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2022 Hindsight - Which of these situations could we have predicted? (1 Viewer)

Scoresman

Footballguy
There will always be situations that happen over the course of the season that everyone fails to predict and the pre-season consensus is way off on. But there seem to be some pretty wild outliers this year in terms of team offenses in the NFL compared to how we (and Vegas) predicted. These have had pretty big fantasy implications. Were any of the situations below predictable in any way? Were there signs we should have seen coming and can we look for these signs when evaluating teams next year?

1. Denver Broncos - This is the biggest surprise. With Russell Wilson coming to town, everyone thought they would drastically improve offensively. Instead they are at the bottom of the offensive ratings. What happened here? Is Russell Wilson washed up? I don't think the Javonte injury would cause that much of a dip in the offense.

2. Indianapolis Colts - Same kind of situation as the Broncos, but not as surprising. Still, nobody expected the Colts to be as bad as they were this year or JT would not have been the consensus 1, and Pittman would not have been such a pre-season favorite. While no one thought the Colts would be a top offense, the consensus thought they would be good enough to support some players at ADP. Everyone thought this team would be improved with Matt Ryan on board. From googling what may have gone wrong, I can't seem to pinpoint what went wrong. It seems to be a combination of bad coaching and an underperforming O-line. But I don't know how we could've spotted such a low floor in the pre-season.

3. Miami Dolphins - Few would've predicted the Dolphins to be a top 10 offense. I remember reading a statement that was analyzing Hill and Waddle. It said that there was no way the Dolphins could support two top 20 wide receivers which I agreed with at the time. In reality, Hill and Waddle are both in the top 10 (in my league's scoring), which is nuts. I seem to remember most people thinking the Dolphins would be more run heavy. What did we not see here? Too much talent in the passing game to not be utilized?

4. Seattle Seahawks - Same situation. An offense that performed way above expectations. I don't know how anyone could have predicted Geno Smith having the kind of success he is having.

Any other surprising team situations? What can we learn from these when going into next year's projections?
 
Miami and Indy have been exactly what I thought they would be. I think people for whatever reason thought Indy was getting 2016 Matt Ryan, and not the guy who Atlanta decided they were done with. Whereas Miami looked a 2 WR pass funnel. Now I won't claim I had Hill and Waddle both being top-10 guys, but top-20 seemed pretty obvious in my eyes.

In Denver's case, I think people made the assumption that Hackett was a competent play caller, after years in GB. He is not and is the worst HC in the NFL (sorry Kingsbury) and he's dragged everyone down. Also losing 80% of their OL, in addition to Javonte and seemingly never having Sutton/Jeudy fully healthy together, especially after losing Patrick before the season, hasn't helped. Wilson is no longer a franchise QB, but I don't think he's washed yet. He's just no longer capable of making chicken soup out of you know what.

Seattle has been a huge surprise, and I guess the thing to learn there, is we knew the skill guys were good, and that Carroll had a track record of success, but even then, this Geno season is mind blowing.
 
Miami and Indy have been exactly what I thought they would be. I think people for whatever reason thought Indy was getting 2016 Matt Ryan, and not the guy who Atlanta decided they were done with. Whereas Miami looked a 2 WR pass funnel. Now I won't claim I had Hill and Waddle both being top-10 guys, but top-20 seemed pretty obvious in my eyes.

In Denver's case, I think people made the assumption that Hackett was a competent play caller, after years in GB. He is not and is the worst HC in the NFL (sorry Kingsbury) and he's dragged everyone down. Also losing 80% of their OL, in addition to Javonte and seemingly never having Sutton/Jeudy fully healthy together, especially after losing Patrick before the season, hasn't helped. Wilson is no longer a franchise QB, but I don't think he's washed yet. He's just no longer capable of making chicken soup out of you know what.

Seattle has been a huge surprise, and I guess the thing to learn there, is we knew the skill guys were good, and that Carroll had a track record of success, but even then, this Geno season is mind blowing.

You didn't think Ryan was an upgrade from Wentz or at least a push? No one was expecting 2016 Ryan, and 2016 Ryan wasn't needed to justify the ADP of their offensive players. But I think the consensus was they wouldn't be significantly worse this year because of Matt Ryan.
 
Miami and Indy have been exactly what I thought they would be. I think people for whatever reason thought Indy was getting 2016 Matt Ryan, and not the guy who Atlanta decided they were done with. Whereas Miami looked a 2 WR pass funnel. Now I won't claim I had Hill and Waddle both being top-10 guys, but top-20 seemed pretty obvious in my eyes.

In Denver's case, I think people made the assumption that Hackett was a competent play caller, after years in GB. He is not and is the worst HC in the NFL (sorry Kingsbury) and he's dragged everyone down. Also losing 80% of their OL, in addition to Javonte and seemingly never having Sutton/Jeudy fully healthy together, especially after losing Patrick before the season, hasn't helped. Wilson is no longer a franchise QB, but I don't think he's washed yet. He's just no longer capable of making chicken soup out of you know what.

Seattle has been a huge surprise, and I guess the thing to learn there, is we knew the skill guys were good, and that Carroll had a track record of success, but even then, this Geno season is mind blowing.

You didn't think Ryan was an upgrade from Wentz or at least a push? No one was expecting 2016 Ryan, and 2016 Ryan wasn't needed to justify the ADP of their offensive players. But I think the consensus was they wouldn't be significantly worse this year because of Matt Ryan.
I thought Ryan was at best a sideways move and likely a downgrade. Wentz wasn't bad in 2021, he just was really bad in a must win game against the Jags in the last week of the season. The Colts also had a lot of luck in 2021.

The only Colt I really liked anywhere near their ADP this season was Pittman. I didn't even consider Taylor at #1 (I had the pick in 1 draft and took CMC, and also preferred Jefferson) because I was worried the team would be less run heavy with Ryan at QB, which would play against their strength.

I don't wanna be the guy who brags about being right a preseason call, without being transparent about something I got wrong, so I will add that I was way too low on Davante Adams. I had him at WR9, below Hill and AJ Brown, which is fine, but also below Lamb and Higgins. I thought he'd miss Rodgers, and I thought Waller/Renfrow, especially Waller, would be bigger issues, which perhaps they would have been if they'd stayed healthy.
 
3. Miami Dolphins - Few would've predicted the Dolphins to be a top 10 offense. I remember reading a statement that was analyzing Hill and Waddle. It said that there was no way the Dolphins could support two top 20 wide receivers which I agreed with at the time. In reality, Hill and Waddle are both in the top 10 (in my league's scoring), which is nuts. I seem to remember most people thinking the Dolphins would be more run heavy. What did we not see here? Too much talent in the passing game to not be utilized?
We'll have to see if MIA actually ends up as a Top 10 scoring offense once the season is over. They are currently 9th. They still have to play NYJ, NE, and GB (who rank 4th, 7th, and 15th in fewest points allowed). They have to travel to NE for an early January game. MIA is averaging half a point a game more than the #11 offense. The teams right behind them are the Raiders, Niners, and Jaguars (each of those teams seem to have been scoring well lately and have averaged right around 30 ppg the last few games).

If they actually end up the season in the Top 10, that will mark the first time they did that since the 2001 season. At least for now, they are averaging +4.5 ppg compared to last season. It will probably be close to whether the non-Top 10 streak continues another year.
 
I expected Miami's offense to be very good. Tua has been better than I expected, but I always figured they would put up points with those receivers.
 
I think the Giants have been a pleasant surprise and the Bucs have been a shocking surprise.

The Bucs didn't surprise me so much. Their offensive line started dropping like flies in the pre-season and I remember a lot of people thinking it would have a huge impact.
 
I didn’t think at this point that the following teams would make the playoffs by winning out: JAC, WAS, CAR, and NE. There’s also NYJ, SEA, and DET, who would all be very close to locks if they win out.
 
Bad QB play killed so much of my team. Never thought Evans/Andrews would not have a combined TD in 10 weeks when they were touted to have 12-15 each. That goes for a lot of players. Brady, Rodgers, Jackson, Wilson and more have been beyond terrible. I was down on all those QB’s (took Allen) but never thought they would be THIS bad. Still alive in the semi’s somehow and that’s after drafting JT #1. Beyond my worst nightmare with him. Couldn’t see it.
 
This season has been amazing.

So many playoff teams from last year have been bad. Packers, Bucs, Rams all were predicted to be ~ 10/11 wins.
Eagles were supposed to be good - but this good? They're already 4 wins over the 9/10 win prediction.
If the Lions win their next 3 they'll be up there too, they're at the preseason projection of 7 wins now.
 
2. Indianapolis Colts - Same kind of situation as the Broncos, but not as surprising. Still, nobody expected the Colts to be as bad as they were this year or JT would not have been the consensus 1, and Pittman would not have been such a pre-season favorite. While no one thought the Colts would be a top offense, the consensus thought they would be good enough to support some players at ADP. Everyone thought this team would be improved with Matt Ryan on board. From googling what may have gone wrong, I can't seem to pinpoint what went wrong. It seems to be a combination of bad coaching and an underperforming O-line. But I don't know how we could've spotted such a low floor in the pre-season
They were overrated, and played to their talent level. For whatever reason, football media thought the Colts roster was better than it is. This is who they are, that's why you cannot pin down what went wrong. They signed a washed up QB, and have no edge rushers. Their best players are at non impact positions.

But they have excellent publicists, apparently.
 
THe shock of DEN is worse because of the shock that is SEA.

Which is great. The best thing about the Raiders season has been the Broncos season. 😂
 
The Justin Fields breakout was highly predictable if you thought the new Bears staff weren't idiots. Fields was a top-10 QB in each of his final 4 games as a rookie and much of that was due to his legs, and that was just from scrambling, not designed runs, as Matt Nagy stubbornly stuck to the offense he wanted to run, which was based around having Dalton at QB.
 
Fields numbers are amazing, considering the weapons.

A surprise is Carolina - it’s a product of the division mainly. They have been pretty respectable after the CMC trade.

The team that was easy for me to spot was Pitt. If you don’t have a qb, you have little chance.
 
Between those 4 I think it is Indy pretty easily for one simple reason...I don't think anyone can be too surprised that Matt Ryan is washed up at age 37 when he was already showing signs of decline...they are also a team that has not really done much with their roster outside of the draft...they just seem very stagnant...I think Denver is definitely the most surprising because I don't think anyone thought Wilson would be this bad...that contract has a chance to be the worst one in NFL history.
 
Between those 4 I think it is Indy pretty easily for one simple reason...I don't think anyone can be too surprised that Matt Ryan is washed up at age 37 when he was already showing signs of decline...they are also a team that has not really done much with their roster outside of the draft...they just seem very stagnant...I think Denver is definitely the most surprising because I don't think anyone thought Wilson would be this bad...that contract has a chance to be the worst one in NFL history.
Denver is the most surprising to me and why I did poorly in FF this year. Drafting Wilson and Sutton was a disaster. Taking Andrews in the third round certainly didn’t help either. I will never draft a TE before round 5 or 6 again.
 
If I'm looking at this correctly, Matt Ryan's stats proportioned to playing 17 games aren't too far off from what he did in Atlanta a year ago, and not too far off from Wentz last year, where the Colts were still able to support a #1 RB. I don't think the fault there lies in the sidegrade to Ryan. No one was expecting a huge upgrade there, but not many were expecting the 30th ranked offense either.
 
I think my surprises were that Las Vegas, The Rams, and the Broncos all took a step back offensively.

I also did not expect Seattle, Miami, and the Giants to be as good offensively as they are (although I was high on Saquon)
 
Never in a million years would I have expected the Seahawks to have been competing for the NFC west this year.

It’s truly incredible.
 
3. Miami Dolphins - Few would've predicted the Dolphins to be a top 10 offense. I remember reading a statement that was analyzing Hill and Waddle. It said that there was no way the Dolphins could support two top 20 wide receivers which I agreed with at the time. In reality, Hill and Waddle are both in the top 10 (in my league's scoring), which is nuts. I seem to remember most people thinking the Dolphins would be more run heavy. What did we not see here? Too much talent in the passing game to not be utilized?
I thought the Dolphins offense would be really good. I drafted a ton of Tyreke Hill.

I thought too much was made of the Tua noodle arm. He doesn't have a cannon. But McDaniel is a smart guy. He was always going to figure out a way to get the 2 electric receivers the ball.

To Tua's Credit, the arm strength issue isn't as bad as the internet makes it out to be.
 
Russ Wilson definitely the biggest surprise.

Even with all the crazy stories about how weird he is--just wild to me to see all of his talent has evaporated.

And then he gives all these cringe worthy quotes, commercials, sound bites, etc.
 
I thought the Jets would be good but not this good.
It's amazing what Daboll has done with the Giants especially with the truck drivers moonlighting as WRs on that team.
did not see Geno Smith doing this well.
I did think the Bucs would suck under Bowles, and he hasn't disappointed.
 
Denver is by far the biggest surprise. Hell the afc west has been disappointing to say the least. Didn’t see hurts and the eagles being so dominant
 
I’ll echo Seattle and Geno. Rewind back to August and just about every fantasy pundit was hugely downgrading all Seahawks, including Metcalf and Lockett, with the assumption that they would be the worst NFL offense.
 
Mac Jones regression after a promising rookie year mostly due to BB totally mismanaging the transition from Josh McD to Matt Air Raid Patricia.. Pats offense had 24 passing and 24 rushing TDs in '21 but only 14/12 respectively thus far this year (miss you N'Keal). Pundits were calling this offense a mess in August and it seems they all were right.
 
There will always be situations that happen over the course of the season that everyone fails to predict and the pre-season consensus is way off on. But there seem to be some pretty wild outliers this year in terms of team offenses in the NFL compared to how we (and Vegas) predicted. These have had pretty big fantasy implications. Were any of the situations below predictable in any way? Were there signs we should have seen coming and can we look for these signs when evaluating teams next year?

1. Denver Broncos - This is the biggest surprise. With Russell Wilson coming to town, everyone thought they would drastically improve offensively. Instead they are at the bottom of the offensive ratings. What happened here? Is Russell Wilson washed up? I don't think the Javonte injury would cause that much of a dip in the offense.

2. Indianapolis Colts - Same kind of situation as the Broncos, but not as surprising. Still, nobody expected the Colts to be as bad as they were this year or JT would not have been the consensus 1, and Pittman would not have been such a pre-season favorite. While no one thought the Colts would be a top offense, the consensus thought they would be good enough to support some players at ADP. Everyone thought this team would be improved with Matt Ryan on board. From googling what may have gone wrong, I can't seem to pinpoint what went wrong. It seems to be a combination of bad coaching and an underperforming O-line. But I don't know how we could've spotted such a low floor in the pre-season.

3. Miami Dolphins - Few would've predicted the Dolphins to be a top 10 offense. I remember reading a statement that was analyzing Hill and Waddle. It said that there was no way the Dolphins could support two top 20 wide receivers which I agreed with at the time. In reality, Hill and Waddle are both in the top 10 (in my league's scoring), which is nuts. I seem to remember most people thinking the Dolphins would be more run heavy. What did we not see here? Too much talent in the passing game to not be utilized?

4. Seattle Seahawks - Same situation. An offense that performed way above expectations. I don't know how anyone could have predicted Geno Smith having the kind of success he is having.

Any other surprising team situations? What can we learn from these when going into next year's projections?
Denver was the biggest dumpster fire... spontaneous combustion caused by a new, yet over-rated QB and bad coaching. The debacle that was the Christmas Day game resulted in the shameful admission that "they weren't ready to play".

Indy has strange ownership and was already a bit of a "Jekyll and Hyde" team. Not a huge Ryan guy but still felt he could manage games with a strong running attack and a respectable defense.

QB play is the theme here and I'd give an honorable mention for poor play to Aaron Rodgers. I guess they've been OK as of late but we certainly saw some surprising struggles.

Common thread appears to be poor QB play, from older QBs. In each case, I imagine their respective teams regret their contracts.
 
Detroit is an unexpected pleasant surprise. And if one would have told you in August that their offense would be a juggernaut, but with Swift as a total afterthought and Jamaal Williams leading the league in TDs, you probably would have wanted that person committed.
 

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