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2025 Team Defense & Defense by Committee Thread (5 Viewers)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
ZADO
Footballguy
Arizona also activated defensive lineman Zach Allen from the COVID list. Both players have been out for the past two games. Jones has five sacks, all of which came in Week 1, and 14 QB hits on the year. Allen has one sack and a pair of TFLs. Both players started every game before landing on the COVID list.jobarules said:
sho nuff
Footballguy
Well...I may be holding a grudge as they screwed me over last week.kyoun1e said:
But my issue with SF personally aside...my other issue is they just have not been doing the things to make a good FF defense. They are not getting sacks, not forcing turnovers, and they give up points.
Yeah...against Chicago should be a solid opportunity to get back to something. But I won't be the one trusting them.
A lot of 49er defensive players on injury report. Anybody know if they are at danger of missing the game and if they are important to the defense?
Did not practice-LB Al-Shaair (concussion), DL Bosa (resting player), DL Ford (concussion), DL Hurst (calf), DT Kinlaw (knee), S Tartt (knee), T Williams (ankle, elbow) Limited-DL Ebukam (ankle), LB Harris (thumb), QB Lance (knee), WR Samuel (calf)
Did not practice-LB Al-Shaair (concussion), DL Bosa (resting player), DL Ford (concussion), DL Hurst (calf), DT Kinlaw (knee), S Tartt (knee), T Williams (ankle, elbow) Limited-DL Ebukam (ankle), LB Harris (thumb), QB Lance (knee), WR Samuel (calf)
Yeah this smells like a trap. SF is universally top 5 rated by experts this week, but to date they've shown that they're a pretty mediocre D.
However, CHI is probably worse than a mediocre offense.
Having a hard time envisioning CHI put up say...24 points.
Still I may go with Pittsburgh. If there's negligible difference between PIT and SF, I can free up a roster spot to speculate on a M. Mack or whoever.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
For those looking to just pick & stick, the following are past their bye weeks:
BUF DAL MIN NOS LAC PIT SFO JAC NYJ ATL
BUF DAL MIN NOS LAC PIT SFO JAC NYJ ATL
Drake Hater
Footballguy
Choosing b/w SF, Seattle & Pitt I'm leaning SF.
Pitt D are road dogs against Cleveland. That zone blocking scheme the Browns run could be trouble. Rainy day on tap too.
Pitt and Seattle have higher O/U's.
Not super confident in any of these defenses but Chicago's offense looks terrible and SF at least has a chance to capitalize on that.
Pitt D are road dogs against Cleveland. That zone blocking scheme the Browns run could be trouble. Rainy day on tap too.
Pitt and Seattle have higher O/U's.
Not super confident in any of these defenses but Chicago's offense looks terrible and SF at least has a chance to capitalize on that.
Have SF and PIT as well. Leaning SF.
SEA ran all over the PIT run D prior to the bye. CLE a significantly better rushing D with or without Baker. That game has the feel of conservative, slow moving game plan. Could be low scoring but don't see turnovers.
SF D is not that great, but Chicago seems to have all kinds of issues on offense. Can't envision a J. Fields breakout...yet.
Well, well, well...if Dak is out I'd be curious how much the MN D leaps in the rankings.
Would be a tough play unless Dak is ruled out prior to Sundays games.
May pick up just to block my opponent (who currently has DAL D starting...which can't be as great of a play now if Dak out).
Would be a tough play unless Dak is ruled out prior to Sundays games.
May pick up just to block my opponent (who currently has DAL D starting...which can't be as great of a play now if Dak out).
I had the same two.
I had to drop one for a replacement for Dak. I chose to drop SF. I feel like they were close enough and with Pits upcoming schedule that won the tiebreaker. Also, SF hasnt really done much and had a bunch of DLineman on their injury report yesterday so this could be a trap game. I dont see SF jumping out to a huge lead vs CHI like TB did.
I dunno. I dont see Pitt crushing it either so not saying Im confident I made the right choice. At 3-4 every win counts for my team but I am not convinced SF is THAT MUCH better than Pit this week. In most rankings they are neck and neck.
Yup. It's a tough choice.
I guess I have more confidence in the CHI offense screwing up vs. the CLE offense.
I wouldn't mind dropping SF either to attend to other needs.
themeistersinger
Footballguy
Looking ahead to Week 9. My choices are below. I change my mind every time I look at these.
Steelers home vs Bears, week 10 home vs Lions
Cowboys home vs Broncos, week 10 home vs Falcons
Bengals home vs Browns, week 10 Bye
Cardinals at 49ers, week 10 home vs Panthers
Steelers home vs Bears, week 10 home vs Lions
Cowboys home vs Broncos, week 10 home vs Falcons
Bengals home vs Browns, week 10 Bye
Cardinals at 49ers, week 10 home vs Panthers
Johnny Utah #9
Footballguy
sho nuff
Footballguy
Going forward…schedule doesn’t look great…but GB is intriguing. They are getting takeaways and putting pressure on the QB. And that without Jaire Alexander and Za’Darius Smith. Still unsure when either may be back. But a recent tweet by Smith makes it look like he is planning on returning.
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Drake Hater
Footballguy
I'm wavering on SF this week after seeing 3 confirmed DL starters out. Bears could at least wear them out on the ground...
Still dont like the Steelers though with Mayfield and Chubb coming back this week. Chubb is a mudder and may have a helluva game.
Thinking about either Seattle or Philly now. Philly isn't great but the Lions offense is bad...
Still dont like the Steelers though with Mayfield and Chubb coming back this week. Chubb is a mudder and may have a helluva game.
Thinking about either Seattle or Philly now. Philly isn't great but the Lions offense is bad...
What SF linemen are out?
Starting SF over PIT right now. Feel like CLE will play a solid, slow paced, mistake free game minimizing mistakes. Feels like a 20-17 game where PIT gets like 6 points.
At least one mistake by Fields could mean a pick 6. And DL hurt or not, if Bosa is in there he could be in Fields face.
VikingFrog
Footballguy
I managed to grab Cinci as they were dropped in the second round of waivers for Indy. Guess the guy would rather have long term strength for the coming weeks.
So I’m ready to be severely disappointed by a number one ranked defense in a smash spot yet again.
But the Jets are absolutely crippled and starting the guy who wrote School of Rock.
So I’m ready to be severely disappointed by a number one ranked defense in a smash spot yet again.
But the Jets are absolutely crippled and starting the guy who wrote School of Rock.
They have tons of injuries. More I think of it, more I think bears are gonna beat them and this is a trap game.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.windycitygridiron.com/platform/amp/2021/10/29/22752741/bears-vs-49ers-injury-report-khalil-mack-ruled-out-5-questionable-for-chicago-akiem-hicks-jesper
Insein
Footballguy
Drake Hater
Footballguy
Hurst, Kinlaw and Ford on the DL. Also LB Al-Shaair. OLB Ebukam is Q. Only Tartt is out in the 2ndary.
Nagy is a terrible HC but any idiot that looks at that should see the opening for a ground attack.
Drake Hater
Footballguy
Several Bears O lineman also returning or moving off IR to play this game. Like Admiral Ackbar said...
Birdie048
Footballguy
I was looking at SOS for ROY and Cinn is listed as a good pick up. I am trying to find a good Committee match, with Carolina & Dallas currently on roster... do not want to hold 3. The struggle is 1 tool says Cinn Top 6 ROY and Carolina Top 10, but Dallas in the "teens"... another tool says Cinn & Dallas Top 10 but Car a terrible match up except when vs ATL (bottom 10). I just don't know if Gilmore will make that much of a difference yet.
Mia, Cinn & Buff are listed as the Top 3 to play, but the rest is a complete crap-shoot!
Mia, Cinn & Buff are listed as the Top 3 to play, but the rest is a complete crap-shoot!
VikingFrog
Footballguy
Just peering at Cinci’s schedule ahead, it doesn’t look too tasty. But I’d also be intrigued by someone they might pair well with. They held Baltimore down.
I updated my list. Didn't really analyze too deeply but this is what I did.
Looked at the top 16 teams (+ steelers as they were 16th in avg fp) since I don't ever want to start a bottom half defense vs anything but a bottom tier offense. Goal is not to weekly stream but to pick best starter Ds for ROS.
Separated list into top 10 worst offenses, middle 10 neutral offensive matchups, and top 12 best offenses.
Then I counted the amount of bad (vs top 10), neutral (middle 10), and good (worst 10) matchups.
If you select a top 6-8 DST then I feel comfortable starting them in neutral matchups so I added a neutral+ (neutral matchup or better column).
Also indicated % owned since waiver wire choices vary per league. Bills/Rams/Buccs probably not on anyones waiver but they become must pickup anytime they are dropped.
Best WW DSTs with most Neutral+ Matchups (Rank - Team - (Matchup #))
6 - Cowboys (7)
5 - Saints (6)
8 - Panthers (6)
Best WW DSTs with most Good Matchups (Rank - Team - (Matchup #))
5 - Saints (4)
8 - Panthers (4)
6 - Colts (4)
Best WW DSTs with best playoff schedule (15/16/17)
5 - Saints (1 bad, 2 good)
6 - Cowboys (2 neutral, 1 bad)
14 - Bengals (1 good, 1 bad, 1 neutral)
17 - Steelers (2 neutral, 1 bad)
10 - Bears (1 bad, 2 neutral)
It's important to contextualize these games as some teams are on the upward trend and others are on downward trend. Plus injuries play a huge factor. But this is a good starting point for diving deeper and that's for another post. Link to google sheet.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ej_iq-jq1skCVqr10FKBpKZHi1sgvLmr/edit?usp=sharing&ouid=115417934671390415427&rtpof=true&sd=true
Worst Offenses
NYJ
CHI
HOU
JAX
NE
CAR
ATL
MIA
DET
DEN
Middle Offenses
KC
NYG
SF
PIT
WSH
PHI
CIN
SEA
NO
TEN
Best Offenses
GB
BAL
IND
CLE
MIN
LV
ARI
LAC
LAR
BUF
DAL
TB
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Okay, this one took a bit of time but I took this to another level of data analysis. A lot of you guys keep wondering if teams like Broncos / Panthers are deserving of their current ranking or if its a result of playing poor offenses. My updates to the spreadsheet should help with that analysis.
TLDR; spreadsheet update is here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ej_iq-jq1skCVqr10FKBpKZHi1sgvLmr/edit?usp=sharing&ouid=115417934671390415427&rtpof=true&sd=true
ALL FP / RANKINGS ARE USING ESPN STANDARD DST SCORING
PAST PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS
I added a table with points scored and you can see how many weeks they had elite, good, neutral, or bad results for the first 7 weeks. Teams that had elite games are what you are really chasing here so teams like steelers who only had 1 elite game may not be great plays for future weeks even with good matchups.
On the flip side, seeing the weeks where teams scored poorly can help you understand if they had bad weeks because they underperformed or they just faced tougher offenses. Scores used to separate elite/good/neutral/bad are below. These are not the averages for that week but the season long averages based on DST ranking.
Elite Top 3 Scoring Avg - 8.2
Top 10 Scoring Avg - 5.9
Top 16 Scoring Avg - 4.7
Bottom - 0
Teams with the most elite games:
Bills - 4
Cardinals - 4
Packers - 4
Colts - 4
Panthers - 4
PREDICTABILITY SCORE
This is the meat and potatoes of the data analysis. It's one where I think I'll have to adjust but its a start... There's a lot of subjectivity in this rating but in general this is what I did.
Predictability Rating - Teams are given either +1, 0, -1 based on who they played and how well they scored.
Exceeds Expectations +1
Meets Expectations 0
Below Expectations-1
Scoring Expectations Used for Above Rating
Against Top 12, I expect them to score on the bottom half or less than 4.7 points that week.
Against Middle 10 - Because they are top 16 teams, I expect them to score the top 16 average: 4.7
Bottom 10 - I expect them to have a top 10 score against these teams: 5.9
Example: A team that does well against a top 12 team will get a +1. A team that fails to notch a top 10 scoring week against a bottom 10 team will get a -1.
Why? I wanted to backproof our future scheduling and see whether or not applying the always SIT versus top 10 offenses and starting against bottom 10 offenses will yield expected results. If so, then I would expect predictability rating to be 0 or greater. This is because I am only using the top 16 defenses. If I used the bottom 16 defenses, I'd expect wildly unpredictable results where bottom DSTs have bad games against bad offenses and have negative predictability.
Teams that score have a higher predictability score:
Cardinals (5) - see below.
Buccs (4)
Packers (4) -
Game against NO is reducing their ranking since they scored -3 points against a middle O. I think you throw this game out... Against Detroit you got 6 points which was okay, but you would have expected elite. It's because the packers had 5 weeks in a row with greater than top 3 (season long) scoring that they have a high predictability score. 4 of those good/elite games came against neutral matchups. Must start neutral or better matchups going forward.
Colts (4) -
Against Rams (top 10 O) you would have expected to have to sit them but they put up a 10 point game. Against SF, a middle O, you expected an okay game but they put up a top 3 scoring week with 12 points. This is sneakily becoming an always must start team especially when combined with their upcoming schedule with 4 good matchups and 1 neutral.
How does this all help? I think one of the only sit/start questions you can predict successfully over the long term is defenses. Usually, a top tier D against a bottom tier offense will yield elite scoring. However, because each team plays different teams, current rank may be an inaccurate way to judge a team's future rank because schedules could be difficult at first and favorable in the second half. Also, teams that ran hot in first half of the season may have been fake because of their ease of schedule. This should help people decide who to stash and drop going forward. It also allows people to look at weeks and pick 2 defenses to complement each other easily.
The data really only is one part of the analysis but it should help facilitate more detailed discussions using statistics rather subjective analysis that people give. This should help you give more detailed responses.
i.e. The cowboys were terrible in week 1 and 2 but you can't hold this against them because you should have been able to tell that based on them facing top 10 defenses in weeks 1 and 2. Therefore, you should have sat them and started another team like the Broncos or Panthers.
The cardinals were an always must start team becausetheir two bad games came against top 10 teams: MIN / LAR. You should have sat them those games. However, even against top 10 scoring offenses like CLE, you have the potential to put up 14 points so they have become an always must start D against any team.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ej_iq-jq1skCVqr10FKBpKZHi1sgvLmr/edit#gid=777975032
Where to go from here / future updates?
Probably adjusting predictability score... Maybe it needs +2 -2 because it seems like teams either have very good weeks like 10+ or very bad weeks with zero or less.
I have not done the same analysis on offenses. Some top 10 offenses may not really be top 10 offenses and some bottom 10 offenses may not truly be bottom 10 offenses. It is worth looking into but not sure if I'll ever get into that.
edit: Sorry if my spreadsheet isn't the most robust. I used excel and just uploaded it to google sheets so I don't think it's converting properly.
TLDR; spreadsheet update is here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ej_iq-jq1skCVqr10FKBpKZHi1sgvLmr/edit?usp=sharing&ouid=115417934671390415427&rtpof=true&sd=true
ALL FP / RANKINGS ARE USING ESPN STANDARD DST SCORING
PAST PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS
I added a table with points scored and you can see how many weeks they had elite, good, neutral, or bad results for the first 7 weeks. Teams that had elite games are what you are really chasing here so teams like steelers who only had 1 elite game may not be great plays for future weeks even with good matchups.
On the flip side, seeing the weeks where teams scored poorly can help you understand if they had bad weeks because they underperformed or they just faced tougher offenses. Scores used to separate elite/good/neutral/bad are below. These are not the averages for that week but the season long averages based on DST ranking.
Elite Top 3 Scoring Avg - 8.2
Top 10 Scoring Avg - 5.9
Top 16 Scoring Avg - 4.7
Bottom - 0
Teams with the most elite games:
Bills - 4
Cardinals - 4
Packers - 4
Colts - 4
Panthers - 4
PREDICTABILITY SCORE
This is the meat and potatoes of the data analysis. It's one where I think I'll have to adjust but its a start... There's a lot of subjectivity in this rating but in general this is what I did.
Predictability Rating - Teams are given either +1, 0, -1 based on who they played and how well they scored.
Exceeds Expectations +1
Meets Expectations 0
Below Expectations-1
Scoring Expectations Used for Above Rating
Against Top 12, I expect them to score on the bottom half or less than 4.7 points that week.
Against Middle 10 - Because they are top 16 teams, I expect them to score the top 16 average: 4.7
Bottom 10 - I expect them to have a top 10 score against these teams: 5.9
Example: A team that does well against a top 12 team will get a +1. A team that fails to notch a top 10 scoring week against a bottom 10 team will get a -1.
Why? I wanted to backproof our future scheduling and see whether or not applying the always SIT versus top 10 offenses and starting against bottom 10 offenses will yield expected results. If so, then I would expect predictability rating to be 0 or greater. This is because I am only using the top 16 defenses. If I used the bottom 16 defenses, I'd expect wildly unpredictable results where bottom DSTs have bad games against bad offenses and have negative predictability.
Teams that score have a higher predictability score:
Cardinals (5) - see below.
Buccs (4)
Packers (4) -
Game against NO is reducing their ranking since they scored -3 points against a middle O. I think you throw this game out... Against Detroit you got 6 points which was okay, but you would have expected elite. It's because the packers had 5 weeks in a row with greater than top 3 (season long) scoring that they have a high predictability score. 4 of those good/elite games came against neutral matchups. Must start neutral or better matchups going forward.
Colts (4) -
Against Rams (top 10 O) you would have expected to have to sit them but they put up a 10 point game. Against SF, a middle O, you expected an okay game but they put up a top 3 scoring week with 12 points. This is sneakily becoming an always must start team especially when combined with their upcoming schedule with 4 good matchups and 1 neutral.
How does this all help? I think one of the only sit/start questions you can predict successfully over the long term is defenses. Usually, a top tier D against a bottom tier offense will yield elite scoring. However, because each team plays different teams, current rank may be an inaccurate way to judge a team's future rank because schedules could be difficult at first and favorable in the second half. Also, teams that ran hot in first half of the season may have been fake because of their ease of schedule. This should help people decide who to stash and drop going forward. It also allows people to look at weeks and pick 2 defenses to complement each other easily.
The data really only is one part of the analysis but it should help facilitate more detailed discussions using statistics rather subjective analysis that people give. This should help you give more detailed responses.
i.e. The cowboys were terrible in week 1 and 2 but you can't hold this against them because you should have been able to tell that based on them facing top 10 defenses in weeks 1 and 2. Therefore, you should have sat them and started another team like the Broncos or Panthers.
The cardinals were an always must start team becausetheir two bad games came against top 10 teams: MIN / LAR. You should have sat them those games. However, even against top 10 scoring offenses like CLE, you have the potential to put up 14 points so they have become an always must start D against any team.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ej_iq-jq1skCVqr10FKBpKZHi1sgvLmr/edit#gid=777975032
Where to go from here / future updates?
Probably adjusting predictability score... Maybe it needs +2 -2 because it seems like teams either have very good weeks like 10+ or very bad weeks with zero or less.
I have not done the same analysis on offenses. Some top 10 offenses may not really be top 10 offenses and some bottom 10 offenses may not truly be bottom 10 offenses. It is worth looking into but not sure if I'll ever get into that.
edit: Sorry if my spreadsheet isn't the most robust. I used excel and just uploaded it to google sheets so I don't think it's converting properly.
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Team Smokin'
Footballguy
Starting DAL D in two leagues, could shift to MIN D without Dak. Not gonna drop DAL D. Would have to drop D'Ernest.
I imagine MIN D gets a big bump.
I imagine MIN D gets a big bump.
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
Deciding between Colts and Saints this week. Tougher call than I would have initially thought.
Colts have Jets this week, Jax next week (although then they get Buf/TB the following two weeks). Other than the Ravens/Titans games, where they had second half collapses against very good offenses, they've been decent-not-great all season. Obviously, the big question is whether Mike White is the next Tom Brady. I tend to lean in the direction of teams figuring him out once they get some tape.
Saints are clearly a superior NFL defense, although their fantasy output has been somewhat boom and bust. They have a good match-up this week (Atl), followed by @Tenn (obviously not looking as scary with Henry likely out) and @Philly.
Really torn. My usual tie-breaker is to go with the best defense, which would suggest NO, but for some reason my gut is telling me to go Indy.
Colts have Jets this week, Jax next week (although then they get Buf/TB the following two weeks). Other than the Ravens/Titans games, where they had second half collapses against very good offenses, they've been decent-not-great all season. Obviously, the big question is whether Mike White is the next Tom Brady. I tend to lean in the direction of teams figuring him out once they get some tape.
Saints are clearly a superior NFL defense, although their fantasy output has been somewhat boom and bust. They have a good match-up this week (Atl), followed by @Tenn (obviously not looking as scary with Henry likely out) and @Philly.
Really torn. My usual tie-breaker is to go with the best defense, which would suggest NO, but for some reason my gut is telling me to go Indy.
Drake Hater
Footballguy
Glad I went with Seattle but kudos to the Steelers and Eagles defenses. I can possibly pick the Steelers up this week...
Saints are set and forget ROS except for 2 consecutive weeks vs BUF and DAL. Their playoff schedule is amazing. Im pissed I dropped them.
Depends on what you want. If you want predictability (i.e. they have elite games against poor offenses and bad games come against good offenses) then Colts are better in this respect as it is easier to play favorable matchups and sit versus tough matchups.
If you want a solid defense that you can start even against tough offenses and don't want to play the matchup, then I think Saints are the play. They are past their bye and have more neutral+ games where you can play them.
For this next week, I think it's probably the colts. Saints are playing a division matchup. Division games in general tend to be more unpredictable because both teams know more about each other. Even poor offenses can have great games against a division rival because of this element.
Couple that with Saints have a 1 for predictability rating:
Elite games came versus GB (top 10 offense you probably wouldn't have started against), their average 5.0 point showing against CAR (would have expected better since they are bottom 10 defense), -3 against NYG (a middle tier offense), an elite game against TB (top 10 offense), it's hard to tell when they to sit and start them.
And Colts predictability rating of 4:
Bad game came against BALT which is a top 10 offense, elite games came against MIA and HOU as expected with bottom 10 offense. And mixed results versus neutral (-1 vs SEA which could arguably been top 10 with russell), average game vs TEN (middle 10), elite vs SF (middle 10 offense).
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ej_iq-jq1skCVqr10FKBpKZHi1sgvLmr/edit#gid=777975032
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
Should have also mentioned one additional question mark with the Saints: How will Jameis' injury affect their gamescripts? Obviously hard to tell since we don't even know who his replacement will be, much less that person's impact. I could envision Hill coming in and they try to grind out victories with their running game like they did last season. I could also see the offense being more mistake-prone and putting the defense in worse positions. And of course they were already pretty "grindy" with Jameis, so it's possible nothing changes.
Drake Hater
Footballguy
Offense's game script should definitely handicap that defense. Not sure by how much just yet.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Started Bucs sat the Pats
WRONNNNNG
WRONNNNNG
LOL, I'm with you. I got cute and started chargers over Pats / Cowboys.
Then I started 49ers over Saints.
Think the process is right, but elite Defenses vs middle - elite offenses are much harder to predict. They can turn around unfavorable matchups.
Also think we need to re-evaluate some offenses and their rankings may not indicate their true strength.
I.e. Chargers have been putting up stinkers with Herbert, is he regressing? Maybe they aren't a top 10 offense but moreso middle tier now.
NE has been doing better and it seems like Mac Jones is improving before our eyes. May not be an always must start team to play against.
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Pietaster2
Footballguy
After stupidly dropping or missing out on some of the better WW defenses this season, I felt pleased as punch to have picked up and started the Steelers this weekend. Felt like a blind squirrel finding a nut after the way my DST streaming has been going this year.
The Steelers D has looked so much better with T.J. Watt back. It's going to be a lot of fun watching them take on the Chicago and Detroit offenses at home the next couple of weeks.
Judge Smails
Footballguy
Bears suck. That is all
titusbramble
Footballguy
What are people with Dallas thinking about things going forward? Was able to pick up in both my leagues and hold through the bye, they didn't do much statistically, and if Diglett misses time that's not going to help matters. Schedule looks good though
