This x10. Do not get stuck into whatever strategy you anticipated using. One thing I find very interesting that happens year after year in serious big-money auctions is that there's a curve for activity... the first 4-5 picks, if good players, end up being underpriced, then everyone reacts and the next 20 picks are overpriced, then the next 50 go at value, then there's a ton of very cheap upside players at the end. So I'm usually ready at the outset to get several top players if they are going for value.
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2016 Auction Thread (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Hawkeye21
- Start date
For a standard 12-person league with fast-paced online action they can still last 3-4 hours. I can't imagine how long a live auction would take.
Hawkeye21
Footballguy
If you're doing an auction draft on a site like ESPN or Yahoo they only take up to 2 hours because the timer keeps things moving along. My in-person auction draft can take up to 4 hours because of the BS-ing drinking.
leftcoastguy7
Footballguy
Assume a typical 12 team, $200, PPR auction.
What is your limit on Antonio Brown? $60? $70? I see in Hawkeye's auction he went for $72.
How much is too much for this guy.
What is your limit on Antonio Brown? $60? $70? I see in Hawkeye's auction he went for $72.
How much is too much for this guy.
Hawkeye21
Footballguy
I was willing to pay $66 but was willing to go $68. Once he gets to that point I just have to stop bidding. I can get Julio for $3 to $10 cheaper usually which can mean a lot later in the draft.
Last edited by a moderator:
Hawkeye21
Footballguy
Here's my draft from yesterday. It's another 10 team PPR because I couldn't find a 12 team one that was full.
TEAM SCHERRMAN
2
Odell Beckham Jr., NYG WR
$60
5
Julio Jones, Atl WR
$58
36
Keenan Allen, SD WR
$27
56
Delanie Walker, Ten TE
$8
64
Ryan Mathews, Phi RB
$9
66
Emmanuel Sanders, Den WR
$9
71
Frank Gore, Ind RB
$4
72
Donte Moncrief, Ind WR
$9
80
Matt Jones, Wsh RB
$7
83
Matthew Stafford, Det QB
$1
90
Rashad Jennings, NYG RB
$3
93
Broncos D/ST D/ST
$1
103
Steven Hauschka, Sea K
$1
113
Bilal Powell, NYJ RB
$1
123
Travis Benjamin, SD WR
$1
132
Andy Dalton, Cin QB
$1
TEAM 2
3
Danny Woodhead, SD RB
$3
15
Le'Veon Bell, Pit RB
$50
22
Jordy Nelson*, GB WR
$41
44
C.J. Anderson, Den RB
$22
62
Eric Decker, NYJ WR
$9
63
Tony Romo, Dal QB
$2
67
Eli Manning, NYG QB
$8
69
Philip Rivers, SD QB
$7
70
Jeremy Langford, Chi RB
$7
76
Larry Fitzgerald, Ari WR
$5
79
Arian Foster, Mia RB
$4
82
Jordan Matthews, Phi WR
$6
86
Ameer Abdullah, Det RB
$3
95
Coby Fleener, NO TE
$1
105
Panthers D/ST D/ST
$1
115
Dan Bailey, Dal K
$1
TEAM PATTERSON
9
DeAndre Hopkins, Hou WR
$45
24
Mark Ingram, NO RB
$40
28
Sammy Watkins, Buf WR
$36
33
Blake Bortles, Jax QB
$7
34
Brandin Cooks, NO WR
$31
38
Jordan Reed, Wsh TE
$28
74
DeMarco Murray, Ten RB
$4
94
Marvin Jones, Det WR
$1
104
Justin Forsett, Bal RB
$1
114
Vincent Jackson, TB WR
$1
124
Charles Sims, TB RB
$1
133
Markus Wheaton, Pit WR
$1
140
C.J. Prosise, Sea RB
$1
146
Martellus Bennett, NE TE
$1
151
Raiders D/ST D/ST
$1
155
Chandler Catanzaro, Ari K
$1
TEAM BRISCESE
4
Adrian Peterson, Min RB
$58
29
Eddie Lacy, GB RB
$34
39
Jonathan Stewart, Car RB
$27
43
Andrew Luck, Ind QB
$14
46
Matt Forte, NYJ RB
$22
54
Jeremy Hill, Cin RB
$15
57
Drew Brees, NO QB
$11
59
Tom Brady, NE QB
$10
89
Travis Kelce, KC TE
$2
102
Torrey Smith, SF WR
$1
112
Willie Snead, NO WR
$1
122
Tevin Coleman, Atl RB
$1
131
Devin Funchess, Car WR
$1
139
James Starks, GB RB
$1
145
Cardinals D/ST D/ST
$1
150
Josh Brown, NYG K
$1
TEAM COWBOYS
6
Todd Gurley, LA RB
$58
7
Mike Evans, TB WR
$37
13
T.J. Yeldon, Jax RB
$3
16
Rob Gronkowski, NE TE
$46
17
DeAngelo Williams, Pit RB
$19
26
Demaryius Thomas, Den WR
$26
92
Tyler Lockett, Sea WR
$2
107
Derrick Henry, Ten RB
$1
117
Laquon Treadwell, Min WR
$1
126
Isaiah Crowell, Cle RB
$1
135
Will Fuller, Hou WR
$1
141
Antonio Gates, SD TE
$1
147
Jimmy Graham*, Sea TE
$1
152
Graham Gano, Car K
$1
156
Marcus Mariota, Ten QB
$1
158
Patriots D/ST D/ST
$1
TEAM MICHALSKI
8
Ezekiel Elliott, Dal RB
$57
20
Allen Robinson, Jax WR
$43
21
Cam Newton, Car QB
$25
27
Thomas Rawls, Sea RB
$31
31
Amari Cooper, Oak WR
$30
41
Seahawks D/ST D/ST
$1
61
Stephen Gostkowski, NE K
$1
88
Duke Johnson Jr., Cle RB
$4
101
Corey Coleman, Cle WR
$1
111
Derek Carr, Oak QB
$1
121
Julius Thomas, Jax TE
$1
130
Jordan Cameron, Mia TE
$1
138
Darren Sproles, Phi RB
$1
144
Dorial Green-Beckham, Ten WR
$1
149
Packers D/ST D/ST
$1
154
Blair Walsh, Min K
$1
I LIKE CHILDREN
1
Antonio Brown, Pit WR
$68
35
LeSean McCoy, Buf RB
$28
45
Kelvin Benjamin, Car WR
$17
49
Dion Lewis*, NE RB
$16
55
Jarvis Landry, Mia WR
$16
58
Jeremy Maclin, KC WR
$16
75
Michael Floyd, Ari WR
$6
81
Allen Hurns, Jax WR
$4
84
Melvin Gordon, SD RB
$4
85
DeSean Jackson, Wsh WR
$4
87
Michael Crabtree, Oak WR
$3
96
Giovani Bernard, Cin RB
$2
99
Gary Barnidge, Cle TE
$1
109
Tyrod Taylor, Buf QB
$1
119
Bengals D/ST D/ST
$1
128
Justin Tucker, Bal K
$1
TEAM ZIEGLER
23
Carson Palmer, Ari QB
$11
25
Brandon Marshall, NYJ WR
$40
30
Alshon Jeffery, Chi WR
$32
40
Carlos Hyde, SF RB
$24
42
T.Y. Hilton, Ind WR
$21
47
Russell Wilson, Sea QB
$15
50
Greg Olsen, Car TE
$16
52
Doug Baldwin, Sea WR
$14
60
Latavius Murray, Oak RB
$13
68
Golden Tate, Det WR
$8
100
Sterling Shepard, NYG WR
$1
110
LeGarrette Blount, NE RB
$1
120
Theo Riddick, Det RB
$1
129
Michael Thomas, NO WR
$1
137
Chiefs D/ST D/ST
$1
143
Mason Crosby, GB K
$1
TEAM EDIN
11
Doug Martin, TB RB
$46
12
Devonta Freeman, Atl RB
$44
14
Dez Bryant, Dal WR
$52
19
Lamar Miller, Hou RB
$41
73
Kirk Cousins, Wsh QB
$2
78
John Brown, Ari WR
$5
108
Zach Ertz, Phi TE
$1
118
Jay Ajayi, Mia RB
$1
127
Ladarius Green*, Pit TE
$1
136
Devontae Booker, Den RB
$1
142
Zach Miller, Chi TE
$1
148
Jets D/ST D/ST
$1
153
Mike Wallace, Bal WR
$1
157
Phillip Dorsett, Ind WR
$1
159
Kendall Wright, Ten WR
$1
160
Matt Prater, Det K
$1
JIM KELLYS HEROES
10
David Johnson, Ari RB
$43
18
A.J. Green, Cin WR
$46
32
Jamaal Charles*, KC RB
$34
37
Aaron Rodgers, GB QB
$21
48
Julian Edelman, NE WR
$16
51
Randall Cobb, GB WR
$9
53
Ben Roethlisberger, Pit QB
$9
65
Tyler Eifert*, Cin TE
$6
77
DeVante Parker, Mia WR
$6
91
Josh Gordon*, Cle WR
$2
97
Kevin White, Chi WR
$2
98
Stefon Diggs, Min WR
$2
106
Chris Ivory, Jax RB
$1
116
Tavon Austin, LA WR
$1
125
Texans D/ST D/ST
$1
134
Adam Vinatieri, Ind K
$1
TEAM SCHERRMAN
2
Odell Beckham Jr., NYG WR
$60
5
Julio Jones, Atl WR
$58
36
Keenan Allen, SD WR
$27
56
Delanie Walker, Ten TE
$8
64
Ryan Mathews, Phi RB
$9
66
Emmanuel Sanders, Den WR
$9
71
Frank Gore, Ind RB
$4
72
Donte Moncrief, Ind WR
$9
80
Matt Jones, Wsh RB
$7
83
Matthew Stafford, Det QB
$1
90
Rashad Jennings, NYG RB
$3
93
Broncos D/ST D/ST
$1
103
Steven Hauschka, Sea K
$1
113
Bilal Powell, NYJ RB
$1
123
Travis Benjamin, SD WR
$1
132
Andy Dalton, Cin QB
$1
TEAM 2
3
Danny Woodhead, SD RB
$3
15
Le'Veon Bell, Pit RB
$50
22
Jordy Nelson*, GB WR
$41
44
C.J. Anderson, Den RB
$22
62
Eric Decker, NYJ WR
$9
63
Tony Romo, Dal QB
$2
67
Eli Manning, NYG QB
$8
69
Philip Rivers, SD QB
$7
70
Jeremy Langford, Chi RB
$7
76
Larry Fitzgerald, Ari WR
$5
79
Arian Foster, Mia RB
$4
82
Jordan Matthews, Phi WR
$6
86
Ameer Abdullah, Det RB
$3
95
Coby Fleener, NO TE
$1
105
Panthers D/ST D/ST
$1
115
Dan Bailey, Dal K
$1
TEAM PATTERSON
9
DeAndre Hopkins, Hou WR
$45
24
Mark Ingram, NO RB
$40
28
Sammy Watkins, Buf WR
$36
33
Blake Bortles, Jax QB
$7
34
Brandin Cooks, NO WR
$31
38
Jordan Reed, Wsh TE
$28
74
DeMarco Murray, Ten RB
$4
94
Marvin Jones, Det WR
$1
104
Justin Forsett, Bal RB
$1
114
Vincent Jackson, TB WR
$1
124
Charles Sims, TB RB
$1
133
Markus Wheaton, Pit WR
$1
140
C.J. Prosise, Sea RB
$1
146
Martellus Bennett, NE TE
$1
151
Raiders D/ST D/ST
$1
155
Chandler Catanzaro, Ari K
$1
TEAM BRISCESE
4
Adrian Peterson, Min RB
$58
29
Eddie Lacy, GB RB
$34
39
Jonathan Stewart, Car RB
$27
43
Andrew Luck, Ind QB
$14
46
Matt Forte, NYJ RB
$22
54
Jeremy Hill, Cin RB
$15
57
Drew Brees, NO QB
$11
59
Tom Brady, NE QB
$10
89
Travis Kelce, KC TE
$2
102
Torrey Smith, SF WR
$1
112
Willie Snead, NO WR
$1
122
Tevin Coleman, Atl RB
$1
131
Devin Funchess, Car WR
$1
139
James Starks, GB RB
$1
145
Cardinals D/ST D/ST
$1
150
Josh Brown, NYG K
$1
TEAM COWBOYS
6
Todd Gurley, LA RB
$58
7
Mike Evans, TB WR
$37
13
T.J. Yeldon, Jax RB
$3
16
Rob Gronkowski, NE TE
$46
17
DeAngelo Williams, Pit RB
$19
26
Demaryius Thomas, Den WR
$26
92
Tyler Lockett, Sea WR
$2
107
Derrick Henry, Ten RB
$1
117
Laquon Treadwell, Min WR
$1
126
Isaiah Crowell, Cle RB
$1
135
Will Fuller, Hou WR
$1
141
Antonio Gates, SD TE
$1
147
Jimmy Graham*, Sea TE
$1
152
Graham Gano, Car K
$1
156
Marcus Mariota, Ten QB
$1
158
Patriots D/ST D/ST
$1
TEAM MICHALSKI
8
Ezekiel Elliott, Dal RB
$57
20
Allen Robinson, Jax WR
$43
21
Cam Newton, Car QB
$25
27
Thomas Rawls, Sea RB
$31
31
Amari Cooper, Oak WR
$30
41
Seahawks D/ST D/ST
$1
61
Stephen Gostkowski, NE K
$1
88
Duke Johnson Jr., Cle RB
$4
101
Corey Coleman, Cle WR
$1
111
Derek Carr, Oak QB
$1
121
Julius Thomas, Jax TE
$1
130
Jordan Cameron, Mia TE
$1
138
Darren Sproles, Phi RB
$1
144
Dorial Green-Beckham, Ten WR
$1
149
Packers D/ST D/ST
$1
154
Blair Walsh, Min K
$1
I LIKE CHILDREN
1
Antonio Brown, Pit WR
$68
35
LeSean McCoy, Buf RB
$28
45
Kelvin Benjamin, Car WR
$17
49
Dion Lewis*, NE RB
$16
55
Jarvis Landry, Mia WR
$16
58
Jeremy Maclin, KC WR
$16
75
Michael Floyd, Ari WR
$6
81
Allen Hurns, Jax WR
$4
84
Melvin Gordon, SD RB
$4
85
DeSean Jackson, Wsh WR
$4
87
Michael Crabtree, Oak WR
$3
96
Giovani Bernard, Cin RB
$2
99
Gary Barnidge, Cle TE
$1
109
Tyrod Taylor, Buf QB
$1
119
Bengals D/ST D/ST
$1
128
Justin Tucker, Bal K
$1
TEAM ZIEGLER
23
Carson Palmer, Ari QB
$11
25
Brandon Marshall, NYJ WR
$40
30
Alshon Jeffery, Chi WR
$32
40
Carlos Hyde, SF RB
$24
42
T.Y. Hilton, Ind WR
$21
47
Russell Wilson, Sea QB
$15
50
Greg Olsen, Car TE
$16
52
Doug Baldwin, Sea WR
$14
60
Latavius Murray, Oak RB
$13
68
Golden Tate, Det WR
$8
100
Sterling Shepard, NYG WR
$1
110
LeGarrette Blount, NE RB
$1
120
Theo Riddick, Det RB
$1
129
Michael Thomas, NO WR
$1
137
Chiefs D/ST D/ST
$1
143
Mason Crosby, GB K
$1
TEAM EDIN
11
Doug Martin, TB RB
$46
12
Devonta Freeman, Atl RB
$44
14
Dez Bryant, Dal WR
$52
19
Lamar Miller, Hou RB
$41
73
Kirk Cousins, Wsh QB
$2
78
John Brown, Ari WR
$5
108
Zach Ertz, Phi TE
$1
118
Jay Ajayi, Mia RB
$1
127
Ladarius Green*, Pit TE
$1
136
Devontae Booker, Den RB
$1
142
Zach Miller, Chi TE
$1
148
Jets D/ST D/ST
$1
153
Mike Wallace, Bal WR
$1
157
Phillip Dorsett, Ind WR
$1
159
Kendall Wright, Ten WR
$1
160
Matt Prater, Det K
$1
JIM KELLYS HEROES
10
David Johnson, Ari RB
$43
18
A.J. Green, Cin WR
$46
32
Jamaal Charles*, KC RB
$34
37
Aaron Rodgers, GB QB
$21
48
Julian Edelman, NE WR
$16
51
Randall Cobb, GB WR
$9
53
Ben Roethlisberger, Pit QB
$9
65
Tyler Eifert*, Cin TE
$6
77
DeVante Parker, Mia WR
$6
91
Josh Gordon*, Cle WR
$2
97
Kevin White, Chi WR
$2
98
Stefon Diggs, Min WR
$2
106
Chris Ivory, Jax RB
$1
116
Tavon Austin, LA WR
$1
125
Texans D/ST D/ST
$1
134
Adam Vinatieri, Ind K
$1
Mr. Irrelevant
IBL Representative
You can't really answer that question in a vacuum (which is one of the things I love about auctions). It depends on a number of factors - like roster sizes, lineup requirements, other owners' tendencies, and at what point in the draft he's been put up for bid.
In general, though, this question should really be two questions: "what premium should AB command over the other stud WR1s?" and "how much am I willing to pay for a stud WR1?" The first question is easier as it comes down to personal preference: myself, I'd maybe pay $3-4 extra for AB over OBJ or Julio. Your answer might be $10, or $0.
But the second question is the more important one. Getting sucked into paying a huge premium for any one player because "I hadda get my guy" is a far more catastrophic mistake in an auction than a snake draft - one bad overpay can literally wreck your entire auction. Feel free to go in intending to pay top dollar for a "stud WR1" or even for a top-3 WR ... but don't be that guy chasing Brown up to $73 when you could have had OBJ for $55.
Hawkeye21
Footballguy
This is why it's important to do a few mocks before your draft. The first one I did this year I wanted some top WRs but felt they were too expensive. Towards the end of the draft I found myself with a ton of money and no one else did. I was able to buy whoever I wanted to but I could've afforded them with less. I looked at the draft results and looked at how much AB a Julio went for, then I looked at the other players I could have gotten with the amount of money I had left. I found that I still could have gotten a lot of the players I had already drafted and there were plenty of other affordable guys that I liked.
This gave me confidence that I could spend a lot to grab my two favorite guys and still have enough to buy other players I liked. Just have to be willing to wait for the middle of the draft to afford them.
This gave me confidence that I could spend a lot to grab my two favorite guys and still have enough to buy other players I liked. Just have to be willing to wait for the middle of the draft to afford them.
abbottjamesr
Footballguy
This is really a great post and very true.
Grouping players into tiers is more important in auctions than snake drafts imo, and you have to rank the guys where you like them not just were concensus is. I have 8 guys that I think are elite this year. I want one of them on my team and it doesn't really matter which one I get to me. I don't want to pay more than $55 to get that 1 stud. Brown is one of my 8 so I am assuming I wont have him on my team this year. I got him last year for $54 and he was my one stud.
If you decide Brown is worth 65-70 you are really making a decision upfront about how your team is going to be constructed and it my paint you into a corner depending how your draft goes. My experience has been to be as flexible as possible and try not to get hung up on certain guys. In the past I have gotten obsessed with guys that were such a good "value", ended up passing on some better players at good prices only to have to overpay to get my value guy. If I had teirs in place I would have taken the other guys and hoped the value guy fell to me.
Hawkeye21
Footballguy
This is exactly what happened to me in a couple years. I got way too caught up on value that I never had a true stud and had a bunch of pretty good players. I got stuck with trying to figure out which players to start each week and was never able to trade any of them. I was good enough to make the playoffs but couldn't get far enough.
Hawkeye21
Footballguy
Got caught up at work so today I was able to finish my first draft of my player auction values for my league. There will be some slight change before my draft next saturday but for now I feel I have a pretty close view of what the majority of players are going to go for. I love this time of year so much.
CalBear
Footballguy
I actually find that the best value comes in the middle of the auction. If you're bidding on the last good player left at a position, you're going to have to overpay, because someone will be willing to blow their wad on him. The best values come when most people have at least one or two good players already, but there are still enough left on the board that they're willing to be complacent.
Hawkeye21
Footballguy
Here is a great article that covers that.
http://www.thefantasyfootballauction.com/2016-fantasy-football-auction-horseshoe-effect/
Hawkeye21
Footballguy
Got a question for you auction lovers. When you have a plan that you would like to stick in order to get your favorite players, what do you do when a decent player is going for way under value? Do you bid on him to hoping to get the price up and risk taking him or do you just let someone get a steal? This happened to me with Gronk last year.
This may be my biggest internal struggle right now. Part of me hates taking a guy I really didn't want all that much which forces me to miss out on other players but part of me would feel bad if I let someone get a great deal while I may be over paying for a guy I wanted more.
Thoughts?
This may be my biggest internal struggle right now. Part of me hates taking a guy I really didn't want all that much which forces me to miss out on other players but part of me would feel bad if I let someone get a great deal while I may be over paying for a guy I wanted more.
Thoughts?
CalBear
Footballguy
If you know your league mates well, sometimes you can bid to enforce value. Our league bids in 25-cent increments, and looking at our past results, $x.25 and especially $x.75 almost never win the auction. If you know a particular guy's tendency to love the top TE, you can maybe bid him up. But in general, I'd say don't bid on anyone unless you know you'd want them at that price. You can't get married to your favorites or to a particular plan (what if your favorite goes for 25% over your price for him?), but you also don't want to get stuck with someone you don't really want.
Hawkeye21
Footballguy
I thought I got Gronk for a great deal as I got him for $2 cheaper than what I thought he should go for. That amount can make a big difference in my mock. I felt decent about it until I saw Olsen go for $17 less. Gronk just wasn't worth that much more last year and it really killed the rest of my draft.
CalBear
Footballguy
$2 savings is only good value if you want the guy. $17 is another story. Sometimes it seems like an auction is dying out early, and adding a new bid in will goose it up another $5 or more. But if looking at an expensive player who's just a shade under my target, I'd avoid him unless he fits into the overall plan.
Hawkeye21
Footballguy
I think I had Gronk valued at $25 last year and he was at $22. I didn't want to see another player that wanted him going that cheap so I bid $23 hoping that he would bid again. I got stuck with him for $23 but wasn't too upset until I saw where the rest of the TEs were going. Almost all of them were going for under $10. Almost felt sick to my stomach after seeing Olsen go that cheap but it could have been the bar hopping before the draft too.
Mr. Irrelevant
IBL Representative
Yeah, you really don't want to get caught price-enforcing on the studs (unless your plan was to get a stud at that position and you don't already own one). It seems like every year someone in one of my auctions wins an expensive player early at around fair value, sees bidding on a similar-level player stall out for $8 or $10 less, jumps in figuring he'll just drive up the price, and then get stuck with a second expensive guy he couldn't really afford.
If you got a top-level guy but didn't get him at a discount, them's the breaks. Don't compound the error by trying to ensure no one else gets a bargain just because you didn't.
dkp993
Footballguy
My goal is always value not players. I work really hard not to want or not want a player. Every player is on the board for me at the right price. I tend to adopt the 75% rule and bid up pretty much everyone to that price point ( based on my value sheet). I've ended up with many players over the years that might have been on my not draft list this way but have represented great value so they're worth it. It's paid off time and time again for me.
Hawkeye21
Footballguy
I believe I spent some good money on DT so I was pretty well stuck after him and Gronk.
Hawkeye21
Footballguy
I've done that and really not liked my teams though. I look at my team at the end of the draft and all I see is a bunch of average to slightly above average players. My bench is great but I just don't get excited about it. Hoping to grab three studs this year.
dkp993
Footballguy
Sure. But that's not my entire draft strategy, It's just a part of it. You're right if you stick to that solely you get a very average team. I'm more of a studs and duds guy so I often target tier 1 players and pay for them. But I'm always on the lookout for value to supplement.
Yeah. My auction league rarely has anyone go for over 50, but the top tiers at each position end up compressed. I come out guns blazing there.
Mr. Irrelevant
IBL Representative
That always sounds like a good strategy going in, but I've found it hard to pull off.
Unless you get a screaming bargain on one of the studs, you're going to drop about $175 total, leaving you $25 to fill maybe 12-13 additional roster slots. You can still build a great team that way, but IMO you have to get pretty lucky hitting on the right $1 and $2 guys.
I'd rather buy the equivalent of two 1st-rounders and a 3rd-rounder and leave myself $50 or so in the bank. By definition you'll still have above-average talent at the top, but that extra $25 gives you a lot more flexibility to grab 4th- and 5th-round values going for half their AAV (like Olsen above), rather than having to fill the rest of your roster with a couple of 8th/9th-rounders and a whole bunch of dart throws.
Hawkeye21
Footballguy
My league is different than most so it's possible for me. I have $100 to buy 10 players. I could possibly spend $75 of that on 3 guys and the other $25 on the rest.
I've done a lot of configuring and based on my projected auction values I could get some stud players spending $30, $25, $20, $15, $5 and the rest would be $1 each. I could draft Julio, AJ Green and Allen Robinson.
Mr. Irrelevant
IBL Representative
HFS, if the other owners would actually let you get away with that strategy, please PM me the next time there's an opening in your league.
Hawkeye21
Footballguy
What are they going to do about it other than spend more. This is the beauty of an auction draft. I may even go for AB and Julio for my first two guys. It would cost me about $60 for the two combined. Then I could still grab someone like Jarvis Landry for $15 as my WR3.
Mr. Irrelevant
IBL Representative
Well, yeah, that's kinda exactly what they should be doing. If I were in an auction where 1st-round guys were consistently going for 25% or less of my bankroll, I'd party 'til the money literally ran out. Trade my first 10 picks for four 1st-rounders and six 10th-rounders? Where do I sign up?
Hawkeye21
Footballguy
In my league $33 is about the most money spent on a player. There are only about 5 players that will go for $30 or more. There are about 9 RBs that sell in the $20s and 8 WRs that sell in the $20s. Trust me, I have all the data from the last 5 years on how everyone spends.
The great thing about my league is that it's 24 teams so there are two separate 12 team drafts. That's double the data for me to evaluate each year. It's interesting to see how the play prices can change between each draft in the same year.
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Ketamine Dreams
Footballguy
Hawkeye21
Footballguy
Yes. We have $100 to draft 10 players. The remainder 6 roster spots are picked in a snake draft to speed things up.
Mr. Irrelevant
IBL Representative
That should be driving the cost of the top-end players up, not down. For one thing, you've got more money to spend on fewer roster slots; for another, you don't have to worry about running yourself dry and having to fill 2/3 of your roster via the $1 scrap heap - you're effectively guaranteed an 11th- through 16th-round pick no matter what.
In my experience, the top 5 guys in most standard (16- or 17-man roster) auctions usually go for around 32-35% of the cap, and about a dozen guys ("the first-rounders") will cost at least 25%. IMO, the ABs of the world should be going for no less than $40 in your format, and under no circumstances should you be getting 1st-round talent for less than $30. If they're averaging more like $33 and $22 respectively, I'd nab the four best players I could for $94 total and six dollar menu specials, and laugh all the way to the title game.
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Hawkeye21
Footballguy
Well, I've researched our league's drafting habits for the last 5 years and with two drafts each year that gives me 10 drafts worth of data to look at. The most money I've ever seen spent on a player was $35. Only the elite players at RB and WR go for $30 or more. Looking at the end of the auction I've notice that not a lot of guys go for $1, only about 15-20 total.
Below I posted the results of the top 20 RBs taken in my draft last year. As you can see the most expensive player was Charles for $33. These results are very typical every year.
Jamaal Charles
33
Adrian Peterson
30
Le'Veon Bell
30
Eddie Lacy
29
Marshawn Lynch
28
Matt Forte
27
DeMarco Murray
25
C.J. Anderson
24
Justin Forsett
23
Jeremy Hill
22
LeSean McCoy
20
Lamar Miller
19
Melvin Gordon
17
Mark Ingram
16
Alfred Morris
15
Frank Gore
15
Latavius Murray
15
Carlos Hyde
12
T.J. Yeldon
10
Joseph Randle
10
CalBear
Footballguy
It seems pretty likely that your league is under-valuing top players, then. Which might be because they're looking at magazines which expect your $100 to cover your whole roster. If you can get Antonio Brown, ODB, and Todd Gurley for less than $93, and fill out the rest of the roster with cheap players, you'll dominate. The #1 RB is worth way more than three times as much as the #20 RB.
Hawkeye21
Footballguy
The problem with spending that much in this league is that not many other people are. Which means there are not many decent players to be had for $1. Most of the players at the end of the auction part of the draft are going for $2 and $3. Like I said earlier, out of 1200 players being bought only about 15 are going for $1.
One strategy I've been going back and forth on is not buying a QB or TE at all and just buying 5 RBs and 5 WRs. I have the first pick in the snake portion of the draft and figured I'd just grab my QB then.
Mr. Irrelevant
IBL Representative
But in reality, it doesn't matter all that much how many players are going for $1 - you're still going to get 6-7 of them regardless. Let's take the worst case scenario and assume that literally only your seven guys go for $1 at the very end of the auction.
Then the question becomes: would you trade your first 10 rounds' worth of picks for, let's say, 1.01 (Brown), 1.03 (Julio), 1.04 (Gurley/DJ), and 10.06 through 10.12? And the answer is: only if you like money. Fantasy football is a game of studs, and you'll have more and better ones than anyone else. And this is a true worst-case; you might wind up with a couple 7th-rounders instead of 10th-rounders at the end, either because you saved a couple of bucks on the studs or others ran out of cash as well and didn't want to go to $2 in the late stages.
As to your second question, I think I mentioned upthread that I wouldn't punt both positions. If you happen to save a couple bucks in the early stages of the auction, I'd spend it on a $4 Fleener or Walker rather than settle for an 11th-round Clay or Walford. Feel free to punt QB; the gap between #5 and #13 at the position is so narrow that it's probably not worth wasting any auction dollars on, especially since you have the first pick in the snake.
CalBear
Footballguy
If you spend $93 on your first three, you're guaranteed to get seven for $1. Plus six more by draft. So let's say your seven are the worst seven of the 1200; the bottom of the 10th round. That will give you:
QB: Kirk Cousins
WR: ODB, A.Brown, S.Coates
RB: T.Gurley, Deandre Washington
TE: Zach Ertz
Bench:
WR: Willie Snead
RB: Charcandrick West, CJ Prosise
Plus the guys you draft in rounds 11-16.
If you prefer RBs, throw out ODB and put in A.Peterson instead. Those are worst-case scenarios. You could also nab someone like LeGarrette Blount at RB, Stefon Diggs at WR, or Philip Rivers at QB depending on how the auction goes. Once you have that kind of star power up top it's not hard to fill out a roster.
Hawkeye21
Footballguy
That looks about right. I've been putting together a bunch of scenarios that range from what you just posted to a more spread out team with players $25 and below. I'm not sure what I like more.
I love the idea of having two of the top 3 WRs and then a couple mid tier RBs like Bernard and Duke. This would allow me to get a few guys that are worth more than $1.
I'm getting really pumped for this draft. Can't wait.
thanks for posting the auction draft data. im debating my strategy for this season. i tend to go more studs and duds approach. last year i spent 84% of my budget on julio, obj, forte and gore. i got ridiculously lucky on my cheap players (cam $3, freeman $3, john brown $5) and ended up with a dominate team after a few trades.
there seems to be great value for the low end wr1 and high end wr2's this year. i might draft 1 elite wr and 1 elite rb and be happy spending 30-40% less than elite pricing on the keenan allen, landry etc types.
there seems to be great value for the low end wr1 and high end wr2's this year. i might draft 1 elite wr and 1 elite rb and be happy spending 30-40% less than elite pricing on the keenan allen, landry etc types.
abbottjamesr
Footballguy
The crazy thing is this year Forte, Gore and J. Brown are all cheaper than last year and I dont see much difference in their projections.
I agree that Allen is too low this year and also Marshall. Last year I snagged Hopkins in low WR1 high WR2 tier and I think Allen is this years Hopkins.
I also think there is some great value in the late RB1's such as Anderson and McCoy.
I cant personally spend more than 30% on one guy in an auction so I probably wont get Brown, Jones, or OBJ this year or Peterson, Gurley or DJ. So I'm hoping to get a couple of my lower tier one guys in the 25-27% range (Miller, Charles, Green) and pair them with the mid level RB's and WR's a mentioned above.
I'm in my second year of auction. Last year in a 225$ I spent 62 on adp, 45 on Julio, 45 on Gronk, 28 on Ingram, and ? On Brandon Cooks. I won going away and a couple of the 12 have promised to copy my strategy. I still think I try to get a top rb and WR but if things get too high right away does anyone have advice for how I should proceed? I.e. The top guys are all over priced.
Go DC Yourself
Footballguy
Another consideration is deciding your auction strategy is the quality of free agents throughout the season, and your ability to snag them. The greater the number of free agents you can count on getting, the more you want to spend on stars.
ThePassion
Footballguy
Are there any articles or resources to try and get a feel for who some $1 type Auction Guys I should expect if I try to go all out and leave myself grabbing $1 guys at the end of the auction? I'd like to base it off actual auctions versus just looking at the very bottom of the VBD excel sheet or the bottom of the projections....
matuski
Footballguy
Use ADP... the last 3 rounds or more should be $1 guys. However, every draft is different.. for example we have several guys who specifically hold on $4-6 in order to get the $1 guys they want (for $2-3 each).
ThePassion
Footballguy
Simple enough, I like it thanks.
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
Great posts in here. Couple more notes:
- I really don't feel the need to dump my whole budget anymore, the players I want are the players I want.
- There are opportunities with Bell, Brady & Gordon suspended this year to get discounts.
- It seems most people follow the pattern of spending most of their budget on their starting 7, anyone have real success in spreading it out more across the whole roster? I suppose on practicality that's really a recipe for mediocrity though.
- I really don't feel the need to dump my whole budget anymore, the players I want are the players I want.
- There are opportunities with Bell, Brady & Gordon suspended this year to get discounts.
- It seems most people follow the pattern of spending most of their budget on their starting 7, anyone have real success in spreading it out more across the whole roster? I suppose on practicality that's really a recipe for mediocrity though.
