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2019 Draft Points/Grades by division AFC SOUTH done (1 Viewer)

Bracie Smathers

Footballguy
Non-traditional grades in form of points awarded by focusing in on two things.  Rare blue-chip player and extending past rookie contract/cap. 

  1. If the player's talent projects to multiple Pro Bowls and at least one All Pro season
  2. If the player's talents projects to the team extending them past  rookie deal
Point total explanation (If a player gets awarded Pro Bowl pts they do not also get pts for being a starter and visa versa)

1) 4 to 7 points for a multiple Pro Bowl and  at least one All Pro player with bonus of 8-10 for a QB/premium position, i.e., rare blue-chip player

2) 1-3 points if player is expected to get an extension past 5 years (less than half of 1st round pick get extended) 

3) Negative points - if a team traded picks/players for a drafted player/picks, i.e., compensating/factoring the cost of acquiring or trading picks/players

Other factors, need 'reasonably expected' to be filled by player - bonus pt if player fills dire need - complimentary fit to scheme/coaches/other players - projected starter but not star - talent that fell but was deemed too good to pass up even if their was no or little need and/or was not a good fit - aggregate points awarded to unknown potential mostly for late picks that 'could' start or flash in limited role - premiere position/pri+me cap position - if team traded player for picks or traded picks for more/future picks = all 1 point each

AFC East

Buffalo Bills
Draft picks: Houston DT Ed Oliver (No. 9 overall); Oklahoma OT Cody Ford (No. 38); Florida Atlantic RB Devin Singletary (No. 74); Mississippi TE Dawson Knox (No. 96); Florida LB Vosean Joseph (No. 147); Miami S Jaquan Johnson (No. 181); North Carolina A&T Edge Daryl Johnson (No. 225); Boston College TE Tommy Sweeney (No. 228)
DT Ed Oliver - projects as  a multi Pro Bowl with 'possibly' at least one All Pro season 6 pts + 3 pts expected extension + fills need 1 pt + 1 pt fits scheme = 11 pts
ROT/OG Cody Ford  2 pts reasonably expected to sign extension + 1 pt fills dire need + 1 pt compliments protecting/more production from 2nd yr QB Josh Allen + 1 pt talent fell he projected in many mocks as 1st round talent -.5 pt for trading 5th rnd pick to move-up = 4.5 pts
Rest of draft - 1 pt scheme fit + 1 pt potential = 2 pts

Point total = 16.5 points

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Miami Dolphins
Draft picks: Clemson DT Christian Wilkins (No. 13 overall); Wisconsin OG Michael Deiter (No. 78); Wisconsin LB Andrew Van Ginkel (No. 151); Ohio State OT Isaiah Prince (No. 202); Auburn FB Chandler Cox (No. 233); Washington RB Myles Gaskin (No. 234)
DT Christian Wilkins - 3 pts should get extension + 1 pt need + complimentary fit + 1 pt starter = 5 pts

* (trade) QB Josh Rosen - 1 pt need + 1 pt projected starter + 1 pt talent too good to pass up + 1 pt aggregate untapped potential + 1 pt bonus net trade talent + net positive 1 pt for trading down picking up extra picks and then trading for Rosen = 6 pts

Rest of draft - 1 pt need + 1 pt aggregate potential = 2 pts

Point total = 13 points 

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New England Patriots
Draft picks: Arizona State WR N'Keal Harry (No. 32 overall); Vanderbilt CB Joejuan Williams (No. 45); Michigan DE Chase Winovich (No. 77); Alabama RB Damien Harris (No. 87); West Virginia OT Yodny Cajuste (No. 101); Arkansas OG Hjalte Froholdt (No. 118); Auburn QB Jarrett Stidham (No. 133); Maryland DE Byron Cowart (No. 159); Stanford P Jake Bailey (No. 163); Mississippi CB Ken Webster(No. 252) 
WR N'Keal Harry - 1 pt extension + 1 pt fills need + 1 pt bonus dire need + 1 pt projected starter = 4 pts 
DE Chase Winovich - 1 pt extension + 1 pt need + 1 pt fit + 1 pt talent that fell +  1 pt starter 1 pt potential = 6 pts
RB Damien Harris - 1 pt talent + 1 pt potential = 2 pts

Rest of draft - Cajuste was nice but not as enthralled with Joejuan and already padded Winowich with points so rest of draft gets - 1 pt talent + 1 pt potential = 2 pts

Point total = 14  points

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New York Jets
Draft picks: Alabama DT Quinnen Williams (No. 3 overall); Florida OLB Jachai Polite (No. 68); USC OT Chuma Edoga (No. 92); West Virginia TE Trevon Wesco (No. 121); Minnesota LB Blake Cashman (No. 157); Rutgers CB Blessuan Austin (No. 196)
DT Quinnen Williams - 7 pts multiple  Pro Bowls plus at least one All Pro season anticipated (max for non-premium position) + 3 pts extension + 1 pt need + 1 pt complimentary player + 1 pt starter = 13 pts BPA of draft
OLB Jachai Polite- 1 pt talent that fell + 1 pt potential + 1 pt scheme = 3 pts 
Rest of draft - 1 point potential = 1 pt + 1 pt potential - 2 pts for the 2nd round pick given up last year to acquire QB Sam Darnold = 0 pts
Point total = 16 pts

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Bills got a gift in Ed Oliver

Miami may have gotten a steal in Josh Rosen.  Great maneuvering by Miami for a change. 

I will get to more as I can.  Add comments and I may change point totals but Belichick has admitted himself that he/the Pats have not been good evaluating WRs and I'm not blown away by N'Keal but luv Chase.  The Pats had a ton of picks so they wound up with more points than I expected.  

This is only for things directly tied to this draft so the Jets got boo coupe pts for BPA of the draft and had pts  taken away for dealing this year's 2nd for package of picks needed to move-up for last year's QB so that was pts taken away.  Note, no points for FA signings of LeVeon or CJ Mosley since this is strictly draft points. 

Once again this point/grading system is based on the fact that teams only extend HALF of the rookie deals so focus was on blue-chip talent and players who 'likely' will be extended and the high value/memorable names who might still on the team who drafted them in 5 years. 

 
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This is an intriguing way to look at draft choices. I think its got some merits, but it seems to kind of be slanted against day 3 guys, who outkick their draft spots. 

I bring this up, because New England, and especially New York got some potentially great players beyond the picks you mentioned. Guys like Hjalte Froholdt and Blake Cashman, look like future starters who have 2nd contract potential to me. I like all those guys more than Damien Harris or Jachai Polite. 

 
An interesting read and a good effort. I will forever and a day suggest that the time to evaluate a draft is 5 years after they were completed . . . not 5 days. But where would the fun be in that?

One thing that I have found interesting of late is seeing multiple articles at how poorly the Patriots have drafted over the past 5 years. Yet they have been to 4 of the past 5 Super Bowls. Once in a while they will draft a player that becomes and All Pro, but most of the time they get decent players that fill their roles and expectations. When they do hit a home run, they may not re-sign him or will trade him. It's also harder to find a projected All Pro when you are usually picking after 30 players have come off the board (or when you don't have a first round pick). The way things have evolved, an All Pro on a rookie contract is like winning the lottery . . . until you have to shell out $100 million to re-sign him.

The draft is only one piece of a gigantic puzzle. Like always, there will certainly be early picks from this draft that fizzle and are duds, and there will be later round guys that exceed expectations and light it up.

 
NFC East

Dallas Cowboys
Draft picks: UCF DT Trysten Hill (No. 58 overall); Penn State OG Connor McGovern (No. 90); Memphis RB Tony Pollard (No. 128); Miami CB Michael Jackson (No. 158); Miami DE Joe Jackson (No. 165); Texas A&M S Donovan Wilson(No. 213); Ohio State RB Mike Weber (No. 218); Oregon Edge Jalen Jelks (No. 241)
*(trade) WR Amari Cooper - 6 pts for multiple Pro Bowls (should hit) + 2 pts for contract extension (he's only 24 and his contract is due when he should still be in his prime) + 1pt for need + 1 pt complimentary add  to Dak's production - 2 pts for pick traded to acquire Amari = 8 pts
Rest of draft - 1 pt. for at least one potential starter + 1 pt fit + 1 pt complimentary value + 1 pt unknown potential = 4 pts

Point total = 12 points

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New York Giants
Draft picks: Duke QB Daniel Jones (No. 6 overall); Clemson DT Dexter Lawrence (No. 17 overall); Georgia CB Deandre Baker (No. 30 overall); Old Dominion DE Oshane Ximines (No. 95); Notre Dame CB Julian Love (No. 108); Wisconsin LB Ryan Connelly (No. 143); Auburn WR Darius Slayton (No. 171); Washburn CB Corey Ballentine (No. 180); Kentucky OT George Asafo-Adjei (No. 232); Syracuse DT Chris Slayton (No. 245) 
QB Daniel Jones - 1 pt starter + 1 pt fits scheme + 1 pt premiere position + 1 pt unknown potential = 4 pts
DT Dexter Lawrence - 2 pts extension + 1 pt starter + 1 pt fit + 1 pt complimentary player + 1 pt unknown potential = 6 pts
CB Deandre Baker - 2 pts extension + 1 pt starter + 1 pt fit + 1 pt premiere position + 1 pt complimentary player = 6 pts
Rest of draft - 1 pt fit + 1 pt unknown potential (Xmines) - 8 pts trading away multiple Pro Bowl & All Pro WR OBJ in his prime (age 26) to acquire Dex - 1 pt to move up for DeAndre + 3 pts for Peppers who is included in the OBJ deal with the extra 3rd round pick factored into this number.

Point total = 12 points

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Philadelphia Eagles
Draft picks: Washington State OT Andre Dillard (No. 22 overall); Penn State RB Miles Sanders (No. 53); Stanford WR J.J. Arcega-Whiteside (No. 57); Penn State DE Shareef Miller (No. 138); Northwestern QB Clayton Thorson (No. 167) 
OT Andre Dillard - 4 pts potential multiple Pro Bowl player - 2 pts contract extension - 1 pt fit + 1 pt need + 1 pt complimentary player - 1 pt for low cost traded draft picks = 7 pts
RB Miles Sanders - 1 pt potential starter +1 pt fit + 1 pt unknown potential = 3 pts 
Rest of draft - I like Arcega-Whiteside but not a lot else - 1 pt starter + 1 pt fit + 1 pt + potential = 3 pts

Point total = 13 points
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Washington Redskins
Draft picks: Ohio State QB Dwayne Haskins (No. 15 overall); Mississippi State OLB Montez Sweat (No. 26 overall); Ohio State WR Terry McLaurin (No. 76); Stanford RB Bryce Love (No. 112); Indiana OG Wes Martin (No. 131); Alabama C Ross Pierschbacher (No. 153); North Carolina LB Cole Holcomb (No. 173); North Carolina State WR Kelvin Harmon (No. 206); James Madison CB Jimmy Moreland (No. 227); Oklahoma Edge Jordan Brailford (No. 253)
QB Dwayne Haskins - 4 pts for multiple Pro Bowl player +2 pts premiere position and value + 3 pts extension = 9 pts
OLB Montez Sweat - 6 pts multiple Pro Bowl player + 2 pt extension - 2 pts cost to move up = 6 pts
Rest of draft - 1 pt starter + 1 pt fit + 1 pt unknown potential = 3 pts
Point total = 18 pts

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Cooper was a Pro Bowl add so the 1st round pick has already provided results and should continue to pay off.  Their are rumors of a long-term extension in the works and I think they will get it done, bonus for already getting a Pro Bowl year.  I have seen high alphabetical grades posted for the actual drafted players but on the five year numerical scale I don't see sure-fire extensions which means a low grade.  

The Giants did better than expected since I don't have Daniel Jones getting any Pro Bowls without an extension but he plays a premiere position and has unknown potential.  I like Dex better than most draft pundits, same with DeAndre who plays a premiere position.  

The Eagles made a judicious trade-up for Dillard and were still able to adequately address RB in the 2nd round but were selecting late but still had a solid point scale draft.

Washington got a gift when  Haskins fell into their lap. I like him and think he will be a long term answer to their QB issue. Sweat can be a fantastic value provided his heart checks out but a second-round pick to move-up makes him a value.  Lots of later flyers and McLaurin is interesting and could turn into a starter.  Haskins alone is good but Sweat can make this draft great.

 
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AFC South

Houston Texans
Draft picks: Alabama State OT Tytus Howard (No. 23 overall); Kentucky CB Lonnie Johnson (No. 54); Northern Illinois OT Max Scharping (No. 55); San Diego State TE Kahale Warring (No. 86); Texas DE Charles Omenihu (No. 161); Central Michigan CB Xavier Crawford(No. 195); Texas A&M RB Cullen Gillaspia (No. 220)
OT Tytus Howard - Philly stole their OT they reached.  1 pt starter for an FCS level player in the first on a Combine guy + 1 pt fit + 1 pt unknown potential = 3 pts
CB Lonnie Johnson - 1 pt fit + 1 pt unknown potential = 2 pts
OT Max Scharping1 pt fit  + 1 pt unknown potential =2 pts
Rest of draft - 1 pt fit + 1 pt unknown potential = 2 pts 

Point total = 9 points

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Indianapolis Colts
Draft picks: Temple CB Rock Ya-Sin (No. 34 overall); TCU OLB Ben Banogu (No. 49); Ohio State WR Parris Campbell (No. 59); Stanford LB Bobby Okereke (No. 89); Michigan State S Khari Willis (No. 109); USC S Marvell Tell (No. 144); Tarleton State LB E.J. Speed (No. 164); Mississippi State Edge Gerri Green (No. 199); Utah OT Jackson Barton (No. 240); Ole Miss OL Javon Patterson (No. 246)
CB Rock Ya-Sin -  1 pt extension + 1 pt starter + 1 pt fit + 1 pt unknown potential + 2 pts for picking up a 2nd round pick next year = 7 pts
WR Parris Campbell - 1 pt Pro Bowl 'potential' + 1 pt extension + 1 pt starter + 1 pt fit + 1 pt unknown potential = 5 pts
Rest of draft - 1 pt fit + 1 pt unknown potential - 2 pts cost moving all the way down from #26 to #46 = 0 pts 
Point total = 12 points

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Jacksonville Jaguars
Draft picks: Kentucky DE Josh Allen (No. 7 overall); Florida OT Jawaan Taylor (No. 35); Josh Oliver(No. 69); Murray State LB Quincy Williams (No. 98); Temple RB Ryquell Armstead (No. 140); Washington State QB Gardner Minshew (No. 178); Auburn DT Dontavius Russell (No. 235) 
DE Josh Allen - 4 pts Pro Bowl and an All Pro + 3 pts extension + 1 pt talent falling to them + 1 pt premium position = 9 pts 
OT Jawaan Taylor - 2 pts Pro Bowl +2 pts extension + 3 pts talent falling + 1 pt fit - 1 pt cost to move-up - 2 pts med red flag knee = 6 pts
Rest of draft - 1 pt fit + 1 pt unknown potential = 2 pts 

Point total = 16 points

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Tennessee Titans
Draft picks: Mississippi State DT Jeffery Simmons (No. 19 overall); Mississippi WR A.J. Brown (No. 51); Charlotte OG Nate Davis (No. 82); Iowa S Amani Hooker (No. 116); Georgia OLB D'Andre Walker (No. 168); West Virginia LB David Long Jr. (No. 188)
DT Jeffery Simmons3 pts Pro Bowl + 1 pt All Pro + 2 pts extension + 4 pts value - 1 pt cost of waiting yr - 1 pt med red flag ACL = 8 pts 
WR A.J. Brown - 1 pt starter + 1 pt fit + 1 pt unknown potential = 3 pts 
Rest of draft - 1 pt fit + 1 pt unknown potential = 2 pts

Point total = 12 points

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Houston got sniped by Philly and reached for a 2nd round talent for a guy who does not project as a Pro Bowl talent or a type to receive an extension.  Double dipping with Sharping helps to assure at least one starter at area of need but DeShuan needs help/protection now not a developmental player.  

The Colts dropped further than I realized and lost out on getting a player who would have a better shot at being a Pro Bowler or getting an extension.

Jacksonville was set to take a different player but then Josh Allen fell into their lap and they should benefit with a Pro Bowler and potential All Pro who will likely receive an extension.  Jawaan could be a huge hit if his knee checks  out and it really did not cost all that much to move-up.  

Titans lose a year waiting and that hurts a 9-7 team on the cusp of the playoffs and the ACL with a big/heavy guy like Simmons means he should not test that surgery this year.  Brown does not have a lot in front of him so if he has the ability he 'should' win a starting job in time.

 
3 pts talent falling

I disagree with you using this.  Basically you're double dipping by giving pts for pro-bowls and because a player dropped.  Does talent falling make the player any better or the team better than if they had drafted him without the fall?  If value fell then other teams took inferior players so you have already accounted for the better draft by marking down the teams that passed on the player.  You didn't mark down the Giants Jones pick -1 for talent passed up.

Really like what you are doing here but you need to decide if you are grading what a team ended up with or what they ended up essentially "pro-rated" for draft position.  If it's that later, just adjusted every team based on their 1-32 on the front end and be done with it.

 
3 pts talent falling

I disagree with you using this.  Basically you're double dipping by giving pts for pro-bowls and because a player dropped.  Does talent falling make the player any better or the team better than if they had drafted him without the fall?  If value fell then other teams took inferior players so you have already accounted for the better draft by marking down the teams that passed on the player.  You didn't mark down the Giants Jones pick -1 for talent passed up.

Really like what you are doing here but you need to decide if you are grading what a team ended up with or what they ended up essentially "pro-rated" for draft position.  If it's that later, just adjusted every team based on their 1-32 on the front end and be done with it.
The pre-draft rankings are made without information of off-field or interpersonal information gleaned from team interviews and the people making pre-draft rankings do not have critical medical information which comes out after the draft.  The information that gave them high pre-draft ratings have been available so it is well known.  A player may get taken higher than expected for many reasons and a player rated high will drop.

Jawaan Taylor was consistently rated high and his tape showed he can play OLT but and he began being mocked consistently in the top-ten picks.  Last year the two tackles who could play OLT were taken much higher than expected in a top-loaded draft where they had not been mocked that high.  OTs who can play OLT are highly valued.  Jawaan fell due to his knee.  The top-two reasons why highly rated prospects fail are off-field and medical issues.  He may have a serious issue with his knee but I do not think that is the case or he would have plummeted down the board.  I think the Jags got a steal and he will play at a high level over the next five years which is what this point system is based.

IOWs I think he has a knee issue that may hinder him this year but his top-ten talent will show over the next five years.  It is how we will look at this draft in five years so it is awarding points now for what will pan out in five years so giving high points for a 'rare' top-ten talent that fell (but not too far which would show a serious issue) is a unique situation and needs special grading.

 

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