A little dynasty TE discussion... (1 Viewer)

[cstu]

Where did this sudden wave of Kelce hype come from? He was a decent prospect last season, but he played in one game as a rookie and had a microfracture surgery on his knee. Even if he's destined to become a good player, it likely won't happen this season. He's essentially a rookie.

Sure, you'd like him to be a little less stiff but he's far from lumbering. He's got the athleticism to be a receiver and he was a great blocker so he'll see the field a lot.

As for the microfracture, his was a little less serious since his knee was only causing him pain when getting down into his stance, not during other activities. If I can overlook all the surgeries Gronk* has had I can overlook his.

*Not saying he's the next Gronk but he's a similar sort of player.

 

[Sabertooth]

I've really like Kelce going back to last year to be honest. But with Niklas and Amaro going earlier in the NFL draft this season, I don't really see how he's proven himself to be worth more than them. They are obviously higher rated prospects so I slot him in behind them because he was hurt and because he has done nothing to improve his stock. That said, I do still like him as a TE3.

 

[saintfool]

Where did this sudden wave of Kelce hype come from? He was a decent prospect last season, but he played in one game as a rookie and had a microfracture surgery on his knee. Even if he's destined to become a good player, it likely won't happen this season. He's essentially a rookie.

They have to have *some* other targets for Smith? Charles and Bowe can't carry that alone. I'd trust Kelce over McCluster's replacement going into the season at least.

Wasn't that all true last year too? I don't remember him getting so much hype back then, though he did go fairly high (mid-late 2nd) in most of my rookie drafts.

I had him in one 1.5 PPR for TE league and traded him for Mike Williams a couple months ago. Then the new owner turned around and traded him for Gates and a 2015 1st (dev league). I had previously offered him to a different owner for Pitta straight up with no luck. Wish I had known he had some believers out there. I would've tried to get a lot more for him.

Just wondering why all of a sudden there is excitement for him again. His rookie year was a disaster. He already had a reputation for being brittle and now the microfracture to boot. Are people pumping him up on Twitter and/or did one of the prominent FF sites run a hype piece for him? It just seems like all of a sudden there's a buzz growing.

i think everyone was expecting KC to address the WRs in the draft, especially considering the depth available there, but nope. Kelce isn't annointed but he has more opportunity now than last year. it's not hype to say that much in late May, is it? his path to FF relevance - especially as everyone is scrambling to find the next great TE talent - is not insurmountable.

 

[Sabertooth]

Where did this sudden wave of Kelce hype come from? He was a decent prospect last season, but he played in one game as a rookie and had a microfracture surgery on his knee. Even if he's destined to become a good player, it likely won't happen this season. He's essentially a rookie.

They have to have *some* other targets for Smith? Charles and Bowe can't carry that alone. I'd trust Kelce over McCluster's replacement going into the season at least.

Wasn't that all true last year too? I don't remember him getting so much hype back then, though he did go fairly high (mid-late 2nd) in most of my rookie drafts.

I had him in one 1.5 PPR for TE league and traded him for Mike Williams a couple months ago. Then the new owner turned around and traded him for Gates and a 2015 1st (dev league). I had previously offered him to a different owner for Pitta straight up with no luck. Wish I had known he had some believers out there. I would've tried to get a lot more for him.

Just wondering why all of a sudden there is excitement for him again. His rookie year was a disaster. He already had a reputation for being brittle and now the microfracture to boot. Are people pumping him up on Twitter and/or did one of the prominent FF sites run a hype piece for him? It just seems like all of a sudden there's a buzz growing.

i think everyone was expecting KC to address the WRs in the draft, especially considering the depth available there, but nope. Kelce isn't annointed but he has more opportunity now than last year. it's not hype to say that much in late May, is it? his path to FF relevance - especially as everyone is scrambling to find the next great TE talent - is not insurmountable.

I think his opportunity is the same as last year.

 

[EBF]

Where did this sudden wave of Kelce hype come from? He was a decent prospect last season, but he played in one game as a rookie and had a microfracture surgery on his knee. Even if he's destined to become a good player, it likely won't happen this season. He's essentially a rookie.

Sure, you'd like him to be a little less stiff but he's far from lumbering. He's got the athleticism to be a receiver and he was a great blocker so he'll see the field a lot.

He may be explosive, but he doesn't look very fluid. Those are two different things. I don't think he has anywhere near the precise footwork or economical movement of a typical WR. He does have some similarities to Gronk, another big/fast guy with sloppy movement skills. That was a comparison I made last year and I think it captures a lot of the good/bad of Kelce, as he's also injury-prone like Gronk due to his playing style. If he scores anywhere near that level, people will be thrilled with their investment. Lots of question marks with him though. He was a one year wonder in college and all his success came as an over-aged player. He's already 24 and turns 25 in October. There's upside. I won't deny that. I actually DON'T think he's overrated at his current consensus market price. DLF has him at TE21 and that's not a price that will get you burned if he flops.

I guess I'm just more surprised by what seems like a sudden surge in optimism. If anything, the arrow is slightly down compared with a year ago.

 

[EBF]

Two other observations from glancing at the DLF TE rankings:

- Ausberry is nowhere to be found in their top 50. Can't stress enough that this guy needs to be rostered in every league where TE have reasonable value. Not only does he potentially have the inside track to a starting job, but he's not some boring low upside guy with a max TE2 ceiling. At his pro day he ran a 4.48 at 243 pounds, jumped out of the gym, and had a good three cone time. I've been keeping tabs on him ever since this catch. The stiff-arm is what will draw the oohs and aahs, but it's the light feet afterwards that impress me most.

- Richard Rodgers at TE48. I'm no fan of Rodgers. I don't like him. Putting that aside though, I would've thought that a third round TE going into the Green Bay juggernaut would be generating a lot more excitement. Nobody wants this guy in my rookie drafts. Maybe it's the Lyerla factor, but he was slipping even before that was official. Just seems like a guy where his draft slot/situation might force your hand in making a pick because he's falling so far in drafts. Not totally unlike Knile Davis last year, whom nobody wanted in rookie drafts even though he was a third round RB.

 

[FUBAR]

Another way to look at it:

Of all the 1k receiving seasons by a player 35 or older:

25% (4/16) averaged 17+ ypr

44% (7/16) averaged 15+ ypr

Of all the 1k receiving seasons by a player age 33-34:

19% (7/37) averaged 17+ ypr

41% (15/37) averaged 15+ ypr

Of all the 1k receiving seasons by a player age 31-32:

15% (11/71) averaged 17+ ypr

39% (28/71) averaged 15+ ypr

Of all the 1k receiving seasons by a player age 30:

8% (4/49) averaged 17+ ypr

31% (15/49) averaged 15+ ypr

The two simplest ways to interpret that data are that either receivers get faster / become more of a deep threat as they age, or that the players who are naturally faster / bigger deep threats will age better than players who are not.

how many of those older guys played for top QBs?

That's one thing going for Witten right now. Romo despite his reputation for choking, is a pretty good QB.

 

[ShaHBucks]

Ladarius green seems to be overrated. I don't see how you can extrapolate this great player from his limited production

I think he has a chance to be great, but I had an owner reject Zac Stacy for L. Green straight up. He's one of those guys with nothing but prospects on his team who he considers untouchable. I found that odd considering I'm willing to overpay for Green.

 

[FUBAR]

Where did this sudden wave of Kelce hype come from? He was a decent prospect last season, but he played in one game as a rookie and had a microfracture surgery on his knee. Even if he's destined to become a good player, it likely won't happen this season. He's essentially a rookie.

Sure, you'd like him to be a little less stiff but he's far from lumbering. He's got the athleticism to be a receiver and he was a great blocker so he'll see the field a lot.

He may be explosive, but he doesn't look very fluid. Those are two different things. I don't think he has anywhere near the precise footwork or economical movement of a typical WR. He does have some similarities to Gronk, another big/fast guy with sloppy movement skills. That was a comparison I made last year and I think it captures a lot of the good/bad of Kelce, as he's also injury-prone like Gronk due to his playing style. If he scores anywhere near that level, people will be thrilled with their investment. Lots of question marks with him though. He was a one year wonder in college and all his success came as an over-aged player. He's already 24 and turns 25 in October. There's upside. I won't deny that. I actually DON'T think he's overrated at his current consensus market price. DLF has him at TE21 and that's not a price that will get you burned if he flops.

I guess I'm just more surprised by what seems like a sudden surge in optimism. If anything, the arrow is slightly down compared with a year ago.

I take the interest as just being guys looking to buy potential on the cheap.

 

[DexterDew]

GB's TE situation is clear as mud. Lyerla is the hot name. Didn't love Rodgers coming out so took Niklas as an end of bench stash. I think Quarless will be the de facto starter, but maybe they run more 4 WR sets with Lacy (note to self: check GB's offense tendencies for personnel)

I think GB is hoping Rodgers or Lyerla step up to be the starter in 2015

 

[Bruce Hammond]

I've really like Kelce going back to last year to be honest. But with Niklas and Amaro going earlier in the NFL draft this season, I don't really see how he's proven himself to be worth more than them. They are obviously higher rated prospects so I slot him in behind them because he was hurt and because he has done nothing to improve his stock. That said, I do still like him as a TE3.

Guys who draft Niklas simply because of his NFL draft spot don't understand. He's not going to be in a pass catching role and to put him ahead of Kelce in any ranking is a big mistake.

 

[ConnSKINS26]

Ladarius green seems to be overrated. I don't see how you can extrapolate this great player from his limited production

I think he has a chance to be great, but I had an owner reject Zac Stacy for L. Green straight up. He's one of those guys with nothing but prospects on his team who he considers untouchable. I found that odd considering I'm willing to overpay for Green.

I don't think that's an odd decision in really any format, unless you must start 2 RB's. But even then I can understand it, especially if it's TE premium.

I think it would have to be a start-2 RB, non-PPR league for me to consider that a clear overpay.

 

[jurb26]

I've really like Kelce going back to last year to be honest. But with Niklas and Amaro going earlier in the NFL draft this season, I don't really see how he's proven himself to be worth more than them. They are obviously higher rated prospects so I slot him in behind them because he was hurt and because he has done nothing to improve his stock. That said, I do still like him as a TE3.

Guys who draft Niklas simply because of his NFL draft spot don't understand. He's not going to be in a pass catching role and to put him ahead of Kelce in any ranking is a big mistake.

Roles can change fast in the NFL. Especially if a player demonstrates an ability to do something well. I believe that will be the case with Niklas. He's a very good receiver who was learning on the fly a lot in college.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Another way to look at it:

Of all the 1k receiving seasons by a player 35 or older:

25% (4/16) averaged 17+ ypr

44% (7/16) averaged 15+ ypr

Of all the 1k receiving seasons by a player age 33-34:

19% (7/37) averaged 17+ ypr

41% (15/37) averaged 15+ ypr

Of all the 1k receiving seasons by a player age 31-32:

15% (11/71) averaged 17+ ypr

39% (28/71) averaged 15+ ypr

Of all the 1k receiving seasons by a player age 30:

8% (4/49) averaged 17+ ypr

31% (15/49) averaged 15+ ypr

The two simplest ways to interpret that data are that either receivers get faster / become more of a deep threat as they age, or that the players who are naturally faster / bigger deep threats will age better than players who are not.

how many of those older guys played for top QBs?

That's one thing going for Witten right now. Romo despite his reputation for choking, is a pretty good QB.

A full list of player names can be found in the links in this post.

 

[cstu]

I've really like Kelce going back to last year to be honest. But with Niklas and Amaro going earlier in the NFL draft this season, I don't really see how he's proven himself to be worth more than them. They are obviously higher rated prospects so I slot him in behind them because he was hurt and because he has done nothing to improve his stock. That said, I do still like him as a TE3.

Guys who draft Niklas simply because of his NFL draft spot don't understand. He's not going to be in a pass catching role and to put him ahead of Kelce in any ranking is a big mistake.

Roles can change fast in the NFL. Especially if a player demonstrates an ability to do something well. I believe that will be the case with Niklas. He's a very good receiver who was learning on the fly a lot in college.

“The tight end for me, I’m old school. You’ve got to block first and catch passes,” Arians said.

“That’s why I loved (Steelers TE) Heath Miller. I still think Heath Miller’s the best tight end in the National Football League, not because he catches 90 passes, (but) because he blocks big defensive ends, and he catches about 60-70 passes.

“The guys that line up as wide receivers might get tagged as wide receivers. But, you know, tight ends for me block first, catch second.”

 

[ShaHBucks]

Ladarius green seems to be overrated. I don't see how you can extrapolate this great player from his limited production

I think he has a chance to be great, but I had an owner reject Zac Stacy for L. Green straight up. He's one of those guys with nothing but prospects on his team who he considers untouchable. I found that odd considering I'm willing to overpay for Green.

I don't think that's an odd decision in really any format, unless you must start 2 RB's. But even then I can understand it, especially if it's TE premium.I think it would have to be a start-2 RB, non-PPR league for me to consider that a clear overpay.

Well there's a little more dynamics to it. Start 1/2/1 w 2 Flex, 1.25 ppr for TE's so it's not really a premium. It was one of those deals where we both trade strengths/weakness. He has J. Thomas. The closest thing he has to a starting RB is B. Pierce. The last time I delt for Green I gave Lattimore straight up in a team I took over. I figured Stacy had more market value currently.I ended up dealing Harvin/Stacy for Gronk/Moreno the next morning so I don't mind.

 

[JackReacher]

I've really like Kelce going back to last year to be honest. But with Niklas and Amaro going earlier in the NFL draft this season, I don't really see how he's proven himself to be worth more than them. They are obviously higher rated prospects so I slot him in behind them because he was hurt and because he has done nothing to improve his stock. That said, I do still like him as a TE3.

Guys who draft Niklas simply because of his NFL draft spot don't understand. He's not going to be in a pass catching role and to put him ahead of Kelce in any ranking is a big mistake.

Roles can change fast in the NFL. Especially if a player demonstrates an ability to do something well. I believe that will be the case with Niklas. He's a very good receiver who was learning on the fly a lot in college.

The tight end for me, Im old school. Youve got to block first and catch passes, Arians said.

Thats why I loved (Steelers TE) Heath Miller. I still think Heath Millers the best tight end in the National Football League, not because he catches 90 passes, (but) because he blocks big defensive ends, and he catches about 60-70 passes.

The guys that line up as wide receivers might get tagged as wide receivers. But, you know, tight ends for me block first, catch second.

Most FF players know this and NIklas can be had for cheap because of that. Like Jurb, I am bullish on NIklas prospects. He only played TE for two years and averaged 16 yards per catch last season. That's heady stuff for a guy his size. Allen did just fine as a rookie for Arians at Indy. I think when Arians sees what he has in NIklas, he will exploit it.ETA: We would all be thrilled to add a TE who catches 60-70 passes, especially in a TE premium league

 

[Sabertooth]

Ladarius Green just went through our entire rookie draft and was not selected. I own Gronk, Eifert, and now Ebron. Is he worth dumping a guy like Justin Hunter or Hakeem Nicks for with that kind of depth already in place? I don't have much faith in Gronk long term, but how do Eifert and Ebron stack up to Green. Kelce was not selected either. Not surprising really as most teams only carry 1 TE in this 10 team QB premium league.

 

[Eminence]

I like Eifert, Green, Bennett, and Ausberry for cheap options that can breakout.

Rudolph too if Teddy starts.

 

[cstu]

Ladarius Green just went through our entire rookie draft and was not selected. I own Gronk, Eifert, and now Ebron. Is he worth dumping a guy like Justin Hunter or Hakeem Nicks for with that kind of depth already in place? I don't have much faith in Gronk long term, but how do Eifert and Ebron stack up to Green. Kelce was not selected either. Not surprising really as most teams only carry 1 TE in this 10 team QB premium league.

If you can flex a TE I'd rather have Green over Nicks (that's really the worst player you own?).

 

[huskermadhatter]

Any love for C.J. Fiedorowicz? I think he went to a pretty good situation long term. He's a more well rounded talent IMO than the existing rostered TEs for Houston.

 

[Biabreakable]

I've really like Kelce going back to last year to be honest. But with Niklas and Amaro going earlier in the NFL draft this season, I don't really see how he's proven himself to be worth more than them. They are obviously higher rated prospects so I slot him in behind them because he was hurt and because he has done nothing to improve his stock. That said, I do still like him as a TE3.

Guys who draft Niklas simply because of his NFL draft spot don't understand. He's not going to be in a pass catching role and to put him ahead of Kelce in any ranking is a big mistake.

Roles can change fast in the NFL. Especially if a player demonstrates an ability to do something well. I believe that will be the case with Niklas. He's a very good receiver who was learning on the fly a lot in college.

The tight end for me, Im old school. Youve got to block first and catch passes, Arians said.

Thats why I loved (Steelers TE) Heath Miller. I still think Heath Millers the best tight end in the National Football League, not because he catches 90 passes, (but) because he blocks big defensive ends, and he catches about 60-70 passes.

The guys that line up as wide receivers might get tagged as wide receivers. But, you know, tight ends for me block first, catch second.

Most FF players know this and NIklas can be had for cheap because of that. Like Jurb, I am bullish on NIklas prospects. He only played TE for two years and averaged 16 yards per catch last season. That's heady stuff for a guy his size. Allen did just fine as a rookie for Arians at Indy. I think when Arians sees what he has in NIklas, he will exploit it.ETA: We would all be thrilled to add a TE who catches 60-70 passes, especially in a TE premium league

I am not optimistic about Niklas being able to reach your projection target.

Looking at Arians NFL coaching history and use of the TE 1 in his offense-

Heath Miller 1st round 30th overall pick in 2005

2007 16 61tg 47rec 566yds 7TD
2008 14 65tg 48rec 514yds 3TD
2009 16 98tg 76rec 789yds 6TD
2010 14 67tg 42rec 512yds 2TD
2011 16 74tg 51rec 631yds 2TD

Played in 15.2 of the games over 5 seasons.

Averaged 73 targets/season 52.8 rec/season

4 TD/season

Then his use of TE with the Colts and Cardinals-

Dwayne Allen

2012 15 66tg 45 521 3

Rob Housler

2013 57tg 39 454 1

So that averages out to

55.28tg - 66.6tg - 73tg /season

46.6rec - 49.71rec - 52.8 rec/season

3.4 TD/season


The TE1 has averaged 49.71 receptions over the 7 seasons that Arians has been a OC or HC of the offense. If you get rid of the best and worst the TE1 averaged 46.6 catches. If you look just at Heath Miller as your best possible outcome for Niklas he averaged 52.8 receptions.


2013 18 TE had 70 or more targets Rob Housler had 57 targets.

2012 24 TE had 70 or more targets. Dwayne Allen had 66

2011 22 TE had 70 or more targets. Heath Miller had 74

16 TE had 50+ receptions in 2013
18 in 2012
17 in 2011

You could hope for the upside target of Heath Millers best season under Arians in 2009 for Niklas, but it is more likely that he will only provide TE 2 value and a bit below your 60-70 reception target for him.

 

[Sabertooth]

Ladarius Green just went through our entire rookie draft and was not selected. I own Gronk, Eifert, and now Ebron. Is he worth dumping a guy like Justin Hunter or Hakeem Nicks for with that kind of depth already in place? I don't have much faith in Gronk long term, but how do Eifert and Ebron stack up to Green. Kelce was not selected either. Not surprising really as most teams only carry 1 TE in this 10 team QB premium league.

If you can flex a TE I'd rather have Green over Nicks (that's really the worst player you own?).

i think so. Maybe Justin Hunter or Marcus Lattimore. Start 2qb, 2rb, 3wr, 1te

 

[JackReacher]

I've really like Kelce going back to last year to be honest. But with Niklas and Amaro going earlier in the NFL draft this season, I don't really see how he's proven himself to be worth more than them. They are obviously higher rated prospects so I slot him in behind them because he was hurt and because he has done nothing to improve his stock. That said, I do still like him as a TE3.

Guys who draft Niklas simply because of his NFL draft spot don't understand. He's not going to be in a pass catching role and to put him ahead of Kelce in any ranking is a big mistake.

Roles can change fast in the NFL. Especially if a player demonstrates an ability to do something well. I believe that will be the case with Niklas. He's a very good receiver who was learning on the fly a lot in college.

The tight end for me, Im old school. Youve got to block first and catch passes, Arians said.

Thats why I loved (Steelers TE) Heath Miller. I still think Heath Millers the best tight end in the National Football League, not because he catches 90 passes, (but) because he blocks big defensive ends, and he catches about 60-70 passes.

The guys that line up as wide receivers might get tagged as wide receivers. But, you know, tight ends for me block first, catch second.

Most FF players know this and NIklas can be had for cheap because of that. Like Jurb, I am bullish on NIklas prospects. He only played TE for two years and averaged 16 yards per catch last season. That's heady stuff for a guy his size. Allen did just fine as a rookie for Arians at Indy. I think when Arians sees what he has in NIklas, he will exploit it.ETA: We would all be thrilled to add a TE who catches 60-70 passes, especially in a TE premium league

I am not optimistic about Niklas being able to reach your projection target.

Looking at Arians NFL coaching history and use of the TE 1 in his offense-

Heath Miller 1st round 30th overall pick in 2005

2007 16 61tg 47rec 566yds 7TD

2008 14 65tg 48rec 514yds 3TD

2009 16 98tg 76rec 789yds 6TD

2010 14 67tg 42rec 512yds 2TD

2011 16 74tg 51rec 631yds 2TD

Played in 15.2 of the games over 5 seasons.

Averaged 73 targets/season 52.8 rec/season

4 TD/season

Then his use of TE with the Colts and Cardinals-

Dwayne Allen

2012 15 66tg 45 521 3

Rob Housler

2013 57tg 39 454 1

So that averages out to

55.28tg - 66.6tg - 73tg /season

46.6rec - 49.71rec - 52.8 rec/season

3.4 TD/season

The TE1 has averaged 49.71 receptions over the 7 seasons that Arians has been a OC or HC of the offense. If you get rid of the best and worst the TE1 averaged 46.6 catches. If you look just at Heath Miller as your best possible outcome for Niklas he averaged 52.8 receptions.

2013 18 TE had 70 or more targets Rob Housler had 57 targets.

2012 24 TE had 70 or more targets. Dwayne Allen had 66

2011 22 TE had 70 or more targets. Heath Miller had 74

16 TE had 50+ receptions in 2013

18 in 2012

17 in 2011

You could hope for the upside target of Heath Millers best season under Arians in 2009 for Niklas, but it is more likely that he will only provide TE 2 value and a bit below your 60-70 reception target for him.

Good stuff Bia. I wrote 60-70 catches because that was Arians direct quote above. I will work on longer post with my own projections, but right now I'm treating Arians history pattern as a blessing as NIklas is available 3-4 rounds later than someone with his talent should be going,

 

[Biabreakable]

If your league is starting 20 or more TE due to flex options and the PPR premium I can see him having some value. Otherwise not really above replacement level.

Another thing I was thinking about is that Andre Ellington was only used is pass protection on 9% of his passing snaps. There is talk about him increasing his snap count significantly, so he may be asked to block more, but even so not likely as much as some other RB are expected to. So if Ellington is their primary RB that may require the TE to block more in pass protection as a way to compensate.

 

[jurb26]

I've really like Kelce going back to last year to be honest. But with Niklas and Amaro going earlier in the NFL draft this season, I don't really see how he's proven himself to be worth more than them. They are obviously higher rated prospects so I slot him in behind them because he was hurt and because he has done nothing to improve his stock. That said, I do still like him as a TE3.

Guys who draft Niklas simply because of his NFL draft spot don't understand. He's not going to be in a pass catching role and to put him ahead of Kelce in any ranking is a big mistake.

Roles can change fast in the NFL. Especially if a player demonstrates an ability to do something well. I believe that will be the case with Niklas. He's a very good receiver who was learning on the fly a lot in college.

The tight end for me, Im old school. Youve got to block first and catch passes, Arians said.

Thats why I loved (Steelers TE) Heath Miller. I still think Heath Millers the best tight end in the National Football League, not because he catches 90 passes, (but) because he blocks big defensive ends, and he catches about 60-70 passes.

The guys that line up as wide receivers might get tagged as wide receivers. But, you know, tight ends for me block first, catch second.

Most FF players know this and NIklas can be had for cheap because of that. Like Jurb, I am bullish on NIklas prospects. He only played TE for two years and averaged 16 yards per catch last season. That's heady stuff for a guy his size. Allen did just fine as a rookie for Arians at Indy. I think when Arians sees what he has in NIklas, he will exploit it.ETA: We would all be thrilled to add a TE who catches 60-70 passes, especially in a TE premium league

I am not optimistic about Niklas being able to reach your projection target.

Looking at Arians NFL coaching history and use of the TE 1 in his offense-

Heath Miller 1st round 30th overall pick in 2005

2007 16 61tg 47rec 566yds 7TD

2008 14 65tg 48rec 514yds 3TD

2009 16 98tg 76rec 789yds 6TD

2010 14 67tg 42rec 512yds 2TD

2011 16 74tg 51rec 631yds 2TD

Played in 15.2 of the games over 5 seasons.

Averaged 73 targets/season 52.8 rec/season

4 TD/season

Then his use of TE with the Colts and Cardinals-

Dwayne Allen

2012 15 66tg 45 521 3

Rob Housler

2013 57tg 39 454 1

So that averages out to

55.28tg - 66.6tg - 73tg /season

46.6rec - 49.71rec - 52.8 rec/season

3.4 TD/season

The TE1 has averaged 49.71 receptions over the 7 seasons that Arians has been a OC or HC of the offense. If you get rid of the best and worst the TE1 averaged 46.6 catches. If you look just at Heath Miller as your best possible outcome for Niklas he averaged 52.8 receptions.

2013 18 TE had 70 or more targets Rob Housler had 57 targets.

2012 24 TE had 70 or more targets. Dwayne Allen had 66

2011 22 TE had 70 or more targets. Heath Miller had 74

16 TE had 50+ receptions in 2013

18 in 2012

17 in 2011

You could hope for the upside target of Heath Millers best season under Arians in 2009 for Niklas, but it is more likely that he will only provide TE 2 value and a bit below your 60-70 reception target for him.

Quite frankly, I'd take those numbers at Niklas current price. He's going 3 rounds later in rookie drafts than the top TEs and Lyerla is being taken ahead of him every time. I'll take my chances on a guy like Niklas over Lyerla all day. As to the numbers, Miller is clearly the best baseline IMO. Housler missed 3 games last season and his per game targets would have placed him right at 70 given a full season. Allen was sharing targets with another highly drafted TE on his same team, Fleener. Fleener also had 48 targets to add to Allen's 66. So, the trend is that his TEs are in that 70+ target range. I think Niklas is the best natural receiver of any of the guys listed, though. Allen is maybe just as good. Miller was an awesome TE but it was his all around combo of skills that made him so, not really his pass catching. He was decent, but not at the level of other top TEs (in fantasy at least). He was the best blocking TE in the NFL for years.

Now, I don't think Niklas is going to blow up year one and I agree JackReacher might be optimistic on the 60-70 reception thought, though he pulled it from the coaches comments and not so much made a projection. I'd feel safe saying Niklas is in line for at least 60 targets this year, perhaps as many as 75. Even on the low end, 60, I think he makes a decent impact for a rookie, think Allen. Like Allen I think he has the potential to play himself into a larger pass catching role as the season goes on and particularly heading into his 2nd season. Now, unfortunately Allen got injured and Arians wasn't there anymore anyways but all indications were that Allen was going to see a nice bump in targets last year before he went out for the season.

This of course leads me to the final point. There is almost zero chance that Arians is his OC for his entire career. Hell, there is almost zero chance he is past 3 years. So, basing his entire dynasty outlook on his current OC seems a bit silly to me. We should be evaluating what the player is capable of more than what his current OC may or may not use him for. In redraft, sure. In dynasty I think it makes little sense.

 

[Winning IS Everything]

Ladarius Green just went through our entire rookie draft and was not selected. I own Gronk, Eifert, and now Ebron. Is he worth dumping a guy like Justin Hunter or Hakeem Nicks for with that kind of depth already in place? I don't have much faith in Gronk long term, but how do Eifert and Ebron stack up to Green. Kelce was not selected either. Not surprising really as most teams only carry 1 TE in this 10 team QB premium league.

If you can flex a TE I'd rather have Green over Nicks (that's really the worst player you own?).

i think so. Maybe Justin Hunter or Marcus Lattimore. Start 2qb, 2rb, 3wr, 1te

I agree with cstu, as much as I would hate to carry 4 TE I would rather have Green than Nicks. I would not dump Hunter for him though, or your other TE's.

 

[Sabertooth]

YeAh I am trying to trade nicks today for frank gore.

 

[Adam Harstad]

I've really like Kelce going back to last year to be honest. But with Niklas and Amaro going earlier in the NFL draft this season, I don't really see how he's proven himself to be worth more than them. They are obviously higher rated prospects so I slot him in behind them because he was hurt and because he has done nothing to improve his stock. That said, I do still like him as a TE3.

Guys who draft Niklas simply because of his NFL draft spot don't understand. He's not going to be in a pass catching role and to put him ahead of Kelce in any ranking is a big mistake.

Roles can change fast in the NFL. Especially if a player demonstrates an ability to do something well. I believe that will be the case with Niklas. He's a very good receiver who was learning on the fly a lot in college.

The tight end for me, Im old school. Youve got to block first and catch passes, Arians said.

Thats why I loved (Steelers TE) Heath Miller. I still think Heath Millers the best tight end in the National Football League, not because he catches 90 passes, (but) because he blocks big defensive ends, and he catches about 60-70 passes.

The guys that line up as wide receivers might get tagged as wide receivers. But, you know, tight ends for me block first, catch second.

Most FF players know this and NIklas can be had for cheap because of that. Like Jurb, I am bullish on NIklas prospects. He only played TE for two years and averaged 16 yards per catch last season. That's heady stuff for a guy his size. Allen did just fine as a rookie for Arians at Indy. I think when Arians sees what he has in NIklas, he will exploit it.ETA: We would all be thrilled to add a TE who catches 60-70 passes, especially in a TE premium league

I am not optimistic about Niklas being able to reach your projection target.

Looking at Arians NFL coaching history and use of the TE 1 in his offense-

Heath Miller 1st round 30th overall pick in 2005

2007 16 61tg 47rec 566yds 7TD
2008 14 65tg 48rec 514yds 3TD
2009 16 98tg 76rec 789yds 6TD
2010 14 67tg 42rec 512yds 2TD
2011 16 74tg 51rec 631yds 2TD

Played in 15.2 of the games over 5 seasons.

Averaged 73 targets/season 52.8 rec/season

4 TD/season

Then his use of TE with the Colts and Cardinals-

Dwayne Allen

2012 15 66tg 45 521 3

Rob Housler

2013 57tg 39 454 1

So that averages out to

55.28tg - 66.6tg - 73tg /season

46.6rec - 49.71rec - 52.8 rec/season

3.4 TD/season


The TE1 has averaged 49.71 receptions over the 7 seasons that Arians has been a OC or HC of the offense. If you get rid of the best and worst the TE1 averaged 46.6 catches. If you look just at Heath Miller as your best possible outcome for Niklas he averaged 52.8 receptions.


2013 18 TE had 70 or more targets Rob Housler had 57 targets.

2012 24 TE had 70 or more targets. Dwayne Allen had 66

2011 22 TE had 70 or more targets. Heath Miller had 74

16 TE had 50+ receptions in 2013
18 in 2012
17 in 2011

You could hope for the upside target of Heath Millers best season under Arians in 2009 for Niklas, but it is more likely that he will only provide TE 2 value and a bit below your 60-70 reception target for him.

This is good research, but the TE environment has changed significantly since Arians was with Miller in Pittsburgh. Those numbers look pathetic now, but over those 5 seasons, Miller ranked 13th, 13th (despite missing two games), 7th, 18th (two missed games), and 17th in receptions. Over the entire 5-year span, Miller was 8th in receptions and 7th in fantasy points at the position (though if you pro-rate, he was more like the 9th best TE over that span). None of that is really going to blow anybody's skirt up or anything, but that'd be a very strong return on a late rookie pick in a TE-premium, flex-eligible league.

Of course, this all supposes that Niklas is comparable to Miller in the first place.

 

[Biabreakable]

Yes Heath Miller finished pretty well for a TE back in 2009 but as you mention the landscape at the position has changed since then and the price of entry for relevance at TE is higher now than in was back then.

Jurb what do you suggest we look at for trying to figure out the role Niklas will be used in if not the HC historical tendencies?

The base line is NOT 70 targets for TE1 in an Arians offense. The median was 66. The upside is not the baseline.

There are other TE who will get targets. You cannot add the TE1 and TE2 targets together and expect all of those to go to one player.

When will Arians be fired? How do I project for their players after that? Who says that Niklas has any role at all under a new coaching staff?

 

[jurb26]

Yes Heath Miller finished pretty well for a TE back in 2009 but as you mention the landscape at the position has changed since then and the price of entry for relevance at TE is higher now than in was back then.

Jurb what do you suggest we look at for trying to figure out the role Niklas will be used in if not the HC historical tendencies?

The base line is NOT 70 targets for TE1 in an Arians offense. The median was 66. The upside is not the baseline.

There are other TE who will get targets. You cannot add the TE1 and TE2 targets together and expect all of those to go to one player.

When will Arians be fired? How do I project for their players after that? Who says that Niklas has any role at all under a new coaching staff?

I never said not to use his current OCs tendencies in the evaluation. I said it's very relevant in redraft. I said we shouldn't be basing his dynasty outlook totally on his current OC. After all, this is a dynasty titled topic. We should be evaluating the player himself, what he is good at and how his skills could best be used. Like I said earlier, situations change quickly in the NFL. I'm not predicting when Arians will leave. I'm simply saying it's highly probable he does and in the next 3 years or so. Eventually the cream rises to the top. If Niklas proves to be as good a receiver as I and others think, then Arians will use him more. If not Arians, then some other OC likely will. How is the baseline 66 when you are using season totals instead of per game totals? Are we just assuming Niklas misses games? TEs under Arians have averaged 4.69 targets per game. That equates to 75 per season. Even if we remove Miller, assuming he's clearly the best player which is a poor assumption IMO, Allen and Housler averaged 4.39 targets per game. That equates to 70 per season.

I never added the targets of TE1 and TE2. Where are you getting that from? I simply added it as a factor to the discussion. It's important to point out that Allen had competition that Niklas likely won't, yet he still averaged 4.4 targets per game. That is 70 over a course of 16 games and I added nothing to the number.

 

[Biabreakable]

4.69 targets/game for all of the TEs not the TE1

Players do miss games. Niklas is not immune to that. He also is not so talented that you should assume no other TE will get targets/playing time.

I didn't think Niklas was worth ranking pre NFL draft. I think he is primarily a blocker and therefore not a good prospect for FF on pure talent basis. Being drafted by Arians only confirmed that position for me.

 

[eNdblu]

ProFootballTalk @ProFootballTalk
Agent Blake Baratz tells PFT Live that Dr. Maroon has given Jermichael Finley full medical clearance.

 

[jurb26]

4.69 targets/game for all of the TEs not the TE1

Players do miss games. Niklas is not immune to that. He also is not so talented that you should assume no other TE will get targets/playing time.

I didn't think Niklas was worth ranking pre NFL draft. I think he is primarily a blocker and therefore not a good prospect for FF on pure talent basis. Being drafted by Arians only confirmed that position for me.

What? I'm using the numbers you proved for TE1s under Arians. Not an all encompassing TE number. TE1s have averaged 4.69 targets. Even his worst TE1s have averaged 70 targets over a full season. Of course Niklas is open to injury. He's not some terminator style cyborg immune to it. Since when do we factor injury into projects as some reliable standard, though?

It seems you just don't like Niklas and don't want to hear the other side of it based on your final statement. He wasn't ranked at all by you predraft? Really? The #2 rated TE on NFL.com with the following writeup wasn't on your radar a single bit?

"Highly recruited two-way lineman/tight end out of Anaheim (Calif.) Servite, where he won a state title. Nephew of Hall of Famer Bruce Matthews. Played outside linebacker as a true freshman in 2011, when he played 12 games (one start) and collected 20 tackles, one-half for loss and zero sacks. Did not play in the Champs Sports Bowl against Florida State. Converted to tight end and backed up Bengals '13 first-rounder Tyler Eifert in '12 -- started 7-of-13 games and tallied 5 catches for 75 yards (15-yard average) and a touchdown. Took on a more prominent role in '13 when he started all 13 games and produced 32-498-5 (15.6). Elected not to run the 40-yard dash at the NFL Scouting Combine. Did not work out at pro day because of double-hernia surgery performed on March 11.

ANALYSIS

STRENGTHS Outstanding size with a well-proportioned, muscular build. Big target over the middle and in the red zone. Athletic with flexible hips and knees to run the full tight end route tree. Bursts into routes and stretches the seam. Good hands. Has playmaking ability. Lined up flexed and in-line. Good potential as a blocker. Bends his knees, shuffles and fans rushers wide. Works well in tandem and can combo block effectively. Takes care of his body and maintains low body fat. Has NFL bloodlines.

WEAKNESSES Work in progress as an in-line blocker -- lacks ideal base strength, grip strength and overall body power. Bends at the waist and falls off some blocks. Route running needs refinement. Is still learning to use his frame advantageously -- inconsistent traffic player. Lacks elite top-end speed. Average elusiveness and creativity after the catch. Could stand to play with more physicality and become a better finisher.

DRAFT PROJECTION Rounds 2-3

BOTTOM LINE A converted DE/OLB who emerged from the shadow of Bengals 2013 first-rounder Tyler Eifert, Niklas is the latest in a strong line of NFL tight ends produced by Notre Dame. He boasts an intriguing combination of size, athleticism, receiving ability and blocking ability to develop into a bona fide, balanced, No. 1 tight end. Has played tight end for just two years and is clearly ascending.

-Nolan Nawrocki"

As I and others have said, Niklas has tremendous upside at his price. He's got fantastic natural receiving ability and displayed that ability in a short amount of time at the position. Ignoring him just seems silly.

 

[cstu]

Ladarius green seems to be overrated. I don't see how you can extrapolate this great player from his limited production

I think he has a chance to be great, but I had an owner reject Zac Stacy for L. Green straight up. He's one of those guys with nothing but prospects on his team who he considers untouchable. I found that odd considering I'm willing to overpay for Green.

Overpay based on ADP but there are a lot of people (myself included) that believe he eventually loses out to Mason.

 

[cstu]

ProFootballTalk @ProFootballTalk
Agent Blake Baratz tells PFT Live that Dr. Maroon has given Jermichael Finley full medical clearance.

Finley’s agent, Blake Baratz, said on Thursday’s PFT Live that Finley has received clearance from Dr. Joseph Maroon. The Pittsburgh neurosurgeon performed the fusion of the C3-C4 vertebrates in Finley’s spine following a spinal cord contusion suffered during the 2013 season.

Finley still has to be cleared medically by the doctors employed by a team interested in signing him. Baratz said Finley will be making a team visit on Friday; Baratz declined to name the team, citing a request made by the organization for silence. (Hello, Patriots.)

In March, Finley visited the Seahawks. The Packers seem to have ongoing interest in a reunion.

Baratz also explained that Finley ultimately must decide whether he wants to play. With a significant disability policy available if he doesn’t play, Finley may have a Door-Number-1-Door-Number-2-style decision to make regarding the potential financial outcome of not playing and collecting the insurance or playing and getting nothing.

 

[cstu]

I'm using the numbers you proved for TE1s under Arians.

Heath Miller topped 51 catches one time in his five seasons with Arians. He did miss a couple of games twice but he realistically wouldn't been much over 50 in those seasons even if he played all 16.

While Allen/Fleener combined for 71 catches, the Colts were 6th in pass attempts that year and had Avery as the #2. Niklas is at best the third option behind Fitz and Floyd and is also competing for targets with a good receiving RB.

I don't see much about Niklas to be optimistic about - he's not a special talent and not in a great situation. At best he becomes a low end TE1.

 

[jurb26]

I'm using the numbers you proved for TE1s under Arians.

Heath Miller topped 51 catches one time in his five seasons with Arians. He did miss a couple of games twice but he realistically wouldn't been much over 50 in those seasons even if he played all 16.

While Allen/Fleener combined for 71 catches, the Colts were 6th in pass attempts that year and had Avery as the #2. Niklas is at best the third option behind Fitz and Floyd and is also competing for targets with a good receiving RB.

I don't see much about Niklas to be optimistic about - he's not a special talent and not in a great situation. At best he becomes a low end TE1.

Adam already addressed this point for the most part...

This is good research, but the TE environment has changed significantly since Arians was with Miller in Pittsburgh. Those numbers look pathetic now, but over those 5 seasons, Miller ranked 13th, 13th (despite missing two games), 7th, 18th (two missed games), and 17th in receptions. Over the entire 5-year span, Miller was 8th in receptions and 7th in fantasy points at the position (though if you pro-rate, he was more like the 9th best TE over that span). None of that is really going to blow anybody's skirt up or anything, but that'd be a very strong return on a late rookie pick in a TE-premium, flex-eligible league.

Of course, this all supposes that Niklas is comparable to Miller in the first place.

As he says, it's easy to look back on those numbers and scoff but the reality is they were solid in their time, before the TE production we are seeing today.

You say the best he becomes is a low end TE1, while I think that is a ludicrous thing to say, it doesn't matter. If he becomes a low end TE1 at his current price you have a steal.

I'd love to know how a guy who isn't special and only played the position for 2 years managed to get drafted in the 2nd round at a pretty difficult position to learn. Niklas has special ability but needs to refine it. He is basically what people think Lyerla is, only w/o the headaches.

 

[ShaHBucks]

Ladarius green seems to be overrated. I don't see how you can extrapolate this great player from his limited production

I think he has a chance to be great, but I had an owner reject Zac Stacy for L. Green straight up. He's one of those guys with nothing but prospects on his team who he considers untouchable. I found that odd considering I'm willing to overpay for Green.

Overpay based on ADP but there are a lot of people (myself included) that believe he eventually loses out to Mason.

I wouldn't hold my breath

 

[Biabreakable]

Jurb I am not sure how you are calculating 4.69 targets/game. But I will stand by my numbers.

As far as injury is concerned, no I am not projecting for injury. But considering that the sample size I am using is for the most part injury free (Miller missed 4 games out of 80) I don't see a reason to adjust to TPG numbers excluding possible games missed in the future (making the target numbers look better by throwing out the zeros).

I didn't rank Niklas because I think he will primarily be used as a blocker. That is what I have read about him for the most part and that is why I did not rank him.

He does project to be a very good blocking TE and that is why he was drafted in the 2nd round. Pick 52 to be exact. Which is not really the same level of investment from the NFL compared to Heath Miller who was taken in round 1 at pick 30. But I give Niklas some benefit of the doubt as I think the 2014 draft class had higher quality depth of prospects than 2005 when Miller was drafted. Even with that consideration, Niklas is not really at the same level of prospect as Miller, but I used Miller/Arians as the main basis for his use anyways. Just considering draft position Niklas is a step below Miller, particularly as a receiver. So that makes me uncomfortable about making that comparison to him in a best case scenario as you are presenting him.

 

[AngryPatriot]

Finley to New England??!! bump Finley!

the dreamer

 

[JackReacher]

I don't see much about Niklas to be optimistic about - he's not a special talent and not in a great situation. At best he becomes a low end TE1.

He's definitely special in proportion to where he is currently going in rookie drafts. And he will eventually prove to be much more valuable than that.

 

[Phenix]

Why is it so quiet on the Amaro front?

He has as much upside as a guy like Eifert as they will both be in a starting roll and are young.

 

[saintfool]

Why is it so quiet on the Amaro front?

He has as much upside as a guy like Eifert as they will both be in a starting roll and are young.

Dalton>Geno

Green>Decker

2nd Yr TE > Rookie TE

 

[Adam Harstad]

Why is it so quiet on the Amaro front?

He has as much upside as a guy like Eifert as they will both be in a starting roll and are young.

Dalton>Geno

Green>Decker

2nd Yr TE > Rookie TE

21st overall > 49th overall

 

[FUBAR]

Why is it so quiet on the Amaro front?

He has as much upside as a guy like Eifert as they will both be in a starting roll and are young.

Dalton>GenoGreen>Decker

2nd Yr TE > Rookie TE

21st overall > 49th overall

Not necessarily.

 

[FUBAR]

ProFootballTalk @ProFootballTalk

Agent Blake Baratz tells PFT Live that Dr. Maroon has given Jermichael Finley full medical clearance.

Bump Finley

just not too hard

 

[Run It Up]

Does Finley qualify for some sort of vet minimum salary?

 

[Adam Harstad]

Why is it so quiet on the Amaro front?

He has as much upside as a guy like Eifert as they will both be in a starting roll and are young.

Dalton>GenoGreen>Decker

2nd Yr TE > Rookie TE

21st overall > 49th overall

Not necessarily.

Well of course not necessarily. I thought we were talking about general trends. I mean, it's not necessarily true that Dalton is better than Geno or 2nd year TEs are better than rookie TEs, either (see: Jordan Reed). Hell, it's not even necessarily true that A.J. Green is better than Eric Decker.

But yes, in general, Dalton is better than Geno, Green is better than Decker, 2nd year TEs are better than rookie TEs, and guys picked 21st overall are better than guys picked 49th overall.

 

[Run It Up]

Taking a hard and fast stance on players who are drafted higher typically being better. Controversial.