I am in the same hole in my league and a lot of what you are saying is what I have been debating. I will get back later though and post some of my own thoughts. Good writeup though EG.
Thanks, man. I'm looking forward to hearing where you stand on some of these calls, as you are a shark pooler whose opinion I highly value and respect.
Thanks EG. I hope I can add something of value. This has been a very good thread so far.To start with, mine is a 12 team league, with the following scoring.
1 pt/25 pass yds up to 300 yds, 2 pts for each 25 yds after 300 yds
1 pt/10 rush yds
1 pt/10 rcv yds
6 pt for standard TD's
10 pt TD if a player scores "out of his element" (ie a RB catches a TD, a WR rushes a TD, a QB rushes a TD)
1 PPR
Roster size- 15
As you can see, RB's that can catch are very valuable in my league. I have pored over the options for weeks now and I have pretty much settled on going RB/WR with my first two picks. I was pleasantly surprised to see that many others in this thread have also said this is the way they would prefer to go. As someone has already said, I think this will provide me with the flexibility to pounce on the value when it presents itself, as I expect it will early on.
My only hard rules are: 2 RB's by round 4, 1 WR by round 3, No QB's/DEF/K's before round 6
Like others, my league typically goes RB heavy in the first two to three rounds. I already know the following picks will be gone by the time it gets to me at #8. LT, LJ, SA, and the guy who has #7 said that if Barber falls that far he will take him. So between the #4-#6 picks, I expect three of the following to be gone:
* Barber- will be gone. Strangely, I am not as high on him as most people are, so this is fine by me.
* Portis (very likely to be gone). Obviously if he slipped to #8, he would be my 1st choice.
* SJax (likely to be gone). If Portis was gone at #8, and he slipped, he would be my choice.
* Jordan - If the big 4 plus Portis and SJax are gone, I would be likely to take him over Rudi if available
* Rudi- I like the prospects of him slipping to 2.05. He is my #8 ranked RB. I will take him at#8 if all of my other RB's are gone, but history has told me that is unlikely.
A lot of guys in this league seem to get cheatsheet-itis on draft day. They have their cheatsheets from some magazine or other website and they follow it strictly for the first two rounds. This plays into my hand. I expect that at least person (either 11 or 12) will try to go WR/WR on the turn, as it has happened in 5 of the last 6 years, That would leave the following RB's to be picked somewhere between 1.09 and 2.04 (a total of 8 picks). I fully expect them all to be gone.
* Edge- I have him ranked as my #11 RB. I am more wary than others of his change of scenery.
* Westbrook- his recpts + recvg TD's make him valuable. If he makes it to 2.05 I would have to take him and throw my RB/WR strategy out, plucking up value as it presents itself in the following rounds.
* Caddy- I am assuming he will be gone at 2.05, but I would pass on him in favor of sticking by my RB/WR strategy, as long as one of my top four WR's are atill available.
* Ronnie Brown- I love his upside this year.
Throw in these four guys, Manning, plus the top three WR's, and it is pick 2.05 for me. That leaves me the likely choices of a WR in the neighborhood of Holt/Harrison/Moss. If Steve Smith, Chad Johnson, or TO are here I will snatch them up and not look back. Otherwise, I would probably take whatever WR is available as long he isn't on the same team as my RB1.
Fourteen picks go by and it's 3.08. If someone in the neighborhood of FWP/JJ/Droughns/McGahee or even Kevin Jones (who I am higher on than most this year) is here I would go RB. Otherwise, the RB's are too similar in value for me, and I would go WR with the expectation to pick up value at RB in the 4th. I personally think one of those RB's will be there, though, as few, if any, of the people drafting in slots #1-#7 are going to go RB/RB/RB in the first three rounds. I will say it's likely that I could get JJ here. This is also fine by me, as I like him more than most this year.
At 4.05, I fully expect one of the following WR's to be available: Driver/Burress/Roy Williams/Branch/S. Moss. I would love to get Driver here, but I think he'll be gone. I'll say low end and take Branch.
At 5.08, I am taking my third RB unless extraordinary value at some other position falls. I would love to get Bush or Dunn here, but if I can't, I would think someone like Foster/Addai/Chester Taylor/Dillon might be.
At 6.05, I am fairly confident that someone like Rod Smith/Derrick Mason/Coles will be here at WR, and I would take them. At QB I would think the likes of Brooks/Vick/Culpepper would be there, but I will let them go by to get better depth at WR. If good value slips at QB here I will take it, though.
So to put it all together, I am looking at something like this. Of course the names might change, but the quality of player at each pick is right around the level I expect to be available. I think on at least 2 or 3 of these picks, I have a great chance of getting a higher quality player at the same position.
1.08- Rudi Johnson
2.05- Randy Moss
3.08- Julius Jones
4.05- Deion Branch
5.08- Deshaun Foster
6.05- Rod Smith
I feel a bit more confident this year at getting decent late value at WR and QB. So if I get my fourth RB by round 8, I think I can cherry pick the remaining positions and fill out a very strong roster.