BoltBacker
Footballguy
(shrug) The 2007 season was the best season to be a Charger fan since 1994 imo, but I don't weigh the regular season as heavily as most.bicycle_seat_sniffer said:
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***2015 San Diego Chargers - Offseason News, Notes, & Analysis*** (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter tommyGunZ
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BoltBacker
Footballguy
Who is the source for this? Is it 100% Acee?Bucky86 said:
BoltBacker
Footballguy
So what you are saying is a single data point is difficult to give much credence to unless there is some context. I agree with that and that's why I think it's tough for a lot of us to take, "Well PFF says that player is ranked..." without seeing surrounding data points.Just Win Baby said:
Yeah, according to your link Rivers is ranked #15 in the NFL in terms of failed completions and that is close to Manning, Brees, and Brady. The part you are leaving out is that Rivers/Manning/Brady/Brees, NONE OF THEM, were even in the top 10 of NFL QB's. Kirk Cousins was 4th highest and.... wait for it...... Mark Sanchez was 3rd. Until you realize the stat in your link is pointing at Cousins/Sanchez is being top 5 QB's while Rivers/Manning/Brady/Brees are outside the top 10 it's not obvious to the audience how much weight they should give this advanced metric. Or maybe even many advanced metrics in general.
Tau837
Footballguy
Congrats, you are on the same page as Telesco and McCoy with regard to advanced metrics.
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It's Rivers at his market rate for one year (two if they franchise him) versus Mariota at a below-market rate for five years. Yes, the Chargers would have to throw in something extra.
Tau837
Footballguy
Of course context matters. I would never argue against that. However, IMO you are comparing apples and oranges when suggesting that PFF grades are comparable to this Football Outsiders metric.
PFF uses multiple analysts to watch tape to grade every single play for every individual on the field to come up with their grades, and they incorporate context into the grading process. If you want to learn more about their process, it is described here. I'm sure their process isn't perfect, but I'm not aware of a better or more accurate grading system available to fans.
That is wholly different than taking statistics and applying formulas to yield other statistics, which is what the FO metric is.
Just because failed completions doesn't appear to be valuable for QBs doesn't mean it isn't for other positions. More generally, just because one advanced metric doesn't appear to be valuable doesn't mean other advanced metrics aren't valuable.
As for this metric and Rivers, consider his ranks last season:
7T in 25+ yard completions
8 in passing yards per game
8 in TDs
7 in TD percentage
4 in completion percentage
10 in YPA
So how meaningful can that FO metric really be for Rivers? The completion percentage and YPA ranks reflects a combination of two things that influence that metric: the Chargers under McCoy run a short passing game and the Chargers' lacked dynamic targets in 2014. Having Allen and Gates at his age and reduced physical skills as his top two targets last season would clearly influence that FO metric.
It also has nothing to do with analytics or advanced metrics. It's just scouting.
Analytics is generally pretty stupid for evaluating players, IMO. But it's rather worthwhile for stuff like deciding when to go for it versus punt, when to go for one versus two, etc.
If Rivers' current stance actually influences the Chargers to stay in San Diego, I love what he's doing.
Tau837
Footballguy
I agree, but it's hard to imagine his stance actually being a tipping point for staying. If they were leaning towards staying already, it might cement it, but it's hard to imagine more than that.
BoltBacker
Footballguy
They could franchise Rivers twice at a reasonable rate. Plus, I am not so sure Mariota is as NFL ready as a rookie as a guy like Bridgewater was so I don't think his first year you are going to get much. So really it's three years of a franchise QB at franchise $ or 4 years of... (?) at a cheap salary. Even then doesn't that 5th year option salary depend on where he was drafted? So with a project QB who has never played an NFL offense you may only be getting 3 effective years of cheap qb play.
cstu
Footballguy
The player plays all 4 years at the rookie rate. The 5th year option gives them leverage to re-sign him after the rookie deal is up.
BoltBacker
Footballguy
It's the exact same situation as Vincent Jackson. Acee blathers about players being unhappy, forcing trades, holding all the cards... When the reality is the franchise can just tag the player multiple times.
I have to give Acee credit though. He'll propably get thousands of lines of bs for the paper and he gets to be a talking head as a "Local Charger Insider" for another two(three?) years and nobody pays any attention after the fact whether anything he's spewing actually comes to fruition. Remember all the bogus Vincent Jackson trade scenarios for two solid years?
Most sportswriters seem kind of dumb and lazy but the wider media seems to embrace Acee for being both and never hold him accountable for anything. Must be nice work if you can get it.
One last thing because I can't remind people enough... the interview with Rivers where he announced he was playing out his contract came A DAY after the Big Ben contract. Purely coincidence though. Pure coincidence.
BoltBacker
Footballguy
tommyGunZ
Footballguy
I think if Gurley is there at 17 they have to take him. He's an absolute difference maker on offense, and changes the way defenses have to defend when he is on the field.
I realize I'm in the minority here, but you don't pass on Adrian Peterson to draft an average RT or a NT.
I realize I'm in the minority here, but you don't pass on Adrian Peterson to draft an average RT or a NT.
Tau837
Footballguy
IMO the draft situation is fundamentally different based on the Rivers situation. If the team plans to keep Rivers, Telesco should be structuring a team to win now. If the team plans to trade Rivers and draft Mariotta, Telesco should be planning a longer term rebuild. I know there are those who would say the team should always draft BPA, which suggests that the draft should be the same, regardless. I disagree with that thinking.
BoltBacker
Footballguy
massraider
Footballguy
I will be beyond pissed if the Chargers wind up with Gurley.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Mark IngramI guess I should've added for their original team.Marshawn Lynch. This year.
The trick is, he didn't play for the team that originally drafted him.
Bucky86
Footballguy
?Mark IngramI guess I should've added for their original team.Marshawn Lynch. This year.The trick is, he didn't play for the team that originally drafted him.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
My mistake. Ingram was drafted after that Super Bowl - but I guess Joesph Addai would qualify from that 2009 Super Bowl instead.?Mark IngramI guess I should've added for their original team.Marshawn Lynch. This year.The trick is, he didn't play for the team that originally drafted him.
Gr00vus
Footballguy
So we're to assume the OT or DT they could get at 17 will be average, and Gurley is the next Adrian Peterson? Sorry, not buying it. Side note, Peterson has helped his team win exactly 0 NFL championships to date.
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cstu
Footballguy
It was 2006, Addai's rookie year.My mistake. Ingram was drafted after that Super Bowl - but I guess Joesph Addai would qualify from that 2009 Super Bowl instead.?Mark IngramI guess I should've added for their original team.Marshawn Lynch. This year.The trick is, he didn't play for the team that originally drafted him.
However, he was outplayed by the undrafted Dominic Rhodes in the last 3 games of the playoffs.
cstu
Footballguy
I like Gurley a lot but the bigger issue than talent is injuries. The draft is littered with 1st round RB's who busted not because of their talent but because they got hurt. The Chargers just went through that with Mathews. I have zero doubt Gurley will be a top RB if he stays healthy but it's risky.
Give me Cameron Erving who is more likely to stay healthy and will make everyone else better by solidifying the OL. Then draft Karlos Williams in the 4th round to complement Oliver.
Ramblin Wreck
Footballguy
Why is gurley more likely to get injured than Erving?
Don't agree. Acee is one of the best and most accurate beat writers I've followed the past few seasons. Just because VJAX never got traded does not mean attempts were not made.
I put total trust in Acee on this and yes he does have a good relationship with Rivers. When Acee was asked last week to put the chances of Rivers being he opening day starter in 2015 he put it at 6 on a scale of 1 to 10. That was not hyperbole to me.
In terms of the franchise tagging Rivers they sure can, he can also retire after this season and leave them getting nothing back in return. Some players this might be an idle threat, Rivers is not like most players. So I reject the notion the franchise holds all the cards.
I feel pretty certain the Chargers don't want to lose Rivers and would prefer to sign him to a long term extension but I feel equally certain they understand the landscape right now and are actively pursuing trade options. Does not mean they'll trade him, but really don't have a lot of doubts they are talking to teams and preparing to deal him provided they get back the compensation they seek.
BoltBacker
Footballguy
Acee said over a two year period that Vincent Jackson had played his last game as a Charger, all the while SD just tagged in a ho-hum way as was their right all along. Acee spent two years writing countless articles and going on espn as a local Charger insider milking the media for every drop of publicity despite the fact he was wrong every step of the way.
Suddenly, this "story" completely Acee created pops up. Shocking! Since Rivers is under contract for a year and can be tagged for two there is an opportunity for Acee to draw attention to himself and his terrible articles for the next three years. Do you honestly think it's an accident that this "controversy" ends up with more attention to Acee and his shoddy work?
Of course Rivers is potentially retiring in the next few years. We have been dicussing that in this thread since last year. That is no new revelation and none of us are close friends of Rivers... well except for JWB, I am half convinced he is a family member.
BoltBacker
Footballguy
Chargers would be crazy to trade Rivers....
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2430580-chargers-would-be-crazy-to-trade-philip-rivers
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2430580-chargers-would-be-crazy-to-trade-philip-rivers
cstu
Footballguy
Here are the centers who were drafted in the first round. 16/20 started at least 4 years (80%).
Here are the running backs who were drafted in the first round. 75/163 started at least 4 years (46%).
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
He started in the 2009 Super Bowl as well. It didn't say it had to be for the winning team.It was 2006, Addai's rookie year.My mistake. Ingram was drafted after that Super Bowl - but I guess Joesph Addai would qualify from that 2009 Super Bowl instead.?Mark IngramI guess I should've added for their original team.Marshawn Lynch. This year.The trick is, he didn't play for the team that originally drafted him.
However, he was outplayed by the undrafted Dominic Rhodes in the last 3 games of the playoffs.
BoltBacker
Footballguy
Tau837
Footballguy
Gr00vus
Footballguy
The Chargers management, and to me that mostly means Spanos, need to make some actual, big time decisions. Are they moving or not? Decide and do what's necessary to make that decision work. Are you keeping Rivers? Are you rebuilding? To me those are mutually exclusive decisions. If you're keeping Rivers, you need to commit to doing whatever is necessary to put the Chargers in the Super Bowl within the next 3 years. Otherwise, trade him for picks/talent and do a real rebuild. If you decide to move to L.A. and Rivers says he won't play there, you're either then in rebuilding mode or you're preparing to deal with playing the hold out game. Which, to me, means you should just deal him and rebuild in that scenario.
Here's the problem. Spanos, at least when it comes to the Chargers, seems to be debilitatingly averse to being decisive. He seems to like to wait until he basically has no options and then commits to whatever has been dictated to him. He's reactive, not proactive. It's evident in the way he's handled his GMs and coaches (at least up to now) and in some cases the players as well. So I have little hope that he'll be able to do anything but continue to try to skirt some middle path that ultimately leads to above average at best for the overall team.
Here's the problem. Spanos, at least when it comes to the Chargers, seems to be debilitatingly averse to being decisive. He seems to like to wait until he basically has no options and then commits to whatever has been dictated to him. He's reactive, not proactive. It's evident in the way he's handled his GMs and coaches (at least up to now) and in some cases the players as well. So I have little hope that he'll be able to do anything but continue to try to skirt some middle path that ultimately leads to above average at best for the overall team.
cstu
Footballguy
I don't believe they would be in rebuild mode with Mariota.
In 2016:
- Peyton will likely be retired and maybe the Broncos don't re-sign DT who would cost $15M.
- Jamaal Charles will turn 30
- Mariota will be entering his second year
- Chargers will have an extra $22M to spend on free agents ($10M and $12M savings from not having to franchise Rivers)
BoltBacker
Footballguy
I like the idea of freeing up $, especially for a franchise stuck in the +/-1 game of .500 doldrums for years now, but Mariota doesn't seem all that compelling to me. I really think in the NFL you have to throw into tight windows and it's not just all the shotgun stuff that spooks me, but the entire offense that led to big receiving windows he won't see in the NFL. I just think he's a year away from even being an NFL starter. He will be a competent starter at some point but I don't know if he'll ever approach a franchise type QB.
I think it's important to seperate the desperation that some teams have for a new QB from the actual value of Mariota as a prospect. A lot of teams seem to be running away from past mistakes(CLE, WAS) or trying to distance themselves from someone elses past mistakes(NYJ, BUF, CHI, HOU). There's a huge difference in "We HATE our QB situation... so we are interested in Mariota" and "We LOVE Mariota!".
If Mariota really was a franchise type QB, wouldn't TEN simply draft him? And that's coming from a Mettenberger "fan".
Tau837
Footballguy
WTF are you talking about? Mariotta never took a snap from under center in his career other than kneel downs. I don't know where to find splits for Rivers in college, but he took plenty of snaps under center. He also ran a pro style offense in college, which is not true of Mariotta.
As for shooting craps, that article points out that roughly 50% of QBs drafted within the top 5 picks over the past 25 years have failed. What makes Mariotta a sure thing in your mind?
Yes, that could be a good thing. But they already have roughly $18M in available cap space now, independent of their currently slotted rookie salaries. What do you think will happen if it jumps to $28M?
BoltBacker
Footballguy
I will say that in the past few months as I become more familiar with the draft class I don't think the C position is as bleak as I originally thought after Erving.
Erving is by far the best and has a very, very high potential to be a great C but after that...
3rd ROUND
Grasu
4th ROUND
Finney
Dismukes
5th ROUND
Mason
6th ROUND
Gallick
UFA
Garcia
All those guys would make the team imo, and half of them would push Watt to the bench where he belongs.
BoltBacker
Footballguy
To be fair he has never been given a good OL to work with, but there is no guarantee he will have a good OL to work with moving forward either. Right now it's the 30th best OL in the league with Franklin added to it which helps, but doesn't fix everything.
BoltBacker
Footballguy
A lot of mocks have SD taking Arik Armstead lately. Reyes definitely needs to be replaced but I'm not sure if I understand all the love for Armstead. Not much of a pass rusher, more of a run stuffer. The dreaded "potential" word gets thrown around often. If they really wanted a run stuffing DE couldn't they simply have signed Red Bryant for a year or two for close to the minimum?
What do other people think about Armstead? Armstead vs Erving vs Goldman specifically.
What do other people think about Armstead? Armstead vs Erving vs Goldman specifically.
Ramblin Wreck
Footballguy
Trade up and get Mariota and redo the team with him.
Or be the guy that trades down and collects those 2nd and 3rd round picks. Can get multiple guys on both sides of the line doing that.
Tau837
Footballguy
It seems there are a fair amount of Chargers fans who feel this way. I heard the Cannons talking about him quite a bit this week given the headlines. During one show, they pointed out that it wasn't Rivers' fault that they lost in the playoffs in 2006 (fumbled interception that could have sealed the game) or 2009 (Kaeding 0/3 on FGs), and both of those teams were Super Bowl caliber teams. In the seasons since then, Rivers has been surrounded by average talent at best, complemented by poor coaching until two years ago (when he upgraded to average coaching). Essentially, we can see in retrospect that Rivers was unlucky to land with the Chargers. He probably would have fared better with a lot of other teams.
That said, results are results, and the bottom line is that Rivers doesn't have any rings or major honors to his credit. Yet he has still been one of the top 5-10 QBs in the league over his tenure with the Chargers. Imagine how much worse it would have been over that period if the QB play was merely average, or worse.
Like I have said before, these Chargers fans may soon get what they are wishing for, in which case there are likely at least a couple rebuilding seasons ahead.
Gr00vus
Footballguy
I don't think he does either. I don't know if that's a bad thing if plan B is to use a #2 overall pick on Mariotta. I think Mariotta is a 4 year NFL wash out waiting to happen.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
