What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

5 Players You are Fading in the top 50 (redraft) (7 Viewers)

  • Achane- he's got a soft tissue injury, Tua is a hit away from missing a month(s?), Miami looks like a sinking ship.
  • Tyreek- all the stuff I said about Tua and Miami plus he is clearly unhappy there and we've seen the play decline, it's over for him
  • Cook- he doesn't get high volume, he's not the prolific reciver he was billed as and he rushed for a total of 4 TDs in his first two seasons, his 16 last year given his usage seems impossible to expect again
  • Breece- sure seems like they want a RBBC, I don't expect a fast paced high scoring offense and with Fields we won't get the reception numbers
  • Baker- Godwin can't even jog yet, McMillan is out for at least half the season, new OC. It's much more likely he slips back into the muddy QB 12-18 range than repeat his 45 TD season
 
  • Achane- he's got a soft tissue injury, Tua is a hit away from missing a month(s?), Miami looks like a sinking ship.
  • Tyreek- all the stuff I said about Tua and Miami plus he is clearly unhappy there and we've seen the play decline, it's over for him
  • Cook- he doesn't get high volume, he's not the prolific reciver he was billed as and he rushed for a total of 4 TDs in his first two seasons, his 16 last year given his usage seems impossible to expect again
  • Breece- sure seems like they want a RBBC, I don't expect a fast paced high scoring offense and with Fields we won't get the reception numbers
  • Baker- Godwin can't even jog yet, McMillan is out for at least half the season, new OC. It's much more likely he slips back into the muddy QB 12-18 range than repeat his 45 TD season

great list, considered Achane and Tyreek.
 
Drake London 158 targets, 1,271 and jumped from 2 TD in '23 to 9 last year
I'll take the under across the board

Brock Bowers- new Sheriff in town and more mouths to feed, a RB that apparently is going to take the NFL by storm
See Sam LaPorta, his rookie season made him the #1 TE in FF, Bowers will easily come in under his stats from a year ago

Ladd McConkey- great rookie season, they just brought Keenan Allen back into the fold, they have a rookie WR they drafted high, and they lost Slater at LT for the season
Might be easier for them to just pound the football inside which is what Harbaugh loves.

JSN- Price tag is astronomical for a team that is going to run the football enough times to keep both of their RBs happy
I'll take the under on him duplicating 100 catches

Jayden Daniels-3rd QB off the board? Seriously? I'll pass and watch him regress with the Washington team this year as the temperature rises just a bit for Dan Quinn in Year 2
They had a terrible off season IMHO, not understanding how short these windows can be

Excellent thread Trip, thank you!
 
NFFC ROC 12 team 3RR

(Puka & Kyren already mentioned)

26th overall - Tee Higgins. Yeah, I know he got paid, but unless money magically cures his recurring hamstring issues, this is way too high. Especially off last year. No injury discount? Cmon.

38 - Davonte Adams - same reasons I’m concerned about Puka & Kyren, plus age resembling his ADP.

46th - Ridley. I roster him in a dynasty league & hope the hypsters are right, but he’s not an elite WR. He’s been floating on that 1 awesome year of production. TEN isn’t going to be airing it out all Willy nilly and Ridley can still be contained by quality defensive backs. I like him, I just don’t want to pay a 4th round price for him.

52. Alvin Kamara. Saints are a mess, AK is old, and I want no part of that team. This is roughly the same ADP as Jameson Williams & Chuba Hubbard, and depending which way my draft is going I’d much rather have either.
 
NFFC ROC 12 team 3RR

(Puka & Kyren already mentioned)

26th overall - Tee Higgins. Yeah, I know he got paid, but unless money magically cures his recurring hamstring issues, this is way too high. Especially off last year. No injury discount? Cmon.

38 - Davonte Adams - same reasons I’m concerned about Puka & Kyren, plus age resembling his ADP.

46th - Ridley. I roster him in a dynasty league & hope the hypsters are right, but he’s not an elite WR. He’s been floating on that 1 awesome year of production. TEN isn’t going to be airing it out all Willy nilly and Ridley can still be contained by quality defensive backs. I like him, I just don’t want to pay a 4th round price for him.

52. Alvin Kamara. Saints are a mess, AK is old, and I want no part of that team. This is roughly the same ADP as Jameson Williams & Chuba Hubbard, and depending which way my draft is going I’d much rather have either.
I'm not sure Ridley is going 46th off the board right now
I have been drafting him in the 6th-7th round
I actually think Ridley can put up similar numbers to tee Higgins taken 3 rounds earlier

I hear you on Kamara but there's not much else there and he can catch the ball, it's kind of a get out of jail card for him and investors
40 rush/40 rec, 4 catches and a TD every once in a while, he's not bad for his draft spot but he's old and you don't want to be the guy that drafted him on the year he plummets
 
Kyren - no passing game upside. He has volume but the amount of volume he had last year will be hard to repeat. His rushing efficiency declined a lot last year.

Burrow - Give me Jalen and his rushing upside around the same ADP.

Garrett Wilson - The Jets will probably be bad and if they arent it will be because they are successful at rushing the ball. Just hard to see the upside here.

DJ Moore - Career low YPRR last year. New coaching staff went out and drafted 2 young pass catchers. His ADP is too high for this ambiguity.

Sutton - In 7 seasons, this guy has not finished higher than WR24 in PPG. He's ranked higher or equally with guys like Jameson Williams, Tet, Devonta Smith who have a lot more upside. This is the kind of boring safe mid-round pick that gets you 7th place in your league.
 
but he's old and you don't want to be the guy that drafted him on the year he plummets
That’s part of it as well - and I don’t disagree with any of that, but ROC ADP of 52 is steep to me. He went 4.05 today, ahead of Chuba, Breece, and Hendo. Also I cheated because he’s outside the top 50, though that ADP is a range. He went inside that in my draft today.
 
C. Brown/Bucky I. - I need to see more from both to pass on various 2nd round players for them
All Dolphish - bad feeling about this team - they 'reek' of cancer this year
J. Cook - good player being drafted a couple rounds too high based on 18 TDs last year
T. Higgy - perenially overrated - weekly boom/bust, combined with a history of injury
J. Conner - luv him, but father time is ticking at 30, prior injury history, and an RBBC brewing
 
Brock Bowers- new Sheriff in town and more mouths to feed, a RB that apparently is going to take the NFL by storm
See Sam LaPorta, his rookie season made him the #1 TE in FF, Bowers will easily come in under his stats from a year ago

I'll disagree here. The Raiders are not comparable to last year's Lions offensively. LaPorta got lost simply because of too many mouths to feed. That's not really the case in LV. Bowers also has an upgraded QB from last year, and Jeanty will only help keep pressure off.
 
NFFC ROC 12 team 3RR

(Puka & Kyren already mentioned)

26th overall - Tee Higgins. Yeah, I know he got paid, but unless money magically cures his recurring hamstring issues, this is way too high. Especially off last year. No injury discount? Cmon.

38 - Davonte Adams - same reasons I’m concerned about Puka & Kyren, plus age resembling his ADP.

46th - Ridley. I roster him in a dynasty league & hope the hypsters are right, but he’s not an elite WR. He’s been floating on that 1 awesome year of production. TEN isn’t going to be airing it out all Willy nilly and Ridley can still be contained by quality defensive backs. I like him, I just don’t want to pay a 4th round price for him.

52. Alvin Kamara. Saints are a mess, AK is old, and I want no part of that team. This is roughly the same ADP as Jameson Williams & Chuba Hubbard, and depending which way my draft is going I’d much rather have either.

3 Rams on the list….. 9ers fan? Checks notes, yep. 😉
 
Burrow - Give me Jalen and his rushing upside around the same ADP.

Garrett Wilson - The Jets will probably be bad and if they arent it will be because they are successful at rushing the ball. Just hard to see the upside here.

DJ Moore - Career low YPRR last year. New coaching staff went out and drafted 2 young pass catchers. His ADP is too high for this ambiguity.

Feelin' all of these too. Good with Burrow in 6 pt TD w/yardage premium (i.e. FBG Home Leagues), but not in standard, relative to Hurts at minimum.
 
Good with Burrow in 6 pt TD w/yardage premium (i.e. FBG Home Leagues), but not in standard, relative to Hurts at minimum.
Yeah, I grabbed Burrow over Hurts 1.04 in a recent SF start-up, but only because of 6 point PaTD & .1/20 PaYd with -2 Ints.

In a 4 PT PaTD system I’ve got Hurts above Burrow for sure.
 
Brock Bowers- new Sheriff in town and more mouths to feed, a RB that apparently is going to take the NFL by storm
See Sam LaPorta, his rookie season made him the #1 TE in FF, Bowers will easily come in under his stats from a year ago

I'll disagree here. The Raiders are not comparable to last year's Lions offensively. LaPorta got lost simply because of too many mouths to feed. That's not really the case in LV. Bowers also has an upgraded QB from last year, and Jeanty will only help keep pressure off.
153 targets last season
Pete Carroll is not going to throw to the TE 153 times this year
I combine that thought/opinion with this
The Raiders most rushing attempts last year was Mattison with 132 for a whopping 420 yards
Things are about to change in Las Vegas, I will take the under on Bowers this year
 
Maybe. But help me remember please, who’s played in more games the past 3 seasons, Stafford or CMC?
Don’t know what that has to do with the price of tea in China or why I’m fading Rams.

I’m fading CMC too (loudly and often) so this isn’t quite the “gotcha” moment you seem to think it is, friend.
 
Maybe. But help me remember please, who’s played in more games the past 3 seasons, Stafford or CMC?
Don’t know what that has to do with the price of tea in China or why I’m fading Rams.

I’m fading CMC too (loudly and often) so this isn’t quite the “gotcha” moment you seem to think it is, friend.
Well it isn’t now! (See post above). Damn you.
 
Drake London 158 targets, 1,271 and jumped from 2 TD in '23 to 9 last year
I'll take the under across the board

I'll respectfully take the under on targets and the over on both yardage and TDs for young Mike Evans.

Penix >>> washed 2024 Cousins
I was high on Penix when they drafted him
Do you realize how late he is being drafted in FF?
He might go undrafted in some leagues
 
Brown. I’m worried about the hammy
Reports are it’s mild. But that said, 18th overall is a bit rich. Can’t recall where but I read he’s expected to practice next week.
Yeah, let me reiterate- this is my gut. I don’t have any super secret inside info. AJ would be getting camp rest days no matter what- he’s a workout warrior and an established vet.

But, it’s been the timing of it all and him going from Limited to DNP that has me raising my eyebrows. He has a history of hammy issues, too. A dude built like him, playing a position like WR, it’s always gonna be soft tissue injuries that are the major concern.

There’s no way he misses opening night on a Thursday game against the Cowboys when the my hang the banner. No possible way. My worry is season-long, nagging hammy issues.

I’m fading him this season in fantasy.
 
While I’m on it,

1.07 - CMC - more for you if you’re into that sort of thing. League winning upside. Doorstop floor. I’m out.

Appreciate the level headedness. Agreed on passing on CMC where he's now going this year. He's the best player in fantasy football when healthy, but this game is won/lost in weeks 15-17 and he's among those who I am least confident will be scoring fantasy points for teams during that stretch. Not saying it won't happen, but I'll let it be someone else's home run or strike out, while I seek a solid double/triple to build upon.
 
Kyren - no passing game upside. He has volume but the amount of volume he had last year will be hard to repeat. His rushing efficiency declined a lot last year.

Burrow - Give me Jalen and his rushing upside around the same ADP.

Garrett Wilson - The Jets will probably be bad and if they arent it will be because they are successful at rushing the ball. Just hard to see the upside here.

DJ Moore - Career low YPRR last year. New coaching staff went out and drafted 2 young pass catchers. His ADP is too high for this ambiguity.

Sutton - In 7 seasons, this guy has not finished higher than WR24 in PPG. He's ranked higher or equally with guys like Jameson Williams, Tet, Devonta Smith who have a lot more upside. This is the kind of boring safe mid-round pick that gets you 7th place in your league.
Burrow is QB5 off the board most of the time
4,900/43 TD
4.475/35TD
4,611/34TD
3 of his last 4 seasons, 1 was cut short by injury

What other QB has those type of passing numbers?
They're Dan Marino level, pass on Burrow at your own risk
 
I was high on Penix when they drafted him
Do you realize how late he is being drafted in FF?
He might go undrafted in some leagues
1. I’m still high on Penix
2. Penix seemed to unlock London
3. I have London as the WR5 this year. 😬
4. Penix is my starting QB2 in a new dynasty league.
5. There is no 5, it like looks more symmetrical like this.

But you’re spot on - Penix will go undrafted in a lot of leagues. He’ll likely be a hot waiver pick up in a lot of them too if things go right.
 
3 more

Jonathan Taylor-2nd rd? I'm too worried the colts will be a mess since they are tanking for Arch

Travis Kelce-old.I'm not thinking he'll rebound.

J.K. Dobbins-he may be fine, assuming he doesm't get hurt but this will likely be RBBC
 
Not saying it won't happen, but I'll let it be someone else's home run or strike out, while I seek a solid double/triple to build upon.
CMC went 1.06 in my ROC league today. Jeanty went 1.12
Lamb (1.07), BTJ (1.08) Nabers (1.09), ARSB (1.10), and London round out the rest of the 1st.

I’m probably taking anyone on that list over CMC. It’s gutless - I admit it. I may lack the intestinal fortitude to be a champion.
 
Kyren - no passing game upside. He has volume but the amount of volume he had last year will be hard to repeat. His rushing efficiency declined a lot last year.

Burrow - Give me Jalen and his rushing upside around the same ADP.

Garrett Wilson - The Jets will probably be bad and if they arent it will be because they are successful at rushing the ball. Just hard to see the upside here.

DJ Moore - Career low YPRR last year. New coaching staff went out and drafted 2 young pass catchers. His ADP is too high for this ambiguity.

Sutton - In 7 seasons, this guy has not finished higher than WR24 in PPG. He's ranked higher or equally with guys like Jameson Williams, Tet, Devonta Smith who have a lot more upside. This is the kind of boring safe mid-round pick that gets you 7th place in your league.
Burrow is QB5 off the board most of the time
4,900/43 TD
4.475/35TD
4,611/34TD
3 of his last 4 seasons, 1 was cut short by injury

What other QB has those type of passing numbers?
They're Dan Marino level, pass on Burrow at your own risk

It's only a fade at ADP. Burrow had a career high TD rate last year which will be tough to repeat. High TD rates historically regress the year after. It's lamost automatic. There will likely be regression here because last year's passing volume will be hard to repeat. And he does not have the rushing volume to make it up. Jalen Hurts with his toosh push and rushing upside arguably has more of chance of finishing higher than Burrow.
 
Some Good mentions so far. I'd add I'd add old man Aaron Jones. I disagree about Moore though. I didn't think that Williams was all that great but maybe Johnson can fix him/the bears. Moore in the 5th/6th seems reasonable
This is a good one - I swear every year I think “I’m not gonna take AJones because the end is nigh”

The end is never nigh. Dude is immortal. He has a unicorn and drinks its milk daily. That has to be it.
 
Kyren - no passing game upside. He has volume but the amount of volume he had last year will be hard to repeat. His rushing efficiency declined a lot last year.

Burrow - Give me Jalen and his rushing upside around the same ADP.

Garrett Wilson - The Jets will probably be bad and if they arent it will be because they are successful at rushing the ball. Just hard to see the upside here.

DJ Moore - Career low YPRR last year. New coaching staff went out and drafted 2 young pass catchers. His ADP is too high for this ambiguity.

Sutton - In 7 seasons, this guy has not finished higher than WR24 in PPG. He's ranked higher or equally with guys like Jameson Williams, Tet, Devonta Smith who have a lot more upside. This is the kind of boring safe mid-round pick that gets you 7th place in your league.
Burrow is QB5 off the board most of the time
4,900/43 TD
4.475/35TD
4,611/34TD
3 of his last 4 seasons, 1 was cut short by injury

What other QB has those type of passing numbers?
They're Dan Marino level, pass on Burrow at your own risk

It's only a fade at ADP. Burrow had a career high TD rate last year which will be tough to repeat. High TD rates historically regress the year after. It's lamost automatic. There will likely be regression here because last year's passing volume will be hard to repeat. And he does not have the rushing volume to make it up. Jalen Hurts with his toosh push and rushing upside arguably has more of chance of finishing higher than Burrow.

In fairness to MOP, I think there are plenty better fades than Burrow. Even in 4 pt TD, 16 games of healthy Burrow is gonna come somewhat close to Hurts at least, and plenty close to those immediately after. And don't disrespect Burrow's rushing too much. Jaylen Hurts he is clearly not, but Joey B has way better wheels than your avg pocket passer and gets a meaningful amount of rushing stats every year.
 
I admit it. I may lack the intestinal fortitude to be a champion.
you're still a champ in my book

:wub:

because last year's passing volume will be hard to repeat
Have you seen that defense that’s now likely to lose Hendrickson?

Last year they passed over 650 times. 2 years before that were just over 600. 650 seems close to a ceiling to me. Their defense has been bad for years hasn't it?
 
Kyren - no passing game upside. He has volume but the amount of volume he had last year will be hard to repeat. His rushing efficiency declined a lot last year.

Burrow - Give me Jalen and his rushing upside around the same ADP.

Garrett Wilson - The Jets will probably be bad and if they arent it will be because they are successful at rushing the ball. Just hard to see the upside here.

DJ Moore - Career low YPRR last year. New coaching staff went out and drafted 2 young pass catchers. His ADP is too high for this ambiguity.

Sutton - In 7 seasons, this guy has not finished higher than WR24 in PPG. He's ranked higher or equally with guys like Jameson Williams, Tet, Devonta Smith who have a lot more upside. This is the kind of boring safe mid-round pick that gets you 7th place in your league.
Burrow is QB5 off the board most of the time
4,900/43 TD
4.475/35TD
4,611/34TD
3 of his last 4 seasons, 1 was cut short by injury

What other QB has those type of passing numbers?
They're Dan Marino level, pass on Burrow at your own risk

It's only a fade at ADP. Burrow had a career high TD rate last year which will be tough to repeat. High TD rates historically regress the year after. It's lamost automatic. There will likely be regression here because last year's passing volume will be hard to repeat. And he does not have the rushing volume to make it up. Jalen Hurts with his toosh push and rushing upside arguably has more of chance of finishing higher than Burrow.

In fairness to MOP, I think there are plenty better fades than Burrow. Even in 4 pt TD, 16 games of healthy Burrow is gonna come somewhat close to Hurts at least, and plenty close to those immediately after. And don't disrespect Burrow's rushing too much. Jaylen Hurts he is clearly not, but Joey B has way better wheels than your avg pocket passer and gets a meaningful amount of rushing stats every year.

Yeah there are probably worse players to fade but he's so close to Hurts' ADP, and the Konami code QB cheat is for real.
 
Burrow is QB5 off the board most of the time
4,900/43 TD
4.475/35TD
4,611/34TD
3 of his last 4 seasons, 1 was cut short by injury

He mentioned Burrow vs. Jalen Hurts in 4 per TD leagues. That comp over the last four seasons may be closer than you think. This coming from a Burrow truther in the SP Home Leagues format.
I think I was clear and specific about his "passing" numbers ;)
Marino couldn't run at all either and yet he's one of the most gifted pocket passers partly due to his ability to buy time "IN" the pocket
Most of these mobile QBs abandon the pocket the second they see a different colored jersey approaching
Maybe Hurts is close in points but Burrow had some games last year that distanced him from the field

Go look at the game logs for Burrow from Week 9 thru Week 16 last season, you won't find a single QB that came close to his passing numbers
For 8 weeks straight he threw a minimum of 3 TDs every single game and avg over 300 yds passing
 

Users who are viewing this thread

Back
Top