Courtesy of
Survivorgrid.com the top 5 EV (combination of point spread and pick popularity) plays of the week are:
KC @ LAC, TB vs CAR, BAL @ HOU, TEN vs JAX, PIT vs DEN
SF@NYJ is most popular (20.6%) but 6th in W% (72.9%) and has better future value than TB, TEN, PIT
ARI vs WAS, CLE vs CIN, and CHI vs NYJ also interesting because of little future value.
Plotting ahead the two options that seems to fit the best for me are TB vs CAR and TEN vas JAX.
Dodds Game Predictor has TB as 8.8 favorites and TEN as 9.7 point favorites.
TB has a GOOD passing matchup and a GOOD rushing matchup.
CAR has a GOOD passing matchup and a BAD rushing matchup (But CMC so
)
TEN has a GOOD passing matchup and a GOOD rushing matchup.
JAX has a NEUTRAL passing matchup and a NEUTRAL rushing matchup.
Seems like a toss up so I'm going TEN because I may use TB vs LAC in week 4 (top 4 play that week with BAL, KC, LAR) but I don't see another spot where I'd use TEN.
One thing that bothers me is I see all experts picking TB and TEN this week EXCEPT for Dan Graziano who picked JAX and went 12-4 in week 1.