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2020 Republican Primary: Will Trump be challenged? (2 Viewers)

Let's consider some who might be lining up challenge Trump:

  • Flake - IMO the Kavanaugh equivocation was all about this. I think he blew it with his final decision but his book and his tone has been all about running.
  • Haley - just resigned, possibly on principle.
  • Murkowski - The opposite of Flake.
  • Kasich - he's certainly been giving the sense that he will run.
  • Sasse - He's out there holding the line from time to time but when push meets shove he rarely makes much noise.
There is no way Flake can run if he votes against BK, the vote for BK with a moderate tone says he is running.  

Haley, won't run until 2024 but probably a better VP candidate in 2020 if a challenger beats Trump.

Murkowski, won't run in 2020.

Kasich, completely agree on your take. 

Sasse, I don't think he runs against Trump won't go that all in against him.

 
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I think someone like Romney could successfully challenge Trump. He’s the antithesis if Trump as he is polite, well spoken, intelligent, diplomatic, the list goes on.

All that said, I still believe Trump never wanted to win the Presdency in the first place (see the horrified look on his face on election night as he is projected the winner). Trump will not run in 2020.

 
Let's consider some who might be lining up challenge Trump:

  • Flake - IMO the Kavanaugh equivocation was all about this. I think he blew it with his final decision but his book and his tone has been all about running.
  • Haley - just resigned, possibly on principle.
  • Murkowski - The opposite of Flake.
  • Kasich - he's certainly been giving the sense that he will run.
  • Sasse - He's out there holding the line from time to time but when push meets shove he rarely makes much noise.
This doesn't sound like someone resigning on principle and challenging the President in 2020 - 

BREAKING: Nikki Haley is at the White House right now. Trump and Haley will meet in the Oval Office at 10:30a this morning. This will be open to the pool reporters, Sarah Hicks Sanders says.

 
This doesn't sound like someone resigning on principle and challenging the President in 2020 - 

BREAKING: Nikki Haley is at the White House right now. Trump and Haley will meet in the Oval Office at 10:30a this morning. This will be open to the pool reporters, Sarah Hicks Sanders says.
Yes, I suppose let's wait and see.

 
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This doesn't sound like someone resigning on principle and challenging the President in 2020 - 

BREAKING: Nikki Haley is at the White House right now. Trump and Haley will meet in the Oval Office at 10:30a this morning. This will be open to the pool reporters, Sarah Hicks Sanders says.
Well, we're also not used to people showing some sense of public decorum in difficult spots anymore, either. It's possible Haley is just going through it the right way, instead of sending out a tweet in all caps that says "I QUIT! PEACE OUT, MF'ERS!" 

 
Speculating on primary challengers for Trump seems silly with respect to the nature of Trump supporters nationwide. They're not interested in someone better; they admire and appreciate his awfulness just as it is. He just needs to kick puppies on a periodic basis to win over the last few holdouts for whom he hasn't been awful enough.

 
I don't think anyone who wants a future in the GOP can challenge Trump. Kasich seems like the only option because he's already been governor and in Congress. But Trump's popularity is probably too high for a GOP challenge and if he runs as an independent he could help Trump.

 
Speculating on primary challengers for Trump seems silly with respect to the nature of Trump supporters nationwide. They're not interested in someone better; they admire and appreciate his awfulness just as it is. He just needs to kick puppies on a periodic basis to win over the last few holdouts for whom he hasn't been awful enough.
Not all republicans are Trump supporters.

 
Reminder that at least 50 Republicans probably could have swung the election with a Clinton endorsement and thus spared the nation a Trump presidency.  Most of those people knew that Trump would be a disaster and would harm US interests abroad and divide us as much as anything has since the Civil War, and also that he almost certainly sexually assaulted a number of women and harassed many more. And yet not one person had the courage to do it.  A few pulled their endorsements, likely because they thought he'd lose anyway and wanted to avoid the stench of the endorsement. As the old saying goes, "Democrats fall in love, Republicans fall in line."

Nobody's coming to save us from this nightmare. We gotta do it ourselves.

 
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While I hope HRC doesn’t run in 2020, folks who didn’t support her in 2016 have zero credibility to call Democrats “dumb”, at this point.  

In retrospect, anyone with a brain should have not only been voting for HRC, but actively campaigning for her in 2016. 
Actually Trump is accomplishing something no Democrat could. He is cratering the GOP. The have exactly one demographic left. Men, primarily white, over 45. That's it. Hillary would have the GOP chomping to vote Trump has them convinced they don't have to. Their own internal polls show that. A Hillary win would have seen more legislatures go red, no chance of taking the majority in Congress. Instead we have the Democrats with all the energy and the new faces fighting all over this country. Sometimes the kid has to touch the burner to learn not to. Harsh lessons leave lasting memories. This has been pretty darn harsh and will be remembered a long time. If we didn't get a Trump now it would have just been delaying the inevitable. Better to do it now while we still had something left to fight with.

 
This election and then the trajectory of the polls after will determine if there is a primary opponent. Money will be there but they will only run if they think he is wearing out his welcome with all but his most rabid supporters.

 
Speculating on primary challengers for Trump seems silly with respect to the nature of Trump supporters nationwide. They're not interested in someone better; they admire and appreciate his awfulness just as it is. He just needs to kick puppies on a periodic basis to win over the last few holdouts for whom he hasn't been awful enough.
:rolleyes:

 
Admittedly it's a generalization and presumably not true of all Trump supporters, but it's been proven true over and over and over. Trump's base reacts positively to, and is drawn in by, his cruelty towards "others." Trump and the base's behavior during the Kavanaugh debacle made that very clear, if it wasn't already.

 
That was kinda my thought.  Flake seems pretty well disliked by both sides of the spectrum, no?
Seems like it. And I think being on the wrong side of the female vote is going to be a tough space for the next few cycles in many districts and most state or federal runs.

 
Does it even matter? Whoever ran against him would be portrayed as a savior during the primaries and turned into the devil during the general. 

 
People who think Trump will be challenged are making the mistake of looking at the candidates, not the voters. Primary challenges invariably have more to do with dissatisfaction among the party members than the specific candidate who mounts the challenge. Both Buchanan and Reagan were uprisings among conservatives against moderate presidents (Bush Sr. and Ford). Ted Kennedy was the Democratic Establishment rebelling against the outsider Carter. McCarthy was the anti-war wing of the party taking on LBJ.

So tell me, who in the Republican primary electorate will push back against Trump? Never Trump conservatives? That group basically consists of a few people in the MSNBC green room along with John Kasich. Moderate Republicans? They haven't existed for decades. The only groups with enough power to mount a challenge are evangelicals and the business community, and they're both in the tank for Trump. His approval rating among Republicans is as high as it was for W and Obama. (The only reason he's under water is his rating among independents.) There is no space for any potential challenger to carve out a place for himself among the primary electorate.

 
I think someone like Romney could successfully challenge Trump. He’s the antithesis if Trump as he is polite, well spoken, intelligent, diplomatic, the list goes on.

All that said, I still believe Trump never wanted to win the Presdency in the first place (see the horrified look on his face on election night as he is projected the winner). Trump will not run in 2020.
I go back and forth on this - on one hand, I completely agree that he seemed genuinely shocked and knew he was in over his head.  Maybe that translates to not wanting it but not sure.  He's such an egomaniac that I'm sure he was convinced he could do the job.  What gives me more pause now is somebody has to be telling him that the investigations in to his taxes/finances are just going to get worse going forward and if the Dems win the House then they are going to go crazy with investigations.  He may not run out of self-preservation.

 
People who think Trump will be challenged are making the mistake of looking at the candidates, not the voters. Primary challenges invariably have more to do with dissatisfaction among the party members than the specific candidate who mounts the challenge. Both Buchanan and Reagan were uprisings among conservatives against moderate presidents (Bush Sr. and Ford). Ted Kennedy was the Democratic Establishment rebelling against the outsider Carter. McCarthy was the anti-war wing of the party taking on LBJ.

So tell me, who in the Republican primary electorate will push back against Trump? Never Trump conservatives? That group basically consists of a few people in the MSNBC green room along with John Kasich. Moderate Republicans? They haven't existed for decades. The only groups with enough power to mount a challenge are evangelicals and the business community, and they're both in the tank for Trump. His approval rating among Republicans is as high as it was for W and Obama. (The only reason he's under water is his rating among independents.) There is no space for any potential challenger to carve out a place for himself among the primary electorate.
2 years is a long time.  There's many that already see what is happening to their brand and either jumping ship or distancing themselves.  Yes, there's also some that are moving toward the populist and nationalistic policies but I don't think it's a good long-term strategy for the party.  If there really is a blue wave this November and then the next 2 years is more of the same then the GOP leadership would be idiotic to at least not entertain the idea.  I agree with NC, it does appear the only demographic that they have is white males and if this board is any indication, a lot of the more educated white males are jumping ship too.  Maybe it works in 2020 but it seems Trump is dooming the party to irrelevance 20 years down the road.

 
2 years is a long time.  There's many that already see what is happening to their brand and either jumping ship or distancing themselves.  Yes, there's also some that are moving toward the populist and nationalistic policies but I don't think it's a good long-term strategy for the party.  If there really is a blue wave this November and then the next 2 years is more of the same then the GOP leadership would be idiotic to at least not entertain the idea.  I agree with NC, it does appear the only demographic that they have is white males and if this board is any indication, a lot of the more educated white males are jumping ship too.  Maybe it works in 2020 but it seems Trump is dooming the party to irrelevance 20 years down the road.
There's your mistake. The leadership isn't the one making the decision. The inmates are running the asylum. Party leaders all hated Trump during the '16 primaries, and they were ready to drop him when the Access Hollywood tape came out. But they didn't because they realized that the base wasn't behind them.

If sometime in the next couple years Mitch McConnell, Kevin McCarthy and Ronna McDaniel decide that Trump is doing long-term damage to the party (which I agree with, BTW), their ability to do anything about it will be precisely zero. McCarthy, if he even survives as GOP leader in the House, will know that to move against Trump would lead to an immediate coup by Jordan and the House Freedom Caucus. And Trump sure as hell won't agree to stand down.

Put simply, there is no sizable anti-Trump constituency in the Republican party, and until that changes, he won't be challenged.

 
I still think he won’t run for re-election.  
I could see this for a variety of reasons. Mainly he's looking bad, he is old. He can lead his version of a great life being an ex-Prez. He'll say he is going out on his terms and can fight the swamp or whatever his line of BS is better from another position. He'll get an additional 4 years of his life that he won't get if he ran and won or more likely IMO he runs and loses.

 
I still think he won’t run for re-election.  
I could see this for a variety of reasons. Mainly he's looking bad, he is old. He can lead his version of a great life being an ex-Prez. He'll say he is going out on his terms and can fight the swamp or whatever his line of BS is better from another position. He'll get an additional 4 years of his life that he won't get if he ran and won or more likely IMO he runs and loses.
Plus I think he will get to keep all of his unspent reelection $$$$

 
I'm really torn on this prediction. Donald loves being the Big Cheese more than anything else in the world. One of my former employers, co-owner of a small business with his brother, avowed never to retire and I was convinced that he was concerned that he was such an odious individual that no one would ever pay any attention to him at all if he wasn't "ED JONES, PRESIDENT OF JONES WIDGETS." Lack of attention is worth than death for Donald. Besides, what's he gonna do, write his memoirs? That thought makes me giggle just writing it.

 
I'm really torn on this prediction. Donald loves being the Big Cheese more than anything else in the world. One of my former employers, co-owner of a small business with his brother, avowed never to retire and I was convinced that he was concerned that he was such an odious individual that no one would ever pay any attention to him at all if he wasn't "ED JONES, PRESIDENT OF JONES WIDGETS." Lack of attention is worth than death for Donald. Besides, what's he gonna do, write his memoirs? That thought makes me giggle just writing it.
His rallies will never end.

 
There's your mistake. The leadership isn't the one making the decision. The inmates are running the asylum. Party leaders all hated Trump during the '16 primaries, and they were ready to drop him when the Access Hollywood tape came out. But they didn't because they realized that the base wasn't behind them.

If sometime in the next couple years Mitch McConnell, Kevin McCarthy and Ronna McDaniel decide that Trump is doing long-term damage to the party (which I agree with, BTW), their ability to do anything about it will be precisely zero. McCarthy, if he even survives as GOP leader in the House, will know that to move against Trump would lead to an immediate coup by Jordan and the House Freedom Caucus. And Trump sure as hell won't agree to stand down.

Put simply, there is no sizable anti-Trump constituency in the Republican party, and until that changes, he won't be challenged.
There's lots of things Republicans don't fear - being called bigots/racist, being hypocritical, voting for ideology and on and on but the one thing I think they are afraid of is losing power.  If they see an irreversible change coming I could see them dumping Trump.  Maybe I'm wrong and they would be willing to go down with the ship but self-preservation is always something I believe in with virtually all politicians.

 
There's lots of things Republicans don't fear - being called bigots/racist, being hypocritical, voting for ideology and on and on but the one thing I think they are afraid of is losing power.  If they see an irreversible change coming I could see them dumping Trump.  Maybe I'm wrong and they would be willing to go down with the ship but self-preservation is always something I believe in with virtually all politicians.
Somebody -- 538 maybe? -- recently showed statistically how much more entrenched voters on both sides are now with regards to ideology. And how important it is to voters, again of both sides. If policies are that important to you, then maybe it's more understandable how red voters, especially the evangelicals, can vote for awful Donald. Not even his most fervent supporters will admit to admiring his character but by golly he and the other Repubs at the highest levels of government are pulling no punches to (1) get their voters what they want and (2) stay in power. And that seems to be their most attractive characteristic right now.

I don't know if a Dem with Donald's termperament, ego and lack of knowledge and self-awareness could become their candidate for the nation's highest office. But maybe I'm wrong about that.

 
AAABatteries said:
There's lots of things Republicans don't fear - being called bigots/racist, being hypocritical, voting for ideology and on and on but the one thing I think they are afraid of is losing power.  If they see an irreversible change coming I could see them dumping Trump.  Maybe I'm wrong and they would be willing to go down with the ship but self-preservation is always something I believe in with virtually all politicians.
I keep coming back to Access Hollywood. That affects things going forward in a few different ways. First of all, the fact that the base didn't abandon him when he seemed absolutely certain to lose -- and turned on Establishment types like Ryan when they were ready to bail -- suggests that they'll never abandon him. Second, the fact that he won after all that makes it even less likely the base would turn on him in the future, because it "proved" (at least in their minds, and certainly in his) that he's invulnerable. And finally, the entire incident demonstrated once and for all the powerlessness of the GOP Establishment, which gives them even less leverage than they had before to force him out.

 

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