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2021-22 NBA Thread: Bill Simmons furiously recording 2.5 hour long pod about how Boston is still better than Golden State (2 Viewers)

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Frostillicus said:
Wolves!
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Congrats GB. I think I mentioned to you earlier in this thread or the thread where we drafted teams that the Wolves were not a dead playoff team and that they could give their opposition trouble.  Don’t kid yourself—Talent-wise —-the Wolves  are very solid. They have talent at the guard position, they have talent at the wing position and they have talent in regards to having a quality big man. They also have depth. I personally think Beasley is one of the more underrated bench guys in the league.  When they are playing together, smart and are executing—they can beat just about anybody. 

 
jvdesigns2002 said:
Congrats GB. I think I mentioned to you earlier in this thread or the thread where we drafted teams that the Wolves were not a dead playoff team and that they could give their opposition trouble.  Don’t kid yourself—Talent-wise —-the Wolves  are very solid. They have talent at the guard position, they have talent at the wing position and they have talent in regards to having a quality big man. They also have depth. I personally think Beasley is one of the more underrated bench guys in the league.  When they are playing together, smart and are executing—they can beat just about anybody. 
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Wolves started this year 11 and fifteen, which means they closed out at thirty five and 21. Thats a six twenty five clip which would be the five seed. They finished up at 14 and 7, which would be the 3 seed over the full season. They are no joke. 

My five, six, and minus key don't work on this keyboard. 

 
Also the wolves have a sort of big 3, and as long as 2 of them are playing well they are going to be in every game. And becasue Ant is on a rookie salary they haven't had to cut corners and have a really nice supporting group. Beasley, like @jvdesigns2002 said, is a huge part of their success of the bench. Jarred Vanderbilt and Jaden McDaniels are the exact kind of guys you want in terms of long, lanky, and athletic defenders. 

Towns can be too dumb, Ant can be too young, and DLo can be too erratic so even one series win would be a resounding success, but they're set up really well for the future. Which has always gone really well for the Wolves in the past so what could go wrong?

 
Anarchy99 said:
Vegas initially set the Nets as the favorite to beat the Celtics (and to come out of the East). That flipped in less than a day. But the odds to win the overall championship at some sports books still have the Nets favored over the Celtics (ie, those odds haven't changed). I agree . . . that doesn't make any sense. But some sites have the Celtics favored to win the series against the Nets . . . but to bet on who wins the championship the Nets rank higher than the Celtics do. Vegas sets lines based on who people bet on, so people betting the BOS / BRK series are putting their money on the Celtics, while people putting money to win the title are laying it on the Nets.
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Defending champs, the team with the league's best two-way player, STILL getting no damn respect. SMDH. Bring it on. Bucks in six.

 
This was the definition of an ugly win being better than a pretty loss.

To shoot 40% from the floor and 65% from the line and turn the ball over 21 times and WIN? That’s something else.

Hard to envision both Khris and Jrue playing that poorly again this series.

Bucks 4-0.

PS: I might hate Caruso more than Trae.

 
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identikit said:
I think Chicago will shoot better than 32% from the field next game
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Agreed. But Bucks will shoot better than 40%, too, and they won’t turn it over 20+ times, either. And most importantly, I’ll be there cheering.

Good guys by double digits. 

 
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I just caught the 4th quarter but that MIL v. CHI game sure was ugly.  Amazing Chicago still had a chance with Derozan shooting like that.  

 
Welp, game 1 went about like I expected. Not counting us out yet, we were within 6 on something like 32% shooting, and double our total first half scoring in the third alone. Was afraid it was going to be a 20+ blowout after the first quarter. Was glad to see us fight and claw back to single digits. We had some bright spots, but definitely need some adjustments. Like maybe injure Chris Paul? :lol: dude was unreal. Stings a little bit extra knowing he used to be one of us. 

Overall some good games on the day. Gotta love playoff season!

 
This feels a lot like 2015 to me. We've got a team out west that was clearly the best in the league in the regular season, but neither the team nor any of the key players has won a title before, so everyone's looking for reasons to doubt them in the playoffs and pick someone else from a fairly wide-open field.

I think I might do what I did in 2015 and dump way too much money on a futures bet on said Western Conference team.

 
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Toby2ElectricBugaloo said:
This feels a lot like 2015 to me. We've got a team out west that was clearly the best in the league in the regular season, but neither the team nor any of the key players has won a title before, so everyone's looking for reasons to doubt them in the playoffs and pick someone else from a fairly wide-open field.

I think I might do what I did in 2015 and dump way too much money on a futures bet on said Western Conference team.
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A difference being there is no LeBron in his prime led Cleveland team as a favorite in the East.  The East is a quagmire right now with 5 teams that have a legitimate chance to make the Finals.

 
Jayrod said:
A difference being there is no LeBron in his prime led Cleveland team as a favorite in the East.  The East is a quagmire right now with 5 teams that have a legitimate chance to make the Finals.
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True, but to me that's even more reason to favor the Suns here. Of the 8 or so teams I consider legit title contenders (top 3 in West, top 4 + Nets in east), the Suns have by far the easiest path to the Finals.

 
wikkidpissah said:
stat of the day: Steph, Klay & Poole have been on the court together for a scant 129 minutes this season. the Warriors are +96 in that time
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It is the greatest trio of outside shooting we've seen in the history of basketball.  It is what Durant/Harden/Kyrie tried to be, but with less stupidity.

 
gruecd said:
This was the definition of an ugly win being better than a pretty loss.

To shoot 40% from the floor and 65% from the line and turn the ball over 21 times and WIN? That’s something else.

Hard to envision both Khris and Jrue playing that poorly again this series.

Bucks 4-0.

PS: I might hate Caruso more than Trae.
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Have you watched a Bucks playoff series yet? Every game 1 is a struggle.

Bucks by 20+ in game 2. Book it.

 
remember, my gambling friends, one of the best bets in sports is to reverse the game 1 outcome ATS for game 2 of any NBA playoff series. not knowing the spreads, i dont know who covered and therefore cant tell you specifically who to bet, but game 1 coverers wont cover game 2 at a rate over 70%.

 
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Suns :towelwave:

Caught most of Bulls game before Suns and was stunned it was even that close. They played horrible....but they've played horrible for months now. I'd be surprised if Milw lost a game to them. You really see Lonzos impact on the team (creates easy shots for others.....plus his defense/ability to stick 3 ball 🏀). He's exactly what theyve needed for so many years....a distributor that can create easy shots for others. 🏀

 
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Jayrod's super official playoff rankings (from who is most likely to win the title to least likely):

  1. Suns - objectively the best all-around team and the bottom of the West is weaker than the bottom of the East.  They'll face only one title contender before the Finals.
  2. Bucks - defending champs we're rusty in game 1, but have the horses and the experience to get back, making them a slight favorite out of the East.
  3. Heat - they check all the boxes and we forget they were in the Finals just 2 years ago.  Too many people sleeping on them and they will waltz into the ECF with at most 2 losses.
  4. Warriors - finally healthy, superstars and championship experience. If they weren't in the West, I'd have them above the Heat, but they are a good tick below the Suns, so I just don't see them getting out of the West....but if they do, it would mean they've started clicking again and anyone from the East would be in for a ride.
  5. Celtics - if they can survive Brooklyn and get Robert Williams back, that series with Milwaukee will be awesome and I think they are definitely good enough to beat Miami.  I just don't think they can beat the Bucks.
  6. Grizzlies - the belle of the ball, but came out the gate slow with re-incorporating Ja Morant back into the fold against a red-hot T-Wolves team.  I think they can get out of the first round, but they have a dog fight on their hands.
  7. Nets - I don't think they get past Boston, but if they do, I don't think they get past Milwaukee, but if they do get that far, then I think they will beat the Heat and play in the Finals. Toughest road to get there, but they have top 5 talent.
  8. 76ers - I didn't think they'd beat the Raptors, but they got the first win with ease.  We'll see how the series plays out, but I expect them to lose at least a couple in the first round and face a superior team in Miami.  That said, Embiid is a problem for every team and he has some help with Maxey.  If Harden would get back to playing great on a more consistent basis, they could have something.  This may be the team I'm way off on and I may have some green colored glasses here, but they just feel like another disappointment.
  9. Jazz - I would have had Dallas here (probably even a spot or two higher) if it wasn't for Doncic's injury.  He still may come back, but the Jazz will likely be coming home up 2-0.  They have a punchers chance against the Suns, but I think they'll fall in 5 or 6 games.
  10. Raptors - I like their pluck and think they could still catch Philly off guard, but they are a poor man's version of Miami...who would be their 2nd round opponent.  A first round victory would be a win.
  11. Timberwolves - These guys look great right now.  They could be for real, but they seem like an inexperienced and inconsistent team that will look phenomenal at times and then leave you scratching your head for a bit from game to game and even quarter to quarter.
  12. Mavericks - no Donic = no bueno. If he can come back from injury and rally them past a likely 2-0 hole vs the Jazz on the road, then they have to beat the Suns.  They are better than the 3 teams above them, but I just don't think either of those things are likely.  Tough break, Dallas (again).
  13. Nuggets - the likely 2x MVP has the worst supporting cast in the playoffs.  They will likely get swept by the Warriors but I'd like their chances against either Memphis or Minnesota better in the 2nd round.  Jokic just can't do enough to get them past that.
  14. Bulls - they showed some fight last night, but they are likely going to get swept, or at best, win 1 game. Their road is the same as Brooklyn's and is just too much to ask of this team who played their best basketball way back in December.
  15. Hawks - Trae may get a game or two on his own, but they just don't have what it takes to win 2 series this season, much less 4.  And as I keep mentioning, there is no easy path out of the East.
  16. Pelicans - Thanks for playing.  Enjoy your vacation, figure out what to do with Zion and come back better next year.
 
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Jayrod said:
Jayrod's super official playoff rankings (from who is most likely to win the title to least likely):

  1. Suns - objectively the best all-around team and the bottom of the West is weaker than the bottom of the East.  They'll face only one title contender before the Finals.
  2. Bucks - defending champs we're rusty in game 1, but have the horses and the experience to get back, making them a slight favorite out of the East.
  3. Heat - they check all the boxes and we forget they were in the Finals just 2 years ago.  Too many people sleeping on them and they will waltz into the ECF with at most 2 losses.
  4. Warriors - finally healthy, superstars and championship experience. If they weren't in the West, I'd have them above the Heat, but they are a good tick below the Suns, so I just don't see them getting out of the West....but if they do, it would mean they've started clicking again and anyone from the East would be in for a ride.
  5. Celtics - if they can survive Brooklyn and get Robert Williams back, that series with Milwaukee will be awesome and I think they are definitely good enough to beat Miami.  I just don't think they can beat the Bucks.
  6. Grizzlies - the belle of the ball, but came out the gate slow with re-incorporating Ja Morant back into the fold against a red-hot T-Wolves team.  I think they can get out of the first round, but they have a dog fight on their hands.
  7. Nets - I don't think they get past Boston, but if they do, I don't think they get past Milwaukee, but if they do get that far, then I think they will beat the Heat and play in the Finals. Toughest road to get there, but they have top 5 talent.
  8. 76ers - I didn't think they'd beat the Raptors, but they got the first win with ease.  We'll see how the series plays out, but I expect them to lose at least a couple in the first round and face a superior team in Miami.  That said, Embiid is a problem for every team and he has some help with Maxey.  If Harden would get back to playing great on a more consistent basis, they could have something.  This may be the team I'm way off on and I may have some green colored glasses here, but they just feel like another disappointment.
  9. Jazz - I would have had Dallas here (probably even a spot or two higher) if it wasn't for Doncic's injury.  He still may come back, but the Jazz will likely be coming home up 2-0.  They have a punchers chance against the Suns, but I think they'll fall in 5 or 6 games.
  10. Raptors - I like their pluck and think they could still catch Philly off guard, but they are a poor man's version of Miami...who would be their 2nd round opponent.  A first round victory would be a win.
  11. Timberwolves - These guys look great right now.  They could be for real, but they seem like an inexperienced and inconsistent team that will look phenomenal at times and then leave you scratching your head for a bit from game to game and even quarter to quarter.
  12. Mavericks - no Donic = no bueno. If he can come back from injury and rally them past a likely 2-0 hole vs the Jazz on the road, then they have to beat the Suns.  They are better than the 3 teams above them, but I just don't think either of those things are likely.  Tough break, Dallas (again).
  13. Nuggets - the likely 2x MVP has the worst supporting cast in the playoffs.  They will likely get swept by the Warriors but I'd like their chances against either Memphis or Minnesota better in the 2nd round.  Jokic just can't do enough to get them past that.
  14. Chicago - they showed some fight last night, but they are likely going to get swept, or at best, win 1 game. Their road is the same as Brooklyn's and is just too much to ask of this team who played their best basketball way back in December.
  15. Hawks - Trae may get a game or two on his own, but they just don't have what it takes to win 2 series this season, much less 4.  And as I keep mentioning, there is no easy path out of the East.
  16. Pelicans - Thanks for playing.  Enjoy your vacation, figure out what to do with Zion and come back better next year.
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I think the Celtics match up better with the Bucks than they do with the Heat. They can utilize the same strategy on Giannis as they did on KD . . . get physical and throw multiple bodies at him. That won't stop him . . . but they could make him inefficient.

What's interesting about Boston is their efficiency numbers on the season are essentially the same as the Suns. Both had net ratings of +7.5 and based on the numbers each should have won 59 games. The difference is the C's were close to even the first half of the season and nearly +15 in net rating over the second half of the season (which is why the geeky analytic sites love their chances). Lots of folks are poo-pooing the Celtics chances, but they went to the ECFs 3 times in the past 5 years.

IMO, if Tatum and Brown are close in combined scoring to KD and Kyrie each game, Boston has a better supporting cast and defense to win those games. The Jays had 54 points in Game 1 to 62 points for Kyrie and KD. I would expect the Jays to score more in Game 2 to counter Durant having a better game (and Kyrie should score less this time around).

The Nets shot it very well (54%) while the Celtics clanked a ton of shots at the rim. That will even out at some point, which will also benefit Boston. We'll see how it goes, but the Celts should be able to beat the Nets.

 
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