2023 Buffalo Bills - What will this team look like? (5 Viewers)

[GroveDiesel]

A heart wrenching loss in the last seconds in the Division Round. A official arrival for Josh Allen establishing him as one of the true elite QBs. An off-season with Allen’s cap number leaping up and decisions to be made. A team that should be a continual contender.

It’s a new era for the Buffalo Bills and time for a new Buffalo Bills thread.

 

[GroveDiesel]

IMO, one of the biggest difference between Josh Allen 2020 and Josh Allen 2021 was his ability to hit the deep ball.

In fact, according to the Deep Ball Project, Allen was the most accurate deep ball passer in the league last year. Including being the best deep ball passer in tight window throws (and near the top in pretty much every category).

I’m not sure how consistent guys tend to be in this category, but if Allen can keep that up, he’ll continue to be a top 3 QB every single year.

 

[zamboni]

Can’t wait for Allen to take it out on the league after that gut wrenching playoff loss as he watched on the sidelines.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Sucks that we have to be division rivals, wish my team looked more like this one. 

But we do get nice beach weather

Not sure exactly what you all need to get over the hump but wish Buffalo would get their trophy before we get a lot better and can actually compete. Some of the most lopsided scores I can ever remember in recent years, this isn't even a good rivalry yet. 

Good luck, book your Miami hotel rooms now or whenever the schedule is released, it's a great ride thru Hard Rock and South Florida. 

Cheers from the 305! 

 

[The Duff Man]

I hope their focus is both sides of the line, then CB2.  I think their system is good enough they can get by with “a guy” at CB2, that’s all I think Wallace is.

On offense they were literally perfect against NE and incredible against KC. Shore up the line and have confidence with Davis at WR2. Hoping to keep McKenzie and OK with losing Beasley.  I wouldn’t do much else on O.

On defence I would be a fan of trading the #1 for legit pass rush improvement (if they can).  A lot of picks there and not much production, but still hopeful of Rousseau as that was his first year coming off skipping the year due to Covid.  The back end is solid, just need more pressure.

I think this is the last year before they have to make some tough “reload” decisions on guys like Edmunds and even Knox. 

 

[ConstruxBoy]

Let's Go Buffalo!

 

[IvanKaramazov]

On offense they were literally perfect against NE and incredible against KC. Shore up the line and have confidence with Davis at WR2. Hoping to keep McKenzie and OK with losing Beasley.  I wouldn’t do much else on O.

I expect the WR room to be really thinned out, between some combination of Sanders, Beasley, and McKenzie leaving.  Granted, WR is one of those positions where you're probably drafting a guy every year, but this is a really good draft to stock up for the future at that position.  

I agree with CB as still being a need.  

It seems silly to be upset over our P, but Haack was terrible and probably would have cost us a game if we let him punt more.  That's intolerable for a punter.  (Actually, I want to say that he arguably did cost us the Steelers game, but I'd have to go back and review that one to say for sure.) 

Edit: Not that anybody has any issues with Allen's contract, but the money that Rodgers just got makes this extension look that much better.  We all know that the QB market gets reset every couple of years anyway.

 

[GroveDiesel]

Beane is going to have to earn his money finding salary cap room to re-sign some guys and add some pieces as well.

Klein is already gone and I have a feeling Beasley will be too. As AK said, I think moving on from Haack needs to happen both in performance and salary. Morse and Williams both need to be restructured and have salaries reduced IMO.

Hopefully Hughes would be willing to come back on a 1 year fairly cheap deal. I think Harrison Phillips needs to be a priority resigning but I just don’t know what teams are going to offer him compared to what the Bills can pay. Star’s contract has been an albatross ever since it was signed and they are kinda stuck with him for one more year. Would be nice if they could reduce his salary somehow, maybe by turning it into 2 years at lower money. Bates should be a priority too as he was a huge upgrade at LG which was a serious problem up to that point. Feliciano and Ford should both be traded or let go.

There’s talk of bringing back Shaq Lawson which I could sign onto if the price is right. And lots of rumors of Gronk for 1 year at $9M. That’s a lot for an injury plagued guy who likely will miss half the season, but if he is there throughout the playoffs, he’s still a major difference maker and improves them in both the passing game and running game.

 

[GroveDiesel]

As an aside, the guy has been absolutely fantastic, he has had a great attitude, he has taught the younger guys a ton and worked as hard as possible, and Josh loves him…but what if the Bills had sat tight and drafted Jefferson instead? As it stands now, the Bills would be saving about $10M a year this year and next. And that’s before the Bills likely extend Diggs’s contract and give him $20M+ a year.

They’re inevitably going to give Diggs a big extension, but he’s already 29 years old. In 2 years I think I’d rather be paying Jefferson $22M a year than Diggs $22M a year.

Anyway, hard to criticize the trade because it was always a known stud versus an unknown, and for a team on the rise and with a QB hoping to take the next step it made sense at the time and was the right move. But we certainly can see the downside of that trade now too.

 

[GroveDiesel]

Obviously free agency will likely inform what Buffalo’s needs are going into the draft, but I can see these being the major draft needs (due to $$$ to add vets at those positions, need to get better, need to get younger, and/or looking ahead).

CB - No way Buffalo will be able to sign Wallace for what he will get and Jackson isn’t really good enough to be full time CB2 IMO. Plus Tre likely won’t be back to 100% until late in the season at best. So they need to spend a 1 or 2 on a CB. I did see one person advocate for Joe Haden at a cheap price and I could go for that for a stopgap as well and then address CB in the next draft.

WR - Sanders won’t be back. Beasley is likely gone. Diggs is 29. McKenzie is an UFA. They need to add a young WR, preferably a slot receiver with some shiftiness and speed to beat zones.

DE - Buffalo has taken 3 swings at this over the last 2 years and none of those guys has panned out so far. Rousseau showed flashes and may put it together, but then need more youth and more pass rush production out of the position.

LB - This is both short term and long term. The Bills played with 2 LBers much of the season using a nickel as their base defense. But they need a 3rd LBer and, honestly, they need a guy to groom to replace Edmunds after this year. They’re already paying Milano a bunch of money and Edmunds is going to end up getting a pretty penny as a former 1st round pick, and while he’s shown flashes, he’s just not worth what he is going to get. Not with his flaws and not with what Buffalo asks if their linebackers.

 

[raidergil]

Feliciano getting released

The move will save the Bills roughly $3.4 million on the salary cap, bringing themselves into the green with $2.5 million in space.

 

[The Duff Man]

A lot of what the Bills have done has been amazing but they do have some bad misses that are hurting their cap position right now. 

They are giving Star $9.2 on the cap and only save $1.5 by cutting him, which is not enough to bring in a decent replacement. 

Williams is getting $9.9 against the cap to play guard. 

These two are eating up almost 10% of the cap.  Waiting on the restructure for Morse and Diggs to get some decent money freed up.

Paying Matakevich $3M to play special teams is going to need to come to an end also.  

 

[IvanKaramazov]

McKenzie back -- Seems a little pricey but it's hard to argue with this one seeing as how Beasley is probably not coming back and McKenzie would be a reasonable replacement.  This assumes that we're not done addressing the WR position.  I don't want to go into camp with McKenzie penciled in as our starting slot WR.  Given the salary involved, I assume the Bills are looking for McKenzie to get more playing time on offense, but I'd like to see him stay in the gadget-player lane, not the every-down starter lane.  That would be consistent with his new contract.  Edit: McKenzie's deal is cheaper than I was originally led to believe.  Looks good.

Haack back -- I hope this is just keeping him around for a few months until we line up somebody better.  My understanding is that we can release him whenever we want with minimal dead money.  He had a roster bonus that went away.  I do not want him on our opening day roster.

Klein gone -- Great depth guy, but you can't pay everybody, he's on the wrong side of 30, and backup LB isn't our top priority right now.  We can replace a guy like Klein in FA and I'm sure we can draft a LB if we really need another one.

Williams gone -- Given the poor play of our IOL last year, I hate to see a competent G get cut.  But we were paying Williams OT money to pay OG, and I'm sure Beane and McDermott have lots of plans for this position.  It has to be a super-high priority in both FA and the draft.  Edit: Yep, there's Saffold.  No numbers yet, but that's arguably an upgrade over Williams even considering his age and state of decline.  I assume this is just a one or two year deal.

Morse restructured -- Excellent, and an obvious move that needed to get done.

 

[Steve Tasker]

Hearing good stuff about this Tim Settle guy from Washington.

 

[Ostro]

Haack back -- I hope this is just keeping him around for a few months until we line up somebody better.  My understanding is that we can release him whenever we want with minimal dead money.  He had a roster bonus that went away.  I do not want him on our opening day roster.

I'm 100% sure we'll pick up a punter in the draft.

 

[GroveDiesel]

Bills add yet another former Panther in DT DaQuan Jones, a big space eating run stuffer who is 30 years old.

Harrison Phillips moves on to the Vikings on a 3 year $19.5M deal. Kind of bummed the Bills weren’t able to keep him as he really came on last year and seems to be a super high character dude as well.

So Buffalo definitely focusing on the interior of both lines so far which is probably a really good and needed thing. Hopefully these moves pay off.

One thing I like so far is that it seems like some players may be giving them a bit of a discount because they are a contender and because they are becoming known as such a great organization to play for. As opposed to the Pats who are struggling to keep anyone around without Brady.

 

[GroveDiesel]

So far I’ve liked what Buffalo’s done though I’m surprised they let Wallace go when he got just 2 years/$8M from the Steelers.

 

[JetMaxx]

I’d love to see Breece Hall in Buffalo. 

 

[humpback]

Like McKissic, but really think they need to add a thumper who can grind out games late in the season/playoffs.

 

[travdogg]

Like McKissic, but really think they need to add a thumper who can grind out games late in the season/playoffs.

I have no idea why they don't use Zach Moss for that. He looked capable of it as a rookie. 

Looks like McKissic changed his mind, and is headed back to Washington. Truthfully, I think that's good for Buffalo, I didn't feel McKissic was anything special, and if they are making a RB move, need to aim higher. 

 

[IvanKaramazov]

Between Zach Ertz and McKissic, I really don't know you defend this offense.

 

[IvanKaramazov]

This reminds me of the heady days of the Da'Rick Rogers era.

 

[The Duff Man]

I didn’t understand the McKissic signing so I am good with him bailing. We have no cap and more important holes to fill than a pass catching RB. This offense is already lethal enough. 
Protect the QB and figure out how to put together a D to stop KC….others in the league have done it. Those are the top priorities. 

 

[IvanKaramazov]

I mean, if Washington offers you the same base salary but can promise that you get the month of February off, why would you choose Buffalo?

 

[GroveDiesel]

I mean, if Washington offers you the same base salary but can promise that you get the month of February off, why would you choose Buffalo?

And who wouldn’t want to go back to a team that waited until the very last minute to offer a matching contract? 

I do think he would have brought an element to the offense that isn’t there right now, but as I was saying to some friends of mine that are Browns fans, the off-season feels like way lower stakes now that it’s clear Josh Allen is for real and that Beane and company have shown that they can make wise lower cost moves that help continually build the team.

So while 4 years ago this would have felt crushing and fed the narrative of “nobody wants to play in Buffalo”, now I’m just kinda like

 

[humpback]

I have no idea why they don't use Zach Moss for that. He looked capable of it as a rookie. 

Looks like McKissic changed his mind, and is headed back to Washington. Truthfully, I think that's good for Buffalo, I didn't feel McKissic was anything special, and if they are making a RB move, need to aim higher. 

I don't really get it either, seems to be a philosophical thing. I don't think Moss is very good, but IMO there is a clear need for a guy to move the chains and milk the clock.

 

[humpback]

I didn’t understand the McKissic signing so I am good with him bailing. We have no cap and more important holes to fill than a pass catching RB. This offense is already lethal enough. 
Protect the QB and figure out how to put together a D to stop KC….others in the league have done it. Those are the top priorities. 

An effective running game helps accomplish all of this. My preference would be a more traditional downhill runner, but short passes to RBs can achieve some of the same results so the (temporary) signing made sense to me.

 

[JoeSteeler]

So far I’ve liked what Buffalo’s done though I’m surprised they let Wallace go when he got just 2 years/$8M from the Steelers.

I was surprised as well but I don’t know a lot about him. Was he considered a good player? Is Dane Jackson good enough to step into the starting lineup or do the Bills add a CB to start?

 

 

[Steve Tasker]

I was surprised as well but I don’t know a lot about him. Was he considered a good player? Is Dane Jackson good enough to step into the starting lineup or do the Bills add a CB to start?

 

He's a fine player and I thought he was a bit underrated by many Bills fans because he played opposite one of the league's best in Tre White.  He's an average CB2 in the NFL, in my estimation.  I don't think anyone's particularly upset that he's leaving, though he was certainly an adequate player.  Dane Jackson is a solid if unspectacular player in a similar mold; they had battled for the open starting job last year and Wallace won, though Jackson was not out of place when he played after White's injury.  I'd say Jackson is a minor downgrade from Wallace, but the Bills were going to be looking to address CB2 in either free agency or the draft either way.

 

[GroveDiesel]

He's a fine player and I thought he was a bit underrated by many Bills fans because he played opposite one of the league's best in Tre White.  He's an average CB2 in the NFL, in my estimation.  I don't think anyone's particularly upset that he's leaving, though he was certainly an adequate player.  Dane Jackson is a solid if unspectacular player in a similar mold; they had battled for the open starting job last year and Wallace won, though Jackson was not out of place when he played after White's injury.  I'd say Jackson is a minor downgrade from Wallace, but the Bills were going to be looking to address CB2 in either free agency or the draft either way.

This seems pretty accurate to me. Though with the rather poor play of #2 CBs in general, I would say Wallace was an above average #2 CB. He did fine for the most part sliding into the #1 CB role last year after White’s injury. Jackson was definitely a downgrade and prone to getting caught looking into the backfield or getting beat on double moves. The Bills must have a lot of confidence in Jackson though.

 

[Athletic Supporter]

Von Miller to the Bills

https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter/status/1504227125175455745?s=20&t=AhpNwnLUoOPbReM2io06dg

 

[Athletic Supporter]

OJ Howard too

https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter/status/1504228568020226049?s=20&t=AhpNwnLUoOPbReM2io06dg

 

[SayWhat?]

And OJ Howard.  

 

[GroveDiesel]

Definitely can’t wait to see the actual details of the Von Miller contract because 6 years $120M at 32 years old and their cap situation seems ludacris.

With that being said, adding Von Miller and Howard to this team is 💰

Tom Brady has to be elated seeing his path to the Super Bowl get easier and easier this off-season. 

 

[Wigglytuff's Gruff]

Definitely can’t wait to see the actual details of the Von Miller contract because 6 years $120M at 32 years old and their cap situation seems ludacris.

33 in a week. 

 

[SoBeDad]

Buffalo and LAC should be the favorites in the AFC. It's gonna be tough for them young QBs in the AFC east. Did the Bills have a net losses at any position? I see them getting an impact WR or RB early in the draft.

 

[IvanKaramazov]

There ain't no way that's actually a 6 year contract.  It's going to be more like 2-3 years.  At least, that's what I'm assuming.  6/$120 doesn't make any sense, but a backloaded deal with outs makes a ton of sense.

 

[IvanKaramazov]

Buffalo and LAC should be the favorites in the AFC. It's gonna be tough for them young QBs in the AFC east. Did the Bills have a net losses at any position? I see them getting an impact WR or RB early in the draft.

Not really.

We lost our CB2, who was arguably an average starter although honestly we had been trying unsuccessfully to replace him for years.  Wallace just refused to be beaten out, and he played pretty well all things considered.  We'll absolutely have to address this position early in the draft given where our cap must be now.

We're not as deep at IOL as we were before, but we might have better starters than last year.  I certainly wouldn't call it a net loss -- we'll presumably sign another depth guy, and also draft there.

We lost a pretty good depth LB.  Eminently replaceable.  

We're probably losing both Sanders and Beasley, but this is a great draft for WRs, and those two are replaceable.  

The Von Miller signing completely overwhelms any losses we have have suffered at other positions.  We don't need him to play every down, and he elevates our line from pretty good to outstanding.  

 

[Grigs Allmoon]

Definitely can’t wait to see the actual details of the Von Miller contract because 6 years $120M at 32 years old and their cap situation seems ludacris.

Yeah, that seems like a terrible deal. I'm really not a fan of spending big money at pass-rush right now. They need help at DT more than DE. 

 

[IvanKaramazov]

Yeah, that seems like a terrible deal. I'm really not a fan of spending big money at pass-rush right now. They need help at DT more than DE. 

Really?  I think it's pretty clearly the other way around.  With Oliver, Star, Settle, and DaQuan Jones, how many more DTs do we need?

 

[Grigs Allmoon]

I don't know what they paid OJ Howard, but I assume between that and the Von deal we are done with FA, and probably have to make more moves just to afford their drafted players.

 

[Grigs Allmoon]

Really?  I think it's pretty clearly the other way around.  With Oliver, Star, Settle, and DaQuan Jones, how many more DTs do we need?

Yeah, Settle could be a good addition, but are you counting on Star for anything? Oliver has been playing well, but not exactly a big time run stuffer.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I don't know what they paid OJ Howard, but I assume between that and the Von deal we are done with FA, and probably have to make more moves just to afford their drafted players.

Won’t they need to replace Trubisky behind Allen? 

 

[SoBeDad]

Won’t they need to replace Trubisky behind Allen? 

If Allen goes down, they're in trouble. For a few games, Dalton or Brissett could hold the fort. Even Flacco. They should all be cheap.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

 Von Miller! 

 

[Stoneworker]

Von Miller has played the edge in a 3-4 scheme his entire NFL career. Aren't the Bills a 4-3 under DC Frazier?

I'm not seeing the fit here. Obviously he's Von but still a huge difference among Edge, WLB and hand-in-the-ground DE.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

There ain't no way that's actually a 6 year contract.  It's going to be more like 2-3 years.  At least, that's what I'm assuming.  6/$120 doesn't make any sense, but a backloaded deal with outs makes a ton of sense.

$51M guaranteed...even if that's crammed into 2-3 years, that's a lot of money 

Von Miller! 

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Won’t they need to replace Trubisky behind Allen? 

Fitzpatrick is walking around, he'd be perfect brought back to hold a clipboard and keep Allen company on the bench. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

If Allen goes down, they're in trouble. For a few games, Dalton or Brissett could hold the fort. Even Flacco. They should all be cheap.

Flacco re-signed with the jets. 

 

[GroveDiesel]

Von Miller has played the edge in a 3-4 scheme his entire NFL career. Aren't the Bills a 4-3 under DC Frazier?

I'm not seeing the fit here. Obviously he's Von but still a huge difference among Edge, WLB and hand-in-the-ground DE.

Buffalo’s base defense is a nickel defense. Buffalo used Lorenzo Alexander in a hybrid LB/DE role quite a bit. I could see something similar for Miller. Buffalo has been fairly flexible and versatile with how and where they play most of their front 4. I don’t think they’ll have a problem finding a fit.

It’s not like they’ll use him every down anyway. I would imagine 60% of snaps maybe. Buffalo likes to rotate D-linemen to keep them fresh (with arguably not that great of results, but that’s another story).