Rookie Draft Picks Don't Hit as Much as You Think They Do...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ujr7aucNh2A - start at 10:40. That's where they actually start about trading picks,
hit rates, etc. etc.
Mike Tagliere ran a series on this over at Fantasy Pros in the year 2020.
I can’t begin to tell you how many times I’ve tried to make a trade in a dynasty league that involved a draft pick where I’ve heard the phrase, “I’m giving you a first-round draft pick. You need to be … read more »
www.fantasypros.com
I'm in a 10-team league.
I'm usually in the finals so my natural pick is later.
Most of the guys in my league were new to dynasty when we started. I knew that I needed to acquire value...not just got with Right Now.
My players.... were limited to my ROSTER SIZE but I could trade for as many DRAFT PICKS in an unlimited amount.
I pick up a free WW player and sell them. Like... I just sold Tank Bigsby for 2nd rounder 2025. That is likely to be a top 15 pick.
I can NOW trade my 17-20 pick for better value. Likely bundled with a player that is aging out of my squad.
As much as Draft Picks DON"T work out and HIT RATES suck. The data is missing the point. Every draft pick is a lotter ticket.
Last year I had 6 draft picks. 2x 1st. 1x 2nd 3x 3rd. When I have more picks. I'm LESS worried about NEEDING that pick to pan out. Of course I want them ALL to pan out. But they don't.
After All in 2019 I drafted #15 overall Hakeem Butler, #21 Irv Smith JR, and #25 Darwin Thompson. Whoops. BUT that didn't stop me from making the finals 1 year ahead of schedule. I went on to win it all 2 years in a row and missed a 3pt by 4pts when Hamlin died on the field.
Having MORE picks also allows me to influence the draft somewhat. I can take a player early or push talent down if I'm picking again soon based on other team needs.
In 2018...we all autodrafted.
Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen and Baker Mayfield were on the WW at the start of the season.
2019:
11 of 30 players "hit). 3 Rd 1. 4 rd 2, 4 in Rd 3.
Many owners were still learning and in redraft mode and many were hungover.
Players of Note drafted 2nd rd or later: Dmontgomery, MAndrews, DKMetcalf, TJHOckenson, AJBrown, Deebo,
2020.
7of10 1st hit. 4 of 10 2nd rnd hit, 5 of 20 3rd and 4th rounders. 16 total players hit.
Players of NOTE drafted 2nd rd or later: BAyiuk, JJefferson, THiggins, JHurts, JLove, Pittman JR,
2021:
15 of top 30 players hit:
1st = 6
2nd = 5
3rd = 4.
Players drafted 2nd round or later: Devonta Smith, Javonte Williams, Etienne, Rhomandre, AmonRa StBrown, Freiermuth,
2022
17 of the top 36 picks HIT.
1st = 6
2nd =5
3rd = 3
4th = 3
Noteable 2nd RD or later player: GPickens, BRobinson JR, Garrett Wilson, Trey McBride, CWatson, Nico Collins, Jameson WIlliams, RDoubs, RWhite,
2023
18 of top 30 players worked out.
1st 8 of top 10
2nd 5 of 10
3rd 5 of 10
notables: 2nd round or later: Zay Flowers, Tyjae Spears, Achane, Baker Mayfield, SLaPorta #20 overall, TMcbride again, Rashee Rice, Jayden Reed, to name a few
FAs I picked up week 1 Puka Nacua, Tank Dell.
2024
Too early to say but I think this was a loaded draft and many will pan out.
After 25 pick people started drafting IDPs and DEFs.
This is a 2QB 3W, 2RB, 1TE, 1TE/WR, 1WR/RB 1WR/RB/TE league. with 30 roster spots PPR all TDs 6pts.
Nix, Maye in the 2nd Ladd McConkey, Brian Thomas JR going 17, 18.
Knowing picks don't always PAN OUT.... I was able to acquire:
AJBrown, Justin Jefferson, waivers when someone dropped them.
Dropping Evan Hull and Zach Evans and John Metchie III last year didn't impact my team. Especially considering who I picked up.
Trading: for extra picks has totally worked out.
IF I don't have the Roster Space for my extra Picks. I'll sell them in the future for another pick. Even If 'lose some value' on it, it's fine. I'm deferring the exchange.
Since 2018: Noteable players you'd have a chance of drafting in the 2nd round or later. COULD YOU WIN WITH These options?
QBs Josh Allen Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Jordan Love, Baker Mayfield, Bo Nix, Drake Maye
WRs Justin Jefferson, AJBrown, Puka Nacua, AmonRaSt Brown, DK Metcalf, Deebo Samuel, BAyiuk, Tee Higgins, MPittmanJr, Devonta Smith, GPickens, Garrett Wilson, Nico Collins, Chr.Watson, RDdoubs, Zay Flowers. Rashee Rice, JMingo, LMcCaffery, Ladd McConkey, Brian Thomas Jr, Keon Coleman, Khalil Shakir, Jameson Williams, Ja'Lynn Polk, Xavier Legette, Jermaine Burton, Ricky Pearsall,
RBs: David Montgomery, Travis Etienne, Chuba Hubbard, Brian Robinson Jr, Rhamondre Stevenson, Javonte Williams, ZMoss, AJ Dillon, AGibson, Miles Sanders, Rachaad White, T Allgeier, Tyjae Spears, Devon Achane, Trey Benson, Marshawn Lloyd, Blake Corum, Ray Davis, Jordan Mason, Jaylen Wright,
TE: Trey McBride, Sam LaPorta, Njoku, Fant, Freiermuth, Trey McBride Again!, Isaiah Likely, JaTavion Sanders, Ben Sinnott, Erick All Jr, Theo Johnson,
According to Dynasty Trade Value Charts:
QB1,4, 7, 8, 9.... and many more
RB 4, 5, 12, 16, 19, 20, 21,22, 23, 24, 27, 34....
WR, 1, 5,6,8,9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 15, 18, 20, 22, 24, 27, 28, 30, 31, 33, 35, 39, 42, 44, 47, 49, 51. ...
TE: 2, 3, 5, 10, 12, 13, 15, 16, 19. ...
I think you would put together a competitive team.
This is just my league. Years 1 and 2 people got lucky. I think many have learned from some mistakes. QBs are not typically going in the later rounds. BUT in many situations you had a player that was likely injured at the combine that started out slow and came on quickly . A manager dropped them before they 'went off" The whole reason I sold Tank Bigsby was because I felt like I could sell on the higher end.
Notice in this rankings. a Few RBs are in top 5, and top 10. But bigger cluster 20-25. A cluster in top 20 +/-.
So.... I guess my point is.... HIT RATE stats are just stats. Yeah... Don't draft Zach Wilson, Des Ridder Kenny Pickett, in the 1st round. QBs are important but stakes are High... BUT they're not as HIGH if you can acquire an additional pick. I feel like if I can get 5 picks each year.... and hit on 3 out of 5 of them.... I've done well.
2019 I draft 0-3. picks 15, 21, 26. AND grabbed AJ Brown off WW. 0% rating for year and overall.
2020 drafted 3 for 3. #2, #9, #12. and Grabbed JJefferson off WW. and MPittmanJr. 100% year 50% overall
2021 drafted 3 of 5. I forget key moves. 9, 10, 11, 13, 19, 60% draft 72% overall draft rating.
2022. 5 of 6 or 4 of 6.... I got a good year out of D Pierce. Failed on Albert Okweubengum. #2, #4, #10, #13, #14, #16. winners London, Olave, Pierce, BrRobinsonJr, GWilson, 66% worst case on the year and 70.5% overall draft success.
2023 2 of 4 #9, #10, #13, #19. 50% on the year. 14/22 draft picks overall. 63.6% rating
2024. 6 of 6 #7, #8, #17, 21, #25, #27. 100% so far. (Aiden Hutchinson got hurt but I'm keeping him). IDP DL is new position this year. 100% year. and 71.4% overall.
Most drafts have 15 top prospects. and 20-30 players you could draft. I drafted Michael Carter #19 overall in 2021... but I did't keep him. I traded him for a 3rd rounder after 1 year to the Jets fan in my league. He lost on that trade. I Got a starting RB for 1 season and won a title. I later traded BRobinson Jr for 3rd to same owner. He won that one. I also traded him GWilson for KPitts... but I traded Pitts and DWatson for Dak Prescott different owner.
I trade for Trey Lance... Kerryon Johnson, whoops. I'm not stellar. I'm expecting players to miss. But I keep value in future on my roster in future draft picks and PLAYERS i'm trying to upgrade. If I have a non-playoff team's 2nd rounder... I can now trade away my 2nd or 3rd . I can reach for a player I like when I have 4 of the next 7 picks. I have picked up Evan Engram and traded him 2x for draft picks. I traded Baker Mayfield for 2x 2nds. THEN....they guy eventually dropped him. I picked him up and traded him for a 3rd.
Acquire Value in the volatility. I focus on the younger players who have upside. I will sell them at a discount. I will sell them as a Tier 2 or Tier 3.... for whatever price I can get BECAUSE I want to cashout on the player's increase in value.... because it's a stepping stone to acquire bigger better players. Got Forbid I rely on Ty Chandler for a title. .... I keep most of my value in WRs bc there's more them and I can start more of them w/o leaving as many points on the bench. Honestly... in 2023. I would have taken Bryce Young over CJ Stroud based on my research. (I was drafting #9 and got Kincaid). I woud've been wrong. But I'm acquiring value so I can target elite QBs and pay a premium for top players. Right now I'm targeting Malik Nabers. I'd probably pay 2x 1st for him 2025, 2026 and a player. I don't need him. his situation is still Buy Low-ish with QB. But With Jefferson, AJBrown, PUka, Olave, London, Ladd, TDell, GOdwin, XLegette. Nabers would be WR2 for longer term. Until Godwin got hurt my WR8 was better than many people's WR1. QB I'd target JAllen or PenixJR. Not sure sure on everyone.
