I can understanding not having an issue with who a candidate takes money. But I'm really struggling to come up with a reason why someone would believe the bolded.
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2020: The Race For the White House - The Good Place (1 Viewer)
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timschochet
Footballguy
I tend to like corporate donations because they represent slow, thoughtful change, as opposed to quick, populist change, which I find to be very dangerous.
ETA- However, there should be restrictions, and limitations.
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Mystery Achiever
Footballguy
So, Warren transfers money from her Senate campaign (that did come from big donors) so she can make a big deal about not taking money from big donors until she again takes money from big donors?
Not disingenuous at all.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2019/05/23/democratic_pledges_against_big_money_come_with_an_asterisk_140407.html
Not disingenuous at all.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2019/05/23/democratic_pledges_against_big_money_come_with_an_asterisk_140407.html
fatguyinalittlecoat
Footballguy
Do you think that Elizabeth Warren is going to become cozy with corporations and Wall Street if she gets elected? It seems like her entire political career has been built on criticism of those groups, I have a hard time believing that she would change her perspective due to campaign contributions. After all, you've already acknowledged that she had big money fundraisers in her Senate run but that doesn't seem to have changed her views in the Senate as far as I can tell.
Mystery Achiever
Footballguy
@fatguyinalittlecoat No, I don't believe that. I actually don't have a problem with big money donations. I have a problem with being disingenuous, which I've used to describe her for some time.
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NCCommish
Footballguy
Come on. You dont get that money in a general without strings. If they didn't think she'd play ball you wouldn't have Third Way types talking her up. She is already backsliding on Medicare for All for instance and she hasn't won anything. Whats going to change when she starts getting 100s of millions in legal bribes?The rich and powerful fear exactly one candidate in this race and it isn't Warren.
NCCommish
Footballguy
Yeah that is pretty naive especially in the face of all the evidence that shows that only people who write big checks are getting what they want from our government. There is virtually no correlation between what the public wants and what gets done. And there is a very high correlation to what wealthy donors want and what gets done.
fatguyinalittlecoat
Footballguy
Mystery Achiever
Footballguy
urbanhack
Fight The Power!
timschochet
Footballguy
timschochet
Footballguy
Reason I asked is because people predicting Warren remind me a little of the people (including myself, BTW) who predicted Rubio would be the nominee in 2016 for the Republicans. We all kept assuming that Trump would fade eventually or quit, nobody believed that with all his mistakes and gaffes he would survive. Yet he stayed in the lead.
Max Power
Footballguy
Mister CIA
Footballguy
Just like they were casting fear in 2008.
I'm too lazy to go pull up Daily Show clip from 2008/2009 where Jon Stewart eviscerated Jim Cramer, but it was great.
caustic
Footballguy
Not just stayed in the lead, but built his lead more and more as time went on. Trump & Biden trajectories seem pretty different in this way - in 2016, people flocked to Trump as the primary progressed, while some people seem eager to peel away from Biden as they learn about other candidates. Biden is down 10% nationally since his high water mark in May, while Warren is up 10% since then. Obviously Biden is still the frontrunner, but he's showing some cracks that Trump never really did.
timschochet
Footballguy
True. But what’s remarkable is that, even as Biden’s numbers have gone down slightly overall, they’ve actually increased among black voters, who as I keep pointing out are the key to the Democratic nomination.
Max Power
Footballguy
We will see if the Black vote actually comes out for Biden in the primaries. The polls show there isn't a whole lot of enthusiasm for a Biden presidency.
I'd imagine other candidates will continue to highlight his history with black voters which won't do anything to increase that enthusiasm.
I'd imagine other candidates will continue to highlight his history with black voters which won't do anything to increase that enthusiasm.
ren hoek
Footballguy
That was the one thing pro-Biden pundits hadn’t counted on- that voters would have eyeballs and ears to judge Biden for themselves, apart from the media spin that had been created for him. The way they regularly insult people’s intelligence with their horse race analysis feels eerily similar to 2016.
ren hoek
Footballguy
Warren has already declared she will take corporate cash for the general election. Everything she has claimed to fight against, she will cave to going forward. She’s been talking to Hillary people, developing public/private positions. She took Trump’s bait with the Pocahontas stuff, didn’t stand up for native Americans at Standing Rock when she should have. She advocates progressive ideas like a “green” military industrial complex. When asked about voting for Trump’s military budgets, she couldn’t explain why she voted to give $80B to the “giant defense industry”. She’s already bought! It’s Hillary 2.0
timschochet
Footballguy
OK so here is the biggest risk for Biden: that if he loses Iowa or New Hampshire or both, the South Carolina firewall will fade away. Right now I don’t see that happening. It very well could IF it becomes a two person race.
timschochet
Footballguy
It would be interesting if Bernie were to make some of these arguments.
But I don’t think it will matter. That Iowa poll I quoted earlier appears to be an outlier; every other poll, both nationally and state by state has Warren gaining among progressives at Bernie’s expense. In fact Warren is a clear 2nd place now.
timschochet
Footballguy
Good article on Wisconsin, and the trouble Trump is in there for 2020:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.politico.com/amp/story/2019/09/18/trump-wisconsin-suburbs-milwaukee-1501805
It’s relevant to this thread because Republican operatives believe that a Warren or Sanders candidacy would cure all of their problems; it would unite the Trump supporters with the Never Trumpers who would hold their noses and vote for Trump.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.politico.com/amp/story/2019/09/18/trump-wisconsin-suburbs-milwaukee-1501805
It’s relevant to this thread because Republican operatives believe that a Warren or Sanders candidacy would cure all of their problems; it would unite the Trump supporters with the Never Trumpers who would hold their noses and vote for Trump.
H Jass
Footballguy
I thought I saw Biden down in both Iowa and NH, right? I thought Warren was up in Iowa (and given her crowds, I could easily see her taking Iowa) and Bernie in NH. To be fair, my brain could be jumbled from info overload.
timschochet
Footballguy
identikit
Footballguy
Last I saw, Sanders had a solid lead over both of them in NH.
Was just before the last debate though IIRC.
Sheriff Bart
Footballguy
Cramer, who is a Trump supporter, controls the conversation so a bit skewed and WF deserves to be beat down.
Mystery Achiever
Footballguy
Why do you think that? Never been my impression. He's seems somewhat liberal. Also, WF = Wells Fargo?
And, it wasn't just Cramer, but also Faber who said they've heard that. Not that it is even a little surprising bank CEOs would not be fans of hers.
timschochet
Footballguy
What’s funny is that, if you listen to @NCCommish and @ren hoek, she might as well be married to them.
Younger Black Voters to Their Parents: Break Up With Joe Biden, I’m Bored
An organic effort by black millennials and Gen Z-ers to influence their older family members may be key to overtaking Mr. Biden in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination.
NYT article for @timschochet
It underscores Tim's contention that Biden's support among black voters is the key to his nomination, but it also points to the generation gap that exists among all voters when it comes to Biden.
An organic effort by black millennials and Gen Z-ers to influence their older family members may be key to overtaking Mr. Biden in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination.
NYT article for @timschochet
It underscores Tim's contention that Biden's support among black voters is the key to his nomination, but it also points to the generation gap that exists among all voters when it comes to Biden.
timschochet
Footballguy
Older blacks vote, particularly in the South. Younger blacks don’t.
That’s been the rule for like, forever. Of course if young people voted in general at the same rates as everybody else our entire political system would be transformed. Bernie Sanders would probably be the strong favorite to be our next President, or perhaps he would be President already.
Mystery Achiever
Footballguy
When you mentioned earlier that millenials don't vote, I did a little reading, incl. this article. It depressed me.
http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2018/10/12-young-people-on-why-they-probably-wont-vote.html
http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2018/10/12-young-people-on-why-they-probably-wont-vote.html
Mile High
Footballguy
timschochet
Footballguy
The Commish
Footballguy
I think the good news here is the 2018 mid terms saw this demo's turnout almost double....from 20% all the way up to 36%....trying to stay positive here.
roadkill1292
Footballguy
Participation levels have pretty much always followed an age curve, this isn't particularly new. Dems really need to push that they're (young voters) in a position to be huge difference makers in future elections because of their numbers. Voters under 40, I think it was, already cast more ballots than those over 65 did last year.I think the good news here is the 2018 mid terms saw this demo's turnout almost double....from 20% all the way up to 36%....trying to stay positive here.
The Commish
Footballguy
No....I get that the older you get, the more you vote. What I am saying is that with young voters, their participation increased significantly in 2018
roadkill1292
Footballguy
Yes, I totally blew past that point, which is an excellent one. Participation increases in '18 -- it was a huge turnout for a midterm -- were almost solely attributable to young voters. And they had a cumulatively large effect. Somehow we need to keep that enthusiasm level high because the next generations are opposed to Republicans by 2-1 margins and we can't make the country better with the GOP holding onto minority power.
The Commish
Footballguy
Slap it high
Still a long way to go with the gerrymandering and deep seeded "tradition" but this increase gives me hope that the change will be generational.
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Mystery Achiever
Footballguy
This is where the Parkland kids bus tour and efforts to register kids at concerts could make a difference.
. But registration doesn't necessarily translate to turnout.
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/01/ariana-grandes-sweetener-tour-drives-record-voter-registration-at-concerts.html
. But registration doesn't necessarily translate to turnout.
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/01/ariana-grandes-sweetener-tour-drives-record-voter-registration-at-concerts.html
timschochet
Footballguy
If there are any two issues that will bring young voters out, it will be gun control and climate change.
fatguyinalittlecoat
Footballguy
Mystery Achiever
Footballguy
Do any swing states, have legalization on the 2020 ballot?
fatguyinalittlecoat
Footballguy
According to USA Today both Arizona and Florida are likely to have recreational weed on the ballot in 2020.
Apple Jack
Footballguy
Mystery Achiever
Footballguy
Thanks, that's interesting
Fair point; should have added a "commensurately".
urbanhack
Fight The Power!
This is your president folks. Our military didn’t have ammunition when he took office.
https://twitter.com/rubengallego/status/1175090212495663105?s=21
https://twitter.com/rubengallego/status/1175090212495663105?s=21
The General
Footballguy
One of these threads a few weeks back there was talk about how Trump hasn’t aged.
Watching his press conference today he looked unwell. Huge grey bags under the eyes, the hair is looking thin and grey, he continues to get fatter.
Watching his press conference today he looked unwell. Huge grey bags under the eyes, the hair is looking thin and grey, he continues to get fatter.
-fish-
Footballguy
The weird thing isn't that he lies so much, but that he lies about stupid things that: (1) there's no reason to lie about; and (2) are easily proven to be lies.
timschochet
Footballguy
Putting aside Trump’s phone call, is there anything at all to this Biden story? (About Hunter, the Ukraine, Biden exerting influence, etc) Because I don’t want him chosen as the nominee and then be hit with this mess. That’s all we need at this point.
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