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2019 College football thread - It's 2020, yo. Go to the new thread. (3 Viewers)

Bama will be the pick there. I’d bet on it. 
Then the committee has literally just told the rest of the country that Championship games are meaningless.  They won't do that just to assuage Bama.  Bama got pulverized AT HOME.  That defense is atrocious. This is not a typical Bama team and we all saw it. 

 
Bama v Duke was a result of a conference-level deal.  I don't know the details but it was dictated to some degree.  No excuse, but if it was forced, I'm the SEC i'm ending that deal immediately.

 
Bama v Duke was a result of a conference-level deal.  I don't know the details but it was dictated to some degree.  No excuse, but if it was forced, I'm the SEC i'm ending that deal immediately.
I can’t foresee any way the ACC could force the SEC into that matchup. Furthermore, why would the ACC want to do that? Clemson/FSU/Miami/Va Tech would all have been more appealing matchups on paper and likely on the field. Why would the ACC want to run its 13th/14th best football program out there to be pulverized on opening day? 

 
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I can’t foresee any way the ACC could force the SEC into that matchup. Furthermore, why would the ACC want to do that? Clemson/FSU/Miami/Va Tech would all have been more appealing matchups on paper and likely on the field. Why would the ACC want to run its 13th/14th best football program out there to be pulverized on opening day? 
I don't know details and agree some odd choices...part of a 3 year deal that included FSU and Louisville.

 
Then the committee has literally just told the rest of the country that Championship games are meaningless.  They won't do that just to assuage Bama.  Bama got pulverized AT HOME.  That defense is atrocious. This is not a typical Bama team and we all saw it. 
I think they already told us those games are meaningless - they want the four best teams.  In my scenario I think it's an easy argument to say Bama > Oregon.

I'm not sure I agree with them being pulverized when they lost by 5 to potentially the best team in the country.  Their defense is definitely subpar compared with previous years though - although it's hard for me to believe that it's any worse than several other top-10 teams.

 
Whoooooole lot of teams would have given up 45 to LSU. How many would Oregon have been hit for? Oklahoma? Those teams would get lit up like a Christmas tree also. 

 
It's November. There will be chaos. There always is chaos. Probably this weekend. Yes, the SEC can get 2 teams in. And that hypothetical picture will be a lot clearer come December. 
this is so true.

one of the other top teams will fall.  Bama will win its last 3 games and get in.  book it

 
Bama over Auburn is absolutely no lock...don't like everyone just assuming that's so.  The AU D is really good and there are some big holes for Gus to try to exploit offensively.

 
this is so true.

one of the other top teams will fall.  Bama will win its last 3 games and get in.  book it
Booking anything is a fool's errand in this game, which is why I love it. Sure, there's a lot of chalk. But the surprises are generally out of left field. Just to throw some scenarios out there, I think it's equally as likely Bama loses to Auburn then Georgia beats LSU. I'd also be surprised if LSU shows up this week. They may win anyway because Ole Miss is just that bad, but we've all seen crazier. And as @bigmarc27 mentioned, Georgia hasn't been that impressive - they go to Auburn Saturday and could eliminate themselves then...even if they bounce back to win a conference championship next month.

I get it, if this isn't the talking point then what is? This game though - it is pure chaos, and you can't predict chaos.

 
For example, if Oregon wins out and Bama destroys Auburn, who do you take - Oregon or Bama where the one common opponent beat Oregon but lost to Bama?
I think the context of the Oregon loss matters - they were missing all/most of their WR corps, played like it, still almost won that game anyway, and it was week 1.

I also think how each of those teams play over the next month matters, but as of right now I think Oregon is playing from ahead - even though the rankings don't currently show it.

 
The CFP talk is a lot of deja vu.   I usually root for end of year chaos, but the most chaos might be caused if all the favorites win out this year. 

 
If Oregon beats Utah that's as good as anything Bama has an opportunity to do. They played Auburn in August, they can explain that common opponent away just fine. They are not going to bend over backwards to get Bama in. The Utes are winning and winning easily, if they win out it's a slam dunk for them to be in, won't even be a real discussion. 

 
If the top 8 all win out (regular season), what does the playoff look like?

I cut it off before Penn State because they cant win out if Ohio State wins out. 

 
If the top 8 all win out (regular season), what does the playoff look like?

I cut it off before Penn State because they cant win out if Ohio State wins out. 
Well, that's impossible, but:

Clemson

LSU/Georgia winner

Ohio State/Minnesota winner

Oregon/Utah winner

 
What a shocking development. I don't think anyone could have seen this coming - 

Ohio State announced Chase Young will sit one more game, this weekend against Rutgers, and will be eligible for the Penn State and Michigan games.
I'm shocked.

 
Well, that's impossible, but:

Clemson

LSU/Georgia winner

Ohio State/Minnesota winner

Oregon/Utah winner
I said the regular season, but fair enough. 

ETA: I was not considering the regular season to include championship games. 

 
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Do we blame LSU?  Is this conversation different if LSU beats Bama by 2 or more scores?

Dammit LSU, you had 1 2 jobs.  :angry:  

 
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This argument is just nonsense - sorry GB.

Every conference has cupcakes on the schedule.  And the SEC had teams play ND, Oregon, Texas and Clemson OOC this season and that’s just top of head.

I’m no SEC lover but they are the dominant league and it’s not really close IMO.  But who cares - I don’t root for a league, I root for a team.

As for Duke, they definitely aren’t great but they are decent - been bowling a lot since Cutcliffe got there.  I’m fine with folks having Bama outside of the top-4 if it comes down to it but let’s wait until we get to that point before we bury them - I think they need help to get back in it but not much.  
I think the Big 10 is fairly close but don't disagree that the SEC is the best league and has been for quite some time now. However, I'm not sure how much that really matters when you evaluate Bama since they're not going to play either UF or UGA. The SEC in a weird way puts them at a disadvantage with only 8 conference games and one fixed rival in the other division who hasn't been good for a long time. They really need to rethink their intra-conference scheduling, I've seen proposals out there that would be huge improvements over what they do now, and would allow every player to visit each stadium in the conference at least once over any given four year period. It's so wonky right now. 

 
I think the Big 10 is fairly close but don't disagree that the SEC is the best league and has been for quite some time now. However, I'm not sure how much that really matters when you evaluate Bama since they're not going to play either UF or UGA. The SEC in a weird way puts them at a disadvantage with only 8 conference games and one fixed rival in the other division who hasn't been good for a long time. They really need to rethink their intra-conference scheduling, I've seen proposals out there that would be huge improvements over what they do now, and would allow every player to visit each stadium in the conference at least once over any given four year period. It's so wonky right now. 
Saban will let the SEC revisit the scheduling issues once Tennessee is good again.  Assuming he's still alive of course.

 
If Oregon beats Utah that's as good as anything Bama has an opportunity to do. They played Auburn in August, they can explain that common opponent away just fine. They are not going to bend over backwards to get Bama in. The Utes are winning and winning easily, if they win out it's a slam dunk for them to be in, won't even be a real discussion. 
Lol ok. 
 

Oregon doesn’t get a chance to explain away anything. It’s not court. 

 
Yea, I think that secret is out unless you are playing a great team. 
Right, so if 10-1 Oregon plays 10-1 Utah, the winner will go to the playoffs.  This isn't complicated. 

Of the 20 teams to qualify for the playoffs, only 2 were not conference champions.  2016 Ohio State was 10-1 with their only close loss to PSU who had 2 losses already and wasn't going to qualify as the Big10 champs (then got beat by USC in the Rose Bowl for 3 losses on the season).   And there's no need to rehash how the SEC got Georgia and Bama both in two years ago, but just in case our memories are waning, Big10 Champ OSU had two losses including a blowout loss to Iowa and Pac12 Champ USC had two losses, one of them a dismal beatdown by Notre Dame.  2 of 20.  10%.  And the reasons were clear why the committee eschewed conference champions both times.  

So, I know you're willing to bet on this; so am I.  If Oregon and Utah both run the table and square off for the Pac12 Championship, I'm willing to wager with you that the winner will go to the playoffs over Alabama, assuming LSU, Clemson and Ohio State have all punched their ticket.  Fair?  Name the stakes (or even steaks :) )

 
Lol ok. 
 

Oregon doesn’t get a chance to explain away anything. It’s not court. 
I'm talking about the committee. They can easily justify putting Oregon in over Bama despite the fact that they have a common opponent who beat Oregon but lost to Bama. This isn't science, it's a bunch of old dudes in a room, they can come up with whatever they want. 

 
I think they already told us those games are meaningless - they want the four best teams.  In my scenario I think it's an easy argument to say Bama > Oregon.

I'm not sure I agree with them being pulverized when they lost by 5 to potentially the best team in the country.  Their defense is definitely subpar compared with previous years though - although it's hard for me to believe that it's any worse than several other top-10 teams.
Dude, it was 33-13 at halftime and were it not for a meaningless 80 yard bomb by Bama at the end, it's a bigger differential.  The nation has now witnessed Bama's mighty defense crumble on primetime twice to QBs with NFL futures.  Joe Burrow had his way with them.  Trevor Lawrence made it look like child's play.

 
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I think the context of the Oregon loss matters - they were missing all/most of their WR corps, played like it, still almost won that game anyway, and it was week 1.

I also think how each of those teams play over the next month matters, but as of right now I think Oregon is playing from ahead - even though the rankings don't currently show it.
Fair, I just think it's an "easy" argument to make if Bama beats Auburn soundly - Oregon lost to a team Bama pounded that has 3 losses while Bama lost to potentially the #1 team in the country.  I'm not sure how much other arguments matter beyond that (at least in this scenario).

 
What a shocking development. I don't think anyone could have seen this coming - 

Ohio State announced Chase Young will sit one more game, this weekend against Rutgers, and will be eligible for the Penn State and Michigan games.
Shocking to whom?  It should've been three games if not the death penalty.

 
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Dude, it was 33-13 at halftime and were it not for a meaningless 80 yard bomb by Bama at the end, it's a bigger differential.  The nation has now witnessed Bama's mighty defense crumble on primetime twice to QBs with NFL futures.  Joe Burrow had his way with them.  Trevor Lawrence made it look like child's play.
I'm no Bama apologist and I agree their defense was bad in both those games.  :shrug:

But I don't think saying they lost to 2 NFL QBs that are surrounded by top-5 talent/athletes necessarily helps the idea that their defense is atrocious.  I still think if Bama thumps Auburn and it's either them or Oregon that Bama gets in.  Just my thought on it and I don't have a vote.

 
If the top 8 all win out (regular season), what does the playoff look like?

I cut it off before Penn State because they cant win out if Ohio State wins out. 
Minnesota is an underdog at Iowa this weekend, where they've not won in over a decade.  The'll be at best a pick-em against Wisconsin in the season finale.  Honestly, the game in between at Northwestern is a dangerous trap for the Gophers as well.  I've got Minnesota finishing the season on an 0-3 run.

 
I'm no Bama apologist and I agree their defense was bad in both those games.  :shrug:

But I don't think saying they lost to 2 NFL QBs that are surrounded by top-5 talent/athletes necessarily helps the idea that their defense is atrocious.  I still think if Bama thumps Auburn and it's either them or Oregon that Bama gets in.  Just my thought on it and I don't have a vote.
Well, we don't really know the caliber of their defense because between Clemson and LSU, Alabama's schedule has been pockmarked by lackluster teams piloted by guys who will likely never play in the NFL (unless you're a Kellen Mond believer, and I for one am not).  But when Alabama has squared off against future Sunday players, they get throttled.  



 

 
To be clear I’m not defending Bama and would prefer to see Oregon, I’m just being realistic. 
I understand and I would think LSU would be favored by 10 or more against Oregon, but this is shaping up to be a year where it'll be harder to get 2 teams in from the SEC.  IMO.  Obviously, a lot can change.  Utah could lose to UCLA and then beat Oregon and then I'll be forced to shut up.

 
Minnesota is undefeated in a P5 conference and beat a top 10 team and is ranked. . . 8th behind 4 one loss teams, three of which have 0 top 25 wins.

Baylor is undefeated in a P5 conference and beat two top 25 teams and is ranked. . . 13th behind 2 teams with 2 losses.

 
Fair, I just think it's an "easy" argument to make if Bama beats Auburn soundly - Oregon lost to a team Bama pounded that has 3 losses while Bama lost to potentially the #1 team in the country.  I'm not sure how much other arguments matter beyond that (at least in this scenario).
I intentionally kept what I wrote in the past tense. If Alabama dominates Auburn (and Mississippi State) then that goes under consideration. That's just one if-then scenario though. There's dozens of other if-then situations still to play out, including what Oregon does between now and Dec 7. As of Nov 13 I think Oregon is playing from ahead, but that's different than controlling your own destiny. I don't think they do.

 
Minnesota is an underdog at Iowa this weekend, where they've not won in over a decade.  The'll be at best a pick-em against Wisconsin in the season finale.  Honestly, the game in between at Northwestern is a dangerous trap for the Gophers as well.  I've got Minnesota finishing the season on an 0-3 run.
I think they have a better shot at going 3-0 than 0-3, but I also think their actual path is somewhere in between. I'll be surprised if they win this weekend. I want them to, but this is the sort of spot Iowa seems to always feast on.

 
Minnesota is an underdog at Iowa this weekend, where they've not won in over a decade.  The'll be at best a pick-em against Wisconsin in the season finale.  Honestly, the game in between at Northwestern is a dangerous trap for the Gophers as well.  I've got Minnesota finishing the season on an 0-3 run.
I'm with you before and after Northwestern but the are pretty bad this year.  If they lose that game then it's not a good look for Penn State.  I still think OSU is pretty comfortably the best team in that conference. 

 
Minnesota is undefeated in a P5 conference and beat a top 10 team and is ranked. . . 8th behind 4 one loss teams, three of which have 0 top 25 wins.

Baylor is undefeated in a P5 conference and beat two top 25 teams and is ranked. . . 13th behind 2 teams with 2 losses.
Once Minnesota won in double OT at Fresno the path was clear to 8-0. A pile of home games against bad teams with two road games against also terrible opponents - Purdue and Rutgers. Credit where credit's due for last weekend. Now some big tests lie directly in front of them. And if they beat them then they won't be 8th anymore.

Baylor gets their legitimacy test this weekend. They are now where Minnesota was last weekend. The road wins over Kansas State and Oklahoma State become a whole lot more noteworthy if paired with a win over Oklahoma. A loss and you see why this team went down to the wire against TCU, Texas Tech, West Virginia, and winless Rice.

 
Minnesota is undefeated in a P5 conference and beat a top 10 team and is ranked. . . 8th behind 4 one loss teams, three of which have 0 top 25 wins.

Baylor is undefeated in a P5 conference and beat two top 25 teams and is ranked. . . 13th behind 2 teams with 2 losses.
Mac_32 addressed this well already, but all you really need to do is turn to Vegas to see what their thoughts are.  

Undefeated in a P5 conference and fresh off a victory of a top 10 team is.....a 3 point underdog to 6-3 Iowa. :mellow:

Meanwhile, undefeated Baylor with wins over Kansas State and Oklahoma State (assuming those are the top 25 teams you cite) is.....a 10 point underdog to OU.

Vegas is TELLING you that Baylor and Minnesota are over-ranked and over-rated.  Baylor's non-conference schedule is inexcusable.  You would have thought they learned from this in the past, but here we are....

 
Saban will let the SEC revisit the scheduling issues once Tennessee is good again.  Assuming he's still alive of course.
We go this every year too...Saban is the one pushing the ‘visit every stadium’ angle and expansion to 10 conference games...including voting (against LSU, UGA and UF) on record.

 
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You don't have to have a conference championship to get in over someone that does, but you have to have an obviously better resume than the conference champ to get in over them.

Even if Bama wins out their argument will be that they are 1-1 against ranked teams and their best win is against an 8-4 or 9-3 team.

If the committee has any ability to set aside the value of a team name for even a minute that is not the kind of resume that should put them in over a conference champ with the same record as them.

 
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As an aside for all the talk about the SEC being the tougher conference I actually think this is one of the years where that helps Alabama the least.  Usually the thing that makes the SEC strong is that there are 8-10 good teams and playing in the conference affords Alabama a bunch of quality wins.  This year there are 5 good teams in the conference, of which Alabama plays 2, and the rest are pretty much junk.

Florida and Georgia being in the SEC has no bearing on Alabama since they didn't play them.  Then the question becomes is playing Texas A&M, Mississippi St, Ole Miss, and Arkansas any more difficult than playing USC, Washington, Wash St, and Arizona State?  I would say not and if anything I would say the latter is a tougher group of games.

 
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Minnesota is an underdog at Iowa this weekend, where they've not won in over a decade.  The'll be at best a pick-em against Wisconsin in the season finale.  Honestly, the game in between at Northwestern is a dangerous trap for the Gophers as well.  I've got Minnesota finishing the season on an 0-3 run.
If you know anything about PJ Fleck, the gophers or not susceptible to a trap game.

It’s certainly not a gimme at Iowa, but past history doesn’t mean a damn thing.

 
As an aside for all the talk about the SEC being the tougher conference I actually think this is one of the years where that helps Alabama the least.  Usually the thing that makes the SEC strong is that there are 8-10 good teams and playing in the conference affords Alabama a bunch of quality wins.  This year there are 5 good teams in the conference, of which Alabama plays 2, and the rest are pretty much junk.

Florida and Georgia being in the SEC has no bearing on Alabama since they didn't play them.  Then the question becomes is playing Texas A&M, Mississippi St, Ole Miss, and Arkansas any more difficult than playing USC, Washington, Wash St, and Arizona State?  I would say not and if anything I would say the latter is a tougher group of games.
:goodposting:

 

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