Trying to read the early tea leaves for next year. Standard scoring. Think keeper format, so a hybrid between redraft and true dynasty. My own process leads to a bias towards more short term players, rather than dynasty forward thinking. Rookies not yet included. Inevitably, they will be added.
Notes: RB is again at a premium. Reliability falls off a cliff quickly, thus the position will be overdrafted. WR is super deep. Huge cluster of very solid options. I'll again try and build with RB and buy WR in bulk later. Plenty of value to be had there. TE remains a two man show. I've got 4 QB in my top 50: Mahomes, Wilson, Murray, and Allen.
WR is so deep that D Moore, Evans, ARob, Higgins, and Kupp are all off the early list. Lamar Jackson is also out, but that may change. The Rams and Bills backfields could produce a league winner, but the carries need to be more concentrated. Somebody will land Moss or Akers (my bets to win the lion's share), eventually. Those guys may move up. This is only a rough first pass, as much on instinct as analysis. Looking forward to conversation.....
2021 Preliminary Rankings
1. McCaffrey- Injuries aside, the per scoring numbers remain off the charts. He’s the single best performer, regardless of format.
2. Kamara- The positive touchdown regression has come to fruition. Armed with a new contract and a strong supporting cast, will be a top 5 fixture for years to come.
3. Cook- Will happily accept the periodic dings for electric, consistent performance.
4. Henry- Only a lack of involvement in the receiving game keeps him off the top spot.
5. Zeke- For the turnstile at QB this year and patchwork line play, still produces consistently.
6. D. Adams- My first “had to think about it” selection. Have to take Adams over the remaining RBs because he simply always produces.
7. Jacobs- If they only gave him more passing game touches, what could be.
8. M. Thomas- Still an easy choice in round #1. A virtual lock for 110 grabs + in 2021.
9. A. Jones- Proclamations of an efficiency regression proved to be false. Still love him in this offense.
10. DK Metcalf- Russ is cooking. DK is #1 target. Hasn’t peaked yet.
11. T. Hill- The best weapon in football plays on the best team with the best QB.
12. D. Hopkins- Will be closer to 2019 than 2020 form in 2021 as relationship with Murray grows.
13. Barkley- Injury rehab will tell the story. Back to back injury plagued seasons. Could move up to as high as #7 for me if process falls into place by camp. Could also move well down into the teens.
14. Mixon- Hoping Burrow comes back in full and line issues addressed in the draft.
15. K. Allen- Targets with Herbert are insane. Risk averse folks may move him into first round.
16. AJ Brown- Will be a full- fledged superstar if he plays 16 games. TO like strength and playmaking ability.
17. M. Sanders- Has first round ceiling. Can’t rank higher due to dings and surrounding cast.
18. CEH- Think volume increases next year. Bell not a long- term impediment.
19. N. Chubb- Still a beast. Hunt limits upside but high floor remains in a run first offense.
20. A. Thielen- Produces despite Cook’s hegemony, Jefferson’s upside, and Cousins’s limitations as a passer.
21. J. Robinson- Lack of name value will push him down many lists next summer, he’s the real deal and will likely be a value in drafts.
22. D. Swift- Initial landing spot presumes change in coach and/or touch competition at RB. Falls into round #3 if those variables do not change, but the skill set is there.
23. J. Taylor- Hasn’t looked great, but he is a rookie and all the other pieces are there to be really good.
24. Claypool- Who would have thought that Robinson and Claypool would be, respectively, the best RB and WR at their position after the draft? If Ju-Ju leaves, imagine what could be.
25. Dobbins- Need Ingram or Edwards to leave. Has looked really good in game action I’ve seen.
26. T. Lockett- Might be 1B to Metcalf’s 1A but plenty productive.
27. Mahomes- The best actual QB is also the best fantasy QB- plenty of surrounding talent leads to consistent play and production.
28. A. Ekeler- A truly dynamic playmaker that should help Herbert’s ascension.
29. J. Jones- Atlanta’s passing game is just not the same without him. HOF someday.
30. Kittle- Still the best FF TE. Will Jimmy G. be back?
31. J. Conner- Hasn’t hit the upside we all hoped for but a solid RB 2.
32. S. Diggs- Much more productive than most anticipated. Allen’s lead dog.
33. T. Kelce- There are two elite TEs for 2021. Kelce is one of them.
34. A. Cooper- If Dak is back, remains a legitimate, back end WR 1.
35. K. Golladay- Will be a great value in 2021. Team shakeup on the horizon
36. Hunt- The Browns are set up to feature multiple RBs and can allow both to produce.
37. C. Ridley- We’ve learned that Ridley needs Julio more than Julio needs Ridley
38. R. Wilson- The chef cooks in a kitchen full of top shelf ingredients.
39. K. Murray- Still growing as a passer, but already elite as a point producer.
40. K. Drake- Has not lived up to the summer hype but I still believe he will be better in 2021.
41. R. Woods- Always produces rock solid numbers but lacks elite upside.
42. A. Gibson- True dynasty players have him higher. Like talent, hate situation.
43. C. Carson- Simply gets hurt too much to take higher. Money when he plays.
44. CD Lamb- Will be higher in dynasty. Has legit WR1 skills. Cooper leaves?
45. J. Jefferson- Has flashed big time when given the targets.
46. J. Allen- Has made the leap few thought possible as a passer. Set up well for success.
47. McLaurin- New QB will help significantly. Has a terrific skill set.
48. Godwin- Don’t feel AB will be in TB long term, Evans not ideal for Brady’s skill set, leaving Godwin as an excellent WR option next year.
49. R. Jones- Moves up if Fournette leaves.
50. D. Harris- Has flashed as early down RB. I’ll roll the dice.
Notes: RB is again at a premium. Reliability falls off a cliff quickly, thus the position will be overdrafted. WR is super deep. Huge cluster of very solid options. I'll again try and build with RB and buy WR in bulk later. Plenty of value to be had there. TE remains a two man show. I've got 4 QB in my top 50: Mahomes, Wilson, Murray, and Allen.
WR is so deep that D Moore, Evans, ARob, Higgins, and Kupp are all off the early list. Lamar Jackson is also out, but that may change. The Rams and Bills backfields could produce a league winner, but the carries need to be more concentrated. Somebody will land Moss or Akers (my bets to win the lion's share), eventually. Those guys may move up. This is only a rough first pass, as much on instinct as analysis. Looking forward to conversation.....
2021 Preliminary Rankings
1. McCaffrey- Injuries aside, the per scoring numbers remain off the charts. He’s the single best performer, regardless of format.
2. Kamara- The positive touchdown regression has come to fruition. Armed with a new contract and a strong supporting cast, will be a top 5 fixture for years to come.
3. Cook- Will happily accept the periodic dings for electric, consistent performance.
4. Henry- Only a lack of involvement in the receiving game keeps him off the top spot.
5. Zeke- For the turnstile at QB this year and patchwork line play, still produces consistently.
6. D. Adams- My first “had to think about it” selection. Have to take Adams over the remaining RBs because he simply always produces.
7. Jacobs- If they only gave him more passing game touches, what could be.
8. M. Thomas- Still an easy choice in round #1. A virtual lock for 110 grabs + in 2021.
9. A. Jones- Proclamations of an efficiency regression proved to be false. Still love him in this offense.
10. DK Metcalf- Russ is cooking. DK is #1 target. Hasn’t peaked yet.
11. T. Hill- The best weapon in football plays on the best team with the best QB.
12. D. Hopkins- Will be closer to 2019 than 2020 form in 2021 as relationship with Murray grows.
13. Barkley- Injury rehab will tell the story. Back to back injury plagued seasons. Could move up to as high as #7 for me if process falls into place by camp. Could also move well down into the teens.
14. Mixon- Hoping Burrow comes back in full and line issues addressed in the draft.
15. K. Allen- Targets with Herbert are insane. Risk averse folks may move him into first round.
16. AJ Brown- Will be a full- fledged superstar if he plays 16 games. TO like strength and playmaking ability.
17. M. Sanders- Has first round ceiling. Can’t rank higher due to dings and surrounding cast.
18. CEH- Think volume increases next year. Bell not a long- term impediment.
19. N. Chubb- Still a beast. Hunt limits upside but high floor remains in a run first offense.
20. A. Thielen- Produces despite Cook’s hegemony, Jefferson’s upside, and Cousins’s limitations as a passer.
21. J. Robinson- Lack of name value will push him down many lists next summer, he’s the real deal and will likely be a value in drafts.
22. D. Swift- Initial landing spot presumes change in coach and/or touch competition at RB. Falls into round #3 if those variables do not change, but the skill set is there.
23. J. Taylor- Hasn’t looked great, but he is a rookie and all the other pieces are there to be really good.
24. Claypool- Who would have thought that Robinson and Claypool would be, respectively, the best RB and WR at their position after the draft? If Ju-Ju leaves, imagine what could be.
25. Dobbins- Need Ingram or Edwards to leave. Has looked really good in game action I’ve seen.
26. T. Lockett- Might be 1B to Metcalf’s 1A but plenty productive.
27. Mahomes- The best actual QB is also the best fantasy QB- plenty of surrounding talent leads to consistent play and production.
28. A. Ekeler- A truly dynamic playmaker that should help Herbert’s ascension.
29. J. Jones- Atlanta’s passing game is just not the same without him. HOF someday.
30. Kittle- Still the best FF TE. Will Jimmy G. be back?
31. J. Conner- Hasn’t hit the upside we all hoped for but a solid RB 2.
32. S. Diggs- Much more productive than most anticipated. Allen’s lead dog.
33. T. Kelce- There are two elite TEs for 2021. Kelce is one of them.
34. A. Cooper- If Dak is back, remains a legitimate, back end WR 1.
35. K. Golladay- Will be a great value in 2021. Team shakeup on the horizon
36. Hunt- The Browns are set up to feature multiple RBs and can allow both to produce.
37. C. Ridley- We’ve learned that Ridley needs Julio more than Julio needs Ridley
38. R. Wilson- The chef cooks in a kitchen full of top shelf ingredients.
39. K. Murray- Still growing as a passer, but already elite as a point producer.
40. K. Drake- Has not lived up to the summer hype but I still believe he will be better in 2021.
41. R. Woods- Always produces rock solid numbers but lacks elite upside.
42. A. Gibson- True dynasty players have him higher. Like talent, hate situation.
43. C. Carson- Simply gets hurt too much to take higher. Money when he plays.
44. CD Lamb- Will be higher in dynasty. Has legit WR1 skills. Cooper leaves?
45. J. Jefferson- Has flashed big time when given the targets.
46. J. Allen- Has made the leap few thought possible as a passer. Set up well for success.
47. McLaurin- New QB will help significantly. Has a terrific skill set.
48. Godwin- Don’t feel AB will be in TB long term, Evans not ideal for Brady’s skill set, leaving Godwin as an excellent WR option next year.
49. R. Jones- Moves up if Fournette leaves.
50. D. Harris- Has flashed as early down RB. I’ll roll the dice.