Lamar is winning because of his defense and his stats aren't that great. The same argument kept Brady out of mvp.
hurts was the clear number one and still has an 11-3 record but they lost 3 in a row. His stats are arguably the best - 35 total touchdowns leads the NFL.
Purdy is surrounded by so much talent that people questioned whether it was him or them. He was starting to get credit then had the 4 turnover game vs Baltimore
dak looked to be roaring back into the race after beating hurts and the eagles then they lost back to back games against Miami and Buffalo
tyreek looked like he had a chance to break 2000 yards but he'd need a gimmick like that to win mvp over a quarterback.
McCaffrey deserves a ton of credit for how he's played but he suffersfrom the so much talent argument had Purdy does
With so many contenders having late season swoons, I don't think the voters have cast a single early ballot among them. They will wait and see.
One name i haven't seen much is Goff. They're tied for first in the nfc. They play Dallas this week with a chance to move into first. They finish with the commanders which should be an easy win and a chance to pad his stats.
He's third in passing yards with 3984. First is tua with 4200, second is Brock with 4050. He only has 10 interceptions, better than Purdy (11) but worse than dak (7). He's tied for third in passing touchdowns with 27. Dak has 30, Purdy has 29. Allen and Jordan love also have 27 and mahomes 26. Hurts has 20 but it's the 15 rushing touchdowns that put him up top.
If Goff wins this week it would be a signature late season win for a team that announced its presence by beating the chiefs on the NFL opener and would be going into the playoffs on a 4 game win streak.
The 49ers finish the season vs the red hot Rams and division games can easily go sideways.
Meanwhile if the Ravens lose to the dolphins this week or the steelers next week, they'd be tied with the lions for record.
Goff is currently +15000 on fanduel sports book. It's basically a 4 game parlay where you get 150x your money if the lions beat the cowboys and commanders, the Rams beat the 49ers and the dolphins beat the Ravens. I Might put one unit on Goff and 3 on hurts and bet the money lines on the Ravens beating the dolphins and the cowboys beating the lions as a hedge. If they both lose then the 49ers Rams game could give Purdy or McCaffrey the lead so I'd consider hedging that too I guess.
But 150x odds... that's got to be worth a look right? And 40x for hurts?
Josh Allen leads the nfl in total touchdowns with 40, not hurts with 35.
Hurts also has 11 tush push touchdowns, I think that definitely should play a factor.
To Lamar, he's not top 5 in any advanced metrics I've seen. Epa qbr etc
His candidacy is based on his team's record which is silly.