***2020 Democrat Primary/Caucus Thread*** Biden Is Your Demoractic Nominee (1 Viewer)

[BassNBrew]

Where the hell are these people - is it so late that they all fell asleep or went home?

Little cities around the state.  CNN is going to cover anywhere they can't get a 4+ star hotel and does has a bar with craft cocktails in town.

 

[BassNBrew]

LOL...spoiled ballots.  Russians have infiltrated the heartland.

 

[timschochet]

Where the hell are these people - is it so late that they all fell asleep or went home?

They just interviewed an 18 year old who went for Biden. That’s gotta be rare right? 

 

[AAABatteries]

I'm guessing each precinct doesn't have the same number of delegates, right?

 

[huthut]

Where the hell are these people - is it so late that they all fell asleep or went home?

I don't know how true this is, but I heard from someone canvasing that lots of people have opinions about who they will vote for when polled, but are not going to make the effort to caucus. That could potentially lower the support for candidates with less dedicated voters. 

 

[ShamrockPride]

No clue where he's getting this info/data from, but....

David Shuster @DavidShuster

Based on the entrance polling/data, there is now every indication @BernieSanders will win #iowacaucus2020.  Only question is margin.  Buttigieg and Warren battling for 2nd.  #Democrats2020 #BernieWinsIowa

 

[NorvilleBarnes]

If Yang finishes in the top  ten he's celebrating.

 

[caustic]

Lol this #### is completely nuts. What is going on?

So if I have this right: the first vote leads to the second vote which leads to state delegate allocations which lead to national delegate allocations, and there's a 15% viability threshold on the first vote at the precinct level along with 15% thresholds statewide and in Iowa's four congressional districts. 

I definitely see how this is better than a primary with ranked choice voting. 

 

[Phil Elliott]

They just interviewed an 18 year old who went for Biden. That’s gotta be rare right? 

CNN or MSNBC (forget which) was doing entrance polls and said only 3% of 18-29 year olds were for Biden. About 45% were for Bernie.

 

[MAC_32]

Although at least in Iowa, highly accurate for the ultimate nominee. MSNBC says Iowa has picked the eventual nominee 100% of the time since 2000.

Makes sense, several swing states share characteristics. 

 

[timschochet]

CNN or MSNBC was doing entrance polls and said only 3% of 18-29 year olds were for Biden. About 45% were for Bernie.

Exactly. It’s almost the opposite 65 and up. 

 

[Rattle and Hum]

Guys, Agnes Miller from Davenport just switched to Mayor Pete, so, a major shift may be underway. 

 

[PhantomJB]

Klobuchar wins one of four Fla. satellite caucuses...

At the packed Unitarian Universalist Fellowship of Charlotte County on Monday afternoon, Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar earned the most support with 56 people choosing her. Pete Buttigieg, former mayor of  South Bend, Indiana, received 45. Former Vice President Joe Biden came in third with 33.

U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, who has been leading or tied for No. 1 in Iowa polls, earned a single nod at this satellite center, as did former businessman Andrew Yang. 

For the first time, the Iowa Democratic Party has allowed state Democrats to caucus at multiple satellite sites, including four in Florida.

https://www.news-press.com/story/news/local/2020/02/03/iowa-caucus-amy-klobuchar-leading-pick-among-iowans-port-charlotte-caucus/4623750002/

 

[skol asylum]

No clue where he's getting this info/data from, but....

David Shuster @DavidShuster

Based on the entrance polling/data, there is now every indication @BernieSanders will win #iowacaucus2020.  Only question is margin.  Buttigieg and Warren battling for 2nd.  #Democrats2020 #BernieWinsIowa

From what CNN has shown anecdotally it seems like Bernie first, Warren second, Buttigieg third. Seems like they've shown a few schools though where the liberals should do well.

 

[tonydead]

No clue where he's getting this info/data from, but....

David Shuster @DavidShuster

Based on the entrance polling/data, there is now every indication @BernieSanders will win #iowacaucus2020.  Only question is margin.  Buttigieg and Warren battling for 2nd.  #Democrats2020 #BernieWinsIowa

It says entrance polling right there. 538 and the googles have zero percent reporting so its impossible to have anything official. 

 

[Phil Elliott]

Exactly. It’s almost the opposite 65 and up. 

Yep

 

[AAABatteries]

Exactly. It’s almost the opposite 65 and up. 

I should link to my thread about a maximum voting age. 

 

[timschochet]

Joy Reid on MSNBC is already acting as if Biden is done and that blacks are looking for a moderate alternative: Bloomberg or Klobuchar or Buttigieg. 

 

[skol asylum]

If Warren and Bernie teamed up they would be cruising with the moderate vote splintered more.

 

[skol asylum]

Joy Reid on MSNBC is already acting as if Biden is done and that blacks are looking for a moderate alternative: Bloomberg or Klobuchar or Buttigieg. 

Whatever happened to Deval Patrick?

 

[Ditkaless Wonders]

Have scientists done any studies about why Iowa is so boring? I'm generally pretty interested in political stuff, but I can't bring myself to care about tonight's Iowa results at all.

Vowel to consonant ratio in state name is a natural soporific. Preternatural whiteness of population also makes one want to shield their eyes with blackout mask.  Oh, and corn and hogs. 

 

[caustic]

Iowa's biggest precinct just announced its final results - there were 14 delegates up for grabs and Sanders will get 5, Buttigieg will get 5, Warren will get 4.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Iowa's biggest precinct just announced its final results - there were 14 delegates up for grabs and Sanders will get 5, Buttigieg will get 5, Warren will get 4.

Have a feeling Pete's doing very well as a 2nd choice.

 

[Shula-holic]

No clue where he's getting this info/data from, but....

David Shuster @DavidShuster

Based on the entrance polling/data, there is now every indication @BernieSanders will win #iowacaucus2020.  Only question is margin.  Buttigieg and Warren battling for 2nd.  #Democrats2020 #BernieWinsIowa

This would be disastrous for Joe Biden.

 

[ShamrockPride]

It says entrance polling right there. 538 and the googles have zero percent reporting so its impossible to have anything official. 

smh. Thanks.

 

[AAABatteries]

Iowa's biggest precinct just announced its final results - there were 14 delegates up for grabs and Sanders will get 5, Buttigieg will get 5, Warren will get 4.

I'd love for the nominee to come down to Sanders or Pete.

 

[Mister CIA]

I'm bouncing around multiple live streams on YouTube.  Getting a sense that momentum for Buttigieg is building.

 

[caustic]

Have a feeling Pete's doing very well as a 2nd choice.

That's what it looks like. NYT is showing him at third place in the first vote but first place in the final vote so far (only 1% of precincts reporting).

 

[Ditkaless Wonders]

Guys, Agnes Miller from Davenport just switched to Mayor Pete, so, a major shift may be underway. 

His appeal is undeniable in the Agnes and Angus demographic.

 

[tonydead]

Iowa caucus voters favor Medicare for all 57% to 38%.

 

[AAABatteries]

"This is a complicated, long-division formula"

 

[Ditkaless Wonders]

I'm bouncing around multiple live streams on YouTube.  Getting a sense that momentum for Buttigieg is building.

A late push, coming from behind.  I'm pulling for him.

 

[AAABatteries]

A late push, coming from behind.  I'm pulling for him.

I'm afraid to laugh at this.

:noban:

 

[caustic]

Two hours into the process and we barely have any results yet. At this time in 2016 about 80% of precincts were reporting.

 

[NorvilleBarnes]

"At one Des Moines precinct tonight, an attendee brought in a concealed bottle of wine, dropped it, and it shattered everywhere"

 

[Sheriff Bart]

This is such a strange process.

I've never watched a caucus before.   So strange it seems like a political system from a country whose cars get 300 hectares on a single tank of kerosene.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

NATE SILVER

So far, Sarah, I think that we’ve learned that Buttigieg is likely to perform at the higher end of his range and that there probably isn’t going to be a blowout winner tonight. Beyond that, everything is pretty speculative.

 

[ShamrockPride]

Kornacki now saying Iowa saying no ETA on results, and they are taking their time conducting "quality control". Sounds suspect.

 

[timschochet]

Certainly does not look good for Joe Biden. I wasn’t expecting a win tonight but he needed to come in 2nd. It’s sounding like he may be shut out of the top 3. That’s a disaster. 

 

[tonydead]

Who takes time out of their night to come sit in the "uncommitted" circle for an hour?

They came for their candidate, if they are not viable they can go to the uncommitted section to deny the other candidates. For example if Biden supporters are not viable they might want to go deny their support to any more liberal candidates like Warren or Sanders. 

 

[tonydead]

Kornacki now saying Iowa saying no ETA on results, and they are taking their time conducting "quality control". Sounds suspect.

CNN said they were told results at the top of the hour. 

 

[Phil Elliott]

"At one Des Moines precinct tonight, an attendee brought in a concealed bottle of wine, dropped it, and it shattered everywhere"

 

[caustic]

They came for their candidate, if they are not viable they can go to the uncommitted section to deny the other candidates. For example if Biden supporters are not viable they might want to go deny their support to any more liberal candidates like Warren or Sanders. 

So far NYT shows 41 people who went with uncommitted on the first vote.

 

[BassNBrew]

Can anyone explain why 28% gets you two delegates, 26% gets you two delegates, 25% only gets you one delegate.

 

[NorvilleBarnes]

"In a mostly Latino caucus site with 185 voters, berniesanders wins 94% of the vote"

Somewhere Spanish speaking candidates like Beto are kicking things.

 

[AAABatteries]

@Maurile Tremblay - I was just making a dumb joke.  Bored while waiting for actual results.

 

[ShamrockPride]

"In a mostly Latino caucus site with 185 voters, berniesanders wins 94% of the vote"

Somewhere Spanish speaking candidates like Beto are kicking things.

Wow.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

"In a mostly Latino caucus site with 185 voters, berniesanders wins 94% of the vote"

Somewhere Spanish speaking candidates like Beto are kicking things.

Pete speaks 26 languages including Spanish.

 

[huthut]

Can anyone explain why 28% gets you two delegates, 26% gets you two delegates, 25% only gets you one delegate.

I think there are absolute thresholds based on the number of people, so whatever number is 25% is short and whatever is 26% is not.  

 

[NorvilleBarnes]

Can anyone explain why 28% gets you two delegates, 26% gets you two delegates, 25% only gets you one delegate.

Obama can.

Basically it depends on the percentage other other candidates get and the changing relative threshhold for delegates per percent. No one get a 1/2 delegate.