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2019 Post Season Subscriber Contest (3 Viewers)

i forgot about the scoring for max 2 player rule, back to the drawing board...

 
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BassNBrew said:
I’ve been clicking on the ads
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Thanks.  But that goes against the terms of the ad service I'm using so please dont click on the ads unless you are genuinely interested in the ad.  Some other guy running some other website has to pay for ad clicks so that is unfair to the other guy.

 
Curious as to what the Shark Pool consensus is.....

  1. Cost per mid-range player seems higher than earlier seasons
  2. Much more difficult loading up on any two teams
  3. Much more difficult selecting players on your "non-Super Bowl teams"
  4. Much smaller roster overall

 
My winning squad is using 5 players wildcard weekend for $105. I have 8 players in my version of the Super Bowl for $145. Guess we'll see.

 
Steeler said:
Thanks.  But that goes against the terms of the ad service I'm using so please dont click on the ads unless you are genuinely interested in the ad.  Some other guy running some other website has to pay for ad clicks so that is unfair to the other guy.
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Yup. I’m interested in generating revenue for you and interested in what wares they might be hawking. Absolutely has nothing to do with anything you’ve suggested or asked. 

 
TheWinz said:
The only way to win is to have a decent share of players from the 2 SB teams.  If you believe in your underdogs, sure, choose them.  But choosing them just to be different is a mistake.  The goal is to choose just enough players from non-SB teams to advance each week.  My current submission has $180 spent on my 2 SB hopefuls.  I have faith in my 2 teams, and hopefully the remaining $70 was spent wisely to survive weeks 1 and 2.
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Part of the equation is how much faith you have in a particular Super Bowl combination though.  If you are essentially a coin toss between two combinations the shark move is to go with the one that is (presumably) less popular.

-QG

 
mphtrilogy said:
i forgot about the scoring for max 2 player rule, back to the drawing board...
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That changes everything. On the one hand, you get the “best ball“ aspect, where if you have three or four players from one team you’re more likely to get the best two performances. On the other hand, you lose points each week that way as well.

this encourages diversification, of course. It forces people to choose players for multiple teams.

likewise with the scoring threshold to advance each week. If it is indeed 70 or 80 points to narrow it down from the total number of entries to the entries slated to advance to week two, one can’t just stack ones team with BYE week players.

this contest is much harder strategy-wise than some have intimated. 

 
QuizGuy66 said:
Part of the equation is how much faith you have in a particular Super Bowl combination though.  If you are essentially a coin toss between two combinations the shark move is to go with the one that is (presumably) less popular.

-QG
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Maybe. 

odds are, it’s strategic suicide since there’s a reason those teams aren’t expected to advance to the Super Bowl.

and in this day and age of DFS and the “contrary play“ strategy, I suspect a rather large number of people will be taking some of those long odds players, which can concentrate a lot of budget into a losing cause if the odds makers are correct.

another shark strategy might be to take elite players from the teams that are expected to advance, but sprinkle the rest of your lineup with some of those hedge players that you expect to go one or two rounds. 

there are so many ways to play this game, and not all of them are obvious at a glance.

 
rustycolts said:
Well with my first try I don't have any players from 6 teams that may not be the best route to go. So do over time.
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Same here. Its risky to get by the first weekend, but you have to spend as little as possible on your "non-SB" teams to remain competitive later. I do think that many will go "all-in" on the Saints since they are easily the favorite team to make the Super Bowl from the Wild Card round, but man the cost of going Saints heavy is tough and I am a huge Saints fan.

 
Stephen Holloway said:
Curious as to what the Shark Pool consensus is.....

  1. Cost per mid-range player seems higher than earlier seasons
  2. Much more difficult loading up on any two teams
  3. Much more difficult selecting players on your "non-Super Bowl teams"
  4. Much smaller roster overall
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No comments on any of this?

 
Both of my superbowl teams are on bye this week...10 total players.  I went with 4 players this weekend.  A qb/te combo and a qb/wr combo.  I am hoping for around 80 points.  If both of those wildcard teams get beat this weekend, I have no chance with only 4 counting next week.  If one team advances, I have a chance if my superbowl teams put up big points next week.  If all 4 of my players advance this week, I feel confident to make the cut the following week with 8 players counting.  Probably not the best strategy, but that is what I am going with.  I could spread out the players over more than 2 teams this weekend, but will leave me exposed the following week.  Avoiding all Saints players and hoping they only score around 24-27 this weekend.  If they drop 45 I imagine the cutline will probably be above what I am predicting.

 
Stephen Holloway said:
Same here. Its risky to get by the first weekend, but you have to spend as little as possible on your "non-SB" teams to remain competitive later. I do think that many will go "all-in" on the Saints since they are easily the favorite team to make the Super Bowl from the Wild Card round, but man the cost of going Saints heavy is tough and I am a huge Saints fan.
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Yea picking them for SB could only manage 4 players though. 

 
Stephen Holloway said:
Curious as to what the Shark Pool consensus is.....

  1. Cost per mid-range player seems higher than earlier seasons
  2. Much more difficult loading up on any two teams
  3. Much more difficult selecting players on your "non-Super Bowl teams"
  4. Much smaller roster overall
Click to expand...
That's my complaint every year for both contests, they keep making the mid-range values higher (unreasonably so considering auction-type roster construction values).

 
Stephen Holloway said:
Same here. Its risky to get by the first weekend, but you have to spend as little as possible on your "non-SB" teams to remain competitive later. I do think that many will go "all-in" on the Saints since they are easily the favorite team to make the Super Bowl from the Wild Card round, but man the cost of going Saints heavy is tough and I am a huge Saints fan.
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Not to mention if they don’t advance to the super bowl (which, as a Niners fan I’m hoping, of course) then folks will have gone all-in on a 2-win team. Or (gulp) 1-win if the Vikes pull off another miracle. 

 
gdub said:
Both of my superbowl teams are on bye this week...10 total players.  I went with 4 players this weekend.  A qb/te combo and a qb/wr combo.  I am hoping for around 80 points.  If both of those wildcard teams get beat this weekend, I have no chance with only 4 counting next week.  If one team advances, I have a chance if my superbowl teams put up big points next week.  If all 4 of my players advance this week, I feel confident to make the cut the following week with 8 players counting.  Probably not the best strategy, but that is what I am going with.  I could spread out the players over more than 2 teams this weekend, but will leave me exposed the following week.  Avoiding all Saints players and hoping they only score around 24-27 this weekend.  If they drop 45 I imagine the cutline will probably be above what I am predicting.
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That’s a very high risk/reward strategy. 

there are some interesting tiebreakers in this contest, too - reading further those are for the final round.  Still good to know. 

 
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Just to compare QB prices from last year to this...

2018 - 40, 38, 32, 27, 26, 24, 22, 21, 18, 16, 14, 12

2019 - 40, 38, 36, 26, 25, 25, 23, 21, 20, 17, 15, 14

QB's 1, 2, and 8 are the same.  QB's 4, 5, 6, 7, 10, and 11 are $1 different.  QB's 9 & 12 are $2 different.  The only big difference is QB3 at $4, but with good reason.  Last year it was Watson, who wasn't really projected to go far in the contest.  The prices are pretty similar, with a slight overall increase this year (under $1 average).

 
Stephen Holloway said:
Curious as to what the Shark Pool consensus is.....

  1. Cost per mid-range player seems higher than earlier seasons
  2. Much more difficult loading up on any two teams
  3. Much more difficult selecting players on your "non-Super Bowl teams"
  4. Much smaller roster overall
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Yeah, I think all of these are factors. As I said earlier in the thread, I think the winner will need fewer players than normal this year. I usually try for 9-12 and it seems likely that it could be 8 or even 7 this year if you have the highest priced/performing ones on each team. 

This year will likely also be worse on the "Dead Man Walking" effect. Since it's harder to get good players on non-SB teams, the margin of error in the first weekend is slimmer for the owners who know that they need to limit their non-SB team allocation to have a shot in the SB. 

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Maybe. 

odds are, it’s strategic suicide since there’s a reason those teams aren’t expected to advance to the Super Bowl.

and in this day and age of DFS and the “contrary play“ strategy, I suspect a rather large number of people will be taking some of those long odds players, which can concentrate a lot of budget into a losing cause if the odds makers are correct.

another shark strategy might be to take elite players from the teams that are expected to advance, but sprinkle the rest of your lineup with some of those hedge players that you expect to go one or two rounds. 

there are so many ways to play this game, and not all of them are obvious at a glance.
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I'm not talking a 6-seed on 6-seed situation.  Just saying that popularity of a pick is a consideration unless you have mortal-lock conviction about the two finalists.  I need to look again at my undercard players though regardless.

-QG

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
That’s a very high risk/reward strategy. 

there are some interesting tiebreakers in this contest, too.  To the point that folks who don’t read the rules might get bit & miss the cut. 
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When I read the rules, I see "Ties in the first three rounds will advance", so I'm not sure how someone will get bit & miss the cut because of them, unless you're only referring to the cut between 12th place and 13th place.  There are enough other variables and problems in creating a roster for this contest that I'm paying absolutely no attention to that minuscule possibility.

 
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apalmer said:
When I read the rules, I see "Ties in the first three rounds will advance", so I'm not sure how someone will get bit & miss the cut because of them, unless you're only referring to the cut between 12th place and 13th place.  There are enough other variables and problems in creating a roster for this contest that I'm paying absolutely no attention to that minuscule possibility.
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Actually no, I was referring to the list pf tiebreakers For the final week, which I thought also applied to the first 3. So my bad.

Still - helpful to read up since when I set my first lineup I didn’t realize the “top two player per NFL team” rule. 
 

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Still - helpful to read up since when I set my first lineup I didn’t realize the “top two player per NFL team” rule. 
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This will be the most widely missed rule.  Luckily for the SP regulars, most who submit a team do not visit this thread.  This is one "secret" I am sure others hope many will overlook.

But it works both ways.  Many think you only get weekly scores from your top 2 players all the way through the contest.  This leads to people selecting 2 players each from every team.  It's these teams that rock in the first few weeks, and have no real shot at anything.  These submissions do nothing except raise the weekly cutoff in weeks 1 and 2.  

 
gdub said:
Both of my superbowl teams are on bye this week...10 total players.  I went with 4 players this weekend.  A qb/te combo and a qb/wr combo.  I am hoping for around 80 points.  If both of those wildcard teams get beat this weekend, I have no chance with only 4 counting next week.  If one team advances, I have a chance if my superbowl teams put up big points next week.  If all 4 of my players advance this week, I feel confident to make the cut the following week with 8 players counting.  Probably not the best strategy, but that is what I am going with.  I could spread out the players over more than 2 teams this weekend, but will leave me exposed the following week.  Avoiding all Saints players and hoping they only score around 24-27 this weekend.  If they drop 45 I imagine the cutline will probably be above what I am predicting.
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So, you selected players from only 4 teams total, and will have only 6 total SB players if you guessed correctly?  Your roster must be packed with studs and is pretty bold for sure.

 
TheWinz said:
So, you selected players from only 4 teams total, and will have only 6 total SB players if you guessed correctly?  Your roster must be packed with studs and is pretty bold for sure.
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I don't see how he makes it out of round 1 with only 4 counting players.  Sure they are stacked but if history serves he needs 20+ points out of each of those guys to even have a shot.  One error and he is done. 

 
Over $200 spent on my 2 SB guesses.  6 scores this week that project to 90-110 points (depending on whether I use Dodds' or Bloom's projections). If I picked this week's games correctly, I'll have 8 scores next week and expect to score 140-150; if not I'll only have 6 and hope that 125-130 or so is enough. 

 
TheWinz said:
This will be the most widely missed rule.  Luckily for the SP regulars, most who submit a team do not visit this thread.  This is one "secret" I am sure others hope many will overlook.

But it works both ways.  Many think you only get weekly scores from your top 2 players all the way through the contest.  This leads to people selecting 2 players each from every team.  It's these teams that rock in the first few weeks, and have no real shot at anything.  These submissions do nothing except raise the weekly cutoff in weeks 1 and 2.  
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What do you think would be the minimum number of players In the Super needed to win it all?

 
QuizGuy66 said:
I'm not talking a 6-seed on 6-seed situation.  Just saying that popularity of a pick is a consideration unless you have mortal-lock conviction about the two finalists.  I need to look again at my undercard players though regardless.

-QG
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Having a mortal lock conviction on the two finalists is the only way to play this, in my opinion. Build a diverse enough team to advance, but invest heavy (as possible) on your 2 SB teams, and if you miss you miss. I would absolutely start with my conviction on those teams, regardless of how strong I felt about them. So perhaps not a mortal lock, but you definitely need to plant your flag on this.

 
I would also say it's not just about who you think advances but rather who you think doesn't. I don't have a ton of faith in the following take, but one flag I am planting is that New Orleans walks into Lambeau and makes the Packers a one and done. I'm not betting the farm on it, but I am choosing that path in my narrative view of the how these brackets shake out. As such I am avoiding Packers. I don't think I need any of them in the divisional round to advance, provided I get there of course. Anyway, not trying to argue for/against the Packers but just describing an example of planting a flag and going with it. I think it's possible to over-diversify your team here. Avoiding those one and dones, if possible, is important, probably not quite as much as choosing the 2 SB teams correctly, but close.

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
What do you think would be the minimum number of players In the Super needed to win it all?
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twelve...... no really, that's one of the crucial considerations. Does four on each of my Super Bowl teams take me all the way? or do I need five each? With the pricing structure this year, I agree with @Duckboythat it should take less this year, but no way to determine that exact number.

 
TheWinz said:
This will be the most widely missed rule.  Luckily for the SP regulars, most who submit a team do not visit this thread.  This is one "secret" I am sure others hope many will overlook.

But it works both ways.  Many think you only get weekly scores from your top 2 players all the way through the contest.  This leads to people selecting 2 players each from every team.  It's these teams that rock in the first few weeks, and have no real shot at anything.  These submissions do nothing except raise the weekly cutoff in weeks 1 and 2.  
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Exactly! So if you're trying to get through with a reasonable score in the first week, you don't want all those guys who didn't read the rules. You want to shout that rule from the rooftops. 

 
barackdhouse said:
Having a mortal lock conviction on the two finalists is the only way to play this, in my opinion. Build a diverse enough team to advance, but invest heavy (as possible) on your 2 SB teams, and if you miss you miss. I would absolutely start with my conviction on those teams, regardless of how strong I felt about them. So perhaps not a mortal lock, but you definitely need to plant your flag on this.
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This. I've always done better in the contest having just two teams with more than two players. I used to try to pick the Championship games and have one team with 6, another with 5, the third with 4 and the last team with 3. Then just add 3-4 more players from other teams. Just doesn't really work well. 

 
ConstruxBoy said:
This. I've always done better in the contest having just two teams with more than two players. I used to try to pick the Championship games and have one team with 6, another with 5, the third with 4 and the last team with 3. Then just add 3-4 more players from other teams. Just doesn't really work well. 
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This year I don't know how folks are going heavier than four each on their two SB teams.

 
Investment Summary:

1 win teams (1 of 6) - $4

2 win teams (3 of 3) - $34

3 win teams (2 of 2) - $102

4 win teams (1 of 1) - $109

SB teams (2 of 2) - $185

Score-Countable Roster Size by Week: 13 / 18 / 16 / 12

Active Payroll by Week: $ 164 / 237 / 219 / 185 ( 66 / 95 / 88 / 74 %)

Projected Scoring by Week (80% of SWAG estimates): 77 / 102 / 94 / 106

 
Stephen Holloway said:
twelve...... no really, that's one of the crucial considerations. Does four on each of my Super Bowl teams take me all the way? or do I need five each? With the pricing structure this year, I agree with @Duckboythat it should take less this year, but no way to determine that exact number.
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But how will you advance past the 1st round if you’ve spent all your $ on the super bowl teams? Seems unpossible. 

 
The key is no defenses,kickers or quarterbacks. Load up on RB's,WR's and TE's.

OR...No WR's,RB's or TE's and load up on quarterbacks,kickers and defenses.

OR.....somewhere in between those two.

OR...have your wife who knows NOTHING about football,or your 2 year old or your cat or dog point to players until you get to 250.

 
Rubi said:
The key is no defenses,kickers or quarterbacks. Load up on RB's,WR's and TE's.

OR...No WR's,RB's or TE's and load up on quarterbacks,kickers and defenses.

OR.....somewhere in between those two.

OR...have your wife who knows NOTHING about football,or your 2 year old or your cat or dog point to players until you get to 250.
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I believe you’ve cracked the code. 

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
What do you think would be the minimum number of players In the Super needed to win it all?
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If history is any indicator...

2018 - Winner spent $87 on 6 Patriots, and $20 on 1 Ram = $107 on 7 players - scored 105, won by 10 points over 2nd place

2017 - Winner spent $106 on 4 Patriots, and $65 on 7 Eagles = $170 on 11 players - scored 230, won by 28 over 2nd place

2016 - Winner spent $90 on 5 Patriots, and $72 on 5 Falcons = $162 on 10 players - scored 178, won by 10 over 2nd place

2015 - Winner spent $45 on 4 Broncos, and $55 on 2 Panthers = $100 on 6 players - scored 81, won by 4 over 2nd place

2014 - Winner spent $110 on 6 Patriots, and $76 on 6 Seahawks = $186 on 12 players - scored 167, won by 5 over 2nd place

Each year is very different.  2018, for example, you could've selected 8 Patriots for $99 and won it all, without selecting a single Rams player.  2017, 2016, and 2014 were high scoring games by both teams, and required players from both teams.  2015 was a defensive struggle between DEN & CAR, where the DEN D ($11) was the highest scorer with 21 points.  Cam ($37) and Peyton ($26) combined to score only 22.

What does all the above suggest?  I will let you decide.

 
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