2021 RB Lotto Ticket Rankings (1 Viewer)

[BobbyLayne]

Could you expand?

Is it because we just add whoever someone mentions without really discussing or evaluating if they belong?

Let's make it better

that’s pretty much it. In the past this seems like it just devolves into running back depth charts

And not enough time talking about who should be picked up this week or soon. Maybe I can do some of that work

You think maybe a rising / falling thing might work? Like let’s say 3 weeks in Javonte is getting 80% of the touches, now Smelly Gordon is a handcuff. Or Swift becomes such a 3 down force Williams loses stand alone value.

I think it’s really important to understand roles. One guy might be a Special Teamer and/or great in pass pro. But just because he’s 2nd in RB snaps doesn’t make him the handcuff. That guy might have an unchanged role after an injury, and an overlooked player who hasn’t been dressing becomes the lead back.

I am reminded of the year Moreno was activated after a McGahee injury and stepped over Hillman to start.

I’m still mad at Cecil Lammey.

 

[BobbyLayne]

I would add JAX RB Snoop Conner, rookie Ole Miss.

Robinson and Etienne are returning from Achilles and Lis Franc injuries, respectively (if memory serves). He's a powerful back with good instincts, but does lack the extra gear.

WRT to Robinson, we now have some hope with some examples of recovery from Achilles injury: D’Onta Foreman, Marlon Mack, Cam Akers. He was expected to start camp on the PUP but he’s been no limited practices from Day 1.

 

[BobbyLayne]

The Miami RB position is unclear with the likely top 3 consisting of new additions, Edmonds, Mostert, and Michel. Edmonds is the most likely to be a lotto ticket. But Michel could be the GL back. The first depth chart listed both Edmonds and Mostert as 1st team, and Michel and Gaskin as 2nd team. The 2nd team RBs played in week 1, but not the 1st team. Gaskin looked fast. Mostert is practicing, but given his age, 30, and injury history, makes me say go with Edmonds as ~RB 30 in most formats.

Preseason game 2 may shed some light.

I like Chase whenever the price is right. But he’s little. Like, smaller than you imagine. Never gonna be more than a 175 touch guy.

IMO (150 & 159 touches the last two seasons in the desert.)

Definitely murky but monitoring.

 

[BobbyLayne]

@daylight hasn’t been on the board since April, but he might be seasonal. I’ll give it a few weeks. If he doesn’t turn up maybe we should start a new thread?

 

[Gally]

FWIW, it's not talked about but I do have doubts that Mattison is the sure fire handcuff for Dalvin. He well may be, but the Vikes have 1 player who splashed in part time work last season (Kene Nwangwu) and another rookie (Ty Chandler) who are better comps to what Dalvin provides, and could surprise FFers who hitched a wagon to Mattison. There's been rumblings even that Mattison may be expendable.

The Vikes did not extend Mattison and the writing is on the wall that he will be a FA after this year. I have no idea if that means he is losing his slip on handcuff status but it definitely means they likely won't be resigning him after this year.

 

[SoBeDad]

The Miami RB position is unclear with the likely top 3 consisting of new additions, Edmonds, Mostert, and Michel. Edmonds is the most likely to be a lotto ticket. But Michel could be the GL back. The first depth chart listed both Edmonds and Mostert as 1st team, and Michel and Gaskin as 2nd team. The 2nd team RBs played in week 1, but not the 1st team. Gaskin looked fast. Mostert is practicing, but given his age, 30, and injury history, makes me say go with Edmonds as ~RB 30 in most formats.

Preseason game 2 may shed some light.

I like Chase whenever the price is right. But he’s little. Like, smaller than you imagine. Never gonna be more than a 175 touch guy.

IMO (150 & 159 touches the last two seasons in the desert.)

Definitely murky but monitoring.

The South Florida crew will keep you posted. Edmonds is smaller, not that fast coming out of college. His agility and vision are good. Maybe we're underestimating him by attributing his success mostly to Kyler:

>>Next Gen Stats charts something called rushing yards over expected, a metric through which Edmonds has displayed his abilities. Averaging 0.58 yards over expected in 2021, only seven backs had a higher yards-over-expected mark than Edmonds. He also checked in with +10.2 EPA (expected points added) on 116 carries, which ranked third in the league behind Indianapolis' Jonathan Taylor and Dallas' Tony Pollard.

Edmonds also packs a punch. With 96 catches for 713 yards the last two seasons, and no sacks allowed on 132 pass blocking snaps the last three years, Edmonds has demonstrated the ability to play on all three downs. Of his 116 carries, 33 moved the chains for an impressive 28.4 percent conversion rate. He also converted 16-of-22 rush attempts with three-or-fewer yards to gain, a rate of 72.7 percent.<<

Five Things | Chase Edmonds

 

[socrates]

One of the RB lotto tickets I am looking to add where I can is Kyren Williams (LA Rams). All is quiet at the moment, as he works his way back from a broken foot in OTAs. He fell in the draft after he put up abysmal workout numbers, but the kid can play ball.

Julius Chestnut (Ten) is a deep lottery ticket worth monitoring. He has been impressing in camp, then showed some real flashes in the preseason opener, before fumbling the ball.

JJ Taylor (NE) is vastly undersized, but he has excellent hands out of the backfield. With James White's retirement, there is an opportunity for Taylor to carve out what has long been a valuable role in New England.

 

[Chaka]

JJ Taylor (NE) is vastly undersized, but he has excellent hands out of the backfield. With James White's retirement, there is an opportunity for Taylor to carve out what has long been a valuable role in New England.

I'm seeing the James Wright replacement narrative quite a bit around here. I wouldn't expect that role to simply continue with McDaniels and Brady no longer around.

Taylor also has some pretty solid competition in front of him.

 

[BigJim®]

FWIW, it's not talked about but I do have doubts that Mattison is the sure fire handcuff for Dalvin. He well may be, but the Vikes have 1 player who splashed in part time work last season (Kene Nwangwu) and another rookie (Ty Chandler) who are better comps to what Dalvin provides, and could surprise FFers who hitched a wagon to Mattison. There's been rumblings even that Mattison may be expendable.

The Vikes did not extend Mattison and the writing is on the wall that he will be a FA after this year. I have no idea if that means he is losing his slip on handcuff status but it definitely means they likely won't be resigning him after this year.

Right. My belief is they made that choice because they did not deem Mattison a critical player to keep, with other players being groomed for that role. As a fan, I'd prefer having an electric Kene replacing Cook vs a plodder. My sense is that the FF community isn't yet aware if it is targeting Mattison as a must handcuff target. Depending on whether they keep Ham/FB, I think there is a non zero chance Mattison is a final roster cut (if they see enough from Kene/Chandler... who really popped in the first preseason game). I picked up Kene for a single FA credit in my league, and Chandler is not even being drafted in some 4 round rookie drafts.

 

[shadrap]

Right. My belief is they made that choice because they did not deem Mattison a critical player to keep, with other players being groomed for that role. As a fan, I'd prefer having an electric Kene replacing Cook vs a plodder. My sense is that the FF community isn't yet aware if it is targeting Mattison as a must handcuff target. Depending on whether they keep Ham/FB, I think there is a non zero chance Mattison is a final roster cut (if they see enough from Kene/Chandler... who really popped in the first preseason game). I picked up Kene for a single FA credit in my league, and Chandler is not even being drafted in some 4 round rookie drafts.

good stuff. names I've never heard of & I like the Vikes.
thanx!

 

[Chaka]

Could you expand?

Is it because we just add whoever someone mentions without really discussing or evaluating if they belong?

Let's make it better

that’s pretty much it. In the past this seems like it just devolves into running back depth charts

And not enough time talking about who should be picked up this week or soon. Maybe I can do some of that work

That's a pretty spot on take. But that has some value, if very limited. It helps me familiarize myself with some of the names to pay attention to if an injury happens.

 

[Gally]

FWIW, it's not talked about but I do have doubts that Mattison is the sure fire handcuff for Dalvin. He well may be, but the Vikes have 1 player who splashed in part time work last season (Kene Nwangwu) and another rookie (Ty Chandler) who are better comps to what Dalvin provides, and could surprise FFers who hitched a wagon to Mattison. There's been rumblings even that Mattison may be expendable.

Right. My belief is they made that choice because they did not deem Mattison a critical player to keep, with other players being groomed for that role. As a fan, I'd prefer having an electric Kene replacing Cook vs a plodder. My sense is that the FF community isn't yet aware if it is targeting Mattison as a must handcuff target. Depending on whether they keep Ham/FB, I think there is a non zero chance Mattison is a final roster cut (if they see enough from Kene/Chandler... who really popped in the first preseason game). I picked up Kene for a single FA credit in my league, and Chandler is not even being drafted in some 4 round rookie drafts.

I picked up Kene as a thrown in last year (when I was acquiring Mattison). He is very explosive. I still think Mattison will be the guy for one more year but after that I think he is gone. I still like Mattison and think he can play.

If Cook did go down for an extended time I don't think Mattison would be used as the workhorse but he would still have a role. But I think Kene/Chandler would get touches as well.

 

[sushinsky4tsar]

Some deep ones. Waldman usually puts these guys on my radar, and most of these got his endorsement:

Kennedy Brooks phi & Abram Smith no - haven't looked for news, but haven't heard a peep which is never good for UDFAs
Pacheco kc - too late, "graduated", stock through the roof during the "shutdown", wish my rookie draft was in May
Z'Qandre White mia - similar to Brooks and Smith, haven't heard a lot, but some positivity, many bodies to jump over but none of them world-beaters.
Strong Jr. ne - White retirement has to be good, but there was also some negativity on him this past week concerning pass protection
Chandler min & Ford cle -- previously mentioned, strong and really strong showing in pre-week 1
Badie - feels like this year's smaller version of Rountree, another Mizzou back that some people liked as a late sleeper last year, which didn't pan out

 

[nirad3]

Some deep ones. Waldman usually puts these guys on my radar, and most of these got his endorsement:

Kennedy Brooks phi & Abram Smith no - haven't looked for news, but haven't heard a peep which is never good for UDFAs
Pacheco kc - too late, "graduated", stock through the roof during the "shutdown", wish my rookie draft was in May
Z'Qandre White mia - similar to Brooks and Smith, haven't heard a lot, but some positivity, many bodies to jump over but none of them world-beaters.
Strong Jr. ne - White retirement has to be good, but there was also some negativity on him this past week concerning pass protection
Chandler min & Ford cle -- previously mentioned, strong and really strong showing in pre-week 1
Badie - feels like this year's smaller version of Rountree, another Mizzou back that some people liked as a late sleeper last year, which didn't pan out

From what I read, the 4 RBs getting most of the time for the Saints right now have all looked "about the same", with Tony Jones being the one that stood out if pundits had to pick one. No link, saw on my Facebook feed since I get a lot of Saints updates.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

JJ Taylor (NE) is vastly undersized, but he has excellent hands out of the backfield. With James White's retirement, there is an opportunity for Taylor to carve out what has long been a valuable role in New England.

I'm seeing the James Wright replacement narrative quite a bit around here. I wouldn't expect that role to simply continue with McDaniels and Brady no longer around.

Taylor also has some pretty solid competition in front of him.

It’s kind of a Belichick thing also though. I can remember that roll going back to Kevin Faulk, and McDaniels was not there for all of it. I get Brady played a role also but Jones is a dink and dunk type QB.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Some deep ones. Waldman usually puts these guys on my radar, and most of these got his endorsement:

Kennedy Brooks phi & Abram Smith no - haven't looked for news, but haven't heard a peep which is never good for UDFAs
Pacheco kc - too late, "graduated", stock through the roof during the "shutdown", wish my rookie draft was in May
Z'Qandre White mia - similar to Brooks and Smith, haven't heard a lot, but some positivity, many bodies to jump over but none of them world-beaters.
Strong Jr. ne - White retirement has to be good, but there was also some negativity on him this past week concerning pass protection
Chandler min & Ford cle -- previously mentioned, strong and really strong showing in pre-week 1
Badie - feels like this year's smaller version of Rountree, another Mizzou back that some people liked as a late sleeper last year, which didn't pan out

I was able to get Pacheco in 4 of 5 dynasty leagues all in Rounds 4 and 5 so I’m glad my drafts were early.

 

[Chaka]

JJ Taylor (NE) is vastly undersized, but he has excellent hands out of the backfield. With James White's retirement, there is an opportunity for Taylor to carve out what has long been a valuable role in New England.

I'm seeing the James Wright replacement narrative quite a bit around here. I wouldn't expect that role to simply continue with McDaniels and Brady no longer around.

Taylor also has some pretty solid competition in front of him.

It’s kind of a Belichick thing also though. I can remember that roll going back to Kevin Faulk, and McDaniels was not there for all of it. I get Brady played a role also but Jones is a dink and dunk type QB.

Well Bolden maxed out the targets for NE RBs last season with 49. James White never had a full season under 54 targets and that was his second season. 54, 86, 72, 123, 95 & 62 I think any NE RB would be lucky to get 50 targets this season.

And looking back to 2000 BB never really used his receiving backs to the extent that McDaniels did. Faulk had a couple 60+ target seasons and one at 53 but under McDaniels their usage truly exploded, and we saw those 70, 80+ target seasons from the position. When McDaniels went to Denver the receiving backs saw another dip into the (53, 44 & 31 targets) until McDaniels returned.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Trey Sermon dead? Jeff Wilson?

I have no idea what Kyle will do this fall.

@Hot Sauce Guy

What's going on in Miami?

@Ministry of Pain

Chase is going to be used quite a bit but I wouldn't actually look for a huge leap rushing as much as he will eat up a lot of short passes for Tua.
-Raheem will be lucky to make the roster and even luckier if his season hasn't ended by Week 6 or 8. I'm not looking to draft him but you do have to keep an eye on him.
-Sony Michel possibly RB3, could be cut as he was brought in after most of the others and even the UDFA.
-Gaskin looks great, picking up the offense and he currently sits RB4 but could easily jump Michel and then I have no faith in Moestert staying healthy with only 9 games total the last 2 seasons and he's 30 yrs old, Gaskin could be a lottery ticket that actually has some proof of existence.

Let's peer ahead to Week 6 or Week 10 with still quite a bit of football left, Gaskin could find himself getting a lot of touches in the end. i think Kareem Hunt should be acquired and 2 or 3 of these guys shown the door. Hunt would be the RB1, Day 1 if he were to come to Miami.

 

[Mister CIA]

Trey Sermon dead? Jeff Wilson?

I have no idea what Kyle will do this fall.

@Hot Sauce Guy

What's going on in Miami?

@Ministry of Pain

I just picked up "not talked about" SF RB Jordan Mason (UDFA from Georgia Tech). Turned in a 9-57 this week vs Vikings. 5'11/223, north-south kind of runner who could succeed in the SF offense if he gets an opportunity. It's not a huge stretch to think that he could move ahead of Hasty, Sermon, and King on the depth chart after pre-season game 4, and then maybe push TDP for #2 on the roster.

If you're looking for a flyer to occupy the last spot on your dynasty roster, this could be your guy.

I'm spending waaaaay too much time tracking SF RBs and Baltimore WRs.

 

[TapRackBang]

FWIW, it's not talked about but I do have doubts that Mattison is the sure fire handcuff for Dalvin. He well may be, but the Vikes have 1 player who splashed in part time work last season (Kene Nwangwu) and another rookie (Ty Chandler) who are better comps to what Dalvin provides, and could surprise FFers who hitched a wagon to Mattison. There's been rumblings even that Mattison may be expendable.

The Vikes did not extend Mattison and the writing is on the wall that he will be a FA after this year. I have no idea if that means he is losing his slip on handcuff status but it definitely means they likely won't be resigning him after this year.

I'm not so sure Ty Chandler doesn't take that job sometime this season.

 

[zamboni]

FWIW, it's not talked about but I do have doubts that Mattison is the sure fire handcuff for Dalvin. He well may be, but the Vikes have 1 player who splashed in part time work last season (Kene Nwangwu) and another rookie (Ty Chandler) who are better comps to what Dalvin provides, and could surprise FFers who hitched a wagon to Mattison. There's been rumblings even that Mattison may be expendable.

The Vikes did not extend Mattison and the writing is on the wall that he will be a FA after this year. I have no idea if that means he is losing his slip on handcuff status but it definitely means they likely won't be resigning him after this year.

I'm not so sure Ty Chandler doesn't take that job sometime this season.

Agree 100%. We're so used to Mattison being the automatic handcuff with the ability to basically replicate Cook if (when) Dalvin is hurt, but the new coaching regime has no ties to Mattison and could very well prefer the guy they drafted (Chandler).