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2019 Post Season Subscriber Contest (1 Viewer)

TheWinz said:
With the time I have spent, if I had the knowledge, I could've built a querier already.  Just for giggles, who are your Chiefs and Niners?
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Here are my remaining players:

Ryan Tannehill           $14    9.70 23.70
Derrick Henry            $15    26.90 27.35

Patrick Mahomes          $36    0.00 51.35
Damien Williams          $16    0.00  25.80
LeSean McCoy             $10      0.00   0.00
Demarcus Robinson         $4      0.00   1.40
Travis Kelce             $22      0.00 46.40

Jimmy Garoppolo          $25    0.00 11.55
Raheem Mostert           $14    0.00   5.80
Kendrick Bourne          $11      0.00 13.00
George Kittle            $21      0.00   6.10

 
Steeler said:
I'm going to put something together on calcomatic (hopefully tonight) that will help us see potential SB match ups and how teams might stack up.  It won't be able to predict which teams have the best chance to make the cut this week, but it will show the surviving entries with the most number of players for each of the 4 potential SB matchups.
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Nice!

Suggestion: have it sort by $ rather than # of players.

 
Steeler said:
I'm going to put something together on calcomatic (hopefully tonight) that will help us see potential SB match ups and how teams might stack up.  It won't be able to predict which teams have the best chance to make the cut this week, but it will show the surviving entries with the most number of players for each of the 4 potential SB matchups.
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http://calcomatic.com/PlayoffBreakdown

I usually make this page available for the super bowl week when all the players count for each team so keep that in mind.  I tweaked it to include all the teams alive this week so we can get a feel for which entries might have a chance to win depending on which NFL teams advance.  It's not perfect but it's what we have :)   There is also a "Playoff Breakdown" link added to the left nav menu.

When the page loads you should sort on "Total Player Count" to see the teams with the most players still alive this week.  Then use the "Max Team" filter at the bottom of the grid to focus on a specific team.  "Max Player Count" shows the number of players for the "Max Team" for each entry (if there is a tie I think it's sorted alphabetically).  "Player Break Down" shows the number players for each of the NFL teams that are still alive.

For example, entry 102365 looks really good with this Break Down:  KC (6),SF (6),TEN (3),GB (2)   It's a lock to make the cut this week with 8 players counting and also has a good chance at winning with 12 total players (assuming KC and SF win this week).

Another interesting entry is this one:  102021 with this break down: GB (14),TEN (13)  It will have everyone covered in a GB / TEN Super Bowl but can it make the cut this week with only 4 players counting?

Enjoy!

 
Steeler said:
For example, entry 102365 looks really good with this Break Down:  KC (6),SF (6),TEN (3),GB (2)   It's a lock to make the cut this week with 8 players counting and also has a good chance at winning with 12 total players (assuming KC and SF win this week).
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😎😎wish I'd made room for Kittle though. Or Henry.

 
Dr. Dan said:
made it by about 3 points lol

I have 5 guys who count this week. not holding my breath
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That's perfect if you have enough left for the following week.  Usually it's best to squeak by this round and hope the guys who have you covered next week get the boot.

 
Hoosier16 said:
Crosby instead of Williams and the other 4 the same.
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Given that 102021 has 27(!) Packers and Titans I am a little less optimistic about our chances ;)

Kinda rooting for that entry.  Awesome coverage.

-QG

 
After scrolling through calcomatic for about 15 minutes i realized I have no shot at the big prize (assuming my 2 teams win this weekend).  My 8 SF/KC isn't going to cut it.  I contemplated squeezing in another player or 2 for my superbowl matchup, but ultimately decided to roster Deandre Hopkins instead to secure more points. Unfortunately there are a few teams who wouldn't have made it under a normal 1st round cut, but are locked and loaded.  I kind of figured that would happen when news broke that there were only 3k entries.  For me to finish anywhere near the top 10, I would need E.Sanders and Tyreke to each have 25+ in the superbowl.  At first glance, at least one of those 2 seem to be missing from some the KC/SF heavy teams.  

 
I am totally rooting for the entry that went 27 deep on a TEN/GB final, because even if there had been a normal cut both weeks, they would've made it.  They constructed their team to guarantee 1st place if things fell their way.  There were 36 possible team combos to make it to the SB.  This format would've allowed 6 of those combos to have max rosters, with over $50 to spend on other players to get them through the cuts.

 
The only other live team I could find that maxxed out on his teams was a HOU/GB entry, but he only had $12 left to roster Diggs.  This team would not have been smart under normal years, like the one above.

 
I only had KC and SF players going into week 2 in the playoffs but Mahomes/Kelce carried me into the 3rd weekend.  I have never had a team alive in the playoff contest going into the Super Bowl.  No Derrick Henry, Aaron Jones or Adams going to hurt because I don't think Mahomes/Kelce is going to score about hundred points again.

 
For those using the Calcomatic breakdown and getting discouraged about this week, it looks like the playoff breakdown is showing only teams with 8 or more players left.  That only accounts for 608 entires.  It wouldn't surprise my if close to two out of three rosters is carry Lamar Jackson this week.

 
TheWinz said:
I am totally rooting for the entry that went 27 deep on a TEN/GB final, because even if there had been a normal cut both weeks, they would've made it.  They constructed their team to guarantee 1st place if things fell their way.  There were 36 possible team combos to make it to the SB.  This format would've allowed 6 of those combos to have max rosters, with over $50 to spend on other players to get them through the cuts.
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Yeah this was sharp stuff - I feel like I lost my fastball this year.  😕

-QG

 
BassNBrew said:
For those using the Calcomatic breakdown and getting discouraged about this week, it looks like the playoff breakdown is showing only teams with 8 or more players left.  That only accounts for 608 entires.  It wouldn't surprise my if close to two out of three rosters is carry Lamar Jackson this week.
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Lamar was one of the highest scorers last week, and was owned by nearly 500 more than any player still alive.  He will 100% for sure be the most common player week 3, even though he is a guaranteed goose egg.  Actually, Thomas & Brees will likely still be more common than any live player too.

 
I have never made the final cut so hoping to get to the last week to keep things interesting.  I think my roster is too small to have a shot assuming someone has KC-SF or TEN-SF with the same players and more. 

D Henry
G Joseph

D Williams
M Hardman
T Kelce
H Butker

R Mostert
E Sanders
G Kittle

 
kylechoffman said:
I have never made the final cut so hoping to get to the last week to keep things interesting.  I think my roster is too small to have a shot assuming someone has KC-SF or TEN-SF with the same players and more. 

D Henry
G Joseph

D Williams
M Hardman
T Kelce
H Butker

R Mostert
E Sanders
G Kittle
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There are many entries with your players and more.  Here is just one example of a team that has you covered - http://subscribers.footballguys.com/playoffcontest/2019/100108.php

The eventual winner will likely have spent a boatload on his 2 SB teams

 
zed2283 said:
He wanted to make it through.  But like I've been saying, there's really only one way to win and it requires a good deal of luck.
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This year, the luck was having no cut in week 1, because if the Titans don't make it to the SB, I can pretty much guarantee the winner will have a pitiful week 1 score.

 
TheWinz said:
This year, the luck was having no cut in week 1, because if the Titans don't make it to the SB, I can pretty much guarantee the winner will have a pitiful week 1 score.
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That's not true.  The luck is having whatever combination it takes compared to all other entries to squeak through to Super Bowl week.  This year that includes week 1, but it's not the total picture.

 
zed2283 said:
That's not true.  The luck is having whatever combination it takes compared to all other entries to squeak through to Super Bowl week.  This year that includes week 1, but it's not the total picture.
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I hope you will agree the most common strategy of this contest is to score just enough to squeak through each of the first 3 weeks, then explode in the SB.  If KC beats TEN this week, I can assure you the eventual winner did not squeak through to SB week, as you put it.  They will have scored well above the cut in both weeks 2 & 3.  As for week 1, there was no squeaking by, but let's revisit this after all is said and done, and see how well the top finishing teams actually scored in week 1.

 
No matter what happens, this has been really fun and I love your calcomatic breakdown. very fun. Looks like my 13 TEN-SF guys WASN'T the most, but those that have more have differing guys so it will come down to which backups actually do stuff during the SB if it's TEN-SF...

 
zed2283 said:
Ok, now that is interesting because it goes against my theory a bit.
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Last year's winner had 7 players, 6 Pats and 1 Ram.  IIRC historically that's about as many as you'd need if you picked two top-2 seeds in the SB, since you'd need to backfill with more players from other teams to survive the week 1 cut.  

 
Ignoratio Elenchi said:
Last year's winner had 7 players, 6 Pats and 1 Ram.  IIRC historically that's about as many as you'd need if you picked two top-2 seeds in the SB, since you'd need to backfill with more players from other teams to survive the week 1 cut.  
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As I mentioned previously, I made it to the Pats-Seahawks SB round and I think I must have had a total of 10 players but didn't finish in the prizes.  That has influenced my decision-making since (which is probably why I haven't made it back to SB round).

 
zed2283 said:
Ok, now that is interesting because it goes against my theory a bit.
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Last year was quite the anomaly.  Never before had the winning SB team scored only 13, and the Rams tied the all-time low for the losing team with only 3, so obviously the 16 total points is the lowest ever.  Here are some other factors that led to the eventual winner having just 6 Pats and 1 Ram:

- Both teams had a week 1 bye, and there was a cut of 79, so teams stocking up on NE/LAR players got eliminated at a high rate in week 1

- The Rams players were taking turns being their team's top scorers week to week.  That means if you didn't roster alot, you were getting low scores, and probably getting eliminated.  And if you did roster alot, you overspent and didn't leave enough to cover players from other teams.  Week 2 it was the RB's (Gurley & Anderson), while Goff was the lowest scoring QB of the week.  Week 3 it was Goff (actually he was the lowest scoring QB of the week again, but was still the highest scoring Ram) & Zuerlein, while Gurley, CJ, and Kelly all sucked rocks.  And the SB it was the WR's (Cooks & Woods), while the $61 combo of Goff/Gurley only scored 13 points.

- You could've rostered no Rams and still almost won the whole contest (the 7th place finisher had no Rams).  And it would've cost you less than $100 worth of Pats.  Something like that would not be feasible with a high scoring game, as you need players from both teams (unless it's a blowout).  Last year's winner only needed 95 to win.  The year prior, 95 would've gotten you about 200th place.

 
I joined a contest from the newsletter- pick one guy from each team, can't change lineup

I reinstalled windows and can't recall the link. Someone help me out here please

 
The perfect game 1 - Henry runs wild, scores a boatload.  Chiefs abandon the run, Mahomes throws for a mile, with a few long TD's to Robinson.  KC wins, but in the process, all owners of Williams, Hill, and Kelce get booted.

The perfect game 2 - A low scoring affair, with each of MVS and Graham scoring well.  GB wins, but a ton of Rodgers, Jones, and Adams owners get eliminated.

Good luck to all.  We are nearing the finish line.

 
TheWinz said:
The perfect game 1 - Henry runs wild, scores a boatload.  Chiefs abandon the run, Mahomes throws for a mile, with a few long TD's to Robinson.  KC wins, but in the process, all owners of Williams, Hill, and Kelce get booted.

The perfect game 2 - A low scoring affair, with each of MVS and Graham scoring well.  GB wins, but a ton of Rodgers, Jones, and Adams owners get eliminated.

Good luck to all.  We are nearing the finish line.
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Or, TEN and SF win and it doesn't matter how, lol...

 
zed2283 said:
I was just going to say, there must not be too many that have these guys (even individually).
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Never mind, I don't know what happened with the live scoring.  I was up to 116 and then went back to 387 without any new scoring in the game.

It did it again, I don't understand what's happening.

 
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