TheIronSheik
SUPER ELITE UPPER TIER
But the central OK PDS Tornado Watch is up. Goes until 10 and pretty much includes all of central OK.SPC site is moving at a crawl.
But the central OK PDS Tornado Watch is up. Goes until 10 and pretty much includes all of central OK.SPC site is moving at a crawl.
* Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 135 PM until 1000 PM CDT. ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION... * Primary threats include... Numerous tornadoes and several intense tornadoes expected Widespread damaging winds and scattered significant gusts to 80 mph expected Widespread large hail and scattered very large hail events to 4 inches in diameter expectedBut the central OK PDS Tornado Watch is up. Goes until 10 and pretty much includes all of central OK.
Kansas is getting heavy rain and some severe storms. But the events in OK haven't begun yet. The dryline will push across TX and OK and there will be huge supercells that blow up. For the big EF-5 type tornadoes, they will almost always spawn from supercells. A strong line of storms can create tornadoes, but they are usually lower end twisters. So while the radar looks impressive in Kansas, that's not the type of system that creates the dangerous HIGH risk days. It's what's draped to the south of it that is the scary part. The atmosphere is incredibly unstable and these supercells have the potential to rise way up.Looking at radar it seems to my untrained eye that Kansas is getting it much worse than OK.
Yup. That was the Super Outbreak of 2011. Worst outbreak in US history.@NWSSPC: PDS Tornado Watch # 199 is coming for Oklahoma. This is only the second watch in SPC history where every category of watch probabilities (torn, wind, hail) are at greater than 95%.
The only other watch like this was issued for Alabama on 27 April 2011. https://twitter.com/NWSSPC/status/1130542973060562946/photo/1
Yup. Just saw a tweet from Dr. Rick Nabb saying that the event is officially getting started. I'll be on here until about 4:15 ET, but keep an eye to your local weather outlets. Be safe. This is going to be very bad.First tornado warning going up in W OK. Radar is just blowing up in Western OK, just like it was forecast.
See you guys on the other side.
I've been watching the local weather and Weather Channel all day. I enjoy watching the coverage, even tho it scares me when it's in my neck of the woods.Yup. Just saw a tweet from Dr. Rick Nabb saying that the event is officially getting started. I'll be on here until about 4:15 ET, but keep an eye to your local weather outlets. Be safe. This is going to be very bad.
Checking in. Pretty lame at my house yesterday. Didn't start raining until after 8pm. Got severe thunderstorms and a little flooding around but nothing too bad.
Yeah, line moved much slower than anticipated. A lot of the northern edges of the risk area got cooled down too quickly, limiting tornadoes up there.Checking in. Pretty lame at my house yesterday. Didn't start raining until after 8pm. Got severe thunderstorms and a little flooding around but nothing too bad.
People always say this. To this I respond I've lived in OK over 40 years, I've never had a structure I lived in damaged by a tornado. I've seen tornadoes, I've seen large hail, I've helped after several tornadoes. It is what it is and is part of life to me. Every place has its good and its bad, but I like the people and the cost of living.I don't know if I could live in OK. Maybe you just get used to it, but going through a day like yesterday has to be terrifying. At least, for me, it would be.
Yeah, I didn't mean it by a knock or anything. I think the same thing about places that have earthquakes or lava flows. But at the same time, I've heard people from those places say they don't think they could live in a place that gets tropical storms or blizzards. So I totally get that.People always say this. To this I respond I've lived in OK over 40 years, I've never had a structure I lived in damaged by a tornado. I've seen tornadoes, I've seen large hail, I've helped after several tornadoes. It is what it is and is part of life to me. Every place has its good and its bad, but I like the people and the cost of living.
Yesterday was scary, but we have really good weather folks here and I know to pay attention to the weather from mid-March to mid-June. Just a part of life to me.
I'm seeing talk from reputable mets in this area saying we could see the level raised to MODERATE. I can't remember the last time my area was in MODERATE. I'm working on a pet project to show how many times my location has seen a risk since the categories were expanded back in Oct of 2014. As of now, I haven't seen a MODERATE risk for us.Another round of severe weather in the same area that's been hammered the past 3 days.
Tomorrow, my area gets in on the action. We are in the ENHANCED risk, which is pretty much the highest we see in this area. We average about 2 of these risk days a year for my location. So could be interesting.
I figured Mt. Olympus would be immune to Super CellsI'm seeing talk from reputable mets in this area saying we could see the level raised to MODERATE. I can't remember the last time my area was in MODERATE. I'm working on a pet project to show how many times my location has seen a risk since the categories were expanded back in Oct of 2014. As of now, I haven't seen a MODERATE risk for us.
The reason for the possible upgrade is the formation of supercells that have a good possibility of producing tornadoes. Supercells are not common up this way. Should be an interesting day. Looks like 5 to 9 will be the timeframe.
TIS - Quick question re. timing - my wife is looking to fly from Newark to Pittsburgh tomorrow night - impacts?No upgrade with the newest update. Models have backed off slightly, but still a possible dangerous situation for almost all of PA tomorrow.
It looks like the timeframe will be between 5 and 9 at this point for our area. I'm not much of a pilot, but I would imagine it will be a possibly bumpy ride.TIS - Quick question re. timing - my wife is looking to fly from Newark to Pittsburgh tomorrow night - impacts?
We got 3-4 straight days 95 and above here in central MS....I'm not sure its unheard of, but its not the norm for May. No rain in sight after the wettest winter/spring I can remember.JaxBill said:Meanwhile we're bracing for a huge heat wave in the Southeast. Starting Saturday predicted highs are 99-103 with little to no rain for a solid week.
Today is merely 96.
Update for Central PA?TheIronSheik said:No upgrade with the newest update. Models have backed off slightly, but still a possible dangerous situation for almost all of PA tomorrow.
SPC still has us in the ENHANCED risk category. Everything hinges on how much heat we get this afternoon. If the clouds stick around longer than expected, severe weather won't be as bad as advertised. But if the sun comes out and heats up the atmosphere, it'll be a wild day. The threat of tornadoes has gone down considerably, but still there. I think the time frame will be sooner than originally thought. Maybe like 2 to 7. I think this will be a day where not everyone sees the big storms, but the places that do will get hit fairly good.Update for Central PA?
The barges are stuck on a rock outcropping and officials are trying to secure them. This update is from 3 hours ago, I can't find anything additional.Seeing on twitter that two barges are out of control in Arkansas River and going to impact a dam near Webbers Falls, OK. They are evacuating the entire town and saying flooding will be catastrophic if the dam breaks
The more I'm looking at the setup, the less I'm liking the severe threat. Not saying it won't happen, but it really seems like a lot of things are working against it right now. Right now, I think we have a better chance of normal spring thunderstorms rather than an ENHANCED threat level. We'll see here soon, I guess.SPC still has us in the ENHANCED risk category. Everything hinges on how much heat we get this afternoon. If the clouds stick around longer than expected, severe weather won't be as bad as advertised. But if the sun comes out and heats up the atmosphere, it'll be a wild day. The threat of tornadoes has gone down considerably, but still there. I think the time frame will be sooner than originally thought. Maybe like 2 to 7. I think this will be a day where not everyone sees the big storms, but the places that do will get hit fairly good.
I haven't seen if it's been officially called it yet, but it looked like a derecho. Bow echos are usually small and localized, where when the entire line is a bow echo, it's a derecho. Can pack some seriously damaging winds.We had a big line of heavy storms roll thru northern IN about 5:30AM today. Radar looked like the classic "bow echo" shape. Appears to be in W PA now but with less solid angry red.
Yeah that's the term I was thinking of. Didn't know the distinction, thanks.I haven't seen if it's been officially called it yet, but it looked like a derecho. Bow echos are usually small and localized, where when the entire line is a bow echo, it's a derecho. Can pack some seriously damaging winds.
Oddly enough, that's what's going to probably kill the chances of really bad storms here in PA. That line is going to sop up any instability and give us strong to severe storms. But it'll also be the reason we don't see the big super cells.
We already have wildfires popping up here in N Florida. One may impact holiday travel as its adjacent to I95 IN extreme northern FloridaWe got 3-4 straight days 95 and above here in central MS....I'm not sure its unheard of, but its not the norm for May. No rain in sight after the wettest winter/spring I can remember.
10:53 a.m. UPDATE: Oklahoma Highway Patrol officials say the barges are again loose in the Arkansas River heading toward the Webbers Falls Locak & DamThe barges are stuck on a rock outcropping and officials are trying to secure them. This update is from 3 hours ago, I can't find anything additional.
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TX panhandle was also upgraded to MODERATE. It's hard to focus on other areas when my area is in the bullseye, but I did want to at least mention this.New update from the SPC keeps everyone pretty much in ENHANCED risk. I think this is a "better safe than sorry" move. More so for E PA. Central PA will have the best chance to see really severe weather. In fact, new MD just went up for Central PA.
:(10:53 a.m. UPDATE: Oklahoma Highway Patrol officials say the barges are again loose in the Arkansas River heading toward the Webbers Falls Locak & Dam
@pattycrosbyUGA: Fire delay on 95 N near mile marker 367. @Katie_Jeffries @FCN2go https://twitter.com/pattycrosbyUGA/status/1131580788980572160/photo/1We already have wildfires popping up here in N Florida. One may impact holiday travel as its adjacent to I95 IN extreme northern Florida
They just hit the dam but looks like it held up at least for nowThe barges are stuck on a rock outcropping and officials are trying to secure them. This update is from 3 hours ago, I can't find anything additional.
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Just had a line move through , ton of rain , nothing elseNew update from the SPC keeps everyone pretty much in ENHANCED risk. I think this is a "better safe than sorry" move. More so for E PA. Central PA will have the best chance to see really severe weather. In fact, new MD just went up for Central PA.
So, just to be clear, this line moving through is the appetizer to the main event. IF there is a main event. If clearing happens and the air is able to get a lot more instability in it, that's where the supercells would pop up. But it all hinges on how quickly this line moves through and how much the sun can heat back up the atmosphere.Just had a line move through , ton of rain , nothing else
RightSo, just to be clear, this line moving through is the appetizer to the main event. IF there is a main event. If clearing happens and the air is able to get a lot more instability in it, that's where the supercells would pop up. But it all hinges on how quickly this line moves through and how much the sun can heat back up the atmosphere.