barackdhouse
Footballguy
WTF are you talking about? You said GB was 33% this year. I provided 6 years and you call *that* cherry picking. My God man.
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A deep(er) dive into the 4th and 8 decision by GB in the NFC title game (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter barackdhouse
- Start date
Deamon
Footballguy
Why did you pick 6 and not 5 or 7? Because year 6 was a great year for them.
And you boost 31 percent all the way to 40 because it's Rodgers (who just missed 3 straight from same distance)
So again, try the 31 percent and try 5 yrs of 2pc and let's see data. Not sure why you won't do this. It should include the most recent 5 yrs. Not a random 6 yrs not including this year. Jeez man.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
You're not very good at reading either.
No I didn't - read below:
Deamon
Footballguy
Personal shots now. Nice.
Ok you picked 5 yrs. 2015-2019. Choose the more accurate 5 yrs 2016-2020. Drops the number a lot.
And again, 40% is way way too high to convert 4th and 8. So use the actual data without your guesses for a "Rodgers Rate"
It’s easily arguable that kicking it is the more aggressive “faith in the team” move. Kick it, get a stop, get the ball back, go win in regulation. At least comparable to a low % shot at tying it right there. Either way you need execution from your offense and defense.
Deamon
Footballguy
Exactly. You need the stop either way, and it's more likely to get it when they're wasting the clock than trying to score points. So why not put faith in Rodgers to drive the field and go to the SB rather than put faith in him to execute a single 8 yard play that he just failed 3 times in a row? And another in a coin flip one play to get the 2pc? And that's just to get to OT? And that's JUST if TB doesn't drive and score?
If I have faith in my MVP QB, I'd rather him down 5 at midfield and 1st down, then down 8 on 4th and 8 on the 8.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
I rather have him take a shot 4th and 8 and then get another shot for a TD later if they fail on the 4th and 8
Deamon
Footballguy
Anarchy99
Footballguy
If the Bucs declined the penalty, GB best case would have needed 70 yards and a yards and a TD with no timeouts and 40ish seconds left to play. It could have come down to one play at the buzzer. At that point which you rather have had? One play to get 8 yards and a 2 point conversion for a tie? Or one play for 35 yards to win? And I still think GB still could have gotten a stop if TB was trying to score, so GB could have only needed 35 yards and a FG to win in regulation had they tied the game.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Indeed. I like to put the ball in my HOF MVP QBs hands on a 4th and 8, and give him another chance in case of a failure. I prefer that over what I would imagine my offense views as gutless and incredibly frustrating.
Hell maybe they get 6 yards, then get a safety. Who knows. Crazier things have happened. Maybe a defensive penalty.
Deamon
Footballguy
I don't play hindsight games, the decision was the decision at the time. I disagree it would have been 1 play for 35 yards and the win. Again, the odds of that 4th and 8 were very very low. Combined with needing the 2, the stop vs a motivated-to-score brady, and getting into FG range (or else winning in OT), I personally feel that the FG was the best chance for them to win that game. The numbers in this thread back up the decision to kick the FG when you take away the overly inflated 40% and 67% that are in there.
Deamon
Footballguy
Chances are rodgers misses the 4th and 8 though. He struggled on the first 3 downs, what makes you think he would hit the last one? I don't wanna give Brady the ball back in a tie game with a trip to the SB on the line. The guy that's 9-4 in conf championship games vs the guy that's 1-4 in conf championship games. I also don't like those numbers when you're looking at an OT game.... I don't want to go to OT vs Brady, nor do I want to give him a shot to drive for the game winning FG.
Maybe LaFleur thought Brady would get the 40 yards needed for them to win the game. His 9-4 record would certainly point towards him getting that. His plan was to give his offense the chance to win the game, not rely on the defense to stop a motivated-to-score Brady.
If I'm LaFleur, I want Tampa to run the ball 4 times, and get the ball back down 5, with 1:45 left on the clock and a time out, and Rodgers driving for the win. I think GB wins in that situation.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Your numbers and your opinion determined that it “back up the decision to go for it.” That’s fine, but that doesn’t make it a clear cut fact. The computer models said it was either a toss up or going for it was slightly more desirable.
Was Brady not motivated when he threw interceptions on three straight drives? I only ask because TB moved the ball better when they were trying to run out the clock than when he was actually trying to move the ball down field and score.
All of this is a pointless exercise, as we have no way of knowing what would have happened for would be plays and decisions that never happened.
Deamon
Footballguy
As are the numbers in the OP, and they're much higher than using pure statistics.
I never said it was clear cut. I think it is close. But most of the people in the go-for-it camp are absolutely blasting Lafleur and saying it's clear cut that he should have gone for it. I like that he was aggressive and trusted they'd give Rodgers the ball on his own 30, with 1:45 to go an a time out down 5. I love that scenario. I don't like needing a bunch of things in a row to happen, all of which are unlikely.
Sure Brady was motivated then. But I also believe that he is clutch and would have found a way.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Because he is Aaron Rodgers and has made hundreds of beautiful plays in tough spots.
If you dont think he can convert a 4th and 8 what makes you think he can convert a game winning touchdown drive with limited time?
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Deamon
Footballguy
I believe 1st and 10 with 2min left and a timeout is better than 4th and 8 with one play (where you also need a 2pc + Stopping Brady again + winning in OT).
Hell, I'd probably take Rodgers 1st and 10 from his 30 with 2 min left over 4th and 8 for him. And that's not even needing all that other stuff to happen.
I give Rodgers a 35% chance to score with 1st and 10 from his 30. = WIN
Vs Rodgers a 30% chance to score from the 8 X a 60% chance for 2pc X 60% chance to top Brady X 50% to win OT. = WIN
Stinkin Ref
IBL Representative
Deamon
Footballguy
Exactly. Because converting an unlikely 4th and 8, and then getting a coin flip 2pc, and then stopping Brady from gaining 40 yards and going to OT, would have been a miracle.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I looked up Brady’s playoff record in the situations that pertained here. There were 4 times he had the ball with two minutes remaining in a tie game. In three of them, he led the offense to a FG. In the other one, he drove for a TD. In only one game did the opponent have a chance, as he left 1:10 on the clock in one of the games NE scored a FG.
There were now 8 times he had a one score lead (including GB game) with the ball and two minutes remaining. He won all of them. Six times he was able to run out the clock. In the other two games, NE punted and the opponent got the ball, once with 46 seconds remaining and once with 4 seconds remaining. The game that had 46 seconds left was the first SB game against PHI, and the Eagles started the last drive at their own 4 yard line.
All that pretty much confirms what we already know . . . that GB was in deep trouble no matter what they did.
There were now 8 times he had a one score lead (including GB game) with the ball and two minutes remaining. He won all of them. Six times he was able to run out the clock. In the other two games, NE punted and the opponent got the ball, once with 46 seconds remaining and once with 4 seconds remaining. The game that had 46 seconds left was the first SB game against PHI, and the Eagles started the last drive at their own 4 yard line.
All that pretty much confirms what we already know . . . that GB was in deep trouble no matter what they did.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I also looked up GB/ Rodgers performance in similar situations to the game with TB. Most of Rodgers late game theatrics happened in regular season games.
In 2009, GB scored a game tying TD against Kurt Warner and the Cardinals. The Pack didn't get the ball back in regulation and ARI won in OT.
In 2014, GB trailed SEA by 3 with 1:33 remaining. Rodgers got a game tying FG but SEA won in OT.
In 2015, Rodgers got the ball down 7 with 1:55 remaining and tied the game on a 41 yard Hail Mary on the last play of regulation. But lost in OT.
In 2016, they were tied with DAL and GB took possession with 35 seconds remaining. GB gained 43 yards before kicking a game winning FG.
In 2009, GB scored a game tying TD against Kurt Warner and the Cardinals. The Pack didn't get the ball back in regulation and ARI won in OT.
In 2014, GB trailed SEA by 3 with 1:33 remaining. Rodgers got a game tying FG but SEA won in OT.
In 2015, Rodgers got the ball down 7 with 1:55 remaining and tied the game on a 41 yard Hail Mary on the last play of regulation. But lost in OT.
In 2016, they were tied with DAL and GB took possession with 35 seconds remaining. GB gained 43 yards before kicking a game winning FG.
Deamon
Footballguy
Yep, I think the odds of him getting that 40 yards for the winning FG, even if GB miraculously converted that Td AND the 2pc are pretty high. I don't want to hope for a 1 in 5 shot to tie the game and give Brady the ball back trying to score to win. Much rather take my chances that I can stop them running out the clock and need 1 MVP Rodgers drive for the win.
CletiusMaximus
Footballguy
Kicking the field goal in the situation is the aggressive approach. Going for it shows a lack of faith in the defense and a desire to play for OT.Cobbler1 said:
Truebluey
Footballguy
The more disturbing thing for the team that hasn't been discussed as much is the lack of communication.
Rodgers interviewed after the game admitted he thought they had 4 plays to score the TD in that situation.
Is he a) throwing his coach under the bus by lying, or
b) His coach and he didn't discuss a crucial decision before a crucial series?
Either way, things don't look good in GB.
Rodgers interviewed after the game admitted he thought they had 4 plays to score the TD in that situation.
Is he a) throwing his coach under the bus by lying, or
b) His coach and he didn't discuss a crucial decision before a crucial series?
Either way, things don't look good in GB.
DropKick
Footballguy
I was surprised (not shocked) by the decision to kick a FG but quickly considered the thought process behind it. As demonstrated here, the analytics could go either way depending on the probabilities assigned to various outcomes. Kicking the FG, if not aggressive, is certainly contrarian as it goes against the popular opinion of trying to tie the game.
What I find intriguing is the change in thought process if the game conditions were slightly different. Keep in mind that earlier in the game, down by 5, the Packers failed on a 2 point conversion. At the time, I remarked that I understood the desire to get within 3 but, with this much time left, I might kick the extra point. At least this keeps you within 7 if Tampa were to manage a FG, which is ultimately what happened. Had Green Bay trailed by only 7 as the game wound down, I suspect they try for the TD. Giving the ball back to Brady or the spectre of OT are not a concern. Would anyone attempt a FG in this situation?
What if the ball were on the 3 yard line? Obviously, more play selection and even a scramble is in play when that close to the goal line. As mentioned, Rodgers actually appeared to have a shot to rush it in on 3rd down. But things do close quickly on a short field and he probably assumed he'd have another chance on 4th down.
How about the 15 yard line? Certainly, more people would accept the FG decision as the distance to the goal line increased. For people on either side of the decision, what is the threshold for changing your mind?
The game clock was at a pivotal point in the game - just outside the two minute warning. A point that was possibly in Green Bay's favor or perhaps moot as it could transpire during the kick-off return. Of course, more time on the clock would reinforce the FG decision but how much less time would have forced Green Bay to try for the TD?
One would like to think the NFL teams are prepared for the various down, distance, score and clock scenarios. I suspect they are to a degree but I also think, given the dynamics of the game, they can be forced into some quick decisions. The mechanics behind coaching staff's approach to real time play calling and decision making would be fascinating.
kittenmittens
Footballguy
Espns analytics are really bad. They are bad at everything and it's all designed for a 5th grade reading level. Did they even show their work?
I doubt everything ESPN does or analyzes. Their track record is garbage.
I'm sure the math is right, but I'm not sure the way they decided what to calculate had the proper nuance. Espn doesn't care about nuance. Probably using data from 1985 alongside modern data in their stuff.
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barackdhouse
Footballguy
Changing the number on how likely it is for GB to stop Tampa and get the ball back, if the game is tied, and bumping it down to 20% instead of 40% changes the final numbers* to
GOING FOR THE TD WIN% = 6.14% vs 6.09% for going for the FG.
And converting the TD+2 raises the win% to 18.3% instead of 6.5% for converting the FG. Read that again. Converting the FG. Gets you to 6.5%.
*final numbers as per this one tweak, this one additional refinement - could certainly happen again.
GOING FOR THE TD WIN% = 6.14% vs 6.09% for going for the FG.
And converting the TD+2 raises the win% to 18.3% instead of 6.5% for converting the FG. Read that again. Converting the FG. Gets you to 6.5%.
*final numbers as per this one tweak, this one additional refinement - could certainly happen again.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Yeah I didn't want to muddy this thing more than it already is but I had the same thought at the time. I think I would have just kicked the extra pointer at the time. And I agree I think they are more likely to go for it if they are down 7, with the intention that they will go for 2 for the win if they get it.
I still say the odds of Rodgers drawing an offside penalty is much greater than zero. I don't feel like going down the rabbit hole any further with it but 4th and 3 was a real possibility on the next play.
Stinkin Ref
IBL Representative
really can't just throw out "unlikely" and "coin flip" etc like it is the gospel.....GB getting 8 yards then going for 2 gives you a shot from only the 8 and then teams have tons of 2 point plays these days they are ready to employ....worst case TB has the ball at the 8 and you have your "4" timeouts, get the 3 and out stop you were planning on (if you don't in three its over anyway) and another shot a getting the TD you were also going to need and then the two pointer....IMO I'll take two shots at the TD and two pointer....cause if you get the second shot, it means you got the stop you needed (anyway) with decent field position and time still on the clock....Deamon said:
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Deamon
Footballguy
Ok coin flip I'll give you should prob be 60/40. I say unlikely because the odds of converting that td AND the 2pc is under 25% so I consider a 1 in 4 shot "unlikely".
We're going in circles here. Both scenarios you need to stop Tampa the next drive. I think it's a lot easier to do so when Tom doesn't need 40 yards for a trip to the sb. And that's still IF that 1 in 4 shot hits, and even then it's ot.
If you're counting on the bucs stop, I'd WAY rather Rodgers with 2 min and 1st and 10 with the ball at his 30 for the win, instead of Rodgers 1st and 10 at his 40, needing a td AND 2pc just to go to OT. I personally believe that option A is SO much better than option B, that it's not worth a 1 in 4 (or whatever you want to give it, but it's far under 50 percent to get both.... 1 in 4 is generous) to not need option B.
Stinkin Ref
IBL Representative
I guess my thing is that all these %'s people are throwing out really don't mean #### to me....we have no idea....for me its knowing your team and the other team and your gut sometimes....my "only 25% chance" may actually feel like "90%" at the time.... if that makes sense....as a GB fan I would be pissed....as a TB fan I'm glad they didn't go for it....I think if you asked most they would agree....I think most in that situation would roll the dice at hitting that one out of four chance with Rodgers then the three out four he doesn't (if thats some computer %'s BS or whatever).....
you can always say you gave it a shot and put your head on the pillow at night .....(and you still would have had a bullet in your holster with getting the "stop" and another shot to do it again)....its just IMO but not going for it opens up all kinds of questions and second guessing....if you go for it and it doesn't work, yeah you are still second guessed, but you "showed some onions" and went for it....kicking the FG puts your destiny "for sure" in somebody elses hand.....going for it and then trying to get the 2 somewhat lets you control things moving forward if you are successful....yeah TB still may beat you, but you went down swinging so to speak....
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Deamon
Footballguy
I think they "gave it a shot" by kicking the FG and going for the WIN and not the TIE (and then stopping Brady from getting 40 yards). Again, this is one of those things if it works, he'd be a genius. The likely thing that would happen (and yes we can say likely), is that they miss the TD and lose the game. I like the call, I hate hindsight fans who use the result as part of the argument. Coach took his best shot in his mind to win and it didn't work out, but the other option wouldn't have worked out likely either.
You're entitled to your opinion, but this is mine, so nothing more really to say on it.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
That's always a fun way to look at it. How would you feel about it if you were a fan of the other team.
As a Tampa fan I would have been happy as heck to see them kicking a FG there
As a Tampa fan I would have been happy as heck to see them kicking a FG there
Stinkin Ref
IBL Representative
hey Deamon....not really "arguing" with you so to speak as it is obvious there are two sides to this bad boy....I guess the one thing I would disagree with in your last post is the bolded.....just because they go for it and get the 2 point conversion, doesn't mean they are just playing "for the tie"....if they were successful....yes they are tied, but they still have the "3-4" timeouts to get the "stop" they were going to need anyway....and then they can go down and score to get the win.....it actually would have set them up pretty well if TB throws a couple of incompletions or something trying to win the game themselves....going for the "tie" to begin with is also an attempt or different pathway to actually get the W.....it wasn't like they were going to quit trying to win the game if they had gone for it and got the 2 pointer....not only would they have tied it up, but they put t he pressure on TB to move the ball or do something other then get 10 yards...
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Deamon
Footballguy
Sure. But my opinion is that Tom likely gains 40 yards and Tampa wins, even if that unlikely scenario of a td/2pc happens. (Using likely as over 50 percent and unlikely as under)
So if the above things are true (not saying they are, just saying I believe that would have happened) then kicking that fg was by far the right thing to do. And me and stats agree that the 2pc+td on 4th and 8 (where he just failed at it 3 straight times) agree on that.
