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2021 RB Lotto Ticket Rankings (1 Viewer)

xenon

Footballguy
Gainswell vs Darryton Evans....who'd you rather have and why...as your lottery ticket....

Granted Evans is on IR right now, he could be a stash until he is removed...but for argument sake, forget IR status - - -straight up who's the better talent? and if you could stash one on your bench, which who would it be and why?

Thanks

 

sushinsky4tsar

Footballguy
^^^ Gainwell by quite a bit for me.   Produced in his first game when Evans has done nothing but get injured with a year head start.   I get that Evans has the edge in draft capital, but I think Gainwell without a Sanders injury actually stands a chance of outproducing Evans with a Henry injury.

With that said, anyone who doesn't have an eligible player on IR and isn't scooping him up as a free lotto ticket to sit on IR is missing out.    Mike Boone is another one, but I would probably prioritize Evans there.

 

Long Ball Larry

Footballguy
^^^ Gainwell by quite a bit for me.   Produced in his first game when Evans has done nothing but get injured with a year head start.   I get that Evans has the edge in draft capital, but I think Gainwell without a Sanders injury actually stands a chance of outproducing Evans with a Henry injury.

With that said, anyone who doesn't have an eligible player on IR and isn't scooping him up as a free lotto ticket to sit on IR is missing out.    Mike Boone is another one, but I would probably prioritize Evans there.
totally agree.

 

sushinsky4tsar

Footballguy
24-man dynasty roster with no taxi squad.   I was excited to get Herbert at 3.7 and Kylin Hill at 4.5 in the rookie draft.    It's not like I was expecting anything at this point, other than hoping for a  small chance of promotion due to injury.  With that said,  I feel like I need a weekly support group to continue to invest my last bench spots on late round RB talents that are unlikely to factor in this season and have no clear pathway to relevance next season.   Based on Jermar Jefferson still being a free agent, and other owners pulling the plug on the likes of Eno Benjamin and Jaret Patterson , I think other owners are reaching the conclusion that it's not worth rostering these RBs in our format.

If I'm going to continue to hold RB stashes that are currently third at best on the current depth chart, I want to make sure that I'm holding the right ones.

Based on current MFL ownership rates, I'm seeing:

  1. Justin Jackson  50%   -  not sure he belongs here, a #2 that can't stay healthy, tried it, don't think it's ever going to happen at his point.
  2. Hasty 37% (rostered) -  interesting because of the team, probably an underrated talent, just feels like limited upside, even if he can be a depth piece 
  3. Rountree 34%  (rostered) - like him better than Kelley, but wouldn't be surprised if he's in the same place as Kelley next year
  4. McKinnon 34% - slightly interesting because of what's going on with CEH, but I think his day in the fantasy sun has come and gone, feels like KC could use a talent influx at the end of its RB depth chart
  5. Joshua Kelley 28% (rostered) - don't think he should be rostered over other available RBs at this point
  6. Patterson  26% -  would he be the fantasy commodity to own ahead of McKissic if Gibson goes down?   Possibly?
  7. Jermar Jefferson  22% - two quality backs ahead of him.  even if Swift goes down, does a DET RB become a league-winning talent?
  8. Chris Evans 22%  (rostered) - probably not my top late round rookie stash, but he should be rostered
  9. Kylin Hill  21%  (I'm holding) - getting some carries late, returning kicks
  10. Khali Herbert  20%  (I'm holding) - no carries, returning kicks, would he be the fantasy commodity to own ahead of Damien Williams if Montgomery goes down?
  11. Alex Collins 20% -  this is the veteran that I'm intrigued by, I think he could be the RB to own if Carson get injured
  12. JJ Taylor 20% - don't see the upside
  13. Jeff Wilson 19% - interesting, if he's still around in 3-4 weeks I might pounce, but don't want to hold for him to get injured in his first game back
  14. Jordan Wilkins 18% - buried, he has some fans that have gone to bat for his talent.
  15. Eno Benjamin  15% - 
  16. Darynton Evans 14% (rostered) -  don't think he can be the lead back if Henry goes down
  17. Funk 12%  (rostered) - people I trust don't like the talent, so I've stayed away


I value upside and high end potential with these stashes.   I like the guys I'm holding, Hill and Herbert.   I think I might like Patterson more.   I'm trying to build up the courage to drop Hill for Patterson.   I need to protect Gibson and also have Dillon, so I probably wouldn't be crestfallen if A. Jones went down.   I have Jermar Jefferson and Eno Benjamin in the same tier with all of these guys, but it's fair to note that I ultimately rostered Alex Collins ahead of these two.

Who are your favorites from this list?

 
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ldizzle

Footballguy
24-man dynasty roster with no taxi squad.   I was excited to get Herbert at 3.7 and Kylin Hill at 4.5 in the rookie draft.    It's not like I was expecting anything at this point, other than hoping for a  small chance of promotion due to injury.  With that said,  I feel like I need a weekly support group to continue to invest my last bench spots on late round RB talents that are unlikely to factor in this season and have no clear pathway to relevance next season.   Based on Jermar Jefferson still being a free agent, and other owners pulling the plug on the likes of Eno Benjamin and Jaret Patterson , I think other owners are reaching the conclusion that it's not worth rostering these RBs in our format.

If I'm going to continue to hold RB stashes that are currently third at best on the current depth chart, I want to make sure that I'm holding the right ones.

Based on current MFL ownership rates, I'm seeing:

  1. Justin Jackson  50%   -  not sure he belongs here, a #2 that can't stay healthy, tried it, don't think it's ever going to happen at his point.
  2. Hasty 37% (rostered) -  interesting because of the team, probably an underrated talent, just feels like limited upside, even if he can be a depth piece 
  3. Rountree 34%  (rostered) - like him better than Kelley, but wouldn't be surprised if he's in the same place as Kelley next year
  4. McKinnon 34% - slightly interesting because of what's going on with CEH, but I think his day in the fantasy sun has come and gone, feels like KC could use a talent influx at the end of its RB depth chart
  5. Joshua Kelley 28% (rostered) - don't think he should be rostered over other available RBs at this point
  6. Patterson  26% -  would he be the fantasy commodity to own ahead of McKissic if Gibson goes down?   Possibly?
  7. Jermar Jefferson  22% - two quality backs ahead of him.  even if Swift goes down, does a DET RB become a league-winning talent?
  8. Chris Evans 22%  (rostered) - probably not my top late round rookie stash, but he should be rostered
  9. Kylin Hill  21%  (I'm holding) - getting some carries late, returning kicks
  10. Khali Herbert  20%  (I'm holding) - no carries, returning kicks, would he be the fantasy commodity to own ahead of Damien Williams if Montgomery goes down?
  11. Alex Collins 20% -  this is the veteran that I'm intrigued by, I think he could be the RB to own if Carson get injured
  12. JJ Taylor 20% - don't see the upside
  13. Jeff Wilson 19% - interesting, if he's still around in 3-4 weeks I might pounce, but don't want to hold for him to get injured in his first game back
  14. Jordan Wilkins 18% - buried, he has some fans that have gone to bat for his talent.
  15. Eno Benjamin  15% - 
  16. Darynton Evans 14% (rostered) -  don't think he can be the lead back if Henry goes down
  17. Funk 12%  (rostered) - people I trust don't like the talent, so I've stayed away


I value upside and high end potential with these stashes.   I like the guys I'm holding, Hill and Herbert.   I think I might like Patterson more.   I'm trying to build up the courage to drop Hill for Patterson.   I need to protect Gibson and also have Dillon, so I probably wouldn't be crestfallen if A. Jones went down.   I have Jermar Jefferson and Eno Benjamin in the same tier with all of these guys, but it's fair to note that I ultimately rostered Alex Collins ahead of these two.

Who are your favorites from this list?
I’m intrigued by Funk. Evan Silva seems to like him based on athleticism. But there’s value in Rams RBs. Henderson is injury prone IMO and so is Michel. My guess is they’d bring in a vet if they both went down. But who knows, maybe they’d give him a shot 

 

socrates

Footballguy
24-man dynasty roster with no taxi squad.   I was excited to get Herbert at 3.7 and Kylin Hill at 4.5 in the rookie draft.    It's not like I was expecting anything at this point, other than hoping for a  small chance of promotion due to injury.  With that said,  I feel like I need a weekly support group to continue to invest my last bench spots on late round RB talents that are unlikely to factor in this season and have no clear pathway to relevance next season.   Based on Jermar Jefferson still being a free agent, and other owners pulling the plug on the likes of Eno Benjamin and Jaret Patterson , I think other owners are reaching the conclusion that it's not worth rostering these RBs in our format.

If I'm going to continue to hold RB stashes that are currently third at best on the current depth chart, I want to make sure that I'm holding the right ones.

Based on current MFL ownership rates, I'm seeing:

  1. Justin Jackson  50%   -  not sure he belongs here, a #2 that can't stay healthy, tried it, don't think it's ever going to happen at his point.
  2. Hasty 37% (rostered) -  interesting because of the team, probably an underrated talent, just feels like limited upside, even if he can be a depth piece 
  3. Rountree 34%  (rostered) - like him better than Kelley, but wouldn't be surprised if he's in the same place as Kelley next year
  4. McKinnon 34% - slightly interesting because of what's going on with CEH, but I think his day in the fantasy sun has come and gone, feels like KC could use a talent influx at the end of its RB depth chart
  5. Joshua Kelley 28% (rostered) - don't think he should be rostered over other available RBs at this point
  6. Patterson  26% -  would he be the fantasy commodity to own ahead of McKissic if Gibson goes down?   Possibly?
  7. Jermar Jefferson  22% - two quality backs ahead of him.  even if Swift goes down, does a DET RB become a league-winning talent?
  8. Chris Evans 22%  (rostered) - probably not my top late round rookie stash, but he should be rostered
  9. Kylin Hill  21%  (I'm holding) - getting some carries late, returning kicks
  10. Khali Herbert  20%  (I'm holding) - no carries, returning kicks, would he be the fantasy commodity to own ahead of Damien Williams if Montgomery goes down?
  11. Alex Collins 20% -  this is the veteran that I'm intrigued by, I think he could be the RB to own if Carson get injured
  12. JJ Taylor 20% - don't see the upside
  13. Jeff Wilson 19% - interesting, if he's still around in 3-4 weeks I might pounce, but don't want to hold for him to get injured in his first game back
  14. Jordan Wilkins 18% - buried, he has some fans that have gone to bat for his talent.
  15. Eno Benjamin  15% - 
  16. Darynton Evans 14% (rostered) -  don't think he can be the lead back if Henry goes down
  17. Funk 12%  (rostered) - people I trust don't like the talent, so I've stayed away


I value upside and high end potential with these stashes.   I like the guys I'm holding, Hill and Herbert.   I think I might like Patterson more.   I'm trying to build up the courage to drop Hill for Patterson.   I need to protect Gibson and also have Dillon, so I probably wouldn't be crestfallen if A. Jones went down.   I have Jermar Jefferson and Eno Benjamin in the same tier with all of these guys, but it's fair to note that I ultimately rostered Alex Collins ahead of these two.

Who are your favorites from this list?


Great list and analysis.  Jaret Patterson, Alex Collins, JJ Taylor and Jake Funk are perhaps my favorites from this list for short-term fantasy value.

Here is my quick take on each . . .

  • Justin Jackson/Larry Rountree/Joshua Kelley:  There is certainly fantasy value to be mined behind Ekeler, but I am not sure any Chargers' reserve RB has distinguished himself yet as a clear-cut handcuff.  This feels a bit too much like backup RB roulette.  I fear it could be a RBBC attack in the event of an Ekeler injury.
  • JaMycal Hasty (IR):  Hasty will now have to work his way back from injury, plus there is still the Shanahan factor to contend with.
  • Jerick McKinnon:  CEH ran hard Sunday to get 100 yards, and Andy Reid showed confidence in him despite the fumbles.  Still, CEH has not been the back the Chiefs had hoped for.  As it stands now, McKinnon would likely split duties with Darrel Williams as injury replacements for CEH, and neither has much stand-alone value.
  • Jaret Patterson:  McKissick would maintain his passing back role if Gibson fell, but Patterson could command a sizeable role.  Patterson is among my favorite handcuffs to own.
  • Jermar Jefferson:  Swift has shown toughness, playing well through injury, and Jamaal Williams has proven he could step in and deliver.  Jefferson is an intriguing dynasty investment, but it seems unlikely we are going to see any significant value from him this season.
  • Chris Evans:  There was some thought that Evans might step into the Gio role for the Bengals.  He has shown some receiving chops, and his role could expand, but Evans is clearly the third option behind Mixon and Perine for carries.  In most dynasty formats, I agree Evans should likely be rostered, but his short-term value may be minimal.
  • Kylin Hill:  AJ Dillon is the immediate handcuff to own behind Aaron Jones, but Kylin Hill fits the Aaron Jones role better, and he would likely push Dillon for touches.
  • Khalil Herbert: David Montgomery is going to face stacked fronts if the Bears turn to Fields at QB, adding to the punishment Montgomery already absorbs.  Damien Williams projects as the handcuff, but Khalil Herbert would undoubtedly push him for touches.  Herbert is an exciting and versatile runner, but without injuries to both Montgomery and Williams, Herbert is likely to see limited opportunities in the short term.
  • Alex Collins:  Collins might be the handcuff to Chris Carson in Seattle, but Rashaad Penny would likely factor in as well (for a week or two, when Penny would once again succumb to injury himself).  With his running style, Carson is a definite candidate to miss time, so getting his replacement is a priority.
  • JJ Taylor:  James White could miss some time, and Taylor profiles as a similar player who could step into that role.  This is, however, the Patriots, and trusting Bill Belichick has rarely led to fantasy RB success.  Grab him, but prepare to be frustrated.  If there is one plus, it is the Patriots' history deploying versatile receiving backs.
  • Jeff Wilson: It is hard to get terribly excited about a Shanahan RB who is still weeks away from returning.  I am probably going to try to avoid SF runners altogether.
  • Jordan Wilkins:  With the news that Marlon Mack could be on the move, Wilkins gets a bit of a boost.  Nyheim Hines has a role in this offense alongside Jonathan Taylor, and that role would likely expand if Taylor were to miss time; however, Hines does not project as a workhorse-type back.  Wilkins would likely see a significant increase in carries.  Wilkins' value is likely limited to an injury handcuff, but he is an intriguing handcuff.
  • Eno Benjamin:  Benjamin is buried on the Cardinals' depth chart.  Fantasy managers appear to value him more than the Cardinals.  Keep him on your watch list, but other than in deep dynasty leagues, Benjamin may not be worth a roster spot yet.
  • Darrynton Evans:  Evans should be returning soon from Injured Reserve, but he has struggled to stay on the field.  Evans was generating some excitement in training camp, and he could carve out a role in the Tennessee offense, although he will likely never have more than a limited role.
  • Jake Funk:  Funk's role is set to expand.  Sony Michel should lead this backfield, but he has never been a picture of durability himself.  (It should be noted that Funk has had his own injury concerns.)  Funk isn't going to wow you with speed, but he does many of the small things really well.  He could quickly endear himself to the Rams and carve out a role, but Henderson and Michel will limit Funk's fantasy value.
 

sushinsky4tsar

Footballguy
Here is my quick take on each . . .


Fantastic post week 3 analysis.   I don't disagree with anything that was written.   Ultimately, it's a lot of guys that would be splitting the backfield with another guy if the top guy went down.   However, some of these are #3s doing absolutely nothing right now, but could legitimately make a run at the 1A and pass the presumed backup.   True lotto tickets. 

An addition that I'm surprised to report made his way into my re-draft and dynasty waiver plans, Peyton Barber.   I have never been a big fan of the talent, but I think Gruden is crazy enough to keep him in a workhorse role if Jacobs can't hold up.   At this point, Jacobs seems about as rickety in 2021 as any of the other lead backs ahead of the guys on this list.     

 

daylight

Footballguy
What's everyone's opinion on Damien Williams in Chicago?

50% of remaining FAAB?  Might be a season changer in the sense of putting your team over the hump for 4 to 6 weeks - every win is precious.  Thoughts?

 
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skinsrule05

Footballguy
What's everyone's opinion on Damien Williams in Chicago?

50% of remaining FAAB?  Might be a season changer in the sense of putting your team over the hump for 4 to 6 weeks - every win is precious.  Thoughts?
I was going 25% as the Monty owner. I would like to get him but not ready to blow a bulk of my FAAB. I know Monty has had success but the Chicago offense is pretty bad. 

 

CanaBuc

Footballguy
Wayne Galman?

Inactive until this week. Had 6 carries for 29 yards. Davis not getting much with 14 yards on 13 carries same game.

Played well last year in Barkley's absence.

Younger at 27 than Davis. Maybe he gets a crack at taking the job away.

 
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Timmay

Footballguy
Wayne Galman?

Inactive until this week. Had 6 carries for 29 yards. Davis not getting much with 14 yards on 13 carries same game.

Played well last year in Barkley's absence.

Younger at 27 than Davis. Maybe he gets a crack at taking the job away.


I like this idea, but until one of Davis or Patterson go down, I think this is a true RBBC with all 3 guys getting mixed in. 

 

CanaBuc

Footballguy
I like this idea, but until one of Davis or Patterson go down, I think this is a true RBBC with all 3 guys getting mixed in.
Davis has been bleh at best. Gallman was a new addition to the team and took a few weeks with no preseason to learn the offense. Worth a stash and hold as has chance to take over.

Patterson only playing 1/3 or snaps so still room for 15 us touches for the lead back

 
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VikingFrog

Footballguy
Alex Collins:  Collins might be the handcuff to Chris Carson in Seattle, but Rashaad Penny would likely factor in as well (for a week or two, when Penny would once again succumb to injury himself).  With his running style, Carson is a definite candidate to miss time, so getting his replacement is a priority.
Nailed it.

 

VikingFrog

Footballguy
I drafted CEH and grabbed Williams as my last pick for this same line of thinking. Incredible offense is going to have opportunty.

Ty’son Williams, Darrell Williams, Tony Jones are all blending together with potential ripe opportunity should the situation arise and are hard for me to pick which dart to throw.

I think if I had to pick two it would be Tony Jones and Ty’Son. I’ve seen what Darrell can do and I was never too impressed.
Darrell will at least be capable of plunging it in from inside the 5. He’s proven he can do that with CEH playing well.

 

SoBeDad

Footballguy
daylight said:
At this point, who are your top 3 lotto RBs (remember “free”, not this week’s WW darlings)

mine are:

S Perine CIN

Hasty SFO

Hill GB
Is Dillon in the doghouse with the 2 fumbles??

 

VikingFrog

Footballguy
daylight said:
At this point, who are your top 3 lotto RBs (remember “free”, not this week’s WW darlings)

mine are:

S Perine CIN

Hasty SFO

Hill GB
I like this call. He’s getting some meaningful touches and making the best of them. If something happens to Mixon, which has happened before, he would be in line for some massive weeks. And that passing game will continue to open up the run game.

 I just traded Dillon in redraft, and trying to get my hands on Perine to add RB lottery depth tomorrow as a free agent hopefully and hold my waiver. 

 

sushinsky4tsar

Footballguy
  • I like Perine if his statline wasn't enough to get scooped already. 
  • I still like Ty'Son Williams to resurface this season.   Eyeball test says he's the most explosive back.   Stat lines shows the same thing.    It's possible that he's buried for good due to pass protection concerns and a couple of fumbles.   However, I lean more towards the idea that a team that got devastated by injuries at this position is saving their last remaining, somewhat dynamic back for the NFL's "second season" while also onboarding the veterans to see what they have left in the tank.   I've decided I'm willing to risk wasting a roster spot on this theory.   Reports of NFL teams calling for Ty'Son's services as soon as his carries fell off and he got the inactive tag. 
  • Painful trying to figure out when the guy is even going to be active, but Rhamondre Stevenson is still a talented runner and Damien Harris still hasn't proven that he can withstand the physical toll of a full season as a starting RB.
  • I'm on Jeff Wilson at this point.  The current backs don't seem to be blowing anyone away.  I don't like that the timetable seems to be moving in the wrong direction for Wilson and the 49ers upside in the run game might be overrated at this point.   I do like the idea that his value will only go up as his return gets closer and if more chaos reigns in the SF backfield. 
  • Deeper, but I still like a Jaret Patterson stash.   I hope I'm wrong, but I'm not seeing a happy ending for Antonio Gibson this season.   With that said, I'm much less bullish on any possibility that Patterson overtakes McKissic for fantasy production if Gibson is lost. 
  • I like Kylin Hill as a another deep one.    I'm open to him overtaking Dillon for the top spot if Jones goes down, even if that's not the chalk.
  • Kind of unexpected, but David Johnson has been dropped in a couple of my leagues.   I don't hate the idea of parking on him through the trade deadline if available.
While I tend to look to RBs for my bench stashes, this is the time of season where I shift to any possibility of an NFL trade boom regardless of position.   For instance, I'm choosing Watson in re-draft 1QB over a lot of these guys for the next week.

Any guess as to which lotto RBs are most likely to get a boost via trade (either them or their competition)?  In addition to David Johnson, maybe someone like Jordan Wilkins?   I would love to see the Bears ship Damien Williams back to KC.   I thought a Melvin Gordon trade might be a possibility (Mike Boone), but a lot of people shot that down in the Javonte Williams thread.   Really, there doesn't seem to be any smoke outside of Watson.

 
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VikingFrog

Footballguy
  • I like Perine if his statline wasn't enough to get scooped already. 
  • I still like Ty'Son Williams to resurface this season.   Eyeball test says he's the most explosive back.   Stat lines shows the same thing.    It's possible that he's buried for good due to pass protection concerns and a couple of fumbles.   However, I lean more towards the idea that a team that got devastated by injuries at this position is saving their last remaining, somewhat dynamic back for the NFL's "second season" while also onboarding the veterans to see what they have left in the tank.   I've decided I'm willing to risk wasting a roster spot on this theory.   Reports of NFL teams calling for Ty'Son's services as soon as his carries fell off and he got the inactive tag. 
  • Painful trying to figure out when the guy is even going to be active, but Rhamondre Stevenson is still a talented runner and Damien Harris still hasn't proven that he can withstand the physical toll of a full season as a starting RB.
  • I'm on Jeff Wilson at this point.  The current backs don't seem to be blowing anyone away.  I don't like that the timetable seems to be moving in the wrong direction for Wilson and the 49ers upside in the run game might be overrated at this point.   I do like the idea that his value will only go up as his return gets closer and if more chaos reigns in the SF backfield. 
  • Deeper, but I still like a Jaret Patterson stash.   I hope I'm wrong, but I'm not seeing a happy ending for Antonio Gibson this season.   With that said, I'm much less bullish on any possibility that Patterson overtakes McKissic for fantasy production if Gibson is lost. 
  • I like Kylin Hill as a another deep one.    I'm open to him overtaking Dillon for the top spot if Jones goes down, even if that's not the chalk.
  • Kind of unexpected, but David Johnson has been dropped in a couple of my leagues.   I don't hate the idea of parking on him through the trade deadline if available.
While I tend to look to RBs for my bench stashes, this is the time of season where I shift to any possibility of an NFL trade boom regardless of position.   For instance, I'm choosing Watson in re-draft 1QB over a lot of these guys for the next week.

Any guess as to which lotto RBs are most likely to get a boost via trade (either them or their competition)?  In addition to David Johnson, maybe someone like Jordan Wilkins?   I would love to see the Bears ship Damien Williams back to KC.   I thought a Melvin Gordon trade might be a possibility (Mike Boone), but a lot of people shot that down in the Javonte Williams thread.
The ol’ Kansas City D Williams D Williams tag team!

 

sushinsky4tsar

Footballguy
  •  
  • Kind of unexpected, but David Johnson has been dropped in a couple of my leagues.   I don't hate the idea of parking on him through the trade deadline if available.


Record time for me, but probably just a depth piece even with Ingram out the door.   Swapped him in for Tony Jones.

 

TZMarkie

Footballguy
Calling @daylight , time to start a new 2022 version of this thread.
With the preseason action now underway, its time to get the group started on what they see and who they are targeting.


:football:
 

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
I'll start with what I assume are going to be RB 3/4 types on the TEAM depth charts, UDFA style as well, guys you might find in the very late stages of a Draft to round out your bench.

-Jerome Ford looks pretty sensational as a Rookie RB in Cleveland and seem s like an easy RB2 there to replace Hunt who they can easily trade away with the talent and surplus they have behind the RB1 Stud Nick Chubb. No Watson for quite a bit of the season, the Browns might have to hand it off 40x a game. Lot of touches to go around.

Listed on another site I like to scroll thru...Tier 9-#93 ranking on RBs, that seems like he might not even get drafted in some Redraft leagues.
 
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BobbyLayne

Footballguy
Running Backs who should not be in this thread:

Bell Cow or Lead Back who plays entire series or Two Down backs who will have volume
  • JT
  • CMC
  • Ekeler
  • Harris
  • Cook
  • Henry
  • Mixon
  • Swift
  • Jones
  • Barkley
  • Fournette
  • Chubb
  • Javonte
  • Cam
  • Zeke
  • Kamara
  • Mongomery
  • Conner
  • Mitchell
  • Dobbins
  • CEH
  • Gordon
  • Edmonds
  • Penny

    Two-Down backs

  • Jacobs
  • Gibson
  • James Robinson
  • Damien Harris / Rhamonde Stevenson (IDK tbh)
  • Singletary
  • Breece Hall
  • Kenny Walker III
  • Dameon Pierce
  • Tyler Allgeier
  • Mark Ingram
  • Miles Sanders (I guess? not sure)

    3rd Down backs / NOT A HANDCUFF OR LOTTO TICKET

  • Etienne
  • Carter
  • Patterson
  • Hunt
  • James Cook
  • Pierre Strong, Jr
  • Rachaad White
  • Zamir White
  • McKissic
  • Gainwell
  • Hines
  • Darrel Williams
  • Drake
  • Burkhead
With the 3rd Down backs, I don't think these guys move into a lead / bell cow role if the starter goes down. They'll continue as 3rd down backs with an uptick in volume, but it will be a RBBC solution if there is an injury.

Everybody I have listed so far is on every Dynasty roster and will be drafted in every competitive Redraft 12 Teams or larger.

Handcuffs but also have a role with stand alone value (all will be rostered)
  • Dilllon
  • Ronald Jones (presuming he doesn't get cut which is within the range of outcomes
  • Pollard
  • Jamaal Williams





Handcuffs (not all these guys will be drafted but most will be)
  • Tyrion Davis-Price
  • Henderson
  • Mattison
  • Mostert
  • Isaiah Spiller
  • Khalil Herbert
  • Brian Robinson
  • D'Onta Foreman
  • Sony Michel
  • Keontay Ingram
  • D'Ernest Johnson
These guys might not have great stand alone value, but they will for sure see a strong uptick in volume if the starter is hurt. THESE ARE LOTTO TICKETS. Collect as many as your roster sizes and limits allow.

I am definitely not 100% up to speed on camp battles or PS game impressions. We can quibble over definitions or who really belongs on which list. Let's talk it out and discuss, I'm no guru. But those lists are a good a starting point.

Definitely definitely LMK if I have made any egregious errors or omissions.
 
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Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
Trey Sermon dead? Jeff Wilson?

I have no idea what Kyle will do this fall.

@Hot Sauce Guy
Mitchell will be the man until he isn’t.

Then it’s next man up. At various times I’ve heard Shanny say “Jeff came into camp in the best shape of his career” and also that Sermon came in ripped and ready.

I have no idea what the pecking order is - not sure anyone does. It’ll be like Pokémon - you gotta collect em all!
 

BobbyLayne

Footballguy
Trey Sermon dead? Jeff Wilson?

I have no idea what Kyle will do this fall.

@Hot Sauce Guy
Mitchell will be the man until he isn’t.

Then it’s next man up. At various times I’ve heard Shanny say “Jeff came into camp in the best shape of his career” and also that Sermon came in ripped and ready.

I have no idea what the pecking order is - not sure anyone does. It’ll be like Pokémon - you gotta collect em all!

Thanks, I'll leave them off for now. Neither has a undefined role, and who knows what happens if Elijah cannot go. Or if Shanahan decides he doesn't fit anymore.

That apple didn't fall far from the tree.
 

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
Trey Sermon dead? Jeff Wilson?

I have no idea what Kyle will do this fall.

@Hot Sauce Guy
Mitchell will be the man until he isn’t.

Then it’s next man up. At various times I’ve heard Shanny say “Jeff came into camp in the best shape of his career” and also that Sermon came in ripped and ready.

I have no idea what the pecking order is - not sure anyone does. It’ll be like Pokémon - you gotta collect em all!

Thanks, I'll leave them off for now. Neither has a undefined role, and who knows what happens if Elijah cannot go. Or if Shanahan decides he doesn't fit anymore.

That apple didn't fall far from the tree.
Dude will go buck wild and pull Olandis Gary out of retirement for a 1K yard season. :shrug:
 

Chaka

Footballguy
I don't think Zamir White profiles as a 3rd down back. Bolden & Drake fit that profile much more.

Zamir strikes me as having the potential to be the prime beneficiary of an injury to Jacobs who, btw, has the skill set to be an every down back. He is their most versatile RB.

It's the NE scheme so no back in Vegas will likely see more than 220 touches at the high end. More likely the time share may see two of them get to the 150-180 range.
 

BobbyLayne

Footballguy
I don't think Zamir White profiles as a 3rd down back. Bolden & Drake fit that profile much more.

Zamir strikes me as having the potential to be the prime beneficiary of an injury to Jacobs who, btw, has the skill set to be an every down back. He is their most versatile RB.

It's the NE scheme so no back in Vegas will likely see more than 220 touches at the high end. More likely the time share may see two of them get to the 150-180 range.

Think Zamir will be in a committee but we’re all just guessing. In the range of outcomes.

Historically JJ has been a good receiver and middling 3 down. Had some great years years from volume or TDs. But going forward with the regime change, I feel like he’s going to be more of a two down back. Definitely could be reading that wrong though? Would love more opinions.

@Chaka I think you and I are of the same mind philosophically. There are no absolutes in FF, there are range of outcomes. DND lists are dumb, virtually all players have value - question is at what ADP. The league is fluid. Players develop and improve, especially Y2 and Y3.

Shouldn’t limit ourselves by saying “I’ll never roster that guy bc I got burned.”Make data driven decisions, not emotional ones.
 

The Dude

Footballguy
Could you expand?

Is it because we just add whoever someone mentions without really discussing or evaluating if they belong?

Let's make it better

that’s pretty much it. In the past this seems like it just devolves into running back depth charts

And not enough time talking about who should be picked up this week or soon. Maybe I can do some of that work
 

BobbyLayne

Footballguy
Could you expand?

Is it because we just add whoever someone mentions without really discussing or evaluating if they belong?

Let's make it better

that’s pretty much it. In the past this seems like it just devolves into running back depth charts

And not enough time talking about who should be picked up this week or soon. Maybe I can do some of that work

You think maybe a rising / falling thing might work? Like let’s say 3 weeks in Javonte is getting 80% of the touches, now Smelly Gordon is a handcuff. Or Swift becomes such a 3 down force Williams loses stand alone value.

I think it’s really important to understand roles. One guy might be a Special Teamer and/or great in pass pro. But just because he’s 2nd in RB snaps doesn’t make him the handcuff. That guy might have an unchanged role after an injury, and an overlooked player who hasn’t been dressing becomes the lead back.
 

floods

Footballguy
Probably need to consider Hilliard/Haskins in Tennessee. King Henry has been durable until the foot injury last year, but every king falls at some point. I'm not saying these guys will be studs, but TN isn't going to become pass-heavy any time soon.
 

BobbyLayne

Footballguy
I see Etienne listed as a 3rd down back. His draft cost is awful high for a 3rd down back.

It’s almost as if the previous regime didn’t know what the **** they were doing.

You might be right - he’s almost an edge case, a 3rd down back who is a handcuff and might even be a 3 down lead back without injuries. Maybe in the same category I have Dillon & Pollard.

That said, James Robinson ain’t chopped liver. I think he keeps the job but I know the board has a few Etienne stans.
 

BigJim®

Footballguy
Handcuffs (not all these guys will be drafted but most will be)
  • Tyrion Davis-Price
  • Henderson
  • Mattison
  • Mostert
  • Isaiah Spiller
  • Khalil Herbert
  • Brian Robinson
  • D'Onta Foreman
  • Sony Michel
  • Keontay Ingram
  • D'Ernest Johnson
These guys might not have great stand alone value, but they will for sure see a strong uptick in volume if the starter is hurt. THESE ARE LOTTO TICKETS. Collect as many as your roster sizes and limits allow.
FWIW, it's not talked about but I do have doubts that Mattison is the sure fire handcuff for Dalvin. He well may be, but the Vikes have 1 player who splashed in part time work last season (Kene Nwangwu) and another rookie (Ty Chandler) who are better comps to what Dalvin provides, and could surprise FFers who hitched a wagon to Mattison. There's been rumblings even that Mattison may be expendable.
 

Chaka

Footballguy
I don't think Zamir White profiles as a 3rd down back. Bolden & Drake fit that profile much more.

Zamir strikes me as having the potential to be the prime beneficiary of an injury to Jacobs who, btw, has the skill set to be an every down back. He is their most versatile RB.

It's the NE scheme so no back in Vegas will likely see more than 220 touches at the high end. More likely the time share may see two of them get to the 150-180 range.

Think Zamir will be in a committee but we’re all just guessing. In the range of outcomes.

Historically JJ has been a good receiver and middling 3 down. Had some great years years from volume or TDs. But going forward with the regime change, I feel like he’s going to be more of a two down back. Definitely could be reading that wrong though? Would love more opinions.

@Chaka I think you and I are of the same mind philosophically. There are no absolutes in FF, there are range of outcomes. DND lists are dumb, virtually all players have value - question is at what ADP. The league is fluid. Players develop and improve, especially Y2 and Y3.

Shouldn’t limit ourselves by saying “I’ll never roster that guy bc I got burned.”Make data driven decisions, not emotional ones.
I didn't mean to suggest that Jacobs will be used regularly as a three down back, he won't in this offense. Only that of the backs on the roster Jacobs, and maybe Drake, are the only ones who profile as three down guys. Jacobs should absolutely be the lead back of the bunch but if that plays out to more than 180-200 opportunities it will be a bit of a surprise.

Damien Harris got 223 rush/targets last season in this offense but that is mostly because Rhamondre wasn't ready to contribute until after midway through the season. Jacobs, Drake & Bolden are ready to contribute from day one, Abdullah too I guess, so the time share should be evident from week one. Zamir may have some relevance but I would spend too much draft capital on him for 2022 as I think it will take injuries to both Jacobs and Drake before he will get significant enough opportunities to contribute too much in fantasy.
 

BobbyLayne

Footballguy
Handcuffs (not all these guys will be drafted but most will be)
  • Tyrion Davis-Price
  • Henderson
  • Mattison
  • Mostert
  • Isaiah Spiller
  • Khalil Herbert
  • Brian Robinson
  • D'Onta Foreman
  • Sony Michel
  • Keontay Ingram
  • D'Ernest Johnson
These guys might not have great stand alone value, but they will for sure see a strong uptick in volume if the starter is hurt. THESE ARE LOTTO TICKETS. Collect as many as your roster sizes and limits allow.
FWIW, it's not talked about but I do have doubts that Mattison is the sure fire handcuff for Dalvin. He well may be, but the Vikes have 1 player who splashed in part time work last season (Kene Nwangwu) and another rookie (Ty Chandler) who are better comps to what Dalvin provides, and could surprise FFers who hitched a wagon to Mattison. There's been rumblings even that Mattison may be expendable.

Agreed - chalk opinion is AM but he is not really that special. I know lots of Vikings fans who share that opinion. Especially with regime change, anything is possible.

With Cook and Swift, you can almost bake in 2-4 starts every year for the #2.
 

habsfan

Footballguy
Could you expand?

Is it because we just add whoever someone mentions without really discussing or evaluating if they belong?

Let's make it better

that’s pretty much it. In the past this seems like it just devolves into running back depth charts

And not enough time talking about who should be picked up this week or soon. Maybe I can do some of that work

You think maybe a rising / falling thing might work? Like let’s say 3 weeks in Javonte is getting 80% of the touches, now Smelly Gordon is a handcuff. Or Swift becomes such a 3 down force Williams loses stand alone value.

I think it’s really important to understand roles. One guy might be a Special Teamer and/or great in pass pro. But just because he’s 2nd in RB snaps doesn’t make him the handcuff. That guy might have an unchanged role after an injury, and an overlooked player who hasn’t been dressing becomes the lead back.
I am reminded of the year Moreno was activated after a McGahee injury and stepped over Hillman to start.
 

SoBeDad

Footballguy
The Miami RB position is unclear with the likely top 3 consisting of new additions, Edmonds, Mostert, and Michel. Edmonds is the most likely to be a lotto ticket. But Michel could be the GL back. The first depth chart listed both Edmonds and Mostert as 1st team, and Michel and Gaskin as 2nd team. The 2nd team RBs played in week 1, but not the 1st team. Gaskin looked fast. Mostert is practicing, but given his age, 30, and injury history, makes me say go with Edmonds as ~RB 30 in most formats.

Preseason game 2 may shed some light.
 

Mister CIA

Footballguy
I would add JAX RB Snoop Conner, rookie Ole Miss.

Robinson and Etienne are returning from Achilles and Lis Franc injuries, respectively (if memory serves). He's a powerful back with good instincts, but does lack the extra gear.
 

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