2K9: Michael Turner (1 Viewer)

[greenline]

With a normal workload in the playoffs, Michael Turner will break 400 carries. He is currently at 376 after the regular season. How much does this concern owners for the 2009 season and would you steer clear of him relative to his draft position?

 

[Banger]

With a normal workload in the playoffs, Michael Turner will break 400 carries. He is currently at 376 after the regular season. How much does thgis concern owners for the 2009 season and would you steer clear of him relative to his draft position?

I want my RB to get carries and have never bought into the 400 carry "theory". RB's get injured, it may be the 11th carry, 300th carry,... The # of carries from the prior year doesn't impact my decision one bit.

 

[Koya]

For next year? Minor yellow flag, not worth much imo.

Should he have a similar load NEXT year I would begin to worry about the tread on the tires but for now, its good to see that he can handle the workload.

 

[buck naked]

Not yet, considering how few carries he had at San Diego.

 

[greenline]

Anyone have any 400 carries stats? I'd like to see previous workloads. I know Turner was kept light in San Diego but I'm curious as to how that stacks up relative to the other 400 carry backs. Obviously Larry Johnson was a workhorse after Priest Holmes.

 

[sizzer55]

doesn't concern me with turner. it would concern me more with players that have been getting 300+ carries for 4, 5, or 6 years and then they have a 400 carry season.

i can see my opinion on turner changing slightly depending on how heavy of a workload he takes in the playoffs. if atlanta happened to make it to the superbowl and turner got close to 100 carries in the playoffs then it would be much more of a factor but i would still expect him to have a good season next year. i guess it could effect my rankings slightly.

 

[Kevin Ashcraft]

This is something I have had bookmarked.......it is analysis Yudkin did a couple years ago.

http://www.footballguys.com/06yudkin_400touches.php

 

[The Man with the Plan]

He was going to be overrated anyways. 376 carries is just another reason why 2009 Turner won't be nearly as good as this season's version.

 

[Garts]

He has the body of a bowling ball...I think he can take the punishment that 400 carries may have on him.

 

[Garts]

He was going to be overrated anyways. 376 carries is just another reason why 2009 Turner won't be nearly as good as this season's version.

Maybe..maybe not.Are you also a person that said he would suck in Atlanta when he signed??

 

[stbugs]

He was going to be overrated anyways. 376 carries is just another reason why 2009 Turner won't be nearly as good as this season's version.

Maybe..maybe not.Are you also a person that said he would suck in Atlanta when he signed??

I don't know if he said he sucked, but he seemed to think LJ was more talented and would do better in 2008 and seeing as Turner almost doubled LJ's fantasy points this year, I would bet on Turner again next year and every year thereafter barring injuries.If you look at Yudkin's post above I think one of the telling things about 400 touches is that while there can be drop off, which is to be expected when 400 touches is usually tops in the NFL every year, there are plenty of guys with multiple 400 touch seasons. Based on the Falcons improvement and there good amount of talent and growth on offense, I would bet on Turner.

 

[CalBear]

Whenever you look at high-performing populations, you'll see a statistical regression to the mean in year N+1. If you look at rushes over 400, catches over 100, passes over 600, rushing/receiving TDs over 15, or any other exemplary stat, the population will always have a dropoff in year N+1. That's just statistics. The important thing to note is that the statistical dropoff does not predict that any individual will perform more poorly in year N+1. The population of backs with 400+ touches in year N is more likely to get 400+ touches in year N+1 than the populationof backs without 400+ touches in year N.

For the less stat geeky out there, that means, don't worry about it.

 

[greenline]

So we can expect a dropoff but don't expect a dropoff?

 

[CalBear]

So we can expect a dropoff but don't expect a dropoff?

It is relatively unlikely that Turner will get 370+ carries again next year, simply because high carry totals are largely based on situations, and situations change. I wouldn't project any RB to get 370 carries. Turner should still be projected to be near the top of the league in carries, yardage, and TDs.

 

[Eminence]

Well it's like this... the more carries a back gets the more chances he has to get injured.

Let's say we are rolling a dice. If it lands on a 6, you get injured. If it lands on anything else you're fine. Which is more appealing?

Option A: Rolling the dice 10 times.

Option B: Rolling the dice 1,000 times.

Of course you could a 6 rolling it 10 times... and you could get a 6 rolling it 1,000 times. But it's far more likely to roll a 6 if you roll a dice 1,000 times.

 

[eagles2007]

i agree with those who think turner will take a slight hit next year. not because of having 400 carries this year, but because Matt Ryan and the pass offense will improve as well as just the general fact that turner had an outstanding season and is likely to regress slightly.

i think he still gets 1,500 yards and at least 12 TDs though next year.

 

[AnonymousBob]

I hate it when my rb gets so many carries. I prefer them to handle the ball only a handful of times per season. It hurts their fantasy production but it helps limit their liklihood of getting hurt.

 

[CalBear]

Well it's like this... the more carries a back gets the more chances he has to get injured.Let's say we are rolling a dice. If it lands on a 6, you get injured. If it lands on anything else you're fine. Which is more appealing?Option A: Rolling the dice 10 times.Option B: Rolling the dice 1,000 times.Of course you could a 6 rolling it 10 times... and you could get a 6 rolling it 1,000 times. But it's far more likely to roll a 6 if you roll a dice 1,000 times.

No, it's like this... the more carries a back get the more chances he has to score fantasy points. If your goal is to avoid rolling a 6, you should roll the die as few times as possible. If your goal is to score the highest possible number of points, you should roll the die as many times as possible. If you could see into the future and know that Back A will get 370 carries in 2009, and Back B will get 270 carries, which back would you pick?

 

[puckalicious]

Well it's like this... the more carries a back gets the more chances he has to get injured.Let's say we are rolling a dice. If it lands on a 6, you get injured. If it lands on anything else you're fine. Which is more appealing?Option A: Rolling the dice 10 times.Option B: Rolling the dice 1,000 times.Of course you could a 6 rolling it 10 times... and you could get a 6 rolling it 1,000 times. But it's far more likely to roll a 6 if you roll a dice 1,000 times.

This line of thought is the same used by people who think they are more likely to win the lottery if they buy 10 tickets instead of 1. Technically, yes the odds are better, but is there really a difference between 1:1000000 and 1:10000000? Similarly, trying to guess when an injury happens due to workload is a fool's errand. The only way to prevent injury is to not play at all.