2015 Fanduel -- Week 1 (3 Viewers)

[Fantasysports1]

Don't post lineups, especially the cash game ones. The reason is you don't want to just give someone a lineup to use.

 

[Zyphros]

Don't post lineups, especially the cash game ones. The reason is you don't want to just give someone a lineup to use.

And if my lineup is for fun I can't share the experience? Get a grip. The forum is a place to get opinions and debate... that includes lineups FOR FREE.

 

[Fantasysports1]

The pros at rotogrinders do not post actual lineups. You are not allowed to post lineups on rotogrinders forums. It is a slippery slope. Then people can ask for advice on forums about their lineups. It promotes line up sharing which is not good for the industry.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

Posting lineups is no problem here.

Many of the Footballguys staff will be posting cash-game lineups on the main site, so feel free to post yours in the forum and then gloat if you outperform us.

 

[snogger]

Well, after the devastating Sunday that it was for the Packers.. Devante Adams at $5500 seems like quite a bargain now

 

[Fantasysports1]

There are several ways to go based on the cheap WRs and a cheap RB like Ameer.

 

[Scoresman]

Are your Week 1 player projections that I'm assuming the interactive chart is based on posted anywhere yet?

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

No, but I think they'll be posted this week.

 

[Joe T]

I posted the week 1 salaries for RBs, plus totals, spreads, and will add projections and implied values once I have them.

Note: I'm sure FBG has something better than this. I'll look for it (or would appreciate to a link). I just like having my own tables so that I can add more data and charts.

http://www.sackfumble.com/week-one-running-back-salaries-on-fanduel-2015/

 

[karmarooster]

Cross posting from the Taylor thread in the sharkpool:

Looking at Week 1, in 2013 Terrelle Pryor opened up as the Raiders starters in week 1 against the colts with 217 yards passing, 1 TD/2INT and 112 yards rushing. Taylor could easily approximate those numbers against the colts, at home (give him half the rushing yards).

217 1 TD/2int + 56 yards rushing = 16.28 points.

At his $5,000 price tag on Fanduel (1st $5k QB special of the season!), that's a 3x-level return.

 

[Tennessee_ATO]

Posting lineups is no problem here.

Many of the Footballguys staff will be posting cash-game lineups on the main site, so feel free to post yours in the forum and then gloat if you outperform us.

This. Last year the core group all shared lineups and data from contests (such as ownership and winning totals). We also debated the merits of different players -- all very helpful stuff. Easily the best discussion board I saw last year.

 

[Tennessee_ATO]

Well, after the devastating Sunday that it was for the Packers.. Devante Adams at $5500 seems like quite a bargain now

I bet his ownership numbers are off the charts.

 

[JoeSteeler]

Don't post lineups, especially the cash game ones. The reason is you don't want to just give someone a lineup to use.

And if my lineup is for fun I can't share the experience? Get a grip. The forum is a place to get opinions and debate... that includes lineups FOR FREE.

 

[Fantasysports1]

Don't post lineups, especially the cash game ones. The reason is you don't want to just give someone a lineup to use.

And if my lineup is for fun I can't share the experience? Get a grip. The forum is a place to get opinions and debate... that includes lineups FOR FREE.

I am not going to go into detail but there are reasons why it isn't recommended to share lineups. On RG you cannot post lineups. When people are playing for money and using the exact lineups it can become an issue.

I know there is staking where investors invest in certain DFS players who they feel are EV +.

I am sure that people sell lineups but I do not know who and how profitable that is when people are already working against the rake. I think some people can ask for a percent of one's profits.

What happens if Top pros like CSURAM and ALSMIZZLE just post their core lineups? Then some Joe can just copy the lineup and know he will be EV +. The Joe didn't have to do any work himself.

I do think that it probably won't matter too much at least on this site. However if enough people do this, it change the threshold for winning. It could just be people copying lineups from various pros.

 

[NixonMask]

If sharks think they can post a lneup that enough people will copy and paste to skew a contest, it isnt going to be one with plus EV

 

[karmarooster]

The pros at rotogrinders do not post actual lineups. You are not allowed to post lineups on rotogrinders forums. It is a slippery slope. Then people can ask for advice on forums about their lineups. It promotes line up sharing which is not good for the industry.

Don't post lineups, especially the cash game ones. The reason is you don't want to just give someone a lineup to use.

And if my lineup is for fun I can't share the experience? Get a grip. The forum is a place to get opinions and debate... that includes lineups FOR FREE.

Posting lineups is no problem here.

Many of the Footballguys staff will be posting cash-game lineups on the main site, so feel free to post yours in the forum and then gloat if you outperform us.

Posting lineups is no problem here.

Many of the Footballguys staff will be posting cash-game lineups on the main site, so feel free to post yours in the forum and then gloat if you outperform us.

This. Last year the core group all shared lineups and data from contests (such as ownership and winning totals). We also debated the merits of different players -- all very helpful stuff. Easily the best discussion board I saw last year.

Don't post lineups, especially the cash game ones. The reason is you don't want to just give someone a lineup to use.

And if my lineup is for fun I can't share the experience? Get a grip. The forum is a place to get opinions and debate... that includes lineups FOR FREE.

Take a clue dude. who do you think is giving away super secret highly profitable LUs? How would some random joe know a good one from a bad one? And even if some random joe DID copy and paste, what sort of exposure are you expecting for the millions of fanduel users? Literally condia could walk in here and post his top LU and what, 20 people would copy it? 50? 100? 1,000? It's not going to have an impact on the games. And there's no one magic lineup, most top players use a mix of diversified lineups. People talk about the most desirable players for a given week anyways (usually they aren't a huge secret).

If you don't like the LU discussion, where were you last year when this was discussed every week single week? If you want to participate in a forum thats all super secretive because we don't want someone to steal our super secret formulas, then go back to RG and get super secret.

 

[karmarooster]

Here's my favorite lineup right now:

Taylor

AP

Lacy

ODB

Matthews

Adams

Olsen

Ryan

Dolphins

 

[Quint]

Here's my favorite lineup right now:

Taylor

AP

Lacy

ODB

Matthews

Adams

Olsen

Ryan

Dolphins

cash game, yes?

 

[Fantasysports1]

Bradford

Lacy

Ameer

Julio

Calvin

Davante

Olsen

I find this lineup interesting because Julio could be the top WR scorer and Calvin should be high floor.

Another one I have is:

Bradford

Lacy

CJ Anderson

Julio

Matthews

Steve Johnson

Olsen

If you choose to not go cheap for one RB (most like I will play Ameer), you could downgrade Calvin to Matthews who should be high floor as the #1 option for Bradford. Steve Johnson is probably not as good a play as Adams though and you may want to play Adams because more people will use him over Steve.

 

[karmarooster]

Here's my favorite lineup right now:

Taylor

AP

Lacy

ODB

Matthews

Adams

Olsen

Ryan

Dolphins

cash game, yes?

I'd say this is ideal for a cash game due to some players in particular -- Olsen and Adams -- but I think it's decent for GPPs since it's not clear who will be low ownership, other than Taylor who should be.

 

[karmarooster]

Bradford

Lacy

Ameer

Julio

Calvin

Davante

Olsen

I find this lineup interesting because Julio could be the top WR scorer and Calvin should be high floor.

Another one I have is:

Bradford

Lacy

CJ Anderson

Julio

Matthews

Steve Johnson

Olsen

If you choose to not go cheap for one RB (most like I will play Ameer), you could downgrade Calvin to Matthews who should be high floor as the #1 option for Bradford. Steve Johnson is probably not as good a play as Adams though and you may want to play Adams because more people will use him over Steve.

I prefer ODB to Julio week 1, due to the fact that Julio should be shadowed by Maxwell but there's no one on the Cowboys that can cover ODB. Very similar price points. Although ODB and Eli have looked mostly like garbage in the preseason.

 

[NixonMask]

It would be interesting to know after the fact, but is it safe to assume Devante Adams is going to be the most owned player ever % wise in DFS?

Edit: And when there is a player, like Adams, with such a hgh owenership expectation how does that change everyones approach to both cash and tournament style games that week?

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

Edit: And when there is a player, like Adams, with such a hgh owenership expectation how does that change everyones approach to both cash and tournament style games that week?

It doesn't affect my approach in cash games at all.

Randall Cobb evidently has a decent chance of playing in Week 1, in which case I think Adams is merely a good value, not a super amazing crazy good value. But assuming Cobb doesn't play . . .

In tournaments, I would probably have some lineups with Adams and some without. If I were allowed to enter only one lineup, I'd probably include Adams and look to gain uniqueness elsewhere.

 

[Tennessee_ATO]

Edit: And when there is a player, like Adams, with such a hgh owenership expectation how does that change everyones approach to both cash and tournament style games that week?

It doesn't affect my approach in cash games at all.

Randall Cobb evidently has a decent chance of playing in Week 1, in which case I think Adams is merely a good value, not a super amazing crazy good value. But assuming Cobb doesn't play . . .

In tournaments, I would probably have some lineups with Adams and some without. If I were allowed to enter only one lineup, I'd probably include Adams and look to gain uniqueness elsewhere.

I couldn't agree with this more. If you think Adams's ceiling represents the best potential ROI then you have to roster him, at least in your primary lineups. Worry about uniqueness on the fringes of your roster.

 

[karmarooster]

Edit: And when there is a player, like Adams, with such a hgh owenership expectation how does that change everyones approach to both cash and tournament style games that week?

It doesn't affect my approach in cash games at all.

Randall Cobb evidently has a decent chance of playing in Week 1, in which case I think Adams is merely a good value, not a super amazing crazy good value. But assuming Cobb doesn't play . . .

In tournaments, I would probably have some lineups with Adams and some without. If I were allowed to enter only one lineup, I'd probably include Adams and look to gain uniqueness elsewhere.

I couldn't agree with this more. If you think Adams's ceiling represents the best potential ROI then you have to roster him, at least in your primary lineups. Worry about uniqueness on the fringes of your roster.

I think Adams will certainly be the highest owned player in week 1, probably up to around 75% ownership in cash games.

For tourneys, I'll try to make some lineups without him, but he might necessary rather than a player to avoid for 'uniqueness'.

His best game as a rookie -- 7/117/1TD -- would 21.2 points, or 3.8x. If he has a nice game, it would be almost impossible to compete in a large tourney without him when considering his ownership percentage might be 40-50% even in large GPPs.

 

[karmarooster]

Odd that Fanduel still hasn't released the Thursday night slate, or any of the Double Up/Triple Up/Quintuple Ups, other than the large multi-entry doubles.

Also, there doesn't appear to be a max number of entries in the large Double, where last year it was capped at 25.

 

[snogger]

Man.. using Tyrod and Devante Adams sure opens up a lot..

First sample:

QB - Tyrod

RB - ADP

RB - Joseph Randle or Doug Martin

WR - Julio Jones

WR - Dez Bryant

WR - Devante Adams

TE - Greg Olsen

K - Cody Parkey

Def - Carolia Panthers

 

[Joe T]

Tyrod hype 2015 = Shaun Hill 2014

I'd rather someone kick me in the nuts than go through that #### again.

 

[snogger]

Tyrod hype 2015 = Shaun Hill 2014

I'd rather someone kick me in the nuts than go through that #### again.

Just remember last year throwing together a $1 gpp lineup with a $5000 QB and winning $20..

Colts Defense isn't "that" scary and Tyrod doesn't have to do much to make his cost worth the chance to throw together a $1 gpp and hope the rest of the group carries it..

 

[jandyt]

Tyrod hype 2015 = Shaun Hill 2014

I'd rather someone kick me in the nuts than go through that #### again.

Agree horrid week 1 last year thanks to using Hill in virtually every lineup. I will probably use Taylor in a GPP or 2 but no cash games.

 

[WhoDat]

Taylor for cash is so tempting ... so tempting ... but salaries are so easy to piece together that I don't find him "must play" and he comes with risk

But ... The damage you can do with him as your starter in building a line-up

160 passing/30 rushing/ PTD/2 INT ... 11.4 pts

God, please don't let me talk myself into that W1 for cash

 

[WhoDat]

V Davis removes Watkins, opinion. Should Colts get up big ... 10-ish ... headed into Q3-Q4 and he is forced to throw ... Could get ugly.

But he only needs 10 points!!!!

Officially intellectually curious

 

[Fantasysports1]

Yes but Sam Bradford can get 20+ and is only 7500. Check ownership percentages and see how highly owned Taylor is.

 

[karmarooster]

Tyrod hype 2015 = Shaun Hill 2014

I'd rather someone kick me in the nuts than go through that #### again.

Just remember last year throwing together a $1 gpp lineup with a $5000 QB and winning $20..

Colts Defense isn't "that" scary and Tyrod doesn't have to do much to make his cost worth the chance to throw together a $1 gpp and hope the rest of the group carries it..

Let's see if we can think of any differences in style of play between Shaun Hill and T-Mobile.... hmmm.... which one is more likely to end up with 50 yards rushing?

50 yards rushing would cover Taylor's salary at 1x. Then 125 yards passing would push him up to 2x. Any TDs (especially a rushing TD) would put him in the GPP-land.

Full Disclosure - I did not roll with Hill last year week 1. Although I did a few dumpster dives to $5k with Clausen (worked out) and Manziel (crashed and burned).

Feeling the following mix at QB:

Taylor

Tannehill (stack with Landry, hedge with Miller in cash games)

Bradford (stack with Jmatt)

Had been preparing to roll out a few cash games with a Rodgers/Lacy hedge, but not feeling Rodgers at all anymore. Between the injuries to his WRs, and Luck going up against a tough defense, this doesn't feel like a good time to use expensive QBs.

 

[Peyton Marino]

Tyrod hype 2015 = Shaun Hill 2014

I'd rather someone kick me in the nuts than go through that #### again.

seems like sound reasoning GB.

 

[Joe T]

Tyrod hype 2015 = Shaun Hill 2014

I'd rather someone kick me in the nuts than go through that #### again.

seems like sound reasoning GB.

Thanks GB. I knew you would agree.

With all the week 1 value at WR and RB, I see no need to go dirt cheap on an unproven QB getting his first start with a head coach that likes to run the ball.

I just remember this thread last year with all the people hyping Shaun Hill. I don't recall a voice of reason stepping in last year and saying, uh, yeah, he is $5k or whatever, but he sucks. I'm trying to be the voice of reason this year.

Could Tyrod blow up? Absolutely. But I'd rather take risks elsewhere. My

 

[Tennessee_ATO]

Last year was my first doing daily so I had a learning curve of course, but my ability and confidence in predictions grew as the season went on. It seems that our data right now is essentially non-existent. We make some assumptions about players and usage based on past years, but at the end of the day we don't really know much about teams yet. I mean, I think Tyrod will struggle mightily, but what if he's pretty good and is able to use the weapons they have? Point is, we don't really know much yet. For those of you who have done this for a few years, how do you manage your bankroll early in the year vs. late?

 

[karmarooster]

Week 1 is kind of like a regular fantasy draft. You can prepare all summer and analyze free agent moves and the NFL draft and coach changes, etc. etc., trying to determine how things will play out. And then by week 3 everything will be different.

I'm approaching Week 1 with cautious optimism, because there's uncertainty about lack of data, but the prices were fixed a while ago leading to some major inefficiencies. I'm also leaning more towards tournaments rather than cash games, whereas in mid-season with more data I'll prefer cash games.

To make a poker analogy, I think week 1 is going to be like early in a tournament or just prior to a cut off, where most people will play more conservatively than usual (trying to wait it out until the pool dwindles on its own). Therefore, take advantage of that and play more aggressively (within reason... there's no bluffing on fanduel, so still sticking to a smaller allocation of bankroll - probably 5-10%).

 

[NixonMask]

Tyrod's appeal is that even if he has a horrible game theres a good chance you will still get value. When Fanduel set his price its clear they though there was a 0% chance he won the starting job. For refrence Kirk Cousins is 6,000, Manziel is 5,900 and even Mallet and Hoyer are both $6500.

 

[Tennessee_ATO]

Tyrod's appeal is that even if he has a horrible game theres a good chance you will still get value. When Fanduel set his price its clear they though there was a 0% chance he won the starting job. For refrence Kirk Cousins is 6,000, Manziel is 5,900 and even Mallet and Hoyer are both $6500.

The real risk with Tyrod (or any other cheapie QB) is the fact that I just don't think you can recover from a total whiff at the QB position even if you just have $5000 invested in it. There are just too many points being scored in that slot by the vast majority of the entrants in every contest. Shaun Hill's 81 yards passing with an interception in week 1 last year can happen to a Tyrod-type. It will never happen (absent injury) to an established "C+" or higher QB.

I rolled with the $5000 guys a lot last year and it usually worked out, but there's real downside risk in the form of destroying your lineup across the board.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

Shaun Hill's 81 yards passing with an interception in week 1 last year can happen to a Tyrod-type. It will never happen (absent injury) to an established "C+" or higher QB.

I don't think it would have happened (absent injury) to Shaun Hill, either.

 

[jandyt]

Shaun Hill's 81 yards passing with an interception in week 1 last year can happen to a Tyrod-type. It will never happen (absent injury) to an established "C+" or higher QB.

I don't think it would have happened (absent injury) to Shaun Hill, either.

While I agree those stats are highly unlikely to happen to any starting QB absent injury. A line like 175 yards and 3 Ints is more likely to happen to Taylor than to a proven starter. Which is why I wont being playing him in cash games regardless of what I end up projecting him at. Just believe his floor is too low for cash games. Now GPP is a different animal and I may play him there although I have only just started my projections for week 1.

 

[snogger]

Shaun Hill's 81 yards passing with an interception in week 1 last year can happen to a Tyrod-type. It will never happen (absent injury) to an established "C+" or higher QB.

I don't think it would have happened (absent injury) to Shaun Hill, either.

While I agree those stats are highly unlikely to happen to any starting QB absent injury. A line like 175 yards and 3 Ints is more likely to happen to Taylor than to a proven starter. Which is why I wont being playing him in cash games regardless of what I end up projecting him at. Just believe his floor is too low for cash games. Now GPP is a different animal and I may play him there although I have only just started my projections for week 1.

The bold part is exactly right.. I won't being using him in any Cash games.. But a couple cheap GPP's will definitely have him.

 

[JonBruin]

Tyrod hype 2015 = Shaun Hill 2014

I'd rather someone kick me in the nuts than go through that #### again.

Why there is a chance that Tyrod flops, I don't think a "flop" will be anywhere near as bad as some think. And I definitely wouldn't let Shawn Hill's week 1 last year dissuade me from playing Taylor as there are several key differences.

1) Hill was going into a game against a really tough Minnesota DEF, which should have been a giant red flag for people. Tyrod is going against a IND D that has not done much to fix their porous secondary or ineffective pass rush.

2) The combined St. Louis QB managed to throw for 273 yards with no weapons at WR. Taylor has Watkins, Woods, and McCoy out of the backfield.

3) Tyrod has extra value as a running QB. Add 40 rushing yards and a rushing TD to the STL QB nightmare that you reference, and you get a top 10 QB on FD.

Additionally, in weeks 1, 2, and 3 last year (where teams are still getting into their rhythm) there were only 6, 4, and 8 QBs that scored over 20 points on FD. And that includes a lot of low ownership guys like Cousins, Davis, Foles, Cutler, and Locker. In short a flop from a 5K QB won't necessarily kill your line up in week 1 as the rest of the field should be more closely clumped together than in mid season.

I won't put Taylor in any cash game lineups, but I will absolutely use him for GPPs. You got to embrace the high variance guys to hit big

 

[Fantasysports1]

IND gets Mathis back, pretty sure that helps their pass rush. I might use Taylor in some cash but it depends on his ownership rate is from the Thurs games.

 

[NixonMask]

They just lost their starting defensive tackle though. This is from an Mike Jones at ESPN

WITHOUT JONES ON THE FIELD

• 257 rushes for 1,201 yards (4.67 yards per rush)
  
• 3.12 yards before contact per rush
  
• 12 rushing TDs (4.7 percent of rushes)
  
• First downs allowed on 26 percent of rushes
  

WITH JONES ON THE FIELD

• 165 rushes for 615 yards (3.73 yards per rush)
  
• 2.15 yards before contact per rush
  
• 2 rushing TDs (1.2 percent of rushes)
  
• First downs allowed on 22 percent of rushes
  

 

[karmarooster]

Who ya got for these toss-ups?

• Lacy vs. CJ Anderson
• Miller vs. Forsett
• Matthews vs. Landry
• Olsen vs. Kelce vs. Bennett

Any other similarly priced players who might be comparable?

 

[NixonMask]

Im worried about all the Dolphins players other than Tannehille this week for cash games. Some of them are going to go off, but its so hard to predict what the distribution % is going to look like right now. So Id take both Forsett and Matthews there. As for the TEs I like them Olson, Bennet, Kelce in that order. As for the RB question I have alot more Lacy than Anderson right now, but I also like Hill alot. He seems like the surest bet of that bunch to see the endzone.

 

[topman]

I also have both Olson and Lacy pegged as Cash game starters also most likely GPP plays. I can see Olson getting 15+ targets week 1 and Lacy easily getting 25 touches this week. What they do with them will decide how well I do this week.

 

[Tennessee_ATO]

Shaun Hill's 81 yards passing with an interception in week 1 last year can happen to a Tyrod-type. It will never happen (absent injury) to an established "C+" or higher QB.

I don't think it would have happened (absent injury) to Shaun Hill, either.

Very true.

But Shaun Hill failed to reach 10 points 3 other times out of his 7 other starts. He hit 20 once in 8 starts and topped 15 in 3/8ths of his starts. And he only had 2 starts @ $5000. Basically he hit "value" in a cash game 4 times, with one of those hitting "value" as a GPP play. That's a consistent losing play no matter how you slice it.