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2021 Buffalo Bills - Same as it ever was*** (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter GroveDiesel
- Start date
Kool-Aid Larry
Footballguy
thought that dude was a jets fan
personally, I think overpaying first round picks for receivers is how you end up with a team like the jets --- not that they made that particular mistake.
balt
pitt
cincy
indy
pats
den
gb
sea
dal
car
det
ari
which of those teams have a highly drafted stud 1st round wr?
personally, I think overpaying first round picks for receivers is how you end up with a team like the jets --- not that they made that particular mistake.
balt
pitt
cincy
indy
pats
den
gb
sea
dal
car
det
ari
which of those teams have a highly drafted stud 1st round wr?
Touchdown Syndrome
Footballguy
Kool-Aid Larry
Footballguy
nothing
I believe it's 6 first rounders, although 3 of those at the bottom of the round.
anyway, I'm not a fan of spending 2 firsts to take a wr with the 4th pick
OC Zed
Footballguy
I'm not sure where this came from. Marrone went out of his way to shield Manuel from media criticism, but that doesn't necessarily make him a huge fan of Manuel... He was likely trying to do what was best for the team. I think Marrone benching Manuel after Week 4 and not letting him play again... even after the season was lost is testament enough that Marrone didn't really believe Manuel was the answer.
ScottNorwood
Footballcutie
A lot of people in this thread didn't like it either. But it happened, and we can't change it. Better to trade 2 first rounds for a good player then spend the 2 first rounders on busts - which could've easily happened.
Zed, it was pretty widely reported that Marrone was livid when they signed Orton. Also, pretty well known that Marrone was heavily involved in the decision to draft EJ.
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
flysack
Footballguy
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flysack
Footballguy
Hindsight is a cliche for good vision, and I still don't have a problem with them trading for Sammy. They went for the sure thing and Sammy has lived up to the hype. At that point they had to believe in Manuel and he did make progress his rookie year (when healthy) and had respectful rookie stats. Who could of guessed he'd actually regress in his sophomore training camp? The Bills did the right thing with a playoff defense, playoff RBs, and quality #2 and #3 and #4 WRs. They needed a stud WR and o-line help and it was playoffs time. The WR worked, but Manuel fell apart and their OG picks sucked (but they still got Henderson).
Also, Aaron is right. We're no longer beating a dead horse here. We're feasting on its uncooked flesh. Time to puke and move on.
Also, Aaron is right. We're no longer beating a dead horse here. We're feasting on its uncooked flesh. Time to puke and move on.
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IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
Reggie Wayne was also a first rounder. His stud days are long gone, but technically that makes seven.
Personally, I don't think there is such a thing as "overpaying" for top-shelf talent (not that Watkins qualifies -- way too early to make that kind of statement yet). If you have the opportunity to take a Jerry Rice or Randy Moss or AJ Green or Larry Fitzgerald, you take him. Obviously WR isn't as important as QB, but it's still an important position.
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Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Most of them?
Cinncy - AJ Green
Indy - Wayne (and Harrison in the past)
GB - Nelson (high second)
Ari - Fitz and Floyd
Den - Thomas
Dallas - Dez
Car - Benjamin
Det - Calvin
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ScottNorwood
Footballcutie
Leaving Buffalo is already a disaster for Marrone if he's interviewing for OC positions, right? I guess you can never really call getting $4 million for doing nothing a disaster, but still....
flysack
Footballguy
I love how his agent spearheaded a positive spin media blitz as soon as he opted out...which baffled everyone else. Ultimately the truth came out and he's been a near pariah ever since, especially after he bombed the Jets interview.
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OC Zed
Footballguy
The reason for Marrone's temper tantrum with Whaley and Brandon during training camp was disputed and there were multiple sources that denied it was over the Orton signing.
so, you're saying he was against Manuel at the time of the 2014 draft?
if so, why wouldn't he have been happy they added Orton at that time? why would he have stuck with EJ as long as he did when the season started?
if they sucked enough to get a QB in the 2015 draft, chances are he wouldn't have been around to coach that player anyway. He was probably pissed that trade put a ton of pressure on him to win, and also because he lost the power struggle. I really doubt it had much to do with the QB position in the way that report mentions.
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OC Zed
Footballguy
I really don't know whether he was in support of the Manuel pick in 2014. Maybe he was. Maybe he wasn't.
I don't think Marrone gave Manuel a long leash in 2014. He was yanked after 4 games when the team was still 2-2 and he had a couple decent games up to that point (yes, 2 of those other games were bad too).
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
Orton played 'ok' but he was not the answer so any chemistry he developed with the offense/receivers was lost.
The question is what is the long-term positive outcome from signing Kyle Orton for the Bills?
Rex is a good signing but for the Bills to take a huge step forward they need to get a long-term solution at QB.
The question is what is the long-term positive outcome from signing Kyle Orton for the Bills?
Rex is a good signing but for the Bills to take a huge step forward they need to get a long-term solution at QB.
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
He just took a job as the "Assistant Head Coach/Offensive Line Coach" with the Jaguars.
The Assistant Head Coach thing seems like merely a face saving title. Dude couldn't even get a position as an OC.
And did the Jags not witness the Buffalo offensive line decline over the last 2 years? Good luck with that Jacksonville!
It wouldn't surprise me at all if he's back to college in 2 years. His time in the NFL is rapidly coming to a close.
Steve Tasker
Footballguy
Did I nail this #### or what? I didn't think he'd actually have a position to coach though, so I was wrong on that.
Doug Marrone gone after 2014 season, spending 2015 as Jaguars OL coach
Chan Gailey gone after 2012 season, took 2013 off
**** Jauron gone after 2009 season, spent 2010 as Eagles DBs coach
3 straight coaches couldn't get a coordinator job after leaving the Bills HC job.
Chan Gailey gone after 2012 season, took 2013 off
**** Jauron gone after 2009 season, spent 2010 as Eagles DBs coach
3 straight coaches couldn't get a coordinator job after leaving the Bills HC job.
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
Well, maybe they're moving in the right direction then, because Rex would absolutely have a job as a DC the next year if he wanted it. So there's that.
flysack
Footballguy
He just took a job as the "Assistant Head Coach/Offensive Line Coach" with the Jaguars.
The Assistant Head Coach thing seems like merely a face saving title. Dude couldn't even get a position as an OC.
And did the Jags not witness the Buffalo offensive line decline over the last 2 years? Good luck with that Jacksonville!
It wouldn't surprise me at all if he's back to college in 2 years. His time in the NFL is rapidly coming to a close.
From a head coach of a talented, up-and-coming team to the offensive line coach of the worst team in the league, coaching the least talented o-line in the league.
The schadenfreude could only be better if the Pegulas somehow found a legal loophole to avoid paying him his $4 million.
The Jaguars don't have an OC yet, and Nate Hackett interviewed for that job.
Seems weird to give Marrone the OL job with Asst Head Coach title if he's not going to be the OC. They going to bring in somebody as an OC to call plays still? If so, doesn't the Asst HC have more power than the OC?
not sure how that hierarchy is going to work when all sorted out.
Seems weird to give Marrone the OL job with Asst Head Coach title if he's not going to be the OC. They going to bring in somebody as an OC to call plays still? If so, doesn't the Asst HC have more power than the OC?
not sure how that hierarchy is going to work when all sorted out.
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
OL coach.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Facesaving. He'll have no assistant head coach responsibilities. Talk about overestimating your worth.
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
You know that commercial where the four young professionals are in an airport and that intern is giving them their specialty coffees while walking the wrong way on the walkway? I think "Assistant Head Coach" is the intern in this particular case.
ScottNorwood
Footballcutie
Pretty funny that that news broke right after my post. I'm surprised. Even though us in this thread don't think highly of him, he did take a 6-10 team to 9-7 and very close to the playoffs in just 2 years. I'd think he'd get another shot at HC based on that alone. NFL front offices aren't exactly known for nuanced evaluation of coaching candidates.
On The Rocks
Footballguy
Jags: We'll offer you the OL job for $500K.
Marrone: I need the Assist Head Coach Title to save face due to my blockhead move walking away from the Bills.
Jags: Ok - but we will only offer you $400K for a job with that title.
Marrone: ugh. Sign me up.
Jags:
I'm trying to estimate what the impact of the coach and QB position are with regard to this Bills team.
If you had to estimate the expected number of wins in each situation below, what would you predict?
2015 Bills with current QB situation (EJ Manuel) and Doug Marrone/Jim Schwartz, etc: how many wins?
2015 Bills with current QB situation (EJ Manuel) and Rex Ryan/Greg Roman: how many wins?
2015 Bills with a free agent QB (Mark Sanchez/Brian Hoyer) and Rex Ryan/Greg Roman: how many wins?
assuming everything else remains the same (i.e., not discussing re-signing Jerry Hughes or other moves the team could make).
If you had to estimate the expected number of wins in each situation below, what would you predict?
2015 Bills with current QB situation (EJ Manuel) and Doug Marrone/Jim Schwartz, etc: how many wins?
2015 Bills with current QB situation (EJ Manuel) and Rex Ryan/Greg Roman: how many wins?
2015 Bills with a free agent QB (Mark Sanchez/Brian Hoyer) and Rex Ryan/Greg Roman: how many wins?
assuming everything else remains the same (i.e., not discussing re-signing Jerry Hughes or other moves the team could make).
On The Rocks
Footballguy
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
Seems like a pointless exercise. Sorry, but draft and FA do matter. A lot. Being without Hughes, Searcy, Easley, Hogan and another RB makes all the difference in the world. You have to assume some/most of those guys are coming back or at least being replaced. Then with a few cuts and other replacements (most likely on the O-line), this team will look substantially different than it does if we exclude all their current FAs.
I disagree.
if Vegas was offering an over/under on # of wins over the past month, they would shift the numbers accordingly.
So, at one point, it was most likely the Bills would go into next year with Orton/Manuel and Marrone/Schwartz in place. O/U of 8.5 wins maybe?
Then Orton retired and Marrone opted out. Rex was hired and Schwartz left, followed by Roman hiring: O/U of 9.0 wins maybe?
If they go out and sign the #1 QB available in free agency, does it go up to 9.5 wins?
My point is that these moves probably won't move the needle that much. Hence, why I believe many people are overstating the importance of the coaching changes or QB situation.
EJ or a game manager comparable to Orton is good enough to get them to 8 or 9 wins. A good QB takes them to a new level. Not sure if Sanchez or Hoyer are that guy though.
Also, nothing is pointless when you can bet on just about anything. :twocents:
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OC Zed
Footballguy
I think they hover between 7 and 9 wins in any of those scenarios. The biggest variable for any team is the quarterback... and there aren't any game changing options available for the Bills this coming year.
Borden
Footballguy
I think Hoyer is the better of the 2 and gave him an extra win.
I don't think EJ will cost the team at least one or two games. Sanchez (with Rex Ryan) could hold the team together but that's it. Hoyer is good enough to "win" an extra game.
It will be very difficult for Rex to take this defense any higher than the #2 DVOA spot. And this team lost it's starting QB and is suddenly very thin at RB. Add in the questionable OL play and I just don't think this team, as it stands, is roughly a 6 win team.
flysack
Footballguy
6-10
7-9
9-7
I don't see Sanchez or Hoyer as much of an upgrade from Manuel. Because the FA options are so cruddy and there's no first round pick, I think the changes in the running game are more crucial in a Greg Roman offense. Do they nab a power running back in FA or the draft? Do they address the OG problem? This is more crucial to a winning record imo.
ETA: imagine this -
Greg Roman installs his offense. The Bills sign Mike Iupati and draft another good starting OG in the second round. Then they sign Mark Ingram. Roman doesn't ask Manuel to win games - that's what Ingram and the line are for, and Manuel isn't known for turning the ball over. He could "work" as a lesser Alex Smith for a year or two if he never improves. With their defense and Roman's power running game, they could go 10-6. Could...
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maybe I wasn't clear, but under all 3 scenarios, I'm assuming the team will make similar moves to upgrade the offensive line, RB position, etc. I just don't think those scenarios will differ a whole lot due to coach/QB changes, and they are too unknown to base anything off right now.
I'm not assuming the Bills won't make any moves in free agency and the draft.
6 wins with EJ Manuel and this defense feels low to me given the upcoming schedule. If Vegas set the line that low, I'd likely hammer the over.
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Borden
Footballguy
A team losing it's starting QB and the HC walking out on the team isn't going to raise the O/U of a team. Even if the coaching change was viewed as a positive that, with a QB loss, might move it up to 9.0 but with no viable option behind Orton there's not way that number doesn't drop. People may have different opinions of EJ but a the end of the day he was a second year QB who got benched because of poor play and a better QB named Kyle Orton was on the bench. My guess is that it would've dropped the O/U to 7.0 or 7.5
I think a lot of people would consider Rex and Roman a significant upgrade over Marrone and Hackett. At the end of the season we just watched, I'm also not very sure that Orton is considered a significant upgrade over Manuel.
Sample size is very small for Manuel right now, and I'd like to see what he does under a new coaching staff. Plus, young WRs usually take time to develop and Woods/Watkins should show improvement next year.
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Borden
Footballguy
I guess the O/U threw me off. At face value the Bills lost a 9-7 HC and a DC that had his team playing in the top 5. They replaced them with a 4-12 HC (who will be taking over the defense) and add a OC whose offense finished 20th in total offense. The Bills finished 26th and I think it's fair to say that starter for starter the 49ers have a considerably better offense. Then you subract the Bills starting QB and it's tough to say there's much improvement there.
Do I personally think the coaching situation improved? Yes but not in a huge way.
Do I personally think the coaching situation improved? Yes but not in a huge way.
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
I agree, Aaron. I still think Manuel is a slight downgrade from Orton, but I could be wrong, and it's not at all out of the question that he could be an upgrade after having a year to mature. Also, I sincerely think that Ryan personally delivers one more win at least compared to Marrone, on average.
IMO, this team underachieved a little in getting only 9 wins. People who are calling a 6-7 win O/U are way off base in my view. Not that it can't happen, just that that dramatically undervalues the quality of our roster.
8-8 Assuming the the power struggles continue and Marrone continues to skuttle the ship
11-5 EJ becomes more than servicable.
9-7 Would undermine EJ' growth.
#1 - 8-8 or worse. Schwartz, the Def & ST might be able to squeak out an extra win or two though. Marrone does nothing useful.
#2 - 10-6 or worse. Schwartz, the Def & ST might be able to squeak out an extra win or two though. New system for QB so I'd give EJ slack but would want to see definite progress as the year goes on.
#3 - Sanchez is Orton+ so 9-7 or better. Hoyer is BadOrton+ so 7-9 or worse.
Again, please no Hoyer. He was just terrible. There are plenty of other better, younger options for a QB competition.
Bills_Fan11
Footballguy
I'd say 6-10, 7-9, 8-8.
Offense is more consistent year to year than both defense and Special Teams. That means it's hard to boost a win total from previous year when you were bad on offense and elite in the other two.
With Rex I feel better about the defense staying pat instead of regressing a bit.
Specials went from terrible to great under same staff last yr - I'm not gonna assume they'll be great again.
Offense is going to be a problem. If they're better I think it'll be marginal. If they can be average that'll be huge but I don't see why they would be.
Offense is more consistent year to year than both defense and Special Teams. That means it's hard to boost a win total from previous year when you were bad on offense and elite in the other two.
With Rex I feel better about the defense staying pat instead of regressing a bit.
Specials went from terrible to great under same staff last yr - I'm not gonna assume they'll be great again.
Offense is going to be a problem. If they're better I think it'll be marginal. If they can be average that'll be huge but I don't see why they would be.
I'm assuming the people who have fewer wins in scenario 3 than 2 are confused- I can't imagine anyone would expect fewer wins with Sanchez et al than with only EJ.
I'd say 7-9, 7-9, 8-8. I'd also put them at 8-8 under a 4th scenario, the previous coaching staff with a free agent QB signing.
I agree that these moves probably don't move the needle much, only because I don't think there is a big difference between them all.
I'd say 7-9, 7-9, 8-8. I'd also put them at 8-8 under a 4th scenario, the previous coaching staff with a free agent QB signing.
I agree that these moves probably don't move the needle much, only because I don't think there is a big difference between them all.
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
This is a really good interview with David Lee: http://www.buffalobills.com/video/videos/Bills-Focus-QB-Coach-David-Lee-1-on-1/19444ca9-47c6-466c-866c-cdaaf38a00ee
My takeaways:
1) Lee seems to know what he's doing. Comes across as credible to me.
2) We need to remember that this guy helped make Fitzpatrick a viable NFL QB.
3) I did not realize that over the last 5 games last year, Geno Smith was the 7th rated passer in the league. Seems like more credibility for Lee as a QB coach there.
4) I'm not sure exactly how much remembering a pamphlet tells you, but it does seem to indicate that Manuel does a good job preparing and retains information well. Those are two very important QB traits IMO.
5) Lee touches on my biggest criticism of Marrone's treatment of Manuel when he says that they just want EJ to "go out there and cut it loose." EJ clearly had problems making decisions and was overly conservative and I truly believe that it at least partially stems from Marrone creating an atmosphere where Manuel was terrified to make a mistake.
My takeaways:
1) Lee seems to know what he's doing. Comes across as credible to me.
2) We need to remember that this guy helped make Fitzpatrick a viable NFL QB.
3) I did not realize that over the last 5 games last year, Geno Smith was the 7th rated passer in the league. Seems like more credibility for Lee as a QB coach there.
4) I'm not sure exactly how much remembering a pamphlet tells you, but it does seem to indicate that Manuel does a good job preparing and retains information well. Those are two very important QB traits IMO.
5) Lee touches on my biggest criticism of Marrone's treatment of Manuel when he says that they just want EJ to "go out there and cut it loose." EJ clearly had problems making decisions and was overly conservative and I truly believe that it at least partially stems from Marrone creating an atmosphere where Manuel was terrified to make a mistake.
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