bulger2holt
Footballguy
List 3 players you are avoiding (around their ADP).
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3 must avoid players (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter bulger2holt
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bulger2holt
Footballguy
Bruce Hammond
Footballguy
Emmanuel Sanders DEN -- Has already said his numbers will decline but ADP isn't reflecting as they should be.
Alshon Jeffery CHI-- Will get the double teams this year, Trestman offense is gone, rookie Kevin White will get his share, and Jeffrey's yards dropped from '13 to '14 (1421 vs 1133). Cutler coulld be benched by midseason. No way Jeffery s/b WR9 or so.
Carlos Hyde SF -- Sure he's the #1 in SF now, but losses of Iupati and now Davis weaken the OL considerably, and defense weakened as well so the ability to run a lot to win won't be there. Bush will get the receptions out of the backfield. Hyde only ran for a 4.0 YPC spelling Gore last year and didn't look so good doing it. Six games against SEA, STL, ARI defenses. I think he's in for very mediocre numbers.
Alshon Jeffery CHI-- Will get the double teams this year, Trestman offense is gone, rookie Kevin White will get his share, and Jeffrey's yards dropped from '13 to '14 (1421 vs 1133). Cutler coulld be benched by midseason. No way Jeffery s/b WR9 or so.
Carlos Hyde SF -- Sure he's the #1 in SF now, but losses of Iupati and now Davis weaken the OL considerably, and defense weakened as well so the ability to run a lot to win won't be there. Bush will get the receptions out of the backfield. Hyde only ran for a 4.0 YPC spelling Gore last year and didn't look so good doing it. Six games against SEA, STL, ARI defenses. I think he's in for very mediocre numbers.
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Fresh Prince of Bel Nor
Footballguy
Hyde
Joique
Michael Floyd
Joique
Michael Floyd
Warrior
Footballguy
I try to avoid this type of strawman argument analysis.
Nobody is saying either player will repeat last year's numbers. Their ADP takes into account plenty of regression.
Neither is a valid reason to think you should avoid the player.
Shutout
Footballguy
I like every name I see on the list in this thread so far except Foster.
When I last looked at ADP (PPR), Foster was going early 2nd round and I have absolutely no problem with that because he is on the extreme short list of players taken in the 2nd that can play top 3 overall. And then when I look at the players being drafted in his range (Jordy, Murray, Cj Anderson, Forsett, Cobb, Jeffries, Sanders), I'd take him in a heartbeat.
The perception of people wanting to put him in a grave and predicting that because this happened, this will happen is overly analyzed. He either plays or he doesn't and that's a proposition any RB in the league faces. They have all been hurt from time to time. No RB emerges unscathed. But what I do know is that when he plays, he's a top bet for best ff RB in the game each and every week, very consistently.
Despite only playing in 10 complete games last year, he was still a top 5 ff RB. Let that sink in for a minute: played 63% of games, start to finish and still was a top 5 back overall. And look at the games he played completely: as usual, was just stuffed with stats. Seems like he never ends up with less than 20 points (ppr). To me, just my opinion, that is worth taking the shot with. You let this guy fall to the third and he will be like ADP a few years ago and will help someone win a title because you can't compete with that. You take him at his ADP and nobody's laughing at you. He plays, he outplays his spot easily. HE doesn't, then he's just one of those things that happens every year. Somebody every year takes a first rounder that doesn't measure up for whatever reason so I see no sweat doing it with a 2nd rounder, knowing full well that he can win my league for me.
When I last looked at ADP (PPR), Foster was going early 2nd round and I have absolutely no problem with that because he is on the extreme short list of players taken in the 2nd that can play top 3 overall. And then when I look at the players being drafted in his range (Jordy, Murray, Cj Anderson, Forsett, Cobb, Jeffries, Sanders), I'd take him in a heartbeat.
The perception of people wanting to put him in a grave and predicting that because this happened, this will happen is overly analyzed. He either plays or he doesn't and that's a proposition any RB in the league faces. They have all been hurt from time to time. No RB emerges unscathed. But what I do know is that when he plays, he's a top bet for best ff RB in the game each and every week, very consistently.
Despite only playing in 10 complete games last year, he was still a top 5 ff RB. Let that sink in for a minute: played 63% of games, start to finish and still was a top 5 back overall. And look at the games he played completely: as usual, was just stuffed with stats. Seems like he never ends up with less than 20 points (ppr). To me, just my opinion, that is worth taking the shot with. You let this guy fall to the third and he will be like ADP a few years ago and will help someone win a title because you can't compete with that. You take him at his ADP and nobody's laughing at you. He plays, he outplays his spot easily. HE doesn't, then he's just one of those things that happens every year. Somebody every year takes a first rounder that doesn't measure up for whatever reason so I see no sweat doing it with a 2nd rounder, knowing full well that he can win my league for me.
Hawkeye21
Footballguy
Gottabesweet
Footballguy
Carlos Hyde
Arian Foster
E. Sanders
Arian Foster
E. Sanders
MattFancy
Footballguy
Thought this was avoiding guys at their current ADP?
I like AP, but lately in mocks I've seen, he seems to be going #1 or #2. I just don't know how much I trust him to take him that high. If he was there in the mid/late 1st, I'd take him.
Same with Hyde. Like someone mentioned in here earlier, the 49ers have lost some key OL pieces this offseason. Just not sure how much I believe in Hyde.
Like Hopkins too, just not in the 3rd. Their QB situation is still poop and Andre isn't on the otherside to take away coverage.
Sweet Love
IBL Representative
I really like the first two on this list. In fact, Reed is rapidly approaching my do not draft list, and I rarely have a decent player I refuse to draft. Frankly, drafting today, I would have Paul miles ahead of Reed. In regards to Floyd, is it me, or is all the talk around Brown and Fitz...I feel like I have yet to hear Floyd's name, and after last year, I am beginning to think it may be a trend. Remember, coming into the league, there were concerns about complacency with him.
Marshall, I am not sure about. I don't think he is going particularly high, and I can see Geno feeding him relentlessly. In PPR, he should reach his ADP.
Dan Hindery
Moderator
We will have a big staff roundtable discussing this in-depth next week, but here are a few of the guys I will probably end up writing about:
Emmanuel Sanders
Michael Floyd
Jordan Matthews
Carlos Hyde
Joique Bell
Gio Bernard
Darren McFadden
Martellus Bennett
Jordan Cameron
I think all these guys are going at least one round too early according to current ADP.
Emmanuel Sanders
Michael Floyd
Jordan Matthews
Carlos Hyde
Joique Bell
Gio Bernard
Darren McFadden
Martellus Bennett
Jordan Cameron
I think all these guys are going at least one round too early according to current ADP.
Dan Hindery
Moderator
Agreed. Marshall is going at the top of the 5th round and that seems like a pretty decent spot for him. There have been some whispers about Floyd's attitude, conditioning and mental makeup and I buy in like you do to those concerns to some extent. Especially when you take into account the rumors that he was on the trade block for cheap during the draft. Reed's going late in the 12th round. I don't particularly like him, but he's pretty cheap this year and would be easy to drop for a waiver wire guy if he got injured again.
Hawkeye21
Footballguy
I see your reasoning. I think AP is right where he belongs. He's my top RB right now.
MattFancy
Footballguy
I do like him, but I'm not so sure if I had 1.1, that I'd take him there or even anywhere in the top 3-5. I know he's a freak, but he basically missed all last season and his getting up there in age. Do I think he can have a good season? Sure. Do I think he's worth a top 3-5 pick? Not really.
Ned Ryerson
Footballguy
According to FFcalculator Jordan Reed is going undrafted, so by saying you are avoiding him at his ADP, you are saying you would not draft him.
Right now Floyd is going at 94th, the 36th receiver overall. I don't love him, but his games where he sucked, and there are many, seem to be baked into this low draft position. He's someone, i'd be pretty pleased to have as 1st guy off the bench (which is how I see him being drafted) as I think his upside and talent are fairly high.
unckeyherb
Footballguy
FUBAR
Footballguy
my only hesitation with Foster is that I like to be able to handcuff my top RB with a RB who would get 75% (ish) of his stats if he got injured. But that's what keeps me from drafting him in the top of the 1st. In the 2nd, it's an easy pick.
fightingillini
Footballguy
For me I am avoiding
1) Drew Brees (QB5, average pick 57) - I think NO is going to run the ball a lot more and Brees is really going to miss Graham and Stills. Cooks is an upcoming talent, but Colston is just a shell of himself, and I worry about Spiller's injury history. Brees' upside used to be through the roof.....now it's somewhat capped. Rather have Russell Wilson at a similar draft price, or rather have Big Ben or Newton 1 or 2 rounds later, or draft Brady 2 rounds later followed with a decent backup to cover Brady's suspension.
2) Demarco Murray (RB10, average pick 17) - no way he gets that type of workload that he got last year, he's still an injury risk, and Mathews and Sproles are going to cap his upside, especially Sproles in PPR leagues Hard to hedge a Murray pick, since Mathews and Sproles are being drafted around the 10th round. We right now don't know how things are going to shake out in PHI. Rather have CJ Anderson at his draft price (and hedge with Ball with a 13th round pick on average) or wait for Justin Forsett 1 round later.
3) Sammy Watkins (WR20, average pick 45) - bad QB situation, offense should revolve around McCoy, and BUF added Harvin and Charles Clay. And he's being drafted as a lower WR2. Pass. Too bad since I really like Watkins' talent.
1) Drew Brees (QB5, average pick 57) - I think NO is going to run the ball a lot more and Brees is really going to miss Graham and Stills. Cooks is an upcoming talent, but Colston is just a shell of himself, and I worry about Spiller's injury history. Brees' upside used to be through the roof.....now it's somewhat capped. Rather have Russell Wilson at a similar draft price, or rather have Big Ben or Newton 1 or 2 rounds later, or draft Brady 2 rounds later followed with a decent backup to cover Brady's suspension.
2) Demarco Murray (RB10, average pick 17) - no way he gets that type of workload that he got last year, he's still an injury risk, and Mathews and Sproles are going to cap his upside, especially Sproles in PPR leagues Hard to hedge a Murray pick, since Mathews and Sproles are being drafted around the 10th round. We right now don't know how things are going to shake out in PHI. Rather have CJ Anderson at his draft price (and hedge with Ball with a 13th round pick on average) or wait for Justin Forsett 1 round later.
3) Sammy Watkins (WR20, average pick 45) - bad QB situation, offense should revolve around McCoy, and BUF added Harvin and Charles Clay. And he's being drafted as a lower WR2. Pass. Too bad since I really like Watkins' talent.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Jeremy Hill - Is in a timeshare - I don't get the love
DeAndre Hopkins - If Foster can stay healthy and if they can figure out the QB situation, then he'll be a solid WR2, but no more than that.
Carlos Hyde - What is happening in SF? They're about to have a terrible year. I don't want any part of a non-Frank Gore SF backfield right now.
DeAndre Hopkins - If Foster can stay healthy and if they can figure out the QB situation, then he'll be a solid WR2, but no more than that.
Carlos Hyde - What is happening in SF? They're about to have a terrible year. I don't want any part of a non-Frank Gore SF backfield right now.
Hawkeye21
Footballguy
The love for Hill is because he had the same situation last year and put up great numbers. Both Hill and Bernard were top 20 RBs last year.
pizzatyme
Footballguy
I think it's funny that the same names will show up in this thread and the "Must have" thread.
With that said, I'm avoiding these players at their current ADP:
Lynch- I think Graham steals several TDs.
CJ Anderson- I think it's a true timeshare this year with Ball.
Landry- Too many good players acquired in the off-season for Tanny to keep force-feeding him the ball.
With that said, I'm avoiding these players at their current ADP:
Lynch- I think Graham steals several TDs.
CJ Anderson- I think it's a true timeshare this year with Ball.
Landry- Too many good players acquired in the off-season for Tanny to keep force-feeding him the ball.
Skoo
Footballguy
Alfred Blue played pretty well last year when Foster was out. Had over 130 rushing yards one game if I remember correctly.
As far as getting 75% of the starters stats, I've got Knile Davis but can't think of anyone else off the top of my head that meets that criteria. He's the only guy I can think of that instantly becomes a weekly RB1. I guess maybe Ryan Matthews as well.
For me it's just a question of whether or not there is a clear-cut backup should the starter go down.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Which is why I would take Gio two rounds later. You might be right about Hill, though. I just seem him going really high. I assumed he was in a timeshare but maybe he gets bellcow work this year.
Pwingles
Footballguy
Sammy, if i could get him at a wr3's adp, id still consider it a dart throw but i might take him there
ellington, he'll be hurt, or split reps all season. Foot thing bothers me. Going quite a few spots early for all that risk, imo
Demarco, basically his opps are going down (duh) and idk if i trust he can maintain his health even tho his workload is lessened, pretty bad history of injuries
ellington, he'll be hurt, or split reps all season. Foot thing bothers me. Going quite a few spots early for all that risk, imo
Demarco, basically his opps are going down (duh) and idk if i trust he can maintain his health even tho his workload is lessened, pretty bad history of injuries
FUBAR
Footballguy
sorry about the tangent, but out of the top RBs, I'd include Matthews, D-Will, Fred Jackson, Starks, and Ball.
Which would imply that I'll probably avoid Lynch (though I happen to have him in dyno), Forte, Hill, Hyde and Ingram.
CJ Anderson. going 2nd round. I would not touch him in the 3rd. Average talent who wont sneak up
Andre Ellington. Injury waiting to happen and not big on Arizona Running game
Russell Wilson Going top 5. I will wait and grab the next tier. He is just to conservative to go that high even with the running.
Andre Ellington. Injury waiting to happen and not big on Arizona Running game
Russell Wilson Going top 5. I will wait and grab the next tier. He is just to conservative to go that high even with the running.
dickey moe
Fingerpicker
Russell Wilson
CJ Anderson
Mike Evans
CJ Anderson
Mike Evans
Jarvis Landry - too many mouths to feed all of a sudden, and this isn't exactly the Colts or Broncos offense we're talking about. Landry will get his 4-6 catches per game at 9 ypc, but that's not enough to produce wr3 numbers(even in a PPR), and that's what he's being drafted as (in fact he's being drafted as WR23 according to MFL data, which is just preposterous - and I'm a Dolphins fan.
Sammy Watkins - 3rd round ADP according to current MFL data. Rex Ryan offense, plus worst QB in the league = no thanks. IMO he belongs in the same tier as Brandon Marshall and Desean Jackson (other very good players on teams with QB issues), not up near TY Hilton and Kelvin Benjamin.
Joseph Randle - it seems he's climbing up the draft boards in recent days and weeks, perhaps after news broke that Darren McFadden is nursing a hammy. I don't buy the idea that a June hamstring strain for McFadden is going to substantially alter the depth chart in any meaningful way in September. I prefer Charles Sims at the price point Randle is going at.
Travis Kelce - I have him ranked as the 4th TE, probably significantly behind Greg Olsen, but Kelce is going in the 4th round in many leagues and that's just way too early for a still ascending player on a mediocre offense with a below average QB. I think with Kelce people are a bit intoxicated by his potential and creating an unrealistic outlook for his fantasy projection.
Sammy Watkins - 3rd round ADP according to current MFL data. Rex Ryan offense, plus worst QB in the league = no thanks. IMO he belongs in the same tier as Brandon Marshall and Desean Jackson (other very good players on teams with QB issues), not up near TY Hilton and Kelvin Benjamin.
Joseph Randle - it seems he's climbing up the draft boards in recent days and weeks, perhaps after news broke that Darren McFadden is nursing a hammy. I don't buy the idea that a June hamstring strain for McFadden is going to substantially alter the depth chart in any meaningful way in September. I prefer Charles Sims at the price point Randle is going at.
Travis Kelce - I have him ranked as the 4th TE, probably significantly behind Greg Olsen, but Kelce is going in the 4th round in many leagues and that's just way too early for a still ascending player on a mediocre offense with a below average QB. I think with Kelce people are a bit intoxicated by his potential and creating an unrealistic outlook for his fantasy projection.
pantherclub
Footballguy
32 Counter Pass
Footballguy
Also his HC recently affirmed that if Foster is healthy they are going to lean on him. And his is having a very healthy off season.Represents great value at his current ADP.
In what way do you see being on a mediocre offense with Alex Smith as your QB as being a bad thing for a TE? I promise you Vernon Davis would take him back in a heartbeat.
Banger
Footballguy
Joquie Bell - Ameer is approaching quick in the rear view mirror
Brees - no weapons and offense seems to be shaped more around the run than pass...would much rather have Big Ben / Romo a couple rounds later
Carlos Hyde - no confidence in their offense and they could be in for a tough year.
Brees - no weapons and offense seems to be shaped more around the run than pass...would much rather have Big Ben / Romo a couple rounds later
Carlos Hyde - no confidence in their offense and they could be in for a tough year.
jurb26
Footballguy
Players I don't like the price of right now in PPR.
QB - Manning, ADP 4.05 & QB3. Lost his LT and TE. Still likely good but I think elite numbers are unlikely and QB3 price is too much.
RB - Gore, ADP 3.10 & RB14. Like the football player and fit more for Indy, the team, than fantasy. Age will catch up at some point and the offense runs thru Luck. Can't justify paying early RB2 price.
WR - Cooks, ADP 3.07 & WR14. Scared about the direction of the NO passing game as a whole. High end WR2 isn't for me.
QB - Manning, ADP 4.05 & QB3. Lost his LT and TE. Still likely good but I think elite numbers are unlikely and QB3 price is too much.
RB - Gore, ADP 3.10 & RB14. Like the football player and fit more for Indy, the team, than fantasy. Age will catch up at some point and the offense runs thru Luck. Can't justify paying early RB2 price.
WR - Cooks, ADP 3.07 & WR14. Scared about the direction of the NO passing game as a whole. High end WR2 isn't for me.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Seems like your main point against him is already built into his ADP since he ended last season as RB1.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Ok. I'll play. Why will Luck have an epic season this year?
Luck had 4750/40 last year with another 275/3 on the ground. He threw the ball 616 times. How much better do you think he will do? What are you projecting for him this year?
I am a little skeptical that adding Andre Johnson and Frank Gore suddenly takes the Colts offense into the stratosphere. Both are long in the tooth and are not what they once were. Gore will miss running behind the SF line. Indy's run blocking has been below average for years.
One way to look at things is that the Colts traded Wayne and Nicks for Johnson and Dorsett. Wayne and Nicks combined for 102-1184-6. By comparison, what would you project Johnson and Dorsett to produce by comparison? There are so many passes to go around.
So for Luck to improve on last year's numbers, he will either need to pass more or pass more efficiently, both of which may be hard to accomplish. The only thing I will say that bodes well for Luck is that on paper he faces a bunch of teams that were weak against the pass last year.
sspunisher
Footballguy
Going crazy trying to decide how I feel about Gore. As bad as T-Rich was, that offensive line wasn't exactly opening holes. I see Gore getting hit in the backfield a lot. I don't like that for an aging RB. Very surprised that Indy didn't address their offensive line at all but maybe I'm placing more blame on the OL and not enough on Richardson.
3 down, unquestioned starting RB on an offensive juggernaut is hard to ignore though. I feel like he'll be TD and reception dependent, but Luck will vulture a lot of goal lines for sure so just might boil down to PPR or non-PPR for me.
3 down, unquestioned starting RB on an offensive juggernaut is hard to ignore though. I feel like he'll be TD and reception dependent, but Luck will vulture a lot of goal lines for sure so just might boil down to PPR or non-PPR for me.
ZWK
Footballguy
Last year, inside the opponents' 5 yard line Indy had 14 passing TDs (13 from Luck) and only 4 rushing TDs. The rest of the NFL had a 50-50 split on passing vs. rushing TDs from that distance (223 passing TDs, 224 rushing TDs). Now that the Colts have an actual NFL running back, I expect their goal-line TD numbers to be a lot more balanced as well, which will bring down Luck's big fantasy totals.
