 might be a great bargain if he fits with that offense..

 

[Itchy Amos]

I know that I'm addicted to NFL DFS when everything that I hear in July & August makes me think about my potential week 1 lineup.

I dabbled a little while last year before deciding that -for me- the most money can be made most easily by having many (25+) big contest entries. I was able to turn $100 into more than $2,000 over the final 6 weeks (with most of it happening in the final 3) and cant wait to see if it was just a fluke. I'm a sucker for the low cost QB.

 

[Bobcat10]

 

[(HULK)]

I can't believe the priced these guys so early. It is going to be so easy to make an awesome lineup week1.

 

[JoeSteeler]

.

 

[mrip541]

I can't believe the priced these guys so early. It is going to be so easy to make an awesome lineup week1.

Problem is everybody else can do it too.

 

[Fantasysports1]

This is true, you have to know who the top plays and best values are for that week. You have to recognize when you should just play the chalk play because everyone is on him and that chalk play is a top value.

This is not going to be easy. You have to put in the time and do some detailed work accounting for Vegas lines, matchups, recent performance, game O/U's, etc. You have to consider all the key factors.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

Week 1 Interactive Value Chart is up. (Subscriber-only.)

I'll be revising my projections a lot between now and the actual start of Week 1, obviously.

 

[achemen]

Week 1 Interactive Value Chart is up. (Subscriber-only.)

I'll be revising my projections a lot between now and the actual start of Week 1, obviously.

What an awesome tool!

 

[karmarooster]

Wow, did not realize this was now in a separate forum.

Nice work on the Value Chart - only 1 set of projections up now, are those MT's?

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

Wow, did not realize this was now in a separate forum.

Nice work on the Value Chart - only 1 set of projections up now, are those MT's?

Yes. I think Dodds will have his done this week. I'm not sure on Bloom's time frame.

Also, we will have interactive value charts for college football this season with projections by Devin Knotts. I can't promise they'll be fully functional before the 9/3 game slates, but that's the goal.

 

[Zyphros]

Just put in a lineup. Loving the Vikings super stack in week 1 right now.

Teddy Bridgewater

Andre Ellington

Joseph Randle

Dez Bryant

Julio Jones

Charles Johnson

Kyle Rudolph

Matt Bryant

Jets