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2019 Free Agent Signing Thread (2 Viewers)

zamboni said:
Interesting - that's not bad coin these days for RBs not named Bell. Still cheap insurance  in case Guice is not fully ready or doesn't meet expectations.

In terms of strong RB free agents, unless I'm missing someone, it seems like only Coleman is still out there. My guess is that he goes to Philly.
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Cheap insurance for what?  They are not going anywhere next year and have far bigger needs than at backup RB for a team that opponents will likely stack the box against given their lack of talent in the passing game.  They could have picked up someone cheaper or drafted someone that would serve as a backup.  Hell, Crowell was just dumped by the Jets and would be a solid back that wouldn't be much of a dropoff from ADP and wouldn't take that much to sign.  It just sort of strikes me that having a relatively expensive backup at RB for a team is the football equivalent of the baseball team that is bottom of the division but has a lights out closer.  Just a bit of a waste of resources. 

 
Pro Football Focus has a free agent tracker which includes each player's 2018 PFF grade and number of snaps played. Pro Football Logic also has player ratings.

I decided to throw together a formula using each of those numbers to estimate how much each FA should be worth. I made 2 estimates for each player, one based on his 2018 PFF grade and one based on his Pro Football Logic rating. On the whole these estimates line up reasonably well with the FA contracts that we've seen.

Here are the 25 most overpaid players among this year's free agents in amount per year, where I credited each player with whichever estimate was more optimistic (so these are the guys that both PFF and PFLogic were down on):

Salary    Pos     Player           Team
$13.5M/yr    LB    Kwon Alexander    SF
$22M/yr    QB    Nick Foles    JAC
$16.5M/yr    EDGE    Za'Darius Smith    GB
$14M/yr    S    Landon Collins    WAS
$13.8M/yr    T    Donovan Smith    TB
$12M/yr    EDGE    Dante Fowler Jr.    LAR
$7M/yr    T    Greg Robinson    CLE
$12.3M/yr    DI    Sheldon Richardson    CLE
$11.1M/yr    C    Mitch Morse    BUF
$16.5M/yr    T    Trent Brown    OAK
$7.3M/yr    G    Ty Nsekhe    BUF
$13.1M/yr    HB    Le'Veon Bell    NYJ
$7M/yr    LB    Preston Brown    CIN
$6.3M/yr    G    Jamon Brown    ATL
$7M/yr    G    Billy Turner    GB
$13.5M/yr    LB    Anthony Barr    MIN
$4.5M/yr    T    Seantrel Henderson    HOU
$6.3M/yr    TE    Tyler Kroft    BUF
$7.5M/yr    CB    Robert Alford    ARI
$4.5M/yr    DI    Jordan Phillips    BUF
$11M/yr    WR    Tyrell Williams    OAK
$4.8M/yr    G    Ty Sambrailo    ATL
$4M/yr    G    Jon Feliciano    BUF
$10M/yr    WR    Devin Funchess    IND
$5.5M/yr    CB    Buster Skrine    CHI

And here are the 20 most underpaid players in amount per year, where I credited each player with whichever estimate was more pessimistic (so these are the guys that both PFF & PFLogic liked):
            
Salary    Pos     Player           Team
$13.3M/yr    EDGE    Brandon Graham    PHI
$8.5M/yr    LB    Jordan Hicks    ARI
$15.4M/yr    EDGE    Jadeveon Clowney    HOU
$3.5M/yr    S    Ha Ha Clinton-Dix    CHI
$5.3M/yr    S    Eric Weddle    LAR
$7.7M/yr    EDGE    Cameron Wake    TEN
$4.1M/yr    G    Ramon Foster    PIT
$2.5M/yr    DI    Steve McLendon    NYJ
$7.7M/yr    T    Bobby Massie    CHI
$1.6M/yr    EDGE    Brooks Reed    ARI
$3.8M/yr    EDGE    Lorenzo Alexander    BUF
$11M/yr    CB    Kareem Jackson    DEN
$6M/yr    TE    Nick Boyle    BAL
$9M/yr    S    Adrian Amos    GB
$8.4M/yr    DI    Henry Anderson    NYJ
$14M/yr    CB    Tyrann Mathieu    KC
$5.3M/yr    LB    Thomas Davis    LAC
$4.5M/yr    WR    Danny Amendola    DET
$15.2M/yr    DI    Grady Jarrett    ATL
$2M/yr    HB    Frank Gore    BUF

I have included franchise tagged players here. The lists leave out RFAs and guys who were traded and then signed a new contract, and maybe some others.

Obviously NFL teams know some things that aren't incorporated into PFF or PFLogic ratings, and my method for turning those ratings into salary estimates is imperfect, and the thing I'm doing here will tend to underrate guys like Bell who missed time in 2018. But these at least seem reasonably plausible as lists of good & bad signings.

 
Good insite on free agency and the comp pick system

Teams are gaming the comp pick system. Letting FA walk & not getting greedy. Picks can be traded.

>PHI has 3 (3rd/4th/4th)
 -Combined value=37th pick overall
>NE has 2 (3rd/3rd)
 -Combined value=43rd pick
>SEA has 4 (3rd/4th/6th/6th)
 -Combined value=54th pick

via @nickkorte https://t.co/mmQZLJOwAH

 
Men-in-Cleats said:
Cheap insurance for what?  They are not going anywhere next year and have far bigger needs than at backup RB for a team that opponents will likely stack the box against given their lack of talent in the passing game.  They could have picked up someone cheaper or drafted someone that would serve as a backup.  Hell, Crowell was just dumped by the Jets and would be a solid back that wouldn't be much of a dropoff from ADP and wouldn't take that much to sign.  It just sort of strikes me that having a relatively expensive backup at RB for a team is the football equivalent of the baseball team that is bottom of the division but has a lights out closer.  Just a bit of a waste of resources. 
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... it's really a one year deal... he counts for 2.5 million this year. That's chump change for a vet RB. If you think that's expensive, RBs who make more than AP in 2019:

Mike Davis

Chris Thompson

Jalen Richard

Theo Riddick

Chris Ivory

I'd put Crowell above most of those, so you can bet he will sign for more. And even if he doesnt, there is something to be said about not having to put a backup through a learning curve of the system. 

In fact, most of the notable named RBs who make less than AP are on their rookie deals

 
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bicycle_seat_sniffer said:
Good insite on free agency and the comp pick system

Teams are gaming the comp pick system. Letting FA walk & not getting greedy. Picks can be traded.

>PHI has 3 (3rd/4th/4th)
 -Combined value=37th pick overall
>NE has 2 (3rd/3rd)
 -Combined value=43rd pick
>SEA has 4 (3rd/4th/6th/6th)
 -Combined value=54th pick

via @nickkorte https://t.co/mmQZLJOwAH
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I agree with the concept and theme of the Tweet, but there are a lot of players still to sign that will dramatically alter the projected assignment of compensatory picks. So a big signing by PHI / NE / SEA could negatively impact their pick allocation. Even if they didn't sign one of those players, it could reduce the level of the projected picks allocated as they are currently projected above.

 
bicycle_seat_sniffer said:
Good insite on free agency and the comp pick system

Teams are gaming the comp pick system. Letting FA walk & not getting greedy. Picks can be traded.

>PHI has 3 (3rd/4th/4th)
 -Combined value=37th pick overall
>NE has 2 (3rd/3rd)
 -Combined value=43rd pick
>SEA has 4 (3rd/4th/6th/6th)
 -Combined value=54th pick

via @nickkorte https://t.co/mmQZLJOwAH
Click to expand...
Why more teams don't game this, I'll never understand. It's not that complicated. Avoid free agency, compile picks, use pick-swap trades to gather vet talent that FITS YOUR SYSTEM, let said vets walk after they perform, gather more comp picks, reduce, reuse, recycle.

Or be one of the marks and sign one of these vets to a record breaking deal at buy high prices.

 
LawFitz said:
Why more teams don't game this, I'll never understand. It's not that complicated. Avoid free agency, compile picks, use pick-swap trades to gather vet talent that FITS YOUR SYSTEM, let said vets walk after they perform, gather more comp picks, reduce, reuse, recycle.

Or be one of the marks and sign one of these vets to a record breaking deal at buy high prices.
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I think more teams are doing this. GB used to under Thompson, but he wouldnt trade them, because you couldnt I dont believe. 

Now, you can trade them and I think you will see more teams doing this... the problem is when more teams are trying to game the system than those who are signing big $$. Cant have comp picks if no one signs your FA

 
LawFitz said:
Why more teams don't game this, I'll never understand. It's not that complicated. Avoid free agency, compile picks, use pick-swap trades to gather vet talent that FITS YOUR SYSTEM, let said vets walk after they perform, gather more comp picks, reduce, reuse, recycle.

Or be one of the marks and sign one of these vets to a record breaking deal at buy high prices.
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I'll never understand either.  It has been proven time and time again you can't buy a team.  I don't know the stats but it would appear to this serious fan that most of the time i would prefer to have the hungry rookie or young guy vs. the overpaid guy on the back end of his career

 
bicycle_seat_sniffer said:
Good insite on free agency and the comp pick system

Teams are gaming the comp pick system. Letting FA walk & not getting greedy. Picks can be traded.

>PHI has 3 (3rd/4th/4th)
 -Combined value=37th pick overall
>NE has 2 (3rd/3rd)
 -Combined value=43rd pick
>SEA has 4 (3rd/4th/6th/6th)
 -Combined value=54th pick

via @nickkorte https://t.co/mmQZLJOwAH
Click to expand...
I have read that Houston will be in line for a 3rd for Honey Badger's contract. One of the reasons they chose to sign Tashaun Gipson at Safety instead of a different FA like Earl Thomas (besides $$$) is that Gipson was cut by Jax so he does not figure into the comp pick calculations.

 
LawFitz said:
Why more teams don't game this, I'll never understand. It's not that complicated. Avoid free agency, compile picks, use pick-swap trades to gather vet talent that FITS YOUR SYSTEM, let said vets walk after they perform, gather more comp picks, reduce, reuse, recycle. 

Or be one of the marks and sign one of these vets to a record breaking deal at buy high prices. 
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Many of the teams that don't are those that aren't losing guys that generate those picks.  No reason to sit out UFA if you aren't getting anything in return.

 
Hankmoody said:
Many of the teams that don't are those that aren't losing guys that generate those picks.  No reason to sit out UFA if you aren't getting anything in return.
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The Patriots have farm team organizations across the league like the Lions and Titans who basically over pay for their UFAs.....really quite a little scam they got going there

 
Despite strong interest elsewhere, restricted free agent RB Raheem Mostert just agreed to a three-year deal with the San Francisco 49ers... Wanted to continue building on what he started there. Thanks to John Lynch, Kyle Shanahan, and Paraag Marathe for the opportunity!

 
Game changer - Jags sign Cedric Ogbuehi.

Or as I would describe him as a Bengals fan: guy I actually wanted to stay less than Bobby Hart.

-QG

 
The Patriots have signed Maurice Harris - WR formerly of Redskins

Old Bill saw something out this kid, if he is on your dyno waivers, he is a what the heck add IMO. I liked what he showed with the drek at qb in washington

 
bicycle_seat_sniffer said:
The Patriots have signed Maurice Harris - WR formerly of Redskins

Old Bill saw something out this kid, if he is on your dyno waivers, he is a what the heck add IMO. I liked what he showed with the drek at qb in washington
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IMO, NE is coming a bunch of camp bodies at WR and will see who might work out. I would not rule out a trade for a legit, established WR. There still are other free agents available and they will likely draft someone. Bottom line, we won’t really know much until September. 

 
bicycle_seat_sniffer said:
The Patriots have signed Maurice Harris - WR formerly of Redskins

Old Bill saw something out this kid, if he is on your dyno waivers, he is a what the heck add IMO. I liked what he showed with the drek at qb in washington
Click to expand...


Anarchy99 said:
IMO, NE is coming a bunch of camp bodies at WR and will see who might work out. I would not rule out a trade for a legit, established WR. There still are other free agents available and they will likely draft someone. Bottom line, we won’t really know much until September. 
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With Patterson gone, Harris is a solid bet to make the roster for his return skills. Ensuring Edelman only has to do spot duty as a returner is smart, considering the current (total lack of) depth at WR. If he's able to get some pass catching snaps he's a decent add early before he costs more.

 
BREAKING: I sat down and interviewed TE Jared Cook prior to his meeting with the New Orleans #Saints. He expressed to me that he has all intentions to sign with the Saints and is "just going through the motions at this point". He is excited to be with Brees and compete for a ring https://t.co/Ay83RzfaVc

 
bicycle_seat_sniffer said:
BREAKING: I sat down and interviewed TE Jared Cook prior to his meeting with the New Orleans #Saints. He expressed to me that he has all intentions to sign with the Saints and is "just going through the motions at this point". He is excited to be with Brees and compete for a ring https://t.co/Ay83RzfaVc
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This news probably makes Cook my 16th keeper in FFPC. Upside is really high if this goes through. As a (trying to be former) Raiders fan, I wish the brought Cook back since a receiving corps of Brown, Williams and Cook would’ve been excellent imo. 

 
Has anyone been able to find details on Donte Moncrief's contract yet? Every other player I have any care for that signed I got their details days ago but can't find a thing regarding his and that makes me think it's pretty low, but would like to know details.

 
menobrown said:
Has anyone been able to find details on Donte Moncrief's contract yet? Every other player I have any care for that signed I got their details days ago but can't find a thing regarding his and that makes me think it's pretty low, but would like to know details.
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https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/pittsburgh-steelers/donte-moncrief-14500/

Donte Moncrief signed a 2 year, $9,000,000 contract with the Pittsburgh Steelers, including a $3,500,000 signing bonus, $3,500,000 guaranteed, and an average annual salary of $4,500,000. In 2019, Moncrief will earn a base salary of $1,500,000 and a signing bonus of $3,500,000, while carrying a cap hit of $3,250,000 and a dead cap value of $3,500,000.

 
As mentioned in the Lions thread, RB Malcolm Brown was signed to an offer sheet by Detroit. Rams have 5 days to match.

I was wondering if anyone would go after Brown given it wouldn’t cost any draft picks to sign him away (undrafted). Just didn’t think it would be the Lions.

Hard to see Brown overtaking Kerryon Johnson, but then again, how often do backup RBs get signed away when there are many to be found as UFAs or drafted rookies?

 
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zamboni said:
As mentioned in the Lions thread, RB Malcolm Brown was signed to an offer sheet by Detroit. Rams have 5 days to match.

I was wondering if anyone would go after Brown given it wouldn’t cost any draft picks to sign him away (undrafted). Just didn’t think it would be the Lions.

Hard to see Brown overtaking Kerryon Johnson, but then again, how often do backup RBs get signed away when there are many to be found as UFAs or drafted rookies?
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It never costs picks to sign someone.  Teams can get copensentory picks (not for undrafted players) but it doesn’t cost team’s picks.

ETA  I was wrong bout this.  See below in next post.

 
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JohnnyU said:
It never costs picks to sign someone.  Teams can get copensentory picks, but not for undrafted players.
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Right but if he was tendered at, say, a 2nd round level, wouldn’t it cost the Lions their 2nd round pick? Or am I misunderstanding the process?

 
zamboni said:
Right but if he was tendered at, say, a 2nd round level, wouldn’t it cost the Lions their 2nd round pick? Or am I misunderstanding the process?
Click to expand...
I was wrong. 

In the National Football League, a restricted free agent (RFA) is one with three or fewer accrued seasons (six or more regular season games with a team)[1] of service, who has received a "qualifying" offer (a salary level predetermined by the NFL Collective Bargaining Agreement between the league and its players, known as a "tender") from his current club. He can negotiate with any club through a certain date. If the restricted free agent accepts an offer sheet from a new club, his old club has "right of first refusal," a five-day period in which it may match the offer and retain him, or choose not to match the offer, in which case it may receive one or more draft picks for the upcoming draft from the player's new club. If an offer sheet is not executed, the player's rights revert to his old club the day after negotiations must end.

Tender amountsEdit

In 2007, a second-round tender offer was added, and after the 2011 lockout, the top tender was removed. The three tender amounts for 2018 are as follows:[2]

Tender amountCompensation required

$4.149 millionFirst-round

$2.914 millionSecond-round

$1.907 millionDetermined by RFA's original draft status

Each player that signs a tender receives a non-guaranteed one-year salary that corresponds to the tender level. Teams which choose not to match an offer on a player with a low tender receive a draft pick corresponding to the round in which the player was originally drafted (except that the highest pick that can be surrendered for such a tender is a second-round pick). For example, a player who was originally drafted in the sixth round of the NFL Draftwould force the team signing him to give his former team a sixth-round pick in the upcoming draft as compensation for his service. No compensation is required for an undrafted player on the lowest tender amount, so teams with valued undrafted RFAs are taking a risk by offering such tenders. (The top tender prior to 2011 required first- and third-round picks as compensation.)

 
Men-in-Cleats said:
I agree.  Another thing to consider is that this year is not exactly the year to be breaking the bank for a QB, there just aren't any overwhelming prospects that I'd be busting my ### to get.  If you do finally give him some targets and protect him you get to see exactly what you have and if you end up having to get a new QB you are not setting him up for failure by having a bunch of crappy skill position players around him.  The last thing they are going to do in that division is win 7 or 8 games.  They will be lucky to win a game in their division and also play Tennesee, Chicago, Minnesota, Green Bay, Indy, and Houston that look like definite losses.  The easiest games on their schedule are Detroit, Cincinati, Jacksonville, and the Jets, all of which are even to difficult matchups for them.  I'd guess them at somewhere around 4-5 wins next year maximum unless Carr really steps up this year, in which case they wouldn't need the early pick to draft a QB. 
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4 or 5 wins most likely won't be bad enough to get Tua or Fromm, that's the problem. 

They are putting together this team with enough talent to win some games, but very very low chance of making the playoffs and zero chance of winning it all. 

They are putting themselves in a position where they will not win in 2019, nor will they lose enough to get the QB of the future that they need.  Thats the pergatory that a lot of teams who aren't patient enough to rebuild have fallen into. 

2020 is everything the 2019 draft is not when it comes to high talent "sure thing" QBs.

 
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kittenmittens said:
4 or 5 wins most likely won't be bad enough to get Tua or Fromm, that's the problem. 

They are putting together this team with enough talent to win some games, but very very low chance of making the playoffs and zero chance of winning it all. 

They are putting themselves in a position where they will not win in 2019, nor will they lose enough to get the QB of the future that they need.  Thats the pergatory that a lot of teams who aren't patient enough to rebuild have fallen into. 

2020 is everything the 2019 draft is not when it comes to high talent "sure thing" QBs.
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They could trade one of their 2019 firsts for a 2020 first plus - which would give them ammunition to move up to get a QB next year.

 
The #Saints are expected to sign free agent TE Jared Cook, sources tell me and @TomPelissero. One of the top free agents still out there, Cook gives QB Drew Brees an immediate big-time weapon.

Why wasnt cook better in green bay? Or is it a rodgers thing? I expected grahan to be better but he might be done....

Will brees use cook well?

 
bicycle_seat_sniffer said:
The #Saints are expected to sign free agent TE Jared Cook, sources tell me and @TomPelissero. One of the top free agents still out there, Cook gives QB Drew Brees an immediate big-time weapon.

Why wasnt cook better in green bay? Or is it a rodgers thing? I expected grahan to be better but he might be done....

Will brees use cook well?
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Appears Cook will sign with NOS.

Saints signed TE Jared Cook, formerly of the Raiders.

The deal is not yet official, but both ProFootballTalk and NFL Network have reported it is going to happen. Cook set career-highs last season with the Raiders and will now play a prime role in a Drew Brees-led offense. Saints tight ends have mostly disappointed since Jimmy Graham left for Seattle, but Cook will be a good bet for a TE1 campaign.

 
bicycle_seat_sniffer said:
The #Saints are expected to sign free agent TE Jared Cook, sources tell me and @TomPelissero. One of the top free agents still out there, Cook gives QB Drew Brees an immediate big-time weapon.

Why wasnt cook better in green bay? Or is it a rodgers thing? I expected grahan to be better but he might be done....

Will brees use cook well?
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I'm not sure New Orleans is an upgrade from Oakland. Cook was the leading pass catcher in Oakland, he'll be 3rd at best in New Orleans, and possibly lower if Smith takes a step forward. Probably a decent upgrade for Brees though.

 
travdogg said:
I'm not sure New Orleans is an upgrade from Oakland. Cook was the leading pass catcher in Oakland, he'll be 3rd at best in New Orleans, and possibly lower if Smith takes a step forward. Probably a decent upgrade for Brees though.
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Ive read concerns in the SP about Brees arm as he gets older. Maybe he relies more on the middle of the field instead of going long, which would benefit Cook over Smith. But idk. 

Cook will see less of a share of the passing, but more better ypr and td% than in Oakland. Third in the pecking order in one of the pass happiest offenses will keep him among the top in tight end targets. Rightfully so. He's the best pass catching tight end for Brees since JG.

 
The Raiders ranked in the Bottom 10 in rushing attempts . . . the Saints ranked Top 5. As others have already mentioned, Cooks led the Raiders in targets at 101 . . . that would have ranked 3rd on the Saints last season. Over the past couple of seasons, Brees number of attempts has definitely gone down. The days of New Orleans throwing 650+ times per year seem to have become a thing of the past. Now 5 teams and 11 seasons into his career, one has to wonder if Cooks just posted what will go down as his best season across all statistical categories. People drafting him may end up paying for last year's performance.

 
Anarchy99 said:
The Raiders ranked in the Bottom 10 in rushing attempts . . . the Saints ranked Top 5. As others have already mentioned, Cooks led the Raiders in targets at 101 . . . that would have ranked 3rd on the Saints last season. Over the past couple of seasons, Brees number of attempts has definitely gone down. The days of New Orleans throwing 650+ times per year seem to have become a thing of the past. Now 5 teams and 11 seasons into his career, one has to wonder if Cooks just posted what will go down as his best season across all statistical categories. People drafting him may end up paying for last year's performance.
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While this is certainly a possibility, having him in NOS with MT & AK creates some valuable short-mid range opportunities..something Brees has thrived on (his high accuracy %).  As for the reduced passing attack, NOS limits AK to  <200 carries and Ingram saw an AVG 190 (for last 3 years) .    Lat Murray will see some work now with Ingram in Balt but Brees will still toss 500+ passes in a season if he is given another useful weapon.  OAK offense is not the best example but does Carr have any accuracy over 10 yards?   IIRC, he is strictly a short range dink & dump passer (Jalen Richards & Cook thrived.... Jordy Nelson & A Cooper suffered)

Brees tossed 537 & 489 passes in 2017 & 2018 respectfully.  Yet, they struggled to have a reliable #3 target in the passing game....  TreQuan Smith, Keith Kirkwood and now Cameron Meredith have all disappointed.  Cook could easily be #3.  So if we go with the idea Brees will throw about 520 pass attempts since NOS has reliable running game.  Dez is past any real value except a locker room mentor. 

WAG #'s --> MT gets 170, AK gets 110 that will leave > 200 for the others to distribute ....  Say Cook gets ~35% for 75 targets.  Guessing he catches 55+ would put him TE 8-9 depending on TD's.   This would make him worth a roster spot in most leagues. 

 
Birdie048 said:
While this is certainly a possibility, having him in NOS with MT & AK creates some valuable short-mid range opportunities..something Brees has thrived on (his high accuracy %).  As for the reduced passing attack, NOS limits AK to  <200 carries and Ingram saw an AVG 190 (for last 3 years) .    Lat Murray will see some work now with Ingram in Balt but Brees will still toss 500+ passes in a season if he is given another useful weapon.  OAK offense is not the best example but does Carr have any accuracy over 10 yards?   IIRC, he is strictly a short range dink & dump passer (Jalen Richards & Cook thrived.... Jordy Nelson & A Cooper suffered)

Brees tossed 537 & 489 passes in 2017 & 2018 respectfully.  Yet, they struggled to have a reliable #3 target in the passing game....  TreQuan Smith, Keith Kirkwood and now Cameron Meredith have all disappointed.  Cook could easily be #3.  So if we go with the idea Brees will throw about 520 pass attempts since NOS has reliable running game.  Dez is past any real value except a locker room mentor. 

WAG #'s --> MT gets 170, AK gets 110 that will leave > 200 for the others to distribute ....  Say Cook gets ~35% for 75 targets.  Guessing he catches 55+ would put him TE 8-9 depending on TD's.   This would make him worth a roster spot in most leagues. 
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I'm not suggesting that Cooks falls off the maps completely. The TE position fantasy wise last year saw quite a drop off from the Top 5 (which Cook was included in). However, I think in redraft leagues he will get drafted around that range as someone will have visions of Jimmy Graham in his prime type numbers. Personally, I would expect a drop off from last year into the mix of players that are borderline start worthy fantasy TE's. However, one TD reception at the borderline TE1 range could impact someone's year end ranking by 6-7 spots. He'll probably be too rich for my blood on draft day,, but clearly we don't have any ADP data to evaluate yet.

 
Anarchy99 said:
I'm not suggesting that Cooks falls off the maps completely. The TE position fantasy wise last year saw quite a drop off from the Top 5 (which Cook was included in). However, I think in redraft leagues he will get drafted around that range as someone will have visions of Jimmy Graham in his prime type numbers. Personally, I would expect a drop off from last year into the mix of players that are borderline start worthy fantasy TE's. However, one TD reception at the borderline TE1 range could impact someone's year end ranking by 6-7 spots. He'll probably be too rich for my blood on draft day,, but clearly we don't have any ADP data to evaluate yet.
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I completely agree with you....  I tempered my value to TE 8-9 range depending on TDs.  I have no delusions of him being Jimmy 2.0 as Cook is past his prime already.  

I agree some might target him projecting Top 5 TE which is a stretch IMO.  Dynasty value is not much but he could be a serviceable TE in 2019, but I have little expectation past this year.

 
I agree with what you guys are saying in regards to Cooks value with Brees, that he might get over drafted.

A few things to consider when projecting for him with the Saints.

The Saints might run the ball less this year as I dont think Murray is as good as Ingram.

Cook has averaged 5.6 targets per game the last 3 seasons. That's 89 over 16 games.

His catch rate has been 63% one of the main problems with Cook has been his inconsistency. He regularly has had high volume of opportunities with different QBs. His QB with the Rams not so good.

With Carr the last 2 years his catch rate has been better. 

Brees is better than Carr so I could see his catch rate being perhaps as good as last season 67%. 

90 targets st 63% is 57 receptions. I see some upside for his efficiency to be higher than that though.

 
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