2021-22 NBA Thread: Bill Simmons furiously recording 2.5 hour long pod about how Boston is still better than Golden State (2 Viewers)

[Gatorman]

Heat fan here. Proud of them. All the injuries, all the pain, it all came down to jimmy deciding to pull up rather than drive on my gator buddy Al Horford. He pulled the same “hero ball” three shot when the heat were down 3 earlier in the game and it clanked then too, but live by jimmy and die by him too. 
 

I know the MVP goes to the winning team and he likely wouldn’t have even wanted it, but how is Jimmy Butler otherwise not the MVP of this series? I guess giving someone an award for a losing effort doesn’t play well on television (it’s a nit pick for sure, I think it is dumb even when I have no skin in the game) 

finally, the good news is the heat are bringing back pretty much this whole team next year (maybe minus Oladipo, maybe not.  In Riley we trust) and we actually have a draft pick this year… also, now I get my evenings back.  Whoever came up with these 9 pm tip offs needs to have their head examined. 

 

[offdee]

Van Gundy sounds like he’s about to die on the air. 

I wrote a similar comment earlier....painful to listen to that.

He's talking about a kid dieing of cancer while it sounds like he needs to be driven to the emergency room.

 

[Anarchy99]

Updated geeky stat site win probabilities . . .

538 RAPTOR:
BOS - 83%
GS - 17%

538 ELO:
BOS - 68%
GS - 32%

ESPN BPI:
BOS - 86.8%
GS - 13.2%

Basketball Reference:
BOS - 57.2%
GS - 42.8%

The Ringer:
BOS - 61%
GS - 39%

PlayoffStatus.com:
GS - 61%
BOS - 39%

 

[the moops]

I know the MVP goes to the winning team and he likely wouldn’t have even wanted it, but how is Jimmy Butler otherwise not the MVP of this series? I guess giving someone an award for a losing effort doesn’t play well on television (it’s a nit pick for sure, I think it is dumb even when I have no skin in the game) 

Yea, they will almost never give the MVP to someone on the losing team. If Butler didn't have absolute terrible games in 4 and 5 his argument would be much stronger

 

[brun]

Heat fan here. Proud of them. All the injuries, all the pain, it all came down to jimmy deciding to pull up rather than drive on my gator buddy Al Horford. He pulled the same “hero ball” three shot when the heat were down 3 earlier in the game and it clanked then too, but live by jimmy and die by him too. 
 

I know the MVP goes to the winning team and he likely wouldn’t have even wanted it, but how is Jimmy Butler otherwise not the MVP of this series? I guess giving someone an award for a losing effort doesn’t play well on television (it’s a nit pick for sure, I think it is dumb even when I have no skin in the game) 

finally...

Re the 2 points above.

I don't know the stats but I don't think Butler is a particularly good 3 point shooter. That was a lower percentage play. While there's no guarantee, he took a gamble and whiffed.

Tatum had his moments but I'm not sure it was easy naming him MVP for the series when so many other Celtics made significant contributions. It was very much a team win. I think they always go for a winning team player because most players (I'm assuming) wouldn't bother coming out to accept the award while their team is coping with the loss.

 

[Gatorman]

I don't know the stats but I don't think Butler is a particularly good 3 point shooter. That was a lower percentage play. While there's no guarantee, he took a gamble and whiffed.

He is not and neither was D wade, but sometimes they would get caught up in the moment of going for the dagger that the better move of just driving on the player (who is backpeddalling and likely will foul them) seems to elude them at that moment.  He literally missed the same exact shot when the heat were down (I think) 86-83 and the celts then when on a run that the heat needed to come back from (again). Again, as a fan, both of those shots (and the Phantom removal of the Strus 3 pointer which someone still has to explain to me) are the ones I thought about before I fell asleep last night.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Warriors -160

Celts +130

Based on all the analytics, this seems like easy money to bet on the Celts.  Worst case, you hedge the bet when the odds inevitably flip after the Celts go up 1-0 or 2-1.

 

[nysfl2]

Based on all the analytics, this seems like easy money to bet on the Celts.  Worst case, you hedge the bet when the odds inevitably flip after the Celts go up 1-0 or 2-1.

I put some money on the Celtics to win it all early in the playoffs based on those analytics. Trying to decide whether to hedge it now, or wait a game or two. 

It's crazy to me how heavy of a favorite Golden State is right now.

 

[Desert_Power]

Has anyone seen an angle where it looks like Struss was conclusively out of bounds? I haven't seen one with the heel hitting the line.

 

[ShamrockPride]

Saw immediately after the game on SVP coverage last night, Finals experience is an insane difference between GS & Boston.

Finals games played by GS players: 123

Finals games played by Boston players: 0

 

[wikkidpissah]

Heat fan here. Proud of them. All the injuries, all the pain, it all came down to jimmy deciding to pull up rather than drive on my gator buddy Al Horford. He pulled the same “hero ball” three shot when the heat were down 3 earlier in the game and it clanked then too, but live by jimmy and die by him too. 
 

I know the MVP goes to the winning team and he likely wouldn’t have even wanted it, but how is Jimmy Butler otherwise not the MVP of this series? I guess giving someone an award for a losing effort doesn’t play well on television (it’s a nit pick for sure, I think it is dumb even when I have no skin in the game) 

finally, the good news is the heat are bringing back pretty much this whole team next year (maybe minus Oladipo, maybe not.  In Riley we trust) and we actually have a draft pick this year… also, now I get my evenings back.  Whoever came up with these 9 pm tip offs needs to have their head examined. 

should be proud and hopeful. a healthy Herro and who knows?! i pray that Lowry is in shape to do more than his tricks next year - last nite's display was as pathetic as effective. Buckets was the MVP of this series and it wasnt close - i wished him (and a post) for my Celts instead of Horford/Hayward/Kyrie years ago and still thrill to imagine him having grown up Maaaacus and the Jays.

would love to see Boucher or Jalen Smith (in other words, get back what they lost in Precious Achiuwa) go for Mia's MLE this offseason - they got at least one more good run.

 

[jvdesigns2002]

Heat fan here. Proud of them. All the injuries, all the pain, it all came down to jimmy deciding to pull up rather than drive on my gator buddy Al Horford. He pulled the same “hero ball” three shot when the heat were down 3 earlier in the game and it clanked then too, but live by jimmy and die by him too. 
 

I know the MVP goes to the winning team and he likely wouldn’t have even wanted it, but how is Jimmy Butler otherwise not the MVP of this series? I guess giving someone an award for a losing effort doesn’t play well on television (it’s a nit pick for sure, I think it is dumb even when I have no skin in the game) 

finally, the good news is the heat are bringing back pretty much this whole team next year (maybe minus Oladipo, maybe not.  In Riley we trust) and we actually have a draft pick this year… also, now I get my evenings back.  Whoever came up with these 9 pm tip offs needs to have their head examined. 

I would have loved to see both teams playing at full health for the entirety of the series.  I think that both the Celtics and the Heat have bright futures for the coming years. In regards to Butler winning MVP of the series—I can’t get with that.  Not only did his team not win the series—but he had 4 games where he went god mode and was unstoppable but he also had 3 games where he himself admitted he played like trash (albeit that he was most likely hobbled).  Game 3 we went for 8 points on 3-8 from the field, game 4 he went for 6 points (3-14 from the field), game 5 he went for 13 points (4-18 from the field).   He basically was Dr. Jeckyl and Mr. Hyde in the series. He was dominant for slightly more than half of the games and was pretty terrible in slightly less than half of them.  The only way he could win MVP with that dynamic is to win the series imo.  He can’t be on the losing side of the series, and be a non factor in nearly half of the games and win series MVP.  

 

[facook]

Based on all the analytics, this seems like easy money to bet on the Celts.  Worst case, you hedge the bet when the odds inevitably flip after the Celts go up 1-0 or 2-1.

I put some money on the Celtics to win it all early in the playoffs based on those analytics. Trying to decide whether to hedge it now, or wait a game or two. 

It's crazy to me how heavy of a favorite Golden State is right now.

I'm thinking GS wins game one and then I'll put more money on Boston at even greater odds.  Just like last series.

 

[Ghost Rider]

I will be shocked if this goes 7. Feels like Boston can win a game, maybe two, but that's it. I don't give a darn what the analytics say.  The eye test of watching both teams tells me all I need to know.  Heck, I could see there being several games where Boston outplays the Warriors for the majority, but Golden St finds a way to win it. The Celtics obviously struggle at the end of games, and they have gotten away with that in the last two series thanks to the Bucks missing their 2nd best player and the Heat's best player being hobbled, but against a healthy Warriors team, good luck with that. 

 

[jvdesigns2002]

I will be shocked if this goes 7. Feels like Boston can win a game, maybe two, but that's it. I don't give a darn what the analytics say.  The eye test of watching both teams tells me all I need to know.  Heck, I could see there being several games where Boston outplays the Warriors for the majority, but Golden St finds a way to win it. The Celtics obviously struggle at the end of games, and they have gotten away with that in the last two series thanks to the Bucks missing their 2nd best player and the Heat's best player being hobbled, but against a healthy Warriors team, good luck with that. 

 I don’t know if I agree with this at all. I would personally be more surprised to see it go 5 games than I would see it going 7 games.  I’ve been watching the same playoffs as you—and frankly—Golden State has not looked really “dominant” to me.  They played the Nuggets, a Grizzlies team that was missing Morant, Adams and Brooks for some games, and the Mavericks.   As great as Jokic is—his surrounding cast made it so that they were possibly the weakest team in the playoffs in the West.   The Grizzlies played the Warriors tough—and one of the lineup quirks that was decently successful for them was having Jaren Jackson and Steven Adams on the court at the same time (when Adams did get back).  There were times in the Dallas series where Kevin Looney looked like an old school Dwight Howard.  I’m a huge Looney fan—but I don’t see him having that insane kind of success against a healthy Robert Williams.  I think the Celts could very well start both Horford and WIlliams (put Horford on Draymond, and Williams on Looney).  

I also like that Boston has played talent laden opponents in every round of the playoffs and managed to find a way to win.   My “eye test” on Golden State is that they have played average to slightly above average in the playoffs and have had 5-10 minute stretches in some games where they play well enough to create separation and win.  I haven’t seen a team that plays sooo amazingly consistently dominant that I would only expect the Celts to maybe win 1 game. 

I am of the belief that if both teams are playing their best games on both sides of the court—you’re looking at a 7 game series.  I think that if both teams play their “average” for the series—that Golden State wins in 6.   With that said—I would not be in the least bit surprised if Boston ended up winning the series.  If they play exceptionally well and steal a game on the road—they can pull it off. I see this thing going 6-7 games unless the Celtics show signs of being completely gassed out.  

 

[ShamrockPride]

Just found this angle of Strus's cancelled 3 pointer. Best one I've seen so far.

 

[Tau837]

I don't understand why so many people think this is a lock for Golden State. Having watched both teams in the playoffs, the Celtics have had a much tougher path to the Finals while dealing with multiple injuries, and they look like the better team IMO.

The matchups seem to favor the Celtics IMO, at least if both sides are healthy.

As has been noted, the extra off days favors Boston and makes it more likely they will be at or closer to full strength than they have been in the past couple rounds.

IMO the Finals experience angle is irrelevant. Boston is 3-0 in elimination games in these playoffs, with two of those games on the road. If they can do that, there is no issue with Finals jitters.

If I bet on sports, I'd put a healthy wager on Boston to win the title.

 

[Navin Johnson]

He is not and neither was D wade, but sometimes they would get caught up in the moment of going for the dagger that the better move of just driving on the player (who is backpeddalling and likely will foul them) seems to elude them at that moment.  He literally missed the same exact shot when the heat were down (I think) 86-83 and the celts then when on a run that the heat needed to come back from (again). Again, as a fan, both of those shots (and the Phantom removal of the Strus 3 pointer which someone still has to explain to me) are the ones I thought about before I fell asleep last night.

I think the three is the right shot there if it is open, especially with Butler gassed you don't like your chances in OT. If he makes the two you are giving BOS last shot and then OT so they are still losing 65-70% of the time if he makes it. 

 

[Navin Johnson]

I don't understand why so many people think this is a lock for Golden State. Having watched both teams in the playoffs, the Celtics have had a much tougher path to the Finals while dealing with multiple injuries, and they look like the better team IMO.

The matchups seem to favor the Celtics IMO, at least if both sides are healthy.

As has been noted, the extra off days favors Boston and makes it more likely they will be at or closer to full strength than they have been in the past couple rounds.

IMO the Finals experience angle is irrelevant. Boston is 3-0 in elimination games in these playoffs, with two of those games on the road. If they can do that, there is no issue with Finals jitters.

If I bet on sports, I'd put a healthy wager on Boston to win the title.

They also haven't played a fully healthy team, have been giving up a ton of open threes, and have played three iso-heavy teams. GS is a completely different beast from what they have faced so far. 

 

[SoBeDad]

I think the three is the right shot there if it is open, especially with Butler gassed you don't like your chances in OT. If he makes the two you are giving BOS last shot and then OT so they are still losing 65-70% of the time if he makes it. 

If Butler makes it and Miami wins, it's an epic moment in Heat basketball, like the Ray Allen shot to tie game 6 in a dramatic comeback win vs the Spurs in 2013. 

Regarding the Strus 3 that was taken away several game time minutes after it happened:

>>OK, just spoke to NBA. They said every 3-pointer is reviewed to see if it is a 3 or a 2. But the Part B of the equation, to also see if there is an out-of-bounds violation, seemingly is subjective and not automatically part of the process. That might possibly soon be changed.<<

https://twitter.com/IraHeatBeat/status/1531376127834456075?s=20&t=7HFuFlG0DPtmYPTAhhL4lQ

 

[BoltBacker]

GS is a completely different beast from what they have faced so far. 

I agree with this.

GS won't rely on 1-2 players being a threat from the 3pt line. Playing defense becomes much more difficult when you have defend 3-4 guys on the perimeter all game long. GS also moves without the basketball so much better than any of the teams BOS has beaten. BOS has done a great job of defending the top two offensive threats on the floor at any given time but imo GS just throws waves of guys that can break down your defense. Theis can't be trusted to defend on the perimeter with pick&rolls and Robert Williams bites on nearly every 3pt shot fake which will get him in trouble given the veteran shooters on GS. If it plays out like that then BOS will be rolling with a 7 man rotation with a 35yo Horford logging 40+ minutes/game for the entire series. He's been a beast vs Giannis/Adebayo but this will be a different challenge for him. Against those very talented players Horford was collapsing into the paint daring guys to shoot jump shots a little further than they want to.... in this series he's going to be forced to chase, and chase, and chase on defense. BOS will be forced to go small to defend the perimeter shooting and motion offense and that short rotation will lead to GS getting a bigger and bigger offensive rebounding advantage. 

Perhaps just as importantly though I think Wiggins(the way he's playing right now) can guard Tatum straight up. That's a big key because it means you can focus your help defense on Brown when he drives to the basket. I'm expecting we see less of Robert Williams(and may not see Theis at all in this series) and both Horford and Grant Williams are going to need to shoot the lights out from beyond the arc when BOS is on offense. Horford has had his moments doing just that in these playoffs but he's quietly gone 3-15 from beyond the arc the last three games and all these playoff minutes may already be catching up to him.

IMO the only way BOS extends this series to 6 games or more is GS falling into "foul trouble"(interpret that any way you want). It's still the NBA and officiating is the great equalizer.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

I don't understand why so many people think this is a lock for Golden State. Having watched both teams in the playoffs, the Celtics have had a much tougher path to the Finals while dealing with multiple injuries, and they look like the better team IMO.

The matchups seem to favor the Celtics IMO, at least if both sides are healthy.

As has been noted, the extra off days favors Boston and makes it more likely they will be at or closer to full strength than they have been in the past couple rounds.

IMO the Finals experience angle is irrelevant. Boston is 3-0 in elimination games in these playoffs, with two of those games on the road. If they can do that, there is no issue with Finals jitters.

If I bet on sports, I'd put a healthy wager on Boston to win the title.

I wrote just a few posts above yours that I would bet on Boston.  

 

[Navin Johnson]

If Butler makes it and Miami wins, it's an epic moment in Heat basketball, like the Ray Allen shot to tie game 6 in a dramatic comeback win vs the Spurs in 2013. 

Or he could have made it and the Heat still go on to lose70% of the time.  It's an epic moment like KD tying the game againstthe Bucks last season.

 

[Anarchy99]

ESPN discussing that Curry has only shot 29% with an 85 offensive rating when covered by Marcus Smart since Smart came into the league. Celtics only team in the NBA with a winning record against GS since Kerr took over as head coach. 

 

[dickey moe]

ESPN discussing that Curry has only shot 29% with an 85 offensive rating when covered by Marcus Smart since Smart came into the league. Celtics only team in the NBA with a winning record against GS since Kerr took over as head coach. 

Yeah, that will be the matchup of the series.

 

[jvdesigns2002]

They also haven't played a fully healthy team, have been giving up a ton of open threes, and have played three iso-heavy teams. GS is a completely different beast from what they have faced so far. 

You think the Warriors have played better and more healthy competition this playoffs than the Celtics?   The Nuggets without Murray or Porter Jr, the Grizzlies without Morant, Adams and Brooks for parts of the series?   The level of competition faced so far this playoffs is easily an advantage for the Celtics if you want to go that route imo. 

 

[the moops]

ESPN discussing that Curry has only shot 29% with an 85 offensive rating when covered by Marcus Smart since Smart came into the league. Celtics only team in the NBA with a winning record against GS since Kerr took over as head coach. 

Yeah, that will be the matchup of the series.

With Smart hobbled, I bet we see Derrick White on Curry a lot too.

 

[wikkidpissah]

saying this only somewhat as a homer - Celts have already faced down the teams that offered them defensive problems. KD, Anteaternintendo, Bam & Butler to an extent were mismatches for them. Dubs offer no mismatches, merely an expanded floor. da Green was built for that. Curry, Klay, Poole, Wiggy will all have bigger, faster guys on em. dont think we'll have much TimeLord (Udoka panicked when Al got 2 fouls kwik in G6 and left Rob in for whole Q1 - hasnt jumped over an egg since) but Al can loaf all days on the Looneys and Porters and such and we're not exposing Theis to any Adebayos if we give him minutes so guys can blow here

twas consensus around here that Boston needed to beat the Heat in 6 to prevail against GS. theyre that beat up. but while playing Sunday hurt them for the series, that recency might give em a jump on G1

 

[Anarchy99]

I find it interesting that since BOS won Game 7 against the Heat, ESPN has made no mention that their BPI analytics have the C’s as a 86.5% favorite to win the title. I’ve watched multiple discussions about the finals matchup across several different shows, and they haven’t posted a graphic or talked about that at all. If you ever watch ESPN, they roll BPI predictions all the time. I wonder why they have completely ignored their own analytical model. 

 

[identikit]

I find it interesting that since BOS won Game 7 against the Heat, ESPN has made no mention that their BPI analytics have the C’s as a 86.5% favorite to win the title. I’ve watched multiple discussions about the finals matchup across several different shows, and they haven’t posted a graphic or talked about that at all. If you ever watch ESPN, they roll BPI predictions all the time. I wonder why they have completely ignored their own analytical model. 

Searching for ratings, maybe

 

[Jayrod]

With Smart hobbled, I bet we see Derrick White on Curry a lot too.

Smart has a minor ankle sprain and has 4 days under the best treatment possible to get back to full strength. I'm not worried about him being limited at all in this series nor Tatum's shoulder as well.  The only guy still in any serious danger from his current injury is Rob Williams.  That knee is going to swell up from day to day until he can rehab for a month or two.  I'm legit worried about a Draymond hammer job putting him out for the series.

Boston can match up with Golden State better than anyone because they have 4 really good perimeter defenders and 3 bigs that can switch and still be effective on Curry/Klay.  Curry is crafty enough to exploit the bigs from time to time, but give them too many shots at it and he won't be as effective.  Poole is the one guy with too much speed for Horford or TimeLord to guard. I'm certain Udoka is spending a TON of time in this prep week getting them to understand the spacing and actions the Dubs will put them into so as to not lose track of Klay or Curry and give up open looks.  Grant Williams is going to get a lot of time since he has the footspeed to stay with those 3 and the strength to match up with Draymond or Looney. Theis won't be a huge liability out there either and will be available whenever TimeLord is unavailable.

Meanwhile, Boston's offense is going to have Tatum and Brown hunting mismatches (hopefully in the midrange and attacking the rim) and our bigs being effective on the glass and opportunistic in the paint.

 

[Charlie Harper]

Are Boston fans not worried about the lack of 3 point shooting? 

Tatum Brown, and Smart just barely shoot an acceptable 3 point percentage (33-35%) and they're your Top 3 by attempts made. Sure Tatum and Brown have done better in playoffs, but the way the defense will treat the team is the same:

Wiggins on Tatum to make life difficult and then guard everyone else leaning towards the paint. I'd gladly let Brown, Smart, and Horford chuck 3's. 

The Warriors have done a great job avoiding offenses hunting Curry and Poole with hard hedges and mixing up zone looks. 

I just don't see where the Celtics can find consistent offense if Tatum is being picked up by Wiggins.

 

[Anarchy99]

I find it interesting that since BOS won Game 7 against the Heat, ESPN has made no mention that their BPI analytics have the C’s as a 86.5% favorite to win the title. I’ve watched multiple discussions about the finals matchup across several different shows, and they haven’t posted a graphic or talked about that at all. If you ever watch ESPN, they roll BPI predictions all the time. I wonder why they have completely ignored their own analytical model. 

JJ Redick finally mentioned the BPI numbers on First Take (Boston 86% to win). He said people should really give that way more attention. Most NBA analysts are picking the Warriors. Celtics homer Kendrick Perkins is the only one taking Boston that I have seen on ESPN so far (well, Greenberg is too, but he isn't exactly an expert).

CBS Sports mentioned that in the last three seasons that GS went to the finals (18 / 19 / 22), in their 6 games against Boston, the Warriors only averaged 85 points per 100 possessions in half court possessions. Boston has had the same numbers against everyone in their playoff run this year. It doesn't matter who the opposition has been, the style of play, or the players involved. Boston has had a huge advantage if they can turn games into half court battles, especially if they minimize turnovers and transition opportunities.

 

[Jayrod]

Are Boston fans not worried about the lack of 3 point shooting? 

Tatum Brown, and Smart just barely shoot an acceptable 3 point percentage (33-35%) and they're your Top 3 by attempts made. Sure Tatum and Brown have done better in playoffs, but the way the defense will treat the team is the same:

Wiggins on Tatum to make life difficult and then guard everyone else leaning towards the paint. I'd gladly let Brown, Smart, and Horford chuck 3's. 

The Warriors have done a great job avoiding offenses hunting Curry and Poole with hard hedges and mixing up zone looks. 

I just don't see where the Celtics can find consistent offense if Tatum is being picked up by Wiggins.

I'm guessing you haven't watched much of the Celtics in the postseason.

Tatum has become a playmaker, not just a scorer and outside of a couple of stinker games has been solid from 3.  Grant Williams, Horford, and Pritchard are all excellent 3-pt shooters and Brown and Smart are streaky.  They get good to great looks from 3 consistently as a team.  Sometimes they go through cold spells and let teams back into games, but when they get on (and they have had several games of "on" since January) they are unbeatable.  They had absolutely dominate games this postseason against Milwaukee and Miami where they destroyed them with outside shooting and it was never a game.

Even when the shooting is off, they also have 4 perimeter players (Tatum, Brown, Smart & White) who can get into and do damage in the paint when they make it a priority.  They will be bigger and more athletic across the board against Golden State.  Curry is a minor liability on defense, Poole is a big liability and Klay isn't what he once was.  Wiggins, Green and Looney will have to do all of the heavy lifting and it will be a tall order for an entire series.

If a couple of Celtics get hot from the outside, there isn't much you can do.  I'll be shocked if there isn't a major Celtics ###-kicking game in the first 4 games where Golden State just gets blown out.  It could be any one of the 1st 4 games, but it will likely happen at least once.

 

[Jayrod]

CBS Sports mentioned that in the last three seasons that GS went to the finals (18 / 19 / 22), in their 6 games against Boston, the Warriors only averaged 85 points per 100 possessions in half court possessions. Boston has had the same numbers against everyone in their playoff run this year. It doesn't matter who the opposition has been, the style of play, or the players involved. Boston has had a huge advantage if they can turn games into half court battles, especially if they minimize turnovers and transition opportunities.

The bolded is the achilles heel to what has been far and away the best team in 2022.  If they can keep Golden State from going on turnover fueled runs, there is no reason they can't win this series.

Immaturity/lack of experience and lack of leadership is the biggest danger to Boston, not anything Golden State does.  Man for man, Boston is a better team hence all of the analytics picking them.  On paper, they should absolutely win the championship.

 

[Anarchy99]

Are Boston fans not worried about the lack of 3 point shooting? 

Tatum Brown, and Smart just barely shoot an acceptable 3 point percentage (33-35%) and they're your Top 3 by attempts made. Sure Tatum and Brown have done better in playoffs, but the way the defense will treat the team is the same:

Wiggins on Tatum to make life difficult and then guard everyone else leaning towards the paint. I'd gladly let Brown, Smart, and Horford chuck 3's. 

The Warriors have done a great job avoiding offenses hunting Curry and Poole with hard hedges and mixing up zone looks. 

I just don't see where the Celtics can find consistent offense if Tatum is being picked up by Wiggins.

In the post season . . .

Boston 36.2% offensive 3 pt% / 31.7% defensive 3 pt% = +4.5% net
Golden State 37.9% offensive 3 pt% / 36.5% defensive 3 pt% = +1.4 net

Regular season . . .

Boston 35.6% offensive 3 pt% / 33.9% defensive 3 pt% = +1.7% net
Golden State 36.4% offensive 3 pt% / 33.9% defensive 3 pt% = +2.4% net

As mentioned earlier, Boston just finds a way. What they haven't gotten offensively, they have more than made up for defensively. With a +4.5% advantage in the playoffs on three pointers and an average of 68 combined three-point attempts per game, that works out to a 9.18 point advantage per game for Boston so far in the playoffs (if my math is right: .045 * 68 combined attempts * 3 points). Golden State has had a 3.79 point advantage per game in three pointers in the post season (.017 * 74.4 combined attempts * 3 points).

Bottom line, Boston gained 5.39 points per game compared to the Warriors on three-point shooting in the playoffs. That's one of the reasons why people are struggling to see that the analytics show an advantage for the Celtics. Even with the Warriors shooting better and with more perceived three-point shooters, so far in the playoffs the Celtics have gained a big advantage in net three-point shooting success.

Clearly, prior results don't always predict future results, and maybe the Warriors will shoot better from distance than Boston and also defend the Celtics along the perimeter better than the Nets / Bucks / Heat did. That certainly is possible. On paper, it certainly feels like the Warriors should shoot threes better than the Heat (who had games where they were horrible from behind the three-point line). Who knows what will actually happen.
 

 

[Toby2ElectricBugaloo]

I find it interesting that since BOS won Game 7 against the Heat, ESPN has made no mention that their BPI analytics have the C’s as a 86.5% favorite to win the title. I’ve watched multiple discussions about the finals matchup across several different shows, and they haven’t posted a graphic or talked about that at all. If you ever watch ESPN, they roll BPI predictions all the time. I wonder why they have completely ignored their own analytical model. 

I don't recall seeing much talk about an NBA BPI, but even if there has been and there isn't now, I would imagine there's a pretty simple explanation: they don't want to discredit their own metric. People might think Celtics +140 to win the Series is ridiculous, you could even maybe make a plausible argument that the Cs should be favored. But there's really no way to look at a projection that says they're as safe a bet to win the title as Jayson Tatum is to make a given free throw and not think it's really silly.

 

[Charlie Harper]

I'm guessing you haven't watched much of the Celtics in the postseason.

Tatum has become a playmaker, not just a scorer and outside of a couple of stinker games has been solid from 3.  Grant Williams, Horford, and Pritchard are all excellent 3-pt shooters and Brown and Smart are streaky.  They get good to great looks from 3 consistently as a team.  Sometimes they go through cold spells and let teams back into games, but when they get on (and they have had several games of "on" since January) they are unbeatable.  They had absolutely dominate games this postseason against Milwaukee and Miami where they destroyed them with outside shooting and it was never a game.

Even when the shooting is off, they also have 4 perimeter players (Tatum, Brown, Smart & White) who can get into and do damage in the paint when they make it a priority.  They will be bigger and more athletic across the board against Golden State.  Curry is a minor liability on defense, Poole is a big liability and Klay isn't what he once was.  Wiggins, Green and Looney will have to do all of the heavy lifting and it will be a tall order for an entire series.

If a couple of Celtics get hot from the outside, there isn't much you can do.  I'll be shocked if there isn't a major Celtics ###-kicking game in the first 4 games where Golden State just gets blown out.  It could be any one of the 1st 4 games, but it will likely happen at least once.

Great points. I definitely expect this to be a hard series. I will be more surprised if this ends in 5, fully expecting a 6-7 games series. 

I've certainly watched the Celtics very closely this playoffs since they were one of the teams I was most scared of along with a healthy Bucks team. I get the Celtics get good looks at 3 pointers but  that's what defenses are willing to give up to them because Tatum, Brown, and Smart are great at penetrating. The Celtics as a team shot 35% from 3 point during the season. Are they better in the playoffs? Sure, but that only means a regression to the mean is more likely.

If this becomes a series based on 3 point shooting, I'm taking the Warriors.

 

[Charlie Harper]

In the post season . . .

Boston 36.2% offensive 3 pt% / 31.7% defensive 3 pt% = +4.5% net
Golden State 37.9% offensive 3 pt% / 36.5% defensive 3 pt% = +1.4 net

Regular season . . .

Boston 35.6% offensive 3 pt% / 33.9% defensive 3 pt% = +1.7% net
Golden State 36.4% offensive 3 pt% / 33.9% defensive 3 pt% = +2.4% net

As mentioned earlier, Boston just finds a way. What they haven't gotten offensively, they have more than made up for defensively. With a +4.5% advantage in the playoffs on three pointers and an average of 68 combined three-point attempts per game, that works out to a 9.18 point advantage per game for Boston so far in the playoffs (if my math is right: .045 * 68 combined attempts * 3 points). Golden State has had a 3.79 point advantage per game in three pointers in the post season (.017 * 74.4 combined attempts * 3 points).

Bottom line, Boston gained 5.39 points per game compared to the Warriors on three-point shooting in the playoffs. That's one of the reasons why people are struggling to see that the analytics show an advantage for the Celtics. Even with the Warriors shooting better and with more perceived three-point shooters, so far in the playoffs the Celtics have gained a big advantage in net three-point shooting success.

Clearly, prior results don't always predict future results, and maybe the Warriors will shoot better from distance than Boston and also defend the Celtics along the perimeter better than the Nets / Bucks / Heat did. That certainly is possible. On paper, it certainly feels like the Warriors should shoot threes better than the Heat (who had games where they were horrible from behind the three-point line). Who knows what will actually happen.
 

Looking at the opponents they faced that playoff 3 point shooting differential is impressive:

Brooklyn 36.1 (10th)

Milwaukee 36.6 (5th)

Miami 37.9 (1st)

Granted Bucks and Heat were missing their top 3 point shooters, but still.

Warriors have played:

Denver 35.3 (16th)

Memphis 35.3 (17th)

Dallas 35.0 (19th)

The Celtics shot 35.6 (14th) from 3 in the regular season. 

So the 3 point contest is closer than I thought.

Going to be a great series! Thanks for adding to my anxiety again. 

 

[Jayrod]

I think a sneaky important factor that hasn't been mentioned yet is Gary Payton making it back for the Finals.  His defense off the bench is a weapon Golden State could really use and could put them over the hump in a tight game against a turnover prone Boston team.

If he's ready, I'd set him lose on Jaylen Brown and tell him to play super aggressive on the ball because that guy has hands like feet when defenders go for the ball.  A couple of turnovers to fast breaks could break a tight game open for the Warriors.

 

[Anarchy99]

Looking at the opponents they faced that playoff 3 point shooting differential is impressive:

Brooklyn 36.1 (10th)

Milwaukee 36.6 (5th)

Miami 37.9 (1st)

Granted Bucks and Heat were missing their top 3 point shooters, but still.

Warriors have played:

Denver 35.3 (16th)

Memphis 35.3 (17th)

Dallas 35.0 (19th)

The Celtics shot 35.6 (14th) from 3 in the regular season. 

So the 3 point contest is closer than I thought.

Going to be a great series! Thanks for adding to my anxiety again. 

Again, games are won and lost on the court not based on numbers and trends. But as far as what we might expect from the GS offense . . .

Boston vs. their playoff opponents:

- The Nets with KD and Kyrie averaged 122 ppg in the regular season. In the Boston series, they averaged 109 (-13 ppg).
- The Bucks averaged 111.5 ppg in the regular season. In the Boston series, they averaged 97.7 (-17.8 ppg).
- The Heat averaged 110 ppg in the regular season. In the Boston series, they averaged 99.7 (-10.3 ppg).

Maybe the Warriors are healthier. Maybe the Boston defense will be less effective. Maybe Golden State's offense will be impervious to the Celtics defense. But consider that in the regular season, the Warriors averaged 111.0 ppg. That could drop to 100 ppg against Boston in the Finals (given what the C's have done to their opponents so far). Golden State went 2-12 this season when they scored 99 or fewer points this year.
 

 

[Toby2ElectricBugaloo]

Again, games are won and lost on the court not based on numbers and trends. But as far as what we might expect from the GS offense . . .

Boston vs. their playoff opponents:

- The Nets with KD and Kyrie averaged 122 ppg in the regular season. In the Boston series, they averaged 109 (-13 ppg).
- The Bucks averaged 111.5 ppg in the regular season. In the Boston series, they averaged 97.7 (-17.8 ppg).
- The Heat averaged 110 ppg in the regular season. In the Boston series, they averaged 99.7 (-10.3 ppg).

Maybe the Warriors are healthier. Maybe the Boston defense will be less effective. Maybe Golden State's offense will be impervious to the Celtics defense. But consider that in the regular season, the Warriors averaged 111.0 ppg. That could drop to 100 ppg against Boston in the Finals (given what the C's have done to their opponents so far). Golden State went 2-12 this season when they scored 99 or fewer points this year.
 

If I were a betting man, and I am, I would be curious to see this analysis done with tempo-adjusted figures.

 

[Anarchy99]

If I were a betting man, and I am, I would be curious to see this analysis done with tempo-adjusted figures.

I can't provide actual numbers, but anything that I have seen so far has shown that since January, Boston has imposed their will on teams and dragged opponents into physical, half court games. When they limit turnovers and transition baskets, they are very difficult to beat. When they also hit their three-point shots, they are next to impossible to beat. The second have of the season, their scoring margin was something crazy . . . like +13 or 14 points.

They have been so much better than other teams in half court games (their defensive rating against most teams has been in the low 80s on half court possessions) that unless they go ice cold shooting or turn the ball over a ton, they have won at about 7 out of 8 games with their current starting lineup (the Jays, Horford, Timelord, and Smart). The past two series, they haven't always been able to roll out that lineup (Williams, Smart, and Horford have missed games) and several guys have been banged up. Who knows how healthy they can get in time for the finals, but there are two days off between every game except Games 3 and 4. maybe that will help Boston.

 

[Toby2ElectricBugaloo]

I can't provide actual numbers, but anything that I have seen so far has shown that since January, Boston has imposed their will on teams and dragged opponents into physical, half court games. When they limit turnovers and transition baskets, they are very difficult to beat. When they also hit their three-point shots, they are next to impossible to beat. The second have of the season, their scoring margin was something crazy . . . like +13 or 14 points.

They have been so much better than other teams in half court games (their defensive rating against most teams has been in the low 80s on half court possessions) that unless they go ice cold shooting or turn the ball over a ton, they have won at about 7 out of 8 games with their current starting lineup (the Jays, Horford, Timelord, and Smart). The past two series, they haven't always been able to roll out that lineup (Williams, Smart, and Horford have missed games) and several guys have been banged up. Who knows how healthy they can get in time for the finals, but there are two days off between every game except Games 3 and 4. maybe that will help Boston.

OK, but "Boston wins by slowing down the tempo" is an entirely different argument from "Boston wins by making teams much worse at offense."  I'm trying to figure out which one it is, so I can figure out Golden State's chances of overcoming it.

If the Celtics got those teams to lose 15 ppg largely by slowing the tempo, I'd want to know how Golden State's offense performs in the half court as compared to the other teams they've played before reaching any conclusions. If the Celtics got that drop by playing crazy good defense over the last two months at the same tempo that produced those regular season averages, that's far more persuasive.

 

[Major]

I wrote just a few posts above yours that I would bet on Boston.  

Yeah, I don't think many people here think GS is a lock, a favorite maybe but definitely not a lock. 

 

[Toby2ElectricBugaloo]

Also FWIW, the Warriors are 12-4 since Curry returned at the start of the playoffs, with the only loss of real significance being a five point loss to Memphis on the road when Ja went for 47/8/8 in Game 2. The other three losses also came on the road, with the Warriors up 3-0 for two of them and 3-1 for the other one. They haven't lost at home.  The two times someone got close (Nuggets Game 5 and Grizz Game 4), the Warriors responded by going nuclear in the fourth quarter. And by a slim margin the Warriors have home court for the Finals.

I think it's clear we got the two best teams here, at least if we assume Khris Middleton's injury meant the Bucks would never have gotten to full strength again and that whatever made the Suns melt down in such epic fashion was some sort of ongoing problem. But so far -160/+140 for the series looks about right to me.

 

[Anarchy99]

OK, but "Boston wins by slowing down the tempo" is an entirely different argument from "Boston wins by making teams much worse at offense."  I'm trying to figure out which one it is, so I can figure out Golden State's chances of overcoming it.

If the Celtics got those teams to lose 15 ppg largely by slowing the tempo, I'd want to know how Golden State's offense performs in the half court as compared to the other teams they've played before reaching any conclusions. If the Celtics got that drop by playing crazy good defense over the last two months at the same tempo that produced those regular season averages, that's far more persuasive.

Offensive / defensive efficiency cares not about pace of play. As already indicated, Boston has gotten opponents down to the 80-85 points per 100 possessions range in half court situations. Boston has been in the 100 points per 100 possessions range in the same situations.  That's why they were winning by 14 ppg over the second half of the season. Most teams averaged in the 105+ points per possession range in those situations in the regular season. So yeah, the Celtics have been able to force teams to play more possessions at a slower tempo while also playing elite defense on top of it. (Teams score at a higher rate in transition.)

So to project GS, they will likely have fewer transition opportunities and more half court possessions. That will cause them to score fewer points unless they up their shot making (or they cause more live ball turnovers) to make up for it.

 

[Toby2ElectricBugaloo]

A point in my book in favor of Boston-  they've been doing a good job of getting to the line while not allowing their opponents to do the same. 24.3 attempts per game vs 21.8 for their opponents in the playoffs. For Golden State these numbers are flipped despite their dominant playoff record: 21.7 for them, 24.3 for their opponents.

So Golden State appears to be ripe for the picking on this front.

 

[Leeroy Jenkins]

If Curry wins another title and Finals MVP, does he move ahead of Lebron all-time?

 

[Toby2ElectricBugaloo]

Offensive / defensive efficiency cares not about pace of play. As already indicated, Boston has gotten opponents down to the 80-85 points per 100 possessions range in half court situations. Boston has been in the 100 points per 100 possessions range in the same situations.  That's why they were winning by 14 ppg over the second half of the season. Most teams averaged in the 105+ points per possession range in those situations in the regular season. So yeah, the Celtics have been able to force teams to play more possessions at a slower tempo while also playing elite defense on top of it. (Teams score at a higher rate in transition.)

So to project GS, they will likely have fewer transition opportunities and more half court possessions. That will cause them to score fewer points unless they up their shot making (or they cause more live ball turnovers) to make up for it.

I understand all this. I'm just trying to figure out the extent to which they've accomplished each of the two things in the bolded as reflected in their PPG allowed. 50/50?  Mostly one or the other?