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I haven't researched the stats, but how about Drew Brees. Both started their careers with the same team. Drew Brees has won a Super Bowl, a Super Bowl MVP, and numerous passing stats. Do they both make it? As well as Brady, Manning, Favre, Rodgers,Warner, Eli?, McNabb?Someone has to be left out.
Yes, Brees will also make it; he's been top 5 in passing yards/game for five years straight, led the league in passing yards and passing TDs twice in that time frame. None of those guys has to be left out; seven QBs were chosen between 2000 and 2006. Warner, Favre, Brady, and Manning will likely all be in the Hall before Rivers' career is over, or shortly thereafter; certainly well before he's up for selection himself. Voters won't think "oh, we let in Manning three years ago, we'd better not let in Rivers now."Rivers is likely to have a better resume than McNabb, barring a miraculous Super Bowl run by the Redskins in the next couple of years. Eli has a long way to go to be considered a HOF QB; the only thing he has going for him is a Super Bowl win.
QB rating is a poor metric. there are far superior alternatives. confining stats to only the playoffs has sample size issues.
I may be way off, but my measure has always been how do you compare against your peers? This generation has produced some incredible QB's. To make the HOF you will have to excell above the rest. Right now Rivers is a close call.
See, this is where I struggle when we discuss the Manning/Brady thing. I don't agree with you that Rivers has been more productive than Eli and Roethlisberger in 4 of the last 5 seasons. I guess what it boils down to is, what does more productive mean? Does it mean more yards? Higher YPA? More TDs? Higher scoring offenses? Third down conversion? Better time of possession? More wins? Better postseason performances? Doing more with fewer or lesser targets? Executing a winning coach's system the best? Better passing numbers in identical down and distances? I think most people would agree that Rivers is called on to pass more frequently in San Diego than Roethlisberger is in Pittsburgh. But I would guess that over the last five years, Roethlisberger has passed more often in 2nd or 3rd and long situations when the Steelers ran early and didn't get them into third and short. I think most people would agree that Rivers' numbers this year without some combination of Gates, Jackson, Floyd or Mathews in any given game are more impressive than his numbers with a full cadre of receiving talent. Shouldn't we consider Eli's numbers with first and second year receivers like Smith, Manningham, and a half season of Nicks last year to be every bit as impressive when those guys had never shown more than flashes of talent, especially when they ran a run heavy offense and played in the NFC East? When I look at what Rivers is doing this year, I don't see a guy who is throwing the team to wins and close games. I see a guy who is throwing the ball very well, but has also lost to teams that were struggling like the Chiefs, Seahawks, Rams and Raiders. Those teams are a combined 20-20. If the Chargers had taken care of business against a group of teams that sucked last year, they'd be a combined 16-24. So did the Chargers get unlucky against good teams this year? Or are they all doing a little better than expected because they beat the Chargers? Does it matter that Rivers has 15 TDs in his five wins, and 8 TDs in those five losses? We've dont the Manning/Brady debate to death, but let's talk about a guy we agree on. I'm guessing that you and I agree that Troy Aikman is a bit overrated, but for different reasons. I'd suggest that you think he's overrated because of the Superbowls and because he never put up monster numbers. I think he's overrated because he had an insane offensive line, great consistency in his offensive personnel, had Emmitt Smith to keep defenses honest in the play action pass, and had multiple receiving options when they did go play action. (I'd guess there's some overlap in those positions, but I'm talking about the first reason that comes to mind). I think you probably give him more credit for his best passing season, and I think I probably give him more credit for doing what he's supposed to do within a championship offense. I guess what I'm trying to say is, I put a lot less stock in passing numbers as a tool for measuring QB skill. Two guys throwing for the exact same numbers against the same team the same season in the same weather at the same location in games that have the same meaning to the team are not necessarily the same in my mind. I think you'd agree with that statement, but you still seem to look at a different kind of "production" than I do when we talk about which QB is better. I don't think Rivers is better than Roethlisberger, and I'm not sure who's better at this point between Eli and Rivers.
IMO wins is a team accomplishment. The QB is instrumental, but not solely responsible. It's important, and it's one of multiple useful criteria, but should not be overweighted IMO. In general, Rivers has produced more total production and has done so with greater efficiency. To me, that means he has been better.
I'm not sure what time frame you are referencing here. I referred to the past 5 seasons (i.e., 2006-2010) in my previous post because that is how long Rivers has been starting. Over that span (regular season), Rivers has averaged 30.2 passing attempts per game and Roethlisberger has averaged 30.3. It's true that Rivers is passing more often this year (35.3 to 31.2).
Using ESPN splits, I can see the number of attempts on 2nd & 8-10, 2nd & 11+, 3rd & 8-10, and 3rd & 11+. For purposes of addressing this, I will consider these to be representative of "2nd or 3rd and long situations". Note that I counted all rushing attempts as scrambles for convenience.
No, I don't think so. Eli threw for 4021/27/14 with a 93.1 passer rating. Rivers is on pace for 5083/37/14 with a 105 passer rating. There is a huge gap there.
Putting all numbers aside, to say you don't know about Eli vs. Rivers simply suggests to me that you haven't watched them play much. I don't need the numbers to know that answer... the eyeball test is enough. As for Roethlisberger, I think people who favor him over Rivers give more credit to the QB for wins and losses than I do. Case in point is this year, when the Chargers special teams have lost 2-3 games for the Chargers, which isn't Rivers' fault.
I think you are selling Moon short here. Also, Fouts made the HOF without a Super Bowl appearance.
No. I have not been discussing "career up to this point" in terms of comparing Rivers to others, and I'm not sure anyone else has either.I have made certain claims in this thread. First, I think Rivers will be a HOFer. Second, I think he is a better QB right now than Roethlisberger and Eli. Third, I think he has been better overall since 2006, when he first became a starter, than Roethlisberger and Eli. Fourth, I think it's fair to say both Roethlisberger and Eli are more accomplished given that they have won championships. I don't think any of that has to do with 2004 and 2005.
Good point on Fouts. He was a stat amasser before it became the norm and also one of my favorite players as a kid.
I didn't mean that to be insulting. I just don't know how someone can watch a lot of both of them and not know with certainty that Rivers is a better QB without having to once refer to statistics. If you don't see that, as surprising as that is to me, I can just agree to disagree on that point and move on.
Yes, Rivers hasn't been as good this year when down by 1-8 points as he should be. However, I get different numbers than you when looking back through his splits. Using passer rating as shorthand, here are his season ratings since he became a starter when down by 1-8 points:2006: 119.72007: 88.12008: 116.22009: 91.42010: 77.8His overall rating is 95.4 in that situation, and I count 30 TDs and 16 interceptions, not 30/20. Looks like this year is an outlier, and I'd expect it will improve over the remainder of this season, which would in turn push his overall rating in this situation above 100.As for Ben's 4 straight seasons of 103+, I agree that is a credit to him. However, it's worth noting that he has a total of just 238 attempts in those situations over that span, whereas Rivers has 433 over those same seasons. That just serves to illustrate that Roethlisberger shouldn't be overcredited for the wins. He has quite obviously had a much better defense and special teams during his career than Rivers has, and this is one way it shows.
Yes, Rivers is on pace to crush his old attempts record... because the Chargers have consistently ranked in the bottom quarter of the league throughout his career in passing attempts prior to this season. The fact is that he is 8th in the league in attempts, but he is leading the league in passing yards and passing TDs.I agree that quality is more important than quantity. And no QB in the league is providing better quality in his play right now than Rivers.
You said 30 TDs and 20 interceptions, which was wrong. Hence the different numbers comment. I also pointed out that in his career he has been quite good in that situation prior to this year. I think he'll pick it up down the stretch.
surely you see why this is misleading. the steelers dont play the steelers. the patriots dont play the patriots.lets try it again sans the teams we are comparing.
Then the AFC west will look even worse.IIRC Rivers is 3-4 in the playoffs. Losing to Brady twice, Big Ben and the jets last year. Not exactly losing to chumps
He has a 2-0 record against Indy in the playoffs ... last time I checked they were pretty good and had a pretty good QB.Phil Rivers gets a bad rap because of the way he presents himself on the field. Some of the ire is warranted but the guy has amazing talent and plays well against quality defenses.
You do realize that Oakland's defense has ranked in the 20s the three years previous to this one, right? And the Broncos' defense has been dreadful the last three and a half years, except for the first half of last year. So, despite having great corners, those defenses have not been good, and thus, rather easy pickings for a lot of QBs, not just Rivers.
If their pass defenses are bad, then that's a legitimate point. If the teams are bad, it's not. That's all I'm saying.
Rivers finished 2010 with a 74.0 passer rating when trailing by 1-8 points, and followed that up with a 77.1 passer rating in that situation last year. This has definitely hurt his numbers and hurt the Chargers the past two years.
IMO he would be a lock in the bolded scenario.
so never.
Pretty much. But Romo is only 31 and I would think in a much better offensive situation than Rivers right now. If anything Romo might be more likely to be better from this point on in his career. If he can keep his job.
Romo was clearly better than Rivers in 2007 and 2011, Rivers was clearly better in 2008 and 2009 and had a monster season in 2010 when Romo was hurt. Rivers is more than 1.5 years younger than Romo. Why would Romo be better from this point forward?
Austin, Bryant, Witten, Murray, Jones.
Not clearly better than Meachem, Floyd, Brown, Gates, Mathews IMO.
imo it is.Not clearly better than Meachem, Floyd, Brown, Gates, Mathews IMO.
He needs to do more than Bledsoe and Esiason, but he hasn't yet. He's pretty even with them through age 30 but they went downhill after 30. Here's hoping he doesn't.
