30 years from now (1 Viewer)

[cstu]

I would vote Maybe, had it been an option. If he doesn't win a SB or two, No. If he continues to play like he has for another 5 or 6 years and he wins a couple of SB trophies, then he has a chance.

If he plays like he has and wins one ring he has a chance.

Two? He'd be in.That said its not looking good for that one and it would seem very unlikely for him to make it in without the ring.

He does seem a bit Bledsoe-ish

The first QB to win a SB for the Chargers better get in!

 

[Tau837]

Comparing Rivers to Bledsoe is shortchanging Rivers by a lot.

Rivers is significantly better than Bledsoe in every rate statistic: passer rating, completion percentage, TD percentage, interception percentage, yards per attempt, yards per completion, passing yards per game, sack percentage, etc. In most cases, it's not close.

Rivers already has made 4 Pro Bowls, the same number Bledsoe made in his career. It seems very likely he will end up with more than Bledsoe, possibly many more.

Bledsoe's teams did not win as often as Rivers' teams have in the regular season. In the postseason, Bledsoe's teams were 4-3 in his career, but he played really badly (54.9 passer rating, with no games above 77.9). Rivers' teams are 3-4 so far, and, while he hasn't played great, he has played much better than Bledsoe (79.2 passer rating). It seems likely will have more postseason opportunities before his career is done.

 

[cvnpoka]

Possibly the Drew Bledsoe of his generation.

no. hes tons better than bledsoe. not really sure where your hate for him stems from. he led the league in ypa for 3 straight years. not saying that is hof worthy, but hes quite clearly been an elite qb for most of his career and has a high peak. not at all comparable to bledsoe who only led the league in times sacked.

 

[cvnpoka]

Comparing Rivers to Bledsoe is shortchanging Rivers by a lot.

Rivers is significantly better than Bledsoe in every rate statistic: passer rating, completion percentage, TD percentage, interception percentage, yards per attempt, yards per completion, passing yards per game, sack percentage, etc. In most cases, it's not close.

Rivers already has made 4 Pro Bowls, the same number Bledsoe made in his career. It seems very likely he will end up with more than Bledsoe, possibly many more.

Bledsoe's teams did not win as often as Rivers' teams have in the regular season. In the postseason, Bledsoe's teams were 4-3 in his career, but he played really badly (54.9 passer rating, with no games above 77.9). Rivers' teams are 3-4 so far, and, while he hasn't played great, he has played much better than Bledsoe (79.2 passer rating). It seems likely will have more postseason opportunities before his career is done.

bolded is a bad way to look at it due to generational differences and the current stat inflation. regardless, compared to his contemporaries, who compose a golden era of qbing, he still destroys bledsoe.

 

[Tau837]

Comparing Rivers to Bledsoe is shortchanging Rivers by a lot.

Rivers is significantly better than Bledsoe in every rate statistic: passer rating, completion percentage, TD percentage, interception percentage, yards per attempt, yards per completion, passing yards per game, sack percentage, etc. In most cases, it's not close.

Rivers already has made 4 Pro Bowls, the same number Bledsoe made in his career. It seems very likely he will end up with more than Bledsoe, possibly many more.

Bledsoe's teams did not win as often as Rivers' teams have in the regular season. In the postseason, Bledsoe's teams were 4-3 in his career, but he played really badly (54.9 passer rating, with no games above 77.9). Rivers' teams are 3-4 so far, and, while he hasn't played great, he has played much better than Bledsoe (79.2 passer rating). It seems likely will have more postseason opportunities before his career is done.

bolded is a bad way to look at it due to generational differences and the current stat inflation. regardless, compared to his contemporaries, who compose a golden era of qbing, he still destroys bledsoe.

It's not perfect, but there is no perfect way to compare QBs who played in different generations. As I said, Rivers had a huge edge in most of the rate statistics, more than would reasonably be accounted for by generational differences.

 

[cstu]

Possibly the Drew Bledsoe of his generation.

no. hes tons better than bledsoe. not really sure where your hate for him stems from. he led the league in ypa for 3 straight years. not saying that is hof worthy, but hes quite clearly been an elite qb for most of his career and has a high peak. not at all comparable to bledsoe who only led the league in times sacked.

He's better than Bledsoe, but a better question is where your hate of Bledsoe is coming from. Bledsoe was actually very good early in his career and led the league in passing his second year in the league. His trouble with getting sacked didn't happen until later and in fact has a lower career sack percentage than Aaron Rodgers.

 

[Bri]

Comparing Rivers to Bledsoe is shortchanging Rivers by a lot.Rivers is significantly better than Bledsoe in every rate statistic: passer rating, completion percentage, TD percentage, interception percentage, yards per attempt, yards per completion, passing yards per game, sack percentage, etc. In most cases, it's not close.Rivers already has made 4 Pro Bowls, the same number Bledsoe made in his career. It seems very likely he will end up with more than Bledsoe, possibly many more.Bledsoe's teams did not win as often as Rivers' teams have in the regular season. In the postseason, Bledsoe's teams were 4-3 in his career, but he played really badly (54.9 passer rating, with no games above 77.9). Rivers' teams are 3-4 so far, and, while he hasn't played great, he has played much better than Bledsoe (79.2 passer rating). It seems likely will have more postseason opportunities before his career is done.

It's not a perfect comparison. Bledsoe was one of the few #1 draft picks to set a (then) record for sacks taken and still play well, most get shellacked and lose "it." It was a real bad team that probably experienced a near complete roster turnover in a 2 or 3 year span. Definitely one of the largest I can recall.He threw a then record for passes which was awful odd considering BP was always run, run, run at that point in his coaching career and because he was such an inexperienced unproven player.He choked many times in the playoffs and dunderhead was a fitting term. He did have a good year or two in the playoffs though leading them to a Supe. He did also come through in a huge way Brady's first year in that AFC Championship game. That was so clutch of him people considered it out of character.I wasn't pleased in that Green Bay Supe with Parcells having two weeks to get these old Giants (and Keith Byars) to suddenly be a bigger part of the gameplan. I felt like that was BPs worst plan ever and would have liked to see them just play GB with a normal player rotation/substitution. IIRC there was even one or two INTs that "everyone" called as it totally went to some old Giant in such a predictable fashion. I don't think the stats will bear anything out looking back. I'm sure Curtis Martin, Ben Coates, and Terry Glenn got their opportunities statistically. It wasn't how it felt to me though. Coates and Martin went on to have outstanding careers and I'm not sure Glenn was ever better than his rookie year. I really think BP goofed bigtime in that game plan and all.Bledsoe adjusted very well to differing circumstances throughout his career and never got much love for that. He did retire with gaudy career #s where an argument could be made that it wasn't him but his surrounding cast or coaches. For some reason, I liked the odd Rob Moore comparison with Bledsoe as he too was great for FF and not so much for NFL.Anyhow, Rivers could be the next Bledsoe or KC QB since they had some sweet regular season ones for a time there.I have only agreed with any sort of pouting maybe two or three times. It usually "kills" me and I wish guys would get cut for it. One year Tomlinson (I think it was curiously Norv Turner who was famous for runners) was so underutilized in the playoffs and it was painful to watch. At that point in his career he was Barry like and it didn't matter if he was 15 carries for 33 yards as there was a strong likelihood that the 16th carry could be an 80 yarder. I'm inclined to give Rivers a pass there, but it also means they chose to rely on him. I hate it more when teams are "cute" in the playoffs so I'd probably throw Rivers a break on that one. I think they lost to the Pats. I am of the impression that Tomlinson and Gates are two of the greatest ever so not winning a Supe with them stings some.I am fine with the notion he will surpass where he is at now and continue to improve and win a supe or two. Yeah he could finish better than Bledsoe. Totally makes sense. He's more compiler now and needs to get to the big dance.My biggest uncertain issue with Rivers is that he couldn't beat Brady and Manning. I'm sure you'll post the actual numbers, but it feels like he lost to one of them almost every year in the playoffs. That breeds a not good enough, not worthy, type sentiment that's hard to shake. I also think Brees is eons better right now and that Charger fans hung up on that comparison actually make people think less of Rivers. Brees "puts on a clinic" some weeks and those weeks he could produce an all time best game. It seems like most everyone all but forgets Brees was once a charger til some charger fan scoffs at a great game he has. Did you see Green Bay fans insulting Warner? Or Falcons fans jumping on Favre? It's so odd I can't think of a comparison in the NFL. I used to frequent one charger MB quite often and for years. I really found it annoying and it does take place here too, just not as often. Get over it already, Brees didn't cancel a prom date.

 

[Tau837]

My biggest uncertain issue with Rivers is that he couldn't beat Brady and Manning. I'm sure you'll post the actual numbers, but it feels like he lost to one of them almost every year in the playoffs. That breeds a not good enough, not worthy, type sentiment that's hard to shake.

Rivers' Chargers teams are 4-1 vs. Peyton Manning's Colts teams (2-1 in the regular season and 2-0 in the playoffs).Rivers' Chargers teams are 0-5 vs. Brady's Patriots teams (0-3 in the regular season and 0-2 in the playoffs).

I also think Brees is eons better right now and that Charger fans hung up on that comparison actually make people think less of Rivers.

The Brees situation should not reflect on Rivers at all. The fact is, the Chargers made the right decision in letting Brees walk. This has been covered numerous times in the Shark Pool.

 

[cvnpoka]

Possibly the Drew Bledsoe of his generation.

no. hes tons better than bledsoe. not really sure where your hate for him stems from. he led the league in ypa for 3 straight years. not saying that is hof worthy, but hes quite clearly been an elite qb for most of his career and has a high peak. not at all comparable to bledsoe who only led the league in times sacked.

He's better than Bledsoe, but a better question is where your hate of Bledsoe is coming from. Bledsoe was actually very good early in his career and led the league in passing his second year in the league. His trouble with getting sacked didn't happen until later and in fact has a lower career sack percentage than Aaron Rodgers.

i dont have any hate for bledsoe and think he was a very good qb. i happen to think rivers has had a few elite yrs and is an overall borderline elite guy. rodgers gets sacked a lot. its funny how the most mobile and the least mobile guys get sacked the most. id imagine rodgers sack% goes way down going forward.

 

[Bri]

My biggest uncertain issue with Rivers is that he couldn't beat Brady and Manning. I'm sure you'll post the actual numbers, but it feels like he lost to one of them almost every year in the playoffs. That breeds a not good enough, not worthy, type sentiment that's hard to shake.

Rivers' Chargers teams are 4-1 vs. Peyton Manning's Colts teams (2-1 in the regular season and 2-0 in the playoffs).Rivers' Chargers teams are 0-5 vs. Brady's Patriots teams (0-3 in the regular season and 0-2 in the playoffs).

surprised about Manning, quite surprised.

I also think Brees is eons better right now and that Charger fans hung up on that comparison actually make people think less of Rivers.

The Brees situation should not reflect on Rivers at all. The fact is, the Chargers made the right decision in letting Brees walk. This has been covered numerous times in the Shark Pool.

I know you offer a very logical, well thought out reasoning as to why they should have let him walk. A QB controversy can be very bad for a franchise and I get that; when it becomes controversial and not just competition for a starting spot. Payton's offense has been remarkable. Brees' supporting cast is loaded with players we all have issues with for FF including three of the most talked about NFL draft picks ever in Bush, Ingram, and Colston. The public's attention is there and if it isn't, one stellar game and it is. If Ingram gets 200 yards rushing in a game, this board blows up. If he gets 10 yards total, this board blows up with Pierre Thomas and bust threads. The seemingly one dimensional WRs, their TE becoming an uberstud so quickly. Payton is this era's Martz or Coryell. I'm sure if we were playing FF "back in the day" with Coryell that we'd be similarly obsessed. Payton is like crack for FFers. We will all jump on any player that has a good day for the Saints and we'll be all patient and wait for the player to develop on any other team. We'll pickup and drop so many Saints in a season and...we've probably debated seven or eight Saints RBs as a potential FF stud in the last so many years. (What me ramble?) Brees is the cog of that offense and he has become the next Fouts. I believe Chargers fans have a lot of trouble with that and know it to be true.I love Chargers fans, and all fans, this is not some sort of bashfest. Fans are quirky and it's fascinating. I could go again and point out that Chargers fans never like a CB, no matter whom they have. Even if it seems ya do, give it a year or two and the guy is gone with fans saying don't let the door hit ya. The love for LT2 was like the Bears fans love for Sweetness, the sheer confidence in Gates ability to recover from any injury is something to watch fans discuss too...there's good things, plenty of em' and God Bless Chargers fans. The Rivers/Brees thing just seems like a blackeye is all.

 

[ImTheScientist]

No, too many QBs in his era have rings and similar stats. In his own draft class 2 QBs have 2 rings. Unless the HOF starts accepting mediocrity.... he won't be in.

There are 3 HOF QB's from the 1983 draft. Other QB's from the same draft being HOF's should have no bearing on whether he deserves to get in.

The people you play with and other QBs have a huge bearing on whether you deserve to get in. You are judged by your performance compared to others in the generation you play in. Its pretty simple really and you probably should have thought about it before posting.I guess what you are saying is in the history of the NFL only one time have 3 QBs from the same class got into the HOF.

 

[cvnpoka]

lots of qbs get in. dont see why someone should be penalized for being in the same draft class as other greats. its better to look at it by era.

kelly

elway

young

marino

moon

aikman

montana and favre are partly in that era too. so thats 6-8 qbs.

now look at today, we have

eli

peyton

brady

brees

roeth

warner

favre

rodgers

thats 7 and after that rivers is right there. so theres obv precedent for a player of rivers ranking relative to his peers to get in if he continues to play at this level for 3-6 more years. he needs to decisively separate himself from guys like romo, cutler, and vick tho.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Comparing Rivers to Bledsoe is shortchanging Rivers by a lot.

Rivers is significantly better than Bledsoe in every rate statistic: passer rating, completion percentage, TD percentage, interception percentage, yards per attempt, yards per completion, passing yards per game, sack percentage, etc. In most cases, it's not close.

Rivers already has made 4 Pro Bowls, the same number Bledsoe made in his career. It seems very likely he will end up with more than Bledsoe, possibly many more.

Bledsoe's teams did not win as often as Rivers' teams have in the regular season. In the postseason, Bledsoe's teams were 4-3 in his career, but he played really badly (54.9 passer rating, with no games above 77.9). Rivers' teams are 3-4 so far, and, while he hasn't played great, he has played much better than Bledsoe (79.2 passer rating). It seems likely will have more postseason opportunities before his career is done.

bolded is a bad way to look at it due to generational differences and the current stat inflation. regardless, compared to his contemporaries, who compose a golden era of qbing, he still destroys bledsoe.

It's not perfect, but there is no perfect way to compare QBs who played in different generations. As I said, Rivers had a huge edge in most of the rate statistics, more than would reasonably be accounted for by generational differences.

Well sure, there isn't a perfect way. But that doesn't mean you throw your hands up in the air and say "oh, it's hard to do, so screw it." For example, you could look at Rivers and Bledsoe's stats vs their top-5 peers (in respective eras) and compare the differential in stats. That's a materially better approach than just pretending the generational difference doesn't matter.

 

[Tau837]

Comparing Rivers to Bledsoe is shortchanging Rivers by a lot.

Rivers is significantly better than Bledsoe in every rate statistic: passer rating, completion percentage, TD percentage, interception percentage, yards per attempt, yards per completion, passing yards per game, sack percentage, etc. In most cases, it's not close.

Rivers already has made 4 Pro Bowls, the same number Bledsoe made in his career. It seems very likely he will end up with more than Bledsoe, possibly many more.

Bledsoe's teams did not win as often as Rivers' teams have in the regular season. In the postseason, Bledsoe's teams were 4-3 in his career, but he played really badly (54.9 passer rating, with no games above 77.9). Rivers' teams are 3-4 so far, and, while he hasn't played great, he has played much better than Bledsoe (79.2 passer rating). It seems likely will have more postseason opportunities before his career is done.

bolded is a bad way to look at it due to generational differences and the current stat inflation. regardless, compared to his contemporaries, who compose a golden era of qbing, he still destroys bledsoe.

It's not perfect, but there is no perfect way to compare QBs who played in different generations. As I said, Rivers had a huge edge in most of the rate statistics, more than would reasonably be accounted for by generational differences.

Well sure, there isn't a perfect way. But that doesn't mean you throw your hands up in the air and say "oh, it's hard to do, so screw it." For example, you could look at Rivers and Bledsoe's stats vs their top-5 peers (in respective eras) and compare the differential in stats. That's a materially better approach than just pretending the generational difference doesn't matter.

The reason rate stats matter is because counting stats are subject to opportunity, and Bledsoe threw much more often than Rivers did... he is #3 all time in average passing attempts per game, and he was in the top 5 in passing attempts per game 7 times, compared to just one time for Rivers.I'm not throwing my hands up. The most important metrics favor Rivers by a healthy margin, as I've already posted. If you don't like a straight comparison of rate metrics, compare their top 5 finishes in those metrics:

Passer rating: Rivers 3, Bledsoe 0

YPA: Rivers 3, Bledsoe 0

Completion percentage: Rivers 1, Bledsoe 1

Passing TD percentage: Rivers 2, Bledsoe 1

Interception percentage: Rivers 1, Bledsoe 1

Now consider that Bledsoe played 12 seasons as a starting QB, twice as many as Rivers has played at this point. This comparison will likely look worse for Bledsoe in another six years.

 

[TS Garp]

I don't see it unless he pulls a Warren Moon and ends up in the Top 5 or 10 in both career yards and career TD's. I also worry that he may not age well. He's already a statue back there and it's only going to get worse.

 

[cstu]

Rivers already has made 4 Pro Bowls, the same number Bledsoe made in his career. It seems very likely he will end up with more than Bledsoe, possibly many more.

They both have had the same number of Pro Bowls through age 30.

 

[cstu]

No, too many QBs in his era have rings and similar stats. In his own draft class 2 QBs have 2 rings. Unless the HOF starts accepting mediocrity.... he won't be in.

There are 3 HOF QB's from the 1983 draft. Other QB's from the same draft being HOF's should have no bearing on whether he deserves to get in.

The people you play with and other QBs have a huge bearing on whether you deserve to get in. You are judged by your performance compared to others in the generation you play in. Its pretty simple really and you probably should have thought about it before posting.I guess what you are saying is in the history of the NFL only one time have 3 QBs from the same class got into the HOF.

Show me a class where a QB isn't in the HOF solely because there are other HOF QB's in his class.

 

[cstu]

I also think Brees is eons better right now and that Charger fans hung up on that comparison actually make people think less of Rivers. Brees "puts on a clinic" some weeks and those weeks he could produce an all time best game. It seems like most everyone all but forgets Brees was once a charger til some charger fan scoffs at a great game he has. Did you see Green Bay fans insulting Warner? Or Falcons fans jumping on Favre? It's so odd I can't think of a comparison in the NFL. I used to frequent one charger MB quite often and for years. I really found it annoying and it does take place here too, just not as often. Get over it already, Brees didn't cancel a prom date.

Where are the Chargers fans who dislike Brees? Every one I know is happy for him.

 

[dickey moe]

Based on his current trendline for stats/accomplishments? Nope.

 

[Jake22]

Without question.And he's also clearly the best QB from the 2004 class, despite Ben and Eli having rings.

Honestly don't see that. Possibly Eli but definately not Ben. Maybe Rivers is being held back by coaching.

disagree on both...put Eli or Rivers on the Steelers with that crappy O-line and see what they do, Ben could play with either the Giants or Chargers and still make the same plays that he does. Rivers and Eli would NOT have won a super bowl with the Steelers o-line as bad as it has been...

 

[ImTheScientist]

No, too many QBs in his era have rings and similar stats. In his own draft class 2 QBs have 2 rings. Unless the HOF starts accepting mediocrity.... he won't be in.

There are 3 HOF QB's from the 1983 draft. Other QB's from the same draft being HOF's should have no bearing on whether he deserves to get in.

The people you play with and other QBs have a huge bearing on whether you deserve to get in. You are judged by your performance compared to others in the generation you play in. Its pretty simple really and you probably should have thought about it before posting.I guess what you are saying is in the history of the NFL only one time have 3 QBs from the same class got into the HOF.

Show me a class where a QB isn't in the HOF solely because there are other HOF QB's in his class.

Where should I start? There are plenty of QBs that would have had a better shot at the HOF if they didn't play in the same era as great QBs. Unfortunately for Rivers he is up against too many greats including 2 from his own draft class. Nothing wrong with being a Rivers fanboy, you just need to be a little more realistic. Its a numbers game and he doesn't make the cut.

 

[cvnpoka]

you should start by naming those qbs.

 

[Tanner9919]

Without question.

And he's also clearly the best QB from the 2004 class, despite Ben and Eli having rings.

you're comparing apples to oranges.Rivers is a stat compiler ala Fouts/Marino, whereas Eli and Ben are championship winning QB's..each has their own merits..

not to say Rivers isn't a good QB, but...

Ben's postseason winning percentage = .714

Eli's = .727

Rivers =.429

postseason passer rating:

Eli 89.3, HIGHER than Tom Brady's 87.8.

Ben 83.7

Philip Rivers 79.2

Eli is tied for most road playoff wins in NFL history at 5.

most road wins in a reg and postseason in same year, 10.

2-time SB MVP.twice MVP...that HAS to mean something..

Ben is 10th all time in NFL passer rating 92.9, 11th in comp % at 63.24,4th highest career winning percentage (.710) among QB's with at least 100 starts.

Rivers has a higher career passer rating than both, 95.2. 63.5 career comp %..

Rivers is a great pure passing QB, whereas Eli and Ben are decent stat compilers, but they also can win the big games, something Rivers has yet to do..

Rivers plays against subpar opponents in the AFC West while Eli and Ben play in much,much tougher divisions..like another poster said, if Eli/Ben played inthe AFC West their numbers would be similar to Rivers'.

I know people like to diminish what QB's do in the postseason and use the 'Marino didn't win a SB but he's still great' argument, and I'm not trying to say Eli and Ben are new versions of Trent Dilfer and his single SB winning season (2000)..

these guys are better than that.they're not one-n-done postseason winning QB's..their postseason stats need to be acknowledged...5 road playoffs wins is impressive for Eli..Ben's reg season 4th highest career winning percentage and 10th all-time Passer rating put these guys well on their way to NFL immortality..

people want to knock Ben because he plays with the Steelers' defense backing him up..

well, Rivers plays with some of the worst defenses in NFL history in the AFC West, also played with all-time greats in Tomlinson and Gates - Ben and Eli don't have all-time greats on their offensive rosters..Rivers also avg's 289 yards/gm,whereas Eli avgs 227 and Ben just 233..different offensive systems..

I do think Rivers gets in the HOF if he keeps up with the stat compiling..I'd love to see him win a title someday..I'm a big fan of Norv Turner and his offensive prowess..I'm a big fan of Rivers.

but to say he's better than Eli and Ben is just wrong and stats back this up..

I'll take any of the three, but if I want to be sure I can win a title, I'll take Ben or Eli.

Rivers has that 'unless/until' albatross hanging around his neck..unless/until he wins the big one, he's the nextgen version of Dan Fouts..but, that's greatness in its own right for sure..

 

[SacramentoBob]

Anyone trying to say that Rivers has a better shot at the hall right now than Eli or Ben is fishing.

 

[Foosball God]

Raider Nation's comment was from Nov. 2010, not right now.

FTR, I don't think Rivers will be a HOF QB.

 

[Koya]

Without question.And he's also clearly the best QB from the 2004 class, despite Ben and Eli having rings.

Honestly don't see that. Possibly Eli but definately not Ben. Maybe Rivers is being held back by coaching.

disagree on both...put Eli or Rivers on the Steelers with that crappy O-line and see what they do, Ben could play with either the Giants or Chargers and still make the same plays that he does. Rivers and Eli would NOT have won a super bowl with the Steelers o-line as bad as it has been...

Not sure where you come up with this conclusion. For one, the Steelers won the first SB in spite of Ben. He was downright awful. Had Eli been half as bad in either of his appearances the Gisnts would have certainly lost. Second, the Giants line this year put Eli in harms way plenty. Heck, Eli got destroyed against San Fran (granted a very very good defense) and still played exceptionally well, didn't turn the ball over nor make other mistakes and came through in the clutch. Again.Big Ben is a gamer but Eli has out his offense on his back for two super bowl runs. He was the best player on two teams that went through very tough competition in the playoffs and won the super bowl. Can't say that about Big Ben even with his success.Rivers is just not in this conversation. Nice stats but has not demonstrated the ability to take a team on his back, be a leader and be clutch and march through the full gauntlet. He has not even made a super bowl not to say won one.Rivers is the best regular season statistical QB. But he has trended the wrong way the last two years.Big Ben started with a flurry, although he was lucky to get that first ring, really way considering his play. Even so, I can see the argument for him over Eli at this point. He can do things outside the passing game that the others can't.Eli is, by far, the most clutch of the three. The best "winner" of the bunch. Has shown that in the regular season and especially when it counts most. He has also been trending up with play this past year that was far more consistent than his previous seasons. That was always Eli's big drawback - clutch, a winner, but would get way inconsistent at times. From here forward, Rivers has everything to prove and is way behind both outside of stats. Big Ben needs to show he can stay healthy and get back to winning as he has done. If Eli remains consistent he could very well separaten from the pack but he has to prove that consistency is season to season not just a career year.Either way, IMO (biased admittedly) I'll take the clutch winner but can't argue with Big Ben other than injuries and a knuckleheadedness that you still fear may show. Rivers has put himself out of this discussion for now, tend though he has skills and stats the last two years don't help his cause.

 

[Tau837]

Update?

 

[cstu]

Update?

He's still needs another 5 Pro Bowl level years or a Super Bowl win.

 

[cvnpoka]

hes still better than eli. wonder if eli is still a lock.

 

[cstu]

but to say he's better than Eli and Ben is just wrong and stats back this up..

I'll take any of the three, but if I want to be sure I can win a title, I'll take Ben or Eli.

Would you still rather have Eli?

 

[bigmarc27]

but to say he's better than Eli and Ben is just wrong and stats back this up..

I'll take any of the three, but if I want to be sure I can win a title, I'll take Ben or Eli.

Would you still rather have Eli?

Does he come with the rings?

I'd take Terry Bradshaw + 4 rings over Marino.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Out of curiosity, anyone have any idea the highest that Rivers has finished in MVP voting?

Aside from the real hardware like division/conference/NFL championships and passing titles, sometimes it's just perception. The people who vote for players keep on voting for / against them after their careers. And right or wrong (speaking as someone from small market NO) I don't know that SD gets a lot of attention with the voters for the HOF even if Rivers does get there in terms of accomplishments.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

but to say he's better than Eli and Ben is just wrong and stats back this up..

I'll take any of the three, but if I want to be sure I can win a title, I'll take Ben or Eli.

Would you still rather have Eli?

Does he come with the rings?

I'd take Terry Bradshaw + 4 rings over Marino.

If Marino had been drafted by Pittsburgh I guarantee you he would have won a couple rings. Archie Manning probably would have won a couple, maybe 4-6, too.

 

[LarryAllen'sJockstrap]

but to say he's better than Eli and Ben is just wrong and stats back this up..

I'll take any of the three, but if I want to be sure I can win a title, I'll take Ben or Eli.

Would you still rather have Eli?

Does he come with the rings?

I'd take Terry Bradshaw + 4 rings over Marino.

If Marino had been drafted by Pittsburgh I guarantee you he would have won a couple rings. Archie Manning probably would have won a couple, maybe 4-6, too.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

but to say he's better than Eli and Ben is just wrong and stats back this up..

I'll take any of the three, but if I want to be sure I can win a title, I'll take Ben or Eli.

Would you still rather have Eli?

Does he come with the rings?

I'd take Terry Bradshaw + 4 rings over Marino.

If Marino had been drafted by Pittsburgh I guarantee you he would have won a couple rings. Archie Manning probably would have won a couple, maybe 4-6, too.

Yes, I think Archie could have won those playoff games 1976-77. He was better than Bradshaw when he came in the league. No reason he wouldn't have stayed that way.

Put 'can't spell cat' Bradshaw behind the Saints 70 sack o-line and bottom tier defense for 5 years coming into the league and he probably goes the way of Spurrier.

 

[Tau837]

Exchange in the Chargers offseason thread about this subject:

Rivers is the greatest Charger in the history of the franchise.

Do Charger fans really feel this way? From an outsider perspective this seems a little over the top.

I'm the biggest Rivers fan in this forum, but I wouldn't say that. I would say he is clearly one of the best, along with LT, Seau, Fouts, Winslow, and Alworth, in no particular order.

If Rivers plays 3+ more seasons for the Chargers, he will surpass Fouts in accumulated statistics and will far surpass him in wins. Rivers is already much better in rate statistics, though of course a lot of the difference has to do with playing in different eras.

But here is the thing. Fouts, Winslow, Seau, and Alworth are in the HOF, and LT will be when he becomes eligible. As of today, Rivers won't be. Not when he has played with so many better contemporaries who are viewed as being among the best all time (Peyton, Brady, Rodgers, Brees) and other lesser QBs with multiple Super Bowl rings (Roethlisberger, Eli). Hard to say one guy who won't be in the HOF is better than several who are.

If Rivers plays a few more years in San Diego and retires a Charger, and the team wins a Super Bowl during that time, he will make the HOF and be worthy of being called the greatest Charger ever. But that's what it would take.

Rivers could win 1 superbowl and still not make the HOF.

and yeah his numbers will be better than Fouts, but like you said, Fouts put up them numbers in a much different era.

Rivers' current all time rankings:

20 completions
20 passing yards
20 total offense
16 passing TDs
7 completion percentage
10 YPA
4 AY/A
5 NY/A
4 ANY/A
10 passing yards per game
18 interception percentage
6 passer rating
28 wins
21 comebacks
35 game winning drives

As already noted, his rate statistics are already elite, and there is no reason to expect those to drop off.

If he plays two more seasons, he will be in the top 10 in completions, passing yards, total offense, and passing TDs, and will be just outside the top 10 in wins. If he plays four more seasons, he should be around 6th or so in all of those metrics.

That is very compelling, as is his iron man streak of never missing a start (already the 4th longest streak of consecutive starts in NFL history for a QB), especially if that continues.

The biggest knock against him right now is the competition, as I mentioned before. He has played in a golden era of quarterback play, and that has kept him from winning significant honors despite the fact that he has played great. However, I think if leads the Chargers to a Super Bowl victory, that would be enough to put him over the top.

 

[SacramentoBob]

ZERO 1st team all-pro awards. Never in a million years.

 

[SacramentoBob]

These are the major QBs he's competed against in his career.

Manning - 7x all pro, 5x MVP, 1x Super Bowl MVP

Favre - 3x all pro, 3x MVP

Brady - 2x all pro, 2x MVP, 3x Super Bowl MVP

Rodgers - 2x all pro, 2x MVP, 1x Super Bowl MVP

Brees - 1x all pro, 1x Super Bowl MVP

Rivers - NOTHING

 

[B-Deep]

if there is a hall of "not bad for a d-bag" i'd vote him right in

 

[Tau837]

These are the major QBs he's competed against in his career.

Manning - 7x all pro, 5x MVP, 1x Super Bowl MVP

Favre - 3x all pro, 3x MVP

Brady - 2x all pro, 2x MVP, 3x Super Bowl MVP

Rodgers - 2x all pro, 2x MVP, 1x Super Bowl MVP

Brees - 1x all pro, 1x Super Bowl MVP

Rivers - NOTHING

And all 5 of those other guys will get in, no question. That doesn't preclude Rivers from getting in. As I posted, he still has plenty of work to do to make it possible, including winning a Super Bowl.

 

[SacramentoBob]

Adjusted per start, Romo has better stats than Rivers across the board. Better playoff stats too.

 

[CalBear]

Adjusted per start, Romo has better stats than Rivers across the board. Better playoff stats too.

Romo has a chance at the HOF too, though he's hurt by not starting until he was 26. The HOF loves QBs and Cowboys and if he makes the Super Bowl he'll probably be in.

These guys are the Warren Moon and Jim Kelly of this era.

 

[Tau837]

Adjusted per start, Romo has better stats than Rivers across the board. Better playoff stats too.

By across the board, do you mean accumulated statistics only or also rate statistics?

 

[SacramentoBob]

QB A: 123 starts, 270 yards, 1.97 TD, .89 INT

QB B: 110 starts, 256 yards, 1.65 TD, .83 INT

QB C: 144 starts, 254 yards, 1.75 TD, .85 INT

QB D: 143 starts, 247 yards, 1.57 TD, 1.08 INT

Spoiler

A: Tony Romo

B: Matt Ryan

C: Philip Rivers

D: Carson Palmer

 

[SacramentoBob]

Adjusted per start, Romo has better stats than Rivers across the board. Better playoff stats too.

Romo has a chance at the HOF too, though he's hurt by not starting until he was 26. The HOF loves QBs and Cowboys and if he makes the Super Bowl he'll probably be in.

These guys are the Warren Moon and Jim Kelly of this era.

There will be a logjam of guys with similar resumes and he won't be remembered nearly as fondly as Warren Moon or Jim Kelly. Not saying he won't eventually get in, but he's not HoF caliber to me. You can tell the story of the NFL without Philip Rivers.

 

[CalBear]

QB A: 123 starts, 270 yards, 1.97 TD, .89 INT

QB B: 110 starts, 256 yards, 1.65 TD, .83 INT

QB C: 144 starts, 254 yards, 1.75 TD, .85 INT

QB D: 143 starts, 247 yards, 1.57 TD, 1.08 INT

Spoiler

A: Tony Romo

B: Matt Ryan

C: Philip Rivers

D: Carson Palmer

Don't know why you included D in here, since he's pretty clearly worse than all the others (especially if you include rate stats). B's rate stats are also pretty weak compared to A and C, who are fairly comparable across the board.

Romo and Rivers are both marginal HOF candidates. Either one could solidify their place in the Hall with one notable season.

Here's everyone with 20,000 passing yards since 2009 (choosing that year because Romo doesn't have 20K since 2010):

Brees 29775

Brady 26812

Rivers 25958

E.Manning 25132

M.Ryan 24726

Rodgers 24211

Roethlisberger 24083

P.Manning 24063

Romo 22708

Flacco 22560

Stafford 21714

Brees, Brady, Manning, and Rodgers are clearly in. Of the others, you've got the iffy passer, Super Bowl winners Roethlisberger, E.Manning, Flacco. Among the guys without Super Bowl rings, Rivers and Romo are clearly better than Ryan and Stafford. So I don't think there are a lot of comps that look bad for them; they're clearly better passers than five guys on this list, and the only question is whether being a better passer trumps winning a Super Bowl (assuming Rivers and Romo don't win a Super Bowl from here on out).

 

[SacramentoBob]

There are currently 23 QBs in the HoF. Of that 23, there are 8 whose career primarily started/was in the 80s or later. The five locks from the 90s+ are Manning, Brady, Favre, Brees, Rodgers. I think Warner should be a lock, but that's another discussion. He'll get in eventually, just not on the 1st ballot. Roethlisberger likely gets in due to his Super Bowls.

So that's 7 that are going to get in before Rivers. It's likely going to be 10-12 years before all of those guys get in before he's even seriously considered. And by the time he's seriously considered he gets lumped in with the Drew Bledsoes of the world. Plus Eli and his 2 Super Bowl rings is out there. Then a couple more years and younger guys like Stafford and Ryan become eligible and they have another decade to improve their standing. And if he's not in by then, well guys like Luck, Wilson and Newton will start becoming eligible.

For a solid decade of HoF voting he won't be the #1 QB on the board and he'll be competing with all the big names at other positions. Philip Rivers or DeMarcus Ware? Phillip Rivers or Julius Peppers? I mention that last part because we know the HoF committee likes to limit how many people they induct each year, no matter how stacked the card is.

 

[CalBear]

There are currently 23 QBs in the HoF. Of that 23, there are 8 whose career primarily started/was in the 80s or later. The five locks from the 90s+ are Manning, Brady, Favre, Brees, Rodgers. I think Warner should be a lock, but that's another discussion. He'll get in eventually, just not on the 1st ballot. Roethlisberger likely gets in due to his Super Bowls.

So that's 7 that are going to get in before Rivers. It's likely going to be 10-12 years before all of those guys get in before he's even seriously considered. And by the time he's seriously considered he gets lumped in with the Drew Bledsoes of the world. Plus Eli and his 2 Super Bowl rings is out there. Then a couple more years and younger guys like Stafford and Ryan become eligible and they have another decade to improve their standing. And if he's not in by then, well guys like Luck, Wilson and Newton will start becoming eligible.

For a solid decade of HoF voting he won't be the #1 QB on the board and he'll be competing with all the big names at other positions. Philip Rivers or DeMarcus Ware? Phillip Rivers or Julius Peppers? I mention that last part because we know the HoF committee likes to limit how many people they induct each year, no matter how stacked the card is.

Rivers is 33. He's going to play several years longer than Brees, Manning, and Brady, all of whom will get in on the first ballot (as will Favre). When Rivers is up for consideration, there will not be many QBs who are comparable to him who are on the borderline: pretty much, only the Roethlisberger, E.Manning, and Romo group. If Rivers wins even one Super Bowl, he's clearly the top of that group; as it is, he can be anywhere from #1-#4 depending on your view. And even if you view him as #3, if the other two get in then he'll be in the "best QB not in the Hall" group, and that's generally a position that gets you into the Hall.

Drew Blesdoe is a horrible comp and no one would think of Rivers that way.

 

[SacramentoBob]

Drew Blesdoe is a horrible comp and no one would think of Rivers that way.

Compiler. So-so playoff record. Handful of Pro Bowls with no All Pros. Not in the league of the other top guys in his class. It's exactly who Rivers is in this era. You think the HoF committee is looking at adjusted yards per attempt when deciding who to put in? No. Rivers doesn't even get the sympathetic "Lost 4x in the Super Bowl" vote. Two other guys in his draft class have 2 Super Bowls each. There's nothing for Rivers to hang his hat on when it's all said and done. No Super Bowls. No league records. No MVPs. No All Pros. His biggest claim to fame is the fact that the Chargers wanted two time Super Bowl winning QB Eli Manning instead. Or the guy who replaced one time Super Bowl winning, (ex) NFL single season passing yards record holder Drew Brees.

 

[Tau837]

There are currently 23 QBs in the HoF. Of that 23, there are 8 whose career primarily started/was in the 80s or later. The five locks from the 90s+ are Manning, Brady, Favre, Brees, Rodgers. I think Warner should be a lock, but that's another discussion. He'll get in eventually, just not on the 1st ballot. Roethlisberger likely gets in due to his Super Bowls.

So that's 7 that are going to get in before Rivers. It's likely going to be 10-12 years before all of those guys get in before he's even seriously considered. And by the time he's seriously considered he gets lumped in with the Drew Bledsoes of the world. Plus Eli and his 2 Super Bowl rings is out there. Then a couple more years and younger guys like Stafford and Ryan become eligible and they have another decade to improve their standing. And if he's not in by then, well guys like Luck, Wilson and Newton will start becoming eligible.

For a solid decade of HoF voting he won't be the #1 QB on the board and he'll be competing with all the big names at other positions. Philip Rivers or DeMarcus Ware? Phillip Rivers or Julius Peppers? I mention that last part because we know the HoF committee likes to limit how many people they induct each year, no matter how stacked the card is.

You are stretching to make your case IMO, and you don't really have to do it. I'm pretty sure no one has posted in this thread for years who stated that Rivers is likely to make it. As to your post here:

1. In the 1981-1990 HOF classes, 8 QBs were inducted. Then there was a lull in the 1990s, with just 2 QBs inducted from 1991-1999, one of them Jim Finks, who played in the 1950s. Then in the 2000-2006 HOF classes, 7 QBs were inducted. There have been none inducted since, partly because with the rule changes, improved training/medicine, etc., elite QBs are playing longer careers. But this shows that QBs have been inducted in bursts. And now we are in what amounts to the golden age of QB play. So it is possible that a high number of peers will be inducted.


2. Favre is a lock and will be in on the first ballot in the class of 2016. Rivers probably won't be eligible for another 8+ years after that class, so that has no bearing on his case.

3. In part due to the lull referenced above, I expect Warner to make it NLT the class of 2018. Still well before Rivers becomes eligible, so not really much of a factor.

4. If Peyton retires after this season, he will be a first ballot lock in the class of 2021. Still likely 2+ years before Rivers becomes eligible, so not really much of a factor.

5. It seems that Brady and Brees both intend to play at least a few more seasons, barring major injury. So their timing could be similar to Rivers or he could trail them by a few years, depending on how long he plays. Regardless, both are obviously first ballot HOF locks.

6. Rivers will likely be eligible for at least 5 years before Rodgers is eligible, so he may not affect Rivers' case. And all of the other younger guys you mentioned are irrelevant to his case because they will come much later.

7. So when Rivers becomes eligible, it will probably be true that in the preceding 18-20 years, 5 QBs have been inducted (Favre, Warner, Peyton, Brady, Brees). With another lock on the medium term horizon (Rodgers, 5+ years away from eligibility) and perhaps by then another lock or two (Luck? Wilson?) on the longer term horizon. I don't really see the big problem you are saying exists with the number of competitors who we know now will very clearly be ahead of Rivers.

8. This will leave Rivers competing with Roethlisberger, Eli, and perhaps Romo. All of them still have years to play, so what they accomplish from here forward will determine how they compare in the end.

9. Romo is by far the least accomplished of the group of peers mentioned, and he turns 35 in less than a month, so he is also the oldest and thus likely has the least amount of time remaining. I think he has no shot, unless he finishes very strong, including at least one Super Bowl win.

10. Roethlisberger and Eli would have a better chance than Rivers today, thanks to their championship rings and because both of them play for historically popular east coast franchises. But IMO Rivers has clearly been a better passer than both of them, which counts for something. As I posted earlier, if Rivers finishes strong and leads the Chargers to a Super Bowl win, I think he will be in, regardless of what happens with the other two. If he doesn't, he probably won't make it.

11. As for comparing Rivers to Bledsoe, you are making yourself look foolish. Rivers is much better than Bledsoe was, and it's not close.