A lot of smoke on Twitter today about FSU pulling the lever and leaving the ACC. Local reporters with a lot of eyes

emojis etc. As always I doubt anything happens but it’s out there.
Them and Clemson will be leaving. Just a matter of time.
Per the ACC Grant of Rights, the ACC has all media rights for all sports for current full ACC members until 2035. Are you assuming they defeat the ACC Grant of Rights in court? Or are you assuming the ACC negotiates a buyout?
If the latter, why would the ACC do that? If they just let Clemson and FSU walk with no repercussions, then (a) the conference is obviously weakened by losing two strong football programs and (b) it sets the stage for any other members to walk whenever they want to.
I grant you, ACC members could definitely seriously consider leaving in the early 2030s... but that's a long time from now.
My gut tells me threats of lawsuits and settled payment terms. Feels like the norm these days
I don't see why the ACC would be motivated to support negotiating a settlement. Any settlement basically means the end of the ACC. I think they will force any members who want to leave to win in court.
By the way, I wrote 2035, but it's actually 2036. And there is a $120M exit fee required on top of whatever comes of the GOR in court or negotiations.
Come to think of it, the ACC might be okay with the idea of getting paid $240M by FSU and Clemson and then getting rights to all of their home game media broadcasts, i.e., getting rights to broadcast SEC and/or B1G games, for 13 years.
This would be the scenario - negotiation in payments, media revenue. As I posted previously, the exit fee would be about $200m based upon the revenue from the last tax submissions by the school - which is assuming FSU leaves the ACC in 2025 (announcing in 2024). Whichever conference FSU moves to (B1G or SEC), said conference would put up a loan - especially now with the media broadcasting group as backing (FOX and ESPN accordingly). With the media rights alone, FSU would see a minimum of $200m in new revenue over the first 5 years in the B1G conference. This doesn't include new money coming from the expansion of the CFP, to which being a member of the B1G or SEC would boost earnings for FSU on a yearly basis. As mentioned in the article I posted, "the GOR value will end up being a network based resolution and games can be moved around to make everyone whole - just as FOX and ESPN did with the exit of OU and UT from the Big 12." Example provided:
Fiscal Year | ACC Est Payout | B1G Est Payout | FSU Estimated Difference |
FY 2024-25 | 39.6 M | 77.0 M | 37.4 M + New CFP $$ |
FY 2025-26 | 54.3 M | 96.0 M | 41.7 M + New CFP $$ |
FY 2026-27 | 56.6 M | 98.9 M | 42.3 M + New CFP $$ |
FY 2027-28 | 59.0 M | 101.9 M | 42.9 M + New CFP $$ |
FY 2028-29 | 61.5 M | 104.9 M | 43.4 M + New CFP $$ |
Estimated 5 yr Difference = 207.7 M + New CFP $$
Next 5 years (minimum, if flat) = 217.0 M + New CFP $$
First 10 years (minimum, if flat) = 424.7 M + New CFP $$
So essentially, with an established revenue stream from the conference and media backing FSU, they will be in a position to negotiate any type of buyout ($$ plus tv/media rights for games) needed to cover exit clause and GOR. Just because no one has left ACC doesn't mean it's not possible. As stated previously, threats of lawsuits and settled payout terms are the norm nowadays. The conference didn't back FSU in the CFP, even with representation on the committee. I think FSU has a solid argument to leave, and the money will be there for them wherever they choose to go (B1G or SEC). I don't think that can be ignored and just dismissed. The idea of a P2 set up is coming with the B1G and SEC taking control. It's not a matter of if, but when.